Awards Insights

Tag: oscar

FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

BEST ACTOR

While Anthony Hopkins’ BAFTA win shows that there is support for his performance, BAFTA does often show a preference for British actors and Boseman should still be able to win. However, some are saying that the Hopkins win is indicative of a very popular push for the veteran’s work to be recognized. Still, I don’t think it will be enough to overtake Boseman. This does, however, show that there is a lot of support for The Father and it may be a mistake to predict the film being shut out.

Nominees:

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, CCA, SAG

Anthony Hopkins – The Father – BAFTA

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Steven Yeun – Minari

Gary Oldman – Mank

Pick: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST ACTRESS

A stat that is important, I think, is that no Best Actress winner in at least the last 10 years has lost at the Film Independent Spirit awards if they were nominated there. That means that if the eventual Best Actress winner is nominated at the Spirit awards it will win there as well. Carey Mulligan was the winner from the Spirits and if I were to go by the previously-mentioned logic, Andra Day and Mulligan are the only two that have a chance at winning here (since Day was not nominated at the Spirits). This is only one of the stats that are in play here and the question is which of these stats is the most breakable?

While the SAG award has been in existence (it was started in the mid-90s), no Best Actress winner won without a nomination there. Andra Day is the only nominee that did not pull off a nomination at SAG and while some might say that is because her film had a really late release date and was therefore underseen, Judas and the Black Messiah also had a late release date but Kaluuya was still able to garner a SAG nom. This seems like a pretty strong stat since there are hundreds of people that vote for the SAG awards who also vote for the Oscars.

Another stat is that every Best Actress winner in the 21st century so far won at either SAG or BAFTA. Davis won SAG and McDormand won BAFTA but this year at BAFTA, a jury of around 10 people chose the nominations in the acting and directing categories for the first time this century and actresses like Davis, Mulligan, and Day did not receive a nomination, probably as a result. In the end, I feel that BAFTA would have gone to Mulligan without the juries and that the two somewhat similar roles from Day and Davis might cancel each other out a bit and Mulligan will prevail.

Nominees:

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG

Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG

Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

Pick: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya has taken the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, SAG award, and BAFTA for his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. While some say that Lakeith Stanfield’s surprise inclusion here could siphon votes away from Kaluuya, Kaluuya is the only acting sweeper this year and I think he is too far ahead at this point to lose.

Nominees:

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

Pick: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

2020 – Laura Dern – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2019 – Regina King – GG, CCA

2018 – Allison Janney – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2017 – Viola Davis – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2016 – Alicia Vikander – SAG, CCA

2015 – Patricia Arquette – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

Even though some say Glenn Close is still in this race, I really think that the Razie nomination may have been the nail in the coffin for her. So in my mind this is between Youn Yuh-Jung and Maria Bakalova. The former has won the SAG and BAFTA awards while the latter has won the Critics Choice award. Even though purely comedic performances aren’t often recognized in this category, Bakalova’s performance is one that has transcended that bias as even who have not even watched the movie know about the quality and success of her performance. Youn’s performance in Minari is more of a traditional winner in this category and this is an excellent place to award Minari especially when it will likely not win anywhere else. Since I think Minari has a lot of love, I am going with Youn.

Nominees:

Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – SAG, BAFTA

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman – The Father

Amanda Seyfried – Mank

Pick: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

April 24, 2021
FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

2019 – Green Book – GG

2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

2015 – Birdman – GG

2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

So, essentially, the winner in this category is the film that wins the most precursors unless a film that won at least one precursor wins Best Picture. Therefore, Promising Young Woman will win Original Screenplay unless The Trial of the Chicago 7 somehow pulls off a Best Picture win. And if two films are tied (Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri both had two precursors each in 2018), the film that won’t win anywhere else will win.

Nominees:

Promising Young Woman – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG

Minari

Judas and the Black Messiah

Sound of Metal

Pick: Promising Young Woman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

2020 – Jojo Rabbit – BAFTA, WGA

2019 – BlacKKKlansman – BAFTA

2018 – Call Me By Your Name – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC

2017 – Moonlight – WGA (Original), USC

2016 – The Big Short – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC

2015 – The Imitation Game – WGA, USC

The same rules I laid out for Original Screenplay apply here as well. It will be the film that has won the most precursors unless its competitor wins Best Picture and if two or more films are tied it will be the one that won’t win anywhere else. This year, Nomadland, the Best Picture frontrunner, has the most precursors with two (CCA, USC) and The Father has 1 (BAFTA). So going by my rules Nomadland should win this but I can’t shake the feeling that the people who saw The Father really liked it (it has an 8.3 IMDb rating right now) and since the film probably won’t win anywhere else (Hopkins has chance in Best Actor but it’s extremely slim), maybe they’ll want to push it here. It’s also true that Nomadland does not seem like a Screenplay film and more like a Director film and doesn’t seem to be in the same caliber of film that generates the kind of love that wins Picture, Director, and Screenplay (Parasite, Birdman, and 12 Years a Slave have recently accomplished this feat). Anyway, if Nomadland loses Picture it will definitely lose here but it does not need a win here to win Picture. So I am going to go with The Father because I believe that The Father is that late-breaking film that surprises and I’ve seen so much love for Anthony Hopkins’ performance in the last couple of weeks. I was previously thinking that maybe all the love for the film is reserved solely for Hopkins’ performance but its 8.3 IMDb score says otherwise. All of this might just be smoke and mirrors but I do think the love for the film will get it a win here and I feel safe saying that since Nomadland does not need a win here to win Picture.

