Awards Insights

Category: Oscar

  • Late December Oscar Predictions

    Late December Oscar Predictions

    The critics’ awards have just started up and while they likely will not influence the Oscars as much as they have done in the past (because this year’s ceremony is in April and that is pretty far off from the critics’ awards which happen mostly in January), they still provide an indication of what films the critics will be pushing this Oscar season. This year, Nomadland (which was expected) and First Cow (less expected, but still expected) have performed very well at these early critics’ awards. Da 5 Bloods has also benefited greatly from these awards and I feel more confident about having the Spike Lee feature in my Best Picture lineup. Mank, however, has not gotten the success expected for it in these awards and while it definitely will get a Best Picture nominations its chances of winning are sliding slowly.

    Since most of these critics’ awards are only considering movies that came out in the 2020 calendar year, films that will likely release in 2021 like Judas and the Black Messiah are not eligible. However, I think that if ‘Judas’ is as good as I hope it will be and receives at least an 86 Metascore once it releases it has a great shot at winning Best Picture. That’s because, as it is right now, there are no films that feel like true frontrunners. No film so far has hit the timely and conventionally entertaining combination a film needs to have to win Best Picture. I think ‘Judas’ could have that combination but I’m going to stay cautious on it until it releases.

    But, if nothing changes it will be between Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as they both have critics’ support (Nomadland much more than ‘Trial’, but still), timeliness or relevance, and accessibility to wide audiences.

    I am going to be talking a lot about the critics’ awards that are happening all around the country throughout the post, however I think it is important to mention that they have a diminished influence on the final outcome due to the Oscars being moved later in the year. So they are less relevant and while they still will likely provide an indication of where the Oscars will go I think it is important to exercise caution when using them to create your predictions. Also, only four significant critics’ bodies have released their winners at the time of this post so there are more than a dozen more to go and therefore the people who have won so far may not be a great indication of who the critics’ bodies are going to align towards when all is said and done.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    Minari

    One Night in Miami

    The Father

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Soul, Promising Young Woman, First Cow, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, Pieces of a Woman, The Mauritanian, Tenet, Sound of Metal, The Prom, Another Round

     

    Chloe Zhao seems like the clear frontrunner at this point. However, even though Mank has not received as much love as most thought it would, Fincher still has that overdue narrative going as he has never won an Oscar in his storied and prolific career. Still, Zhao has received the most acclaim this year by far so I think she has the best shot at winning this.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Florian Zeller – The Father, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Kelly Reichardt – First Cow, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Kornel Mondruzco – Pieces of a Woman

     

    Chadwick Boseman seems like a lock to win this category even though we are four months away from the ceremony. His performance is being lauded throughout the industry as spectacular and nobody else in this category is getting nearly the amount of recognition as he is so I don’t really see something happening here unless something changes drastically on the road to the Oscars.

    I also think Hopkins, Lindo, and Oldman are pretty much cemented for nominations as they all are getting notices from critics (especially Lindo, who has won Best Actor at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, and Hopkins who has won Best Actor at the Boston Film Critics Circle Awards). At this stage, the fifth spot is, in my mind, between Steven Yeun for Minari and Riz Ahmed for the Sound of Metal. Since Minari is a film that I think will get a Best Picture nomination I think Yeun will get in but do not count out Ahmed as he delivers a powerful turn in Sound of Metal.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, Colin Firth – Supernova

     

    Viola Davis is one of the best actors of her generation and that power is really expressed in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom where, according to the critics’ consensus, she gives one of her career-best performances. Frances McDormand also has been getting a lot of positive attention for her performance in Nomadland and while I don’t see her winning this I think that she should not be counted out.

    Of the four significant critics’ groups that have released their winners so far, Sidney Flanigan has won two of them. What this shows is that critics are trying to make sure that Academy voters do not forget Never Rarely Sometimes Always and its lead actress. Promising Young Woman’s wins in Best Actress and Best Screenplay at Los Angeles also continue that trend of critics reminding Academy voters of films that were talked about pre-COVID.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

     

    This race is by far the most wide-open of the acting races. I don’t feel as confident about any of these men getting a nomination as I do about the frontrunners in most other categories. I feel like this category is very subject to change, but I do think that if Judas and the Black Messiah ends up as good as I hope it will be and becomes a contender for a Best Picture win, Kaluuya might win this category for his portrayal of Fred Hampton.

    The four critics’ awards have gone to three different people here: Chadwick Boseman for Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci has won two for Sound of Metal, and Glynn Turman won one today for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Of these three, I think that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will be the bigger Best Picture player so I think that Turman will receive his first Oscar nomination for his performance this year. However, don’t be surprised if Boseman becomes a double nominee or if Raci breaks into the top five.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci – Sound of Metal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    Even though Mank is falling off a little bit, Amanda Seyfried is staying strong. Her performance has continued to be talked about and while she has not won a critics’ group award yet she was the runner-up at both Boston and Los Angeles which is good for a performer from a more mainstream film like Mank.

    Minari’s Yuh-Jung Youn and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’s Maria Bakalova have split the critics’ awards so far, but I am hesitant to add Bakalova to the top five due to the Academy’s long-standing bias over comedic acting. However, the quality of her performance became national news due to its victim so she might be in the top five by next month.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

    Could Jump In: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite, Swankie – Nomadland, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Ariana DeBose – The Prom

     

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 is an Aaron Sorkin film and as it is also a big Best Picture player I think it is virtually locked for a nomination. Mank also seems like a lock here and the screenplay being from David Fincher’s late father, Jack Fincher, can only help its chances.

    Promising Young Woman and Never Rarely Sometimes Always have both one screenplay award a piece but I think that Promising Young Woman is more likely to get a nomination due to its scathing social commentary.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Minari

    Soul

    Promising Young Woman

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Palm Springs, On the Rocks, The Forty Year-Old Version, Sound of Metal

     

    While Nomadland isn’t really a “talky” film there are many profound nuggets of wisdom found throughout the screenplay and that could push it through. The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami are all based on plays so they may be more appealing in this category as voters love the powerful monologues seen throughout theater-based films.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    The Father

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    One Night in Miami

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: First Cow, Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, The White Tiger, The Mauritanian, The Prom

     

    Even though Wolfwalkers has one most of the critics’ awards, Soul is very critically-acclaimed and is an original Pixar movie so it’s hard to see this going to Wolfwalkers.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Over the Moon

    Earwig and the Witch

    Onward

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Rumble

     

    This award often rewards nostalgia like it did last year when Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won here. Mank’s impeccable recreation of 1930’s Hollywood is going to appeal to that nostalgia and the film seems like an early lock in this race.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    News of the World

    Mulan

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, Emma, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Emma

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: News of the World, One Night in Miami, Ammonite, The Prom, The World to Come

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    The Prom

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Emma

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Sound of Metal

    Mank

    Soul

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, The Outpost, The Invisible Man, Wonder Woman 1984

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Midnight Sky

    Tenet

    Wonder Woman 1984

    Mulan

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Could Jump In: The Invisible Man, Birds of Prey, Greyhound, Mank, Greenland

     

    I feel like Soul might be the only locked nomination in this category as Soul has been getting love from the critics’ groups (it won at both Los Angeles and Boston Online) and it is rare that an animated film gets recognition in any category from these critics’ groups.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Mank

    The Midnight Sky

    News of the World

    Minari

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Let Them All Talk

     

    Diane Warren has received 11 Oscar nominations without a win and with a relatively weak slate in this category this may be her year to finally win the prize as she wrote a song for The Life Ahead.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    One Night in Miami

