Awards Insights

Tag: oscar

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    After watching The Power of the Dog, I was sure Benedict Cumberbatch was going to win this. I even thought that Will Smith could take GG, CCA, and SAG, but if Cumberbatch at least BAFTA he would win. Well, Will Smith has swept all the precursors and while Cumberbatch still has a chance to steal, it seems to be Smith’s moment.

    Nominees:

    Will Smith – King Richard – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

    Pick: Will Smith – King Richard 

    BEST ACTRESS

    Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart are all the leads of biopics and, as a result, will likely split votes. Among the three, Chastain seems to have the edge since she didn’t have the uncanny-valley makeup of Kidman or the inaccessible-to-some film that Stewart had. As a result of this vote-splitting, Penelope Cruz and/or Olivia Colman could benefit. Cruz seems to have the most passion behind her performance but I’m still unsure about whether enough people saw the film. I’m going to go with precursor leader Chastain though anyone, most likely Cruz or Stewart, can steal.

    Nominees:

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA, SAG

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    Pick: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    2021 – Daniel Kaluuya – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2020 – Brad Pitt – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2019 – Mahershala Ali – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2018 – Sam Rockwell – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2017 – Mahershala Ali – SAG, CCA

    2016 – Mark Rylance – BAFTA

     2015 – JK Simmons – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    Troy Kotsur has so much love right now and he has won three of the four major precursors in this category. Even if CODA doesn’t win Picture, Kotsur should take this though I don’t see CODA becoming our Picture winner without Kotsur first taking this.

    Nominees: 

    Troy Kotsur – CODA – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos

    Pick: Troy Kotsur – CODA

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Ariana DeBose has swept this category so this really should be a no-brainer. However, Kirsten Dunst is beloved by so many and there does seem to be a semblance of a campaign to have the overdue Dunst win on her first nomination. However, I am personally going to stick with DeBose, who’s win in a musical reminds me of when Jennifer Hudson won for Dreamgirls.

    Nominees:

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

    Pick: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

     

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Because both BAFTA and CCA went with films (No Time to Die and West Side Story respectively) that are not nominees here, this category is really interesting. One stat I want to mention is that every Editing winner since Whiplash has won a Sound award as well, and the only nominees here that are also nominated for Sound are Dune and The Power of the Dog. If you look at the films that have recently been awarded in this category, they are usually centered around music, sports, war, and/or sci-fi action. Dune fits the last two boxes while The Power of the Dog doesn’t hit any. Therefore, Dune should take this.

    Nominees:

    Dune

    King Richard – ACE (Drama)

    The Power of the Dog

    tick, tick…BOOM! – ACE (Comedy)

    Don’t Look Up

    Pick: Dune

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    In the last 20 years, only four winners have won this category without a nomination in Best Director (funnily enough, Villeneuve’s previous film Blade Runner 2049 won Best Cinematography although Villeneuve missed Director).

    2021 – Mank – ASC

    2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

    2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2014 – Gravity – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2013 – Life of Pi – BAFTA, CCA

    Based on past winners, the Academy seems to like very flashy cinematography in this category. For this category, BAFTA and ASC are the most important precursors and Dune’s BAFTA-ASC combination should help it to victory. The last time a film with that combination with that combination lost the Oscar was Children of Men in 2007. The Power of the Dog and ‘Macbeth’ can steal, but this seems like Dune’s to lose.

    Nominees:

    Dune – BAFTA, ASC

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Nightmare Alley

    West Side Story

    Pick: Dune

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Cruella is the overwhelming favorite but two things give me pause. Firstly, every winner in the last 25 years has been set primarily in the 1950s or earlier or was a sci-fi/fantasy film. Secondly, in the last 30 years, only five films have won this award without a Production Design nod as well. Cruella is set in the 1970s. It has the flashiest costumes of the bunch and that alone should push it to the win but don’t be surprised if something like Dune or Nightmare Alley (which both have production design nominations unlike Cruella) steal.

