Awards Insights

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First Oscar Predictions 2022 (May)

Oscar season is a never-ending cycle. When one season ends the other one springs up to fill the void. In that spirit, these are my first Oscar predictions for this year.

Go here for information about the casts, plots, studios, release dates, etc. of many of the Oscar contenders I list in my predictions.

Before starting, I just wanted to say that for all the categories, the first film listed is what I predict to win in that category. This applies for every category except for Best Picture since I don’t think Nightmare Alley will be winning the award, I just think it has the best chance of getting nominated for BP. If the film that wins one of the 3 main awards at TIFF in September also tackles social issues in some ways, that will most likely be my pick for Best Picture. At this point in time however, I have no clue as to what could win.

Well, without further ado, here are the predictions:

BEST PICTURE

Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

House of Gucci (MGM)

Soggy Bottom (MGM)

West Side Story (20^th Century)

The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple+/A24)

The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

Dune (Warner Bros.)

Coda (Apple+)

A Hero (Amazon)

Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM) (if not released The French Dispatch takes this spot)

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Respect, In the Heights, Eternals, The Many Saints of Newark, A Journal for Jordan, Being the Ricardos, Tick, Tick…Boom, The Harder They Fall, Don’t Look Up, The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, The Northman, The Whale, Next Goal Wins, Don’t Worry Darling, The Card Counter, Cry Macho, Passing, The Hand of God

Longer Shots: King Richard, Blue Bayou, Spencer, Belfast, The Green Knight, Stillwater, Mothering Sunday, Decision to Leave, Mass, Cyrano, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Blonde, Annette

BEST DIRECTOR

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

Ridley Scott – House of Gucci

Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

Denis Villenueve – Dune

Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Sian Heder – CODA, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Jon M. Chu – In the Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos, Robert Eggers – The Northman, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Tick, Tick…Boom, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, David O. Russell – Canterbury Glass

BEST ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Will Smith – King Richard

Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

Adam Driver – House of Gucci

Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Anthony Ramos – In the Heights, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Alexander Skarsgard – The Northman, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Matt Damon – Stillwater/The Last Duel

BEST ACTRESS

Jennifer Hudson – Respect

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Could Jump In: Ana De Armas – Blonde, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go supporting), Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up/Red, White, and Water, Halle Berry – Bruised, Glenn Close – Sunset Boulevard, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling, Tilda Swinton – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Emilia Jones – CODA, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley

Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom

Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall

Could Jump In: Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter/The Northman, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Colman Domingo – Zola, David Alvarez – West Side Story, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Troy Kotsur – CODA, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch, Jack Farthing – Spencer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)

Ruth Negga – Passing

Olga Merediz – In the Heights

Marlee Matlin – CODA

Ann Dowd – Mass

Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Anya Taylor-Joy – The Northman/Canterbury Glass/Last Night in Soho, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Sally Hawkins – Spencer, Vanessa Hudgens – Tick, Tick…Boom, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Soggy Bottom

Being the Ricardos

Don’t Look Up

The French Dispatch

A Hero

Could Jump In: CODA, Blue Bayou, Mass, Don’t Worry Darling, Last Night in Soho, The Whale, Canterbury Glass, C’mon C’mon

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

House of Gucci

The Power of the Dog

Nightmare Alley

A Journal for Jordan

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Could Jump In: West Side Story, Zola, Next Goal Wins, The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Humans, Dune

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Encanto

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Apollo 10 1/2

Flee

Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Raya and the Last Dragon, Spirit Untamed, Cryptozoo, Vivo

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nightmare Alley

Dune

The French Dispatch

House of Gucci

Being the Ricardos

Could Jump In: West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, In the Heights, The Last Duel, Don’t Worry Darling, Belfast

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Could Jump In: House of Gucci, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Passing, Three Thousand Years of Longing

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

House of Gucci

Cyrano

West Side Story

Don’t Worry Darling

Dune

Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom, Blonde, The Last Duel

BEST FILM EDITING

Dune

Don’t Look Up

House of Gucci

West Side Story

Last Night in Soho

Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, The Power of the Dog

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Eternals

The Suicide Squad

Cyrano

Being the Ricardos

House of Gucci

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Last Night in Soho, Dune, Old, Blonde, Nightmare Alley, The Whale