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Trolls: World Tour

    Could Jump In: The Prom, The Outpost, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The One and Only Ivan, Eurovision Song Contest

     

    Another Round did amazing at the European Film Awards and even though it is a slightly unconventional winner here it is from the respected Thomas Vinterberg who has directed the masterpieces Festen and The Hunt. And even though critics have not quite taken to it at the level they have for past winners, (its Metascore is a 79, and while that is pretty good it is a far cry from the past two winners in this category: last year’s Parasite at 96 and 2018’s Roma at 96 as well) I think it is the frontrunner as of now. Still, I think that it needs a little bit more for it to be in the Best Picture nomination conversation like past winners have been.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round

    Collective

    Night of the Kings

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    I’m No Longer Here

    Could Jump In: A Sun, The Auschwitz Report, My Little Sister, Charlatan, Notturno, Never Gonna Snow Again

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Totally Under Control

    John Lewis: Good Trouble

    Crip Camp

    Collective

    Dick Johnson is Dead

    Could Jump In: Boys State, Time, All In: The Fight for Democracy, MLK/FBI, Welcome to Chechnya

  • Early October Predictions

    Early October Predictions

    Since the last time I posted a set of predictions so much has happened. I have already talked about Nomadland winning the Golden Lion and the TIFF People’s Choice Award, and the enormous buzz surrounding One Night in Miami, but I have not talked about the great reviews The Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting or how West Side Story has moved from this year to winter 2021.

    These developments and more factor in greatly to the race and I will elaborate on them as I go on.

     

    While Nomadland has received the best reviews out of every contender so far (it has a 98 Metascore), I think One Night in Miami will win as it will likely be appealing to the older members of the Academy (it is a “talky” film that centers around major historical figures) and the younger members as it is timely and relevant to the current moment. If enough people love One Night in Miami it will definitely win as it seems like it will have a very broad appeal.

    The top 4 (even though Mank still has not been seen) essentially feel locked for Best Picture nominations.

    BEST PICTURE

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    Soul (Disney/Pixar)

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, United States vs. Billie Holliday, On the Rocks, Respect, Tenet, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Stillwater, Cherry

     

    Even though Fincher is overdue, Mank has to receive at least an 86 metascore for him to win Best Director. Essentially, his film has to garner universal acclaim and while that is likely, details about the film are still very uncertain as we have not even gotten a trailer yet.

    Watch out for Shaka King in this category (and Judas and the Black Messiah in general) as the film’s trailer was amazing and if executed well the film seems like it will have just the right mixture of timeliness and entertainment value to do well at the Oscars.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Paul Greengrass – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Denis Villeneuve – Dune, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Florian Zeller – The Father, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks

     

    This category has been pretty stable compared to others but this month I have Hopkins topping Lindo as The Father is having a great run on the festival circuit and I am starting to think that Da 5 Bloods may be slightly forgotten by the time ballots are filled since it was released in June and the Oscars are in April.

    BEST ACTOR

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Steven Yeun – Minari, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Holland – Cherry, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater

     

    Vanessa Kirby shot up these rankings as her performance in Pieces of a Woman received absolutely stellar notices at both the Venice and Toronto film festivals (she won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at Venice). However, I am not sure if her high placement will hold as Pieces of a Woman does not seem like it will be a major contender in any non-acting category.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Andra Day – United States vs Billie Holliday, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

     

    Even though critics have not seen it yet, Chadwick Boseman’s final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has generated a lot of positive talk and Boseman may receive his first Oscar nomination.

    I am still not sure if Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne is the lead in the Trial of the Chicago 7, but either way Cohen will probably get a nod for his work as Abbie Hoffman.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Steven Yeun – Minari, Charles Dance – Mank

     

    It feels like déjà vu doesn’t it? Glenn Close and Olivia Colman are again the frontrunners in a category after Olivia Colman pulled off a stunning upset over Close to win Best Actress in 2019. Unlike that year, Close’s film Hillbilly Elegy is a larger contender than The Wife ever was and, as a result, Close will be even more of a contender this year if her performance is of the same pedigree.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Audra McDonald – Respect

    Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman, Youn yuh-Jung – Minari, Swankie – Nomadland, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Soul

    Minari

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Da 5 Bloods, On the Rocks, Promising Young Woman, Ammonite, Respect, Palm Springs

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    One Night in Miami

    Nomadland

    The Father

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, The United States vs Billie Holliday, French Exit, First Cow, Next Goal Wins

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Over the Moon

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    The Croods: A New Age

    Could Jump In: Connected, The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, Lupin III: The First, Rumble

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    Mulan

    News of the World

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Ammonite, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Respect, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland

    Mank

    Dune

    News of the World

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, No Time to Die, Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Dune

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Coming 2 America, Death on the Nile, Emma, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Birds of Prey

    Dune

    Respect

    Mank

    The United States vs Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ammonite, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    Dune

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Sound of Metal

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, No Time to Die, Da 5 Bloods, Respect, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Greyhound

    Mulan

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Call of the Wild, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Mank, Over the Moon, Ammonite, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Over the Moon

    The One and Only Ivan

    One Night in Miami

    Giving Voice

    Could Jump In: Miss Americana, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Soul, Trolls: World Tour

  • September Oscar Predictions

    September Oscar Predictions

    The Oscar race will only heat up this month as major festivals in Venice and Toronto take place. As the Venice Film Festival is going on right now, I am looking out for the reception of certain films (One Night in Miami and Nomadland, for example) in order to see how they will fare come Oscars night.

     

    On Saturday, Netflix released the first images for Mank and they definitely did not hurt the film’s anticipation.

    Christopher Nolan’s Tenet was released to good, not great reviews, which hurt the film’s chances a bit.

    Since my last post, the trailer for Judas and the Black Messiah was released and it looked great as well as timely. The film will likely be Warner Bros’ first priority to push during Oscar season.

    Nomadland (this was announced in late July) was selected as the New York Film Festival’s Centerpiece, which is a position that Best Picture nominees Roma and Marriage Story have held. (2018 and 2019 respectively)

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank (Netflix)

    Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Ammonite (Neon)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix), The Father (Sony Classics), Soul (Disney/Pixar), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), On the Rocks (A24/Apple+), Tenet (Warner Bros.), Stillwater (Focus), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus), United States vs Billie Holliday (Paramount)

     

    The images for Mank are visually impressive and David Fincher looks like he is on track to have a great year.

    If Nomadland is a Top 6 Best Picture contender, Chloe Zhao will be nominated for Best Director

    I am still slightly hesitant of placing Sorkin so high in my director predictions as he is best-known for being a screenwriter, but ‘Chicago 7’ looks like it will be a top 3 Best Picture contender.

    Both Greengrass and Villeneuve will undoubtedly fill their respective films with impressive technical flourishes and those are the kind of details that Oscar voters love in this category.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

    Paul Greengrass – News of the World

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Regina King – One Night in Miami

     

    People have already seen both Lindo and Hopkins’ performances and both have been praised as some of the best of their respective careers.

    All three of the previous winners in this category all played famous historical or fictional people. And while Herman J. Mankiewicz (Oldman) and Fred Hampton (Kaluuya) do not have the same level of name-recognition that The Joker (Phoenix), Freddie Mercury (Malek), and Winston Churchill (Oldman again) have, they still have great chances to win. Oldman is always dependable and is the lead in the film with the most prestige. Kaluuya looked like he was firing on all cylinders in his film’s trailer and rises as a prime contender.

