Awards Insights

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  • ‘Nomadland’ Wins Best Picture; Hopkins and McDormand Triumph

    ‘Nomadland’ Wins Best Picture; Hopkins and McDormand Triumph

    Nomadland (unsurprisingly) won Best Picture after starting its winning spree with a victory at TIFF (Toronto International Film Festival) in September.

    Chloe Zhao became the second woman ever, and first woman of color to win Best Director.

    Anthony Hopkins had an upset win over Chadwick Boseman and now two Oscar wins on six nominations

    Frances McDormand also added to her total with her third acting Oscar win (she also won her fourth overall Oscar today for producing Nomadland) and she joins Meryl Streep and Ingrid Bergman as the actresses with the second-most acting wins after Katharine Hepburn.

    Anyway here are the winners:

    BEST PICTURE

    • The Father – David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers
    • Mank – Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
    • Minari – Christina Oh, Producer
    • Nomadland – Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers [WINNER]
    • Promising Young Woman – Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers
    • Sound of Metal – Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers

    BEST DIRECTOR

    • Another Round – Thomas Vinterberg
    • Mank – David Fincher
    • Minari – Lee Isaac Chung
    • Nomadland – Chloé Zhao [WINNER]
    • Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell

    BEST ACTOR

    • Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
    • Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Anthony Hopkins in The Father [WINNER]
    • Gary Oldman in Mank
    • Steven Yeun in Minari

    SUPPORTING ACTOR

    • Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah [WINNER]
    • Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night in Miami…
    • Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
    • LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah

    BEST ACTRESS

    • Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
    • Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
    • Frances McDormand in Nomadland [WINNER]
    • Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    • Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
    • Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
    • Olivia Colman in The Father
    • Amanda Seyfried in Mank
    • Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari [WINNER]

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan – Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
    • The Father – Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller [WINNER]
    • Nomadland – Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
    • One Night in Miami… – Screenplay by Kemp Powers
    • The White Tiger – Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
    • Minari – Written by Lee Isaac Chung
    • Promising Young Woman – Written by Emerald Fennell [WINNER]
    • Sound of Metal – Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Written by Aaron Sorkin

    FILM EDITING

    • The Father – Yorgos Lamprinos
    • Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
    • Promising Young Woman – Frédéric Thoraval
    • Sound of Metal – Mikkel E. G. Nielsen [WINNER]
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten

    CINEMATOGRAPHY

    • Judas and the Black Messiah – Sean Bobbitt
    • Mank – Erik Messerschmidt [WINNER]
    • News of the World – Dariusz Wolski
    • Nomadland – Joshua James Richards
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Phedon Papamichael

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    • The Father – Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
    • Mank – Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale [WINNER]
    • News of the World – Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
    • Tenet – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

    COSTUME DESIGN

    • Emma – Alexandra Byrne
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ann Roth [WINNER]
    • Mank – Trish Summerville
    • Mulan – Bina Daigeler
    • Pinocchio – Massimo Cantini Parrini

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    • Emma – Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
    • Hillbilly Elegy – Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson [WINNER]
    • Mank – Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
    • Pinocchio – Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

    ORIGINAL SCORE

    • Da 5 Bloods – Terence Blanchard
    • Mank – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
    • Minari – Emile Mosseri
    • News of the World – James Newton Howard
    • Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste [WINNER]

    ORIGINAL SONG

    • “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah [WINNER]
      Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
    • “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
      Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
    • “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
      Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
    • “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
      Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
    • “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
      Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

    SOUND

    • Greyhound – Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
    • Mank – Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
    • News of the World – Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
    • Soul – Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
    • Sound of Metal – Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh [WINNER]

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    • Love and Monsters – Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
    • The Midnight Sky – Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
    • Mulan – Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
    • The One and Only Ivan – Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
    • Tenet – Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher [WINNER]

