Awards Insights

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  • Golden Globes Reveal Their Nominations: ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Belfast’ Lead With 7 Each

    Golden Globes Reveal Their Nominations: ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Belfast’ Lead With 7 Each

    Though they won’t be televised this season, the Golden Globes released their nominations this morning and there are some interesting inclusions and exclusions. A stat that I want to mention is that no Best Picture winner in at least the last 10 years has won the award without being at least nominated for a Picture award, Best Director, and Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes. This year, two films fit that criteria: The Power of the Dog and Belfast. Both CODA and The Lost Daughter seem to benefit from today’s nominations as they both received two nods a piece.

    Best Motion Picture, Drama

    “Belfast”

    “CODA”

    “Dune”

    “King Richard”

    “The Power of the Dog”

    Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

    “Cyrano”

    “Don’t Look Up”

    “Licorice Pizza”

    “Tick, Tick … Boom!”

    “West Side Story”

    Best Director, Motion Picture

    Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”

    Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”

    Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Lost Daughter”

    Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”

    Denis Villeneuve, “Dune”

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

    Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

    Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”

    Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”

    Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”

    Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

    Marion Cotillard, “Annette”

    Alana Haim, “Licorice Pizza”

    Jennifer Lawrence, “Don’t Look Up”

    Emma Stone, “Cruella”

    Rachel Zegler, “West Side Story”

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

    Caitriona Balfe, “Belfast”

    Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”

    Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”

    Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”

    Ruth Negga, “Passing”

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

    Mahershala Ali, “Swan Song”

    Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”

    Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”

    Will Smith, “King Richard”

    Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

    Leonardo DiCaprio, “Don’t Look Up”

    Peter Dinklage, “Cyrano”

    Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!”

    Cooper Hoffman, “Licorice Pizza”

    Anthony Ramos, “In the Heights”

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

    Ben Affleck, “The Tender Bar”

    Jamie Dornan, “Belfast”

    Ciaran Hinds, “Belfast”

    Troy Kotsur, “CODA”

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”

    Best Screenplay, Motion Picture

    Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”

    Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”

    Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”

    Adam McKay, “Don’t Look Up

    Aaron Sorkin, “Being the Ricardos

    Best Original Score, Motion Picture

    Alexandre Desplat, “The French Dispatch”

    Germaine Franco, “Encanto”

    Jonny Greenwood, “The Power of the Dog”

    Alberto Iglesias, “Parallel Mothers”

    Hans Zimmer, “Dune”

    Best Original Song, Motion Picture

    “Be Alive,” “King Richard”

    “Dos Oruguitas,” “Encanto”

    “Down to Joy,” “Belfast”

    “Here I Am [Singing My Way Home],” “Respect”

    “No Time to Die,” “No Time to Die”

    Best Motion Picture, Animated

    “Encanto”

    “Flee”

    “Luca”

    “My Sunny Maad”

    “Raya and the Last Dragon”

    Best Motion Picture, Non-English Language

    “Compartment No. 6”

    “Drive My Car”

    “The Hand of God”

    “A Hero”

    “Parallel Mothers”

    Source: New York Times

  • AFI Top 10 is Released: The Best Picture Lineup Begins to Take Shape

    AFI Top 10 is Released: The Best Picture Lineup Begins to Take Shape

    Considering how early, the AFI awards occur in the season, their picks are ridiculously predictive. I personally think 7-8 films from the lineup below will be nominated (the misses being CODA and Tick, Tick…Boom).

    Anyway, here are their picks.

    AFI Movies of the Year

    • “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
    • “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
    • “Dune” (Warner Bros.)
    • “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
    • “Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
    • “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
    • “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
    • “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix)
    • “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (Apple Original Films/A24)
    • “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)

    AFI Television Programs of the Year

    • “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    • “Maid” (Netflix)
    • “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)
    • “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
    • “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV Plus)
    • “Succession” (HBO)
    • “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)
    • “The Underground Railroad” (Prime Video)
    • “WandaVision” (Disney Plus)
    • “The White Lotus” (HBO)

    AFI Special Award

    • “Belfast” (Focus Features)
    • “Squid Game” (Netflix)
    • “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Searchlight Pictures)

    The AFI Awards will take place on Jan. 7 in Los Angeles.

    In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

    • 2021 – 6 of the 8 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
    • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
    • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
    • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
    • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
    • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

    (Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2020 and 2019, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

    Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

    • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
    • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
    • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
    • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
    • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
    • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
    • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
    • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
    • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

    So something like The Lost Daughter, which didn’t receive a NBR or AFI pick, will need a nod at at least one of these major awards bodies if it wants a chance at making it in to BP.

  • ‘Licorice Pizza’ Wins Big and ‘The Power of the Dog’ Misses at NBR

    ‘Licorice Pizza’ Wins Big and ‘The Power of the Dog’ Misses at NBR

    The first major precursor of the season just announced its picks. For years, the National Board of Review (NBR) awards have marked the beginning of Oscar season and they continued that with today’s announcement. One startling omission was Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, which many predicted to win here. It was not named as one of the top 10 films which is something that forces me to remove it from its place as the Best Picture favorite. It is absolutely still getting nominated, it just may not have the kind of support to get the haul I was predicting it to get. Licorice Pizza, on the other hand, gains in standing as its now both one of the most critically-acclaimed films of the year (90 Metascore) and has the first major precursor under its belt. Of course, it’s important to mention that none of the NBR’s Best Film winners in the last ten years except for Green Book ended up winning Picture, but Paul Thomas Anderson’s film gets a boost nonetheless.

    In the last 10 years an average of just over 5 films picked by the NBR went on to become Best Picture nominees. With the expanded field of 10 BP nominees this year I am predicting that around six of this year’s NBR picks will end up getting nominated for Best Picture.

    2011 — 4/9
    2012 — 7/9
    2013 — 5/9
    2014 — 4/8
    2015 — 5/8
    2016 — 7/9
    2017 — 6/9 (The Shape of Water was not picked by the NBR)
    2018 — 4/8
    2019 — 6/9 (Parasite won Best Foreign Language Film)
    2020 — 5/8

    Also, in the last 10 years every eventual Best Picture winner except for The Shape of Water in 2017 was a member of the NBR’s Top 10 Films, which makes it seem very likely that the eventual Best Picture winner from this year will one of the 10 films chosen by the NBR.

    Also, this is slightly irrelevant but I hope the Tragedy of Macbeth winning for Best Cinematography becomes a trend as the camerawork in that film (just from the trailer) epitomizes stunning.

    So without further ado, here are the picks from the NBR.

    Best Film: LICORICE PIZZA

    Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA

    Best Actor: Will Smith, KING RICHARD

    Best Actress: Rachel Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY

    Best Supporting Actor: Ciarán Hinds, BELFAST

    Best Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD

    Best Original Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, A HERO

    Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

    Breakthrough Performance: Alana Haim & Cooper Hoffman, LICORICE PIZZA

    Best Directorial Debut: Michael Sarnoski, PIG

    Best Animated Feature: ENCANTO

    Best Foreign Language Film: A HERO

    Best Documentary: SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)

    Best Ensemble: THE HARDER THEY FALL

    Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

    NBR Freedom of Expression Award: FLEE

    Top Films (in alphabetical order)
    Belfast
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    King Richard
    The Last Duel
    Nightmare Alley
    Red Rocket
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    West Side Story

    Top 5 Foreign Language Films (in alphabetical order)
    Benedetta
    Lamb
    Lingui, The Sacred Bonds
    Titane
    The Worst Person in the World

    Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)
    Ascension
    Attica
    Flee
    The Rescue
    Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain

    Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)
    The Card Counter
    C’mon C’mon
    CODA
    The Green Knight
    Holler
    Jockey
    Old Henry
    Pig
    Shiva Baby
    The Souvenir Part II

    Source: Yahoo

  • 2022 Oscars: Late October Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late October Predictions

    The Power of the Dog and Belfast are still the top contenders after their festival runs and sit significantly higher on this list than the others. That will definitely change as time goes on but both of these films will likely continue to be top 4 Best Picture contenders throughout the season.

    Now for the rest of the pack. Even though Dune may not have the critical reception of something like Mad Max Fury Road or Gravity (both of these films had Metascores over 90 while Dune is currently sitting at a 74), there is palpable passion for the film (Guillermo del Toro, Chloe Zhao, and Christopher Nolan have all sung the film’s praises) and the return of the cerebral blockbuster seems to be something that most in the industry have warmly received. I am pretty confident of it getting into Picture (but I highly doubt it has a chance of winning) so it takes the third slot.

    Bradley Cooper’s 2021 late-breakers Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza take the next two positions and I think Cooper could possibly be double-nominated and maybe even win his first Oscar. Trailers recently dropped for both of these films and Licorice Pizza looks like a major diversion from Paul Thomas Anderson’s more recent work. It looks to be an Almost Famous-lite coming-of-age story that returns to PTA’s San Fernando Valley roots. That’s the kind of film that will likely be more accessible to the Academy than some of the auteur’s past work and if he pulls it off, which is likely for PTA, the 8-time Oscar nominee could possibly receive his first Oscar (Even though he could win for Picture it’s more likely that he wins it for Original Screenplay). Del Toro’s last film was the Best Picture winner The Shape of Water so Nightmare Alley with Cate Blanchett, Bradley Cooper, Rooney Mara, Toni Colette, and Willem Dafoe is highly anticipated. My concern with both Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza is that they really could have benefited from a festival run. I highly doubt that a film that didn’t premiere at any of the fall festivals will end up winning Picture as the eventual Picture winner usually premieres at a fall festival and then gradually builds momentum that ends up in the film receiving the most coveted golden statue. Even with the season being extended to March, I don’t see either Nightmare Alley or Licorice Pizza being able to win this but if they deliver, they will be nominated.

    I get more skeptical about Don’t Look Up as time goes on but the pedigree it boasts is just much too hard to resist. It’s hard to fathom that a movie with Leo, JLaw, and Meryl in significant roles will not get a Best Picture nomination. If it gets at least a 70 Metascore it’s in undoubtedly. My confidence in West Side Story is also waning but I still have a lot of trust in Spielberg’s popularity in the industry and if the movie is at least mostly positively-received it should probably be able to get into Picture.

    King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and The Lost Daughter round out the last three slots. All three made splashes at festivals and could probably ride those positive notices to BP noms. King Richard is poised to be the Ford v Ferrari of this season. A sports film that audiences might really love that features uniformally great performances from its cast. Both Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis are likely to receive nods. The Tragedy of Macbeth is led by two of the most respected actors in the industry in Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand and with an 89 Metascore in tow I don’t see how the Academy can deny this film a BP nomination even if it’s not really their cup of tea. It’s probably the Mank or Phantom Thread of this year. Both of those films received nominations in Director so watch out for Joel Coen in that category as it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Director branch reward him for his auteur vision.

    The Gotham Awards released their nominations this month and of the films nominated for Best Feature, only Passing and The Lost Daughter look like they have a chance at above-the-line Oscar nominations. Both films are Netflix projects directed by actresses-turned-directors and are based on two highly acclaimed novels. In terms of receiving Oscar nominations, I’m going to give the edge to The Lost Daughter as I understand that it’s more accessible than Hall’s film and since I think it could be like The Father in that it’s a psychological thriller that audiences have a strong emotional response to.

    Anyway, here are my predictions for this month:

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

    The Lost Daughter (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Spencer, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, Passing, Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon, CODA, tick, tick…Boom!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Could Jump In: Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci/The Last Duel, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter, Julia Ducournau – Titane, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    Could Jump In: Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (This seems more like a Globes nomination than an Oscar one but I’m not confident about placing anyone else here)

    Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Caitrona Balfe – Belfast

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Glenn Close – Swan Song

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, Mass, Spencer, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    The Lost Daughter

    Nightmare Alley

    Passing

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: CODA, Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, The Humans, tick, tick…Boom!, West Side Story

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya the Last Dragon, Sing 2, Ron’s Gone Wrong, The Summit of the Gods, Cryptozoo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Belfast, Being the Ricardos, The Power of the Dog, The Last Duel, Cyrano, Spencer, Last Night in Soho, Licorice Pizza

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (From the trailers alone, this or Spencer is what I want to win here, though both are not too likely. I love the German Expressionism chiaroscuro used here. It’s stunning)

    The Power of the Dog

    Belfast

    Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Spencer (this looks so beautiful, Claire Mathon is so underrated), The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano, C’mon C’mon, Passing, The Green Knight

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    Being the Ricardos

    Cruella

    Spencer

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Cyrano, House of Gucci, West Side Story

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Being the Ricardos, The Matrix Resurrections, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Being the Ricardos

    Dune

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    House of Gucci

    Cruella

    Could Jump In: The Suicide Squad, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, King Richard, The French Dispatch

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Belfast

    No Time to Die

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Could Jump In: tick, tick…Boom, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Eternals, King Richard, The Last Duel, A Quiet Place Part II

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    Could Jump In: Godzilla vs. Kong, Free Guy, Nightmare Alley, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow, The Green Knight

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune (With the hype this Hans Zimmer score had, the final product is slightly underwhelming but until I hear more of the others I don’t know what can beat it)

    The Power of the Dog (I liked this, I don’t know if it’s a winning score but it sounds great)

    Spencer (If this film ends up getting a Best Picture nomination, I can see this score winning)

    The French Dispatch (Desplat was nominated for Isle of Dogs, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and The Grand Budapest Hotel and I don’t think this is a dip in quality so I think he can get in)

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Parallel Mothers, Nightmare Alley, Luca, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    King Richard

    No Time to Die

    Belfast

    Encanto

    The Rescue

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, Four Good Days, Annette, CODA, The Harder They Fall, Respect, Dear Evan Hansen, The Automat, Don’t Look Up

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    The Worst Person in the World

    The Hand of God

    A Hero

    Flee

    I’m Your Man

    Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, Titane, Drive My Car, Leave No Traces, Prayers for the Stolen, Unclenching the Fists, Lamb

  • The Oscars Need to Reform the International Feature Category

    The Oscars Need to Reform the International Feature Category

    With the news on Tuesday that the Spanish Film Academy has picked the Javier Bardem-led comedy “The Good Boss” instead of Oscar-winner Pedro Almodovar’s “Parallel Mothers” as its submission for the Best International Feature Oscar, the need for the Academy to reform its system for this category is very apparent.

    If you are unaware about the Academy’s current rules for this category, here are three important points:

    1. Each country can only submit one film. Meaning that each year, a country’s representative film academy has to choose which film they want to represent them at this year’s Oscars.
    2. The film has to be non-American and must be mostly in a language other than English. While prior to the 2006 Academy Awards, a foreign country had to submit a film that was in one of their official languages, that rule is (thankfully) no longer in place and Canada submitted the Hindi-language film Water at the 2007 Oscars as a result of this shift in policy. As a result of the films having to be non-American, films that were primarily in a non-English language like Apocalypto and last year’s Minari were ineligible from competing in this category since they were both American-produced features.
    3. The director accepts the award on behalf of their producing country’s film academy. The filmmakers themselves do not receive Oscars, their countries do.

     

    The idea that a country can only submit one film for this category is ludicrous as it defeats the point of having this category. This rule is archaic and needs to be amended. In an era like the 1950s where the cinema of countries like France and Italy dominated the American cinephile’s perception of what international cinema was, it makes some sense that each country could only submit one film as the Academy members of the time likely had a limited knowledge and appreciation of cinema outside of the canon of the Western world. Of the 32 International Feature awards given from the late 40s through the 70s, only five were given to non-European countries (three were for Japan, likely due to the fact that the United States was highly involved in the politics of Japan at the time after World War II and thus the Americans had an especially strong access to Japanese art. The two other films were in French and directed by men who worked in France but produced by African countries specifically the Ivory Coast and Algeria.) But in an era where 5 of the last 10 winners in this category were from non-European countries (and when a Korean film can win Best Picture), this system has become obsolete. The fact that only one film can be submitted for each country is quite mind-boggling in today’s world where the Academy has a diverse array of members and access to the art of other countries has been amplified extensively.

    A country’s film Academy shouldn’t have to submit films at all and the wealth of choices that international cinema has to offer should not be restricted by the politics of a small closed off voting body. There has been speculation that Spain did not submit Parallel Mothers (whose director and lead actress are Oscar winners) as the film is critical of the Spanish government. While this may not be the reason why the Spanish Film Academy did not choose Almodovar’s film, this situation wouldn’t be an outlier. Take filmmaker Jafar Panahi, one of the most celebrated Middle Eastern filmmakers of the 21st century. None of his films have ever been selected by the Iranian Film Academy as Panahi is a vocal critic of the Iranian government and that is apparent in his work. In 2010, Panahi was arrested and placed under house arrest “for propaganda against the Islamic republic” as he was attempting to make a documentary about the 2009 election of Mahmoud Ahmedinejad which he believed to be fraudulent. He was subsequently banned from making films for 20 years. Panahi’s case is just a symptom of a larger problem. Oppressive countries around the world often suppress art that doesn’t conform to their leaders’ values and beliefs and the Academy is essentially supporting this suppression by creating a system that keeps Academy members from choosing fantastic cinema that may challenge the values of their home country. If the Oscars truly want to reflect the best of film today, they should not restrict International film to a small pool of cinema. With this system, the Academy will actually be able to award the best of International cinema (of course the bias of the Academy towards certain types of films will always be a factor but with the greater diversification of Academy membership, let’s hope that issue becomes less and less prevalent) without the whims of each country’s respective film academies getting in the way.

    The other problem with this category is that ridiculously the award is not given to the directors and/or producers of the films but instead to the films’ country. Federico Fellini one of the most celebrated filmmakers to walk the earth has 0 competitive Oscars to his name even though four of his films won in this category. While the directors do accept the award at the ceremony they are actually accepting it on behalf of the country that submitted their film. Ingmar Bergman would have 3 Oscars and Vittorio De Sica would have four (if Special Awards are taken into account) if filmmakers were given their due like they are at other prestigious awards, such as the BAFTAs. Essentially, some of the best directors who have ever lived never received Oscars due to a rule that doesn’t need to have been in place (why couldn’t the Oscar be awarded to both the country and the filmmaker?)