    BEST ACTOR

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Courier

     

    Viola Davis is always a contender and as she is playing a historical figure, Ma Rainey the “Mother of the Blues”, she has an even greater chance of receiving her second Oscar.

    It is very likely that Jennifer Hudson will receive a nomination for her portrayal of Aretha Franklin and, if so, she will likely knock out either Michelle Pfeiffer or Amy Adams. I am keeping Pfeiffer as she is a Hollywood veteran that has never received an Oscar nomination and I am keeping Adams for now as she has 5 nominations without a win and this year may be her chance to finally get some Oscar gold.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Audra Day – United States vs. Billie Holiday, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Olivia Colman – The Father

     

    First of all, R.I.P. Chadwick Boseman, who was not only an amazing actor, but also an inspiration to millions of people for his humility and kindness. His story is one of perseverance and it is truly uplifting. Rest in Power.

    The images released for Mank did not include Tom Burke at all and that might be just because they want to unveil his transformation into Orson Welles at a later date but it may also be because he does not have very large of a role.

    Someone from the Chicago 7 will get nominated and we are probably going to need a trailer (which will probably come out at the end of September at the latest) to see who has the lead and major supporting roles in this film.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Could Jump In: Jeremy Strong – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Charles Dance – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    I’ve said this before but if Glenn Close gives a great performance in Hillbilly Elegy she is essentially guaranteed this Oscar. She did not win in 2017 because nobody really saw The Wife but Hillbilly Elegy looks to be a Best Picture nomination contender, which already places Close’s chances higher than they were in 2017.

    Ronan also has a great chance but if, theoretically, both Ronan and Close end up giving equally great and recognized performances, Close will win based on the fact that she is much overdue for an Oscar.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Mary G. Blige – Respect, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Leslie Manville – Let Him Go, Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Ammonite

    Da 5 Bloods

    Soul

    Could Jump In: On the Rocks, Judas and the Black Messiah, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, C’mon C’mon, Tenet, Stillwater, Promising Young Woman

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Hillbilly Elegy

    I’m thinking of ending things

    Could Jump In: Dune, West Side Story, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Next Goal Wins, The Father, Those Who Wish Me Dead, French Exit

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Over the Moon

    Onward

    Aya and the Witch

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, The Croods 2, Wolfwalkers, Connected, Trolls: World Tour

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Tenet

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Ammonite

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Nomadland

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Trial of the Chicago 7, I’m thinking of ending things

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ammonite

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    West Side Story

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Eternals, Respect, Louis Wain, Emma

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Nomadland, Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night in Miami, West Side Story

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    Dune

    Respect

    West Side Story

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Eternals, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Louis Wain

     

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Eternals

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, No Time to Die, Greyhound, Da 5 Bloods, Black Widow

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Eternals

    Wonder Woman 1984

    The One and Only Woman

    Could Jump In: Black Widow, No Time to Die, Greyhound, Sonic the Hedgehog, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Mank

    Tenet

    Soul

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Over the Moon, The Secret Garden

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Soul

    The One and Only Ivan

    The Prom

    Over the Moon

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Miss Americana, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, All Together Now, The Outpost

  • Late July Oscar Predictions

    Late July Oscar Predictions

    It is late July and the Oscars are as uncertain as they have ever been. Tenet has been delayed indefinitely, theaters are in flux, and the coronavirus shows no signs of stopping.

    Anyhow, here are my predictions for late July:

    Mank is probably in the best place that a film this year can be in as it was already going to be released through a streaming service and therefore theater closures will not affect it. The film, on paper, looks like a quintessential “Oscar” film. It is set in the past (1941), it is a story about Hollywood (it is about the making of Citizen Kane, widely-known as the greatest film of all-time), and Mank is made by a director that is overdue for an Oscar win (David Fincher).

    I have Ammonite high up, even though I believe that it is very unlikely that it will win, as the film got notices at both the Cannes and Toronto Film Festivals. It will probably be a mid-level Best Picture nominee that has a shot to win in the acting categories.

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 has been moved to Netflix (as director Aaron Sorkin wanted it released before the election in November) and that gives it secure release date in these uncertain times. The cast of this film is stacked (Eddie Redmayne, Sacha Baron Cohen, Mark Rylance, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Yahya Abdul-Mateen. and Jeremy Strong are in it with many more well-known actors) and it has a contemporary relevance that could carry it to the top come Oscar night.

    Nomadland looks great and I could see it being a film that does well at the Film Independent Spirit awards and gets nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.

    West Side Story is a remake but it is also a Spielberg film and it should be great. As the film will likely comment on race relations in America it is also very relevant in the current moment.

    Da 5 Bloods is the only one of these films that has been seen and critics love it. The film is very timely and Spike Lee should stay in the Oscar’s good graces after his Adapted Screenplay win two years ago.

    Dune is one I am unsure about as it is an event film and will be released in theaters before it hits streaming. It has not been moved from its December 18th release date and it could very well be released in the winter but these are times where pure guesswork is all we can do and everything is uncertain. However, there is a high enough chance that theaters will reopen in some capacity by December so I remain hopeful about Dune

    Tenet was initially slated for a July 14th released date, then it was moved to July 28th, and then finally to August 12th. The newest reports state that it has been delayed indefinitely and whether or not that means it will be released this year is anyone’s guess. I don’t see this film being a winter release, but I think it will be a staggered release as theaters will reopen at different places around the world.

    Soul is set for a Thanksgiving week release and it should make that but nobody can be sure of that. The film looks a lot like Pixar’s 2015 film Inside Out (which I loved) and while that film did not get a Best Picture nomination the Corona-reduced 2020 slate should work to its advantage.

    This last slot is a hard one to fill for me. News of the World looks like it will be a great Tom Hanks vehicle, but it is still a Western and while anti-Western bias at the Oscars is not as bad as it was in the 50s and 60s, Westerns are not widely considered Oscar worthy in most cases. I would have had Hillbilly Elegy here if The Trial of the Chicago 7 had not moved to Netflix as I believe that the Academy selecting 4 Netflix films is unlikely. However, I still think it has a pretty good chance to receive a nomination and it should also do well in the acting categories. A lot of people are predicting Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch to get a Best Picture nomination but the fact that it is an anthology film is a little concerning as anthologies hardly ever get Best Picture nominations. Stillwater is directed by Tom McCarthy (whose film Spotlight won Best Picture in 2016), but is a genre film (it’s a thriller) and there are usually only 2 of those nominated each year and Dune and Tenet already fit that category..

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank

    Ammonite

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    West Side Story

    Da 5 Bloods

    Dune

    Tenet

    Soul

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, The French Dispatch, Stillwater, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Annette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Minari, The White Tiger, The Father

    David Fincher (Fight Club, The Social Network) has never won an Oscar and this year seems like the year the Academy will remedy their mistake as Fincher’s film Mank seems like a film that the Academy will go crazy over.

    Nomadland looks amazing and it should give Chloe Zhao her first Oscar nomination for Best Director but the film is also an indie and they are not usually nominated for Best Director unless the film itself is a major Best Picture contender.

    If Dune is released this year, I don’t see how Villeneuve will not get nominated for his sci-fi epic. It is the kind of film that gets nominated in this category and it should continue that trend this year as well.

    Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods was released in June and that might hinder its chance come April but for now I have Lee getting a nomination.

