Tag: oscars 2022

Licorice Pizza, Belfast, and Don’t Look Up are all essentially guaranteed nominations in this category. Being the Ricardos has hit all the major precursors and if the film gets into Picture, the film is also guaranteed a nod here. The Oscars seemingly don’t like Sorkin as much as everyone else does (the screenplay snub for Steve Jobs best exemplifies this), but I think that Being the Ricardos, as the competition in this category isn’t as strong as Steve Jobs’ competitors were, will hang on for a nomination. However, it’s also true that in the last 10 years, in both original and adapted screenplay, 2 of the 100 nominees (Joker (59) and Jojo Rabbit (58)) had Metascores that were not green. Both Don’t Look Up (49) and Being the Ricardos (60) have yellow Metascores and while Don’t Look Up is a top 6 Best Picture contender like Joker and Jojo Rabbit, Being the Ricardos is not. Thus, the Sorkin film is vulnerable for a miss and I think Wes Anderson and The French Dispatch have the best chance of taking his spot, however I am going to play it safe and keep Sorkin in.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

Belfast – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Don’t Look Up – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

King Richard – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch – WGA, Mass, Parallel Mothers

I am pretty confident about this five. The first three especially since all of them will be Best Picture nominees. The last musical to be nominated in adapted screenplay was Chicago in 2003, though it’s also true that since Chicago only two musicals, Les Miserables and La La Land, have been nominated for Best Picture and La La Land was nominated for Best Original Screenplay. Still, West Side Story’s star does seem to be falling somewhat after missing a BAFTA Best Film nomination. If Olivia Colman somehow misses Best Actress, I don’t see it receiving a nomination here but that’s not very likely. If Drive My Car gets in anywhere it’s here and the film has enough support to do that. (Note: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, and Drive My Car were all ineligible at WGA)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA

CODA – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

Dune – CCA, WGA, USC, BAFTA

The Lost Daughter – CCA, USC, BAFTA

Drive My Car – BAFTA

Could Jump In: West Side Story – CCA, WGA, tick, tick…BOOM! – WGA

To me, Dune, Belfast, and The Power of the Dog are basically locks here. They usually have at least one genre film here which Dune fits the mold of and the top 2 Best Picture contenders are usually here as well. In a close fourth place I have Don’t Look Up which has only received a nod from ACE but has the kind of editing that this branch likes (McKay’s last two films The Big Short and Vice were nominated here as well) and with this film having that genre element to it as well I’m pretty confident about its inclusion.

As always, the question is about what will fill the last slot. Licorice Pizza seems like the obvious choice here since its hit all the precursors yet I think it could end up like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood which is another auteur period comedy film that was often described as a “hangout” film. The laid-back nature of the film forces me to caution against predicting in this category that usually awards fast-paced and/or genre films.

If Licorice Pizza doesn’t get in there are three films in my eyes that can realistically take its place: West Side Story, No Time to Die, or King Richard. I’ll start with King Richard since part of me thinks this film has the best chance to fill this last spot since sports movies (Ford v Ferrari, I, Tonya, and Moneyball) usually do well in this category. However, the film’s star has been falling a little recently and if there was more focus on the tennis action I think it would be a more popular pick here.

West Side Story was edited by frequent Spielberg collaborator Michael Kahn (with Sarah Broshar as well) and if Kahn is nominated for West Side Story, he will receive his ninth editing nod and will become the most-nominated editor ever. West Side Story’s lack of an ACE nomination, however, is concerning and even though a film can be nominated without an ACE nod (last year’s The Father, for example), it’s definitely not very common.

No Time to Die received nominations from both BAFTA and ACE so it has definitely received support but both Skyfall and Casino Royale received those two nominations and ended up empty-handed when it came to Best Editing at the Oscars. I am going to go with King Richard for now but my mind may change as time goes on.

BEST FILM EDITING

Dune – CCA, ACE, BAFTA

Belfast – CCA, ACE, BAFTA

The Power of the Dog – CCA, ACE

Don’t Look Up – ACE

King Richard – ACE

Could Jump In: Licorice Pizza – CCA, ACE, BAFTA, West Side Story – CCA, No Time to Die – BAFTA, ACE

Dune, The Power of the Dog, and The Tragedy of Macbeth are seemingly locked here for me. Belfast follows close behind as it hit both CCA and ASC and is a black-and-white top 2 Best Picture contender. I am pretty confident about predicting those four films and that last slot for me is between West Side Story and Nightmare Alley.

