Awards Insights

Category: Oscar

Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture And Best Director

Six films: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, and Elvis are undeniably locked for Picture nominations. All Quiet on the Western Front and Avatar: the Way of the Water follow close behind though I can see there being a world where either of the two films miss (maybe wishful thinking for the latter?).

The last two slots are a lot trickier in my eyes and I have honestly spent hours trying to decide on the films that will make those last two slots. There are four films that I think can get those last two slots: The Whale, Babylon, Women Talking, and Triangle of Sadness.

One thing I am looking at is what films have passion behind them. The IMDb scores of these four films are as follows: The Whale (8.0), Babylon (7.5), Women Talking (7.5 on 2.1K ratings), and Triangle of Sadness (7.5). All of these films are relatively well-liked across the board, though Women Talking having lower than 2500 ratings is concerning especially when the other three all have over 15K (Triangle of Sadness is at 63K).

As mentioned previously, The Whale has had a recent surge, having the best limited release of a 2022 film (yes, even over its A24 sibling Everything Everywhere All at Once). Brendan Fraser is the frontrunner in the Best Actor race and the last time a Best Actor winner won without his film being nominated for Best Picture was 13 years ago when Jeff Bridges won for Crazy Heart. With The Whale getting nominated at PGA, Hong Chau surging in Best Supporting Actress, and the film being locked for both Adapted Screenplay (where I believe it may win) and Best Hair & Makeup, I think I can confidently slot it in.

The last slot is a lot more complicated. Women Talking being completely snubbed by BAFTA, even in Adapted Screenplay where many are predicting it to be the Oscar winner, was a very troubling sign. It received a SAG ensemble nom yet didn’t get anything for any of its actors. As someone whose seen the film, I am not sure the Academy will fall for a film that feels so non-narrative. While there is a clear story in the film, the vast majority of the film takes place over the span of a few days and mainly consists of women discussing whether they should leave a Mennonite colony as many have been victims of rape from the colony’s men. It’s a good film, I just don’t think it’s getting the level of attention or generating the kind of conversation that a film like it needs to get the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place votes needed to be nominated for Best Picture.

So that leaves Babylon and Triangle of Sadness. To me, Babylon’s haul is very reminiscent of last year’s Nightmare Alley. It is helmed by someone who has won Best Director in the past, did well at CCA (getting a Picture nod and multiple other nominations), was restricted to just 3 technical categories at BAFTA, and boasts an ensemble cast of well-known stars and character actors. I honestly think Babylon might be stronger than Nightmare Alley since it also has SAG and Globe nods while Nightmare Alley just had CCA. But the question is, is Triangle of Sadness stronger than both films?

The Palme D’Or winner has been in the conversation since May and of the overtly anti-capitalist high-profile films of the year (The Menu, Glass Onion, etc.), it is the best. As evidenced by it winning the biggest prize at Cannes, it’s definitely a film that inspires passion from its fans. The thing I am wondering is will enough people love it? Drive My Car got in last year without any precursor nominations because many people touted it as the best film of the year, it was a no-brainer after it won critics’ trifecta (NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC).

Even though it’s a tired trope in Best Picture nominees, I am going to go with Babylon because at its core, it’s an ode to the film industry with bug stars, extravagant sets, and an audacious story. it checks way too many boxes of what oftentimes gets in here and for the biggest category of the morning I guess I’m going to play it safe.

BEST PICTURE

Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight) – AFI (Special Award), GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

The Fabelmans (Universal) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA

Tar (Focus) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

Elvis (Warner Bros.) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA

Avatar: the Way of the Water (20th Century) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA

The Whale (A24) – PGA

Babylon (Paramount) – GG, CCA, SAG

Could Jump In: Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG, Women Talking (MGM/UA) – CCA, SAG

This is category is famous for snubbing directors like Peter Farrelly and Aaron Sorkin. Directors who the members of the branch don’t see as auteurs or auteur-adjacent. Their directorial styles are either too indistinct or lack some sort of stylistic signature or vision that this branch likes to see. Will any of this year’s directors suffer the same fate?

Well, I can practically guarantee that The Daniels and Steven Spielberg are safe, both have very clear visions for their projects that would be appealing to a group of directors. McDonagh has missed in the past for Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri which was seen as a film driven by actors and screenplay more than by directing. This time around, McDonagh has done much better at the critics’ awards as a a director than he did for ‘Billboards’, but I still think Field is more likely to be nominated (especially with an endorsement from Scorsese himself).

Will BAFTA help fill the last slot in this category once again? It seems so, though Berger may not be the filmmaker that accomplishes that. Edward Berger is not like past surprise director nominees in this category like Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Thomas Vinterberg, Pawel Pawilkowski, and Paul Thomas Anderson. Berger’s only director nomination for his work on ‘All Quiet’, other than BAFTA, came from the San Diego Film Critics Society. All four of these rceently-nominated directors are incredibly critically-acclaimed and have made films that were considered by critics to be in the top five of the years they released.