    If West Side Story is nominated for Best Picture Spielberg will be nominated for Best Director as he is Steven Spielberg. Sorkin has a pretty good chance to get a nomination as well but his films are usually seen as “talky” and they often films perceived that way often do not get Bets Director nominations.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater

    Delroy Lindo is getting spectacular notices for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods and even though most presumed frontrunners do not stay so throughout the whole Oscar season, I am going to keep Lindo at #1. Gary Oldman seems almost locked for a nomination at this point even though I do not believe he will win as an overdue performer like Lindo or Murray will likely take the crown.

    Tom Hanks has had such a crazy year but being in the news as often as he has could give him a narrative to help in his Oscar chances. His work in Paul Greengrass’ News of the World will likely be stellar and a nomination here will redeem the Academy for snubbing Hanks for his amazing performance in Greengrass’ Captain Phillips.

    Bill Murray’s only Oscar nomination was in Sofia Coppola’s Lost in Translation and reteaming with Coppola could very well give him his second nomination and maybe his first win.

    Anthony Hopkins got some of the best reviews he has received this century for his work in The Father and even though films that premiere at Sundance do not usually last throughout Oscar season, he could get nominated if the movie gets some traction.

    Joaquin Phoenix is definitely a contender here and C’mon has already had success in directing actors to Oscar gold as he directed Christopher Plummer in his Oscar-winning turn in Beginners.

    BEST ACTOR

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Could be Supporting)

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could be Supporting), Matt Damon – Stillwater, Adam Driver – Annette, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Denzel Washington – Macbeth, Trevante Rhodes – United States vs Billie Holiday

    Nomadland looks amazing and Frances McDormand’s portrayal of a woman who loses everything in the Great Recession should give the two-time Oscar winner her sixth Oscar nomination.

    As I mentioned before, Ammonite’s mentions at both the Cannes and Toronto film festivals are very beneficial and the film’s two stars (Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan) should both get a nomination…and maybe a win?

    Michelle Pfeiffer’s role in French Exit seems like one that is all-or-none; if she gets nominated she will have a really good chance to win, but it is likely that she may not be nominated.

    Amy Adams will likely get her seventh(!) Oscar nomination, which will hopefully (but probably won’t) result in her first Oscar win.

    To me, it is a really close contest between Jennifer Hudson and Viola Davis for that last slot but as Jennifer Hudson is playing the (much) more well-known singer (Aretha Franklin), I put her in the slot. Both of them could easily get a nomination and both have a good chance to win if they do.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Could Jump In: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Julianne Moore – The Glorias, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead

    This is one of those categories where I feel that no one is really in a frontrunner position and my rankings are kind of based solely on who is more likely to get a nomination. At this point in the season, I cannot really say that I think any of these nominees have a good chance to win, but David Strathairn is the man who has the highest chance of getting a nomination as he is a once-nominated veteran that has never won an Oscar before.

    Tom Burke has never been in the Oscar conversation ever before but he is playing Orson Welles, who is one of the most mythologized figures in film history so if he delivers (and if the role is not just a cameo) he will definitely get a nomination.

    Sacha Baron Cohen is playing the most famous of the Chicago 7 (Abbie Hoffman) and due to that I am putting him here, but whoever is the standout in that film will be nominated here.

    I’m unsure about Jesse Plemons, but Charlie Kaufman’s scripts are usually good for actors (His Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind all got nominations and Adaptation got a win for Chris Cooper).

    Chadwick Boseman will probably not get nominated for Da 5 Bloods, but instead he could be in contention for his first nomination in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If Boseman does get this nomination, I think Viola Davis will as well in Best Actress. The Untitled Fred Hampton Project is a question mark for me as it has a good cast (Daniel Kaluuya, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Lakeith Stanfield, and Ashton Sanders are just a few) and is about a timely subject (Fred Hampton was a prominent member of the Black Panthers). However, I am not sure it will be released this year and, because its director and writers have comedy backgrounds, I am not sure how good the film will be.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could Be Lead)

    Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Could be Lead), Lakeith Stanfield – Untitled Fred Hampton Project, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Tracy Letts – French Exit, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch.

    Glenn Close and Saoirse Ronan have 7 and 4 Oscar nominations respectively and one of these two overdue actresses should win this year.

    However, Ammonite will likely be a bigger Best Picture player than Hillbilly Elegy and because of that I am putting Ronan at #1.

    I’m still not comfortable with putting newcomer Ariana Debose so high in my predictions as this is her first role in a major film, but as she is playing the role Rita Moreno won her Oscar for in 1961 so I will keep her in the top 5 for now.

    I feel like that there will be an actress from Mank in the top five come nomination day and Amanda Seyfried seems like the performer in the best position to get a nomination.

    I will keep Rashida Jones here for now, but Abigail Breslin could also come in this 5th spot. If there is momentum for The Father Olivia Colman could be getting a nomination as well.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Glenn Close – Hilbilly Elegy

    Ariana Debose – West Side Story

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

    Could Jump In: Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Olivia Colman – The Father (Could be Lead), Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Debra Winger – Kajillionaire, Tilda Swinton – The French Dispatch

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Mank

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Ammonite

    The French Dispatch

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Soul, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Stillwater, Tenet, Annette, The King of Staten Island

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Dune

    I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Next Goal Wins, Those Who Wish Me Dead, Greyhound, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Respect, The Prom

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Aya and the Witch

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: The Croods 2, Wolfwalkers, Connected

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Tenet

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, News of the World, Mulan

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Dune

    Da 5 Bloods

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Ammonite, Nomadland

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune

    Ammonite

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Respect

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mulan

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Tenet

    Dune

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, The French Dispatch, The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Respect

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Eternals, The Witches, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Greyhound

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Eternals, No Time to Die, Respect, Soul, Da 5 Bloods

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Eternals

    Black Widow

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: No Time to Die, Wonder Woman 1984, Greyhound

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Soul

    Tenet

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Annette, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Witches

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Soul

    Annette

    Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    The Prom

    Could Jump In: Over the Moon, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Mulan

     

     

  • Expanded Oscar Predictions for Early March

    Expanded Oscar Predictions for Early March

    You won’t see any major changes between this post and the last one except that I have added 11 more categories.

    Here it is. Enjoy!

    BEST PICTURE

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    West Side Story

    Mank

    Hillbilly Elegy

    The French Dispatch

    News of the World

    Dune

    Nomadland

    Da 5 Bloods

    Nightmare Alley (Amsterdam, if it is released this year)

    Could Jump In: Amsterdam, Tenet, Ammonite, The Last Duel, On the Rocks, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, In the Heights, Macbeth, Respect, Blonde, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, King Richard, Prisoner 760, Harry Haft, Greyhound, Next Goal Wins, Soul, Stillwater

    Longer Shots: The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Father, The Many Saints of Newark, Rebecca, Annette, Mob Girl, Fonzo, Good Morning, Midnight, United States vs Billie Holiday, Flag Day, Untitled Darren Aronofsky Film, Minari, After Exile, Mulan

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Others: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Chloe Zhao – Nomadland, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, David O. Russell – Amsterdam, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley, Charlie Kaufman – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Niki Caro – Mulan, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Joel Coen – Macbeth, Francis Lee – Ammonite

    BEST ACTOR

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Adam Driver – The Last Duel

    Could Jump In: Tom Hanks – News of the World, Denzel Washington – Macbeth, Eddie Redmayne – Trial of the Chicago 7, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Bill Murray (Likely is supporting), Christian Bale – Amsterdam, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Daniel Kaluuya – Jesus Was My Homeboy, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Anthony Ramos – In The Heights