BEST SOUND

Dune

Eternals

Top Gun: Maverick

West Side Story

A Quiet Place: Part II

Could Jump In: In the Heights, No Time to Die, Tick, Tick…Boom, Respect, Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up, Spider-Man: No Way Home

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune

Eternals

The Suicide Squad

Spider-Man: No Way Home

The Matrix 4

Could Jump In: BIOS, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Shang Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place: Part II

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

Dune – Hans Zimmer

Nightmare Alley – Alexandre Desplat

The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat

Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell

Could Jump In: Eternals – Ramin Djawadi, The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell, Spencer – Jonny Greenwood, Canterbury Glass – Hildur Guonadottir, Zola – Mica Levi, Luca – Dan Romer, No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

No Time to Die

Encanto

Dear Evan Hansen

Tick, Tick…Boom

Defying Gravity

Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Cruella, Annette, Cyrano, Vivo, House of Gucci, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

May 13, 2021
Final Oscar Predictions 2021

Well, it ends here. After my first set of predictions in March 2020 (where I picked The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win Best Picture) the Oscars have finally come.

So, without further ado…

Here are my FINAL predictions (with links to my explanations):

BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari

BEST DIRECTOR: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Could Steal: No one

BEST ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Could Steal: Anthony Hopkins – The Father

BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Could Steal: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Could Steal: No one

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

Could Steal: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

Could Steal: Nomadland

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Soul

Could Steal: Wolfwalkers

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

Could Steal: No one

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

Could Steal: Mank

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Could Steal: Emma.

BEST EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Could Steal: Sound of Metal or Nomadland

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Could Steal: Hillbilly Elegy or Pinocchio

BEST SOUND: Sound of Metal

Could Steal: No one

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

Could Steal: The Midnight Sky

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Soul

Could Steal: No one

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: One Night in Miami

Could Steal: The Life Ahead or Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Another Round

Could Steal: Collective or Quo Vadis, Aida?

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: My Octopus Teacher

Could Steal: Time, Collective, or Crip Camp

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: If Anything Happens I Love You

Could Steal: Burrow

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Two Distant Strangers

Could Steal: The Letter Room or Feeling Through

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: A Concerto is a Conversation

Could Steal: A Love Song for Latasha, Colette, or Hunger Ward

The Academy Awards will on Sunday, April 25th at 7 PM CT on ABC and streaming.

April 24, 2021
FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

BEST PICTURE

2020 – Parasite – SAG, WGA

2019 – Green Book – GG, PGA

2018 – The Shape of Water – CCA, DGA, PGA

2017 – Moonlight – GG, WGA

2016 – Spotlight – SAG, CCA, WGA

2015 – Birdman – SAG, DGA, PGA

2014 – 12 Years a Slave – GG, BAFTA, CCA, PGA

2013 – Argo – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

2012 – The Artist – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA

2011 – The King’s Speech – BAFTA, SAG, DGA, PGA

2010 – The Hurt Locker – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

Yes, I know, Nomadland does not really seem like the type of film that wins Best Picture but let’s look at some stats. A film absolutely needs to win at least one of PGA (Nomadland won here), WGA (Promising Young Woman), or SAG (The Trial of the Chicago 7) to win Best Picture. If two of these are not won then the film needs at least one of GG, CCA, or DGA to win. These are the only ways films have won in the era of the preferential ballot and the only film that fits all of this criteria is Nomadland as it has won the GG, the CCA, and the DGA. The Trial of the Chicago seems like the traditional type of winner here but Nomadland has all the data behind it.

Nominees:

Nomadland – GG, CCA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – SAG

Minari

Promising Young Woman – WGA

Judas and the Black Messiah

The Father

Sound of Metal

Mank

Pick: Nomadland

BEST DIRECTOR

This one is probably the most locked award of the night as Zhao has won every major precursor and almost every critics’ award in her category. Nobody else has a chance.

