No Major Surprises as the AFI Releases its Top 10 | Awards Insights
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No Major Surprises as the AFI Releases its Top 10

No Major Surprises as the AFI Releases its Top 10

AFI’s Top 10 Films of the year released earlier today and saw little in terms of surprises. The Color Purple missed again following its snub at NBR while Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction rebounded from its NBR miss with an inclusion here.

This AFI Awards marks the first year in a while without an AFI Special Award that is traditionally awarded to international films. This means no AFI love for Anatomy of a Fall or The Zone of Interest, both films that would have likely competed for that Special Award.

AFI MOTION PICTURES OF THE YEAR

AMERICAN FICTION

BARBIE

THE HOLDOVERS

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

MAESTRO

MAY DECEMBER

OPPENHEIMER

PAST LIVES

POOR THINGS

SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

AFI TELEVISION PROGRAMS OF THE YEAR

ABBOTT ELEMENTARY

THE BEAR

BEEF

JURY DUTY

THE LAST OF US

THE MORNING SHOW

ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING

POKER FACE

RESERVATION DOGS

SUCCESSION

Source: IndieWire

In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

  • 2023 – 8 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front)
  • 2022 – 9 of 10 (Missed: Drive My Car)
  • 2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
  • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
  • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
  • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
  • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
  • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

(Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2022, 2020 and 2019, The Banshees of Inisherin, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

  • All Quiet on The Western Front – Nominated at BAFTA (won as well)
  • Triangle of Sadness – Nominated at the Golden Globes
  • Drive My Car – none (won LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC trifecta though)
  • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
  • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
  • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
  • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
  • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
  • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
  • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
  • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
  • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
  • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
  • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

It seems likely that around 1 to 3 of the 10 films chosen by AFI will miss, and if three films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): May December, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and Maestro.