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Could Jump In: Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Margot Robbie – Amsterdam, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Frances McDormand – Macbeth, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley

    Mark Rylance – Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Tom Burke or Charles Dance – Mank

    Could Jump In: Sacha Baron Cohen – Trial of the Chicago 7, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tom Burke – Mank, Oscar Isaac – Dune, Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Giancarlo Esposito – Da 5 Bloods, Michael B. Jordan – Amsterdam, Frank Langella – Trial of the Chicago 7, Peter Sarsgaard – Harry Haft, Matt Damon – The Last Duel, Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Could Jump In: Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Annette Bening – Death on the Nile, Octavia Spencer – The Witches, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Gaby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Rebecca Ferguson – Dune, Vicky Krieps – Harry Haft

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    On The Rocks

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Soul, Last Night in Soho, C’mon C’mon, Da 5 Bloods, Amsterdam, Next Goal Wins, Stillwater

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    West Side Story

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Nomadland

    Macbeth (if Macbeth does not release this year, I’m Thinking of Ending Things will take this spot)

    Could Jump In: I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel, Those Who Wish Me Dead, In The Heights, Greyhound

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    West Side Story

    Dune

    Mank

    Tenet

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, No Time to Die, Da 5 Bloods, Macbeth, C’mon C’mon, The Prom

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Tenet

    Mank

    West Side Story

    Trial of the Chicago 7

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Nightmare Alley, News of the World, The Last Duel, Nomadland, Amsterdam, Hillbilly Elegy

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    West Side Story

    Dune

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    The Last Duel

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Tenet, Trial of the Chicago 7, News of the World, Ammonite, Mulan, In the Heights

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    Ammonite

    The French Dispatch

    Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: News of the World, West Side Story, The Last Duel, Mulan, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Hillbilly Elegy, Blonde, Death on the Nile

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Ammonite

    Soul

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Nightmare Alley, Da 5 Bloods, Annette, Hillbilly Elegy, Nomadland, The Last Duel

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    In the Heights

    No Time To Die

    West Side Story

    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    Annette

    Could Jump In: Soul, The Prom, Respect, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Witches

    Mank

    Dune

    Mulan

    Blonde

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Trial of the Chicago 7, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, News of the World

    BEST SOUND MIXING

    West Side Story

    Dune

    In the Heights

    Tenet

    Greyhound

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, No Time to Die, Last Night in Soho, The Last Duel, A Quiet Place 2, Respect, After Yang

    BEST SOUND EDITING

    Tenet

    Dune

    Greyhound

    No Time to Die

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, In The Heights, News of the World, The Eternals, BIOS, Last Night in Soho, Top Gun: Maverick, After Yang

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    Tenet

    Godzilla vs Kong

    BIOS

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, A Quiet Place Part 2, The Witches, Free Guy, Top Gun: Maverick, Greyhound

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    How Do You Live?

    Raya and the Last Dragon

    Over the Moon

    Connected

    Could Jump In: Onward, Croods 2, Tom and Jerry, The One and Only Ivan, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Scoob!, The Willoughbys

  • Much-Too-Early 2021 Oscar Predictions!

    Much-Too-Early 2021 Oscar Predictions!

    With the end of one Oscar season, comes the beginning of the next and even though Oscar season will start in 6 months, why not try predicting a few of the contenders so we know what to look forward to.

    Here are my 2021 Oscar predictions.

    (Films are ordered in terms of their chance to win named award)

    BEST PICTURE

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    West Side Story

    Mank

    Hillbilly Elegy

    The French Dispatch

    News of the World

    Dune

    Nomadland

    Da 5 Bloods

    Nightmare Alley (Amsterdam, if it is released this year)

    Could Jump In:

    Amsterdam, Tenet, Ammonite, The Last Duel, On the Rocks, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, In the Heights, Macbeth, Respect, Blonde, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, King Richard, Prisoner 760, Harry Haft, Greyhound, Next Goal Wins, Soul, Stillwater

    Longer Shots:

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Father, The Many Saints of Newark, Rebecca, Annette, Mob Girl, Fonzo, Good Morning, Midnight, United States vs Billie Holiday, Flag Day, Untitled Darren Aronofsky Film, Minari, After Exile, Mulan

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In:

    Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Chloe Zhao – Nomadland, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, David O. Russell – Amsterdam, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley, Charlie Kaufman – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Niki Caro – Mulan, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Joel Coen – Macbeth, Francis Lee – Ammonite

    BEST ACTOR

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Adam Driver – The Last Duel

    Could Jump In:

    Tom Hanks – News of the World, Denzel Washington – Macbeth, Eddie Redmayne – Trial of the Chicago 7, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Bill Murray (Likely is supporting), Christian Bale – Amsterdam, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Daniel Kaluuya – Jesus Was My Homeboy, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Anthony Ramos – In The Heights

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Could Jump In:

    Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Margot Robbie – Amsterdam, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Frances McDormand – Macbeth, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley

    Mark Rylance – Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In:

    Sacha Baron Cohen – Trial of the Chicago 7, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tom Burke – Mank, Oscar Isaac – Dune, Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Giancarlo Esposito – Da 5 Bloods, Michael B. Jordan – Amsterdam, Frank Langella – Trial of the Chicago 7, Peter Sarsgaard – Harry Haft, Matt Damon – The Last Duel

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Could Jump In:

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Annette Bening – Death on the Nile, Octavia Spencer – The Witches, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Gaby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Rebecca Ferguson – Dune, Vicky Krieps – Harry Haft

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    On The Rocks

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In:

    Tenet, Soul, Last Night in Soho, C’mon C’mon, Da 5 Bloods, Amsterdam, Next Goal Wins

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    West Side Story

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Nomadland

    Macbeth (if Macbeth does not release this year, I’m Thinking of Ending Things will take this spot)

    Could Jump In:

    I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel, Those Who Wish Me Dead, In The Heights, Greyhound

  • FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2020

    FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2020

    It’s finally here.

    Tomorrow, the Academy will reveal their winners in 24 different categories ending Oscar season 2020.

    Let’s get straight into the predictions!

    (The films are ordered in terms of award-winning probability)

    BEST PICTURE

    1917

    Parasite

    Jojo Rabbit

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joker

    The Irishman

    Little Women

    Marriage Story

    Ford v Ferrari

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Sam Mendes – 1917

    Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

    Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

    Todd Phillips – Joker

    BEST ACTOR

    Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

    Adam Driver – Marriage Story\

    Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

    BEST ACTRESS

    Renee Zellweger – Judy

    Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

    Charlize Theron – Bombshell

    Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

    Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joe Pesci – The Irishman

    Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

    Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

    Al Pacino – The Irishman

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Laura Dern – Marriage Story

    Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

    Florence Pugh – Little Women

    Margot Robbie – Jojo Rabbit

    Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Parasite

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Marriage Story

    1917

    Knives Out

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Jojo Rabbit

    Little Women

    The Irishman

    Joker

    The Two Popes

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    1917

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    The Irishman

    Joker

    The Lighthouse

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Little Women

    Jojo Rabbit

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    The Irishman

    Joker

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Ford v Ferrari

    Parasite

    Joker

    Jojo Rabbit

    The Irishman

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Bombshell

    Joker

    Judy

    1917

    Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    1917

    Parasite

    Jojo Rabbit

    The Irishman

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Joker

    1917

    Little Women

    Marriage Story

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    Rocketman

    Harriet

    Frozen 2

    Breakthrough

    Toy Story 4

    BEST SOUND EDITING

    1917

    Ford v Ferrari

    Joker

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    BEST SOUND MIXING

    1917

    Ford v Ferrari

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joker

    Ad Astra

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    1917

    The Lion King

    Avenegers: Endgame

    The Irishman

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Klaus

    Toy Story 4

    Missing Link

    I Lost My Body

    How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    American Factory

    For Sama

    Honeyland

    The Cave

    The Edge of Democracy

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Parasite

    Pain and Glory

    Les Miserables

    Corpus Christi

    Honeyland

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    Hair Love

    Kitbull

    Memorable

    Sister

    Dcera (Daughter)

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

    St. Louis Superman

    Walk Run Cha-Cha

    In the Absence

    Life Overtakes Me

    BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

    The Neighbor’s Window

    Brotherhood

    Nefta Football Club

    Saria

    A Sister

     

     

  • Pre-DGA Oscar Predictions

    Pre-DGA Oscar Predictions

    The Directors Guild of America, American Society of Cinematographers, Cinema Audio Society, USC Scripter, and Annie awards will all be announced this weekend.