Nominees:

The Father – BAFTA

Nomadland – CCA, USC

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA

One Night in Miami

The White Tiger

Pick: The Father

April 23, 2021
FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

BEST FILM EDITING

2020 – Ford v Ferrari – BAFTA

2019 – Bohemian Rhapsody – ACE

2018 – Dunkirk – ACE, CCA

2017 – Hacksaw Ridge – BAFTA

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, ACE, CCA

2015 – Whiplash – BAFTA

In the past six years, the winner in the Best Editing category has crossed over with a Best Sound Mixing or Editing winner as well. Sound of Metal has a good chance of continuing that trend as, like Whiplash before it, is a drummer-focused drama with great editing. However, I think that The Trial of the Chicago 7 has a great chance of pulling away here since I don’t really see it winning anywhere else. With its recent wins from SAG, ACE and MPSE, it seems that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a well-liked film among people in the industry. It is certainly the most widely-watched of the Best Picture nominees and I think that its popularity should bring it at least one win. Therefore, I think the film’s flashy editing should bring it a win as it has the precursors necessary.

Nominees:

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA (tied), ACE

Sound of Metal – CCA (tied), BAFTA

Nomadland

The Father

Promising Young Woman

Pick: The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

Even though Mank did nab ASC, Nomadland is still most likely going to take this especially since ASC often diverges from Oscar. Nomadland took BAFTA and CCA which are more predictive so I’ll keep it as the winner. While Mank does have that showy black-and-white cinematography, Nomadland’s vistas are absolutely stunning as well so I think it still should win.

Nominees:

Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA

Mank – ASC

News of the World

Judas and the Black Messiah

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Pick: Nomadland

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

2020 – Little Women – BAFTA

2019 – Black Panther – CCA, CDG

2018 – Phantom Thread – BAFTA, CCA

2017 – Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them –

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

While Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them recently won with no precursor wins, it was not facing a film that had swept BAFTA, CCA, and CDA since its main competition, Jackie, lost CDA. So Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should win this over Emma..

Nominees:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG (Period)

Emma.

Mulan – CDG (Fantasy)

Mank

Pinocchio

Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

April 21, 2021
FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

To me, the winners of these short categories either go to a film with qn extremely satisfying ending or a film that touches on an especially relevant issue. Two Distant Strangers, a film about a man who has to constantly relive his encounter with a police officer, is extremely relevant right now with the trial of Derek Chauvin for the killing of George Floyd going on right now and the killing of Daunte Wright on Sunday fresh in our memories. While a film like Feeling Through or The Present may have won last year or the year before, I don’t really see how Two Distant Strangers loses this award especially since the voters have previously awarded a film tackling race relations recently in this category (Skin in 2019), so they are not shy about this topic. Still, watch out for Feeling Through which is the probably the most optimistic of the films here and follows the past templates of films that have won. Also, The Letter Room stars Oscar Isaac so make of that what you will.

Nominees:

Two Distant Strangers

The Letter Room

Feeling Through

The Present – BAFTA

White Eye

Pick: Two Distant Strangers

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Two shorts, If Anything Happens I Love You and Burrow are the only two that I can see winning here. The former is a Netflix tearjerker that tackles the subject of school shootings, while the latter is a comparatively lighter Pixar short. While Pixar has a great track record here, I believe that If Anything Happens I Love You will win as I have heard talk about it in non-Oscar contexts and it is a tearjerker, which will be really tempting to vote for especially in this category.

Nominees:

If Anything Happens I Love You

Burrow

Genius Loci

Opera

Yes-People

Pick: If Anything Happens I Love You

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

This one is probably the most wide-open of the categories and there definitely is no clear frontrunner. However, since I chose a Netflix-distributed short in the previous two categories I don’t think I can choose A Love Song for Latasha here since the Academy still does have a bias against streaming films. Granted, Netflix has had a lot of past success in these categories but I don’t see them sweeping these categories when films like Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom were left out of the Best Picture fold partly since it was a Netflix film (my theory). Anyway, that leaves the other three films with the greatest odds of winning this: A Concerto is a Conversation, Colette, and Hunger Ward. I am going to go with A Concerto is a Conversation since Colette doesn’t seem to have enough timeliness or lightness to win here and while Hunger Ward tackles an important subject, its probably too long as it is 40 minutes while the other films are closer to 20. That is if the Academy members actually watch the films because I don’t believe that the majority of the Academy chooses to vote in the shorts categories. Quick note: Do Not Split is about the protests in Hong Kong and I am barely mentioning it because I don’t believe that the Academy wants to anger China when it is so important to Hollywood market.

Nominees:

A Conversation is a Conversation

A Love Song for Latasha

Colette

Hunger Ward

Do Not Split

Pick: A Concerto is a Conversation

April 17, 2021
DGA Essentially Confirms That Zhao Will Win Best Director

Chloe Zhao continued her sweep of all the major directing precursors with a win at DGA. If anybody somehow thought she could lose Best Director before DGA, they shouldn’t now.

It was more interesting that My Octopus Teacher lost in the Documentary category to The Truffle Hunters as the latter film is not even nominated at the Oscars.

