Awards Insights

Tag: oscar

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    The films that usually get in here usually fall into four categories: films centered around music, war films, sports films, sci-fi films, and the eventual Best Picture winner. There are obviously exceptions to this, but these are the kinds of films that are usually seen here. This year, five top-8 contenders fit this mold: Top Gun: Maverick, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, and All Quiet on the Western Front. Tar and Babylon also fit this mold as they are largely centered around music but I don’t see either of them getting in over ‘All Quiet’ or ‘Avatar’

    This year, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) are releasing their nominations on February 1st, a week after the Oscar nominations so we won’t have that guild to help us in predicting this category.

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, BAFTA

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, BAFTA

    Elvis – CCA, BAFTA

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Avatar: The Way of Water – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA, Tar – CCA, The Fabelmans, Babylon – CCA

     

    Top Gun: Maverick is the only sure thing in this category as I could see every other one of the films I picked getting snubbed. All Quiet on the Western Front has fantastic cinematography and now that it is a top 7 Picture contender, I don’t see why it wouldn’t be recognized. Roger Deakins has been the sole nominee for his film twice in the past (Prisoners, The Man Who Wasn’t There) and this will likely be the third as Empire of Light hit all major precursors.

    If Elvis is nominated, which it is likely to, Mandy Walker will become only the third female cinematographer to receive a nomination in this category, joining Rachel Morrison for Mudbound and Ari Wegner for last year’s The Power of the Dog.

    For me, the last slot was a toss-up between Babylon, The Batman, The Fabelmans, and Avatar 2. I ended up going with Babylon since I felt the film had to be a top 12 Best Picture contender (which excludes The Batman) and a BAFTA longlist selection (which excludes The Fabelmans and Avatar 2).

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Top Gun: Maverick – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

    All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

    Empire of Light – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

    Elvis – ASC, BAFTA

    Babylon – CCA

    Could Jump In:  The Batman – ASC, BAFTA, The Fabelmans – CCA, Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA, Bardo – ASC

     

    Three films, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Elvis are locks here as they’ve either hit all the major precursors (Babylon and Elvis) or have won a major precursor and only missed one, (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, BAFTA wasn’t as big on the first film as the Oscars were so this is not a concern). As this branch seems to like only period or sci-fi/fantasy films and those three previously-mentioned films fit that criteria, I think they’re safe.

    The Woman King is a top-15 Best Picture contender set in the 18th and 19th centuries with intricately-designed costumes. I would be surprised if it misses, especially as the film has been nominated at multiple of the guilds and as Viola Davis is a very-likely Best Actress nominee.

    While this category loves period films, that period includes the 70s and before, anything after is not considered ‘period’ in what is the average age demographic of the Academy and so even if films are set around clothing or clothing tycoons (such as in the case of last year’s House of Gucci), they have a much lesser chance of being nominated here. That is a lucky thing for ‘Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris’ as it is both set around clothing and set in the 50s and seems poised for a nomination. Amsterdam, a BAFTA nominee, also has a chance of replacing ‘Mrs. Harris’ but while it is a film that would’ve been nominated a few years ago, the horrendousness of David O. Russell should keep the film from a nomination.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

    Elvis – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, CDG

    The Woman King – CCA, CDG

    Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – CDG, BAFTA

    Could Jump In: Amsterdam – BAFTA, Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, CDG, The Fabelmans

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    This year, four films seem locked for a mention come Tuesday morning: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell With Shoes On, Turning Red, and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish being those four. They’ve hit all the major precursors and have the wide support needed to be confidently nominated in this category.

    In my mind, the last slot is between My Father’s Dragon, Inu-Oh, Wendell & Wild and The Sea Beast. As Inu-Oh has the best ratings of the three (highest IMDb and Metacritic scores) and has another nod in addition to just the Annie nomination, it may be my pick to take the fifth slot but watch out for the previously-mentioned films as well. My Father’s Dragon is a Cartoon Saloon film and the Academy has shown their love for the studio in the past as every single other Cartoon Saloon film (Secret of the Kells, Song of the Sea, The Breadwinner, and Wolfwalkers) has been nominated in this category. However, all four of those films were nominated at either GG, CCA, or PGA or were critics’ favorites, none of which My Father’s Dragon has.

    Another stat to consider is that in the last nine years, there has been at least one non-American made film nominated here. Of the films I have noted as contenders for that fifth spot, only My Father’s Dragon and Inu-Oh fit this mold. Between the two, I think the former better represents what the Academy usually nominates in this category and as much as I wnat them to, I doubt the Academy will ever nominate a Masaaki Yuasa film (sigh).

