Awards Insights

Tag: predictions

  • Final 2021 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling

    Final 2021 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    The last 10 winners in this category (1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in categories other than Visual Effects in addition to their Visual Effects nominations (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). Only Tenet and Mulan can boast the same this year. All of these films are also critically-acclaimed and are widely-acknowledged to be in the top 30 films of their year. Only Tenet can claim the same as none of its competitors have a Metascore above 60 (except Mulan but its reputation is greatly tarnished after the widespread backlash to the film).

    With that said, the VES award for best Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature is one of the best predictors when it comes to this award and The Midnight Sky triumphed over Tenet there. Still, based on the facts above I am going to go with Tenet here.

    Nominees:

    Tenet – CCA, BAFTA

    The Midnight Sky – VES

    The One and Only Ivan – VES

    Mulan

    Love and Monsters

    Pick: Tenet

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

    2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    In the past six years, every winner in this category has won both an ADG award and a CCA award and Mank should continue that trend. With Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s win last year we know that this category loves to reward nostalgia and Mank is a great source of that with its immaculately-crafted and period-specific sets that give the audience a window into Old Hollywood. I don’t really see how anything can win since Mank has swept all the major precursors.

    Nominees:

    Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG (Period), SDSA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    News of the World

    Tenet – ADG (Fantasy)

    The Father

    Pick: Mank

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

    2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

    Among the past six winners in this category, every single one has won a Makeup and Hairstyling Guild (MUAH) award. The two films that have one this year are Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Pinocchio. Suicide Squad is the only film in the past six years that has won with just MUAH but the other two precursors, BAFTA and CCA, were taken by Florence Foster Jenkins and Jackie respectively so Suicide Squad was not against a film that had swept the precursors. Therefore, I don’t think Pinocchio has enough to pull this off and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should add this category to its total.

    Nominees:

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH

    Pinocchio – MUAH

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Mank

    Emma.

    Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

     

  • Current Predictions

    Current Predictions

    I will constantly update this page which will just hold my current predictions without reasoning.

    BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari

    BEST DIRECTOR: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Steal: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

    Could Steal: Nomadland

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Soul

    Could Steal: Wolfwalkers

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

    Could Steal: Mank

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Emma.

    BEST EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Steal: Sound of Metal or Nomadland

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Hillbilly Elegy or Pinocchio

    BEST SOUND: Sound of Metal

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

    Could Steal: The Midnight Sky

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Soul

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: One Night in Miami

    Could Steal: The Life Ahead or Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Another Round

    Could Steal: Collective or Quo Vadis, Aida?

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: My Octopus Teacher

    Could Steal: Time, Collective, or Crip Camp

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: If Anything Happens I Love You

    Could Steal: Burrow

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Two Distant Strangers

    Could Steal: The Letter Room or Feeling Through

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: A Concerto is a Conversation

    Could Steal: A Love Song for Latasha, Colette, or Hunger Ward

  • SAG Preview: Will ‘Minari’ Surge Here on Its Way to the Oscars?

    SAG Preview: Will ‘Minari’ Surge Here on Its Way to the Oscars?

    The SAG awards will be announced on Sunday (even though the winners have already been notified of their wins since this will be a recorded ceremony) and they are an extremely significant precursor when it comes to the acting awards.

    BEST ENSEMBLE

    Nominees:

    Minari

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    One Night in Miami

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Da 5 Bloods

    In the history of the SAG awards, almost no film that has won this award was not a Best Picture nominee (the sole exception being The Birdcage at the 2nd SAG awards). That means that Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are the two frontrunners. Additionally, no film with a group of all-male nominees has ever won the Best Ensemble award which, precludes The Trial of the Chicago 7 from winning in my view as the cast members that they submitted for this award are all male.

    This leaves Minari as the film that will most likely win come Sunday and this win could edge it closer to being a contender in the Best Picture race. However, I still think that Nomadland has Best Picture essentially locked down.

    BEST ACTOR

    Nominees: 

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    While the SAG voters are known for giving legendary actors their late career due as they did with Glenn Close two years ago, I don’t see how Chadwick Boseman loses this even with Anthony Hopkins in contention. Boseman should be able to win this one easily.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Nominees:

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    To me, this could easily could go to Mulligan, McDormand, or Davis. I could see any of those three winning but both McDormand and Davis have won here in the last 10 years so I am going to go with Mulligan. If Mulligan wins here, I think she is the favorite to win the Oscar but if she doesn’t the winner here will probably win instead. I am a little hesitant about saying that Andra Day will win the Oscar as she was not nominated at SAG and no Best Actress winner, in the era of the SAG awards, was not nominated for a SAG award. Also, in the last 10 years, 8 of the 10 SAG winners in this category ended up winning the Oscar as well.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Nominees:

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Jared Leto – The Little Things

    Like Boseman, Kaluuya has this and the Oscar essentially locked. If he somehow loses this to Odom Jr. or Cohen I will be a lot more hesitant about putting him in at Oscar

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Nominees:

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Helena Zengel – News of the World

    Even though some people are saying that Close could win this, it’s really between Bakalova and Youn for me. Bakalova won CCA and if she wins this, she’ll most probably win Oscar. If Youn wins this, she’ll definitely win Oscar as well since, as of right now, I do not have Minari winning anything at the Oscars and if it wins two awards at SAG it is very unlikely that it’ll be shut out at the Oscars and this category is its best chance.

    BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE

    Da 5 Bloods

    Mulan

    Wonder Woman 1984

    News of the World

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    The last 5 winners in this category are: Avengers: Endgame, Black Panther, Wonder Woman, Hacksaw Ridge, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which were all critically-acclaimed action movies. This year due to the pandemic, these types of movies had their release dates moved back so none of this year’s nominees truly fit the mold of previous winners. Mulan has the kind of melee, physical combat that this category likes but would be an unpopular pick due to the backlash this film received. As a result, I am going to go with Da 5 Bloods as its war scenes could push it over the top.

    The SAG Awards will air on Sunday, April 4

  • FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

    FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

    Let’s just cut right to the chase.

