Let’s just cut right to the chase.
The first six here seemed all but assured for a nomination and I’m pretty sure the first seven will as well but from there on out it is uncertain. One of Sound of Metal, Judas, or News will make it due to PFCS, One of Da 5 Bloods, ‘Judas, and Sound for AFI. One of ‘Sound’, Da 5 Bloods, or News for CCA. In the past 4 years, every film that has been nominated for both CCA and PGA in this category has gone on to be nominated for Best Picture (except for The Big Sick, which didn’t get nominated because the Academy has a bias against pure comedies). Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, Minari, One Night in Miami, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Sound of Metal all fit this criteria this year so I think they all should get in. Judas and the Black Messiah is having a great final push and as it fits the criteria of an Oscar favorite to a T (I think it would be a top 5 contender if it was just released earlier), it will likely jump into the fray. The Father received a BAFTA nomination for Best Film, but it just doesn’t seem to be getting the support of the guilds which are so important in being successful here.
BEST PICTURE
Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, SAG, AFI
Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA
Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), PGA, SAG, AFI
One Night in Miami – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI
Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI
Judas and the Black Messiah – PGA, AFI
Sound of Metal – CCA, PGA, AFI
Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, GG (Drama), Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – GG (Comedy), PGA, Soul – AFI, First Cow
This one is really between 7 people: Chloe Zhao, David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, Emerald Fennell, Regina King, Lee Isaac Chung, and Spike Lee. Zhao seems like the only nominee who is locked in for a nomination as I could see any one of the others being forgotten on nomination day. Every day Minari’s stock rises and seems more and more like a top three Best Picture contender and if that is the case, Chung will definitely get in. Fennell’s Promising Young Woman could also be a top 3 contender but since her and Sorkin’s films are more screenplay-driven, I could see either of them missing here like Peter Farrelly did for Green Book two years ago. Fincher is likely only getting this nomination on the strength of his legacy as Mank seems to be faltering somewhat. Regina King and Spike Lee could also definitely get in as well. This category is prone to surprises and that usually comes in the form of the director of a serious period drama that the below-the line groups love. So watch out for Spike Lee or Paul Greengrass to surprise.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, DGA
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – GG, CCA, DGA
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, CCA, DGA
David Fincher – Mank – GG, CCA, DGA
Could Jump In: Regina King – One Night in Miami – GG, CCA, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Darius Marder – Sound Of Metal, Paul Greengrass – News of the World
The first three here are locked for nominations while I think the last two spots could realistically only be filled by two of three people, Steven Yeun, Gary Oldman, or Delroy Lindo. Oldman has had nods at three of the spotlighted precursors, but Mank seems very vulnerable right now. Steven Yeun got two important precursors but surprisingly didn’t get BAFTA even though his film got a lot of love in the other jury-nominated categories like Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Director. I thought Lindo would get BAFTA and catapult himself to an Oscar nomination with a nomination there, but, even though the man is British and we saw vast diversity in the nominations, he still didn’t get a nom at the BAFTAs. I am going to put Oldman here but something tells me that Lindo will replace him on nominations morning.
BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA
Anthony Hopkins – The Father – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA
Steven Yeun – Minari – CCA, SAG
Gary Oldman – Mank – GG, SAG, CCA
Could Jump In: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round – BAFTA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG, BAFTA
This one seems airtight and I really don’t think anybody else has enough momentum to join in here.
BEST ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, SAG
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, GG, SAG
Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – CCA, GG
Kaluuya, Cohen, and Odom Jr. are all locked for a nomination here and I think that Raci is as well. The fifth slot is really the only question mark. I think the last slot is between Bill Murray, Chadwick Boseman, and Mark Rylance. Rylance could get in out of the Academy’s love for The Trial of the Chicago 7. Bill Murray could get in as the Oscars do often give nominations to older veterans (Tom Hanks last year and Christopher Plummer three years ago) who end up being their film’s one and only nomination. And Boseman could get in on the strength of his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and on the outpouring of love for the late star. If neither Murray nor Boseman get in, it will be Rylance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
Leslie Odom Jr. – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
Sacha Baron Cohen – CCA, GG, SAG
Paul Raci – BAFTA, CCA
Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG
Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Jared Leto – The Little Things – GG, SAG
This is one of the weirder categories as only one actress here (Maria Bakalova) has received nominations from the four main organizations and that too for a performance in a comedy. That said, she definitely deserves all of this recognition and is probably the only person that I think is locked for a nomination. Both Youn Yuh-jung and Olivia Colman are pretty much locked and while Close has received the same nominations as Colman she also received a nomination for Worst Supporting Actress at the Razzies so I am not sure if she will be nominated. Seyfried is slowly falling along with her film but I think she should still have enough strength to hold on to a position here. Foster’s surprise win at the Globes may turn out to be unsuccessful in creating an Oscar nom but her popularity in Hollywood coupled with the fact that this is her first major performance in at least seven years (excepting Hotel Artemis which most people do) should push her to a nomination here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – BAFTA, CCA, GG (lead), SAG
Youn Yuh-jung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, SAG
Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, GG, SAG
Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG
Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG
Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, GG, SAG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA
Both Mank and Minari were ineligible for nominations at WGA, so there exclusions there are not concerning. The first three I have here I think are locked while the next three slots could be filled by Sound of Metal, Mank, or Judas and the Black Messiah. Mank seems to be falling but it did receive a BAFTA nomination here so I think it should be fine. Sound of Metal is about language itself so it should be especially appealing and would be a great way to give ‘Blue Valentine’ writer Derek Cianfrance his first Oscar nomination.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
Minari – CCA
Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA
Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG
Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA
The first four here seem essentially locked but there are four films that are realistically vying for the last slot. I am going to go with The White Tiger as it has quietly surged and received a couple of BAFTA nominations. But I could see it very possibly going to First Cow, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, or News of the World. First Cow since no film that has won the New York Film Critics Circle’s Best Film award has ever been completely shut out at the Oscars, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm because of its overt political commentary, and News of the World since it has the highest chance of being nominated for Best Picture among the four films.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland – BAFTA, USC, GG, CCA
One Night in Miami – USC, CCA, WGA
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – USC, CCA, WGA
The Father – BAFTA, GG, CCA
The White Tiger – BAFTA, WGA
Could Jump In: First Cow – USC, CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, News of the World – USC, CCA, WGA
The first three are definitely locked and I am pretty confident about including Over the Moon and The Croods: A New Age but The Willoughbys could surprise and enter the fold.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
The Croods: A New Age
Over the Moon
Could Jump In: The Willoughbys
The top 3 here Mank, News of the World, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seem locked here. Both Mank and News of the World have received nominations from BAFTA, the Art Directors Guild, and the Critics Choice Awards. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom received noms from both the CCA and the ADG. Tenet did as well, but this category does not nominate contemporary films nearly as much as they do period films so I don’t think it’s locked.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank – ADG, BAFTA, CCA
News of the World – ADG, BAFTA, CCA
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, ADG
Tenet – CCA, ADG
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ADG
Could Jump In: Mulan – ADG, Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Emma. – CCA
Nomadland, Mank, and News of the World seem locked here. ASC has the best historical track record here and in the past ten years they have always gotten either 4 or 5 of their picks in the Oscar nominee slate. Since The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a much bigger Oscar contender then Cherry is, I put the former in. Now, the last slot. Personally, I believe that it could really only go to Minari, Tenet, or Judas and the Black Messiah. I am going to go with Minari because it seems like it has widespread industry support. However, I could probably say the same thing about ‘Judas’ and I would be the least bit surprised if it showed up in a bunch of categories on Monday morning. Also, don’t count out First Cow as the Academy might want to award the critical favorite somewhere and as its chances at an Adapted Screenplay nomination are dwindling this may be the place that at lands.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nomadland – ASC, BAFTA, CCA
Mank – ASC, BAFTA, CCA
News of the World – ASC, BAFTA, CCA
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ASC
Minari – CCA
Could Jump In: Tenet – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA, First Cow – CCA, Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Cherry – ASC
Period films almost always fully occupy this category and that is probably the most important thing to keep in mind here. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and Emma. are all locked for nominations here and Mulan seems well in place as well. I am going to choose Ammonite to fill the last spot here since it is a period piece and BAFTA has a really good track record in this category.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG
Mank – BAFTA, CCA, CDG
Emma. – BAFTA, CCA, CDG
Mulan – CCA, CDG
Ammonite – BAFTA
Could Jump In: News of the World, Promising Young Woman – CCA, CDG, The Glorias, The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA
The first three are locked for nominations and I could see next two slots going to The Father, Promising Young Woman, or Minari. I am going to go with Promising Young Woman and Minari as The Father’s star is really falling right now as it didn’t get a nod from the ACE, which it was expected to do.
BEST EDITING
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, ACE
Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CCA, ACE
Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, ACE
Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, ACE
Minari – ACE
Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, CCA, Mank – ACE, CCA, Tenet – CCA
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
Hillbilly Elegy – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
Mank – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
Birds of Prey – MUAH
Pinocchio – BAFTA, MUAH
Could Jump In: Emma. – CCA, The Glorias, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey – MUAH
BEST SOUND
Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE
News of the World – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE
Mank – CAS, MPSE
Greyhound – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE
Soul – BAFTA, MPSE
Could Jump In: Nomadland – BAFTA, MPSE, Tenet – MPSE, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CAS, MPSE, The Midnight Sky – MPSE
My instincts are telling me to put in Birds of Prey instead of Welcome to Chechnya here but I just can’t bring myself to do it since it did not get any nominations from the Visual Effects Society.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Tenet – BAFTA, CCA, VES
The Midnight Sky – BAFTA, CCA, VES
Mulan – BAFTA, CCA, VES
Welcome to Chechnya – VES
The One and Only Ivan – BAFTA, VES
Could Jump In: Birds of Prey, Mank – CCA, VES, Soul – BAFTA, VES
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Soul – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
News of the World – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Minari – BAFTA, CCA, HMMA, SCL
The Midnight Sky – CCA, GG, HMMA
Could Jump In: Tenet, The Little Things
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
One Night in Miami – CCA, GG, HMMA
The Life Ahead – CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, HMMA
Eurovision Song Contest – CCA, HMMA, SCL
All In: The Fight for Democracy – HMMA
Could Jump In: Giving Voice – HMMA, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, HMMA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – SCL, Minari – HMMA
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Another Round – GG, BAFTA, CCA
Quo Vadis, Aida? – BAFTA
Two of Us – GG, CCA
I’m No Longer Here
Night of the Kings
Could Jump In: Collective – CCA, Dear Comrades! – BAFTA, La Llorona – GG, CCA
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Time – CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA
Collective – BAFTA, CEH, IDA
Crip Camp – CCA, IDA
Welcome to Chechnya – DGA, IDA
Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA, PGA
Could Jump In: The Truffle Hunters – DGA, PGA, IDA, Boys State – CEH, DGA, All In: The Fight for Democracy, My Octopus Teacher – BAFTA, CCA
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
The Letter Room
The Human Voice
Two Distant Strangers
Feeling Through
The Present
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Colette
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
A Concerto is a Conversation
Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
If Anything Happens I Love You
Out
Opera
Burrow
Kapaemahu