    Every year, the Academy seems to tease some sort of major change (like the addition of a Best Popular Film category a few years ago) but this is an advance the Academy actually needs to act upon if we want to get international film and filmmakers to be treated fairly by the Academy. Of course the fact that the Oscars, awards that are supposed to honor the best of cinema no matter where it comes from, have to have an International Feature award in the first place is an inherently faulty notion but the time when the Academy moves away from being so aggressively American-centric is far down the line. But before that time (which will sadly probably never come to fruition) arrives, it wouldn’t be asking for too much for the Academy to amend what is easily its most controversial category.

  • 2022 Oscars: Late September Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late September Oscar Predictions

    We finally have sure things in this race. The Power of the Dog and Belfast are locks for Best Picture nominations after their success at TIFF. And Dune, which did not meet the high expectations for it in critics’ ratings (its 76 Metascore is pretty good but not fantastic) but it seems to be making up for that in box office success and popular acclaim. However, while the film is doing well overseas, if it ends up flopping stateside it will most likely end up like Blade Runner 2049: an underseen Villenueve gem that is limited to just tech nominations. Still, I doubt that it will flop too badly as it has had a strong performance internationally.

    Nightmare Alley’s trailer was released and this kind of noir-y psychological thriller needs stellar reviews to get into Best Picture. If it doesn’t have popular acclaim and/or critical acclaim (at least 85+ Metascore), then it might miss. But Guillermo del Toro and that all-star cast give me confidence to place it as high as I have it.

    The Tragedy of Macbeth premiered at New York around a week ago and has received stellar reviews from many critics (it has a 90 Metascore right now). Even though many say that it might not be exactly on the Academy’s wavelength, Denzel Washington, and Frances McDormand, and Joel Coen are too beloved in the industry and it’s hard for me to believe that a film with those three and fantastic reviews will not get into Picture.

    The trailer for Licorice Pizza came out (officially) yesterday and it looks like Paul Thomas Anderson’s most accessible film yet. PTA has still never won an Oscar even though he’s been nominated eight time and this coming-of-age period dramedy could be his ticket to finally getting some Oscar love.

    The most important section of fall festival season has come to a close and other than films that have been previously-mentioned, films like King Richard, Spencer, Parallel Mothers, and The Lost Daughter have definitely made an impact. Of these four films, King Richard has the best chance of a Best Picture nominations and looks to be the kind of crowdpleaser that receives support from both general audiences and critics. Spencer and Parallel Mothers also have received acclaim and I project both to receive Best Actress nominations (for Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz respectively). Both have 85 Metascores but have different struggles that could be obstacles on their way to the Oscars. Spencer may be too artsy and inaccessible for the Academy while Parallel Mothers, the more accessible film, might not be able to transcend its status as an International Feature and get the eyeballs it needs to be nominated. The Lost Daughter has an 88 Metascore and a pretty well-known cast yet the subject matter may be too edgy for the Academy at large, though I do think it can get an Adapted Screenplay nom.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    Spencer (NEON)

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Being the Ricardos, Parallel Mothers, The French Dispatch, Passing, The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, C’mon C’mon, The Humans, CODA, A Hero, Tick, Tick…Boom!, Eternals, Mass, The Tender Bar

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Leonardo Dicaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom!, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year she’s in), Lady Gaga – House of Gucci, Caitrona Balfe – Belfast, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Judi Dench – Belfast (Or Caitrona Balfe if she is slotted in here)

    Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley (Or Cate Blanchett if she is slotted in here)

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Parallel Mothers, Being the Ricardos, Spencer, C’mon C’mon, Mass, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The Lost Daughter

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Passing, The Tragedy of Macbeth, CODA, The Humans, The Tender Bar, West Side Story, The Last Duel

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, Where is Anne Frank?, Sing 2, Vivo, Cryptozoo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, Spencer, Passing, The Power of the Dog

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Passing

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Spencer

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (will be here if it’s released this year), Cruella, Respect, West Side Story, House of Gucci

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: King Richard, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, Eternals, Being the Ricardos

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    House of Gucci

    Cruella

    Spencer

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), The Suicide Squad, Respect, King Richard, The French Dispatch

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Eternals

    West Side Story

    No Time to Die

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Quiet Place Part II, The Power of the Dog, The Matrix: Resurrections

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Matrix: Resurrections

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Tomorrow War

    Could Jump In: Shang-Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Godzilla vs Kong, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow

    Hans Zimmer (Dune and No Time to Die; Zimmer has a couple other scores from this year but hopefully nobody is seriously considering The Boss Baby 2 in this category), Alexandre Desplat Nightmare Alley and The French Dispatch), and Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog and Spencer; Greenwood also has Licorice Pizza) all have at least two scores in contention this year. I am pretty sure at least one of them will be double-nominated

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    Spencer

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Parallel Mothers, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Luca, Eternals

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    King Richard

    Encanto

    Respect

    Annette

    Could Jump In: Belfast, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, The Starling, The Automat

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Parallel Mothers

    A Hero

    The Hand of God

    The Worst Person in the World

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Happening or Petite Maman (I don’t see France choosing Titane when these two are available but they might), Compartment No. 6, I’m Your Man, Drive My Car

  • Emmys 2021: ‘The Crown’ Sweeps and ‘Ted Lasso’ and ‘The Queen’s Gambit Win Big

    Emmys 2021: ‘The Crown’ Sweeps and ‘Ted Lasso’ and ‘The Queen’s Gambit Win Big

    Here are the winners from the 2021 Primetime Emmys.