    The first six here seemed all but assured for a nomination and I’m pretty sure the first seven will as well but from there on out it is uncertain. One of Sound of Metal, Judas, or News will make it due to PFCS, One of Da 5 Bloods, ‘Judas, and Sound for AFI. One of ‘Sound’, Da 5 Bloods, or News for CCA. In the past 4 years, every film that has been nominated for both CCA and PGA in this category has gone on to be nominated for Best Picture (except for The Big Sick, which didn’t get nominated because the Academy has a bias against pure comedies). Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, Minari, One Night in Miami, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Sound of Metal all fit this criteria this year so I think they all should get in. Judas and the Black Messiah is having a great final push and as it fits the criteria of an Oscar favorite to a T (I think it would be a top 5 contender if it was just released earlier), it will likely jump into the fray. The Father received a BAFTA nomination for Best Film, but it just doesn’t seem to be getting the support of the guilds which are so important in being successful here.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, SAG, AFI

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA

    Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), PGA, SAG, AFI

    One Night in Miami – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI

    Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI

    Judas and the Black Messiah – PGA, AFI

    Sound of Metal – CCA, PGA, AFI

    Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, GG (Drama), Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – GG (Comedy), PGA, Soul – AFI, First Cow

     

    This one is really between 7 people: Chloe Zhao, David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, Emerald Fennell, Regina King, Lee Isaac Chung, and Spike Lee. Zhao seems like the only nominee who is locked in for a nomination as I could see any one of the others being forgotten on nomination day. Every day Minari’s stock rises and seems more and more like a top three Best Picture contender and if that is the case, Chung will definitely get in. Fennell’s Promising Young Woman could also be a top 3 contender but since her and Sorkin’s films are more screenplay-driven, I could see either of them missing here like Peter Farrelly did for Green Book two years ago. Fincher is likely only getting this nomination on the strength of his legacy as Mank seems to be faltering somewhat. Regina King and Spike Lee could also definitely get in as well. This category is prone to surprises and that usually comes in the form of the director of a serious period drama that the below-the line groups love. So watch out for Spike Lee or Paul Greengrass to surprise.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, DGA

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – GG, CCA, DGA

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, CCA, DGA

    David Fincher – Mank – GG, CCA, DGA

    Could Jump In: Regina King – One Night in Miami – GG, CCA, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Darius Marder – Sound Of Metal, Paul Greengrass – News of the World

     

    The first three here are locked for nominations while I think the last two spots could realistically only be filled by two of three people, Steven Yeun, Gary Oldman, or Delroy Lindo. Oldman has had nods at three of the spotlighted precursors, but Mank seems very vulnerable right now. Steven Yeun got two important precursors but surprisingly didn’t get BAFTA even though his film got a lot of love in the other jury-nominated categories like Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Director. I thought Lindo would get BAFTA and catapult himself to an Oscar nomination with a nomination there, but, even though the man is British and we saw vast diversity in the nominations, he still didn’t get a nom at the BAFTAs. I am going to put Oldman here but something tells me that Lindo will replace him on nominations morning.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Steven Yeun – Minari – CCA, SAG

    Gary Oldman – Mank – GG, SAG, CCA

    Could Jump In: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round – BAFTA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG, BAFTA

     

    This one seems airtight and I really don’t think anybody else has enough momentum to join in here.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, SAG

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, GG, SAG

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – CCA, GG

     

    Kaluuya, Cohen, and Odom Jr. are all locked for a nomination here and I think that Raci is as well. The fifth slot is really the only question mark. I think the last slot is between Bill Murray, Chadwick Boseman, and Mark Rylance. Rylance could get in out of the Academy’s love for The Trial of the Chicago 7. Bill Murray could get in as the Oscars do often give nominations to older veterans (Tom Hanks last year and Christopher Plummer three years ago) who end up being their film’s one and only nomination. And Boseman could get in on the strength of his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and on the outpouring of love for the late star. If neither Murray nor Boseman get in, it will be Rylance.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Leslie Odom Jr. – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Sacha Baron Cohen – CCA, GG, SAG

    Paul Raci – BAFTA, CCA

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Jared Leto – The Little Things – GG, SAG

     

    This is one of the weirder categories as only one actress here (Maria Bakalova) has received nominations from the four main organizations and that too for a performance in a comedy. That said, she definitely deserves all of this recognition and is probably the only person that I think is locked for a nomination. Both Youn Yuh-jung and Olivia Colman are pretty much locked and while Close has received the same nominations as Colman she also received a nomination for Worst Supporting Actress at the Razzies so I am not sure if she will be nominated. Seyfried is slowly falling along with her film but I think she should still have enough strength to hold on to a position here. Foster’s surprise win at the Globes may turn out to be unsuccessful in creating an Oscar nom but her popularity in Hollywood coupled with the fact that this is her first major performance in at least seven years (excepting Hotel Artemis which most people do) should push her to a nomination here.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – BAFTA, CCA, GG (lead), SAG

    Youn Yuh-jung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, SAG

    Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, GG, SAG

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG

    Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG

    Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, GG, SAG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA

     

    Both Mank and Minari were ineligible for nominations at WGA, so there exclusions there are not concerning. The first three I have here I think are locked while the next three slots could be filled by Sound of Metal, Mank, or Judas and the Black Messiah. Mank seems to be falling but it did receive a BAFTA nomination here so I think it should be fine. Sound of Metal is about language itself so it should be especially appealing and would be a great way to give ‘Blue Valentine’ writer Derek Cianfrance his first Oscar nomination.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA

    Minari – CCA

    Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA

     

    The first four here seem essentially locked but there are four films that are realistically vying for the last slot. I am going to go with The White Tiger as it has quietly surged and received a couple of BAFTA nominations. But I could see it very possibly going to First Cow, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, or News of the World. First Cow since no film that has won the New York Film Critics Circle’s Best Film award has ever been completely shut out at the Oscars, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm because of its overt political commentary, and News of the World since it has the highest chance of being nominated for Best Picture among the four films.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland – BAFTA, USC, GG, CCA

    One Night in Miami – USC, CCA, WGA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – USC, CCA, WGA

    The Father – BAFTA, GG, CCA

    The White Tiger – BAFTA, WGA

    Could Jump In: First Cow – USC, CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, News of the World – USC, CCA, WGA

     

    The first three are definitely locked and I am pretty confident about including Over the Moon and The Croods: A New Age but The Willoughbys could surprise and enter the fold.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    The Croods: A New Age

    Over the Moon

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys

     

    The top 3 here Mank, News of the World, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seem locked here. Both Mank and News of the World have received nominations from BAFTA, the Art Directors Guild, and the Critics Choice Awards. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom received noms from both the CCA and the ADG. Tenet did as well, but this category does not nominate contemporary films nearly as much as they do period films so I don’t think it’s locked.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank – ADG, BAFTA, CCA

    News of the World – ADG, BAFTA, CCA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, ADG

    Tenet – CCA, ADG

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ADG

    Could Jump In: Mulan – ADG, Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Emma. – CCA

     

    Nomadland, Mank, and News of the World seem locked here. ASC has the best historical track record here and in the past ten years they have always gotten either 4 or 5 of their picks in the Oscar nominee slate. Since The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a much bigger Oscar contender then Cherry is, I put the former in. Now, the last slot. Personally, I believe that it could really only go to Minari, Tenet, or Judas and the Black Messiah. I am going to go with Minari because it seems like it has widespread industry support. However, I could probably say the same thing about ‘Judas’ and I would be the least bit surprised if it showed up in a bunch of categories on Monday morning. Also, don’t count out First Cow as the Academy might want to award the critical favorite somewhere and as its chances at an Adapted Screenplay nomination are dwindling this may be the place that at lands.