    Now, these are very influential precursors in their respective categories, and could turn the tide (especially DGA) of the race.

    Out of these precursors, the Directors Guild of America shares the most membership with the academy and if something like Parasite wins here, that film will pick up a little bit more steam on its road to Best Picture. Still, I predict Sam Mendes for 1917 winning here as his film seems like more of a “directing” film.

    Here are my predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    1917

    Parasite

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    The Irishman

    Joker

    Jojo Rabbit

    Marriage Story

    Little Women

    Ford v Ferrari

    Three films, 1917, Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, all have good chances of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. 1917 has PGA and Golden Globe, Parasite has SAG (not eligible for the Drama and Comedy Golden Globe categories as it is a foreign film), and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has CCA and Golden Globe. PGA is the most predictive of these precursors, which is why 1917 is the frontrunner. BAFTA should tell us who is not going to win Best Picture (Seriously, they’ve been 0 for 5 the last 5 years, even though they were 6 for 6 the years before that), while DGA and WGA should give us an indication of where the Academy could be leaning.

    DIRECTOR

    Sam Mendes – 1917

    Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

    Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

    Todd Phillips – Joker

    This award really comes down to DGA, if Bong Joon-Ho wins there he still has a chance to win Best Director at the Oscars (like Alejandro G. Inarittu for Birdman), but if he does not Sam Mendes will win. Mendes has the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice award (he tied with Bong Joon-Ho at CCA), so he is the frontrunner.

    ACTOR

    Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

    Adam Driver – Marriage Story

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

    Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

    These acting categories are essentially set in stone as all four have won awards at the Golden Globes, CCA, and SAG. However, if BAFTA does something crazy their might be chance for movement.

    ACTRESS

    Renee Zellweger – Judy

    Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

    Charlize Theron – Bombshell

    Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

    Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

    Renee Zellweger is locked here, and I can not see her losing BAFTA

    SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joe Pesci – The Irishman

    Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

    Al Pacino – The Irishman

    Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

    Brad Pitt is going to sweep everything and win his first acting Oscar (he won for producing 12 Years a Slave).

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Laura Dern – Marriage Story

    Margot Robbie – Bombshell

    Florence Pugh – Little Women

    Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

    Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell

    This will probably be Marriage Story’s only Oscar, and Laura Dern will win her first Oscar.

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Parasite

    Marriage Story

    1917

    Knives Out

    I think that Parasite is going to win WGA and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood BAFTA. And if this happens, Parasite winning Best Original Screenplay will probably mean it will win Best Picture as well.

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Little Women

    The Irishman

    Jojo Rabbit

    Joker

    The Two Popes

    This film usually has gone to films that will not win any other awards in other categories. The problem is that Little Women (maybe Costume Design), Jojo Rabbit, and The Irishman all look like that at this point. But since Little Women did win at CCA and has had a groundswell of support at the perfect time, it should win.

    ANIMATED FEATURE

    Toy Story 4

    Missing Link

    Klaus

    I Lost My Body

    How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

    Toy Story 4 should win this even though Missing Link did surprise at the Golden Globes. Toy Story 4 did win PGA and CCA, which are better indicators. I think Klaus has more support than I Lost My Body and I believe it has a chance to be the dark horse in this race.

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    1917

    Parasite

    The Irishman

    Jojo Rabbit

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won the CCA for this category and Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh’s recreation of 1969 Los Angeles should be too much to turn down for Oscar voters.

    CINEMATOGRAPHY

    1917

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    The Irishman

    Joker

    The Lighthouse

    I can not see how anybody else other than 1917’s Roger Deakins can win this. Maybe Onc… no Deakins is getting his Oscar.

    COSTUME DESIGN

    Little Women

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Jojo Rabbit

    The Irishman

    Joker

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Little Women could both win this. Production and costume design usually go hand and hand at the Oscars (3 of the last 5 Oscars had the same winner in these categories), but this seems like 2017 when La La Land won Production Design and Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them won Costume Design. “Hollywood” has flashier costumes than La La Land did, but Little Women has the turn of the century period costumes that this branch loves.

    FILM EDITING

    Ford v Ferrari

    Parasite

    Joker

    Jojo Rabbit

    The Irishman

    This branch loves quick cuts and films that you know will be high-adrenaline coming in to the theater. I believe that Ford v Ferrari will win BAFTA and then take this at the Oscars. But if Parasite or Joker wins BAFTA, the film that wins will probably win.

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Bombshell

    Joker

    Judy

    1917

    Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

    Bombshell should win this as it uses makeup well on multiple characters and not just one like Judy and Joker.

    SOUND MIXING

    1917

    Ford v Ferrari

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joker

    Ad Astra

    1917 or Ford v Ferrari have very high chances of winning the sound categories, which is why I think they will split them. I’m looking at 2017 when Hacksaw Ridge won Sound Mixing, but Arrival won Sound Editing. This year’s war film, 1917, should follow the same pattern and win Sound Mixing while Ford v Ferrari will win Sound Editing.

    SOUND EDITING

    Ford v Ferrari

    1917

    Joker

    Star Wars: The Rise of the Skywalker

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Lion King

    Avengers: Endgame

    The Irishman

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    1917

    The Lion King could follow The Jungle Book and win with its portrayal of photorealistic animals in a photorealistic environment. Avengers: Endgame or The Irishman could also win this.

    ORIGINAL SCORE

    Joker

    1917

    Little Women

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Marriage Story

    Hildur Guonadottir should win her first Oscar on her first nomination for her haunting work on Joker as she has won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards. Still, this is Thomas Newman’s fifteenth Oscar nomination, and he has not ever won. Is soaring score for 1917 could give him the win.

    ORIGINAL SONG

    Rocketman

    Harriet

    Frozen 2

    Breakthrough

    Toy Story 4

    Rocketman has won the Golden Globe and CCA awards in this category and is showing no signs of stopping.

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    American Factory

    Honeyland

    For Sama

    The Cave

    The Edge of Democracy

    While American Factory is the frontrunner, Honeyland and For Sama pose very realistic threats. I think For Sama actually has a better chance than what most are thinking, but its lack of DGA and CCA nominations is slightly troubling.

    ANIMATED SHORT

    Hair Love

    Kitbull

    Sister

    Daughter (Dcera)

    Memorable

    I saw and Kitbull and Hair Love and even though Kitbull is a Pixar product, Kitbull was too simple for me. It was a great short film, but Hair Love had multiple layers and that created a more emotional reaction.

