Awards Insights

Tag: predictions

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    How I hate to predict these categories. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. One thing that seems to be constant is that these shorts should have the power to linger past the moment the credits roll. I think The Long Goodbye, like Skin and Two Distant Strangers before it, has that visceral quality and it doesn’t hurt that a big name is behind it (Riz Ahmed). Please Hold, Ala Kachuu – Take and Run, and The Dress also have chances to steal as well.

    Nominees:

    The Long Goodbye

    Ala Kachuu – Take and Run

    Please Hold

    The Dress

    On My Mind

    Pick: The Long Goodbye

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    In the last 10 years, the longest winner in this category was 15 minutes (The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lesmore in 2011) and this year’s frontrunner, Robin Robin, is 32 minutes long. However, I think Robin Robin should be able to win this since it’s family-friendly like most of the last decade’s 10 winners here. Still, Robin Robin’s length does decrease the film’s chances somewhat and Bestia, the most visceral of the films here, has a very good chance to steal and I would pick it if it wasn’t for the big names behind Robin Robin and the fact that I think voters often namecheck people they recognize without watching the films in categories like the shorts.

    Nominees:

    Robin Robin

    Bestia

    The Windshield Wiper

    Affairs of the Art

    BoxBallet

    Pick: Robin Robin

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Three Songs for Benazir fits the mold of many previous winners in this category (specifically Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone and The White Helmets) since it’s also a short film taking place in an Asian warzone. However, I think The Queen of Basketball, with Shaquille O’Neal and Stephen Curry behind it, will win. It’s the film with the most clout behind it and while that oftentimes doesn’t mean anything in these categories, the film also has the highest IMDb score of the three top nominees (Audible – 6.7, ‘Benazir’ – 6.2, and ‘Basketball’ – 7.1) which is more significant of an indicator.

    Nominees:

    The Queen of Basketball

    Three Songs for Benazir

    Audible

    When We Were Bullies

    Lead Me Home

    Pick: The Queen of Basketball

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    After watching The Power of the Dog, I was sure Benedict Cumberbatch was going to win this. I even thought that Will Smith could take GG, CCA, and SAG, but if Cumberbatch at least BAFTA he would win. Well, Will Smith has swept all the precursors and while Cumberbatch still has a chance to steal, it seems to be Smith’s moment.

    Nominees:

    Will Smith – King Richard – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

    Pick: Will Smith – King Richard 

    BEST ACTRESS

    Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart are all the leads of biopics and, as a result, will likely split votes. Among the three, Chastain seems to have the edge since she didn’t have the uncanny-valley makeup of Kidman or the inaccessible-to-some film that Stewart had. As a result of this vote-splitting, Penelope Cruz and/or Olivia Colman could benefit. Cruz seems to have the most passion behind her performance but I’m still unsure about whether enough people saw the film. I’m going to go with precursor leader Chastain though anyone, most likely Cruz or Stewart, can steal.

    Nominees:

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA, SAG

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    Pick: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    2021 – Daniel Kaluuya – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2020 – Brad Pitt – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2019 – Mahershala Ali – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2018 – Sam Rockwell – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2017 – Mahershala Ali – SAG, CCA

    2016 – Mark Rylance – BAFTA

     2015 – JK Simmons – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    Troy Kotsur has so much love right now and he has won three of the four major precursors in this category. Even if CODA doesn’t win Picture, Kotsur should take this though I don’t see CODA becoming our Picture winner without Kotsur first taking this.

    Nominees: 

    Troy Kotsur – CODA – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos

    Pick: Troy Kotsur – CODA

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Ariana DeBose has swept this category so this really should be a no-brainer. However, Kirsten Dunst is beloved by so many and there does seem to be a semblance of a campaign to have the overdue Dunst win on her first nomination. However, I am personally going to stick with DeBose, who’s win in a musical reminds me of when Jennifer Hudson won for Dreamgirls.