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    Mank – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    News of the World – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ASC

    Minari – CCA

    Could Jump In: Tenet – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA, First Cow – CCA, Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Cherry – ASC

     

    Period films almost always fully occupy this category and that is probably the most important thing to keep in mind here. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and Emma. are all locked for nominations here and Mulan seems well in place as well. I am going to choose Ammonite to fill the last spot here since it is a period piece and BAFTA has a really good track record in this category.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Emma. – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Mulan – CCA, CDG

    Ammonite – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Promising Young Woman – CCA, CDG, The Glorias, The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA

     

    The first three are locked for nominations and I could see next two slots going to The Father, Promising Young Woman, or Minari. I am going to go with Promising Young Woman and Minari as The Father’s star is really falling right now as it didn’t get a nod from the ACE, which it was expected to do.

    BEST EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, ACE

    Minari – ACE

    Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, CCA, Mank – ACE, CCA, Tenet – CCA

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Hillbilly Elegy – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Birds of Prey – MUAH

    Pinocchio – BAFTA, MUAH

    Could Jump In: Emma. – CCA, The Glorias, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey – MUAH

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    News of the World – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    Mank – CAS, MPSE

    Greyhound – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    Soul – BAFTA, MPSE

    Could Jump In: Nomadland – BAFTA, MPSE, Tenet – MPSE, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CAS, MPSE, The Midnight Sky – MPSE

     

    My instincts are telling me to put in Birds of Prey instead of Welcome to Chechnya here but I just can’t bring myself to do it since it did not get any nominations from the Visual Effects Society.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    The Midnight Sky – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    Mulan – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    Welcome to Chechnya – VES

    The One and Only Ivan – BAFTA, VES

    Could Jump In: Birds of Prey, Mank – CCA, VES, Soul – BAFTA, VES

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    News of the World – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Minari – BAFTA, CCA, HMMA, SCL

    The Midnight Sky – CCA, GG, HMMA

    Could Jump In: Tenet, The Little Things

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami – CCA, GG, HMMA

    The Life Ahead – CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, HMMA

    Eurovision Song Contest – CCA, HMMA, SCL

    All In: The Fight for Democracy – HMMA

    Could Jump In: Giving Voice – HMMA, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, HMMA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – SCL, Minari – HMMA

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round – GG, BAFTA, CCA

    Quo Vadis, Aida? – BAFTA

    Two of Us – GG, CCA

    I’m No Longer Here

    Night of the Kings

    Could Jump In: Collective – CCA, Dear Comrades! – BAFTA, La Llorona – GG, CCA

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Time – CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA

    Collective – BAFTA, CEH, IDA

    Crip Camp – CCA, IDA

    Welcome to Chechnya – DGA, IDA

    Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA, PGA

    Could Jump In: The Truffle Hunters – DGA, PGA, IDA, Boys State – CEH, DGA, All In: The Fight for Democracy, My Octopus Teacher – BAFTA, CCA

     

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    The Letter Room

    The Human Voice

    Two Distant Strangers

    Feeling Through

    The Present

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Colette

    Hunger Ward

    A Love Song for Latasha

    A Concerto is a Conversation

    Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    If Anything Happens I Love You

    Out

    Opera

    Burrow

    Kapaemahu

  • February Oscar Nominations Predictions

    February Oscar Nominations Predictions

    Key:

    CCA – Critics Choice Awards

    SAG – Screen Actors Guild Awards

    GG – Golden Globes

    AFI – American Film Institute pick

    WGA – Writers’ Guild

    USC – USC Scripter awards

    As I explain in this post, I think there will be eight nominations in this category this year and my eight picks are, as of right now, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Mank, Minari, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If Judas and the Black Messiah ends up with a PGA nomination, I think it will be the 9th nominee.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama), AFI

    Nomadland – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG (Drama)

    Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    Minari – CCA, SAG, GG (Foreign), AFI

    One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI

    The Father – GG (Drama)

    Could Jump In: Sound of Metal – CCA, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Soul – AFI, First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, The Mauritanian

     

    While I do think the backlash to Spike Lee not getting a nomination at the Globes could vault him to a spot here, Emerald Fennell looks poised to take her position here on the strength of Promising Young Woman’s upward surge.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – CCA, GG

    David Fincher – Mank – CCA, GG

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG

    Regina King – One Night in Miami – CCA, GG

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG

    Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – CCA

     

    If Lindo gets BAFTA he will be nominated but if Yeun does he will get nominated because I think it is very likely that the foursome of Boseman, Hopkins, Ahmed, and Oldman will be nominated at BAFTA as well (especially because three of them are British).

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Gary Oldman – Mank – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA

    Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari – SAG, CCA, Tom Hanks – News of the World – CCA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG (Drama), Ben Affleck – The Way Back – CCA, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    This slate of five seems essentially locked as nobody on the outside looking in seems like they have enough to jump in. However, this could be that surprise category where someone like Sidney Flanigan jumps in at the last second.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG (Drama), CCA

    Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie – CCA, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy – SAG, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA

     

    Even though I am not sure about his film getting nominated for Best Picture, Daniel Kaluuya, I think, will win this as his performance as exactly the kind of performance the Academy likes to award in this category. The question here is who will be the two men that will fill the last two spots? Well, I think Raci should be getting one of them and it will be between Murray and Boseman to fit the last spot. Apple+ really has only one thing to campaign this Oscar season and that is Bill Murray in On the Rocks so going by that I’m going to place Murray here instead of Boseman.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, SAG, GG

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, GG

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, SAG, GG

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal – CCA

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG

    Could Jump In: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, Jared Leto – The Little Things – SAG, GG

     

    SAG does have a habit of nominating young people in this category so I expected Zengel to get a nomination there. However, she also received a nomination from the Globes so maybe she has more of a chance than I had thought. But I am still going to hold off on picking her just yet.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, SAG, GG

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, SAG, GG

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – CCA, SAG

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA, SAG, GG (in lead)

    Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World – SAG, GG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah

     

    Trial and the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman have both received nominations at Critics Choice, the Golden Globes, and from the WGA. Mank received nods from the Globes and the CCA and was not eligible for the WGA. Minari and Soul were also not eligible for nomination from the WGA.