So, if Berger won’t fill the fifth slot, who will? To me, it’s between Ruben Ostlund and Park Chan-Wook. Both are definitely auteurs who have multiple acclaimed films under their belt, Ruben Ostlund with Force Majeure and The Square and Park with The Handmaiden, Oldboy, the rest of the Vengeance trilogy, and J.S.A.: Joint Security Area. Since Ostlund’s film is a bigger Picture contender, I am going to go with him but don’t count at the BAFTA-nominated Park as he is, in general, a much more respected filmmaker.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, DGA

Todd Field – Tar – CCA, DGA, BAFTA

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

Could Jump In: Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave – BAFTA, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis – GG, CCA

January 22, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between Paul Mescal and Tom Cruise. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and Cruise is in an unquestionable Best Picture nominee while Mescal is not (even though Aftersun should be!). Aftersun is a massive critics favorite and this is the category where it has the best chance for a nomination in. But it is still a very small movie and Cruise is one of the biggest actors of all-time in one of the biggest movies of the year. However, Cruise’s SAG miss is concerning is that was the guild where a big star like him should have landed (especially over someone like Bill Nighy in a small movie like Living). I think in the end, the quality of Paul Mescal’s performance will win out especially since the film peaked at the exact right time

BEST ACTOR

Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Bill Nighy – Living – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA

Sigh, if only Michelle Williams was submitted in Supporting for The Fabelmans, she would have the Oscar her career so rightly deserves. And now, she’s at risk of missing out on a nomination as there just doesn’t seem to be much passion for herperformance.

Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are beyond locked for nominations and while Viola Davis has also hit every precursor so far, I think there is a slight, though not very likely, chance that she gets the Lady Gaga treatment and gets snubbed even after hitting all the major precursors. This is because her film is not a top 13 Best Picture contender though Viola Davis is so beloved that she honestly could get in even if she did not hit as many precursors as she did.

While I didn’t have Ana de Armas in my predictions for months, now that she has hit 3 of the 4 major precursors, she cannot be ignored. We know how much the Academy loves biopic performances and especially depictions of stars of Hollywood’s past and de Armas has given an acclaimed turn as MARILYN MONROE. Basically, she is very very likely for a nomination.

Back to Michelle Williams. I want to put her here and she is in a top-three Best Picture contender. But The Fabelmans’ star seems to be falling as evidenced by its sole BAFTA nomination for Original Screenplay. Danielle Deadwyler on the other hand has passion behind her performance and I think she will get in here over Williams

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Viola Davis – The Woman King – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG, SAG, BAFTA

Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, Margot Robbie – Babylon – GG, CCA, Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

Ke Huy Quan is a lock for the win in this category and him, Brendan Gleeson, and Barry Keoghan are all locked for nominations after hitting all the major precursors. The next two slots however, seems to me a toss-up between seven actors (Paul Dano, Eddie Redmayne, Brad Pitt, Judd Hirsch, Albrecht Schuch, Brian Tyree Henry, and Ben Whishaw).

This category usually rewards actors that are connected with a top Best Picture contender and that’s why in the last ten years, only six nominees in this category (Robert Duvall for The Judge, Sylvester Stallone for Creed, Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, Christopher Plummer for All The Money in the World, and Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) have been their film’s sole nominee. In the cases of Duvall, Plummer, and Hanks, they were nominated as they were highly-respected and well-liked actors in the later third of their careers. Stallone and Dafoe were both top two contenders in their respective years and had either won multiple major precursors (Stallone) or was nominated at every major precursor (Dafoe). Shannon was a top three NSFC contender and had done well at the critics’ awards (while his costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson performed better at the major precursors and even won a Globe).

Of the seven who are vying for the last two slots, Paul Dano is the only one who both has at least two precursor nods under their belt and is in a top 13 Best Picture contender so I’m slotting him in as my fourth pick. None of the rest of the six are top two contenders or are legendary actors in the last third of their careers. That means that the last slot will either go to someone who has done very well at the critics’ awards or Eddie Redmayne. Brian Tyree Henry is the best performer of the former category, yet I feel like Causeway is too much of a non-entity for him to get nominated. But at the same time, Henry, like his Atlanta costar Lakeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah, has been putting in acclaimed performance after acclaimed performance, and could finally get his due from the Academy in a surprise pick. If Whishaw had a Critics Choice Award nomination this would be an easy decision, but he was snubbed scross the board and has not had the critical success that Henry has had.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA, SAG

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA

Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, SAG, BAFTA, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking, Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

The first two, Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon are locked for nominations. While Jamie Lee Curtis has hit all the precursors, having seen her performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once, I am not sure if it’s the kind of work that will get nominated here. Don’t get me wrong, she’s great in the film, it just doesn’t strike me as the kind of performance the Oscars would recognize, especially in comparison to Stephanie Hsu’s alternatingly intimidating and vulnerable work. I still think both will get nominated but watch out for a snub.

The Whale has had a last-minute surge with its PGA nod and both BAFTA and SAG nods for Hong Chau in Supporting Actress. She should be able to continue that momentum into the Oscars. I think that it is very likely that Dolly de Leon replaces someone among this group, yet I am not confident on who that will be so I will play it safe and keep her on the outside looking in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Hong Chau – The Whale – SAG, BAFTA

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, SAG

Could Jump In: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, BAFTA, Jessie Buckley – Women Talking – CCA, Janelle Monae – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA, Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG

January 22, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

This category is one of the closest to a sure thing. While I might prefer if Aftersun got the attention it deserves and gets nominated here, the fivesome of Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar, The Fabelmans, and Triangle of Sadness is far more likely. The first three films are unquestionable locks. Even BAFTA, which gave The Fabelmans only one nomination, let it have an Original Screenplay nod. Many are picking Triangle of Sadness for a Best Picture nod and while I don’t see the Palme d’Or winner being in contention for the Academy’s biggets prize, it’s the kind of audacious, out there film that this category recognizes.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, BAFTA

The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Tar – GG, CCA, BAFTA

The Fabelmans – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Triangle of Sadness – BAFTA

Could Jump In: Aftersun – CCA

The Whale and Women Talking are the only two films I think are locked in this category, everything else seems snubbable. I feel confident with Glass Onion as well since it has been pretty successful with the crafts and earned a PGA nod as well.