    Nominees: 

    Cruella – CCA, BAFTA, CDG (Period)

    Dune – CDG (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)

    Nightmare Alley

    Cyrano

    West Side Story

    Pick: Cruella

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Since Inside Out in 2015, every winner in this category has won at both CCA and PGA. This year, those two awards have split with CCA going to The Mitchells vs. the Machines and PGA going to Encanto. This is not a category where the Academy makes especially unique or groundbreaking picks (How are Howl’s Moving Castle, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, and Klaus not winners?). They usually go with Pixar films with Disney films like Zootopia, Big Hero 6, and Frozen recently making the cut. Disney’s Encanto is by far the biggest film of the nominees and has enough love and passion throughout the Academy for me to be confident with picking it here (even though Flee or ‘Mitchells’ would be personally preferred).

    Nominees:

    Encanto – GG, BAFTA, PGA

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Annie, CCA

    Flee – Annie (Indie)

    Luca

    Raya and the Last Dragon

    Pick: Encanto

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    This one seems pretty obvious. The Worst Person in the World and Flee both received nominations in other categories, illustrating the support they both have, however, Drive My Car received nominations in Best Picture and Best Director and should easily win this.

    Nominees:

    Drive My Car – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    The Worst Person in the World

    Flee

    The Hand of God

    Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

    Pick: Drive My Car

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    No winner in this category in the past seven years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and the only nominee that fits that criterion is Summer of Soul. And I’m not even mentioning the fact that Questlove’s film has won at CCA, BAFTA, PGA, and ACE. It’s by far the leader in the precursors, has wide industry support, and is undoubtedly one of the most acclaimed films of the year.

    Nominees: 

    Summer of Soul – CCA, PGA, ACE, BAFTA

    Flee

    Attica – DGA

    Ascension

    Writing With Fire

    Pick: Summer of Soul

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The last 10 winners in this category (Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in categories other than Visual Effects in addition to their Visual Effects nominations (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). Only Dune and No Time to Die can boast the same this year. The Academy also prefers CGI over practical effects in this category (with an exception to this trend being 1917), which benefits Dune. I personally believe this is one of the easiest to predict awards of the year since Dune has had this in the bag basically since it was announced.

    Nominees:

    Dune – BAFTA, VES (x4)

    Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES

    No Time to Die

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

    Free Guy

    Pick: Dune

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG

    2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

    2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    As you can see from this list of the last seven winners in this category, CCA and ADG are incredibly important precursors here. This year, Dune won BAFTA, CCA, and an ADG award so from a precursor perspective, it’s the obvious frontrunner. Nightmare Alley received an ADG win as well, but Dune has dominated the precursors in this category and the Academy has chosen enough sci-fi films here (Black Panther and Mad Max: Fury Road) for me to be confident about picking it.

    Nominees:

    Dune – BAFTA, CCA, SDSA, ADG

    Nightmare Alley – ADG

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The Power of the Dog

    Pick: Dune

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

    2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

    The last four winners in this category went to biopic films showcasing famous actors transforming physically into famous figures partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye fits this trend and even though the film didn’t win a MUAH, which is something the last seven winners won, it should still win. 6 of the 7 of these past winners went to films who were also nominated in above-the-line categories (Suicide Squad is the exception but none of its competitors were nominated in above-the-line categories either). This year, The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Dune are the only two nominees that have ATL nominations and since the former has precursor wins, it should win.

    Nominees:

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA

    Cruella – MUAH

    Coming 2 America – MUAH (x3)

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Pick: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

     

  • Post-Oscar Nominations Analysis

    Post-Oscar Nominations Analysis

    BEST PICTURE

    A stat that I want to mention is that no Best Picture winner in at least the last 10 years has won the award without being at least nominated for a Picture award, Best Director, and Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes.

    The only two films that received those nominations were The Power of the Dog and Belfast.

    Another notable stat is that in the preferential era, only one Best Picture-winning film (Birdman which was made to look like it was filmed in one shot) was not nominated in Best Editing as well. Of The Power of the Dog and Belfast, only the former film has been nominated for Best Editing. What this tells me is that I am even more confident about having The Power of the Dog as my Best Picture winner.

    Nominations snubs and surprises:

    Drive My Car!!! It’s fantastic that we live in a world where a 3-hour Japanese film can get nominated for Best Picture (in addition to Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay). Many were predicting it but it’s still great to see.