Nightmare Alley has hit all the major precursors and has pretty flashy cinematography, yet West Side Story is undeniably the bigger Best Picture contender. Its cinematography is also flashy and Janusz Kaminski is definitely a legend in the industry. However, one thing that gives me pause is that a lot of the fantastic shots from West Side Story are homages to the original and I don’t know if that’ll work to the film’s benefit (oh they recreated some great shots!) or to its detriment (oh they just copied the original!).

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune – CCA, ASC, BAFTA

The Power of the Dog – CCA, ASC, BAFTA

The Tragedy of Macbeth – CCA, ASC, BAFTA

Belfast – CCA, ASC

West Side Story – CCA

Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley – CCA, ASC, BAFTA, Licorice Pizza

Three films, Dune, Nightmare Alley, and Cruella have hit all the major precursors. This branch seems to like only period or sci-fi/fantasy films. Those three previously-mentioned films fit that criteria so I think they’re safe.

Most people have House of Gucci in their predictions but the film spends most of its time in the 80s and 90s (though some of the film takes place in the 70s) and the Academy hasn’t been as keen on awarding films that are set during that time period. Still, it’s true that fashion is a major part of the film and that aspect could help it. It’s also true that The Devil Wears Prada, which was about the contemporary fashion industry, was also nominated in this category.

Cyrano is the kind of period piece that gets love in this category and Joe Wright’s films especially do very well here (four of his previous films, Pride and Prejudice, Atonement, Anna Karenina, and Darkest Hour were all nominated here and Anna Karenina actually won). West Side Story is very close though I think the other films may just be too strong for it.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Dune – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Nightmare Alley – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Cruella – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Cyrano – CDG, BAFTA

House of Gucci – CCA, CDG

Could Jump In: West Side Story – CCA, CDG, Coming 2 America – CDG, The French Dispatch – BAFTA

This year, this five seems to be one of the easiest to predict and though we could see some curveballs I am pretty confident about these films being the ones that will be mentioned on Tuesday morning.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Encanto – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

Flee – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA

Luca – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

The Mitchells vs. the Machines – CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

Raya and the Last Dragon – GG, CCA, Annie, PGA

Could Jump In: Belle – Annie, Sing 2 – Annie, PGA

To come up with the nominees in this category a random group from throughout the Academy chooses the shortlist and another random group votes on the eventual five nominees. Because of this process, we might end up seeing some interesting nominees like Bhutan’s Lunana: A Yak In the Classroom or more likely, Mexico’s Prayers for the Stolen.

As a result of this nominating method, it is possible that we will see from very unique picks that will snub many of the year’s most acclaimed films. However, I think I am just going to it play it safe and pick the top five most rewarded films.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Drive My Car – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Flee – GG, CCA

A Hero – GG, CCA

The Worst Person in the World – CCA, BAFTA

The Hand of God – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, Prayers For the Stolen, I’m Your Man, The Good Boss, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

The most acclaimed documentary of the year is clearly Questlove’s Summer of Soul and many have mentioned it as the obvious frontrunner to win here. If the film does get nominated in this category, I think it has a very good chance at winning but I don’t think it will be nominated. The Academy has had a long-standing bias against docs that have consisted primarily of archival material and Summer of Soul fits this trend that led to the snubs of Apollo 11, Jane, and Won’t You Be My Neighbor. All of these films were also discussed as the frontrunners in their respective years and won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Documentary Feature.

With Summer of Soul out, there are two films that I think are essentially locked for nominations here: Flee and The Rescue. They have both performed fantastically at the precursors and will probably be battling it out for the win unless Summer of Soul gets nominated. The last three slots here are a lot more uncertain. I have a feeling that both Ascension and Procession will make it in. That last slot, to me, is between Writing With Fire, The First Wave, Attica, Faya Dayi, and The Velvet Underground.