Anyway, here’s the full list of winners:

Outstanding Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film for 2020:

CHLOÉ ZHAO | Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) (WINNER)

LEE ISAAC CHUNG | Minari (A24)

EMERALD FENNELL | Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)

DAVID FINCHER | Mank (Netflix)

AARON SORKIN | The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix; DreamWorks Pictures)

Outstanding Directorial Achievement of a First-Time Feature Film Director:

DARIUS MARDER | Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) (WINNER)

RADHA BLANK | The Forty-Year-Old Version (Netflix)

FERNANDO FRÍAS DE LA PARRA | I’m No Longer Here (Netflix)

REGINA KING | One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)

FLORIAN ZELLER | The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Dramatic Series

LESLI LINKA GLATTER | Homeland, “Prisoners of War” (Showtime) (WINNER)

JASON BATEMAN | Ozark, “Wartime” (Netflix)

JON FAVREAU | The Mandalorian, “Chapter 9: The Marshal” (Disney+)

VINCE GILLIGAN | Better Call Saul, “Bagman” (AMC)

JULIE ANNE ROBINSON | Bridgerton, “Diamond of the First Water” (Netflix)

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Comedy Series

SUSANNA FOGEL | The Flight Attendant, “In Case of Emergency” (HBO Max) (WINNER)

ZACH BRAFF | Ted Lasso, “Biscuits” (Apple TV+)

MJ DELANEY | Ted Lasso, “The Hope that Kills You” (Apple TV+)

ERIN O’MALLEY | Curb Your Enthusiasm, “The Surprise Party” (HBO)

JEFF SCHAFFER | Curb Your Enthusiasm, “The Spite Store” (HBO)

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Movies for Television and Limited Series

SCOTT FRANK | The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) (WINNER)

SUSANNE BIER | The Undoing (HBO)

THOMAS KAIL | Hamilton (Disney+)

MATT SHAKMAN | WandaVision (Disney +)

LYNN SHELTON | Little Fires Everywhere, “Find a Way” (Hulu)

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Variety/Talk/News/Sports – Regularly Scheduled Programming

DON ROY KING | Saturday Night Live, “Dave Chappelle; Foo Fighters” (NBC) (WINNER)

PAUL G. CASEY | Real Time With Bill Maher, “Episode 1835” (HBO)

JIM HOSKINSON | The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, “#1025 Live Show Following Capitol Insurrection” (CBS)

DAVID PAUL MEYER | The Daily Show with Trevor Noah, “President Obama: Inspiring Future Leaders” & “A Promised Land” (Comedy Central)

CHRISTOPHER WERNER | Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, “Trump & Election Results” (HBO)

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Variety/Talk/News/Sports – Specials

THOMAS SCHLAMME | A West Wing Special to Benefit When We All Vote (HBO Max) (WINNER)

STACEY ANGELES | The Daily Show with Trevor Noah Presents “Remembering RBG: A Nation Ugly Cried with Desi Lydic (Comedy Central)

MARIELLE HELLER | What the Constitution Means to Me (Amazon)

JIM HOSKINSON | The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, “Stephen Colbert’s Election Night 2020: Democracy’s Last Stand: Building Back America Great Again Better 2020” (Showtime)

SPIKE LEE | American Utopia (HBO)

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Reality Programs

JOSEPH GUIDRY | Full Bloom, “Petal to the Metal” (HBO Max) (WINNER)

DAVID CHARLES | Eco Challenge, “3,2,1…Go!” (Amazon)

JON FAVREAU | The Chef Show, “Tartine” (Netflix)

KEN FUCHS | Shark Tank, “1211” (ABC)

RICH KIM | Lego Masters, “Mega City Block” (FOX)

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Children’s Programs

AMY SCHATZ | We Are the Dream: The Kids of the Oakland MLK Oratorical Fest (HBO) (WINNER)

KABIR AKHTAR | High School Musical: The Musical ‑ The Series, “Opening Night” (Disney+)

LARISSA BILLS | On Pointe, “Showtime!” (Disney+)

DEAN ISRAELITE | The Astronauts, “Countdown” (Nickelodeon)

RICHIE KEEN | The Healing Powers of Dude, “Second Step: Homeroom” (Netflix)

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Commercials

MELINA MATSOUKAS (Prettybird) | You Love Me, Beats by Dr. Dre ‑ Translation (WINNER)

STEVE AYSON (MJZ) | The Great Chase, Nike ‑ Wieden + Kennedy Shanghai

NISHA GANATRA (Chelsea Pictures) | #wombstories, Bodyform/Libresse – AMVBBDO

NICLAS LARSSON (MJZ) | See the Unseen, VW Touareg ‑ adam&eveDDB; The Parents, Volvo XC60 ‑ Forsman & Bodenfors

TAIKA WAITITI (Hungry Man) | The Letter, Coca‑Cola ‑ Wieden & Kennedy London

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Documentary

MICHAEL DWECK & GREGORY KERSHAW | The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics) (WINNER)

PIPPA EHRLICH & JAMES REED | My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)

DAVID FRANCE | Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Max)

AMANDA McBAINE & JESSE MOSS | Boys State (Apple/A24)

BENJAMIN REE | The Painter and the Thief (Elevation Pictures)

April 11, 2021
2021 Oscar Nominations List: ‘Mank’ leads with 10

Best Picture

“The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)

“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)

“Mank” (Netflix)

“Minari” (A24)

“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)

“Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)

“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)

“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)

Best Director

Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”)

David Fincher (“Mank”)

Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)

Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”)

Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)

Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)

Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)

Gary Oldman (“Mank”)

Steven Yeun (“Minari”)

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)

Andra Day (“The United States v. Billie Holiday”)

Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)

Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)

Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)

Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)

Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)

Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”)

Lakeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Maria Bakalova (‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)

Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”)

Olivia Colman (“The Father”)

Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)

Yuh-jung Youn (“Minari”)

Best Animated Feature Film

“Onward” (Pixar)

“Over the Moon” (Netflix)

“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” (Netflix)

“Soul” (Pixar)

“Wolfwalkers” (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS)

Best Adapted Screenplay

“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Nina Pedrad

“The Father,” Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

“Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao

“One Night in Miami,” Kemp Powers

“The White Tiger,” Ramin Bahrani

Best Original Screenplay

“Judas and the Black Messiah.” Screenplay by Will Berson, Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas

“Minari,” Lee Isaac Chung

“Promising Young Woman,” Emerald Fennell

“Sound of Metal.” Screenplay by Darius Marder, Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance

“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Aaron Sorkin

Best Original Song

“Fight for You,” (“Judas and the Black Messiah”). Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas

“Hear My Voice,” (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”). Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

“Húsavík,” (“Eurovision Song Contest”). Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson

“Io Si (Seen),” (“The Life Ahead”). Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini

“Speak Now,” (“One Night in Miami”). Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

Best Original Score

“Da 5 Bloods,” Terence Blanchard

“Mank,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

“Minari,” Emile Mosseri

“News of the World,” James Newton Howard

“Soul,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste

Best Sound

“Greyhound,” Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman

“Mank,” Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin

“News of the World,” Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett

“Soul,” Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker

“Sound of Metal,” Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

Best Costume Design

“Emma,” Alexandra Byrne

“Mank,” Trish Summerville

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Ann Roth

“Mulan,” Bina Daigeler

“Pinocchio,” Massimo Cantini Parrini

Best Animated Short Film

“Burrow” (Disney Plus/Pixar)

“Genius Loci” (Kazak Productions)

“If Anything Happens I Love You” (Netflix)

“Opera” (Beasts and Natives Alike)

“Yes-People” (CAOZ hf. Hólamói)

Best Live-Action Short Film

“Feeling Through”

“The Letter Room”

“The Present”

“Two Distant Strangers”

“White Eye”

Best Cinematography

“Judas and the Black Messiah,” Sean Bobbitt

“Mank,” Erik Messerschmidt

“News of the World,” Dariusz Wolski

“Nomadland,” Joshua James Richards

“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Phedon Papamichael

Best Documentary Feature

“Collective” (Magnolia Pictures and Participant)

“Crip Camp” (Netflix)

“The Mole Agent” (Gravitas Ventures)

“My Octopus Teacher” (Netflix)

“Time” (Amazon Studios)

Best Documentary Short Subject

“Colette” (Time Travel Unlimited)

“A Concerto Is a Conversation” (Breakwater Studios)

“Do Not Split” (Field of Vision)

“Hunger Ward” (MTV Documentary Films)

“A Love Song for Latasha” (Netflix)

Best Film Editing

“The Father,” Yorgos Lamprinos

“Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao

“Promising Young Woman,” Frédéric Thoraval

“Sound of Metal,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Alan Baumgarten

Best International Feature Film

“Another Round” (Denmark)

“Better Days” (Hong Kong)

“Collective” (Romania)

“The Man Who Sold His Skin” (Tunisia)

“Quo Vadis, Aida?”(Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Emma,” Marese Langan, Laura Allen, Claudia Stolze

“Hillbilly Elegy,” Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney, Matthew Mungle

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson

“Mank,” Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams, Colleen LaBaff

“Pinocchio,” Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

Best Production Design

“The Father.” Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton

“Mank.” Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale

“News of the World.” Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan

“Tenet.” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

Best Visual Effects

“Love and Monsters,” Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox

“The Midnight Sky,” Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins

“Mulan,” Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram

“The One and Only Ivan,” Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez

“Tenet,” Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

March 18, 2021
FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

Let’s just cut right to the chase.

The first six here seemed all but assured for a nomination and I’m pretty sure the first seven will as well but from there on out it is uncertain. One of Sound of Metal, Judas, or News will make it due to PFCS, One of Da 5 Bloods, ‘Judas, and Sound for AFI. One of ‘Sound’, Da 5 Bloods, or News for CCA. In the past 4 years, every film that has been nominated for both CCA and PGA in this category has gone on to be nominated for Best Picture (except for The Big Sick, which didn’t get nominated because the Academy has a bias against pure comedies). Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, Minari, One Night in Miami, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Sound of Metal all fit this criteria this year so I think they all should get in. Judas and the Black Messiah is having a great final push and as it fits the criteria of an Oscar favorite to a T (I think it would be a top 5 contender if it was just released earlier), it will likely jump into the fray. The Father received a BAFTA nomination for Best Film, but it just doesn’t seem to be getting the support of the guilds which are so important in being successful here.

BEST PICTURE

Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, SAG, AFI

Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA

Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), PGA, SAG, AFI

One Night in Miami – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI

Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI

Judas and the Black Messiah – PGA, AFI

Sound of Metal – CCA, PGA, AFI

Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, GG (Drama), Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – GG (Comedy), PGA, Soul – AFI, First Cow

This one is really between 7 people: Chloe Zhao, David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, Emerald Fennell, Regina King, Lee Isaac Chung, and Spike Lee. Zhao seems like the only nominee who is locked in for a nomination as I could see any one of the others being forgotten on nomination day. Every day Minari’s stock rises and seems more and more like a top three Best Picture contender and if that is the case, Chung will definitely get in. Fennell’s Promising Young Woman could also be a top 3 contender but since her and Sorkin’s films are more screenplay-driven, I could see either of them missing here like Peter Farrelly did for Green Book two years ago. Fincher is likely only getting this nomination on the strength of his legacy as Mank seems to be faltering somewhat. Regina King and Spike Lee could also definitely get in as well. This category is prone to surprises and that usually comes in the form of the director of a serious period drama that the below-the line groups love. So watch out for Spike Lee or Paul Greengrass to surprise.

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, DGA

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – GG, CCA, DGA

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, CCA, DGA

David Fincher – Mank – GG, CCA, DGA

Could Jump In: Regina King – One Night in Miami – GG, CCA, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Darius Marder – Sound Of Metal, Paul Greengrass – News of the World

The first three here are locked for nominations while I think the last two spots could realistically only be filled by two of three people, Steven Yeun, Gary Oldman, or Delroy Lindo. Oldman has had nods at three of the spotlighted precursors, but Mank seems very vulnerable right now. Steven Yeun got two important precursors but surprisingly didn’t get BAFTA even though his film got a lot of love in the other jury-nominated categories like Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Director. I thought Lindo would get BAFTA and catapult himself to an Oscar nomination with a nomination there, but, even though the man is British and we saw vast diversity in the nominations, he still didn’t get a nom at the BAFTAs. I am going to put Oldman here but something tells me that Lindo will replace him on nominations morning.

BEST ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

Anthony Hopkins – The Father – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

Steven Yeun – Minari – CCA, SAG

Gary Oldman – Mank – GG, SAG, CCA

Could Jump In: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round – BAFTA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG, BAFTA

This one seems airtight and I really don’t think anybody else has enough momentum to join in here.

BEST ACTRESS

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, SAG

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, GG, SAG

Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – CCA, GG

Kaluuya, Cohen, and Odom Jr. are all locked for a nomination here and I think that Raci is as well. The fifth slot is really the only question mark. I think the last slot is between Bill Murray, Chadwick Boseman, and Mark Rylance. Rylance could get in out of the Academy’s love for The Trial of the Chicago 7. Bill Murray could get in as the Oscars do often give nominations to older veterans (Tom Hanks last year and Christopher Plummer three years ago) who end up being their film’s one and only nomination. And Boseman could get in on the strength of his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and on the outpouring of love for the late star. If neither Murray nor Boseman get in, it will be Rylance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

Leslie Odom Jr. – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

Sacha Baron Cohen – CCA, GG, SAG

Paul Raci – BAFTA, CCA

Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG

Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Jared Leto – The Little Things – GG, SAG

This is one of the weirder categories as only one actress here (Maria Bakalova) has received nominations from the four main organizations and that too for a performance in a comedy. That said, she definitely deserves all of this recognition and is probably the only person that I think is locked for a nomination. Both Youn Yuh-jung and Olivia Colman are pretty much locked and while Close has received the same nominations as Colman she also received a nomination for Worst Supporting Actress at the Razzies so I am not sure if she will be nominated. Seyfried is slowly falling along with her film but I think she should still have enough strength to hold on to a position here. Foster’s surprise win at the Globes may turn out to be unsuccessful in creating an Oscar nom but her popularity in Hollywood coupled with the fact that this is her first major performance in at least seven years (excepting Hotel Artemis which most people do) should push her to a nomination here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – BAFTA, CCA, GG (lead), SAG

Youn Yuh-jung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, SAG

Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, GG, SAG

Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG

Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG

Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, GG, SAG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA

Both Mank and Minari were ineligible for nominations at WGA, so there exclusions there are not concerning. The first three I have here I think are locked while the next three slots could be filled by Sound of Metal, Mank, or Judas and the Black Messiah. Mank seems to be falling but it did receive a BAFTA nomination here so I think it should be fine. Sound of Metal is about language itself so it should be especially appealing and would be a great way to give ‘Blue Valentine’ writer Derek Cianfrance his first Oscar nomination.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA

Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA

Minari – CCA

Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA

Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG

Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA

The first four here seem essentially locked but there are four films that are realistically vying for the last slot. I am going to go with The White Tiger as it has quietly surged and received a couple of BAFTA nominations. But I could see it very possibly going to First Cow, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, or News of the World. First Cow since no film that has won the New York Film Critics Circle’s Best Film award has ever been completely shut out at the Oscars, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm because of its overt political commentary, and News of the World since it has the highest chance of being nominated for Best Picture among the four films.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nomadland – BAFTA, USC, GG, CCA

One Night in Miami – USC, CCA, WGA

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – USC, CCA, WGA

The Father – BAFTA, GG, CCA

The White Tiger – BAFTA, WGA

Could Jump In: First Cow – USC, CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, News of the World – USC, CCA, WGA

The first three are definitely locked and I am pretty confident about including Over the Moon and The Croods: A New Age but The Willoughbys could surprise and enter the fold.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Soul

Wolfwalkers

Onward

The Croods: A New Age

Over the Moon

Could Jump In: The Willoughbys

The top 3 here Mank, News of the World, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seem locked here. Both Mank and News of the World have received nominations from BAFTA, the Art Directors Guild, and the Critics Choice Awards. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom received noms from both the CCA and the ADG. Tenet did as well, but this category does not nominate contemporary films nearly as much as they do period films so I don’t think it’s locked.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Mank – ADG, BAFTA, CCA

News of the World – ADG, BAFTA, CCA

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, ADG

Tenet – CCA, ADG

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ADG

Could Jump In: Mulan – ADG, Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Emma. – CCA

Nomadland, Mank, and News of the World seem locked here. ASC has the best historical track record here and in the past ten years they have always gotten either 4 or 5 of their picks in the Oscar nominee slate. Since The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a much bigger Oscar contender then Cherry is, I put the former in. Now, the last slot. Personally, I believe that it could really only go to Minari, Tenet, or Judas and the Black Messiah. I am going to go with Minari because it seems like it has widespread industry support. However, I could probably say the same thing about ‘Judas’ and I would be the least bit surprised if it showed up in a bunch of categories on Monday morning. Also, don’t count out First Cow as the Academy might want to award the critical favorite somewhere and as its chances at an Adapted Screenplay nomination are dwindling this may be the place that at lands.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nomadland – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

Mank – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

News of the World – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ASC

Minari – CCA

Could Jump In: Tenet – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA, First Cow – CCA, Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Cherry – ASC

Period films almost always fully occupy this category and that is probably the most important thing to keep in mind here. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and Emma. are all locked for nominations here and Mulan seems well in place as well. I am going to choose Ammonite to fill the last spot here since it is a period piece and BAFTA has a really good track record in this category.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

Mank – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

Emma. – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

Mulan – CCA, CDG

Ammonite – BAFTA

Could Jump In: News of the World, Promising Young Woman – CCA, CDG, The Glorias, The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA

The first three are locked for nominations and I could see next two slots going to The Father, Promising Young Woman, or Minari. I am going to go with Promising Young Woman and Minari as The Father’s star is really falling right now as it didn’t get a nod from the ACE, which it was expected to do.

