01 Jul 2023 Oscars: Late June Predictions
Since my last predictions there have been a couple of major developments. Firstly, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things featuring Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, and Willem Dafoe (among others) was moved by Searchlight to 2023. Other than being a vehicle for Stone and a possible Picture contender, Lanthimos’ film will undoubtedly be a major tech player when it releases in 2023. There have also been a couple of new releases since late May, most notably, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick. Elvis currently has a 64 Metascore and a 7.8 on IMDb signaling to me that it is a music biopic that does have a chance to get a Picture nod yet needs a few of the contenders to be knocked off for Baz Luhrmann’s film to be considered locked. Other than being a major player for its young star Austin Butler, Elvis, like most Luhrmann films, should perform well with the techs (specifically in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). Top Gun: Maverick quickly became the biggest movie of the year and with its 78 Metascore and 8.6 rating on IMDb, one of the year’s most beloved as well. Now, some people think the film will get a Best Picture nod. But I don’t think so and believe its peak is a Star Wars: The Force Awakens trajectory: a massive blockbuster that missed Picture and all above-the-line categories but took an Editing nod. Joseph Kosinski’s film is definitely the kind of film that can win sound and editing if Elvis, Babylon, or Everything Everywhere All at Once can’t get those inevitably paired awards for themselves.
Other than these developments, nothing much has changed as Killers of the Flower Moon, The Fabelmans, Babylon, and Everything Everywhere All At Once are the remaining films most locked for a Picture nod. The latter film has stayed strong since its April release and its popularity shows no signs of stopping. This is the kind of momentum that I think can last the whole season and can likely help the film nab one above-the-line category win (like when the February released Get Out won Original Screenplay) or maybe propel the film to undeniable future Picture winner status.
Anyways, here are the predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)
The Fabelmans (Universal)
Women Talking (MGM)
Babylon (Paramount)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
Empire of Light (Searchlight)
She Said (Universal)
White Noise (Netflix)
The Son (Sony Classics)
Bardo (Netflix)
Could Jump In: Elvis, Shirley, Next Goal Wins, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar 2, The Whale, Thirteen Lives, Rustin, Maestro, Decision to Leave, Tar, The Banshees of Inisherin, Amsterdam, Asteroid City, Till, Close, I Wanna Dance With Somebody
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Damien Chazelle – Babylon
Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis
BEST ACTOR
Hugh Jackman – The Son
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Austin Butler – Elvis
Michael Fassbender – The Killer
Could Jump In: Adam Driver – White Noise, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST ACTRESS
Margot Robbie – Babylon
Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Regina King – Shirley
Olivia Colman – Empire of Light
Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Carey Mulligan – She Said, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Helen Mirren – Golda, Danielle Deadwyler – Till, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon
Brad Pitt – Babylon
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Jump In: Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Laura Dern – The Son
Jessie Buckley – Women Talking
Jean Smart – Babylon
Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Hong Chau – The Whale, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Empire of Light
Babylon
Bardo
Could Jump In: Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Women Talking
White Noise
She Said
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Son
Could Jump In: The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Pinocchio
Turning Red
Wendell and Wild
Lightyear
Apollo 10 ½
Could Jump In: The Bad Guys
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Babylon
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Fabelmans
Amsterdam
Elvis
Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City, Empire of Light
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Fabelmans
Babylon
Empire of Light
Elvis
Could Jump In: Maestro, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City, Bardo
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Amsterdam
Don’t Worry, Darling
Elvis
Killers of the Flower Moon
Could Jump In: Persuasion, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans, I Wanna Dance With Somebody
BEST FILM EDITING
Babylon
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Elvis
Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Maestro
The Whale
The Batman
Elvis
Blonde
Could Jump In: The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST SOUND
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar II
The Batman
Elvis
Babylon
Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar II
Top Gun: Maverick
Thor: Love and Thunder
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Jurassic World: Dominion
Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Fabelmans
The Batman
Babylon
She Said
Asteroid City
Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Bardo
Decision to Leave
Close
Broker
Triangle of Sadness
Could Jump In: Holy Spider, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita