Not much has changed since last month’s predictions. The two biggest developments of the summer so far are the massive amounts of acclaim that have been lauded on Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Celine Song’s Past Lives. Both will likely remain two of the year’s most beloved come December and while the former is unlikely to eke out anything beyond a Best Animated Feature win, A24’s Past Lives very well could be a Best Picture nominee. Having watched Past Lives, it is definitely accessible and affecting enough to remain in enough Academy members’ hearts come voting time. Outside of Best Picture, expect strong campaigns for Celine Song in Director and Original Screenplay, Greta Lee in Actress, John Magaro in Supporting Actor, and possibly Shabier Kirchner (who also did wonderful work on Steve McQueen’s Lovers Rock) in Cinematography and Grizzly Bear in Original Score.
My most-anticipated films of next month are Oppenheimer and Barbie, both of which have potential to be Picture contenders. Thankfully, we only have to wait three more weeks to see how they are received. If Oppenheimer is even a moderate hit, I think its nomination is secure. It is a biopic from an auteur director with an all-star cast and if it brings audiences, it will be a Picture nominee even if it has a Metascore around 60. Barbie needs to be both a hit and critical success to be a Picture nominee. Yes, it has the power of Gerwig, Robbie, Gosling, and Baumbach behind it but if a comedy wants to receive a Picture nomination, it must be seen as “serious” in some way. Even though 2021’s Don’t Look Up was a comedy it also functioned as a satire on climate change complacency and, as a result, had people around Hollywood championing its “importance”. That’s something Barbie needs and knowing Gerwig, Barbie’s satire (if it ends up going that route) will be a lot more potent than McKay’s thin and toothless attempt at “sociopolitical commentary”.
BEST PICTURE
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)
Oppenheimer (Universal)
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
Past Lives (A24)
The Zone of Interest (A24)
Maestro (Netflix)
Saltburn (Amazon)
Poor Things (Searchlight)
How Do You Live? (Studio Ghibli)
Could Jump In: Anatomy of a Fall (Neon), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), Rustin (Netflix), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Lee (Sky), The Bikeriders (20th Century), The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix), Ferrari (STX), Shirley (Netflix), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), The Killer (Netflix), Monster (Toho), Asteroid City (Focus), May December (Sky Cinema), A Thousand and One (Focus), The Holdovers (Focus), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Barbie (Warner Bros.), Wonka (Warner Bros.)
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Celine Song – Past Lives
Hayao Miyazaki – How Do You Live?
Could Jump In: Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer, Emerald Fennell – Saltburn, Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders, Ellen Kuras – Lee, Michael Mann – Ferrari, David Fincher – The Killer, Greta Gerwig – Barbie, Ari Aster – Beau is Afraid, Wes Anderson – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Todd Haynes – May December, George C. Wolfe – Rustin, Nuri Bilge Ceylan – About Dry Grasses
BEST ACTOR
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Michael Fassbender – The Killer
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Adam Driver – Ferrari, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Austin Butler – The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Anthony Hopkins – One Life, Joaquin Phoenix – Beau is Afraid, Andre Holland – The Actor, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Matt Damon – Air, Song Kang-Ho – Cobweb, Andrew Scott – Strangers, Timothee Chalamet – Wonka
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening – Nyad
Kate Winslet – Lee
Natalie Portman – May December
Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee – Past Lives
Could Jump In: Regina King – Shirley, Carey Mulligan – Maestro, Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Zendaya – Challengers, Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One, Alicia Vikander – Firebrand, Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun, Jessica Chastain – Memory, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders
Colman Domingo – The Color Purple
John Magaro – Past Lives
Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon
Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson, Glynn Turman or Jeffrey Wright – Rustin, Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple, Richard E. Grant – Saltburn, Lakeith Stanfield – The Book of Clarence, Andy Samberg – Lee, Paul Mescal – Strangers, Josh O’Connor or Mike Faist – Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard – Memory, Jude Law – Firebrand, Mahershala Ali – Leave the World Behind, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (I can hope)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple,
Rosamund Pike – Saltburn
Julianne Moore – May December
Could Jump In: Jodie Foster – Nyad, Tilda Swinton – The Killer, Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders, Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Audra McDonald – Rustin, Claire Foy – Strangers, Margaret Qualley – Poor Things, Carey Mulligan – Saltburn, Helena Bonham Carter – One Life
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Past Lives
Saltburn
Drive-Away Dolls
Rustin
May December
Could Jump In: Maestro, Asteroid City, The Holdovers, Beau is Afraid, Monster
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Bikeriders
How Do You Live?
The Zone of Interest
Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Oppenheimer, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Strangers, Lee, Dune: Part Two
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How Do You Live?
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Elemental
Wish
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Could Jump In: Migration, Suzume
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Poor Things
Dune: Part Two
Saltburn
Oppenheimer
Napoleon
Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest, Wonka,
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Saltburn
Poor Things
Napoleon
Could Jump In: Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Maestro, The Killer, The Zone of Interest
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Saltburn
The Color Purple
Barbie
Could Jump In: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, Napoleon, Wonka, Blitz, Lee
BEST FILM EDITING
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Ferrari
Oppenheimer
Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Napoleon, Blitz, Maestro, Poor Things
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Maestro
Barbie
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Wonka
Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, The Bikeriders
BEST SOUND
Dune: Part Two
Oppenheimer
Ferrari
The Color Purple
Maestro
Could Jump In: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part Two
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Oppenheimer
Wonka
Could Jump In: Barbie, The Little Mermaid, The Marvels, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dune: Part Two
How Do You Live?
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Asteroid City
Could Jump In: Elemental, The Zone of Interest, Barbie, Challengers, Lee, Killers of the Flower Moon