The Velvet Underground is largely composed of archival footage, so that’s out. Attica reminds me of last year’s nominee Crip Camp as it discusses an event that happened around 50 years ago and the actions and reforms that have been taken after that event. However, last year was a weaker year than this year is and I’m not sure if the largely archival nature of Attica will be to its benefit. Faya Dayi is a dreamy ethnographic film and as a result, I think it will be too small to get in here. Totally Under Control, another film about the COVID-19 pandemic, was totally ignored last year and I doubt people want to vote for a film about something that likely still consumes a large part of their daily lives and, as a result, I don’t think The First Wave will be nominated. That leaves Writing With Fire which has social relevancy and is not composed of largely archival footage.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Flee – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

The Rescue – CCA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

Ascension – CCA, CEH, PGA

Procession – CCA

Writing With Fire – IDA, PGA

Could Jump In: Summer of Soul – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA, Attica – CCA, The First Wave – PGA, Faya Dayi – IDA, CEH, The Velvet Underground – CEH

There are some topics that the Academy highlights in these categories consistently but other than that, predictions in these categories are essentially throwing darts at a map.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

The Long Goodbye

When the Sun Sets

Censor of Dreams

Tala’vision

You’re Dead, Helen

Could Jump In: The Criminals, Frimas

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Queen of Basketball

Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis

Terror Contagion

Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker

Three Songs for Benazir

Could Jump In: When We Were Bullies, Audible, Day of Rage

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Robin Robin

Us Again

Namoo

The Windshield Wiper

Step Into the River

Could Jump In: The Musician, Only a Child, Affairs of the Art

Dune will be winning this category and that assertion truly isn’t up for debate. The question is, who will the four other nominees be?

Well, first off, I don’t see a world where Spider-Man: No Way Home doesn’t get a nomination here and though it missed both BAFTA and CCA, it’s far and away the biggest movie of the year and this is where those films get their flowers.

Shang-Chi was also a big hit and its 4 VES nods are definitely a positive indicator of it getting embraced. The last two slots, to me, are between Godzilla vs. Kong, No Time to Die, and The Matrix Resurrections. I am going to go with the former two. Even though neither 2014’s Godzilla nor 2018’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters were nominated for Best Visual Effects, Kong: Skull Island was and the Academy’s apparent affinity for the gigantic ape (they gave Peter Jackson’s King Kong a win here) I think will aid it in getting a nod here. Yes, a Daniel Craig-Bond film has never received a Visual Effects nod, but in terms of visuals this film is more *ahem* explosive than previous Bond ventures and I think the wide acclaim the film has could benefit it here. I don’t think the reactions to The Matrix Resurrections were generally positive and the Academy likes to nominate films that are generally well-liked in this category (ignore last year’s slate due to a dearth of films that are usually seen here).

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune – CCA, BAFTA, VES (6x)

Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES (3x)

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – CCA, VES (4x)

Godzilla vs. Kong – VES (3x)

No Time to Die – CCA, VES (1x), BAFTA

Could Jump In: The Matrix Resurrections – CCA, VES (3x), BAFTA, Free Guy – BAFTA, Eternals – VES (1x)

Dune, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, and West Side Story have all received nods from all four major precursors. I’m going to play it safe and keep them all in and with that there’s only one slot left. In the last five years, an average of three of the nominees in this category were Best Picture nominees and that’s why I am going to put CCA nominee Belfast here, though something like The Tragedy of Macbeth (which has the kind of production design that has historically been nodded to here), Cyrano, or The Power of the Dog.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Dune – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

Nightmare Alley – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

The French Dispatch – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

West Side Story – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

Belfast – CCA

Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth – ADG, SDSA, Cyrano – SDSA, BAFTA, The Power of the Dog – SDSA

Four films hit all four precursors and all four fit the mold of a nominee in this category. So the question is who will fill in that last slot?

I think that last slot is between four films, The Suicide Squad, Cyrano, and West Side Story, and Coming 2 America. West Side Story doesn’t have the flashiest material in this category but it is, by far, the biggest Best Picture contender of the four. The Suicide Squad did well at the guild nominations picking up 3 nods, but the backlash to the 2016 Suicide Squad’s win in this category or their desire to award something else this time around could hurt it. Coming 2 America is a pretty strong contender but it was released in March and any buzz it had then has largely dissipated. Cyrano getting in here would be like its period piece relatives Emma. and Victoria & Abdul which both got in without receiving MUAH nods. I am going to go with The Suicide Squad since they have shown they like the kind of makeup and hairstyling seen in these kind of films, though this slot is truly a toss-up between these four films.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

Dune – CCA, MUAH (2x), BAFTA

House of Gucci – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

Cruella – CCA, MUAH (2x), BAFTA

The Suicide Squad – MUAH (3x)

Could Jump In: Cyrano – BAFTA, West Side Story – MUAH, Coming 2 America – MUAH (3x)