Tag: awards insights

The critics’ awards have just started up and while they likely will not influence the Oscars as much as they have done in the past (because this year’s ceremony is in April and that is pretty far off from the critics’ awards which happen mostly in January), they still provide an indication of what films the critics will be pushing this Oscar season. This year, Nomadland (which was expected) and First Cow (less expected, but still expected) have performed very well at these early critics’ awards. Da 5 Bloods has also benefited greatly from these awards and I feel more confident about having the Spike Lee feature in my Best Picture lineup. Mank, however, has not gotten the success expected for it in these awards and while it definitely will get a Best Picture nominations its chances of winning are sliding slowly.

Since most of these critics’ awards are only considering movies that came out in the 2020 calendar year, films that will likely release in 2021 like Judas and the Black Messiah are not eligible. However, I think that if ‘Judas’ is as good as I hope it will be and receives at least an 86 Metascore once it releases it has a great shot at winning Best Picture. That’s because, as it is right now, there are no films that feel like true frontrunners. No film so far has hit the timely and conventionally entertaining combination a film needs to have to win Best Picture. I think ‘Judas’ could have that combination but I’m going to stay cautious on it until it releases.

But, if nothing changes it will be between Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as they both have critics’ support (Nomadland much more than ‘Trial’, but still), timeliness or relevance, and accessibility to wide audiences.

I am going to be talking a lot about the critics’ awards that are happening all around the country throughout the post, however I think it is important to mention that they have a diminished influence on the final outcome due to the Oscars being moved later in the year. So they are less relevant and while they still will likely provide an indication of where the Oscars will go I think it is important to exercise caution when using them to create your predictions. Also, only four significant critics’ bodies have released their winners at the time of this post so there are more than a dozen more to go and therefore the people who have won so far may not be a great indication of who the critics’ bodies are going to align towards when all is said and done.

BEST PICTURE

Nomadland

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Minari

One Night in Miami

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Da 5 Bloods

News of the World

Could Jump In: Soul, Promising Young Woman, First Cow, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, Pieces of a Woman, The Mauritanian, Tenet, Sound of Metal, The Prom, Another Round

 

Chloe Zhao seems like the clear frontrunner at this point. However, even though Mank has not received as much love as most thought it would, Fincher still has that overdue narrative going as he has never won an Oscar in his storied and prolific career. Still, Zhao has received the most acclaim this year by far so I think she has the best shot at winning this.

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

David Fincher – Mank

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Regina King – One Night in Miami

George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Could Jump In: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Florian Zeller – The Father, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Kelly Reichardt – First Cow, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Kornel Mondruzco – Pieces of a Woman

 

Chadwick Boseman seems like a lock to win this category even though we are four months away from the ceremony. His performance is being lauded throughout the industry as spectacular and nobody else in this category is getting nearly the amount of recognition as he is so I don’t really see something happening here unless something changes drastically on the road to the Oscars.

I also think Hopkins, Lindo, and Oldman are pretty much cemented for nominations as they all are getting notices from critics (especially Lindo, who has won Best Actor at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, and Hopkins who has won Best Actor at the Boston Film Critics Circle Awards). At this stage, the fifth spot is, in my mind, between Steven Yeun for Minari and Riz Ahmed for the Sound of Metal. Since Minari is a film that I think will get a Best Picture nomination I think Yeun will get in but do not count out Ahmed as he delivers a powerful turn in Sound of Metal.

BEST ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Gary Oldman – Mank

Steven Yeun – Minari

Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, Colin Firth – Supernova

 

Viola Davis is one of the best actors of her generation and that power is really expressed in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom where, according to the critics’ consensus, she gives one of her career-best performances. Frances McDormand also has been getting a lot of positive attention for her performance in Nomadland and while I don’t see her winning this I think that she should not be counted out.

Of the four significant critics’ groups that have released their winners so far, Sidney Flanigan has won two of them. What this shows is that critics are trying to make sure that Academy voters do not forget Never Rarely Sometimes Always and its lead actress. Promising Young Woman’s wins in Best Actress and Best Screenplay at Los Angeles also continue that trend of critics reminding Academy voters of films that were talked about pre-COVID.

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday

Could Jump In: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

 

This race is by far the most wide-open of the acting races. I don’t feel as confident about any of these men getting a nomination as I do about the frontrunners in most other categories. I feel like this category is very subject to change, but I do think that if Judas and the Black Messiah ends up as good as I hope it will be and becomes a contender for a Best Picture win, Kaluuya might win this category for his portrayal of Fred Hampton.