BEST EDITING

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, ACE

Minari – ACE

Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, CCA, Mank – ACE, CCA, Tenet – CCA

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

Hillbilly Elegy – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

Mank – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

Birds of Prey – MUAH

Pinocchio – BAFTA, MUAH

Could Jump In: Emma. – CCA, The Glorias, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey – MUAH

BEST SOUND

Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

News of the World – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

Mank – CAS, MPSE

Greyhound – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

Soul – BAFTA, MPSE

Could Jump In: Nomadland – BAFTA, MPSE, Tenet – MPSE, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CAS, MPSE, The Midnight Sky – MPSE

My instincts are telling me to put in Birds of Prey instead of Welcome to Chechnya here but I just can’t bring myself to do it since it did not get any nominations from the Visual Effects Society.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Tenet – BAFTA, CCA, VES

The Midnight Sky – BAFTA, CCA, VES

Mulan – BAFTA, CCA, VES

Welcome to Chechnya – VES

The One and Only Ivan – BAFTA, VES

Could Jump In: Birds of Prey, Mank – CCA, VES, Soul – BAFTA, VES

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Soul – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

News of the World – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

Minari – BAFTA, CCA, HMMA, SCL

The Midnight Sky – CCA, GG, HMMA

Could Jump In: Tenet, The Little Things

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

One Night in Miami – CCA, GG, HMMA

The Life Ahead – CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, HMMA

Eurovision Song Contest – CCA, HMMA, SCL

All In: The Fight for Democracy – HMMA

Could Jump In: Giving Voice – HMMA, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, HMMA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – SCL, Minari – HMMA

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Another Round – GG, BAFTA, CCA

Quo Vadis, Aida? – BAFTA

Two of Us – GG, CCA

I’m No Longer Here

Night of the Kings

Could Jump In: Collective – CCA, Dear Comrades! – BAFTA, La Llorona – GG, CCA

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Time – CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA

Collective – BAFTA, CEH, IDA

Crip Camp – CCA, IDA

Welcome to Chechnya – DGA, IDA

Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA, PGA

Could Jump In: The Truffle Hunters – DGA, PGA, IDA, Boys State – CEH, DGA, All In: The Fight for Democracy, My Octopus Teacher – BAFTA, CCA

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

The Letter Room

The Human Voice

Two Distant Strangers

Feeling Through

The Present

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Colette

Hunger Ward

A Love Song for Latasha

A Concerto is a Conversation

Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

If Anything Happens I Love You

Out

Opera

Burrow

Kapaemahu

March 15, 2021
February Oscar Nominations Predictions

Key:

CCA – Critics Choice Awards

SAG – Screen Actors Guild Awards

GG – Golden Globes

AFI – American Film Institute pick

WGA – Writers’ Guild

USC – USC Scripter awards

As I explain in this post, I think there will be eight nominations in this category this year and my eight picks are, as of right now, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Mank, Minari, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If Judas and the Black Messiah ends up with a PGA nomination, I think it will be the 9^th nominee.

BEST PICTURE

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama), AFI

Nomadland – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG (Drama)

Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

Minari – CCA, SAG, GG (Foreign), AFI

One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, AFI

Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, AFI

Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI

The Father – GG (Drama)

Could Jump In: Sound of Metal – CCA, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Soul – AFI, First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, The Mauritanian

While I do think the backlash to Spike Lee not getting a nomination at the Globes could vault him to a spot here, Emerald Fennell looks poised to take her position here on the strength of Promising Young Woman’s upward surge.

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – CCA, GG

David Fincher – Mank – CCA, GG

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG

Regina King – One Night in Miami – CCA, GG

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG

Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – CCA

If Lindo gets BAFTA he will be nominated but if Yeun does he will get nominated because I think it is very likely that the foursome of Boseman, Hopkins, Ahmed, and Oldman will be nominated at BAFTA as well (especially because three of them are British).

BEST ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

Anthony Hopkins – The Father – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

Gary Oldman – Mank – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA

Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari – SAG, CCA, Tom Hanks – News of the World – CCA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG (Drama), Ben Affleck – The Way Back – CCA, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

This slate of five seems essentially locked as nobody on the outside looking in seems like they have enough to jump in. However, this could be that surprise category where someone like Sidney Flanigan jumps in at the last second.

BEST ACTRESS

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

Frances McDormand – Nomadland – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG (Drama), CCA

Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie – CCA, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy – SAG, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA

Even though I am not sure about his film getting nominated for Best Picture, Daniel Kaluuya, I think, will win this as his performance as exactly the kind of performance the Academy likes to award in this category. The question here is who will be the two men that will fill the last two spots? Well, I think Raci should be getting one of them and it will be between Murray and Boseman to fit the last spot. Apple+ really has only one thing to campaign this Oscar season and that is Bill Murray in On the Rocks so going by that I’m going to place Murray here instead of Boseman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, SAG, GG

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, GG

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, SAG, GG

Paul Raci – Sound of Metal – CCA

Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG

Could Jump In: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, Jared Leto – The Little Things – SAG, GG

SAG does have a habit of nominating young people in this category so I expected Zengel to get a nomination there. However, she also received a nomination from the Globes so maybe she has more of a chance than I had thought. But I am still going to hold off on picking her just yet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, SAG, GG

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, SAG, GG

Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG

Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – CCA, SAG

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA, SAG, GG (in lead)

Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World – SAG, GG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah

Trial and the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman have both received nominations at Critics Choice, the Golden Globes, and from the WGA. Mank received nods from the Globes and the CCA and was not eligible for the WGA. Minari and Soul were also not eligible for nomination from the WGA.