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), BAFTA, PGA

    Turning Red – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

    My Father’s Dragon – Annie (Indie)

    Could Jump In: Inu-Oh – GG, Annie (Indie), Wendell & Wild – CCA, Annie, The Sea Beast – Annie

     

    Like with the previous category, four films seem essentially locked here: All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, Argentina, 1985, and Close (though I think Close is vulnerable for a surprise miss like A Hero last year).

    This category is so unpredictable, there has been at least one massive shock nominee in the last three years. I would not be surprised if that happens again (even though there is a lower chance of that happening due to ANOTHER rule change which will allow all Academy members to opt in to voting in this category if they say they’ve seen all the shortlisted films), but I’m going to play it safe and go with The Quiet Girl, which I think will be a definite nominee if enough people see it, which if Academy members are honest about seeing all the shortlisted films, they will have.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    All Quiet on the Western Front – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Decision to Leave – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Argentina, 1985 – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Close – GG, CCA

    The Quiet Girl – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: EO, Bardo – CCA, Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, Corsage – BAFTA

     

    Fire of Love has hit every precursor so far but it is a documentary built on mostly archival footage, which we see snubbed here time and time again. However, Critics Choice winner Good Night Oppy was already snubbed by not even being included in the longlists, so maybe the branch’s impulse to snub has already been exhausted.

    One of the big four in this category (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Navalny, All That Breathes) will be snubbed, I just can’t decide on which one even though I can think of arguments for each. So essentially I really doubt that this is what the nominations look like, these are just the most likely nominees in my view.

    Other than the four films with the most precursor nominations, Descendent is my pick the round out the top five. The Obamas’ production company Higher Ground has made two films eligible for the Oscar in this category, American Factory and Crip Camp, both of which were nominated (the former won). As a result, Descendent which is also critically-acclaimed and has both CCA and PGA nominations, seems pretty likely to continue this trend.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – IDA, CEH, BAFTA

    Fire of Love – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

    Navalny – CCA, IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

    All that Breathes – IDA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

    Descendent – CCA, PGA

    Could Jump In: The Territory – CEH, PGA, The Janes – IDA, Moonage Daydream – CCA, BAFTA, Bad Axe

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, and Animated Short

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, and Animated Short

    There are some topics that the Academy highlights in these categories consistently but other than that, predictions in these categories are essentially throwing darts at a map.

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    Le Pupille

    An Irish Goodbye

    The Red Suitcase

    Warsha

    Nakam

    Could Jump In: Almost Home, The Lone Wolf

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    The Flagmakers

    The Elephant Whisperers

    How Do You Measure a Year?

    38 at the Garden

    Nuisance Bear

    Could Jump In: Holding Moses, How Far Can They Run

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

    New Moon

    Save Ralph

    The Flying Sailor

    My Year of Dicks

    Could Jump In: Ice Merchants, An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

  • Golden Globes 2023: ‘Banshees’ Shocks ‘EEAAO’, ‘Abbott’ Has a Great Night

    Golden Globes 2023: ‘Banshees’ Shocks ‘EEAAO’, ‘Abbott’ Has a Great Night

    The biggest news when it comes to the Oscar race is the Banshees of Inisherin prevailing over Everything Everywhere All at Once in the Best Comedy/Musical category. While I think Everything Everywhere All at Once will still win Picture, I now doubt it will take the Picture, Director, Screenplay trifecta. The Fabelmans took Drama and Director cementing it as a top three Picture contender.

    On the TV side, it was a big day for Abbott Elementary (Tyler James Williams surprised for a win in Supporting Actor!) and The White Lotus

    Here are the winners:

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
    The Fabelmans, Universal Pictures

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
    The Banshees of Inisherin, Searchlight Pictures

    BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
    House of the Dragon, HBO Max

    BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
    Abbott Elementary, ABC

    BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
    Kevin Costner, Yellowstone

    BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TELEVISION MOTION PICTURE
    The White Lotus, HBO Max

    BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES, OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
    Evan Peters, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES, OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
    Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES/MOTION PICTURE
    Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES/ANTHOLOGY/TV MOVIE
    Paul Walter Houser, Black Bird

    BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
    Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

    BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
    Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE
    Argentina, 1985 (Argentina), Amazon Prime Video

    BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
    Cate Blanchett, Tár

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – TELEVISION SERIES
    Julia Garner, Ozark

    BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
    Zendaya, Euphoria

    BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
    Austin Butler, Elvis

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Netflix

    BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
    Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
    Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

    BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
    Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

    BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
    Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
    “Naatu Naatu”, RRR
    Music by: M.M. Keeravani; Lyrics by: Kala Bhairava, Rahul Sipligunj

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
    Justin Hurwitz, Babylon

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – TELEVISION SERIES
    Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary

    BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
    Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
    Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Source: Deadline

  • Late December Oscar Predictions 2023

    Late December Oscar Predictions 2023

    The Golden Globes, AFI, and Critics Choice awards have all been released and with them comes a clearer picture of what the Best Picture race will most probably end up looking like. At this point, I can essentially guarantee that EEAAO, The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Tar will be receiving Best Picture nods. They are the biggest contenders this year and other than hitting all the major precursors, they’ve also performed the best at the critics’ awards thus far. 

    The films that I see as very close to locked yet could also foresee a scenario where they don’t get a Best Picture nod are Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking, Babylon, and Elvis. All four of these films have done very well so far and have hit enough precursors for me to be confident in their inclusion, but a couple of factors here and there keep me from naming them guarantees. 

    That leaves two slots. One thing to note is that in the last four years, there has been at least one Netflix film nominated and, in the last three there have been two a year. In this year’s top eight, I have not included a Netflix film meaning that one of these last two slots will be filled by the streamer. RRR and Glass Onion are Netflix’s two biggest films this year and while both making it is a possibility, I don’t see it happening. RRR is the film with more passion and with a Best Director award from NYFCC and a CCA nod under its belt I can see the film being this year’s primarily non-English inclusion (the last four years have seen at least one primarily non-English film nominated). I am choosing Avatar 2 to fill in the last slot as of the remaining films it has hit the most precursors. 

    BEST PICTURE 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), AFI 

    The Fabelmans (Universal) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI 

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), AFI (Special Award) 

    Tar (Focus) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI  

    Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI  

    Women Talking (MGM) – CCA, AFI 

    Babylon (Paramount) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical) 

    Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI 

    RRR (Netflix) – CCA 

    Avatar 2 (20th Century) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI 

    Could Jump In: Aftersun, She Said (Universal) – AFI, Glass Onion (Netflix) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), The Woman King (Sony) – AFI, Till (MGM), Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG (Comedy/Musical), All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix), Bardo (Netflix), Decision to Leave (MUBI), Empire of Light (Searchlight), The Whale (A24) 

    Without DGA (the strongest predictor of this category), this category can be very hard to predict. However, I still believe I can safely say that Spielberg and the Daniels are pretty much locked and are the only two directors that have a realistic chance of taking this award come March. If RRR gets into Picture, I think NYFCC winner Rajamouli could follow it into Director in turn.  

    While The Fabelmans could very likely give Spielberg his third Director Oscar, I think Everything Everywhere All at Once is too strong and take Director, if not the trifecta of Picture, Director, and Screenplay. 

    BEST DIRECTOR 

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA 

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA 

    Todd Field – Tar – CCA 

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking – CCA 

    S.S. Rajamouli – RRR – CCA 

    Could Jump In: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, Damien Chazelle – Babylon – CCA, James Cameron – Avatar 2 – GG, CCA, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis – GG, CCA, Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness, Gina Prince-Blythewood – The Woman King – CCA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale 

    For the past five years in this category, the Critics Choice Awards have either chosen all of the eventual Oscar nominees or four. With that in mind, we can assume that at least four of Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, Paul Mescal, Bill Nighy, and Tom Cruise will be nominated. The former three (Farrell, Fraser, and Butler) are essentially locked for nominations at this point as they are far and away the leaders at the critics’ awards in terms of nominations. Which means at a minimum, at least one of Mescal, Nighy, or Cruise will be nominated. Since Bradley Cooper missed a Golden Globe nod in 2014, every eventual Best Actor nominee received a Golden Globe nomination en route to becoming an Oscar nominee (Banderas and Yeun being exceptions as films in contention for the Globes’ foreign language film prize couldn’t make their performances eligible for the lead acting categories until this year). With that in mind, Nighy, Jackman, and Calva are the most likely of the remaining seven Globe nominees to receive a nomination. Since Nighy is the only one with a CCA nod I’ll choose him and since Calva is essentially a newcomer I’ll go with Jackman even though Calva’s film is a much more likely Best Picture nominee. 

    This category often rewards very transformative performances. In just the last few years, we’ve seen Oldman as Churchill, Malek as Freddie Mercury, Phoenix as the Joker, and Smith as Richard Williams all win in this category. Of the three performances that are most likely to win in this category, Fraser’s and Butler’s are the transformative ones, while Farrell’s is relatively understated (and phenomenal). However, Fraser’s The Whale has an incredibly slim chance of receiving a Best Picture nomination  

    The last time a winner in this category has won for a performance in a film not nominated for Best Picture was Jeff Bridges for 2009’s Crazy Heart. This category especially  

    BEST ACTOR 

    Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG (Drama), CCA 

    Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG (Comedy/Musical), CCA 

    Austin Butler – Elvis – GG (Drama), CCA 

    Bill Nighy – Living – GG (Drama), CCA 

    Hugh Jackman – The Son – GG (Drama) 