    Tick, tick, BOOM! misses and Nightmare Alley makes it in. Though tick, tick, BOOM! had CCA and PGA, it apparently did not have the level of support that Nightmare Alley had. I think this inclusion shows how powerful of a campaigning machine Searchlight is. They almost always get at least one of their films in, even when they don’t seem like they have very much support. I don’t think any other distributor could’ve pushed Nightmare Alley into Best Picture.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Denis Villeneuve’s snub here was pretty shocking and I’m still surprised as I thought someone like Branagh was more likely to miss for Hamaguchi. Well, Campion still has this win secured and I can easily see her sweeping all the major directing precursors on the way to the Oscars.

    BEST ACTOR

    What’s interesting to me is that Being the Ricardos received three acting nominations (Javier Bardem, Nicole Kidman, and J.K. Simmons) yet didn’t hit Original Screenplay and ended up not making Picture. I had a feeling that Sorkin wasn’t going to get a Screenplay nod since the writers branch historically aligns more with critics than other branches, but the fact that the film got the acting nods it did shows to me how much the Academy is infatuated with biopic performances and specifically, portrayals of Hollywood figures.

    Anyways other than Bardem, the other four men (Cumberbatch, Smith, Garfield, and Washington) have been locked in for a while and all of them got in. My winner prediction at this point is Cumberbatch.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Lady Gaga missing and Penelope Cruz getting in were definitely big surprises. Gaga was the only actress to get nods from all of the major precursors and they still didn’t nominate her, showing to me that they really were not too keen on House of Gucci, which didn’t even get a Costume Design nomination (it only received a nod in Makeup & Hairstyling).

    In other news, Kristen Stewart. who missed at both SAG and at BAFTA (which went 0 for 5 with the Oscar Best Actress field this year), got in at the Oscars and was the sole nomination for Spencer. Now that she has been nominated, she definitely has a chance to win though I still think Kidman has the best chance though Stewart or Colman are close behind.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Plemons’ inclusion here is indicative of the broad support The Power of the Dog has. For a chamber drama like The Power of the Dog to be the nomination leader (12) is really an achievement and it makes me even more confident about predicting it for the win. And it’s great to see Plemons finally receive an Oscar nomination after being in six Best Picture nominees in the last seven years. As I mentioned previously JK Simmons was a surprise inclusion here, and slightly less surprisingly, Bradley Cooper missed.

    Cooper was in Licorice Pizza for less than ten minutes but was seen in the predictions of many. The fact that both Alana Haim and Cooper missed as well as Andy Jurgensen in Editing shows that Licorice Pizza is most definitely not a top-3 Best Picture contender and might even miss an Original Screenplay win (which would be maddening as Paul Thomas Anderson needs an Oscar ASAP).

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    This was the first-announced award of the presentation and when I saw it, I knew we were in for a very interesting slate of nominees. Jessie Buckley and Judi Dench got in while Caitriona Balfe and Ruth Negga missed. Balfe’s omission is especially surprising as she, like Lady Gaga in Best Actress, hit all the major precursors and was included by many to be the best part of Belfast. To me, her exclusion is even more surprising than Gaga’s since her film is a top-tier Best Picture contender. Dench was instead this category’s representation for Branagh’s film and has now received eight nominations in twenty-four years.

    Jessie Buckley’s inclusion was a welcome surprise and I think it really exemplifies the main theme of this year’s nominees as a whole. The Oscars are not going to lean in to calls to become more populist. With Buckley’s nod here, the three above-the-line nominations for Drive My Car, and the nomination for Penelope Cruz, among other inspired picks (including The Worst Person in the World’s inclusion over Being the Ricardos in Original Screenplay), the Academy seems to be defiantly ignoring requests to become more aligned with the tastes of the general population (such as the movement to try to get Spider-Man: No Way Home a Best Picture nomination). While this is probably good news for lovers of international and more daring cinema, the Oscars do run the risk of alienating people, though it seems that the Academy could not care less, and that mindset could show up in who they choose as their winners in March.