    ANIMATED FEATURE

    • Onward – Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
    • Over the Moon – Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
    • A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon – Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley
    • Soul – Pete Docter and Dana Murray [WINNER]
    • Wolfwalkers – Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    • Collective – Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
    • Crip Camp – Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
    • The Mole Agent – Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
    • My Octopus Teacher – Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster [WINNER]
    • Time – Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    • Another Round (Denmark) [WINNER]
    • Better Days (Hong Kong)
    • Collective (Romania)
    • The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
    • Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

    ANIMATED SHORT

    • Burrow – Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
    • Genius Loci – Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
    • If Anything Happens I Love You – Will McCormack and Michael Govier [WINNER]
    • Opera – Erick Oh
    • Yes-People – Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

    • Colette – Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard [WINNER]
    • A Concerto Is a Conversation – Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
    • Do Not Split – Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
    • Hunger Ward – Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
    • A Love Song for Latasha – Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

    LIVE ACTION SHORT

    • Feeling Through – Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
    • The Letter Room – Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
    • The Present – Farah Nabulsi
    • Two Distant Strangers – Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe [WINNER]
    • White Eye – Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman
  • Final Oscar Predictions 2021

    Final Oscar Predictions 2021

    Well, it ends here. After my first set of predictions in March 2020 (where I picked The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win Best Picture) the Oscars have finally come.

    So, without further ado…

    Here are my FINAL predictions (with links to my explanations):

    BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari

    BEST DIRECTOR: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Steal: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

    Could Steal: Nomadland

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Soul

    Could Steal: Wolfwalkers

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

    Could Steal: Mank

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Emma.

    BEST EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Steal: Sound of Metal or Nomadland

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Hillbilly Elegy or Pinocchio

    BEST SOUND: Sound of Metal

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

    Could Steal: The Midnight Sky

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Soul

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: One Night in Miami

    Could Steal: The Life Ahead or Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Another Round

    Could Steal: Collective or Quo Vadis, Aida?

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: My Octopus Teacher

    Could Steal: Time, Collective, or Crip Camp

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: If Anything Happens I Love You

    Could Steal: Burrow

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Two Distant Strangers

    Could Steal: The Letter Room or Feeling Through

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: A Concerto is a Conversation

    Could Steal: A Love Song for Latasha, Colette, or Hunger Ward

     

    The Academy Awards will on Sunday, April 25th at 7 PM CT on ABC and streaming.

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    BEST PICTURE

    2020 – Parasite – SAG, WGA

    2019 – Green Book – GG, PGA

    2018 – The Shape of Water – CCA, DGA, PGA

    2017 – Moonlight – GG, WGA

    2016 – Spotlight – SAG, CCA, WGA

    2015 – Birdman – SAG, DGA, PGA

    2014 – 12 Years a Slave – GG, BAFTA, CCA, PGA

    2013 – Argo – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

    2012 – The Artist – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA

    2011 – The King’s Speech – BAFTA, SAG, DGA, PGA

    2010 – The Hurt Locker – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

    Yes, I know, Nomadland does not really seem like the type of film that wins Best Picture but let’s look at some stats. A film absolutely needs to win at least one of PGA (Nomadland won here), WGA (Promising Young Woman), or SAG (The Trial of the Chicago 7) to win Best Picture. If two of these are not won then the film needs at least one of GG, CCA, or DGA to win. These are the only ways films have won in the era of the preferential ballot and the only film that fits all of this criteria is Nomadland as it has won the GG, the CCA, and the DGA. The Trial of the Chicago seems like the traditional type of winner here but Nomadland has all the data behind it.

    Nominees: 

    Nomadland – GG, CCA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – SAG

    Minari

    Promising Young Woman – WGA

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    The Father

    Sound of Metal

    Mank

    Pick: Nomadland

    BEST DIRECTOR

    This one is probably the most locked award of the night as Zhao has won every major precursor and almost every critics’ award in her category. Nobody else has a chance.

    Nominees:

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    David Fincher – Mank

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

    Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

    Pick: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    While Anthony Hopkins’ BAFTA win shows that there is support for his performance, BAFTA does often show a preference for British actors and Boseman should still be able to win. However, some are saying that the Hopkins win is indicative of a very popular push for the veteran’s work to be recognized. Still, I don’t think it will be enough to overtake Boseman. This does, however, show that there is a lot of support for The Father and it may be a mistake to predict the film being shut out.