    Nominees:

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

    Pick: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

     

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    BEST SOUND

    There’s no way this is not going to Dune. Sci-fi/action Best Picture nominee that’s swept the precursors? Yeah, this is one of the strongest locks of the night.

    Nominees:

    Dune – MPSE, BAFTA, CAS

    West Side Story – MPSE

    No Time to Die

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    Pick: Dune

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    Billie Eilish is an industry darling and No Time to Die is by far the most popular song of the bunch (It has oer five times as many Spotify plays as the second-most played song Dos Oruguitas). Eilish should be able to win though the previously-mentioned Dos Oruguitas and Beyonce’s Be Alive also have chances. Encanto, especially, should not be ignored as a major contender since Lin-Manuel Miranda seems to be one of the most beloved people in the industry and a win here will make him a member of the prestigious EGOT club.

    Nominees:

    No Time to Die – “No Time to Die” – GG, CCA, SCL

    Encanto – “Dos Oruguitas”

    King Richard – “Be Alive”

    Belfast – “Down to Joy”

    Four Good Days – “Somehow You Do”

    Pick: No Time to Die

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Hans Zimmer has a pretty good narrative here. Dune is a passion project of his that he’s been dreaming of since he was young and he experimented extensively with instruments and sounds for the project. Encanto’s Germaine Franco has a chance here (though I think it has a better probability of taking Original Song), as does The Power of the Dog’s Jonny Greenwood.

    Nominees:

    Dune – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    The Power of the Dog

    Encanto – SCL

    Don’t Look Up

    Parallel Mothers

    Pick: Dune

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Because both BAFTA and CCA went with films (No Time to Die and West Side Story respectively) that are not nominees here, this category is really interesting. One stat I want to mention is that every Editing winner since Whiplash has won a Sound award as well, and the only nominees here that are also nominated for Sound are Dune and The Power of the Dog. If you look at the films that have recently been awarded in this category, they are usually centered around music, sports, war, and/or sci-fi action. Dune fits the last two boxes while The Power of the Dog doesn’t hit any. Therefore, Dune should take this.

    Nominees:

    Dune

    King Richard – ACE (Drama)

    The Power of the Dog

    tick, tick…BOOM! – ACE (Comedy)

    Don’t Look Up

    Pick: Dune

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    In the last 20 years, only four winners have won this category without a nomination in Best Director (funnily enough, Villeneuve’s previous film Blade Runner 2049 won Best Cinematography although Villeneuve missed Director).

    2021 – Mank – ASC

    2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

    2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2014 – Gravity – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2013 – Life of Pi – BAFTA, CCA

    Based on past winners, the Academy seems to like very flashy cinematography in this category. For this category, BAFTA and ASC are the most important precursors and Dune’s BAFTA-ASC combination should help it to victory. The last time a film with that combination with that combination lost the Oscar was Children of Men in 2007. The Power of the Dog and ‘Macbeth’ can steal, but this seems like Dune’s to lose.

    Nominees:

    Dune – BAFTA, ASC

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Nightmare Alley

    West Side Story

    Pick: Dune

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Cruella is the overwhelming favorite but two things give me pause. Firstly, every winner in the last 25 years has been set primarily in the 1950s or earlier or was a sci-fi/fantasy film. Secondly, in the last 30 years, only five films have won this award without a Production Design nod as well. Cruella is set in the 1970s. It has the flashiest costumes of the bunch and that alone should push it to the win but don’t be surprised if something like Dune or Nightmare Alley (which both have production design nominations unlike Cruella) steal.

    Nominees: 

    Cruella – CCA, BAFTA, CDG (Period)

    Dune – CDG (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)

    Nightmare Alley

    Cyrano

    West Side Story

    Pick: Cruella

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Since Inside Out in 2015, every winner in this category has won at both CCA and PGA. This year, those two awards have split with CCA going to The Mitchells vs. the Machines and PGA going to Encanto. This is not a category where the Academy makes especially unique or groundbreaking picks (How are Howl’s Moving Castle, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, and Klaus not winners?). They usually go with Pixar films with Disney films like Zootopia, Big Hero 6, and Frozen recently making the cut. Disney’s Encanto is by far the biggest film of the nominees and has enough love and passion throughout the Academy for me to be confident with picking it here (even though Flee or ‘Mitchells’ would be personally preferred).

    Nominees:

    Encanto – GG, BAFTA, PGA

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Annie, CCA

    Flee – Annie (Indie)

    Luca

    Raya and the Last Dragon

    Pick: Encanto

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    This one seems pretty obvious. The Worst Person in the World and Flee both received nominations in other categories, illustrating the support they both have, however, Drive My Car received nominations in Best Picture and Best Director and should easily win this.

    Nominees:

    Drive My Car – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    The Worst Person in the World

    Flee

    The Hand of God

    Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

    Pick: Drive My Car

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    No winner in this category in the past seven years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and the only nominee that fits that criterion is Summer of Soul. And I’m not even mentioning the fact that Questlove’s film has won at CCA, BAFTA, PGA, and ACE. It’s by far the leader in the precursors, has wide industry support, and is undoubtedly one of the most acclaimed films of the year.

    Nominees: 

    Summer of Soul – CCA, PGA, ACE, BAFTA

    Flee

    Attica – DGA

    Ascension

    Writing With Fire

    Pick: Summer of Soul

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The last 10 winners in this category (Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in categories other than Visual Effects in addition to their Visual Effects nominations (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). Only Dune and No Time to Die can boast the same this year. The Academy also prefers CGI over practical effects in this category (with an exception to this trend being 1917), which benefits Dune. I personally believe this is one of the easiest to predict awards of the year since Dune has had this in the bag basically since it was announced.

    Nominees:

    Dune – BAFTA, VES (x4)

    Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES

    No Time to Die

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

    Free Guy

    Pick: Dune

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG

    2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

    2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    As you can see from this list of the last seven winners in this category, CCA and ADG are incredibly important precursors here. This year, Dune won BAFTA, CCA, and an ADG award so from a precursor perspective, it’s the obvious frontrunner. Nightmare Alley received an ADG win as well, but Dune has dominated the precursors in this category and the Academy has chosen enough sci-fi films here (Black Panther and Mad Max: Fury Road) for me to be confident about picking it.

    Nominees:

    Dune – BAFTA, CCA, SDSA, ADG

    Nightmare Alley – ADG

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The Power of the Dog

    Pick: Dune

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

    2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

    The last four winners in this category went to biopic films showcasing famous actors transforming physically into famous figures partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye fits this trend and even though the film didn’t win a MUAH, which is something the last seven winners won, it should still win. 6 of the 7 of these past winners went to films who were also nominated in above-the-line categories (Suicide Squad is the exception but none of its competitors were nominated in above-the-line categories either). This year, The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Dune are the only two nominees that have ATL nominations and since the former has precursor wins, it should win.

    Nominees:

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA

    Cruella – MUAH

    Coming 2 America – MUAH (x3)

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Pick: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

     

  • Current Oscar Predictions 2022 (Updating)

    Current Oscar Predictions 2022 (Updating)

    These will be my predictions that are subject to an update at any point I change my mind about a category.

    BEST PICTURE: The Power of the Dog

    Could Steal: CODA

    BEST DIRECTOR: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Will Smith – King Richard

    Could Steal: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    BEST ACTRESS: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Steal: Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Troy Kotsur – CODA

    Could Steal: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Could Steal: Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Belfast

    Could Steal: Licorice Pizza or Don’t Look Up

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: CODA

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Encanto

    Could Steal: The Mitchells vs. the Machines or Flee

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Dune

    Could Steal: Nightmare Alley

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Dune

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog or The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Cruella

    Could Steal: Dune or Nightmare Alley

    BEST EDITING: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Steal: Dune, Cruella, or Coming 2 America

    BEST SOUND: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Dune

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: No Time to Die

    Could Steal: Encanto

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Drive My Car

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Summer of Soul

    Could Steal: Flee

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Robin Robin

    Could Steal: Bestia

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Long Goodbye

    Could Steal: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run or Please Hold

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Queen of Basketball

    Could Steal: Three Songs for Benazir or Audible

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

    The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between DiCaprio and Bardem. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and while both DiCaprio and Bardem are in top-12 Best Picture contenders, DiCaprio is one of the biggest movie stars of the 21st century and is in the bigger Best Picture contender.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Will Smith – King Richard – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! – GG, CCA, SAG

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth – GG, CCA, SAG

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up – GG, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos – GG, SAG, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano – GG, CCA

    I don’t even know where to begin with this category. I think Lady Gaga and Nicole Kidman are locks but the last three slots seem very wide-open to me. Close behind Gaga and Kidman is Olivia Colman. Like Kidman, Colman has appeared at all the non-juried major precursors, though her BAFTA miss was slightly surprising.

    Speaking of BAFTA, their nominees in this category were chosen by a system where the whole academy voted on two nominees and a jury picked the other six. Lady Gaga was definitely one of those two picks and the other one was most probably Alana Haim, which leads me to believe that she will be nominated here as she was (presumably) second in voting at the BAFTAs

    BEST ACTRESS

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, SAG

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter – GG, CCA, SAG

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – GG, CCA, SAG

    Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Kristen Stewart – Spencer – GG, CCA, Jennifer Hudson – Respect – SAG, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, Ciaran Hinds, and Troy Kotsur are all locks and Bradley Cooper, Jesse Plemons, Jared Leto, Jamie Dornan, and Ben Affleck are the only guys I think could fill those last two slots.

    The first actor I’m going to remove from the five is Ben Affleck. He fits the mold of a big actor those two groups like yet is in a film that is a non-entity in all other categories and misses out on an Oscar nod in the end (Jared Leto for The Little Things, Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, and Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation are examples).

    I am going to put Bradley Cooper in that fourth slot. He is the biggest name in a top 5 Best Picture contender and is cited by many as their favorite part of the film. Even though he only has a SAG nod and is in the film for less than 10 minutes, he seems more secure than Leto, Dornan, or Plemons.

    The next actor I am going to take out is Dornan since I don’t think he has the body of work that Plemons has or the (inexplicable) industry respect that Jared Leto has. That means that last spot is between Leto and Plemons. I think Leto has a chance of getting a Razzie nomination for his performance but it’s also true that the Academy likes these prosthetic-laden roles. However, unlike Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy, Jared Leto’s Razzie-worthy work probably won’t be rewarded since he doesn’t have the overdue narrative that Close seems to have annually. That’s why I am going to go with Plemons, who has been in so many Best Picture nominees and has yet to been nominated for his consistently good work.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Troy Kotsur – CODA – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza – SAG

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Jared Leto – House of Gucci – CCA, SAG, Jamie Dornan – Belfast – GG, CCA, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar – GG, SAG

    The first three, DeBose, Balfe, and Dunst, are locked for nominations and the last two slots are really between three actresses: Ellis, Negga, and Dowd. Ellis and Negga have hit more precursors than Dowd and therefore have better chances of getting included. I was initially hesitant about including Negga but, in the last 10 years, two actresses Kathy Bates and Helen Hunt for the sole nominees for their respective films, and therefore my prediction of Negga being her film’s only nod has precedent.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Caitriona Balfe – Belfast – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Ruth Negga – Passing – GG, SAG, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass – CCA, BAFTA

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    Six films: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, and Don’t Look Up are undeniably locked for Picture nominations. CODA and King Richard follow close behind though I can see there being a world where either CODA or King Richard miss.

    The last two slots are a lot trickier in my eyes and I have honestly spent hours trying to decide on the films that will make those last two slots. There are five films that I think can get those last two slots: tick, tick…BOOM!, Drive My Car, Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley, and The Tragedy of Macbeth.

    One thing I am looking at is what films have passion behind them? I know for sure that Drive My Car has very passionate fans and critics and many international members have passionately supported it. The IMDb scores of these five films are as follows: Drive My Car (7.9), tick, tick…BOOM! (7.6), Nightmare Alley (7.3), The Tragedy of Macbeth (7.3), and Being the Ricardos (6.6). As you can see, after Drive My Car, tick, tick…BOOM! has the highest IMDb score and I feel that supporters of Andrew Garfield’s performance, Broadway lovers, and supporters of Lin-Manuel Miranda will push this film over the hump. Of these five films, it has also hit the most precursors.

    Being the Ricardos seems like a traditional nominee in this category: a biopic with the political turmoil of the subject’s time period in the background. However, the film’s Metascore (60) and mainly it’s IMDb score (6.6) really give me pause about predicting the film though it’s definitely in the 11th slot and could very well get in.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

    Belfast (Focus) – AFI (Special Award), NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

    Dune (Warner Bros.) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

    Licorice Pizza (MGM) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

    West Side Story (20th Century) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

    CODA (Apple+) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

    King Richard (Warner Bros.) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

    tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA

    Drive My Car (Janus) –

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – PGA, Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – AFI, NBR, CCA, The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+) – AFI, NBR

    I think that there are really two possibilities for what can occur here, the DGA five of Campion, Villeneuve, Spielberg, PTA, and Branagh get in or Hamaguchi replaces Branagh. I don’t see anything else happening and I am going to play it safe as I think all of these filmmakers, Branagh included, have enough respect as directors unlike previous people who have missed here like Aaron Sorkin or Peter Farrelly. Even if Drive My Car gets into BP, I think Hamaguchi has a better shot in Adapted Screenplay than here in Director.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Denis Villeneuve – GG, CCA, DGA

    Steven Spielberg – GG, CCA, DGA

    Paul Thomas Anderson – CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Kenneth Branagh – GG, CCA, DGA

    Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – BAFTA

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    Licorice Pizza, Belfast, and Don’t Look Up are all essentially guaranteed nominations in this category. Being the Ricardos has hit all the major precursors and if the film gets into Picture, the film is also guaranteed a nod here. The Oscars seemingly don’t like Sorkin as much as everyone else does (the screenplay snub for Steve Jobs best exemplifies this), but I think that Being the Ricardos, as the competition in this category isn’t as strong as Steve Jobs’ competitors were, will hang on for a nomination. However, it’s also true that in the last 10 years, in both original and adapted screenplay, 2 of the 100 nominees (Joker (59) and Jojo Rabbit (58)) had Metascores that were not green. Both Don’t Look Up (49) and Being the Ricardos (60) have yellow Metascores and while Don’t Look Up is a top 6 Best Picture contender like Joker and Jojo Rabbit, Being the Ricardos is not. Thus, the Sorkin film is vulnerable for a miss and I think Wes Anderson and The French Dispatch have the best chance of taking his spot, however I am going to play it safe and keep Sorkin in.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    Belfast – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Don’t Look Up – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    King Richard – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch – WGA, Mass, Parallel Mothers

    I am pretty confident about this five. The first three especially since all of them will be Best Picture nominees. The last musical to be nominated in adapted screenplay was Chicago in 2003, though it’s also true that since Chicago only two musicals, Les Miserables and La La Land, have been nominated for Best Picture and La La Land was nominated for Best Original Screenplay. Still, West Side Story’s star does seem to be falling somewhat after missing a BAFTA Best Film nomination. If Olivia Colman somehow misses Best Actress, I don’t see it receiving a nomination here but that’s not very likely. If Drive My Car gets in anywhere it’s here and the film has enough support to do that. (Note: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, and Drive My Car were all ineligible at WGA)

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA

    CODA – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    Dune – CCA, WGA, USC, BAFTA

    The Lost Daughter – CCA, USC, BAFTA

    Drive My Car – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: West Side Story – CCA, WGA, tick, tick…BOOM! – WGA