  • 2022 Oscar Nominations: ‘The Power of the Dog’ Leads With 12

    2022 Oscar Nominations: ‘The Power of the Dog’ Leads With 12

    The day we’ve all been waiting for is finally here. The 2022 Oscar nominations were announced this morning and featured many snubs and surprises. I’ll get into those in a post coming soon so here are the nominations.

    Here are the Academy Award nominations, in the order they were announced this morning:

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
    Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
    Judi Dench (Belfast)
    Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
    Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
    Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
    Dune (Jacqueline West)
    Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
    West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)

    BEST SOUND

    Belfast
    Dune
    No Time to Die
    The Power of the Dog
    West Side Story

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
    Dune (Hans Zimmer)
    Encanto (Germaine Franco)
    Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
    The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    CODA (Sian Heder)
    Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe)
    Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve)
    The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
    The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
    Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota)
    Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
    King Richard
    The Worst Person in the World

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    Affairs of the Art
    Bestia
    Boxballet
    Robin Robin
    The Windshield Wiper

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
    The Dress
    The Long Goodbye
    On My Mind
    Please Hold

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
    Troy Kotsur (CODA)
    Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
    J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
    Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
    Dune (Joe Walker)
    King Richard (Pamela Martin)
    The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
    Tick, Tick… Boom! (Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum)

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    House of Gucci
    Coming 2 America
    Cruella
    Dune

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Encanto
    Flee
    Luca
    The Mitchells vs. The Machines
    Raya and the Last Dragon

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Ascension
    Attica
    Flee
    Summer of Soul
    Writing With Fire

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Audible
    Lead Me Home
    The Queen of Basketball
    Three Songs for Benazir
    When We Were Bullies

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    “Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard)
    “Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
    “Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast)
    “No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
    “Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days)

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune (Greig Fraser)
    Nightmare Alley (Dan Lausten)
    The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
    The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
    West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Drive My Car (Japan)
    Flee (Denmark)
    The Hand of God (Italy)
    Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
    The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Dune (Zsuzsanna Sipos & Patrice Vermette)
    Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau)
    The Power of the Dog (Grant Major & Amber Richards)
    The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh)
    West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen)

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune
    Free Guy
    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
    No Time to Die
    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST ACTRESS

    Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
    Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
    Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
    Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
    Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

    BEST ACTOR

    Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
    Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
    Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
    Will Smith (King Richard)
    Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
    Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
    Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
    Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
    Drive My Car (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi)

    BEST PICTURE

    Belfast
    CODA
    Don’t Look Up
    Drive My Car
    Dune
    King Richard
    Licorice Pizza
    Nightmare Alley
    The Power of the Dog
    West Side Story

    Source: AwardsRadar

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

    The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between DiCaprio and Bardem. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and while both DiCaprio and Bardem are in top-12 Best Picture contenders, DiCaprio is one of the biggest movie stars of the 21st century and is in the bigger Best Picture contender.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Will Smith – King Richard – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! – GG, CCA, SAG

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth – GG, CCA, SAG

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up – GG, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos – GG, SAG, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano – GG, CCA

    I don’t even know where to begin with this category. I think Lady Gaga and Nicole Kidman are locks but the last three slots seem very wide-open to me. Close behind Gaga and Kidman is Olivia Colman. Like Kidman, Colman has appeared at all the non-juried major precursors, though her BAFTA miss was slightly surprising.

    Speaking of BAFTA, their nominees in this category were chosen by a system where the whole academy voted on two nominees and a jury picked the other six. Lady Gaga was definitely one of those two picks and the other one was most probably Alana Haim, which leads me to believe that she will be nominated here as she was (presumably) second in voting at the BAFTAs

    BEST ACTRESS

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, SAG

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter – GG, CCA, SAG

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – GG, CCA, SAG

    Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Kristen Stewart – Spencer – GG, CCA, Jennifer Hudson – Respect – SAG, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, Ciaran Hinds, and Troy Kotsur are all locks and Bradley Cooper, Jesse Plemons, Jared Leto, Jamie Dornan, and Ben Affleck are the only guys I think could fill those last two slots.