Nominees:

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

David Fincher – Mank

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

Pick: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

April 24, 2021
FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

BEST ACTOR

While Anthony Hopkins’ BAFTA win shows that there is support for his performance, BAFTA does often show a preference for British actors and Boseman should still be able to win. However, some are saying that the Hopkins win is indicative of a very popular push for the veteran’s work to be recognized. Still, I don’t think it will be enough to overtake Boseman. This does, however, show that there is a lot of support for The Father and it may be a mistake to predict the film being shut out.

Nominees:

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, CCA, SAG

Anthony Hopkins – The Father – BAFTA

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Steven Yeun – Minari

Gary Oldman – Mank

Pick: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST ACTRESS

A stat that is important, I think, is that no Best Actress winner in at least the last 10 years has lost at the Film Independent Spirit awards if they were nominated there. That means that if the eventual Best Actress winner is nominated at the Spirit awards it will win there as well. Carey Mulligan was the winner from the Spirits and if I were to go by the previously-mentioned logic, Andra Day and Mulligan are the only two that have a chance at winning here (since Day was not nominated at the Spirits). This is only one of the stats that are in play here and the question is which of these stats is the most breakable?

While the SAG award has been in existence (it was started in the mid-90s), no Best Actress winner won without a nomination there. Andra Day is the only nominee that did not pull off a nomination at SAG and while some might say that is because her film had a really late release date and was therefore underseen, Judas and the Black Messiah also had a late release date but Kaluuya was still able to garner a SAG nom. This seems like a pretty strong stat since there are hundreds of people that vote for the SAG awards who also vote for the Oscars.

Another stat is that every Best Actress winner in the 21st century so far won at either SAG or BAFTA. Davis won SAG and McDormand won BAFTA but this year at BAFTA, a jury of around 10 people chose the nominations in the acting and directing categories for the first time this century and actresses like Davis, Mulligan, and Day did not receive a nomination, probably as a result. In the end, I feel that BAFTA would have gone to Mulligan without the juries and that the two somewhat similar roles from Day and Davis might cancel each other out a bit and Mulligan will prevail.

Nominees:

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG

Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG

Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

Pick: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya has taken the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, SAG award, and BAFTA for his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. While some say that Lakeith Stanfield’s surprise inclusion here could siphon votes away from Kaluuya, Kaluuya is the only acting sweeper this year and I think he is too far ahead at this point to lose.

Nominees:

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

Pick: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

2020 – Laura Dern – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2019 – Regina King – GG, CCA

2018 – Allison Janney – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2017 – Viola Davis – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2016 – Alicia Vikander – SAG, CCA

2015 – Patricia Arquette – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

Even though some say Glenn Close is still in this race, I really think that the Razie nomination may have been the nail in the coffin for her. So in my mind this is between Youn Yuh-Jung and Maria Bakalova. The former has won the SAG and BAFTA awards while the latter has won the Critics Choice award. Even though purely comedic performances aren’t often recognized in this category, Bakalova’s performance is one that has transcended that bias as even who have not even watched the movie know about the quality and success of her performance. Youn’s performance in Minari is more of a traditional winner in this category and this is an excellent place to award Minari especially when it will likely not win anywhere else. Since I think Minari has a lot of love, I am going with Youn.

Nominees:

Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – SAG, BAFTA

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman – The Father

Amanda Seyfried – Mank

Pick: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

April 24, 2021
FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

2019 – Green Book – GG

2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

2015 – Birdman – GG

2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

So, essentially, the winner in this category is the film that wins the most precursors unless a film that won at least one precursor wins Best Picture. Therefore, Promising Young Woman will win Original Screenplay unless The Trial of the Chicago 7 somehow pulls off a Best Picture win. And if two films are tied (Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri both had two precursors each in 2018), the film that won’t win anywhere else will win.