The dilemma with this category is that I am pretty sure about the first four receiving nominations but the last slot could be filled by either Soul, Judas and the Black Messiah, or Sound of Metal. Sound of Metal received nods from both the CCA and the WGA. I am going to go with ‘Judas’ because it is the biggest Best Picture contender of the three, but Sound of Metal and Soul both have a great chance here. Also, I still have a small feeling that Judas and the Black Messiah can win Best Picture (especially after watching it) and it needs this nomination to do that.

But it is also true that there is usually at least one film in the Original Screenplay nominated five that does not get a Best Picture nod.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG, WGA

Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, WGA

Mank – CCA, GG

Minari – CCA

Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA

Could Jump In: Soul, Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs – WGA

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nomadland – CCA, GG, USC

One Night in Miami – CCA, USC, WGA

The Father – CCA, GG

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, USC, WGA

First Cow – CCA, USC

Could Jump In: News of the World – CCA, WGA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, The White Tiger – WGA

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Soul – GG

Wolfwalkers – GG

Over the Moon – GG

Onward – GG

Bombay Rose

Could Jump In: The Croods: A New Age – GG, No. 7 Cherry Lane, The Willoughbys, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Mank – CCA,

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

News of the World – CCA

Tenet – CCA

Emma. – CCA

Could Jump In: Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mulan

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nomadland – CCA

Mank – CCA

News of the World – CCA

Tenet – CCA

Minari – CCA

Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, One Night in Miami, First Cow, Da 5 Bloods

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

Mank – CCA

Emma. – CCA

News of the World

Mulan – CCA

Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Promising Young Woman – CCA, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, The Glorias, The United States vs Billie Holiday

BEST FILM EDITING

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA

Nomadland – CCA

Mank – CCA

Tenet – CCA

Sound of Metal – CCA

Could Jump In: The Father – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Promising Young Woman

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

Hillbilly Elegy – CCA

Emma. – CCA

Mank – CCA

Birds of Prey

Could Jump In: Pinocchio, The United States vs Billie Holiday – CCA, Promising Young Woman – CCA

BEST SOUND

Sound of Metal

Tenet

The Midnight Sky

Mank

Soul

Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Tenet – CCA

The Midnight Sky – CCA

Mank – CCA

Mulan – CCA

Birds of Prey

Could Jump In: Welcome to Chechnya, Soul, The One and Only Ivan

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Soul – CCA, GG

Mank – CCA, GG

News of the World – CCA, GG

Minari – CCA

Da 5 Bloods

Could Jump In: Tenet – GG, CCA, The Midnight Sky – GG, CCA, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Little Things

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

One Night in Miami – GG, CCA

The Life Ahead – GG, CCA

Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA

All In: The Fight for Democracy

Eurovision Song Contest – CCA

Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, Minari, Giving Voice

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Another Round – CCA, GG

Collective – CCA

Two of Us – CCA, GG

Quo Vadis, Aida?

Night of the Kings

Could Jump In: La Llorona – CCA, GG, I’m No Longer Here, Dear Comrades!

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Time – CCA

Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA (win)

Collective

Crip Camp – CCA

Boys State

Could Jump In: Welcome to Chechnya, All In: The Fight for Democracy, The Truffle Hunters

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

If Anything Happens I Love You

Burrow

Out

Kapaemahu

Opera

Could Jump In: The Snail and the Whale, To Gerard

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

The Letter Room

The Human Voice

Two Distant Strangers

White Eye

Da Yie

Could Jump In: Feeling Through, The Present

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Colette

Hunger Ward

A Love Song for Latasha

What Would Sophia Loren Do?

The Speed Cubers

Could Jump In: Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa, A Concerto is a Conversation, Do Not Split

February 17, 2021
‘Judas and the Black Messiah’ is my new pick for Best Picture

Judas and the Black Messiah is my new pick for Best Picture. The film premiered at the Sundance Film Festival last night to glowing reviews (its Metascore is currently an 86). What a film needs to be to win in this day and age is timely/relevant and conventionally entertaining. 4 of the 5 last Best Picture-winning films (except for maybe The Shape of Water) could be put in both of those categories.

Peter Debruge of Variety calls the film “explosive” and “indisputably timely” in his review and those are exactly the kind of words that I was looking for and I truly do believe that this film will win Best Picture.

Nomadland is the frontrunner for most people and was my frontrunner but I do not think it is a conventionally entertaining movie. It has the most support from the critics, but like ‘Roma’ two years ago, it could falter because the average moviegoer might find it “boring”.

From the reviews I have seen, ‘Judas’ is the opposite of boring and it is timely so it has everything it needs to win Best Picture. The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman also have the qualities I mentioned above but Judas and the Black Messiah seems comparatively more relevant considering this past year with the massive racial justice protests we have seen across the country.

So, with all that said, I’ll probably have Judas and the Black Messiah in the top spot in my predictions this month.

February 2, 2021
January Oscar Predictions

We’re at the stage in the game where we essentially know what films will be considered. In my view, there are 13 films that have a good chance to get a Best Picture nomination, the ten I put in my predictions and News of the World, Soul, and Sound of Metal. 6 of these films (Nomadland, ‘Trial’, Mank, ‘Ma Rainey’, Minari, and ‘One Night’) I think are essentially locked in for a nomination while the rest will probably shuffle around until nomination morning on March 15^th.

I was thinking of leaving out Da 5 Bloods from my nominations this month, but the film has continued to stay relevant in the race due to the enormous attention it has received from the critics’ awards in a variety of categories. It seems this film, even though it was released in June, will be remembered come Oscar nomination morning.