    Nominees:

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, CCA, SAG

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – BAFTA

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Pick: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    BEST ACTRESS

    A stat that is important, I think, is that no Best Actress winner in at least the last 10 years has lost at the Film Independent Spirit awards if they were nominated there. That means that if the eventual Best Actress winner is nominated at the Spirit awards it will win there as well. Carey Mulligan was the winner from the Spirits and if I were to go by the previously-mentioned logic, Andra Day and Mulligan are the only two that have a chance at winning here (since Day was not nominated at the Spirits). This is only one of the stats that are in play here and the question is which of these stats is the most breakable?

    While the SAG award has been in existence (it was started in the mid-90s), no Best Actress winner won without a nomination there. Andra Day is the only nominee that did not pull off a nomination at SAG and while some might say that is because her film had a really late release date and was therefore underseen, Judas and the Black Messiah also had a late release date but Kaluuya was still able to garner a SAG nom. This seems like a pretty strong stat since there are hundreds of people that vote for the SAG awards who also vote for the Oscars.

    Another stat is that every Best Actress winner in the 21st century so far won at either SAG or BAFTA. Davis won SAG and McDormand won BAFTA but this year at BAFTA, a jury of around 10 people chose the nominations in the acting and directing categories for the first time this century and actresses like Davis, Mulligan, and Day did not receive a nomination, probably as a result. In the end, I feel that BAFTA would have gone to Mulligan without the juries and that the two somewhat similar roles from Day and Davis might cancel each other out a bit and Mulligan will prevail.

    Nominees:

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Pick: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya has taken the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, SAG award, and BAFTA for his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. While some say that Lakeith Stanfield’s surprise inclusion here could siphon votes away from Kaluuya, Kaluuya is the only acting sweeper this year and I think he is too far ahead at this point to lose.

    Nominees:

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

    Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Pick: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    2020 – Laura Dern – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2019 – Regina King – GG, CCA

    2018 – Allison Janney – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2017 – Viola Davis – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2016 – Alicia Vikander – SAG, CCA

    2015 – Patricia Arquette – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    Even though some say Glenn Close is still in this race, I really think that the Razie nomination may have been the nail in the coffin for her. So in my mind this is between Youn Yuh-Jung and Maria Bakalova. The former has won the SAG and BAFTA awards while the latter has won the Critics Choice award. Even though purely comedic performances aren’t often recognized in this category, Bakalova’s performance is one that has transcended that bias as even who have not even watched the movie know about the quality and success of her performance. Youn’s performance in Minari is more of a traditional winner in this category and this is an excellent place to award Minari especially when it will likely not win anywhere else. Since I think Minari has a lot of love, I am going with Youn.

    Nominees:

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – SAG, BAFTA

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Pick: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

  • Film Independent Spirit Awards: ‘Nomadland’ Wins and Mulligan Rebounds

    Film Independent Spirit Awards: ‘Nomadland’ Wins and Mulligan Rebounds

    The Film Independent Spirit Awards were announced last night and while there were not many surprises (“Nomadland” won for example), Chadwick Boseman lost to Riz Ahmed in Best Male Lead while Carey Mulligan prevailed in Best Female Lead. The stats surrounding Best Actress and the Spirit awards tell me that only Mulligan and Andra Day now have a chance to win Best Actress since the rule is that if a Best Actress winner is nominated at the Spirits she will win there. Therefore, the race is between Mulligan (the Spirit winner) and Day (who was not nominated at the Spirits). The same rule does not hold as powerfully in Best Actor so don’t count out Boseman yet but I do see a greater opportunity for some one like Hopkins to upset.

     

    BEST FEATURE
    (Award given to the producer)

    NOMADLAND (WINNER)
    Producers: Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao

    FIRST COW
    Producers: Neil Kopp, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani

    MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
    Producers: Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf

    MINARI
    Producers: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh

    NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS
    Producers: Sara Murphy, Adele Romanski

    BEST FIRST FEATURE
    (Award given to director and producer)

    SOUND OF METAL (WINNER)
    Director: Darius Marder
    Producers: Bill Benz, Kathy Benz, Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche 

    I CARRY YOU WITH ME
    Director/Producer: Heidi Ewing
    Producers: Edher Campos, Mynette Louie, Gabriela Maire

    THE FORTY-YEAR-OLD VERSION
    Director/Producer: Radha Blank
    Producers: Inuka Bacote-Capiga, Jordan Fudge, Rishi Rajani, Jennifer Semler, Lena Waithe

    MISS JUNETEENTH
    Director: Channing Godfrey Peoples
    Producers: Toby Halbrooks, Tim Headington, Jeanie Igoe, James M. Johnston, Theresa Steele Page, Neil Creque Williams

    NINE DAYS
    Director: Edson Oda
    Producers: Jason Michael Berman, Mette-Marie Kongsved, Matthew Linder, Laura Tunstall, Datari Turner

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloé Zhao, Nomadland (WINNER)

    Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

    Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

    Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    Kelly Reichardt, First Cow

    BEST SCREENPLAY

    Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (WINNER)

    Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

    Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    Mike Makowsky, Bad Education

    Alice Wu, The Half of It

    BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

    Andy Siara, Palm Springs (WINNER)

    Kitty Green, The Assistant

    Noah Hutton, Lapsis

    Channing Godfrey Peoples, Juneteenth

    James Sweeney, Straight Up

    JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
    (Given to the best feature made for under $500,000; Award given to the writer, director and producer)

    RESIDUE (WINNER)
    Writer/Director: Merawi Gerima

    THE KILLING OF TWO LOVERS
    Writer/Director/Producer: Robert Machoian
    Producers: Scott Christopherson, Clayne Crawford

    LA LEYENDA NEGRA
    Writer/Director: Patricia Vidal Delgado
    Producers: Alicia Herder, Marcel Perez

    LINGUA FRANCA
    Writer/Director/Producer: Isabel Sandoval
    Producers: Darlene Catly Malimas, Jhett Tolentino, Carlo Velayo

    SAINT FRANCES
    Director/Producer: Alex Thompson
    Writer: Kelly O’Sullivan
    Producers: James Choi, Pierce Cravens, Ian Keiser, Eddie Linker, Raphael Nash, Roger Welp

    BEST MALE LEAD

    Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (WINNER)

    Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Adarsh Gourav, The White Tiger

    Rob Morgan, Bull

    Steven Yeun, Minari

    BEST FEMALE LEAD

    Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (WINNER) 

    Nicole Beharie, Miss Juneteenth

    Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    Julia Garner, The Assistant

    Frances McDormand, Nomadland

    BEST SUPPORTING MALE

    Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (WINNER) 

    Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Orion Lee, First Cow

    Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Benedict Wong, Nine Days

    BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

    Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (WINNER)

    Alexis Chikaeze, Miss Juneteenth

    Yeri Han, Minari

    Valerie Mahaffey, French Exit

    Talia Ryder, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

     Joshua James Richards, Nomadland (WINNER)

    Jay Keitel, She Dies Tomorrow

    Shabier Kirchner, Bull

    Michael Latham, The Assistant

    Hélène Louvart, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    BEST EDITING

    Chloé Zhao, Nomadland (WINNER) 

    Andy Canny, The Invisible Man

    Scott Cummings, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    Merawi Gerima, Residue

    Enat Sidi, I Carry You With Me

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
    (Award given to the director)

    QUO VADIS, AIDA? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (WINNER)
    Director: Jasmila Zbanic

    BACURAU (Brazil)
    Director: Juliano Dornelles, Kleber Mendonça Filho

    THE DISCIPLE (India)
    Director: Chaitanya Tamahane

    NIGHT OF THE KINGS (Ivory Coast)
    Director: Philippe Lacôte

    PREPARATIONS TO BE TOGETHER FOR AN UNKNOWN PERIOD OF TIME (Hungary)
    Director: Lili Horvát

    BEST DOCUMENTARY
    (Award given to the director and producer)

    CRIP CAMP (WINNER)
    Directors/Producers: Jim LeBrecht, Nicole Newnham
    Producer: Sara Bolder

    COLLECTIVE
    Director/Producer: Alexander Nanau
    Producers: Hanka Kastelicová, Bernard Michaux, Bianca Oana

    DICK JOHNSON IS DEAD
    Director/Producer: Kirsten Johnson
    Producers: Katy Chevigny, Marilyn Ness

    THE MOLE AGENT
    Director: Maite Alberdi
    Producer: Marcela Santibáñez

    TIME
    Director/Producer: Garrett Bradley
    Producers: Lauren Domino, Kellen Quinn

    ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD
    (Given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast)

    ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
    Director: Regina King
    Casting Directors: Kimberly R. Hardin
    Ensemble Cast: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom Jr.

    PRODUCERS AWARD
    (The Producers Award honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources, demonstrate the creativity, tenacity and vision required to produce quality independent films)

    Gerry Kim (WINNER) 

    Lucas Joaquin

    Kara Durrett

    SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD
    (The Someone to Watch Award recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition)

    EKWA MSANGI (WINNER)
    Director of Farewell Amor

    DAVID MIDELL
    Director of The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain

    ANNIE SILVERSTEIN
    Director of Bull

    TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD
    (The 26th Truer Than Fiction Award is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition)

    ELEGANCE BRATTON (WINNER)
    Director of Pier Kids

    CECILIA ALDARONDO
    Director of Landfall

    ELIZABETH LO
    Director of Stray

    BEST NEW NON-SCRIPTED OR DOCUMENTARY SERIES
    (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)

    IMMIGRATION NATION (WINNER)
    Executive Producers: Christina Clusiau, Shaul Schwarz, Dan Cogan, Jenny Raskin, Brandon Hill, Christian Thompson
    Co-Executive Producers: Andrey Alistratov, Jay Arthur Sterrenberg, Lauren Haber 

    ATLANTA’S MISSING AND MURDERED: THE LOST CHILDREN
    Executive Producers: Jeff Dupre, Joshua Bennett, Sam Pollard, Maro Chermayeff, John Legend, Mike Jackson, Ty Stiklorius

    CITY SO REAL
    Produced by: Zak Piper, Steve James
    Executive Producers: Jeff Skoll, Diane Weyermann, Alex Kotlowitz, Gordon Quinn, Betsy Steinberg, Jolene Pinder

    LOVE FRAUD
    Executive Producers: Rachel Grady, Heidi Ewing, Amy Goodman Kass, Vinnie Malhotra, Jihan Robinson, Michael Bloom, Maria Zuckerman

    WE’RE HERE
    Creators/Executive Producers: Stephen Warren, Johnnie Ingram
    Executive Producers: Eli Holzman, Aaron Saidman, Peter LoGreco
    Co-Executive Producers: Erin Haglund, Sabrina Mar

    BEST NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
    (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)

    I MAY DESTROY YOU (WINNER)
    Creator/Executive Producer: Michaela Coel
    Executive Producers: Phil Clarke, Roberto Troni

    A TEACHER
    Creator/Executive Producer: Hanna Fidell
    Executive Producers: Michael Costigan, Kate Mara, Louise Shore, Jason Bateman, Danny Brocklehurst
    Co-Executive Producer: Daniel Pipski

    LITTLE AMERICA
    Executive Producers: Lee Eisenberg, Joshuah Bearman, Joshua Davis, Arthur Spector, Alan Yang, Siân Heder, Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon

    SMALL AXE
    Executive Producers: Tracey Scoffield, David Tanner, Steve McQueen

    UNORTHODOX
    Creator/Executive Producer: Anna Winger
    Creator: Alexa Karolinski
    Executive Producer: Henning Kamm

    BEST FEMALE PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES

    Shira Haas, Unorthodox (WINNER) 

    Elle Fanning, The Great

    Abby McEnany, Work in Progress

    Maitreyi Ramakrishnan, Never Have I Ever

    Jordan Kristine Seamón, We Are Who We Are

    BEST MALE PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES

    Amit Rahav, Unorthodox (WINNER) 

    Conphidance, Little America

    Adam Ali, Little America

    Nicco Annan, P-Valley

    Harold Torres, ZeroZeroZero

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

    2019 – Green Book – GG

    2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

    2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

    2015 – Birdman – GG

    2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

    2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

    2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

    So, essentially, the winner in this category is the film that wins the most precursors unless a film that won at least one precursor wins Best Picture. Therefore, Promising Young Woman will win Original Screenplay unless The Trial of the Chicago 7 somehow pulls off a Best Picture win. And if two films are tied (Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri both had two precursors each in 2018), the film that won’t win anywhere else will win.

    Nominees:

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG

    Minari

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Sound of Metal

    Pick: Promising Young Woman

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    2020 – Jojo Rabbit – BAFTA, WGA

    2019 – BlacKKKlansman – BAFTA

    2018 – Call Me By Your Name – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC

    2017 – Moonlight – WGA (Original), USC

    2016 – The Big Short – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC

    2015 – The Imitation Game – WGA, USC

    The same rules I laid out for Original Screenplay apply here as well. It will be the film that has won the most precursors unless its competitor wins Best Picture and if two or more films are tied it will be the one that won’t win anywhere else. This year, Nomadland, the Best Picture frontrunner, has the most precursors with two (CCA, USC) and The Father has 1 (BAFTA). So going by my rules Nomadland should win this but I can’t shake the feeling that the people who saw The Father really liked it (it has an 8.3 IMDb rating right now) and since the film probably won’t win anywhere else (Hopkins has chance in Best Actor but it’s extremely slim), maybe they’ll want to push it here. It’s also true that Nomadland does not seem like a Screenplay film and more like a Director film and doesn’t seem to be in the same caliber of film that generates the kind of love that wins Picture, Director, and Screenplay (Parasite, Birdman, and 12 Years a Slave have recently accomplished this feat). Anyway, if Nomadland loses Picture it will definitely lose here but it does not need a win here to win Picture. So I am going to go with The Father because I believe that The Father is that late-breaking film that surprises and I’ve seen so much love for Anthony Hopkins’ performance in the last couple of weeks. I was previously thinking that maybe all the love for the film is reserved solely for Hopkins’ performance but its 8.3 IMDb score says otherwise. All of this might just be smoke and mirrors but I do think the love for the film will get it a win here and I feel safe saying that since Nomadland does not need a win here to win Picture.

    Nominees:

    The Father – BAFTA

    Nomadland – CCA, USC

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA

    One Night in Miami

    The White Tiger

    Pick: The Father

     

     

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    BEST SOUND

    One stat that I thing is crucial here is that no winner in either Best Sound Editing or Best Sound Mixing in the 2010s was not a best Picture nominee. Skyfall in 2013 is the sole exception but it tied for the Best Sound Editing win with Zero Dark Thirty, a Best Picture nominee. Sound Of Metal and Mank are the only Best Picture nominees here and since Sound of Metal has the precursor support it should win. Also, sound is such a crucial component of Sound of Metal as the film follows the journey of a man losing his hearing. Soul is probably Sound Of Metal’s only competition here but I think that Sound of Metal should be able to pull away with the win.