    Outstanding Drama Series

    The Boys (Amazon Prime Video)
    Bridgerton (Netflix)
    [WINNER] The Crown (Netflix)
    The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
    Lovecraft Country (HBO)
    The Mandalorian (Disney+)
    Pose (FX)
    This Is Us (NBC)

    Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series

    Bridgerton (Julie Ann Robinson) – “Diamond Of The First Water” (Netflix)
    The Crown (Benjamin Caron) – “Fairytale” (Netflix)
    [WINNER] The Crown (Jessica Hobbs) – “War” (Netflix)
    The Handmaid’s Tale (Liz Garbus) – “Wilderness” (Hulu)
    The Mandalorian (Jon Favreau) – “Chapter 9: The Marshal” (Disney+)
    Pose (Steven Canals) – “Series Finale” (FX)

    Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series

    The Boys (Rebecca Sonnenshine) – “What I Know” (Amazon Prime Video)
    [WINNER] The Crown (Peter Morgan) – “War” (Netflix)
    The Handmaid’s Tale (Yahlin Chang) – “Home” (Hulu)
    Lovecraft Country (Misha Green) – “Sundown” (HBO)
    The Mandalorian (Dave Filoni) – “Chapter 13: The Jedi” (Disney+)
    The Mandalorian (Jon Favreau) – “Chapter 16: The Rescue” (Disney+)
    Pose (Steven Canals, Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, Our Lady J) – “Series Finale” (FX)

    Outstanding Comedy Series

    black-ish (ABC)
    Cobra Kai (Netflix)
    Emily in Paris (Netflix)
    Hacks (HBO Max)
    The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
    The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
    Pen15 (Hulu)
    [WINNER] Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) 

    Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series

    B-Positive (James Burrows) – “Pilot” (CBS)
    The Flight Attendant (Susanna Fogel) – “In Case Of Emergency” (HBO Max)
    [WINNER] Hacks (Lucia Aniello) – “There Is No Line (Pilot)” (HBO Max)
    Mom (James Widdoes) – “”Scooby-Doo Checks And Salisbury Steak” (CBS)
    Ted Lasso (Zach Braff) – “”Biscuits” (Apple TV+)
    Ted Lasso (MJ Delaney) – “The Hope That Kills You” (Apple TV+)
    Ted Lasso (Declan Lowney) – “Make Rebecca Great Again” (Apple TV+)

    Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series

    The Flight Attendant (Steve Yockey) – “In Case Of Emergency” (HBO Max)
    Girls5Eva (Meredith Scardino) – “Pilot” (Peacock)
    [WINNER] Hacks (Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky) – “There Is No Line (Pilot)” (HBO Max)
    Pen15 (Maya Erskine) – “Play” (Hulu)
    Ted Lasso (Jason Sudeikis, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly) – “Make Rebecca Great Again” (Apple TV+)
    Ted Lasso (Jason Sudeikis, Bill Lawrence, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly) – “Pilot” (Apple TV+)

    Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

    I May Destroy You (HBO)
    Mare of Easttown (HBO)
    [WINNER] The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
    The Underground Railroad (Amazon Prime Video)
    WandaVision (Disney Plus)

    Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

    Hamilton (Thomas Kail) – Disney+
    I May Destroy You (Michaela Coel and Sam Miller) – “Ego Death” – HBO
    I May Destroy You (Sam Miller) – “Eyes Eyes Eyes Eyes” – HBO
    Mare of Easttown (Craig Zobel) – HBO
    [WINNER] The Queen’s Gambit (Scott Frank) – Netflix
    The Underground Railroad (Barry Jenkins) – Amazon Prime Video
    WandaVision (Matt Shakman) – Disney+

    Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

    [WINNER] I May Destroy You (Michaela Coel) – HBO
    Mare of Easttown (Brad Ingelsby) – HBO
    The Queen’s Gambit (Scott Frank) – Netflix
    WandaVision (Chuck Hayward and Peter Cameron) – “All-New Halloween Spooktacular!” – Disney+
    WandaVision (Jac Shaeffer) – “Filmed Before a Live Studio Audience” – Disney+
    WandaVision (Laura Donney) – “Previously On” – Disney+

    Lead Actor in a Drama Series

    Sterling K. Brown for This Is Us (NBC)
    Jonathan Majors for Lovecraft Country (HBO)
    [WINNER] Josh O’Connor for The Crown (Netflix)
    Regé-Jean Page for Bridgerton (Netflix)
    Billy Porter for Pose (FX)
    Matthew Rhys for Perry Mason (HBO)

    Lead Actress in a Drama Series

    Uzo Aduba for In Treatment (HBO)
    [WINNER] Olivia Colman for The Crown (Netflix)
    Emma Corrin for The Crown (Netflix)
    Elisabeth Moss for The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
    Mj Rodriguez for Pose (FX)
    Jurnee Smollett for Lovecraft Country (HBO)

    Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

    Anthony Anderson for black-ish (ABC)
    Michael Douglas for The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
    William H. Macy for Shameless (Showtime)
    [WINNER] Jason Sudeikis for Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
    Kenan Thompson for Kenan (NBC)

    Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

    Aidy Bryant for Shrill (Hulu)
    Kaley Cuoco for The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
    Allison Janney for Mom (CBS)
    Tracee Ellis Ross for black-ish (ABC)
    [WINNER] Jean Smart for Hacks (HBO Max)

    Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

    Paul Bettany for WandaVision (Disney+)
    Hugh Grant for The Undoing (HBO)
    [WINNER] Ewan McGregor for Halston (Netflix)
    Lin-Manuel Miranda for Hamilton (Disney+)
    Leslie Odom Jr. for Hamilton (Disney+)

    Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

    Michaela Coel for I May Destroy You (HBO)
    Cynthia Erivo for Genius: Aretha (NatGeo)
    Elizabeth Olsen for WandaVision (Disne+)
    Anya Taylor-Joy for The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
    [WINNER] Kate Winslet for Mare of Easttown (HBO)

    Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    Giancarlo Esposito for The Mandalorian (Disney+)
    O-T Fagbenie for The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
    John Lithgow for Perry Mason (HBO)
    [WINNER] Tobias Menzies for The Crown (Netflix)
    Max Minghella for The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
    Chris Sullivan for This Is Us (NBC)
    Bradley Whitford for The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
    Michael K. Williams for Lovecraft Country (HBO)

    Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    [WINNER] Gillian Anderson for The Crown (Netflix)
    Helena Bonham Carter for The Crown (Netflix)
    Madeline Brewer for The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
    Ann Dowd for The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
    Aunjanue Ellis for Lovecraft Country (HBO)
    Emerald Fennell for The Crown (Netflix)
    Yvonne Strahovski for The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
    Samira Wiley for The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

    Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks)
    [WINNER] Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
    Brendan Hunt (Ted Lasso)
    Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)
    Paul Reiser (The Kominsky Method)
    Jeremy Swift (Ted Lasso)
    Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live)
    Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)

    Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live)
    Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
    Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
    Rosie Perez (The Flight Attendant)
    Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)
    Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
    [WINNER] Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)

    Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

    Thomas Brodie Sangster (The Queen’s Gambit)
    Daveed Diggs (Hamilton)
    Paapa Essiedu (May Destroy You)
    Jonathan Groff (Hamilton”)
    [WINNER] Evan Peters (Mare Of Easttown)
    Anthony Ramos (Hamilton)

    Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

    Renée Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton)
    Kathryn Hahn (WandaVision)
    Moses Ingram (The Queen’s Gambit)
    [WINNER] Julianne Nicholson (Mare Of Easttown)
    Jean Smart (Mare Of Easttown)
    Phillipa Soo (Hamilton)

    Outstanding Competition Program

    The Amazing Race (CBS)
    Nailed It! (Netflix)
    [WINNER] RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1)
    Top Chef (Bravo)
    The Voice (NBC)

    Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

    A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO)
    [WINNER] Saturday Night Live (NBC)

    Outstanding Variety Talk Series

    Conan (TBS)
    The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
    Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
    [WINNER] Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
    The Last Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)

    Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

    8:46 – Dave Chappelle (Netflix)
    Bo Burnham – Inside (Netflix)
    David Byrne’s American Utopia (HBO)
    Friends: The Reunion (HBO Max)
    [WINNER] Hamilton (Disney+)
    A West Wing Special to Benefit When We All Vote (HBO Max)

    Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

    The 63rd Grammy Awards (CBS)
    Celebrating America – An Inauguration Special (PBS)
    [WINNER] Stephen Colbert’s Election Night 2020: Democracy’s Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020 (Showtime)
    The Oscars (ABC)
    The Pepsi Super Bowl LV Halftime Show with The Weeknd (CBS)

  • 2021 Emmy Predictions

    2021 Emmy Predictions

    DRAMA

    BEST DRAMA SERIES

    This category is almost a sure thing though if anything will come close to beating the behemoth that is The Crown it’ll be…actually nothing’s going to beat it here.

    PREDICTED WINNER: The Crown

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

    In the Comedy Lead Acting categories we see a lot of actors winning for repeat performances (I mean Julia Louis-Dreyfus won six years in a row for work on Veep), but that kind of repeat success is a lot less common in the Drama categories especially so many great new prestige dramas coming out every year. As a result, the last winner who had previously won for the same role was Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad in 2013 (he had previously won in 2010 for playing Walter White). I would look at the precursors but since Pose was a late breaker, Porter and O’Connor have never gone head to head so far. Billy Porter won in 2019 for Pose and while I think there’s a good chance the Academy will want to award him again, I’m going to give it to the first-time nominee O’Connor. The rule in this category is that you’ll win on either your first nomination for a role or on your last, which doesn’t really help as O’Connor has received his first nomination as Prince Charles and Porter is on his last nomination for Pray Tell.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Josh O’Connor – The Crown

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Billy Porter – Pose

    BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

    The Academy loves to award relative newcomers in this category and both Emma Corrin and MJ Rodriguez fit that bill. Corrin has been the frontrunner in this category for so long that I doubt Rodriguez could beat her. However, Pose’s last season was beloved my many and it seems like the Academy would want to award at least one of its stars. Colman and Corrin may also split votes and one of Rodriguez or Moss could jump in as a result. But I’m sticking with Corrin.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Emma Corrin – The Crown

    POTENTIAL UPSET: MJ Rodriguez – Pose, Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale, or Olivia Colman – The Crown

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

    RIP Michael K. Williams. Williams was already the frontrunner to win this category before his passing and I doubt that that frontrunner status will have changed. Maybe Tobias Menzies will get in if The Crown sweeps but I doubt it.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Michael K. Williams – Lovecraft Country

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Tobias Menzies – The Crown

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN DRAMA

    This is one of the more locked categories of the night and we will most likely see Gillian Anderson on stage Sunday night.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Gillian Anderson – The Crown

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST DRAMA DIRECTING

    Though episodes from The Handmaid’s Tale or The Mandalorian may seem like more obvious picks for directing, The “Fairytale” episode is the one with Corrin’s now-famous dancing scene as Diana. It’s also the episode that won for cinematography and that award often goes hand in hand with directing (even though those two categories haven’t coincided since 2017).

    PREDICTED WINNER: The Crown (Fairytale)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: The Handmaid’s Tale (The Wilderness), The Mandalorian (Chapter 9: The Marshal), or The Crown (War)

    BEST DRAMA WRITING

    Peter Morgan is one of the most respected writers in the industry especially when it comes to the royals and I doubt anyone else can beat him here.