Nominees:

Promising Young Woman – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG

Minari

Judas and the Black Messiah

Sound of Metal

Pick: Promising Young Woman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

2020 – Jojo Rabbit – BAFTA, WGA

2019 – BlacKKKlansman – BAFTA

2018 – Call Me By Your Name – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC

2017 – Moonlight – WGA (Original), USC

2016 – The Big Short – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC

2015 – The Imitation Game – WGA, USC

The same rules I laid out for Original Screenplay apply here as well. It will be the film that has won the most precursors unless its competitor wins Best Picture and if two or more films are tied it will be the one that won’t win anywhere else. This year, Nomadland, the Best Picture frontrunner, has the most precursors with two (CCA, USC) and The Father has 1 (BAFTA). So going by my rules Nomadland should win this but I can’t shake the feeling that the people who saw The Father really liked it (it has an 8.3 IMDb rating right now) and since the film probably won’t win anywhere else (Hopkins has chance in Best Actor but it’s extremely slim), maybe they’ll want to push it here. It’s also true that Nomadland does not seem like a Screenplay film and more like a Director film and doesn’t seem to be in the same caliber of film that generates the kind of love that wins Picture, Director, and Screenplay (Parasite, Birdman, and 12 Years a Slave have recently accomplished this feat). Anyway, if Nomadland loses Picture it will definitely lose here but it does not need a win here to win Picture. So I am going to go with The Father because I believe that The Father is that late-breaking film that surprises and I’ve seen so much love for Anthony Hopkins’ performance in the last couple of weeks. I was previously thinking that maybe all the love for the film is reserved solely for Hopkins’ performance but its 8.3 IMDb score says otherwise. All of this might just be smoke and mirrors but I do think the love for the film will get it a win here and I feel safe saying that since Nomadland does not need a win here to win Picture.

Nominees:

The Father – BAFTA

Nomadland – CCA, USC

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA

One Night in Miami

The White Tiger

Pick: The Father

April 23, 2021
FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

BEST SOUND

One stat that I thing is crucial here is that no winner in either Best Sound Editing or Best Sound Mixing in the 2010s was not a best Picture nominee. Skyfall in 2013 is the sole exception but it tied for the Best Sound Editing win with Zero Dark Thirty, a Best Picture nominee. Sound Of Metal and Mank are the only Best Picture nominees here and since Sound of Metal has the precursor support it should win. Also, sound is such a crucial component of Sound of Metal as the film follows the journey of a man losing his hearing. Soul is probably Sound Of Metal’s only competition here but I think that Sound of Metal should be able to pull away with the win.

Nominees:

Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS

Soul – CAS (Animated), MPSE (Animated)

Greyhound – MPSE

Mank

News of the World

Pick: Sound of Metal

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

2020 – Rocketman GG, CCA

2019 – A Star is Born – GG, CCA

2018 – Coco – CCA

2017 – La La Land – GG, CCA

2016 – Spectre – GG

2015 – Selma – GG, CCA

2014 – Frozen – CCA

2013 – Skyfall – GG, CCA

This is a 3-way race between Husavik from Eurovision Song Contest, Speak Now from One Night in Miami, and lo si (Seen) from The Life Ahead. Husavik is the only nominated song that is heard within the movie and not in the closing credits, which is something the Academy often looks favorly upon. Speak Now is the uplifting socially-relevant song that will give some recognition to a film that many thought was snubbed. And lo si (Seen) is Diane Warren’s twelfth Oscar nomination and many might feel that this is a great opportunity to give the veteran her due. Going by past data it seems that it’s between The Life Ahead and One Night in Miami as the former won the Globe and the latter won at the CCA. It’s also, I think, important to mention that all of these films are well-known films that had love. One Night in Miami fits that description to a much greater degree than The Life Ahead so even though Speak Now could split votes from the other socially-relevant songs from The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Judas and the Black Messiah. I’m still going to go with Speak Now because of One Night in Miami’s popularity and nominations in other categories and since this will probably be the place where they awarddouble-nominated Leslie Odom Jr.

Nominees:

One Night in Miami – Speak Now – CCA

Eurovision Song Contest – Husavik

The Life Ahead – lo si (Seen) – GG

Judas and the Black Messiah – Fight For You

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Hear My Voice

Pick: One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Soul has won at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the Critics Choice Awards in this category and has a pretty secure hold on the Oscar as well. Soul has strong advantage as the film is about a jazz musician and since Jon Batiste’s original jazz pieces are included as part of the score with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s background score, I don’t see how Soul can lose here.