    The first actor I’m going to remove from the five is Ben Affleck. He fits the mold of a big actor those two groups like yet is in a film that is a non-entity in all other categories and misses out on an Oscar nod in the end (Jared Leto for The Little Things, Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, and Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation are examples).

    I am going to put Bradley Cooper in that fourth slot. He is the biggest name in a top 5 Best Picture contender and is cited by many as their favorite part of the film. Even though he only has a SAG nod and is in the film for less than 10 minutes, he seems more secure than Leto, Dornan, or Plemons.

    The next actor I am going to take out is Dornan since I don’t think he has the body of work that Plemons has or the (inexplicable) industry respect that Jared Leto has. That means that last spot is between Leto and Plemons. I think Leto has a chance of getting a Razzie nomination for his performance but it’s also true that the Academy likes these prosthetic-laden roles. However, unlike Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy, Jared Leto’s Razzie-worthy work probably won’t be rewarded since he doesn’t have the overdue narrative that Close seems to have annually. That’s why I am going to go with Plemons, who has been in so many Best Picture nominees and has yet to been nominated for his consistently good work.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Troy Kotsur – CODA – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza – SAG

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Jared Leto – House of Gucci – CCA, SAG, Jamie Dornan – Belfast – GG, CCA, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar – GG, SAG

    The first three, DeBose, Balfe, and Dunst, are locked for nominations and the last two slots are really between three actresses: Ellis, Negga, and Dowd. Ellis and Negga have hit more precursors than Dowd and therefore have better chances of getting included. I was initially hesitant about including Negga but, in the last 10 years, two actresses Kathy Bates and Helen Hunt for the sole nominees for their respective films, and therefore my prediction of Negga being her film’s only nod has precedent.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Caitriona Balfe – Belfast – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Ruth Negga – Passing – GG, SAG, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass – CCA, BAFTA

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    Six films: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, and Don’t Look Up are undeniably locked for Picture nominations. CODA and King Richard follow close behind though I can see there being a world where either CODA or King Richard miss.

    The last two slots are a lot trickier in my eyes and I have honestly spent hours trying to decide on the films that will make those last two slots. There are five films that I think can get those last two slots: tick, tick…BOOM!, Drive My Car, Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley, and The Tragedy of Macbeth.

    One thing I am looking at is what films have passion behind them? I know for sure that Drive My Car has very passionate fans and critics and many international members have passionately supported it. The IMDb scores of these five films are as follows: Drive My Car (7.9), tick, tick…BOOM! (7.6), Nightmare Alley (7.3), The Tragedy of Macbeth (7.3), and Being the Ricardos (6.6). As you can see, after Drive My Car, tick, tick…BOOM! has the highest IMDb score and I feel that supporters of Andrew Garfield’s performance, Broadway lovers, and supporters of Lin-Manuel Miranda will push this film over the hump. Of these five films, it has also hit the most precursors.

    Being the Ricardos seems like a traditional nominee in this category: a biopic with the political turmoil of the subject’s time period in the background. However, the film’s Metascore (60) and mainly it’s IMDb score (6.6) really give me pause about predicting the film though it’s definitely in the 11th slot and could very well get in.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

    Belfast (Focus) – AFI (Special Award), NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

    Dune (Warner Bros.) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

    Licorice Pizza (MGM) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

    West Side Story (20th Century) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

    CODA (Apple+) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

    King Richard (Warner Bros.) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

    tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA

    Drive My Car (Janus) –

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – PGA, Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – AFI, NBR, CCA, The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+) – AFI, NBR

    I think that there are really two possibilities for what can occur here, the DGA five of Campion, Villeneuve, Spielberg, PTA, and Branagh get in or Hamaguchi replaces Branagh. I don’t see anything else happening and I am going to play it safe as I think all of these filmmakers, Branagh included, have enough respect as directors unlike previous people who have missed here like Aaron Sorkin or Peter Farrelly. Even if Drive My Car gets into BP, I think Hamaguchi has a better shot in Adapted Screenplay than here in Director.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Denis Villeneuve – GG, CCA, DGA

    Steven Spielberg – GG, CCA, DGA

    Paul Thomas Anderson – CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Kenneth Branagh – GG, CCA, DGA

    Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – BAFTA

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    Licorice Pizza, Belfast, and Don’t Look Up are all essentially guaranteed nominations in this category. Being the Ricardos has hit all the major precursors and if the film gets into Picture, the film is also guaranteed a nod here. The Oscars seemingly don’t like Sorkin as much as everyone else does (the screenplay snub for Steve Jobs best exemplifies this), but I think that Being the Ricardos, as the competition in this category isn’t as strong as Steve Jobs’ competitors were, will hang on for a nomination. However, it’s also true that in the last 10 years, in both original and adapted screenplay, 2 of the 100 nominees (Joker (59) and Jojo Rabbit (58)) had Metascores that were not green. Both Don’t Look Up (49) and Being the Ricardos (60) have yellow Metascores and while Don’t Look Up is a top 6 Best Picture contender like Joker and Jojo Rabbit, Being the Ricardos is not. Thus, the Sorkin film is vulnerable for a miss and I think Wes Anderson and The French Dispatch have the best chance of taking his spot, however I am going to play it safe and keep Sorkin in.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    Belfast – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Don’t Look Up – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    King Richard – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch – WGA, Mass, Parallel Mothers

    I am pretty confident about this five. The first three especially since all of them will be Best Picture nominees. The last musical to be nominated in adapted screenplay was Chicago in 2003, though it’s also true that since Chicago only two musicals, Les Miserables and La La Land, have been nominated for Best Picture and La La Land was nominated for Best Original Screenplay. Still, West Side Story’s star does seem to be falling somewhat after missing a BAFTA Best Film nomination. If Olivia Colman somehow misses Best Actress, I don’t see it receiving a nomination here but that’s not very likely. If Drive My Car gets in anywhere it’s here and the film has enough support to do that. (Note: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, and Drive My Car were all ineligible at WGA)

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, USC, BAFTA

    CODA – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

    Dune – CCA, WGA, USC, BAFTA

    The Lost Daughter – CCA, USC, BAFTA

    Drive My Car – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: West Side Story – CCA, WGA, tick, tick…BOOM! – WGA

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    Dune, West Side Story, and No Time to Die have racked up all three major precursor nods in this category and should increase that total come Tuesday morning.

    Avengers: Endgame and Avengers: Infinity War were never able to make into Best Sound though both films did not get CAS noms (only MPSE). No Way Home has both MPSE and CAS noms and could be the first Marvel film to break into a sound category since Black Panther.

    BEST SOUND

    Dune – MPSE, CAS. BAFTA

    West Side Story – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

    No Time to Die – MPSE, CAS, BAFTA

    The Power of the Dog – MPSE, CAS

    Spider-Man: No Way Home – MPSE, CAS

    Could Jump In: Belfast – MPSE, A Quiet Place Part II – MPSE, BAFTA, Last Night in Soho – MPSE, BAFTA

    This one is extremely hard to predict. The only ones I am confident about making it in are No Time to Die and Encanto. Other than those two films, I am not committed to anything else getting in. It’s a constantly shuffling lineup in my mind but I think I’m going to go with Respect, King Richard, and Don’t Look Up. CCA has a very good track record and I know they’ll have three of their nominees get in at the least.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die – GG, CCA, SCL

    Encanto – GG, CCA

    Respect – GG, SCL

    King Richard – GG, CCA

    Don’t Look Up – CCA, SCL

    Could Jump In: Belfast – GG, The Harder They Fall – CCA, SCL, Four Good Days – SCL, CODA, Annette

    Dune and The Power of the Dog are absolutely locked and will be battling it out for the win. I think Don’t Look Up and The French Dispatch are pretty close behind as well as they have hit three major precursors each. The last slot is between Encanto, Spencer, and Parallel Mothers, and while I love Jonny Greenwood’s Spencer score, Encanto is getting a lot of attention for its music in recent weeks and that can only help it here.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA

    The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA

    Don’t Look Up – CCA. SCL, BAFTA

    The French Dispatch – GG, SCL, BAFTA

    Encanto – GG, SCL

    Could Jump In: Spencer – CCA, SCL, Parallel Mothers – GG, SCL