Awards Insights

Tag: oscar

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    To me, Dune, Belfast, and The Power of the Dog are basically locks here. They usually have at least one genre film here which Dune fits the mold of and the top 2 Best Picture contenders are usually here as well. In a close fourth place I have Don’t Look Up which has only received a nod from ACE but has the kind of editing that this branch likes (McKay’s last two films The Big Short and Vice were nominated here as well) and with this film having that genre element to it as well I’m pretty confident about its inclusion.

    As always, the question is about what will fill the last slot. Licorice Pizza seems like the obvious choice here since its hit all the precursors yet I think it could end up like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood which is another auteur period comedy film that was often described as a “hangout” film. The laid-back nature of the film forces me to caution against predicting in this category that usually awards fast-paced and/or genre films.

    If Licorice Pizza doesn’t get in there are three films in my eyes that can realistically take its place: West Side Story, No Time to Die, or King Richard. I’ll start with King Richard since part of me thinks this film has the best chance to fill this last spot since sports movies (Ford v Ferrari, I, Tonya, and Moneyball) usually do well in this category. However, the film’s star has been falling a little recently and if there was more focus on the tennis action I think it would be a more popular pick here.

    West Side Story was edited by frequent Spielberg collaborator Michael Kahn (with Sarah Broshar as well) and if Kahn is nominated for West Side Story, he will receive his ninth editing nod and will become the most-nominated editor ever. West Side Story’s lack of an ACE nomination, however, is concerning and even though a film can be nominated without an ACE nod (last year’s The Father, for example), it’s definitely not very common.

    No Time to Die received nominations from both BAFTA and ACE so it has definitely received support but both Skyfall and Casino Royale received those two nominations and ended up empty-handed when it came to Best Editing at the Oscars. I am going to go with King Richard for now but my mind may change as time goes on.

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune – CCA, ACE, BAFTA

    Belfast – CCA, ACE, BAFTA

    The Power of the Dog – CCA, ACE

    Don’t Look Up – ACE

    King Richard – ACE

    Could Jump In: Licorice Pizza – CCA, ACE, BAFTA, West Side Story – CCA, No Time to Die – BAFTA, ACE

    Dune, The Power of the Dog, and The Tragedy of Macbeth are seemingly locked here for me. Belfast follows close behind as it hit both CCA and ASC and is a black-and-white top 2 Best Picture contender. I am pretty confident about predicting those four films and that last slot for me is between West Side Story and Nightmare Alley.

    Nightmare Alley has hit all the major precursors and has pretty flashy cinematography, yet West Side Story is undeniably the bigger Best Picture contender. Its cinematography is also flashy and Janusz Kaminski is definitely a legend in the industry. However, one thing that gives me pause is that a lot of the fantastic shots from West Side Story are homages to the original and I don’t know if that’ll work to the film’s benefit (oh they recreated some great shots!) or to its detriment (oh they just copied the original!).

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune – CCA, ASC, BAFTA

    The Power of the Dog – CCA, ASC, BAFTA

    The Tragedy of Macbeth – CCA, ASC, BAFTA

    Belfast – CCA, ASC

    West Side Story – CCA

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley – CCA, ASC, BAFTA, Licorice Pizza

    Three films, Dune, Nightmare Alley, and Cruella have hit all the major precursors. This branch seems to like only period or sci-fi/fantasy films. Those three previously-mentioned films fit that criteria so I think they’re safe.

    Most people have House of Gucci in their predictions but the film spends most of its time in the 80s and 90s (though some of the film takes place in the 70s) and the Academy hasn’t been as keen on awarding films that are set during that time period. Still, it’s true that fashion is a major part of the film and that aspect could help it. It’s also true that The Devil Wears Prada, which was about the contemporary fashion industry, was also nominated in this category.

    Cyrano is the kind of period piece that gets love in this category and Joe Wright’s films especially do very well here (four of his previous films, Pride and Prejudice, Atonement, Anna Karenina, and Darkest Hour were all nominated here and Anna Karenina actually won). West Side Story is very close though I think the other films may just be too strong for it.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

    Nightmare Alley – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

    Cruella – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

    Cyrano – CDG, BAFTA

    House of Gucci – CCA, CDG

    Could Jump In: West Side Story – CCA, CDG, Coming 2 America – CDG, The French Dispatch – BAFTA

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    This year, this five seems to be one of the easiest to predict and though we could see some curveballs I am pretty confident about these films being the ones that will be mentioned on Tuesday morning.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Encanto – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    Flee – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA

    Luca – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines – CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    Raya and the Last Dragon – GG, CCA, Annie, PGA

    Could Jump In: Belle – Annie, Sing 2 – Annie, PGA

    To come up with the nominees in this category a random group from throughout the Academy chooses the shortlist and another random group votes on the eventual five nominees. Because of this process, we might end up seeing some interesting nominees like Bhutan’s Lunana: A Yak In the Classroom or more likely, Mexico’s Prayers for the Stolen.

    As a result of this nominating method, it is possible that we will see from very unique picks that will snub many of the year’s most acclaimed films. However, I think I am just going to it play it safe and pick the top five most rewarded films.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Drive My Car – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Flee – GG, CCA

    A Hero – GG, CCA

    The Worst Person in the World – CCA, BAFTA

    The Hand of God – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, Prayers For the Stolen, I’m Your Man, The Good Boss, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

    The most acclaimed documentary of the year is clearly Questlove’s Summer of Soul and many have mentioned it as the obvious frontrunner to win here. If the film does get nominated in this category, I think it has a very good chance at winning but I don’t think it will be nominated. The Academy has had a long-standing bias against docs that have consisted primarily of archival material and Summer of Soul fits this trend that led to the snubs of Apollo 11, Jane, and Won’t You Be My Neighbor. All of these films were also discussed as the frontrunners in their respective years and won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Documentary Feature.