Nominees:

Soul – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Minari

News of the World

Mank

Da 5 Bloods

Pick: Soul

April 22, 2021
FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

BEST FILM EDITING

2020 – Ford v Ferrari – BAFTA

2019 – Bohemian Rhapsody – ACE

2018 – Dunkirk – ACE, CCA

2017 – Hacksaw Ridge – BAFTA

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, ACE, CCA

2015 – Whiplash – BAFTA

In the past six years, the winner in the Best Editing category has crossed over with a Best Sound Mixing or Editing winner as well. Sound of Metal has a good chance of continuing that trend as, like Whiplash before it, is a drummer-focused drama with great editing. However, I think that The Trial of the Chicago 7 has a great chance of pulling away here since I don’t really see it winning anywhere else. With its recent wins from SAG, ACE and MPSE, it seems that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a well-liked film among people in the industry. It is certainly the most widely-watched of the Best Picture nominees and I think that its popularity should bring it at least one win. Therefore, I think the film’s flashy editing should bring it a win as it has the precursors necessary.

Nominees:

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA (tied), ACE

Sound of Metal – CCA (tied), BAFTA

Nomadland

The Father

Promising Young Woman

Pick: The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

Even though Mank did nab ASC, Nomadland is still most likely going to take this especially since ASC often diverges from Oscar. Nomadland took BAFTA and CCA which are more predictive so I’ll keep it as the winner. While Mank does have that showy black-and-white cinematography, Nomadland’s vistas are absolutely stunning as well so I think it still should win.

Nominees:

Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA

Mank – ASC

News of the World

Judas and the Black Messiah

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Pick: Nomadland

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

2020 – Little Women – BAFTA

2019 – Black Panther – CCA, CDG

2018 – Phantom Thread – BAFTA, CCA

2017 – Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them –

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

While Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them recently won with no precursor wins, it was not facing a film that had swept BAFTA, CCA, and CDA since its main competition, Jackie, lost CDA. So Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should win this over Emma..

Nominees:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG (Period)

Emma.

Mulan – CDG (Fantasy)

Mank

Pinocchio

Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

April 21, 2021
FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

ANIMATED FEATURE

With the Annie award yesterday, Soul has completely swept this category and it seems close to impossible that anything else can win.

Nominees:

Soul – GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA, Annie

Wolfwalkers

Onward

Over the Moon

A Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon

Pick: Soul

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

This one also seems like a no-brainer since Another Round’s Thomas Vinterberg earned a nomination in Best Director. The movie obviously has a lot of love and while it would probably be more satisfying for Vinterberg to earn his Oscar recognition for something like Festen or The Hunt, it’s great that he’s finally getting his due from the Academy.

Nominees:

Another Round – BAFTA

Quo Vadis, Aida?

Collective

Better Days

The Man Who Sold His Skin

Pick: Another Round

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

2020 – American Factory – DGA

2019 – Free Solo – BAFTA, ACE

2018 – Icarus

2017 – OJ: Made in America – ACE, CCA, DGA, PGA

2016 – Amy – BAFTA, ACE, CCA, PGA

2015 – Citizenfour – BAFTA, ACE, DGA

Even though it doesn’t seem to be a tough to predict race going by the precursors that My Octopus Teacher has won, I could easily see every other nominee, except for The Mole Agent, pulling away with a victory. Collective and Time are critical favorites and Crip Camp has the Obamas behind them but none of them have won any major precursors. I think that what is happening is that those “message” films are essentially splitting votes with one another and the comparatively lighter My Octopus Teacher is benefitting as a result. Another thing to mention is that no winner in this category in the past six years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and this year the only film that fits that criteria is My Octopus Teacher.

Nominees:

My Octopus Teacher – BAFTA, PGA, ACE

Collective

Time

Crip Camp

The Mole Agent

Pick: My Octopus Teacher

April 18, 2021
FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

To me, the winners of these short categories either go to a film with qn extremely satisfying ending or a film that touches on an especially relevant issue. Two Distant Strangers, a film about a man who has to constantly relive his encounter with a police officer, is extremely relevant right now with the trial of Derek Chauvin for the killing of George Floyd going on right now and the killing of Daunte Wright on Sunday fresh in our memories. While a film like Feeling Through or The Present may have won last year or the year before, I don’t really see how Two Distant Strangers loses this award especially since the voters have previously awarded a film tackling race relations recently in this category (Skin in 2019), so they are not shy about this topic. Still, watch out for Feeling Through which is the probably the most optimistic of the films here and follows the past templates of films that have won. Also, The Letter Room stars Oscar Isaac so make of that what you will.