    PREDICTED WINNER: The Crown (War)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Pose (Series Finale)

     

    COMEDY

    BEST COMEDY SERIES

    Ted Lasso has this one is in the bag, no question.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Ted Lasso

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

    Another lock, Sudeikis will win.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

    Jean Smart has had a fantastic year (She’s nominated Limited Series Supporting Actress as well for Mare of Easttown) and I don’t see her not taking this win. Kaley Cuoco maybe could surprise but I don’t really see that happening.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Jean Smart – Hacks

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

    This one’s difficult. There are quite a few standouts from the Ted Lasso cast so there’s a possibility they can split votes. But there’s also a good chance that both Kenan Thompson and Bowen Yang will split votes. I think Brett Goldstein will have the edge in the end but there are a few ways this category can go.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Kenan Thompson – Saturday Night Live or Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

    Even though Hacks has a lot more support in the industry than I think most people realize, Waddingham will not lose this.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Hannah Einbinder – Hacks

    BEST COMEDY DIRECTING

    The Ted Lasso episodes will definitely split votes here and I do think Hacks will have more support than The Flight Attendant.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Hacks (There is No Line)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: The Flight Attendant (In Case of Emergency), Ted Lasso (The Hope That Kills You), or Ted Lasso (Biscuits)

    BEST COMEDY WRITING

    The Emmys do prefer Pilot episodes in this category and while Make Rebecca Great Again might be the most popular episode of the show’s first season, I’m going to go with history and pick the pilot. Hacks also has a pilot episode in contention and it does seem like the kind of show that the writing branch would gravitate towards as it does deal with the process of writing comedy. However, Ted Lasso will most likely get very close to sweeping its nominations this year so I’m going to go with them.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Ted Lasso (Pilot)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Hacks (There is No Line) or Ted Lasso (Make Rebecca Great Again)

     

    LIMITED SERIES AND TV MOVIE

    BEST LIMITED SERIES

    This one seems pretty obvious based on The Queen’s Gambit’s success at the Creative Arts Emmys.

    PREDICTED WINNER: The Queen’s Gambit

    POTENTIAL UPSET: I May Destroy You (maybe?)

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    This is really between Kate Winslet and Anya Taylor-Joy. Taylor-Joy is the face of The Queen’s Gambit which had a massive haul at the Creative Arts Emmys cementing its immense support in the Academy. However, Winslet is one of the most beloved and acclaimed actresses of her generation and she gives one of the best performances of her career in Mare of Easttown and even though The Queen’s Gambit has so much support across the board, Winslet’s performance seems like one that actors especially will gravitate towards. But then again, The Queen’s Gambit could sweep…

    PREDICTED WINNER: Kate Winslet – Mare of Easttown

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Anya Taylor-Joy – The Queen’s Gambit

    BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    While The Undoing underperformed when it came to nominations, I think the Academy could give it to Hugh Grant here. I don’t see Wandavision getting two acting wins and since I have Hahn winning in Supporting Actress, I‘ve got to put either Grant, McGregor, or Odom Jr. here. I think Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom Jr. will split votes and McGregor’s Halston was underseen so that leaves Grant and while I’m not confident with him winning, I’ll just keep him in anyway.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Hugh Grant – The Undoing

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Paul Bettany – Wandavision, Ewan McGregor – Halston, or Leslie Odom Jr. – Hamilton

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    Though Hamilton has a lot of love in the Academy as shown by its nomination haul in these acting categories, I don’t think it’ll get any acting wins. I may be projecting my own bias into this but I think Hamilton fever may have died down a little bit. Daveed Diggs was my favorite performer in the cast yet I think Evan Peters will probably win this for his performance in Mare of Easttown

    PREDICTED WINNER: Evan Peters – Mare of Easttown

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Daveed Diggs – Hamilton

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    While I think Julianne Nicholson and Jean Smart’s performances are conventionally the kind of performances that the Academy likes to award, I also think that they will split votes and Kathryn Hahn will rise in the end. Still, I could easily see Nicholson winning this.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Kathryn Hahn – Wandavision

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Julianne Nicholson – Mare of Easttown or Jean Smart – Mare of Easttown

    BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE DIRECTING

    With the nine Creative Arts Emmys that The Queen’s Gambit won I really don’t see it losing directing as that award often goes to the show that has the most success in the techs. Though Barry Jenkins is easily the most respected director in the bunch, I don’t think enough people saw The Underground Railroad to give him a win here.

    PREDICTED WINNER: The Queen’s Gambit

    POTENTIAL UPSET: The Underground Railroad (it is Barry Jenkins after all)

    BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE WRITING

    The Queen’s Gambit has wide support and could take this easily but I don’t see I May Destroy You coming up empty-handed when it was easily one of the most-acclaimed shows of the season and this would be the easiest place for the Academy to award it.

    PREDICTED WINNER: I May Destroy You

    POTENTIAL UPSET: The Queen’s Gambit

     

    VARIETY

    BEST COMPETITION PROGRAM

    RuPaul’s Drag Race has won three years in a row and that streak shows no signs of stopping.

    PREDICTED WINNER: RuPaul’s Drag Race

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES

    While they could give an award for Conan’s last season after over 25 years on the air, I doubt they will diverge from awarding John Oliver

    PREDICTED WINNER: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Conan

    BEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES

    Saturday Night Live seems basically unbeatable here and even though it would be nice if A Black Lady Sketch Show was to prevail here that most likely won’t happen

    PREDICTED WINNER: Saturday Night Live

    POTENTIAL UPSET: A Black Lady Sketch Show

    BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED)

    I want Bo Burnham to win this for Inside and it definitely tapped into the zeitgeist when it released. Still, Hamilton received 11 nominations (including 7 acting nominations) to Inside’s 6. Hamilton obviously had support during the nominations period but it’s also true that Inside already won Best Writing for a Variety Special and Best Directing for a Variety Special. But it’s also true that Inside didn’t go up against Hamilton in either of those categories as Hamilton was nominated in Limited Series/TV Movie Directing. I’m running myself in circles at this point but I’m going to choose Hamilton because of those seven acting nominations but I’ll likely be kicking myself come Sunday night.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Hamilton

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Bo Burnham: Inside

    BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)

    PREDICTED WINNER: Celebrating America

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST VARIETY SERIES WRITING

    PREDICTED WINNER: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

     

    The 2021 Emmys take place on Sunday, Sept 19. at 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m. ET) on CBS.

  • ‘Belfast’ Wins the TIFF People’s Choice Award; ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Scarborough’ are Runner-Ups

    ‘Belfast’ Wins the TIFF People’s Choice Award; ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Scarborough’ are Runner-Ups

    Finally, we have some truly concrete frontrunners in this Oscar race! Belfast won the TIFF People’s Choice Award (which I predicted, not to brag) and The Power of the Dog (which I also predicted) and Scarborough were named as runner-ups.