While this category isn’t known for nominating war films, 1917 was nominated for Best Original Screenplay in its year and ‘All Quiet’ is an adaptation of one of the most well-read works of literature ever written. As a result, I feel fairly confident in ‘All Quiet’ following the same path that Drive My Car did last year in this category (international feature that only had a BAFTA nod in this category before being nominated here at the Oscars).

The last slot is between Living and She Said who both received nominations from CCA, USC, and BAFTA. Both seem like traditional picks in this category, She Said the Spotlight-esque celebration of journalism with countless scenes centered in newsrooms, and Living the acclaimed remake of a classic piece of cinema (Ikiru) written by one of the most renowned authors alive today (Kazuo Ishiguro).

The BAFTA nominees this year were The Whale, All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, She Said, and The Quiet Girl. In the last few years the BAFTA nominees have been quite predictive of the Oscar slate except the BAFTA sometimes picks very British films that don’t make it into the Oscar slate. The Irish ‘The Quiet Girl’ definitely qualifies as that so I don’t see it getting nominated, but I’m wondering if Living is just a British BAFTA pick or something strong enough to receive an Oscar nod? Bill Nighy being a top five Best Actor contender and the film being nominated at CCA and USC seems to hint otherwise though I am not 100%.

I am going to go with Living because what kind of self-respecting writers branch won’t go for a Kazuo Ishiguro adaptation of Kurosawa’s Ikiru???

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Whale – CCA, BAFTA

Women Talking – GG, CCA, USC

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – CCA

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Living – CCA, USC, BAFTA

Could Jump In: She Said – CCA, USC, BAFTA

January 21, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

Four films, Top Gun: Maverick, All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of the Water, and Elvis, all made the slates of the major precursors.

To me the last slot is between Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Batman. The Batman is probably the most widely-acclaimed superhero movie of the year and this and Visual Effects are where those films get their flowers. But Everything Everywhere All at Once is the Best Picture winner and was the nominations leader at MPSE (although it did get snubbed at CAS). I think it will get in here based on the overwhelming support for the film and since it is an action-adventure film, which often do well in this category.

BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick – MPSE, CAS. BAFTA

Avatar: The Way of the Water – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

Elvis – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

Everything Everywhere All at Once – MPSE

Could Jump In: The Batman – MPSE, CAS

Even though RRR didn’t makes SCL’s nominations, I’m gonna write that off as it being an international film and still keep it as my winner prediction. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Top Gun: Maverick, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hit all the major precursors and, to my ears, fit the kind of norms this category usually goes for.

Taylor Swift’s song ‘Carolina’ for Where the Crawdad Sings, but the fact that it’s a song by TAYLOR SWIFT and has less than 50 million plays on Spotify is not a good sign and stands in stark contrast with the songs from Lady Gaga and Rihanna (which both have over 150 million plays each). So even though it hit all the major precursors (and that I think it’s one of the top five songs on the shortlist), I think will be snubbed for this year’s song from Diane Warren who has been nominated in all of the last FIVE years.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

RRR – GG, CCA

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, SCL

Top Gun: Maverick – GG, CCA, SCL

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA, SCL

Tell It Like a Woman – SCL

Could Jump In: Where the Crawdads Sing – GG, CCA, SCL, White Noise – CCA, Till, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Justin Hurwitz’s extravagant and bombastic music for Babylon and Alexandre Desplat’s at-one-moment-wondrous-and-devastating-in-the-next backing score for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio will be battling this category out until the end. John Williams’ score for The Fabelmans’ is being billed as the last of his career and as this an Academy that penciled him in for every one of the Star Wars sequel trilogy films, he is locked in my eyes. Hildur Guonadottir’s alternatingly ominous and comforting score for Women Talking seems quite likely to make it in as well.

The last slot is between The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and All Quiet on the Western Front. I am going to stay safe and go with ‘Banshees’ since it has the most precursor nods of the three, but I have a feeling that even though hardly any one is predicting it, Everything Everywhere All at Once has a dark horse shot of attaining a nod in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Babylon – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA

The Fabelmans – GG, CCA

Women Talking – GG, CCA

The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, SCL, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once – SCL, BAFTA, All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

January 21, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

The films that usually get in here usually fall into four categories: films centered around music, war films, sports films, sci-fi films, and the eventual Best Picture winner. There are obviously exceptions to this, but these are the kinds of films that are usually seen here. This year, five top-8 contenders fit this mold: Top Gun: Maverick, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, and All Quiet on the Western Front. Tar and Babylon also fit this mold as they are largely centered around music but I don’t see either of them getting in over ‘All Quiet’ or ‘Avatar’

This year, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) are releasing their nominations on February 1st, a week after the Oscar nominations so we won’t have that guild to help us in predicting this category.

BEST FILM EDITING

Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, BAFTA

Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, BAFTA

Elvis – CCA, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Avatar: The Way of Water – CCA

Could Jump In: The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA, Tar – CCA, The Fabelmans, Babylon – CCA

Top Gun: Maverick is the only sure thing in this category as I could see every other one of the films I picked getting snubbed. All Quiet on the Western Front has fantastic cinematography and now that it is a top 7 Picture contender, I don’t see why it wouldn’t be recognized. Roger Deakins has been the sole nominee for his film twice in the past (Prisoners, The Man Who Wasn’t There) and this will likely be the third as Empire of Light hit all major precursors.

If Elvis is nominated, which it is likely to, Mandy Walker will become only the third female cinematographer to receive a nomination in this category, joining Rachel Morrison for Mudbound and Ari Wegner for last year’s The Power of the Dog.

For me, the last slot was a toss-up between Babylon, The Batman, The Fabelmans, and Avatar 2. I ended up going with Babylon since I felt the film had to be a top 12 Best Picture contender (which excludes The Batman) and a BAFTA longlist selection (which excludes The Fabelmans and Avatar 2).

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Top Gun: Maverick – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Empire of Light – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

Elvis – ASC, BAFTA

Babylon – CCA

Could Jump In: The Batman – ASC, BAFTA, The Fabelmans – CCA, Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA, Bardo – ASC

Three films, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Elvis are locks here as they’ve either hit all the major precursors (Babylon and Elvis) or have won a major precursor and only missed one, (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, BAFTA wasn’t as big on the first film as the Oscars were so this is not a concern). As this branch seems to like only period or sci-fi/fantasy films and those three previously-mentioned films fit that criteria, I think they’re safe.

The Woman King is a top-15 Best Picture contender set in the 18th and 19th centuries with intricately-designed costumes. I would be surprised if it misses, especially as the film has been nominated at multiple of the guilds and as Viola Davis is a very-likely Best Actress nominee.

While this category loves period films, that period includes the 70s and before, anything after is not considered ‘period’ in what is the average age demographic of the Academy and so even if films are set around clothing or clothing tycoons (such as in the case of last year’s House of Gucci), they have a much lesser chance of being nominated here. That is a lucky thing for ‘Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris’ as it is both set around clothing and set in the 50s and seems poised for a nomination. Amsterdam, a BAFTA nominee, also has a chance of replacing ‘Mrs. Harris’ but while it is a film that would’ve been nominated a few years ago, the horrendousness of David O. Russell should keep the film from a nomination.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Elvis – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, CDG

The Woman King – CCA, CDG

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – CDG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Amsterdam – BAFTA, Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, CDG, The Fabelmans

January 21, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

This year, four films seem locked for a mention come Tuesday morning: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell With Shoes On, Turning Red, and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish being those four. They’ve hit all the major precursors and have the wide support needed to be confidently nominated in this category.

In my mind, the last slot is between My Father’s Dragon, Inu-Oh, Wendell & Wild and The Sea Beast. As Inu-Oh has the best ratings of the three (highest IMDb and Metacritic scores) and has another nod in addition to just the Annie nomination, it may be my pick to take the fifth slot but watch out for the previously-mentioned films as well. My Father’s Dragon is a Cartoon Saloon film and the Academy has shown their love for the studio in the past as every single other Cartoon Saloon film (Secret of the Kells, Song of the Sea, The Breadwinner, and Wolfwalkers) has been nominated in this category. However, all four of those films were nominated at either GG, CCA, or PGA or were critics’ favorites, none of which My Father’s Dragon has.

Another stat to consider is that in the last nine years, there has been at least one non-American made film nominated here. Of the films I have noted as contenders for that fifth spot, only My Father’s Dragon and Inu-Oh fit this mold. Between the two, I think the former better represents what the Academy usually nominates in this category and as much as I wnat them to, I doubt the Academy will ever nominate a Masaaki Yuasa film (sigh).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), BAFTA, PGA

Turning Red – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

My Father’s Dragon – Annie (Indie)

Could Jump In: Inu-Oh – GG, Annie (Indie), Wendell & Wild – CCA, Annie, The Sea Beast – Annie

Like with the previous category, four films seem essentially locked here: All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, Argentina, 1985, and Close (though I think Close is vulnerable for a surprise miss like A Hero last year).

This category is so unpredictable, there has been at least one massive shock nominee in the last three years. I would not be surprised if that happens again (even though there is a lower chance of that happening due to ANOTHER rule change which will allow all Academy members to opt in to voting in this category if they say they’ve seen all the shortlisted films), but I’m going to play it safe and go with The Quiet Girl, which I think will be a definite nominee if enough people see it, which if Academy members are honest about seeing all the shortlisted films, they will have.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

All Quiet on the Western Front – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Decision to Leave – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Argentina, 1985 – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Close – GG, CCA

The Quiet Girl – BAFTA

Could Jump In: EO, Bardo – CCA, Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, Corsage – BAFTA

Fire of Love has hit every precursor so far but it is a documentary built on mostly archival footage, which we see snubbed here time and time again. However, Critics Choice winner Good Night Oppy was already snubbed by not even being included in the longlists, so maybe the branch’s impulse to snub has already been exhausted.

One of the big four in this category (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Navalny, All That Breathes) will be snubbed, I just can’t decide on which one even though I can think of arguments for each. So essentially I really doubt that this is what the nominations look like, these are just the most likely nominees in my view.

Other than the four films with the most precursor nominations, Descendent is my pick the round out the top five. The Obamas’ production company Higher Ground has made two films eligible for the Oscar in this category, American Factory and Crip Camp, both of which were nominated (the former won). As a result, Descendent which is also critically-acclaimed and has both CCA and PGA nominations, seems pretty likely to continue this trend.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – IDA, CEH, BAFTA

Fire of Love – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

Navalny – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

All that Breathes – IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

Descendent – CCA, PGA

Could Jump In: The Territory – CEH, PGA, The Janes – IDA, Moonage Daydream – CCA, BAFTA, Bad Axe

January 20, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, and Animated Short

There are some topics that the Academy highlights in these categories consistently but other than that, predictions in these categories are essentially throwing darts at a map.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Le Pupille

An Irish Goodbye

The Red Suitcase

Warsha

Nakam

Could Jump In: Almost Home, The Lone Wolf

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Flagmakers

The Elephant Whisperers

How Do You Measure a Year?

38 at the Garden

Nuisance Bear

Could Jump In: Holding Moses, How Far Can They Run

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

New Moon

Save Ralph

The Flying Sailor

My Year of Dicks

Could Jump In: Ice Merchants, An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

January 20, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

Avatar: The Way of the Water will be taking this category (it received a record FOURTEEN nominations from the Visual Effects Society) and that truly isn’t up for debate. The question is, who will the four other nominees be?

Well, first off, the Visual Effects category is where the Academy recognizes the year’s most acclaimed blockbusters. Which means that Top Gun: Maverick, a definite Best Picture nominee, is almost guaranteed for a spot among the nominees. The Batman, which has received nominations from all the major precursors for this category as well, should also be pretty much secured for a nod.

The last two slots are difficult. In my eyes, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, All Quiet on the Western Front, Thirteen Lives, Nope, and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness all have a good chance of making it in. Even though the first Black Panther did not end up getting nominated, Coogler’s sequel features more elements that this branch traditionally likes, such as anthropomorphic creatures, underwater worlds, etc. And I think if Black Panther gets picked, that makes a Doctor Strange nod less likely, making the last slot a three-way fight between All Quiet on the Western Front, Nope, and Thirteen Lives. I have a feeling ‘All Quiet’ will be snubbed as war films often do miss here. While 1917 did win, both Dunkirk and Hacksaw Ridge were snubbed in this category. American Sniper and The Hurt Locker also missed in their respective years. That leaves Nope and Thirteen Lives and while a Thirteen Lives nod might follow in Deepwater Horizon’s footsteps and be nominated here, a Nope nod is also likely. Nope also has done pretty well at guild awards such as the CDG, MPSE, ADG, etc. (even though it missed at VES), which indicates there is a lot of support for it. And since this is the category where it’s most likely to get a nomination, that support might accumulate here.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: The Way of the Water – CCA, BAFTA, VES (14x)

Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, BAFTA, VES (3x)

The Batman – CCA, BAFTA, VES (3x)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, VES (1x)

Nope

Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA, Thirteen Lives – VES, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Both Babylon and Elvis have hit all the major precursors and are exactly the type of period extravaganzas that get nominated in this category.

The next three slots will be contested for by five films: Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and All Quiet on the Western Front. The first Avatar and Black Panther films won in this category, though among those two Avatar 2 is more likely for a nomination here as it is also a likely Best Picture nominee.

BAFTA usually gets at least three of its nominees nominated at the Oscars too. Other than Babylon and Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, and The Batman were chosen by BAFTA. The former two have the best chances but since All Quiet on the Western Front is the most likely Best Picture nominee I will go with it.

While the production and set design in Everything Everywhere All at Once has narrative importance, I don’t think the future Best Picture winner will be nominated solely because the category seems too competitive. The Fabelmans is a period piece and recreates some aspects of period Hollywood which is the kind of stuff the Academy adores. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is heavily favored to be nominated here but I honestly think that the novelty of the first one has worn off enough where this one doesn’t receive a nod but I could be wrong.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Babylon – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

Elvis – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

Avatar: The Way of the Water – CCA, ADG, SDSA

All Quiet on the Western Front – ADG, BAFTA

The Fabelmans – CCA, ADG, SDSA

Could Jump In: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, ADG, SDSA, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, ADG, SDSA, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – ADG, BAFTA

Three films hit all four precursors and all three fit the mold of a nominee in this category. So the question is what will fill in those last two slots?

To me, those last two slots are between Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Babylon, and Blonde. The former two make the most sense on paper since they are top 15 Best Picture contenders as well but Blonde features Ana de Armas transforming into Marilyn Monroe and that might be too appealing to the Academy to pass up.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

The Whale – CCA, MUAH, BAFTA

The Batman – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

Elvis – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, MUAH (2x)

Babylon – CCA, MUAH (2x)

Could Jump In: Blonde – MUAH (2x), All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA, Amsterdam – MUAH (2x)

January 20, 2023
Late December Oscar Predictions 2023

The Golden Globes, AFI, and Critics Choice awards have all been released and with them comes a clearer picture of what the Best Picture race will most probably end up looking like. At this point, I can essentially guarantee that EEAAO, The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Tar will be receiving Best Picture nods. They are the biggest contenders this year and other than hitting all the major precursors, they’ve also performed the best at the critics’ awards thus far.

The films that I see as very close to locked yet could also foresee a scenario where they don’t get a Best Picture nod are Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking, Babylon, and Elvis. All four of these films have done very well so far and have hit enough precursors for me to be confident in their inclusion, but a couple of factors here and there keep me from naming them guarantees.

That leaves two slots. One thing to note is that in the last four years, there has been at least one Netflix film nominated and, in the last three there have been two a year. In this year’s top eight, I have not included a Netflix film meaning that one of these last two slots will be filled by the streamer. RRR and Glass Onion are Netflix’s two biggest films this year and while both making it is a possibility, I don’t see it happening. RRR is the film with more passion and with a Best Director award from NYFCC and a CCA nod under its belt I can see the film being this year’s primarily non-English inclusion (the last four years have seen at least one primarily non-English film nominated). I am choosing Avatar 2 to fill in the last slot as of the remaining films it has hit the most precursors.

BEST PICTURE

Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), AFI

The Fabelmans (Universal) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), AFI (Special Award)

Tar (Focus) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

Women Talking (MGM) – CCA, AFI

Babylon (Paramount) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical)

Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

RRR (Netflix) – CCA

Avatar 2 (20th Century) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

Could Jump In: Aftersun, She Said (Universal) – AFI, Glass Onion (Netflix) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), The Woman King (Sony) – AFI, Till (MGM), Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG (Comedy/Musical), All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix), Bardo (Netflix), Decision to Leave (MUBI), Empire of Light (Searchlight), The Whale (A24)

Without DGA (the strongest predictor of this category), this category can be very hard to predict. However, I still believe I can safely say that Spielberg and the Daniels are pretty much locked and are the only two directors that have a realistic chance of taking this award come March. If RRR gets into Picture, I think NYFCC winner Rajamouli could follow it into Director in turn.

While The Fabelmans could very likely give Spielberg his third Director Oscar, I think Everything Everywhere All at Once is too strong and take Director, if not the trifecta of Picture, Director, and Screenplay.

BEST DIRECTOR

Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA

Todd Field – Tar – CCA

Sarah Polley – Women Talking – CCA

S.S. Rajamouli – RRR – CCA

Could Jump In: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, Damien Chazelle – Babylon – CCA, James Cameron – Avatar 2 – GG, CCA, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis – GG, CCA, Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness, Gina Prince-Blythewood – The Woman King – CCA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale

For the past five years in this category, the Critics Choice Awards have either chosen all of the eventual Oscar nominees or four. With that in mind, we can assume that at least four of Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, Paul Mescal, Bill Nighy, and Tom Cruise will be nominated. The former three (Farrell, Fraser, and Butler) are essentially locked for nominations at this point as they are far and away the leaders at the critics’ awards in terms of nominations. Which means at a minimum, at least one of Mescal, Nighy, or Cruise will be nominated. Since Bradley Cooper missed a Golden Globe nod in 2014, every eventual Best Actor nominee received a Golden Globe nomination en route to becoming an Oscar nominee (Banderas and Yeun being exceptions as films in contention for the Globes’ foreign language film prize couldn’t make their performances eligible for the lead acting categories until this year). With that in mind, Nighy, Jackman, and Calva are the most likely of the remaining seven Globe nominees to receive a nomination. Since Nighy is the only one with a CCA nod I’ll choose him and since Calva is essentially a newcomer I’ll go with Jackman even though Calva’s film is a much more likely Best Picture nominee.

This category often rewards very transformative performances. In just the last few years, we’ve seen Oldman as Churchill, Malek as Freddie Mercury, Phoenix as the Joker, and Smith as Richard Williams all win in this category. Of the three performances that are most likely to win in this category, Fraser’s and Butler’s are the transformative ones, while Farrell’s is relatively understated (and phenomenal). However, Fraser’s The Whale has an incredibly slim chance of receiving a Best Picture nomination

The last time a winner in this category has won for a performance in a film not nominated for Best Picture was Jeff Bridges for 2009’s Crazy Heart. This category especially

BEST ACTOR

Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG (Drama), CCA

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG (Comedy/Musical), CCA

Austin Butler – Elvis – GG (Drama), CCA

Bill Nighy – Living – GG (Drama), CCA

Hugh Jackman – The Son – GG (Drama)

Could Jump In: Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, Diego Calva – Babylon – GG (Comedy/Musical), Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, Adam Driver – White Noise – GG (Comedy/Musical), Daniel Craig – Glass Onion – GG (Comedy/Musical), Song Kang-Ho – Broker

The CCA nominees are Blanchett, Yeoh, Deadwyler, Williams, Davis, and Robbie and I think the five eventual Oscar Actress nominees will come from this six. The question is which one of these six will miss. Past history implies that a Globe nod is usually required to be nominated for an Oscar in this category later on (the last time a Best Actress nominee was nominated without a Globe nod was Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years), which would mean Davis and Robbie receiving nominations as Deadwyler was snubbed by the Globes. If Robbie receives a SAG nom I don’t see her missing but until then I’ll stick with Davis and Deadwyler.