At this point in the race, I think there are only 3 films that can win Best Picture Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Judas and the Black Messiah. The first two have been widely-seen and are generally well-liked by both the critics and public. However, Judas and the Black Messiah has not been seen by the general public but early word is very good and if this movie makes a big impact with critics then this film will shoot up on this list.

This is the first time I have Promising Young Woman in the top 10 and I think it will stay there since due to this category’s use of the preferential ballot, films with a passionate following benefit, which is something this film has in spades.

I’m keeping The Father and News of the World as they are films that will likely appeal to the “old guard” of the Academy but at the same I don’t see as much passion behind them and something like Da 5 Bloods, Soul, or Sound of Metal could easily take up one of their slots.

BEST PICTURE

Nomadland (Searchlight)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

Minari (A24)

Mank (Netflix)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

One Night in Miami (Amazon)

Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

The Father (Sony Classics)

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

Promising Young Woman (Focus)

Could Jump In: News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, The United States vs Billie Holliday, Malcolm and Marie, On the Rocks, The Prom, Cherry

Chloe Zhao does not look like she can lose this at this point in the race. Something may change but Zhao is the director of a top 3 Best Picture contender and has won essentially all of the critics’ awards so far for Best Director.

To me, Zhao, Fincher, and Sorkin are all but assured a nomination with the bottom two slots being more of a question mark.

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

David Fincher – Mank

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Regina King – One Night in Miami

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

Could Jump In: George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Florian Zeller – The Father

Like Zhao in director, there doesn’t seem to be a way that Boseman loses this. His performance has been getting plaudits from everywhere and while he is not far and away the leader in critics’ awards he has won at the ones that are more predictive of success at the Oscars.

I had trouble leaving Yeun out of the top five and if Mank continues to receive a mostly tepid reception from the public and critics’ groups, Oldman might drop out. Ahmed, Boseman, and Lindo are the actors receiving the most attention from the critics’ groups and while I didn’t have Ahmed in here last month his performance (and his film for that matter) is gaining notices.

BEST ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Gary Oldman – Mank

Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Hanks – News of the World, John David Washington – Malcolm and Marie, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

Carey Mulligan is slowly but surely rising up the ranks as her performance continues to get more and more recognition. She and McDormand are getting most of the attention in this category from critics’ groups, but don’t underestimate Davis who would become only the second-ever Black woman to win in this category (Halle Berry won for Monster’s Ball in 2002).

Zendaya is coming off a surprise Emmy win and her performance in Malcolm and Marie is being praised as one of the best of the year by the critics that have seen the film. That Emmy momentum could propel Zendaya in to the top five but she would likely replace either Kirby or Day.

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holliday

Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm and Marie, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Meryl Streep – The Prom

Daniel Kaluuya is getting raves from the few reviews of Judas and the Black Messiah that are out there and I don’t really see him not being a nominee. Odom Jr. and Baron Cohen are definitely his Kaluuya’s main competition in this category and either of these actors playing historical figures could win.

Paul Raci has (by far) won the most critics’ awards in this category and that catapults him into the top five this month. I don’t see him winning because his film is not a frontrunner but it’s definitely a possibility.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, David Strathairn – Nomadland

I don’t see anybody outside of my top six listed here getting nominated in this category. However, choosing that one actress that will get left out is difficult. But I’m going to go with Close since her film was widely panned.

Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-Jung have won most of the critics’ awards in this category but they both have things working against them. Bakalova’s performance was in a comedy and as purely comedic performances hardly ever get nominated, Bakalova has to work through that barrier.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amanda Seyfried – Mank

Olivia Colman – The Father

Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Promising Young Woman

Mank

Minari

Judas and the Black Messiah

Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Soul, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, Sound of Metal

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

The Father

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

First Cow

Could Jump In: News of the World, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Soul

Wolfwalkers

Onward

Over the Moon

Earwig and the Witch

Could Jump In: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Lupin III: The First, Trolls: World Tour, Demon Slayer

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Mank

News of the World

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

The Personal History of David Copperfield

Mulan

Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, The Prom, Tenet

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nomadland

Mank

News of the World

Tenet

Judas and the Black Messiah

Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Emma

Mulan

The United States vs Billie Holiday

Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, News of the World, The Prom, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST FILM EDITING

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nomadland

Mank

News of the World

One Night in Miami

Could Jump In: Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Father, Da 5 Bloods

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Hillbilly Elegy

Mank

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

The United States vs Billie Holiday

Could Jump In: Bill and Ted Face the Music, The Prom, Birds of Prey, Emma., Mulan

BEST SOUND

Sound of Metal

Tenet

The Midnight Sky

Mank

Soul

Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Prom, The Invisible Man

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Tenet

The Midnight Sky

Greyhound

The Invisible Man

Mulan

Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Mank, Sonic the Hedgehog, Birds of Prey, The One and Only Ivan

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Soul

Mank

News of the World

Minari

The Midnight Sky

Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, The Little Things, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

One Night in Miami

The Life Ahead

Over the Moon

All In: The Fight for Democracy

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Could Jump In: The Prom, Trolls: World Tour, Miss Americana, The Outpost, The One and Only Ivan

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Dick Johnson is Dead

Crip Camp

All In: The Fight For Democracy

Time

Totally Under Control

Could Jump In: Boys State, Collective, The Truffle Hunters, Welcome to Chechnya, John Lewis: Good Trouble, The Way I See It, MLK/FBI

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Another Round

Night of the Kings

I’m No Longer Here

Collective

Quo Vadis, Aida?

Could Jump In: A Sun, Charlatan, Two of Us, Dear Comrades!, The Auschwitz Report

January 23, 2021