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

    In the Absence

    St. Louis Superman

    Walk Run Cha-Cha

    Life Overtakes Me

    LIVE-ACTION SHORT

    Brotherhood

    Nefta Football Club

    A Sister

    The Neighbor’s Window

    Saria

    You can watch the shorts here:

     

  • The Most Important Weekend In The Best Picture Race Is Here

    The Most Important Weekend In The Best Picture Race Is Here

    Today, The Producers Guild Awards announces its winners for Best Theatrical Motion Picture.

    PGA

    Because the Producers Guild of America shares many of its members with the Academy we see a lot of crossover in their Best Picture winners. They also adopted the preferential ballot system the same year the Academy did and have been using it ever since.

    Here are their last 10 winners:

    • – indicates Best Picture win

    2019 – Green Book*

    2018 – The Shape of Water*

    2017 – La La Land

    2016 – The Big Short

    2015 – Birdman*

    2014 – 12 Years a Slave* and Gravity (TIE)

    2013 – Argo*

    2012 – The Artist*

    2011 – The King’s Speech*

    2010 – The Hurt Locker*

    Onto this year’s nominees:

    If presumed frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wins this award it will win Best Picture at the Oscar. However, I smell a surprise brewing and I doubt that it will win the PGA. This is for two reasons, the film’s lack of an editing nomination at the Oscars and the Bruce Lee controversy during the fall. I think it might end up like Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and get very close, but not win Best Picture. That film also lost the PGA to The Shape of Water.

    So what will win, I think 1917 has the kind of broad support that could bring it to the top and its Golden Globe win and amazing box office came at the perfect time.

    Jojo Rabbit (which I loved) and Joker have a few too many people that hate them to get the broad support that this award and Best Picture need. In the years before the preferential ballot these films would probably have better chances at getting the top prize at either of these awards bodies.

    Parasite is a strange case. It has the broad support a film needs to win, but as an international film it has that “one-inch tall” barrier to break. Still, there is a lot that separates it from last year’s foreign-language Best Picture frontrunner. Roma. First and most importantly, Parasite is a lot more entertaining than Roma. While they both are expertly-crafted films with emotional impact, Parasite is more involving for the average movie lover. So essentially, if we see Parasite winning this, don’t be surprised.

    The Irishman has mostly fizzled and Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, and Knives Out all have very outside chances to win (but there is always a possibility for anything).

    SAG

    Also this weekend is the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which used to be more predictive of Best Picture but still is a good indicator of the preferences of the Academy’s largest branch, the actor’s branch.

    The Screen Actors Guild also shares many of its members with the academy, but has made some pretty outside choices since SAG became SAG-AFTRA in March 2012

    Here are their winners since 2013:

    • – indicates Best Picture winner

    2019 – Black Panther

    2018 – Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

    2017 – Hidden Figures

    2016 – Spotlight*

    2015 – Birdman*

    2014 – American Hustle

    2013 – Argo*

    You can see every SAG winner here

    I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite both have shots at winning the SAG ensemble. My prediction is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but unlike if it wins at PGA, a “Hollywood” win here won’t virtually guarantee a Best Picture win.

    What SAG is more important in predicting is the acting categories at the Oscars. My predictions for those categories at SAG are the same as my predictions for those categories at the Oscars: Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor, Renee Zellweger for Best Actress, Brad Pitt for Best Supporting Actor, and Laura Dern for Best Supporting Actress. If these four win their categories at SAG, they will are virtually locked for the Oscars.

  • FINAL Oscar Nominations 2020 Predictions

    FINAL Oscar Nominations 2020 Predictions

    The time has come. After months of speculation the Oscar nominations will be released on Monday.

    Here are my predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Parasite

    The Irishman

    1917

    Marriage Story

    Joker

    Jojo Rabbit

    Little Women

    Ford v Ferrari

    Could Jump In: The Two Popes, The Farewell, Knives Out, Bombshell

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, 1917, Marriage Story, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and Ford v Ferrari are the films that got both Critics’ Choice and Producers Guild nominations. In the past 4 years, only two films have not received a Best Picture nomination after getting those two notices, The Big Sick and Sicario. The Big Sick was mainly a comedy and the Academy does have a bias against that genre of film. Sicario was an action-thriller and would have probably been nominated if Mad Max: Fury Road, the superior action-thriller, had not been released in the same year.

    Little Women received enough support from BAFTA and a PGA nomination showing that it has enough support to get a nomination. Now, Ford v Ferrari is in the 9th spot and I believe it could get realistically switched out with The Two Popes. The Two Popes seems like a film that Oscar voters loved and that could push it into the field. However, Ford v Ferrari got both a Critics Choice nomination and a PGA nomination so its support seems widespread. Also, if The Two Popes were to receive a Best Picture nomination it would be the third Netflix film to do so this year. And streaming-bias is still very much alive among the Hollywood elite so this outcome is unlikely.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

    Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Sam Mendes -1917

    Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

    Greta Gerwig – Little Women

    Could Jump In: Todd Phillips – Joker, Taika Waititi, Noah Baumbach

    Bong Joon-Ho, Quentin Tarantino, Sam Mendes, and Martin Scorsese seem to be guaranteed a spot in this field because of their nominations at most major awards precursor, but there is a chance that one of them (I think Scorsese) might be snubbed.

    Little Women has received the support it has needed at the correct time and because of that, Gerwig could deservedly get her second Best Director nomination (Becoming the first woman ever to do that). The Academy has undoubtedly heard the public outcry over the lack of female directors and will hopefully respond by acknowledging this great film and its great director. Todd Phillips seems like the more obvious choice to take the 5th spot in this race, but his lack of a Directors Guild nomination coupled with the Academy likely viewing him as a comedy director (as they did with Peter Farrelly who did not get nominated in Best Director even though his film Green Book eventually won Best Picture) might keep on the sidelines for this race.

    BEST ACTOR

    Adam Driver – Marriage Story

    Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Taron Egerton – Rocketman

    Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

    Could Jump In: Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari, Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes, Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name

    Adam Driver, Joaquin Phoenix, and Leonardo DiCaprio have all received nominations from BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and the Screen Actors Guild, but while Driver and Phoenix seem very secure, DiCaprio’s lack of success at the Golden Globes makes him very snubbable.

    Taron Egerton had the perfect push at the perfect time with his Golden Globe award and BAFTA nomination and seems to be mostly secured in the race. Antonio Banderas, however, has not found the same success at the major awards as he has only a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nomination, but his beautiful performance should be able to carry its weight into this category. There is usually one actor who gets nominated for the SAG award and not the Oscar and that seems to be Christian Bale, who did not get the BAFTA nomination that would have secured his place in the race. The person who did get that BAFTA nom was Jonathan Pryce who could get be a spoiler come Monday.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Renee Zellweger – Judy

    Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

    Charlize Theron – Bombshell

    Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

    Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

    Could Jump In: Lupita Nyong’o – Us, Awkwafina – The Farewell

    Renee Zellweger, ScarJo, and Charlize Theron all received BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice award nominations. Erivo and Ronan each missed one of those (Erivo missed BAFTA and Ronan missed SAG) making them vulnerable for their spots to be taken by Nyong’o who has been racking up second-tier precursor awards left and right. But the fact that Nyong’o’s performance is in a horror movie that she will likely be the sole nomination of diminishes her chances.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joe Pesci – The Irishman

    Al Pacino – The Irishman

    Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

    Song Kang-Ho – Parasite

    Could Jump In: Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes, Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy

    Brad Pitt, Joe Pesci, Al Pacino, and Tom Hanks have all received the Big 4 Oscar precursors (BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice), but Tom Hanks has had similar scenarios play out with him failing getting an Oscar nomination (Case in point his performances in Saving Mr. Banks, Captain Phillips, which was an especially egregious omission, and Sully).