    The dilemma with this category is that I am pretty sure about the first four receiving nominations but the last slot could be filled by either Soul, Judas and the Black Messiah, or Sound of Metal. Sound of Metal received nods from both the CCA and the WGA. I am going to go with ‘Judas’ because it is the biggest Best Picture contender of the three, but Sound of Metal and Soul both have a great chance here. Also, I still have a small feeling that Judas and the Black Messiah can win Best Picture (especially after watching it) and it needs this nomination to do that.

    But it is also true that there is usually at least one film in the Original Screenplay nominated five that does not get a Best Picture nod.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG, WGA

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, WGA

    Mank – CCA, GG

    Minari – CCA

    Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA

    Could Jump In: Soul, Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs – WGA

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland – CCA, GG, USC

    One Night in Miami – CCA, USC, WGA

    The Father – CCA, GG

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, USC, WGA

    First Cow – CCA, USC

    Could Jump In: News of the World – CCA, WGA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, The White Tiger – WGA

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul – GG

    Wolfwalkers – GG

    Over the Moon – GG

    Onward – GG

    Bombay Rose

    Could Jump In: The Croods: A New Age – GG, No. 7 Cherry Lane, The Willoughbys, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank – CCA,

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

    News of the World – CCA

    Tenet – CCA

    Emma. – CCA

    Could Jump In: Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mulan

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    News of the World – CCA

    Tenet – CCA

    Minari – CCA

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, One Night in Miami, First Cow, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Emma. – CCA

    News of the World

    Mulan – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Promising Young Woman – CCA, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, The Glorias, The United States vs Billie Holiday

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA

    Nomadland – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Tenet – CCA

    Sound of Metal – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Father – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Promising Young Woman

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

    Hillbilly Elegy – CCA

    Emma. – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Pinocchio, The United States vs Billie Holiday – CCA, Promising Young Woman – CCA

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Mank

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet – CCA

    The Midnight Sky – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Mulan – CCA

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Welcome to Chechnya, Soul, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul – CCA, GG

    Mank – CCA, GG

    News of the World – CCA, GG

    Minari – CCA

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Tenet – GG, CCA, The Midnight Sky – GG, CCA, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Little Things

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami – GG, CCA

    The Life Ahead – GG, CCA

    Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA

    All In: The Fight for Democracy

    Eurovision Song Contest – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, Minari, Giving Voice

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round – CCA, GG

    Collective – CCA

    Two of Us – CCA, GG

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    Night of the Kings

    Could Jump In: La Llorona – CCA, GG, I’m No Longer Here, Dear Comrades!

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Time – CCA

    Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA (win)

    Collective

    Crip Camp – CCA

    Boys State

    Could Jump In: Welcome to Chechnya, All In: The Fight for Democracy, The Truffle Hunters

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    If Anything Happens I Love You

    Burrow

    Out

    Kapaemahu

    Opera

    Could Jump In: The Snail and the Whale, To Gerard

     

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    The Letter Room

    The Human Voice

    Two Distant Strangers

    White Eye

    Da Yie

    Could Jump In: Feeling Through, The Present

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Colette

    Hunger Ward

    A Love Song for Latasha

    What Would Sophia Loren Do?

    The Speed Cubers

    Could Jump In: Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa, A Concerto is a Conversation, Do Not Split

  • Evaluating the Race After Critics Choice Nominations

    Evaluating the Race After Critics Choice Nominations

    The Broadcast Film Critics Association finally released their nominations and with them in mind I will try to take a deeper look into what probably will be nominated in Picture

    Picture

    Now that News of the World has finally received a nomination, there are now 13 films in total that can get a Best Picture nomination (Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7) and unless PGA picks something crazy in early March, these will be the top 13 contenders.

    Let’s break them down:

    Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI

    The Father – GG (Drama)

    Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI

    Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), SAG, AFI

    News of the World – CCA

    Nomadland – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG (Drama)

    Soul – AFI

    Sound of Metal – CCA, AFI

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG (Drama), SAG, AFI

     

    Based on this, The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the most locked for a Best Picture nomination.

    If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, The Big Sick, The Florida Project, Sully, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens are the only films in the last five years that have missed a Best Picture nomination after getting nods at both CCA and AFI. What do these films have in common?

    Well, all of them except The Big Sick did not end up getting nominated at the Producers Guild Awards. And The Big Sick did not get picked by the Oscars in the end because of their storied bias against comedies.

    So essentially, if any one of Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 get snubbed by the PGA, their Best Picture chances are slightly in jeopardy. I personally think that Sound of Metal will be the one to drop and the final Best Picture slate will be the remaining seven plus Promising Young Woman.

    Also, if Judas and the Black Messiah gets a mention from the PGA it’ll be added to slate as well.

  • Penultimate Golden Globes Nominations Predictions

    Penultimate Golden Globes Nominations Predictions

    I’m only going to be showing my predictions for the film section of the Golden Globes but once I give you my final Golden Globe nominations predictions in a week or two, television will be there as well.

    The thing to remember about the Golden Globes is that they like to award big celebrities and young up-and-comers. So a lot of veteran character actors who delivered great performances this year will likely get ignored by them.

    BEST DRAMA

    Nomadland

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Promising Young Woman

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, The Father, Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, Sound of Metal

    BEST MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    Hamilton

    The Prom

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Palm Springs

    On the Rocks

    Could Jump In: Emma., French Exit, The King of Staten Island, Let Them All Talk, Personal History of David Copperfield

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Fincher – Mank

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Florian Zeller – The Father, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie

    Could Jump In: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods, Steven Yeun – Minari, John David Washington – Malcolm & Marie, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Tom Holland – Cherry

    BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY/MUSICAL

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Meryl Streep – The Prom

    Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma.

    Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Could Jump In: Cristin Milioti – Palm Springs, Emily Blunt – Wild Mountain Thyme, Millie Bobby Brown – Enola Holmes, Philippa Soo – Hamilton, Rachel McAdams – Eurovision Song Contest

    BEST ACTOR – COMEDY/MUSICAL

    Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Andy Samberg – Palm Springs

    Dev Patel – Personal History of David Copperfield

    Pete Davidson – The King of Staten Island

    Leslie Odom Jr. – Hamilton

    Could Jump In: Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton, Jamie Dornan – Wild Mountain Thyme, Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round, Will Ferrell – Eurovision Song Contest, Keanu Reeves – Bill and Ted Face the Music

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari, Nicole Kidman – The Prom, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Candice Bergen – Let Them All Talk, Renee Elise Goldberry – Hamilton

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Paul Raci – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Daveed Diggs – Hamilton

    BEST SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    Mank

    Promising Young Woman

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, On the Rocks, Soul, Minari

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    The Willoughbys

    Could Jump In: The Croods: A New Age, Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Earwig and the Witch, Trolls World Tour, Connected

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

    Minari

    Another Round

    The Life Ahead

    Night of the Kings

    Collective

    Could Jump In: I’m No Longer Here, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Notturno, Charlatan

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Mank

    Tenet

    Soul

    News of the World

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, Ammonite

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    The Life Ahead

    One Night in Miami

    Over the Moon

    The Prom

    The Outpost

    Could Jump In: Miss Americana, Trolls World Tour, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Trial of the Chicago 7, the One and Only Ivan

     

  • Late December Oscar Predictions

    Late December Oscar Predictions

    The critics’ awards have just started up and while they likely will not influence the Oscars as much as they have done in the past (because this year’s ceremony is in April and that is pretty far off from the critics’ awards which happen mostly in January), they still provide an indication of what films the critics will be pushing this Oscar season. This year, Nomadland (which was expected) and First Cow (less expected, but still expected) have performed very well at these early critics’ awards. Da 5 Bloods has also benefited greatly from these awards and I feel more confident about having the Spike Lee feature in my Best Picture lineup. Mank, however, has not gotten the success expected for it in these awards and while it definitely will get a Best Picture nominations its chances of winning are sliding slowly.

    Since most of these critics’ awards are only considering movies that came out in the 2020 calendar year, films that will likely release in 2021 like Judas and the Black Messiah are not eligible. However, I think that if ‘Judas’ is as good as I hope it will be and receives at least an 86 Metascore once it releases it has a great shot at winning Best Picture. That’s because, as it is right now, there are no films that feel like true frontrunners. No film so far has hit the timely and conventionally entertaining combination a film needs to have to win Best Picture. I think ‘Judas’ could have that combination but I’m going to stay cautious on it until it releases.

    But, if nothing changes it will be between Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as they both have critics’ support (Nomadland much more than ‘Trial’, but still), timeliness or relevance, and accessibility to wide audiences.

    I am going to be talking a lot about the critics’ awards that are happening all around the country throughout the post, however I think it is important to mention that they have a diminished influence on the final outcome due to the Oscars being moved later in the year. So they are less relevant and while they still will likely provide an indication of where the Oscars will go I think it is important to exercise caution when using them to create your predictions. Also, only four significant critics’ bodies have released their winners at the time of this post so there are more than a dozen more to go and therefore the people who have won so far may not be a great indication of who the critics’ bodies are going to align towards when all is said and done.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    Minari

    One Night in Miami

    The Father

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Soul, Promising Young Woman, First Cow, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, Pieces of a Woman, The Mauritanian, Tenet, Sound of Metal, The Prom, Another Round

     

    Chloe Zhao seems like the clear frontrunner at this point. However, even though Mank has not received as much love as most thought it would, Fincher still has that overdue narrative going as he has never won an Oscar in his storied and prolific career. Still, Zhao has received the most acclaim this year by far so I think she has the best shot at winning this.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Florian Zeller – The Father, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Kelly Reichardt – First Cow, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Kornel Mondruzco – Pieces of a Woman

     

    Chadwick Boseman seems like a lock to win this category even though we are four months away from the ceremony. His performance is being lauded throughout the industry as spectacular and nobody else in this category is getting nearly the amount of recognition as he is so I don’t really see something happening here unless something changes drastically on the road to the Oscars.

    I also think Hopkins, Lindo, and Oldman are pretty much cemented for nominations as they all are getting notices from critics (especially Lindo, who has won Best Actor at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, and Hopkins who has won Best Actor at the Boston Film Critics Circle Awards). At this stage, the fifth spot is, in my mind, between Steven Yeun for Minari and Riz Ahmed for the Sound of Metal. Since Minari is a film that I think will get a Best Picture nomination I think Yeun will get in but do not count out Ahmed as he delivers a powerful turn in Sound of Metal.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, Colin Firth – Supernova

     

    Viola Davis is one of the best actors of her generation and that power is really expressed in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom where, according to the critics’ consensus, she gives one of her career-best performances. Frances McDormand also has been getting a lot of positive attention for her performance in Nomadland and while I don’t see her winning this I think that she should not be counted out.

    Of the four significant critics’ groups that have released their winners so far, Sidney Flanigan has won two of them. What this shows is that critics are trying to make sure that Academy voters do not forget Never Rarely Sometimes Always and its lead actress. Promising Young Woman’s wins in Best Actress and Best Screenplay at Los Angeles also continue that trend of critics reminding Academy voters of films that were talked about pre-COVID.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

     

    This race is by far the most wide-open of the acting races. I don’t feel as confident about any of these men getting a nomination as I do about the frontrunners in most other categories. I feel like this category is very subject to change, but I do think that if Judas and the Black Messiah ends up as good as I hope it will be and becomes a contender for a Best Picture win, Kaluuya might win this category for his portrayal of Fred Hampton.

    The four critics’ awards have gone to three different people here: Chadwick Boseman for Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci has won two for Sound of Metal, and Glynn Turman won one today for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Of these three, I think that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will be the bigger Best Picture player so I think that Turman will receive his first Oscar nomination for his performance this year. However, don’t be surprised if Boseman becomes a double nominee or if Raci breaks into the top five.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci – Sound of Metal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    Even though Mank is falling off a little bit, Amanda Seyfried is staying strong. Her performance has continued to be talked about and while she has not won a critics’ group award yet she was the runner-up at both Boston and Los Angeles which is good for a performer from a more mainstream film like Mank.

    Minari’s Yuh-Jung Youn and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’s Maria Bakalova have split the critics’ awards so far, but I am hesitant to add Bakalova to the top five due to the Academy’s long-standing bias over comedic acting. However, the quality of her performance became national news due to its victim so she might be in the top five by next month.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

    Could Jump In: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite, Swankie – Nomadland, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Ariana DeBose – The Prom

     

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 is an Aaron Sorkin film and as it is also a big Best Picture player I think it is virtually locked for a nomination. Mank also seems like a lock here and the screenplay being from David Fincher’s late father, Jack Fincher, can only help its chances.

    Promising Young Woman and Never Rarely Sometimes Always have both one screenplay award a piece but I think that Promising Young Woman is more likely to get a nomination due to its scathing social commentary.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Minari

    Soul

    Promising Young Woman

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Palm Springs, On the Rocks, The Forty Year-Old Version, Sound of Metal

     

    While Nomadland isn’t really a “talky” film there are many profound nuggets of wisdom found throughout the screenplay and that could push it through. The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami are all based on plays so they may be more appealing in this category as voters love the powerful monologues seen throughout theater-based films.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    The Father

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    One Night in Miami

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: First Cow, Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, The White Tiger, The Mauritanian, The Prom

     

    Even though Wolfwalkers has one most of the critics’ awards, Soul is very critically-acclaimed and is an original Pixar movie so it’s hard to see this going to Wolfwalkers.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Over the Moon

    Earwig and the Witch

    Onward

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Rumble

     

    This award often rewards nostalgia like it did last year when Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won here. Mank’s impeccable recreation of 1930’s Hollywood is going to appeal to that nostalgia and the film seems like an early lock in this race.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    News of the World

    Mulan

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, Emma, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Emma

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: News of the World, One Night in Miami, Ammonite, The Prom, The World to Come

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    The Prom

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Emma

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Sound of Metal

    Mank

    Soul

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, The Outpost, The Invisible Man, Wonder Woman 1984

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Midnight Sky

    Tenet

    Wonder Woman 1984

    Mulan

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Could Jump In: The Invisible Man, Birds of Prey, Greyhound, Mank, Greenland

     

    I feel like Soul might be the only locked nomination in this category as Soul has been getting love from the critics’ groups (it won at both Los Angeles and Boston Online) and it is rare that an animated film gets recognition in any category from these critics’ groups.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Mank

    The Midnight Sky

    News of the World

    Minari

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Let Them All Talk

     

    Diane Warren has received 11 Oscar nominations without a win and with a relatively weak slate in this category this may be her year to finally win the prize as she wrote a song for The Life Ahead.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    One Night in Miami

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Trolls: World Tour

    Could Jump In: The Prom, The Outpost, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The One and Only Ivan, Eurovision Song Contest

     

    Another Round did amazing at the European Film Awards and even though it is a slightly unconventional winner here it is from the respected Thomas Vinterberg who has directed the masterpieces Festen and The Hunt. And even though critics have not quite taken to it at the level they have for past winners, (its Metascore is a 79, and while that is pretty good it is a far cry from the past two winners in this category: last year’s Parasite at 96 and 2018’s Roma at 96 as well) I think it is the frontrunner as of now. Still, I think that it needs a little bit more for it to be in the Best Picture nomination conversation like past winners have been.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round

    Collective

    Night of the Kings

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    I’m No Longer Here

    Could Jump In: A Sun, The Auschwitz Report, My Little Sister, Charlatan, Notturno, Never Gonna Snow Again

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Totally Under Control

    John Lewis: Good Trouble

    Crip Camp

    Collective

    Dick Johnson is Dead

    Could Jump In: Boys State, Time, All In: The Fight for Democracy, MLK/FBI, Welcome to Chechnya

  • Early August Oscar Predictions

    Early August Oscar Predictions

    Since my last post, the Toronto International Film Festival and others have revealed their lineups, which greatly affects the Oscar race.

    Here are some TIFF stats to show you how predictive this festival is:

    Even though this year is crazy and trends will likely not be followed, the winner of the TIFF’s Grolsch People’s Choice Award has been nominated for Best Picture every year since 2011 and in 9 out of the last 10 years.

    3 out of the last 10 winners won Best Picture (The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, and Green Book).

    The festival also gives 2nd and 3rd place awards and in the last 5 years at least one of those runner-ups go on to get a Best Picture nomination as well.

    In fact, in the past 10 years, 3 of those runner-ups (Argo, Spotlight, and Parasite) have gone on to win Best Picture.

    In 2019, 5 of the 9 eventual Best Picture nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 3 of the 8, in 2017, 5 of the 9, in 2016, 5 of the 9, and in 2015, 4 of the 8.

    Out of the last 10 Best Picture winners, 9 went to TIFF (the exception being 2014’s Birdman)

    Obviously this festival has a great track record and of the 16 films in this year’s Gala and Special Presentations, I have chosen 4 in my Best Picture nominations (Nomadland, Ammonite, One Night in Miami, and The Father). As this year’s slate consists of a lesser amount of films than it usually does, there is a good chance that only 2 or 3 films at TIFF get a Best Picture nomination this year.

    Other than the TIFF-related changes, I have not shifted much in my Best Picture predictions, save for an increase in Nomadland’s placement as it is playing at TIFF and opening the New York Film Festival (which The Irishman did last year)

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Ammonite (Neon)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix), Soul (Pixar), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), Tenet (Warner Bros.), Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.), Stillwater (Focus), Minari (A24), C’mon C’mon (A24), On the Rocks (Apple+), Respect (MGM), Annette (Amazon), Good Joe Bell (None yet)

     

    Aaron Sorkin is probably the most significant climber this month as his ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’ has been moved to Netflix, which means it is certain to be released. Even though, Sorkin is best known for being a screenwriter, if his film is a top 3 contender he will most likely get nominated for Best Director as well.

    Greengrass and Spielberg have the greatest chance of entering the fold as Sorkin and Villeneuve are especially vulnerable to drop.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Regina King – One Night in Miami, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Leos Carax – Annette

     

    With The Father’s entry into the Best Picture fold, Anthony Hopkins solidifies his place in the nominations.

    Redmayne, Goree (playing Cassius Clay, better known as Muhammad Ali), Phoenix, and Kaluuya all have great chances to jump in the fold.

    BEST ACTOR

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Eli Goree – One Night in Miami, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Adam Driver – Annette

     

    This is one of the more stacked categories as the top 7 contenders all seem like great choices. I had Pfeiffer winning in past months but if her film does not get any traction (which is possible) she will not get nominated, but if French Exit is even a Top 20 Best Picture contender, she could win.

    I have become increasingly confident about Viola Davis’ chances as I have been looking into the cast and crew of her film and the film will likely be good. If it’s good, Davis will definitely get a nomination and if it’s great she will probably win.

    I could easily see Rachel Zegler and Jessica Chastain cracking the top 5, I just need more information to come out about their films.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Could Jump In: Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Sidney Flanigan – Red, White, and Water

     

    Prior to June, I had Chadwick Boseman getting nominated in this category for Da 5 Bloods, but once that film came out the prospect of that happening became less likely. However, he might get a nomination for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom as he is playing off Viola Davis, which is a boon for any actor.

    The images for The Trial of the Chicago 7 did not really clear up speculation on who is going to be the lead so I still have no idea what to do with that amazing cast of actors. Cohen and Strong were featured in many of the images released by Netflix and probably have some of the larger roles so I put them in. Abdul-Mateen, Odom Jr. (he’s playing Sam Cooke), Grant, Stanfield, and Ben-Adir (he’s playing Malcolm X) are all people I could see joining the top 5 soon.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Jeremy Strong – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, LaKeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Pelphrey – Mank, Richard Jenkins – The Humans, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    Like Anthony Hopkins, Olivia Colman’s likelihood of being nominated rose with the announcement of The Ftaher playing at TIFF. Saoirse Ronan and Glenn Close firmly claim the top spots, while Rashida Jones and Abigail Breslin both have a good chance to receive a nomination.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Could Jump In: Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    Ammonite

    Soul

    Could Jump In: Stillwater, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Tenet, Annette, Judas and the Black Messiah

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Hillbilly Elegy

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Dune, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Father, Next Goal Wins, French Exit, Those Who Wish Me Dead

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Over the Moon

    Onward

    Aya and the Witch

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: Wolfwalkers, The Willoughbys, The Croods 2, Connected, Trolls: World Tour

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Tenet

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, Respect, News of the World, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    Nomadland

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Hillbilly Elegy, Annette

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Dune

    Mank

    Respect

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Eternals, Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, Emma

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Mank

    Tenet

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, West Side Story, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Stillwater

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    Dune

    Respect

    Eternals

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Louis Wain, The Green Knight

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    West Side Story

    News of the World

    No Time to Die

    Could Jump In: Eternals, Respect, Da 5 Bloods, Annette, Greyhound

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Eternals

    Black Widow

    Wonder Woman 1984

    Could Jump In: No Time to Die, Sonic the Hedgehog, Greyhound, The Secret Garden, Bloodshot

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Tenet

    Mank

    Soul

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Annette, Ammonite, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Over the Moon

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Soul

    Annette

    The Prom

    Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    Could Jump In: Over the Moon, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

     

    TIFF is even more predictive of the International Feature Film category

    In 2019, 4 of the 5 nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 5 of the 5, in 2017, 5 of the 5, in 2016, 2 of the 5, and in 2015, 3 of the 5.

    In the last 5 years, every winner in this category has gone to TIFF.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round (Druk) – Denmark

    Summer of 85 – France

    New Order – Mexico

    Quo Vadis, Aida? – Bosnia and Herzegovina

    The Story of My Wife – Germany

    Could Jump In: True Mothers – Japan, Three Floors – Italy, The Marco Effect – Denmark, One Second – China, Aya and the Witch – Japan, On a Half Clear Morning – France, Gjirokastra – Russia

  • Late July Oscar Predictions

    Late July Oscar Predictions

    It is late July and the Oscars are as uncertain as they have ever been. Tenet has been delayed indefinitely, theaters are in flux, and the coronavirus shows no signs of stopping.

    Anyhow, here are my predictions for late July:

    Mank is probably in the best place that a film this year can be in as it was already going to be released through a streaming service and therefore theater closures will not affect it. The film, on paper, looks like a quintessential “Oscar” film. It is set in the past (1941), it is a story about Hollywood (it is about the making of Citizen Kane, widely-known as the greatest film of all-time), and Mank is made by a director that is overdue for an Oscar win (David Fincher).

    I have Ammonite high up, even though I believe that it is very unlikely that it will win, as the film got notices at both the Cannes and Toronto Film Festivals. It will probably be a mid-level Best Picture nominee that has a shot to win in the acting categories.

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 has been moved to Netflix (as director Aaron Sorkin wanted it released before the election in November) and that gives it secure release date in these uncertain times. The cast of this film is stacked (Eddie Redmayne, Sacha Baron Cohen, Mark Rylance, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Yahya Abdul-Mateen. and Jeremy Strong are in it with many more well-known actors) and it has a contemporary relevance that could carry it to the top come Oscar night.

    Nomadland looks great and I could see it being a film that does well at the Film Independent Spirit awards and gets nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.

    West Side Story is a remake but it is also a Spielberg film and it should be great. As the film will likely comment on race relations in America it is also very relevant in the current moment.

    Da 5 Bloods is the only one of these films that has been seen and critics love it. The film is very timely and Spike Lee should stay in the Oscar’s good graces after his Adapted Screenplay win two years ago.

    Dune is one I am unsure about as it is an event film and will be released in theaters before it hits streaming. It has not been moved from its December 18th release date and it could very well be released in the winter but these are times where pure guesswork is all we can do and everything is uncertain. However, there is a high enough chance that theaters will reopen in some capacity by December so I remain hopeful about Dune

    Tenet was initially slated for a July 14th released date, then it was moved to July 28th, and then finally to August 12th. The newest reports state that it has been delayed indefinitely and whether or not that means it will be released this year is anyone’s guess. I don’t see this film being a winter release, but I think it will be a staggered release as theaters will reopen at different places around the world.

    Soul is set for a Thanksgiving week release and it should make that but nobody can be sure of that. The film looks a lot like Pixar’s 2015 film Inside Out (which I loved) and while that film did not get a Best Picture nomination the Corona-reduced 2020 slate should work to its advantage.

    This last slot is a hard one to fill for me. News of the World looks like it will be a great Tom Hanks vehicle, but it is still a Western and while anti-Western bias at the Oscars is not as bad as it was in the 50s and 60s, Westerns are not widely considered Oscar worthy in most cases. I would have had Hillbilly Elegy here if The Trial of the Chicago 7 had not moved to Netflix as I believe that the Academy selecting 4 Netflix films is unlikely. However, I still think it has a pretty good chance to receive a nomination and it should also do well in the acting categories. A lot of people are predicting Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch to get a Best Picture nomination but the fact that it is an anthology film is a little concerning as anthologies hardly ever get Best Picture nominations. Stillwater is directed by Tom McCarthy (whose film Spotlight won Best Picture in 2016), but is a genre film (it’s a thriller) and there are usually only 2 of those nominated each year and Dune and Tenet already fit that category..

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank

    Ammonite

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    West Side Story

    Da 5 Bloods

    Dune

    Tenet

    Soul

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, The French Dispatch, Stillwater, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Annette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Minari, The White Tiger, The Father

    David Fincher (Fight Club, The Social Network) has never won an Oscar and this year seems like the year the Academy will remedy their mistake as Fincher’s film Mank seems like a film that the Academy will go crazy over.