    Nominees:

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS

    Soul – CAS (Animated), MPSE (Animated)

    Greyhound – MPSE

    Mank

    News of the World

    Pick: Sound of Metal

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    2020 – Rocketman GG, CCA

    2019 – A Star is Born – GG, CCA

    2018 – Coco – CCA

    2017 – La La Land – GG, CCA

    2016 – Spectre – GG

    2015 – Selma – GG, CCA

    2014 – Frozen – CCA

    2013 – Skyfall – GG, CCA

    This is a 3-way race between Husavik from Eurovision Song Contest, Speak Now from One Night in Miami, and lo si (Seen) from The Life Ahead. Husavik is the only nominated song that is heard within the movie and not in the closing credits, which is something the Academy often looks favorly upon. Speak Now is the uplifting socially-relevant song that will give some recognition to a film that many thought was snubbed. And lo si (Seen) is Diane Warren’s twelfth Oscar nomination and many might feel that this is a great opportunity to give the veteran her due. Going by past data it seems that it’s between The Life Ahead and One Night in Miami as the former won the Globe and the latter won at the CCA. It’s also, I think, important to mention that all of these films are well-known films that had love. One Night in Miami fits that description to a much greater degree than The Life Ahead so even though Speak Now could split votes from the other socially-relevant songs from The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Judas and the Black Messiah. I’m still going to go with Speak Now because of One Night in Miami’s popularity and nominations in other categories and since this will probably be the place where they awarddouble-nominated Leslie Odom Jr.

    Nominees:

    One Night in Miami – Speak Now – CCA

    Eurovision Song Contest – Husavik

    The Life Ahead – lo si (Seen) – GG

    Judas and the Black Messiah – Fight For You

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Hear My Voice

    Pick: One Night in Miami

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul has won at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the Critics Choice Awards in this category and has a pretty secure hold on the Oscar as well. Soul has strong advantage as the film is about a jazz musician and since Jon Batiste’s original jazz pieces are included as part of the score with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s background score, I don’t see how Soul can lose here.

    Nominees:

    Soul – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Minari

    News of the World

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    Pick: Soul

     

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    BEST FILM EDITING

    2020 – Ford v Ferrari – BAFTA

    2019 – Bohemian Rhapsody – ACE

    2018 – Dunkirk – ACE, CCA

    2017 – Hacksaw Ridge – BAFTA

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, ACE, CCA

    2015 – Whiplash – BAFTA

    In the past six years, the winner in the Best Editing category has crossed over with a Best Sound Mixing or Editing winner as well. Sound of Metal has a good chance of continuing that trend as, like Whiplash before it, is a drummer-focused drama with great editing. However, I think that The Trial of the Chicago 7 has a great chance of pulling away here since I don’t really see it winning anywhere else. With its recent wins from SAG, ACE and MPSE, it seems that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a well-liked film among people in the industry. It is certainly the most widely-watched of the Best Picture nominees and I think that its popularity should bring it at least one win. Therefore, I think the film’s flashy editing should bring it a win as it has the precursors necessary.

    Nominees:

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA (tied), ACE

    Sound of Metal – CCA (tied), BAFTA

    Nomadland

    The Father

    Promising Young Woman

    Pick: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

    2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    Even though Mank did nab ASC, Nomadland is still most likely going to take this especially since ASC often diverges from Oscar. Nomadland took BAFTA and CCA which are more predictive so I’ll keep it as the winner. While Mank does have that showy black-and-white cinematography, Nomadland’s vistas are absolutely stunning as well so I think it still should win.

    Nominees: 

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA

    Mank – ASC

    News of the World

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Pick: Nomadland

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    2020 – Little Women – BAFTA

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, CDG

    2018 – Phantom Thread – BAFTA, CCA

    2017 – Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – 

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    While Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them recently won with no precursor wins, it was not facing a film that had swept BAFTA, CCA, and CDA since its main competition, Jackie, lost CDA. So Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should win this over Emma..

    Nominees:

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG (Period)

    Emma.

    Mulan – CDG (Fantasy)

    Mank

    Pinocchio

    Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    ANIMATED FEATURE

    With the Annie award yesterday, Soul has completely swept this category and it seems close to impossible that anything else can win.

    Nominees:

    Soul – GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA, Annie

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    A Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon

    Pick: Soul

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    This one also seems like a no-brainer since Another Round’s Thomas Vinterberg earned a nomination in Best Director. The movie obviously has a lot of love and while it would probably be more satisfying for Vinterberg to earn his Oscar recognition for something like Festen or The Hunt, it’s great that he’s finally getting his due from the Academy.