The four critics’ awards have gone to three different people here: Chadwick Boseman for Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci has won two for Sound of Metal, and Glynn Turman won one today for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Of these three, I think that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will be the bigger Best Picture player so I think that Turman will receive his first Oscar nomination for his performance this year. However, don’t be surprised if Boseman becomes a double nominee or if Raci breaks into the top five.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Bill Murray – On the Rocks

Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Could Jump In: Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci – Sound of Metal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7

 

Even though Mank is falling off a little bit, Amanda Seyfried is staying strong. Her performance has continued to be talked about and while she has not won a critics’ group award yet she was the runner-up at both Boston and Los Angeles which is good for a performer from a more mainstream film like Mank.

Minari’s Yuh-Jung Youn and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’s Maria Bakalova have split the critics’ awards so far, but I am hesitant to add Bakalova to the top five due to the Academy’s long-standing bias over comedic acting. However, the quality of her performance became national news due to its victim so she might be in the top five by next month.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amanda Seyfried – Mank

Olivia Colman – The Father

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

Could Jump In: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite, Swankie – Nomadland, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Ariana DeBose – The Prom

 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is an Aaron Sorkin film and as it is also a big Best Picture player I think it is virtually locked for a nomination. Mank also seems like a lock here and the screenplay being from David Fincher’s late father, Jack Fincher, can only help its chances.

Promising Young Woman and Never Rarely Sometimes Always have both one screenplay award a piece but I think that Promising Young Woman is more likely to get a nomination due to its scathing social commentary.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Mank

Minari

Soul

Promising Young Woman

Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Palm Springs, On the Rocks, The Forty Year-Old Version, Sound of Metal

 

While Nomadland isn’t really a “talky” film there are many profound nuggets of wisdom found throughout the screenplay and that could push it through. The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami are all based on plays so they may be more appealing in this category as voters love the powerful monologues seen throughout theater-based films.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nomadland

The Father

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

One Night in Miami

News of the World

Could Jump In: First Cow, Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, The White Tiger, The Mauritanian, The Prom

 

Even though Wolfwalkers has one most of the critics’ awards, Soul is very critically-acclaimed and is an original Pixar movie so it’s hard to see this going to Wolfwalkers.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Soul

Wolfwalkers

Over the Moon

Earwig and the Witch

Onward

Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Rumble

 

This award often rewards nostalgia like it did last year when Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won here. Mank’s impeccable recreation of 1930’s Hollywood is going to appeal to that nostalgia and the film seems like an early lock in this race.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Mank

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

News of the World

Mulan

One Night in Miami

Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, Emma, The Trial of the Chicago 7

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Mank

Nomadland

News of the World

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Tenet

Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Mank

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Emma

The Personal History of David Copperfield

Mulan

Could Jump In: News of the World, One Night in Miami, Ammonite, The Prom, The World to Come

 

BEST FILM EDITING

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Mank

Nomadland

News of the World

Judas and the Black Messiah

Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

The Prom

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Birds of Prey

Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Emma

 

BEST SOUND

Tenet

Sound of Metal

Mank

Soul

The Midnight Sky

Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, The Outpost, The Invisible Man, Wonder Woman 1984

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Midnight Sky

Tenet

Wonder Woman 1984

Mulan

Sonic the Hedgehog

Could Jump In: The Invisible Man, Birds of Prey, Greyhound, Mank, Greenland

 

I feel like Soul might be the only locked nomination in this category as Soul has been getting love from the critics’ groups (it won at both Los Angeles and Boston Online) and it is rare that an animated film gets recognition in any category from these critics’ groups.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Soul

Mank

The Midnight Sky

News of the World

Minari

Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Let Them All Talk

 

Diane Warren has received 11 Oscar nominations without a win and with a relatively weak slate in this category this may be her year to finally win the prize as she wrote a song for The Life Ahead.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The Life Ahead

Over the Moon

One Night in Miami

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Trolls: World Tour

Could Jump In: The Prom, The Outpost, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The One and Only Ivan, Eurovision Song Contest

 

Another Round did amazing at the European Film Awards and even though it is a slightly unconventional winner here it is from the respected Thomas Vinterberg who has directed the masterpieces Festen and The Hunt. And even though critics have not quite taken to it at the level they have for past winners, (its Metascore is a 79, and while that is pretty good it is a far cry from the past two winners in this category: last year’s Parasite at 96 and 2018’s Roma at 96 as well) I think it is the frontrunner as of now. Still, I think that it needs a little bit more for it to be in the Best Picture nomination conversation like past winners have been.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Another Round

Collective

Night of the Kings

Quo Vadis, Aida?

I’m No Longer Here

Could Jump In: A Sun, The Auschwitz Report, My Little Sister, Charlatan, Notturno, Never Gonna Snow Again

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Totally Under Control

John Lewis: Good Trouble

Crip Camp

Collective

Dick Johnson is Dead

Could Jump In: Boys State, Time, All In: The Fight for Democracy, MLK/FBI, Welcome to Chechnya