The biggest mystery with this category is who will end up triumphing between Blanchett and Yeoh. Both are phenomenal and completely deserving. I think Yeoh has the zeitgeist but I feel like Blanchett is responsible for a performance that I believe is more like what Oscar usually rewards in this category. I am going to with Blanchett for now, but I think Yeoh has a 49% chance of winning this at this point, we need the precursors to be sure.

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – Tar – CCA, GG (Drama)

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical)

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – CCA, GG (Drama)

Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA

Viola Davis – The Woman King – CCA, GG (Drama)

Could Jump In: Margot Robbie – Babylon – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Olivia Colman – Empire of Light – GG (Drama), Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG (Drama), Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande – GG (Comedy/Musical), Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway

At least three of the Globe nominees will be nominated for the Oscar (most likely) and at least four of the Critics Choice nominees will be nominated for the Oscar. Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are locked as they’ve hit the most precursors by far. Even though Paul Dano surprisingly missed at the Globes, I think he’s pretty much locked as well. I have a feeling either Keoghan or Hirsch (but not both) will be nominated and since Keoghan made both GG and CCA, he seems most poised to be nominated. Whishaw’s role seems like one that is often nominated here and if he gets a SAG nod, he should follow that up with a nod from Oscar as well, but he needs that SAG nod if he even wants that to be a consideration.

Though Gleeson has a pretty solid shot at winning this, Quan has won the most critics’ awards by a wide margin and being in what is presumed to be this year’s Best Picture winner can’t hurt him.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA

Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

Could Jump In: Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans – CCA, Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA, Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness, Michael Ward – Empire of Light

This is one of the hardest major categories to predict at this point as everything feels so up-in-the-air and no performance seems safe for a nomination except for Kerry Condon. Having watched The Banshees of Inisherin, I can confirm that Condon is fantastic but I’m really not sure her performance is of the kind that the academy likes to award in this category. However, none of the biggest contenders have a performance that traditionally would win in this category, meaning that Condon will be my pick to win it for now (If Michelle Williams was category frauded and entered into Supporting she would’ve taken this easily).

Hsu, Curtis, and Buckley are all in likely Best Picture nominees so I’ll go with them as the next three. That leaves the last slot between Chau, Monae, Foy, Mulligan, and Bassett. I don’t see Women Talking getting two of its actresses in so that leaves out Foy. Even though she’s done very well at the precursors I still don’t see a superhero performance getting nominated even if Bassett is deserving. While Monae and Chau are doing very well with the critics’ groups, I think I’m going to go with the twice-nominated Mulligan to receive her third.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG

Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG

Could Jump In: Janelle Monae – Glass Onion, Hong Chau – The Whale, Claire Foy – Women Talking, Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, Nina Hoss – Tar, Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King

Either 4 or 5 of the Critics Choice nominees in this category have been nominated for the O. Screenplay Oscar in this category. The first four seem almost locked and the last slot is really between Triangle of Sadness, Aftersun, and Babylon. I’ll go with Cannes winner Triangle of Sadness as it has been giving attention in other categories such as Director and Supporting Actress and this seems like the best place for the fans of the film in the Academy to award it.

While I think Everything Everywhere All at Once will take this if Spielberg ends up winning Director, McDonagh has won the most critics awards so far and I give him a 50.1% chance of taking this.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA

Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA

The Fabelmans – GG, CCA

Tar – GG, CCA

Triangle of Sadness

Could Jump In: Aftersun – CCA, Babylon, The Menu, Elvis, Nope

Women Talking is most likely going to take this and I think Polley’s screenplay and Glass Onion are pretty much locked here for nominations. Living is a screenplay written by legendary author Kazuo Ichiguro adapting one of the most important films of the 50s: Kurosawa’s Ikiru. If that’s not screenplay branch bait, I don’t know what is. White Noise is Noah Baumbach’s adaptation of the seminal Don DeLillo novel and I think it has a great chance of being a spoiler contender come nominations morning.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Women Talking – GG, CCA

Glass Onion – CCA

The Whale – CCA

Living – CCA

White Noise

Could Jump In: She Said – CCA, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Son, Bones and All

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Pinocchio – GG, CCA

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – GG, CCA

Turning Red – GG, CCA

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – GG, CCA

Apollo 10 1/2

Could Jump In: Wendell & Wild – CCA, My Father’s Dragon, Strange World, Inu-Oh – GG, Apollo 10 ½, Lightyear

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Babylon – CCA

The Fabelmans – CCA

Elvis – CCA

Black Panther 2 – CCA

Avatar 2 – CCA

Could Jump In: Glass Onion, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Top Gun: Maverick – CCA

Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA

The Fabelmans – CCA

Babylon – CCA

Empire of Light – CCA

Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tar – CCA

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Elvis – CCA

Babylon – CCA

Black Panther 2 – CCA

The Woman King – CCA

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Could Jump In: Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion – CCA, Living

BEST FILM EDITING

Top Gun: Maverick – CCA

Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA

Elvis – CCA

Babylon – CCA

The Fabelmans

Could Jump In: Avatar 2 – CCA, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar – CCA

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

The Whale – CCA

Elvis – CCA

Babylon – CCA

The Batman – CCA

All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Jump In: Black Panther 2 – CCA, Blonde, Crimes of the Future

BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick

Avatar 2

Elvis

All Quiet on the Western Front

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Jump In: Babylon, The Batman, Black Panther 2

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar 2 – CCA

Top Gun: Maverick – CCA

Black Panther 2 – CCA

The Batman – CCA

Nope

Could Jump In: Doctor Strange 2, All Quiet on the Western Front, Jurassic World: Dominion

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Fabelmans – GG, CCA

Babylon – GG, CCA

Women Talking – GG, CCA

Pinocchio – GG, CCA

The Banshees of Inisherin – GG

Could Jump In: The Woman King, Black Panther 2, All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

RRR – CCA, GG

Pinocchio – CCA, GG

Black Panther 2 – CCA, GG

Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, GG

Where the Crawdads Sing – CCA, GG

Could Jump In: Till, Tell it Like a Woman, White Noise – CCA (My favorite by far!)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Decision to Leave – CCA, GG

All Quiet on the Western Front – GG

Close – CCA, GG

Argentina, 1985 – CCA, GG

Saint Omer

Could Jump In: Bardo – CCA, EO, Return to Seoul, Holy Spider, Corsage

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

All That Breathes

Navalny

Descendant

Could Jump In: The Territory, Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe, The Janes

January 1, 2023
2023 Oscars: Late June Predictions

Since my last predictions there have been a couple of major developments. Firstly, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things featuring Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, and Willem Dafoe (among others) was moved by Searchlight to 2023. Other than being a vehicle for Stone and a possible Picture contender, Lanthimos’ film will undoubtedly be a major tech player when it releases in 2023. There have also been a couple of new releases since late May, most notably, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick. Elvis currently has a 64 Metascore and a 7.8 on IMDb signaling to me that it is a music biopic that does have a chance to get a Picture nod yet needs a few of the contenders to be knocked off for Baz Luhrmann’s film to be considered locked. Other than being a major player for its young star Austin Butler, Elvis, like most Luhrmann films, should perform well with the techs (specifically in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). Top Gun: Maverick quickly became the biggest movie of the year and with its 78 Metascore and 8.6 rating on IMDb, one of the year’s most beloved as well. Now, some people think the film will get a Best Picture nod. But I don’t think so and believe its peak is a Star Wars: The Force Awakens trajectory: a massive blockbuster that missed Picture and all above-the-line categories but took an Editing nod. Joseph Kosinski’s film is definitely the kind of film that can win sound and editing if Elvis, Babylon, or Everything Everywhere All at Once can’t get those inevitably paired awards for themselves.

Other than these developments, nothing much has changed as Killers of the Flower Moon, The Fabelmans, Babylon, and Everything Everywhere All At Once are the remaining films most locked for a Picture nod. The latter film has stayed strong since its April release and its popularity shows no signs of stopping. This is the kind of momentum that I think can last the whole season and can likely help the film nab one above-the-line category win (like when the February released Get Out won Original Screenplay) or maybe propel the film to undeniable future Picture winner status.

Anyways, here are the predictions:

BEST PICTURE

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)

The Fabelmans (Universal)

Women Talking (MGM)

Babylon (Paramount)

Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

Empire of Light (Searchlight)

She Said (Universal)

White Noise (Netflix)

The Son (Sony Classics)

Bardo (Netflix)

Could Jump In: Elvis, Shirley, Next Goal Wins, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar 2, The Whale, Thirteen Lives, Rustin, Maestro, Decision to Leave, Tar, The Banshees of Inisherin, Amsterdam, Asteroid City, Till, Close, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

BEST DIRECTOR

Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Sarah Polley – Women Talking

Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Damien Chazelle – Babylon

Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

BEST ACTOR

Hugh Jackman – The Son

Colman Domingo – Rustin

Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

Austin Butler – Elvis

Michael Fassbender – The Killer

Could Jump In: Adam Driver – White Noise, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST ACTRESS

Margot Robbie – Babylon

Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Regina King – Shirley

Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Carey Mulligan – She Said, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Helen Mirren – Golda, Danielle Deadwyler – Till, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

Brad Pitt – Babylon

Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Jump In: Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

Laura Dern – The Son

Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

Jean Smart – Babylon

Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Hong Chau – The Whale, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

Empire of Light

Babylon

Bardo

Could Jump In: Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Women Talking

White Noise

She Said

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Son

Could Jump In: The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Pinocchio

Turning Red

Wendell and Wild

Lightyear

Apollo 10 ½

Could Jump In: The Bad Guys

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Babylon

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Fabelmans

Amsterdam

Elvis

Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City, Empire of Light

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Fabelmans

Babylon

Empire of Light

Elvis

Could Jump In: Maestro, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City, Bardo

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon

Amsterdam

Don’t Worry, Darling

Elvis

Killers of the Flower Moon

Could Jump In: Persuasion, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

BEST FILM EDITING

Babylon

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Fabelmans

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Elvis

Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Maestro

The Whale

The Batman

Elvis

Blonde

Could Jump In: The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon

BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick

Avatar II

The Batman

Elvis

Babylon

Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar II

Top Gun: Maverick

Thor: Love and Thunder

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Jurassic World: Dominion

Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Fabelmans

The Batman

Babylon

She Said

Asteroid City

Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Bardo

Decision to Leave

Close

Broker

Triangle of Sadness

Could Jump In: Holy Spider, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita

July 1, 2022