Nominees:

Two Distant Strangers

The Letter Room

Feeling Through

The Present – BAFTA

White Eye

Pick: Two Distant Strangers

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Two shorts, If Anything Happens I Love You and Burrow are the only two that I can see winning here. The former is a Netflix tearjerker that tackles the subject of school shootings, while the latter is a comparatively lighter Pixar short. While Pixar has a great track record here, I believe that If Anything Happens I Love You will win as I have heard talk about it in non-Oscar contexts and it is a tearjerker, which will be really tempting to vote for especially in this category.

Nominees:

If Anything Happens I Love You

Burrow

Genius Loci

Opera

Yes-People

Pick: If Anything Happens I Love You

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

This one is probably the most wide-open of the categories and there definitely is no clear frontrunner. However, since I chose a Netflix-distributed short in the previous two categories I don’t think I can choose A Love Song for Latasha here since the Academy still does have a bias against streaming films. Granted, Netflix has had a lot of past success in these categories but I don’t see them sweeping these categories when films like Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom were left out of the Best Picture fold partly since it was a Netflix film (my theory). Anyway, that leaves the other three films with the greatest odds of winning this: A Concerto is a Conversation, Colette, and Hunger Ward. I am going to go with A Concerto is a Conversation since Colette doesn’t seem to have enough timeliness or lightness to win here and while Hunger Ward tackles an important subject, its probably too long as it is 40 minutes while the other films are closer to 20. That is if the Academy members actually watch the films because I don’t believe that the majority of the Academy chooses to vote in the shorts categories. Quick note: Do Not Split is about the protests in Hong Kong and I am barely mentioning it because I don’t believe that the Academy wants to anger China when it is so important to Hollywood market.

Nominees:

A Conversation is a Conversation

A Love Song for Latasha

Colette

Hunger Ward

Do Not Split

Pick: A Concerto is a Conversation

April 17, 2021
Final 2021 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling

VISUAL EFFECTS

The last 10 winners in this category (1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in categories other than Visual Effects in addition to their Visual Effects nominations (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). Only Tenet and Mulan can boast the same this year. All of these films are also critically-acclaimed and are widely-acknowledged to be in the top 30 films of their year. Only Tenet can claim the same as none of its competitors have a Metascore above 60 (except Mulan but its reputation is greatly tarnished after the widespread backlash to the film).

With that said, the VES award for best Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature is one of the best predictors when it comes to this award and The Midnight Sky triumphed over Tenet there. Still, based on the facts above I am going to go with Tenet here.

Nominees:

Tenet – CCA, BAFTA

The Midnight Sky – VES

The One and Only Ivan – VES

Mulan

Love and Monsters

Pick: Tenet

PRODUCTION DESIGN

2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

In the past six years, every winner in this category has won both an ADG award and a CCA award and Mank should continue that trend. With Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s win last year we know that this category loves to reward nostalgia and Mank is a great source of that with its immaculately-crafted and period-specific sets that give the audience a window into Old Hollywood. I don’t really see how anything can win since Mank has swept all the major precursors.

Nominees:

Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG (Period), SDSA

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

News of the World

Tenet – ADG (Fantasy)

The Father

Pick: Mank

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

Among the past six winners in this category, every single one has won a Makeup and Hairstyling Guild (MUAH) award. The two films that have one this year are Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Pinocchio. Suicide Squad is the only film in the past six years that has won with just MUAH but the other two precursors, BAFTA and CCA, were taken by Florence Foster Jenkins and Jackie respectively so Suicide Squad was not against a film that had swept the precursors. Therefore, I don’t think Pinocchio has enough to pull this off and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should add this category to its total.

Nominees:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH

Pinocchio – MUAH

Hillbilly Elegy

Mank

Emma.

Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

April 12, 2021