    Nominees:

    Another Round – BAFTA

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    Collective

    Better Days

    The Man Who Sold His Skin

    Pick: Another Round

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    2020 – American Factory – DGA

    2019 – Free Solo – BAFTA, ACE

    2018 – Icarus 

    2017 – OJ: Made in America – ACE, CCA, DGA, PGA

    2016 – Amy – BAFTA, ACE, CCA, PGA

    2015 – Citizenfour – BAFTA, ACE, DGA

    Even though it doesn’t seem to be a tough to predict race going by the precursors that My Octopus Teacher has won, I could easily see every other nominee, except for The Mole Agent, pulling away with a victory. Collective and Time are critical favorites and Crip Camp has the Obamas behind them but none of them have won any major precursors. I think that what is happening is that those “message” films are essentially splitting votes with one another and the comparatively lighter My Octopus Teacher is benefitting as a result. Another thing to mention is that no winner in this category in the past six years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and this year the only film that fits that criteria is My Octopus Teacher.

    Nominees:

    My Octopus Teacher – BAFTA, PGA, ACE

    Collective

    Time

    Crip Camp

    The Mole Agent

    Pick: My Octopus Teacher

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    To me, the winners of these short categories either go to a film with qn extremely satisfying ending or a film that touches on an especially relevant issue. Two Distant Strangers, a film about a man who has to constantly relive his encounter with a police officer, is extremely relevant right now with the trial of Derek Chauvin for the killing of George Floyd going on right now and the killing of Daunte Wright on Sunday fresh in our memories. While a film like Feeling Through or The Present may have won last year or the year before, I don’t really see how Two Distant Strangers loses this award especially since the voters have previously awarded a film tackling race relations recently in this category (Skin in 2019), so they are not shy about this topic. Still, watch out for Feeling Through which is the probably the most optimistic of the films here and follows the past templates of films that have won. Also, The Letter Room stars Oscar Isaac so make of that what you will.

    Nominees:

    Two Distant Strangers

    The Letter Room

    Feeling Through

    The Present – BAFTA

    White Eye

    Pick: Two Distant Strangers

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    Two shorts, If Anything Happens I Love You and Burrow are the only two that I can see winning here. The former is a Netflix tearjerker that tackles the subject of school shootings, while the latter is a comparatively lighter Pixar short. While Pixar has a great track record here, I believe that If Anything Happens I Love You will win as I have heard talk about it in non-Oscar contexts and it is a tearjerker, which will be really tempting to vote for especially in this category.

    Nominees:

    If Anything Happens I Love You

    Burrow

    Genius Loci

    Opera

    Yes-People

    Pick: If Anything Happens I Love You

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    This one is probably the most wide-open of the categories and there definitely is no clear frontrunner. However, since I chose a Netflix-distributed short in the previous two categories I don’t think I can choose A Love Song for Latasha here since the Academy still does have a bias against streaming films. Granted, Netflix has had a lot of past success in these categories but I don’t see them sweeping these categories when films like Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom were left out of the Best Picture fold partly since it was a Netflix film (my theory). Anyway, that leaves the other three films with the greatest odds of winning this: A Concerto is a Conversation, Colette, and Hunger Ward. I am going to go with A Concerto is a Conversation since Colette doesn’t seem to have enough timeliness or lightness to win here and while Hunger Ward tackles an important subject, its probably too long as it is 40 minutes while the other films are closer to 20. That is if the Academy members actually watch the films because I don’t believe that the majority of the Academy chooses to vote in the shorts categories. Quick note: Do Not Split is about the protests in Hong Kong and I am barely mentioning it because I don’t believe that the Academy wants to anger China when it is so important to Hollywood market.

    Nominees:

    A Conversation is a Conversation

    A Love Song for Latasha

    Colette

    Hunger Ward

    Do Not Split

    Pick: A Concerto is a Conversation