    With Summer of Soul out, there are two films that I think are essentially locked for nominations here: Flee and The Rescue. They have both performed fantastically at the precursors and will probably be battling it out for the win unless Summer of Soul gets nominated. The last three slots here are a lot more uncertain. I have a feeling that both Ascension and Procession will make it in. That last slot, to me, is between Writing With Fire, The First Wave, Attica, Faya Dayi, and The Velvet Underground.

    The Velvet Underground is largely composed of archival footage, so that’s out. Attica reminds me of last year’s nominee Crip Camp as it discusses an event that happened around 50 years ago and the actions and reforms that have been taken after that event. However, last year was a weaker year than this year is and I’m not sure if the largely archival nature of Attica will be to its benefit. Faya Dayi is a dreamy ethnographic film and as a result, I think it will be too small to get in here. Totally Under Control, another film about the COVID-19 pandemic, was totally ignored last year and I doubt people want to vote for a film about something that likely still consumes a large part of their daily lives and, as a result, I don’t think The First Wave will be nominated. That leaves Writing With Fire which has social relevancy and is not composed of largely archival footage.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Flee – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

    The Rescue – CCA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

    Ascension – CCA, CEH, PGA

    Procession – CCA

    Writing With Fire – IDA, PGA

    Could Jump In: Summer of Soul – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA, Attica – CCA, The First Wave – PGA, Faya Dayi – IDA, CEH, The Velvet Underground – CEH

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, and Animated Short

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, and Animated Short

    There are some topics that the Academy highlights in these categories consistently but other than that, predictions in these categories are essentially throwing darts at a map.

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    The Long Goodbye

    When the Sun Sets

    Censor of Dreams

    Tala’vision

    You’re Dead, Helen

    Could Jump In: The Criminals, Frimas

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    The Queen of Basketball

    Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis

    Terror Contagion

    Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker

    Three Songs for Benazir

    Could Jump In: When We Were Bullies, Audible, Day of Rage

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    Robin Robin

    Us Again

    Namoo

    The Windshield Wiper

    Step Into the River

    Could Jump In: The Musician, Only a Child, Affairs of the Art

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    Dune will be winning this category and that assertion truly isn’t up for debate. The question is, who will the four other nominees be?

    Well, first off, I don’t see a world where Spider-Man: No Way Home doesn’t get a nomination here and though it missed both BAFTA and CCA, it’s far and away the biggest movie of the year and this is where those films get their flowers.

    Shang-Chi was also a big hit and its 4 VES nods are definitely a positive indicator of it getting embraced. The last two slots, to me, are between Godzilla vs. Kong, No Time to Die, and The Matrix Resurrections. I am going to go with the former two. Even though neither 2014’s Godzilla nor 2018’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters were nominated for Best Visual Effects, Kong: Skull Island was and the Academy’s apparent affinity for the gigantic ape (they gave Peter Jackson’s King Kong a win here) I think will aid it in getting a nod here. Yes, a Daniel Craig-Bond film has never received a Visual Effects nod, but in terms of visuals this film is more *ahem* explosive than previous Bond ventures and I think the wide acclaim the film has could benefit it here. I don’t think the reactions to The Matrix Resurrections were generally positive and the Academy likes to nominate films that are generally well-liked in this category (ignore last year’s slate due to a dearth of films that are usually seen here).

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune – CCA, BAFTA, VES (6x)

    Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES (3x)

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – CCA, VES (4x)

    Godzilla vs. Kong – VES (3x)

    No Time to Die – CCA, VES (1x), BAFTA

    Could Jump In: The Matrix Resurrections – CCA, VES (3x), BAFTA, Free Guy – BAFTA, Eternals – VES (1x)

    Dune, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, and West Side Story have all received nods from all four major precursors. I’m going to play it safe and keep them all in and with that there’s only one slot left. In the last five years, an average of three of the nominees in this category were Best Picture nominees and that’s why I am going to put CCA nominee Belfast here, though something like The Tragedy of Macbeth (which has the kind of production design that has historically been nodded to here), Cyrano, or The Power of the Dog.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Dune – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    Nightmare Alley – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    The French Dispatch – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    West Side Story – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    Belfast – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth – ADG, SDSA, Cyrano – SDSA, BAFTA, The Power of the Dog – SDSA

    Four films hit all four precursors and all four fit the mold of a nominee in this category. So the question is who will fill in that last slot?

    I think that last slot is between four films, The Suicide Squad, Cyrano, and West Side Story, and Coming 2 America. West Side Story doesn’t have the flashiest material in this category but it is, by far, the biggest Best Picture contender of the four. The Suicide Squad did well at the guild nominations picking up 3 nods, but the backlash to the 2016 Suicide Squad’s win in this category or their desire to award something else this time around could hurt it. Coming 2 America is a pretty strong contender but it was released in March and any buzz it had then has largely dissipated. Cyrano getting in here would be like its period piece relatives Emma. and Victoria & Abdul which both got in without receiving MUAH nods. I am going to go with The Suicide Squad since they have shown they like the kind of makeup and hairstyling seen in these kind of films, though this slot is truly a toss-up between these four films.

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

    Dune – CCA, MUAH (2x), BAFTA

    House of Gucci – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

    Cruella – CCA, MUAH (2x), BAFTA

    The Suicide Squad – MUAH (3x)

    Could Jump In: Cyrano – BAFTA, West Side Story – MUAH, Coming 2 America – MUAH (3x)

  • 2022 Oscars: Late January Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late January Predictions

    The time is almost upon us. These are my penultimate Oscar nomination predictions and I will be releasing one more set before nominations are announced on February 8th.

    Like I said in last month’s predictions, the top 8 films in the Best Picture race are The Power of the Dog, Belfast, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Dune, CODA, and King Richard and they are close to guarantees for Best Picture nominations. The question is what two films will fill the remaining spots? Once PGA releases their picks this question will hopefully become more clear but for now I think the two are going to come from this group of seven films: tick, tick…BOOM!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, House of Gucci, and Being the Ricardos.

    The Lost Daughter won big at the Gothams and seemed to do well in the BAFTA longlists. It’s lead is also the beloved Olivia Colman who is definitely win-competitive in Best Actress. It’s also a top three contender in Best Adapted Screenplay and Maggie Gylenhaal was nominated in Best Director at the Golden Globes. It’s also the only film nominated at the Indie Spirits that has a chance of getting a BP nom. However, it also has a 6.8 IMDb score and hasn’t gotten a Picture nom at CCA, GG, AFI, or NBR.

    House of Gucci received 13 appearances on the BAFTA longlists and got a SAG Ensemble nod to boot. However, usually only 3 to 4 of the SAG Ensemble nominees end up with Best Picture nominations and the other four nominees (Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, and King Richard) are basically locked for nods.

    Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at the Globes which catapults her to the top 2 in that category. Javier Bardem was also nominated at SAG, showing there is some industry support for Being the Ricardos. However, this film seems like it will just be an acting contender as it was tepidly received by both critics and audiences (6.6 IMDb score and 60 Metascore).

    Drive My Car is really a wildcard here. It wasn’t given Picture nods at CCA, SAG, AFI, or NBR, yet it is probably the most critically-acclaimed film of the year. It won Best Film at NYFCC, LAFCC, and NSFC, a feat only accomplished by five films: The Social Network, The Hurt Locker, L.A. Confidential, Schindler’s List, and Goodfellas. All of these films received Best Picture nominations and were top 2 contenders in their respective seasons. So this is a really special stat, yet I still think Drive My Car won’t get nominated unless it hits PGA. It’s a three hour long Japanese psychological drama so it’s really not the most widely-accessible of films so I need to see some proof of industry support (either at PGA or DGA) before I predict it for Picture. But of these seven films, it’s also probably the one with the most passion behind it so maybe I actually am going to predict it, for now.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG (Drama – win), CCA

    Belfast (Focus) – GG, CCA, SAG

    West Side Story (20th Century) – GG (Comedy/Musical – win), CCA

    Licorice Pizza (MGM) – GG, CCA

    Dune (Warner Bros.) – GG, CCA

    CODA (Apple+) – GG, CCA, SAG

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG

    King Richard (Warner Bros.) – GG, CCA, SAG

    tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA

    Drive My Car (Janus) – GG (Foreign – win)

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+), Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – CCA, House of Gucci (MGM) – SAG, The Lost Daughter (Netflix), Being the Ricardos (Amazon), Spider-Man: No Way Home (Disney/Marvel), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Spencer (NEON), Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics) – GG, Cyrano (MGM) – GG

    Campion, Spielberg, and Villeneuve seem locked to me, while PTA and Branagh could drop for Hamaguchi or McKay. Other than those seven, I don’t see any filmmakers getting nods here. If Licorice Pizza ends up underperforming due to controversy or other factors, PTA might miss. Branagh fits the mold of other writer-directors (Aaron Sorkin, Peter Farrelly, and Martin McDonagh) who were directors of top 2 Best Picture contenders yet missed Best Director nominations as the Academy sees their films as primarily achievements of writing as opposed to directing.

    Hamaguchi directed the most critically-acclaimed film of the year and if Drive My Car gets a PGA nomination, he is 99.9% getting nominated here, though I’m not sure if that will happen. McKay was given nominations for both The Big Short and Vice and while those two films were received more positively by critics than Don’t Look Up there is a good chance he gets his third Best Director nomination.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog – GG (win), CCA

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story – GG, CCA

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune – GG, CCA

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza – CCA

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast – GG, CCA

    Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley – CCA, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter – GG

    I think the foursome of Cumberbatch, Smith, Washington, and Garfield are very much locked to receive a nod in February. The question is who will fill that last spot? I think it’s between DiCaprio, Bardem, and Dinklage. All three appeared on the BAFTA longlist and received Golden Globe nominations. Dinklage is the only one of the three that received a nomination at Critics Choice and Bardem is the only one who received a SAG nod. However, there is also a very strong correlation between Best Actor and Best Picture. In the last five years, an average of 3.8 of the five Best Actor nominees for in Best Picture nominees. Don’t Look Up is easily a stronger Best Picture contender than Being the Ricardos and Cyrano and DiCaprio is one of the biggest stars in the world so I am going to go with him unless BAFTA somehow changes my mind.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

    Will Smith – King Richard – GG (win), CCA, SAG

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth – GG, CCA, SAG

    Andrew Garfield – Tick, tick…BOOM! – GG (win), CCA, SAG

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up – GG

    Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos – GG, SAG, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano – GG, CCA, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Nicolas Cage – Pig – CCA

    Kristen Stewart’s snub at SAG was easily the most surprising omission in their nomination slate. This category is now very open and I can see Kidman, Stewart, or Colman eventually winning. Those three and Gaga are pretty firmly set in for nominations and that last slot could go to Cruz, Chastain, Zegler, or Hudson (who has had a resurgence since her SAG nod). BAFTA will probably make that more clear and until then I’ll have Chastain in as she’s hit every major precursor so far.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG (win), SAG, CCA