    Nomadland looks amazing and it should give Chloe Zhao her first Oscar nomination for Best Director but the film is also an indie and they are not usually nominated for Best Director unless the film itself is a major Best Picture contender.

    If Dune is released this year, I don’t see how Villeneuve will not get nominated for his sci-fi epic. It is the kind of film that gets nominated in this category and it should continue that trend this year as well.

    Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods was released in June and that might hinder its chance come April but for now I have Lee getting a nomination.

    If West Side Story is nominated for Best Picture Spielberg will be nominated for Best Director as he is Steven Spielberg. Sorkin has a pretty good chance to get a nomination as well but his films are usually seen as “talky” and they often films perceived that way often do not get Bets Director nominations.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater

    Delroy Lindo is getting spectacular notices for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods and even though most presumed frontrunners do not stay so throughout the whole Oscar season, I am going to keep Lindo at #1. Gary Oldman seems almost locked for a nomination at this point even though I do not believe he will win as an overdue performer like Lindo or Murray will likely take the crown.

    Tom Hanks has had such a crazy year but being in the news as often as he has could give him a narrative to help in his Oscar chances. His work in Paul Greengrass’ News of the World will likely be stellar and a nomination here will redeem the Academy for snubbing Hanks for his amazing performance in Greengrass’ Captain Phillips.

    Bill Murray’s only Oscar nomination was in Sofia Coppola’s Lost in Translation and reteaming with Coppola could very well give him his second nomination and maybe his first win.

    Anthony Hopkins got some of the best reviews he has received this century for his work in The Father and even though films that premiere at Sundance do not usually last throughout Oscar season, he could get nominated if the movie gets some traction.

    Joaquin Phoenix is definitely a contender here and C’mon has already had success in directing actors to Oscar gold as he directed Christopher Plummer in his Oscar-winning turn in Beginners.

    BEST ACTOR

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Could be Supporting)

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could be Supporting), Matt Damon – Stillwater, Adam Driver – Annette, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Denzel Washington – Macbeth, Trevante Rhodes – United States vs Billie Holiday

    Nomadland looks amazing and Frances McDormand’s portrayal of a woman who loses everything in the Great Recession should give the two-time Oscar winner her sixth Oscar nomination.

    As I mentioned before, Ammonite’s mentions at both the Cannes and Toronto film festivals are very beneficial and the film’s two stars (Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan) should both get a nomination…and maybe a win?

    Michelle Pfeiffer’s role in French Exit seems like one that is all-or-none; if she gets nominated she will have a really good chance to win, but it is likely that she may not be nominated.

    Amy Adams will likely get her seventh(!) Oscar nomination, which will hopefully (but probably won’t) result in her first Oscar win.

    To me, it is a really close contest between Jennifer Hudson and Viola Davis for that last slot but as Jennifer Hudson is playing the (much) more well-known singer (Aretha Franklin), I put her in the slot. Both of them could easily get a nomination and both have a good chance to win if they do.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Could Jump In: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Julianne Moore – The Glorias, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead

    This is one of those categories where I feel that no one is really in a frontrunner position and my rankings are kind of based solely on who is more likely to get a nomination. At this point in the season, I cannot really say that I think any of these nominees have a good chance to win, but David Strathairn is the man who has the highest chance of getting a nomination as he is a once-nominated veteran that has never won an Oscar before.

    Tom Burke has never been in the Oscar conversation ever before but he is playing Orson Welles, who is one of the most mythologized figures in film history so if he delivers (and if the role is not just a cameo) he will definitely get a nomination.

    Sacha Baron Cohen is playing the most famous of the Chicago 7 (Abbie Hoffman) and due to that I am putting him here, but whoever is the standout in that film will be nominated here.

    I’m unsure about Jesse Plemons, but Charlie Kaufman’s scripts are usually good for actors (His Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind all got nominations and Adaptation got a win for Chris Cooper).

    Chadwick Boseman will probably not get nominated for Da 5 Bloods, but instead he could be in contention for his first nomination in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If Boseman does get this nomination, I think Viola Davis will as well in Best Actress. The Untitled Fred Hampton Project is a question mark for me as it has a good cast (Daniel Kaluuya, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Lakeith Stanfield, and Ashton Sanders are just a few) and is about a timely subject (Fred Hampton was a prominent member of the Black Panthers). However, I am not sure it will be released this year and, because its director and writers have comedy backgrounds, I am not sure how good the film will be.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could Be Lead)

    Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could be Lead), Lakeith Stanfield – Untitled Fred Hampton Project, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Tracy Letts – French Exit, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch.

    Glenn Close and Saoirse Ronan have 7 and 4 Oscar nominations respectively and one of these two overdue actresses should win this year.

    However, Ammonite will likely be a bigger Best Picture player than Hillbilly Elegy and because of that I am putting Ronan at #1.

    I’m still not comfortable with putting newcomer Ariana Debose so high in my predictions as this is her first role in a major film, but as she is playing the role Rita Moreno won her Oscar for in 1961 so I will keep her in the top 5 for now.

    I feel like that there will be an actress from Mank in the top five come nomination day and Amanda Seyfried seems like the performer in the best position to get a nomination.

    I will keep Rashida Jones here for now, but Abigail Breslin could also come in this 5th spot. If there is momentum for The Father Olivia Colman could be getting a nomination as well.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Glenn Close – Hilbilly Elegy

    Ariana Debose – West Side Story

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

    Could Jump In: Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Olivia Colman – The Father (Could be Lead), Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Debra Winger – Kajillionaire, Tilda Swinton – The French Dispatch

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Mank

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Ammonite

    The French Dispatch

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Soul, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Stillwater, Tenet, Annette, The King of Staten Island

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Dune

    I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Next Goal Wins, Those Who Wish Me Dead, Greyhound, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Respect, The Prom

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Aya and the Witch

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: The Croods 2, Wolfwalkers, Connected

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Tenet

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, News of the World, Mulan

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Dune

    Da 5 Bloods

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Ammonite, Nomadland

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune

    Ammonite

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Respect

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mulan

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Tenet

    Dune

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, The French Dispatch, The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Respect

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Eternals, The Witches, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Greyhound

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Eternals, No Time to Die, Respect, Soul, Da 5 Bloods

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Eternals

    Black Widow

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: No Time to Die, Wonder Woman 1984, Greyhound

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Soul

    Tenet

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Annette, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Witches

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Soul

    Annette

    Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    The Prom

    Could Jump In: Over the Moon, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Mulan