    Parasite is getting so much love from both film critics and movie buffs alike. Song Kang-Ho should be able to ride that wave of support on his way to a nomination, but if he doesn’t, look for Anthony Hopkins to earn a spot. Hopkins has nabbed three (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes) of the Big 4 precursors, while Song has 0.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Laura Dern – Marriage Story

    Margot Robbie – Bombshell

    Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

    Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

    Florence Pugh – Little Women

    Could Jump In: Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

    Laura Dern and Margot Robbie are the two actresses with the Big 4 precursors in this category and are secure for nominations. Jennifer Lopez didn’t get BAFTA but that was likely a major outlier, so she should be secure as well. Scarlett Johansson and Florence Pugh each received two of the Big 4 precursors, but Zhao Shuzhen could get in for the kind of performance that the Academy loves. If Johansson gets a nomination here and in Best Actress she would be the first actor to get a nomination in two categories since Cate Blanchett at the 2008 Oscars, which would be the Oscars way of saying sorry for not nominating her for anything, ever (even Lost in Translation!).

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Marriage Story

    Parasite

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Knives Out

    1917

    Could Jump In: Booksmart, The Farewell

    Marriage Story and Parasite have received all Big 4 writing precursors (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and Writers’ Guild of America (WGA)) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would have most likely hit the WGA if Quentin Tarantino was a member of the Writers’ Guild.

    Where it gets confusing is the last two spots, Knives Out, 1917, Booksmart, or The Farewell could take these two spots. Knives Out seems more likely than the others as it is an on-the-bubble Best Picture nomination contender where the script is an enormous part of the film’s appeal (I think Knives Out is great, by the way). Now for the last spot, I decided to choose the film with the best Best Picture chances which was 1917. While 1917 is a war film and that genre of film does not usually get screenplay nominations (see: Dunkirk and Hacksaw Ridge), it got a WGA nomination. Booksmart got both a WGA nomination and a BAFTA nomination so it would probably get an Oscar original screenplay nomination as well if it wasn’t for its lackluster box office performance and lack of presence whatsoever in the Best Picture race. People are pointing to Bridesmaids as a female-fronted comedy that got an original screenplay nomination at the Oscars, but that film had some exposure in the Best Picture conversation (It got both a SAG and PGA nomination), which Booksmart does not. The Farewell could get in as a spoiler, but just doesn’t seem to have enough people talking about it.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Irishman

    Jojo Rabbit

    Little Women

    The Two Popes

    Joker

    Could Jump In: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

    This is one of the most secure categories at the Oscars this year. However, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood still has a chance to shock.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Toy Story 4

    Missing Link

    Frozen 2

    I Lost My Body

    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

    Could Jump In: Klaus, Abominable

    This is pretty much locked, but Klaus or Abominable could replace I Lost My Body or How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    1917

    The Irishman

    Jojo Rabbit

    Joker

    Could Jump In: Parasite, Little Women

    I could see Jojo Rabbit or Joker dropping out to make way for Parasite. Even though Parasite is set in a contemporary time period, which could be detrimental in this category, a whole village was created for the film.

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    1917

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    The Irishman

    Joker

    Ford v Ferrari

    Could Jump In: The Lighthouse, Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

    I really want to put The Lighthouse in the top 5, but all of the other films that have done amazing at the cinematography precursors are legitimate Best Picture nomination contenders. I also don’t think the Oscars believe that they have to give The Lighthouse a nomination here. The last two times Best Cinematography was a film’s only Oscar nomination were the films Prisoners and Silence. The former was because Prisoners was shot by the GOAT Roger Deakins and the latter was because Silence was directed by Martin Scorsese and Best Cinematography was the best place to give it a nomination.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Little Women

    Rocketman

    Dolemite is My Name

    Jojo Rabbit

    Could Jump In: The Irishman, Downtown Abbey

    This is a mostly fixed category with The Irishman’s Sandy Powell (3-time Oscar winner) poised for an upset.

    BEST EDITING

    Ford v Ferrari

    The Irishman

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joker

    Parasite

    Could Jump In: Jojo Rabbit, 1917

    If a movie wants to win Best Picture they have to have a nomination here (unless you are 1917 in which case you don’t have to because 1917 was made to look like it wasn’t edited). Jojo Rabbit could get a nomination instead of Parasite or Joker.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Bombshell

    Joker

    Rocketman

    Judy

    Dolemite is My Name

    Could Jump In: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Downtown Abbey, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    This is the first year that this category is five nominations (it has been three nominations most years) and with that change comes a different kind of uncertainty that we don’t have in any other category. We don’t have a full idea of what this branch likes and doesn’t like.

    BEST SOUND MIXING

    1917

    Ford v Ferrari

    Rocketman

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joker

    Could Jump In: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker could jump in pretty easily here and it would have if there weren’t so many movies in the Best Picture conversation in this category.

    BEST SOUND EDITING

    1917

    Ford v Ferrari

    Joker

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Could Jump In: Avengers: Endgame, Rocketman

    The real question in many of these technical categories is whether The Academy will lean more toward Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker or Avengers: Endgame.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Lion King

    Avengers: Endgame

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    The Irishman

    1917

    Could Jump In: Alita: Battle Angel, Gemini Man, Terminator: Dark Fate

    Like I said before they could knock out either Star Wars or Avengers. Alita has a good chance of taking 1917’s 5th spot.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    1917

    Joker

    Little Women

    Marriage Story

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Could Jump In: Jojo Rabbit

    This category also seems pretty much locked with Jojo Rabbit, Us, or Pain and Glory maybe making a move into the fray.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    Frozen 2

    Rocketman

    Harriet

    The Lion King

    Wild Rose

    Could Jump In: Toy Story 4, Breakthrough, Parasite

    The first four have all been nominated for a Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe award. Wild Rose seems like it can be that less-known that everybody is looking up on Monday.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    For Sama

    American Factory

    Apollo 11

    Honeyland

    One Child Nation

    Could Jump In: Maiden, The Biggest Little Farm

    I’ve seen that many other pundits have been saying that Apollo 11 could get snubbed like Won’t You Be My Neighbor (last year’s frontrunner) did last year. I’m not predicting that, but I can see it happening.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Parasite

    Pain and Glory

    Les Miserables

    Atlantics

    Those Who Remained

    Could Jump In: Beanpole, Corpus Christi

    Parasite is going to win this and the first three are going to get a nomination. There is usually one Holocaust-related film in the mix, this year Those Who Remained and Corpus Christi are those films. Those Who Remained is a more easily-digestible film (if there is such a Holocaust film) and therefore has a better chance of getting a nomination.

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    Hair Love

    Kitbull

    The Physics of Sorrow

    Hors Piste

    Mind My Mind

    Could Jump In: Daughter, Sister, Memorable

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Learning To Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re A Girl)

    Fire in Paradise

    St. Louis Superman

    Stay Close

    In the Absence

    Could Jump In: Walk Run Cha-Cha, After Maria, Life Overtakes Me, The Nightcrawlers

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    Brotherhood

    Little Hands

    Neighbors’ Window

    Refugee

    Nefta Football Club

    Could Jump In: A Sister, Miller and Son