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer – GG, CCA

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter – GG, SAG, CCA

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci – GG, SAG, CCA

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – GG, SAG, CCA

    Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect – SAG, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story – GG (win), CCA, Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, Troy Kotsur, and Ciaran Hinds all seem locked for a nomination in my eyes. The last two slots are between Cooper, Dornan, Plemons, and Leto. While House of Gucci will be a bigger Oscar player than last year’s The Little Things, I still think Leto will miss this year after receiving two precursor nods. In the last six Oscar seasons except for one, Jesse Plemons has been in at least one Best Picture-nominated film (Judas and the Black Messiah, The Irishman, Vice, The Post, Bridge of Spies). The actor has consistently done good work in Oscar-caliber films and he might get carried on a river of goodwill for The Power of the Dog and earn his first nomination.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG (win), CCA, SAG

    Troy Kotsur – CODA – GG, CCA, SAG

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast – GG, CCA

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza – SAG

    Jamie Dornan – Belfast – GG, CCA

    Could Jump In: Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, Jared Leto – House of Gucci – CCA, SAG, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar – GG, SAG, JK Simmons – CCA

    Ariana DeBose, Caitrona Balfe, and Kirsten Dunst are locked here since they’ve hit all the major precursors. It’s hard for me to see anyone else usurping either Ellis’ or Negga’s spots and to me, only Moreno or Blanchett really have a realistic chance of doing so.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG (win), CCA, SAG

    Caitrona Balfe – Belfast – GG, CCA, SAG

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard – GG, CCA

    Ruth Negga – Passing – GG, SAG

    Could Jump In: Rita Moreno – West Side Story – CCA, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley – SAG, Ann Dowd – Mass – CCA, Marlee Matlin – CODA

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA

    Belfast – GG (win), CCA

    Don’t Look Up – GG, CCA

    King Richard – CCA

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, Red Rocket

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, USC

    The Lost Daughter – CCA, USC

    CODA – CCA

    Drive My Car

    West Side Story – CCA

    Could Jump In: Dune – CCA, USC, Nightmare Alley, Passing – USC, The Last Duel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie)

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines – CCA, Annie

    Encanto – GG (win), CCA, Annie

    Luca – GG, CCA, Annie

    Raya and the Last Dragon – GG, CCA, Annie

    Could Jump In: Belle – Annie (Indie), Sing 2 – Annie, The Summit of the Gods – Annie (Indie)

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley – CCA, SDSA

    Dune – CCA, SDSA

    West Side Story – CCA, SDSA

    The Tragedy of Macbeth – SDSA

    Belfast – CCA

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch – CCA, SDSA, Being the Ricardos – SDSA, Cyrano – SDSA, The Last Duel, The Power of the Dog – SDSA

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune – CCA

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    The Tragedy of Macbeth – CCA

    West Side Story – CCA

    Belfast – CCA

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley – CCA, The French Dispatch, Spencer, The Green Knight, C’mon C’mon

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune – CCA

    Cruella – CCA

    West Side Story – CCA

    Nightmare Alley – CCA

    Spencer

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, House of Gucci – CCA, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune – CCA

    Belfast – CCA

    West Side Story – CCA

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: King Richard, Licorice Pizza – CCA, No Time to Die, tick, tick…BOOM!, The French Dispatch

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Dune – CCA

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA

    House of Gucci – CCA

    Cruella – CCA

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Coming 2 America, The Suicide Squad, Nightmare Alley – CCA, Cyrano, No Time to Die

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    No Time to Die

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: tick, tick…Boom!, The Power of the Dog, Last Night in Soho, A Quiet Place Part II, The Matrix Resurrections

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune – CCA, VES

    Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES

    Godzilla vs. Kong – VES

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – CCA, VES

    The Matrix Resurrections – CCA, VES

    Could Jump In: Eternals – VES, Free Guy, No Time to Die – VES, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Black Widow – VES

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune – CCA, GG (win), SCL

    The Power of the Dog – CCA, GG, SCL

    The French Dispatch – GG, SCL

    Spencer – CCA, SCL

    Don’t Look Up – CCA, SCL

    Could Jump In: Parallel Mothers – GG, SCL, Encanto – GG, SCL, No Time to Die, The Green Knight – SCL, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die – GG, CCA

    King Richard – GG, CCA

    Encanto – GG, CCA

    Respect – GG

    Don’t Look Up – CCA

    Could Jump In: Belfast – GG, CODA, The Harder They Fall – CCA, Annette, Sing 2

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Drive My Car – GG (win), CCA

    A Hero – GG, CCA

    The Hand of God – GG, CCA

    Flee – CCA

    The Worst Person in the World – CCA

    Could Jump In: Prayers for the Stolen, Compartment No. 6 – GG, I’m Your Man, Lamb, The Good Boss

    Keep in mind that the Academy does seem to have an aversion to documentaries composed mostly of archival footage and that’s why I’m hesitant to predict films like Summer of Soul and Attica.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Flee

    The Rescue

    Procession

    Ascension

    Faya Dayi

    Could Jump In: Summer of Soul, Julia, The First Wave, Attica, The Velvet Underground

  • Oscar Shortlists Announced in 10 Categories

    Oscar Shortlists Announced in 10 Categories

    The Academy announced its shortlists for 10 categories (Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Music (Original Score), Music (Original Song), Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Sound and Visual Effects).

    Outside of France’s Titane missing in International Feature, there weren’t many major snubs, though Julia Ducournau’s chances at a Director nod are essentially zero after the film’s exclusion.