    I had already declared The Power of the Dog to be locked for a Best Picture nomination after its performance in Venice and now Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical black-and-white picture Belfast joins that camp.

    Scarborough seems like another in the line of Canadian films that get a runner-up award at the Toronto-based festival (like Beans last year and Starbuck in 2011) so I doubt it gets much Oscar traction.

    Maybe you might not know why I am so confidently proclaiming Belfast and The Power of the Dog as major frontrunners this early in the race so I’ll give you some reasons

     

    Here are some TIFF stats to show you how predictive this festival is:

    The winner of the TIFF’s Grolsch People’s Choice Award has been nominated for Best Picture every year since 2012 and after.

    Every winner of the People’s Choice award since Silver Linings Playbook in 2012 has won at least one above-the-line Oscar (Picture, Acting, Directing, or Screenplay)

    3 out of the last 10 winners won Best Picture (12 Years a Slave, and Green Book, Nomadland).

    The festival also gives 2nd and 3rd place awards and in five times of the last 6 years at least one of those runner-ups go on to get a Best Picture nomination.

    In fact, in the past 10 years, 3 of those runner-ups (Argo, Spotlight, and Parasite) have gone on to win Best Picture.

    In 2019, 5 of the 9 eventual Best Picture nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 3 of the 8, in 2017, 5 of the 9, in 2016, 5 of the 9, and in 2015, 4 of the 8.

    Out of the last 10 Best Picture winners, 9 went to TIFF (the exception being 2014’s Birdman)

    Here’s a list of People’s Choice Award winners since 2012 that were Best Picture nominees:

    2012: Silver Linings Playbook (Runner-Up: Argo)

    2013: 12 Years a Slave (Runner-Up: Philomena)

    2014: The Imitation Game

    2015: Room (Runner-Up: Spotlight)

    2016: La La Land (Runner-Up: Lion)

    2017: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Runner-Up: Call Me By Your Name)

    2018: Green Book (Runner-Up: Roma)

    2019: Jojo Rabbit (Runner-Ups: Marriage Story and Parasite)

    2020: Nomadland

     

    As you can see Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and Scarborough join some very distinguished company. The former two will undoubtedly be in the top 3 of my predictions coming later this month and I would say that they are the only two films so far that can be declared locked.

     

  • Venice 2021: ‘Happening’, ‘The Power of the Dog’, ‘The Hand of God’ Win Big

    Venice 2021: ‘Happening’, ‘The Power of the Dog’, ‘The Hand of God’ Win Big

    VENICE FILM FESTIVAL JURY AWARDS

    Golden Lion for Best Film: “Happening,” Audrey Diwan
    Silver Lion (Grand Jury Prize): “The Hand of God,” Paolo Sorrentino
    Silver Lion for Best Director: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
    Coppa Volpi for Best Actor: John Arcilla, “On the Job: The Missing 8”
    Coppa Volpi for Best Actress: Penelopé Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”
    Award for Best Screenplay: “The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal
    Special Jury Prize: “Il Buco,” Michelangelo Frammartino
    Marcello Mastroianni Award for Best New Young Actor or Actress: Filippo Scotti, “The Hand of God”

    These are the main awards at the Venice Film Festival and as you can see the chances of films like ‘The Hand of God’, ‘The Power of the Dog’, ‘Parallel Mothers’, ‘The Lost Daughter’, and ‘Happening’ have increased as a result.

    Though I don’t see this year’s Golden Lion winner happening (pun fully intended) in Picture, four of the last five Golden Lion winners were nominated for Best Picture and two of those were Best Picture winners (Nomadland, The Shape of Water). It’s peak seems to be an International Feature nod (that is if the French academy even picks it which it might not). ‘The Hand of God’ seems like it is more accessible of a film and while it only has a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score right now the fact that it won what is essentially the second-place award at Venice shows that there definitely is support for it.

    Campion likely won the first award on her journey towards a Best Director win in March. The fact that ‘The Power of the Dog’ won a top-tier award at Venice continues to cement its place as the closest thing to a lock this race has.

    I’m also happy to report that Penelope Cruz increased her chances of receiving a Best Actress nomination with her win here. She was already in the Best Actress predictions of many but now her chances seem a lot more concrete. Almodovar’s film will probably not get any other nominations outside of Cruz and International Feature (though Original Screenplay and Director are not crazy possibilities).

    ‘The Lost Daughter’ winning in Screenplay is probably the biggest surprise of the awards. With this award, the film has definitely cemented its place as one of Netflix’s top four priorities this season. Netflix is poised to have 2-4 Best Picture nominees this year with the expanded slate so The Lost Daughter could be seeing a significant push. I definitely have it in my Adapted Screenplay nominations (I added it to my predictions after its Telluride premiere). The reviews are there (it has an 89 Metascore right now) so it could maybe hit Picture, Actress (Olivia Colman), and/or Supporting Actress (Jessie Buckley or Dakota Johnson) in addition to Screenplay if Netflix puts some focus on it.

    Here are the other awards from this year’s Venice Film Festival:

    Orizzonti Award for Best Film: “Pilgrims,” Laurynas Bareisa
    Orizzonti Award for Best Director: Eric Gravel, “A plein temps”
    Special Orizzonti Jury Prize: “El Gran Movimento,” Kiro Russo
    Orizzonti Award for Best Actor: Piseth Chhun, “White Building”
    Orizzonti Award for Best Actress: Laure Calamy, “A plein temps”
    Orizzonti Award for Best Screenplay: “107 Mothers,” Peter Kerekes, Ivan Ostrochovsky
    Orizzonti Award for Best Short Film: “Los Huesos,” Cristobal Leon, Joaquin Cocina

    Lion of the Future – “Luigi De Laurentiis” Award for a Debut Film: “Imaculat,” Monica Stan, George Chiper-Lillemark

    Grand Jury Prize for Best VR Work: “Goliath: Playing With Reality,” Barry Gene Murphy, May Abdalla
    Best VR Experience for Interactive Content: “Le bal de Paris de Blanca Li,” Blanca Li
    Best VR Story: “End of Night,” David Adler

    Source: The Wrap