    Here are the shortlists:

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    “Ascension”“Attica”“Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry”“Faya Dayi”“The First Wave”“Flee”“In the Same Breath”“Julia”“President”“Procession”“The Rescue”“Simple as Water”“Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”“The Velvet Underground”“Writing with Fire”

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

    “Águilas”“Audible”“A Broken House”“Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis”“Coded: The Hidden Love of J. C. Leyendecker”“Day of Rage”“The Facility”“Lead Me Home”“Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day””“The Queen of Basketball”“Sophie & the Baron”“Takeover”“Terror Contagion”“Three Songs for Benazir”“When We Were Bullies”

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Austria, “Great Freedom”Belgium, “Playground”Bhutan, “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom”Denmark, “Flee”Finland, “Compartment No. 6”Germany, “I’m Your Man”Iceland, “Lamb”Iran, “A Hero”Italy, “The Hand of God”Japan, “Drive My Car”Kosovo, “Hive”Mexico, “Prayers for the Stolen”Norway, “The Worst Person in the World”Panama, “Plaza Catedral”Spain, “The Good Boss”

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

    “Coming 2 America”“Cruella”“Cyrano”“Dune”“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”“House of Gucci”“Nightmare Alley”“No Time to Die”“The Suicide Squad”“West Side Story”

    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

    “Being the Ricardos”“Candyman”“Don’t Look Up”“Dune”“Encanto”“The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun”“The Green Knight”“The Harder They Fall”“King Richard”“The Last Duel”“No Time to Die”“Parallel Mothers”“The Power of the Dog”“Spencer”“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

    “So May We Start?” from “Annette”“Down To Joy” from “Belfast”“Right Where I Belong” from “Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road”“Automatic Woman” from “Bruised”“Dream Girl” from “Cinderella”“Beyond The Shore” from “CODA”“The Anonymous Ones” from “Dear Evan Hansen”“Just Look Up” from “Don’t Look Up”“Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto”“Somehow You Do” from “Four Good Days”“Guns Go Bang” from “The Harder They Fall”“Be Alive” from “King Richard”“No Time To Die” from “No Time to Die”“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from “Respect”“Your Song Saved My Life” from “Sing 2”

    ANIMATED SHORT FILM

    “Affairs of the Art”“Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice”“Bad Seeds”“Bestia”“Boxballet”“Flowing Home”“Mum Is Pouring Rain”“The Musician”“Namoo”“Only a Child”“Robin Robin”“Souvenir Souvenir”“Step into the River”“Us Again”“The Windshield Wiper”

    LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

    “Ala Kachuu – Take and Run”“Censor of Dreams”“The Criminals”“Distances”“The Dress”“Frimas”“Les Grandes Claques”“The Long Goodbye”“On My Mind”“Please Hold”“Stenofonen”“Tala’vision”“Under the Heavens”“When the Sun Sets”“You’re Dead Helen”

    SOUND

    “Belfast”“Dune”“Last Night in Soho”“The Matrix Resurrections”“No Time to Die”“The Power of the Dog”“A Quiet Place Part II”“Spider-Man: No Way Home”“tick, tick…BOOM!”“West Side Story”

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    “Black Widow”“Dune”“Eternals”“Free Guy”“Ghostbusters: Afterlife”“Godzilla vs. Kong”“The Matrix Resurrections”“No Time to Die”“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”“Spider-Man: No Way Home”

    Source: The Hollywood Reporter

  • ‘Licorice Pizza’ Wins Big and ‘The Power of the Dog’ Misses at NBR

    ‘Licorice Pizza’ Wins Big and ‘The Power of the Dog’ Misses at NBR

    The first major precursor of the season just announced its picks. For years, the National Board of Review (NBR) awards have marked the beginning of Oscar season and they continued that with today’s announcement. One startling omission was Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, which many predicted to win here. It was not named as one of the top 10 films which is something that forces me to remove it from its place as the Best Picture favorite. It is absolutely still getting nominated, it just may not have the kind of support to get the haul I was predicting it to get. Licorice Pizza, on the other hand, gains in standing as its now both one of the most critically-acclaimed films of the year (90 Metascore) and has the first major precursor under its belt. Of course, it’s important to mention that none of the NBR’s Best Film winners in the last ten years except for Green Book ended up winning Picture, but Paul Thomas Anderson’s film gets a boost nonetheless.

    In the last 10 years an average of just over 5 films picked by the NBR went on to become Best Picture nominees. With the expanded field of 10 BP nominees this year I am predicting that around six of this year’s NBR picks will end up getting nominated for Best Picture.

    2011 — 4/9
    2012 — 7/9
    2013 — 5/9
    2014 — 4/8
    2015 — 5/8
    2016 — 7/9
    2017 — 6/9 (The Shape of Water was not picked by the NBR)
    2018 — 4/8
    2019 — 6/9 (Parasite won Best Foreign Language Film)
    2020 — 5/8

    Also, in the last 10 years every eventual Best Picture winner except for The Shape of Water in 2017 was a member of the NBR’s Top 10 Films, which makes it seem very likely that the eventual Best Picture winner from this year will one of the 10 films chosen by the NBR.

    Also, this is slightly irrelevant but I hope the Tragedy of Macbeth winning for Best Cinematography becomes a trend as the camerawork in that film (just from the trailer) epitomizes stunning.

    So without further ado, here are the picks from the NBR.

    Best Film: LICORICE PIZZA

    Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA

    Best Actor: Will Smith, KING RICHARD

    Best Actress: Rachel Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY

    Best Supporting Actor: Ciarán Hinds, BELFAST

    Best Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD

    Best Original Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, A HERO

    Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

    Breakthrough Performance: Alana Haim & Cooper Hoffman, LICORICE PIZZA

    Best Directorial Debut: Michael Sarnoski, PIG

    Best Animated Feature: ENCANTO

    Best Foreign Language Film: A HERO

    Best Documentary: SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)

    Best Ensemble: THE HARDER THEY FALL

    Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

    NBR Freedom of Expression Award: FLEE

    Top Films (in alphabetical order)
    Belfast
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    King Richard
    The Last Duel
    Nightmare Alley
    Red Rocket
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    West Side Story

    Top 5 Foreign Language Films (in alphabetical order)
    Benedetta
    Lamb
    Lingui, The Sacred Bonds
    Titane
    The Worst Person in the World

    Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)
    Ascension
    Attica
    Flee
    The Rescue
    Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain

    Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)
    The Card Counter
    C’mon C’mon
    CODA
    The Green Knight
    Holler
    Jockey
    Old Henry
    Pig
    Shiva Baby
    The Souvenir Part II

    Source: Yahoo

  • 2022 Oscars: Late October Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late October Predictions

    The Power of the Dog and Belfast are still the top contenders after their festival runs and sit significantly higher on this list than the others. That will definitely change as time goes on but both of these films will likely continue to be top 4 Best Picture contenders throughout the season.

    Now for the rest of the pack. Even though Dune may not have the critical reception of something like Mad Max Fury Road or Gravity (both of these films had Metascores over 90 while Dune is currently sitting at a 74), there is palpable passion for the film (Guillermo del Toro, Chloe Zhao, and Christopher Nolan have all sung the film’s praises) and the return of the cerebral blockbuster seems to be something that most in the industry have warmly received. I am pretty confident of it getting into Picture (but I highly doubt it has a chance of winning) so it takes the third slot.

    Bradley Cooper’s 2021 late-breakers Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza take the next two positions and I think Cooper could possibly be double-nominated and maybe even win his first Oscar. Trailers recently dropped for both of these films and Licorice Pizza looks like a major diversion from Paul Thomas Anderson’s more recent work. It looks to be an Almost Famous-lite coming-of-age story that returns to PTA’s San Fernando Valley roots. That’s the kind of film that will likely be more accessible to the Academy than some of the auteur’s past work and if he pulls it off, which is likely for PTA, the 8-time Oscar nominee could possibly receive his first Oscar (Even though he could win for Picture it’s more likely that he wins it for Original Screenplay). Del Toro’s last film was the Best Picture winner The Shape of Water so Nightmare Alley with Cate Blanchett, Bradley Cooper, Rooney Mara, Toni Colette, and Willem Dafoe is highly anticipated. My concern with both Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza is that they really could have benefited from a festival run. I highly doubt that a film that didn’t premiere at any of the fall festivals will end up winning Picture as the eventual Picture winner usually premieres at a fall festival and then gradually builds momentum that ends up in the film receiving the most coveted golden statue. Even with the season being extended to March, I don’t see either Nightmare Alley or Licorice Pizza being able to win this but if they deliver, they will be nominated.

    I get more skeptical about Don’t Look Up as time goes on but the pedigree it boasts is just much too hard to resist. It’s hard to fathom that a movie with Leo, JLaw, and Meryl in significant roles will not get a Best Picture nomination. If it gets at least a 70 Metascore it’s in undoubtedly. My confidence in West Side Story is also waning but I still have a lot of trust in Spielberg’s popularity in the industry and if the movie is at least mostly positively-received it should probably be able to get into Picture.

    King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and The Lost Daughter round out the last three slots. All three made splashes at festivals and could probably ride those positive notices to BP noms. King Richard is poised to be the Ford v Ferrari of this season. A sports film that audiences might really love that features uniformally great performances from its cast. Both Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis are likely to receive nods. The Tragedy of Macbeth is led by two of the most respected actors in the industry in Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand and with an 89 Metascore in tow I don’t see how the Academy can deny this film a BP nomination even if it’s not really their cup of tea. It’s probably the Mank or Phantom Thread of this year. Both of those films received nominations in Director so watch out for Joel Coen in that category as it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Director branch reward him for his auteur vision.

    The Gotham Awards released their nominations this month and of the films nominated for Best Feature, only Passing and The Lost Daughter look like they have a chance at above-the-line Oscar nominations. Both films are Netflix projects directed by actresses-turned-directors and are based on two highly acclaimed novels. In terms of receiving Oscar nominations, I’m going to give the edge to The Lost Daughter as I understand that it’s more accessible than Hall’s film and since I think it could be like The Father in that it’s a psychological thriller that audiences have a strong emotional response to.

    Anyway, here are my predictions for this month:

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

    The Lost Daughter (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Spencer, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, Passing, Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon, CODA, tick, tick…Boom!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Could Jump In: Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci/The Last Duel, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter, Julia Ducournau – Titane, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    Could Jump In: Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (This seems more like a Globes nomination than an Oscar one but I’m not confident about placing anyone else here)

    Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Caitrona Balfe – Belfast

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Glenn Close – Swan Song

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, Mass, Spencer, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    The Lost Daughter

    Nightmare Alley

    Passing

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: CODA, Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, The Humans, tick, tick…Boom!, West Side Story

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya the Last Dragon, Sing 2, Ron’s Gone Wrong, The Summit of the Gods, Cryptozoo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Belfast, Being the Ricardos, The Power of the Dog, The Last Duel, Cyrano, Spencer, Last Night in Soho, Licorice Pizza

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (From the trailers alone, this or Spencer is what I want to win here, though both are not too likely. I love the German Expressionism chiaroscuro used here. It’s stunning)

    The Power of the Dog

    Belfast

    Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Spencer (this looks so beautiful, Claire Mathon is so underrated), The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano, C’mon C’mon, Passing, The Green Knight

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    Being the Ricardos

    Cruella

    Spencer

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Cyrano, House of Gucci, West Side Story

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Being the Ricardos, The Matrix Resurrections, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Being the Ricardos

    Dune

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    House of Gucci

    Cruella

    Could Jump In: The Suicide Squad, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, King Richard, The French Dispatch

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Belfast

    No Time to Die

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Could Jump In: tick, tick…Boom, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Eternals, King Richard, The Last Duel, A Quiet Place Part II

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    Could Jump In: Godzilla vs. Kong, Free Guy, Nightmare Alley, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow, The Green Knight

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune (With the hype this Hans Zimmer score had, the final product is slightly underwhelming but until I hear more of the others I don’t know what can beat it)

    The Power of the Dog (I liked this, I don’t know if it’s a winning score but it sounds great)

    Spencer (If this film ends up getting a Best Picture nomination, I can see this score winning)

    The French Dispatch (Desplat was nominated for Isle of Dogs, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and The Grand Budapest Hotel and I don’t think this is a dip in quality so I think he can get in)

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Parallel Mothers, Nightmare Alley, Luca, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    King Richard

    No Time to Die

    Belfast

    Encanto

    The Rescue

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, Four Good Days, Annette, CODA, The Harder They Fall, Respect, Dear Evan Hansen, The Automat, Don’t Look Up

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    The Worst Person in the World

    The Hand of God

    A Hero

    Flee

    I’m Your Man

    Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, Titane, Drive My Car, Leave No Traces, Prayers for the Stolen, Unclenching the Fists, Lamb

  • The Oscars Need to Reform the International Feature Category

    The Oscars Need to Reform the International Feature Category

    With the news on Tuesday that the Spanish Film Academy has picked the Javier Bardem-led comedy “The Good Boss” instead of Oscar-winner Pedro Almodovar’s “Parallel Mothers” as its submission for the Best International Feature Oscar, the need for the Academy to reform its system for this category is very apparent.

    If you are unaware about the Academy’s current rules for this category, here are three important points:

    1. Each country can only submit one film. Meaning that each year, a country’s representative film academy has to choose which film they want to represent them at this year’s Oscars.
    2. The film has to be non-American and must be mostly in a language other than English. While prior to the 2006 Academy Awards, a foreign country had to submit a film that was in one of their official languages, that rule is (thankfully) no longer in place and Canada submitted the Hindi-language film Water at the 2007 Oscars as a result of this shift in policy. As a result of the films having to be non-American, films that were primarily in a non-English language like Apocalypto and last year’s Minari were ineligible from competing in this category since they were both American-produced features.
    3. The director accepts the award on behalf of their producing country’s film academy. The filmmakers themselves do not receive Oscars, their countries do.

     

    The idea that a country can only submit one film for this category is ludicrous as it defeats the point of having this category. This rule is archaic and needs to be amended. In an era like the 1950s where the cinema of countries like France and Italy dominated the American cinephile’s perception of what international cinema was, it makes some sense that each country could only submit one film as the Academy members of the time likely had a limited knowledge and appreciation of cinema outside of the canon of the Western world. Of the 32 International Feature awards given from the late 40s through the 70s, only five were given to non-European countries (three were for Japan, likely due to the fact that the United States was highly involved in the politics of Japan at the time after World War II and thus the Americans had an especially strong access to Japanese art. The two other films were in French and directed by men who worked in France but produced by African countries specifically the Ivory Coast and Algeria.) But in an era where 5 of the last 10 winners in this category were from non-European countries (and when a Korean film can win Best Picture), this system has become obsolete. The fact that only one film can be submitted for each country is quite mind-boggling in today’s world where the Academy has a diverse array of members and access to the art of other countries has been amplified extensively.

    A country’s film Academy shouldn’t have to submit films at all and the wealth of choices that international cinema has to offer should not be restricted by the politics of a small closed off voting body. There has been speculation that Spain did not submit Parallel Mothers (whose director and lead actress are Oscar winners) as the film is critical of the Spanish government. While this may not be the reason why the Spanish Film Academy did not choose Almodovar’s film, this situation wouldn’t be an outlier. Take filmmaker Jafar Panahi, one of the most celebrated Middle Eastern filmmakers of the 21st century. None of his films have ever been selected by the Iranian Film Academy as Panahi is a vocal critic of the Iranian government and that is apparent in his work. In 2010, Panahi was arrested and placed under house arrest “for propaganda against the Islamic republic” as he was attempting to make a documentary about the 2009 election of Mahmoud Ahmedinejad which he believed to be fraudulent. He was subsequently banned from making films for 20 years. Panahi’s case is just a symptom of a larger problem. Oppressive countries around the world often suppress art that doesn’t conform to their leaders’ values and beliefs and the Academy is essentially supporting this suppression by creating a system that keeps Academy members from choosing fantastic cinema that may challenge the values of their home country. If the Oscars truly want to reflect the best of film today, they should not restrict International film to a small pool of cinema. With this system, the Academy will actually be able to award the best of International cinema (of course the bias of the Academy towards certain types of films will always be a factor but with the greater diversification of Academy membership, let’s hope that issue becomes less and less prevalent) without the whims of each country’s respective film academies getting in the way.

    The other problem with this category is that ridiculously the award is not given to the directors and/or producers of the films but instead to the films’ country. Federico Fellini one of the most celebrated filmmakers to walk the earth has 0 competitive Oscars to his name even though four of his films won in this category. While the directors do accept the award at the ceremony they are actually accepting it on behalf of the country that submitted their film. Ingmar Bergman would have 3 Oscars and Vittorio De Sica would have four (if Special Awards are taken into account) if filmmakers were given their due like they are at other prestigious awards, such as the BAFTAs. Essentially, some of the best directors who have ever lived never received Oscars due to a rule that doesn’t need to have been in place (why couldn’t the Oscar be awarded to both the country and the filmmaker?)

    Every year, the Academy seems to tease some sort of major change (like the addition of a Best Popular Film category a few years ago) but this is an advance the Academy actually needs to act upon if we want to get international film and filmmakers to be treated fairly by the Academy. Of course the fact that the Oscars, awards that are supposed to honor the best of cinema no matter where it comes from, have to have an International Feature award in the first place is an inherently faulty notion but the time when the Academy moves away from being so aggressively American-centric is far down the line. But before that time (which will sadly probably never come to fruition) arrives, it wouldn’t be asking for too much for the Academy to amend what is easily its most controversial category.

  • 2022 Oscars: Late September Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late September Oscar Predictions

    We finally have sure things in this race. The Power of the Dog and Belfast are locks for Best Picture nominations after their success at TIFF. And Dune, which did not meet the high expectations for it in critics’ ratings (its 76 Metascore is pretty good but not fantastic) but it seems to be making up for that in box office success and popular acclaim. However, while the film is doing well overseas, if it ends up flopping stateside it will most likely end up like Blade Runner 2049: an underseen Villenueve gem that is limited to just tech nominations. Still, I doubt that it will flop too badly as it has had a strong performance internationally.

    Nightmare Alley’s trailer was released and this kind of noir-y psychological thriller needs stellar reviews to get into Best Picture. If it doesn’t have popular acclaim and/or critical acclaim (at least 85+ Metascore), then it might miss. But Guillermo del Toro and that all-star cast give me confidence to place it as high as I have it.

    The Tragedy of Macbeth premiered at New York around a week ago and has received stellar reviews from many critics (it has a 90 Metascore right now). Even though many say that it might not be exactly on the Academy’s wavelength, Denzel Washington, and Frances McDormand, and Joel Coen are too beloved in the industry and it’s hard for me to believe that a film with those three and fantastic reviews will not get into Picture.

    The trailer for Licorice Pizza came out (officially) yesterday and it looks like Paul Thomas Anderson’s most accessible film yet. PTA has still never won an Oscar even though he’s been nominated eight time and this coming-of-age period dramedy could be his ticket to finally getting some Oscar love.

    The most important section of fall festival season has come to a close and other than films that have been previously-mentioned, films like King Richard, Spencer, Parallel Mothers, and The Lost Daughter have definitely made an impact. Of these four films, King Richard has the best chance of a Best Picture nominations and looks to be the kind of crowdpleaser that receives support from both general audiences and critics. Spencer and Parallel Mothers also have received acclaim and I project both to receive Best Actress nominations (for Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz respectively). Both have 85 Metascores but have different struggles that could be obstacles on their way to the Oscars. Spencer may be too artsy and inaccessible for the Academy while Parallel Mothers, the more accessible film, might not be able to transcend its status as an International Feature and get the eyeballs it needs to be nominated. The Lost Daughter has an 88 Metascore and a pretty well-known cast yet the subject matter may be too edgy for the Academy at large, though I do think it can get an Adapted Screenplay nom.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    Spencer (NEON)

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Being the Ricardos, Parallel Mothers, The French Dispatch, Passing, The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, C’mon C’mon, The Humans, CODA, A Hero, Tick, Tick…Boom!, Eternals, Mass, The Tender Bar

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Leonardo Dicaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom!, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year she’s in), Lady Gaga – House of Gucci, Caitrona Balfe – Belfast, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Judi Dench – Belfast (Or Caitrona Balfe if she is slotted in here)

    Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley (Or Cate Blanchett if she is slotted in here)

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Parallel Mothers, Being the Ricardos, Spencer, C’mon C’mon, Mass, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The Lost Daughter

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Passing, The Tragedy of Macbeth, CODA, The Humans, The Tender Bar, West Side Story, The Last Duel

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, Where is Anne Frank?, Sing 2, Vivo, Cryptozoo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, Spencer, Passing, The Power of the Dog

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Passing

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Spencer

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (will be here if it’s released this year), Cruella, Respect, West Side Story, House of Gucci

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: King Richard, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, Eternals, Being the Ricardos

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    House of Gucci

    Cruella

    Spencer

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (if it releases this year it’s in), The Suicide Squad, Respect, King Richard, The French Dispatch

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Eternals

    West Side Story

    No Time to Die

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Quiet Place Part II, The Power of the Dog, The Matrix: Resurrections

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Matrix: Resurrections

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Tomorrow War

    Could Jump In: Shang-Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Godzilla vs Kong, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow

    Hans Zimmer (Dune and No Time to Die; Zimmer has a couple other scores from this year but hopefully nobody is seriously considering The Boss Baby 2 in this category), Alexandre Desplat Nightmare Alley and The French Dispatch), and Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog and Spencer; Greenwood also has Licorice Pizza) all have at least two scores in contention this year. I am pretty sure at least one of them will be double-nominated

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    Spencer

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Parallel Mothers, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Luca, Eternals

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    King Richard

    Encanto

    Respect

    Annette

    Could Jump In: Belfast, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, The Starling, The Automat

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Parallel Mothers

    A Hero

    The Hand of God

    The Worst Person in the World

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Happening or Petite Maman (I don’t see France choosing Titane when these two are available but they might), Compartment No. 6, I’m Your Man, Drive My Car