    Could Jump In: Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, Diego Calva – Babylon – GG (Comedy/Musical), Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, Adam Driver – White Noise – GG (Comedy/Musical), Daniel Craig – Glass Onion – GG (Comedy/Musical), Song Kang-Ho – Broker 

    The CCA nominees are Blanchett, Yeoh, Deadwyler, Williams, Davis, and Robbie and I think the five eventual Oscar Actress nominees will come from this six. The question is which one of these six will miss. Past history implies that a Globe nod is usually required to be nominated for an Oscar in this category later on (the last time a Best Actress nominee was nominated without a Globe nod was Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years), which would mean Davis and Robbie receiving nominations as Deadwyler was snubbed by the Globes. If Robbie receives a SAG nom I don’t see her missing but until then I’ll stick with Davis and Deadwyler. 

    The biggest mystery with this category is who will end up triumphing between Blanchett and Yeoh. Both are phenomenal and completely deserving. I think Yeoh has the zeitgeist but I feel like Blanchett is responsible for a performance that I believe is more like what Oscar usually rewards in this category. I am going to with Blanchett for now, but I think Yeoh has a 49% chance of winning this at this point, we need the precursors to be sure. 

    BEST ACTRESS 

    Cate Blanchett – Tar – CCA, GG (Drama) 

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical) 

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – CCA, GG (Drama) 

    Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA 

    Viola Davis – The Woman King – CCA, GG (Drama) 

    Could Jump In: Margot Robbie – Babylon – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Olivia Colman – Empire of Light – GG (Drama), Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG (Drama), Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande – GG (Comedy/Musical), Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway 

    At least three of the Globe nominees will be nominated for the Oscar (most likely) and at least four of the Critics Choice nominees will be nominated for the Oscar. Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are locked as they’ve hit the most precursors by far. Even though Paul Dano surprisingly missed at the Globes, I think he’s pretty much locked as well. I have a feeling either Keoghan or Hirsch (but not both) will be nominated and since Keoghan made both GG and CCA, he seems most poised to be nominated. Whishaw’s role seems like one that is often nominated here and if he gets a SAG nod, he should follow that up with a nod from Oscar as well, but he needs that SAG nod if he even wants that to be a consideration. 

    Though Gleeson has a pretty solid shot at winning this, Quan has won the most critics’ awards by a wide margin and being in what is presumed to be this year’s Best Picture winner can’t hurt him. 

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA 

    Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA 

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA 

    Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA 

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking 

    Could Jump In: Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans – CCA, Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA, Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness, Michael Ward – Empire of Light 

    This is one of the hardest major categories to predict at this point as everything feels so up-in-the-air and no performance seems safe for a nomination except for Kerry Condon. Having watched The Banshees of Inisherin, I can confirm that Condon is fantastic but I’m really not sure her performance is of the kind that the academy likes to award in this category. However, none of the biggest contenders have a performance that traditionally would win in this category, meaning that Condon will be my pick to win it for now (If Michelle Williams was category frauded and entered into Supporting she would’ve taken this easily).  

    Hsu, Curtis, and Buckley are all in likely Best Picture nominees so I’ll go with them as the next three. That leaves the last slot between Chau, Monae, Foy, Mulligan, and Bassett. I don’t see Women Talking getting two of its actresses in so that leaves out Foy. Even though she’s done very well at the precursors I still don’t see a superhero performance getting nominated even if Bassett is deserving. While Monae and Chau are doing very well with the critics’ groups, I think I’m going to go with the twice-nominated Mulligan to receive her third.  

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

    Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG 

    Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking 

    Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG 

    Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG 

    Could Jump In:  Janelle Monae – Glass Onion, Hong Chau – The Whale, Claire Foy – Women Talking, Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, Nina Hoss – Tar, Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King 

    Either 4 or 5 of the Critics Choice nominees in this category have been nominated for the O. Screenplay Oscar in this category. The first four seem almost locked and the last slot is really between Triangle of Sadness, Aftersun, and Babylon. I’ll go with Cannes winner Triangle of Sadness as it has been giving attention in other categories such as Director and Supporting Actress and this seems like the best place for the fans of the film in the Academy to award it.  

    While I think Everything Everywhere All at Once will take this if Spielberg ends up winning Director, McDonagh has won the most critics awards so far and I give him a 50.1% chance of taking this.  

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

    The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA 

    The Fabelmans – GG, CCA 

    Tar – GG, CCA 

    Triangle of Sadness 

    Could Jump In: Aftersun – CCA, Babylon, The Menu, Elvis, Nope 

    Women Talking is most likely going to take this and I think Polley’s screenplay and Glass Onion are pretty much locked here for nominations. Living is a screenplay written by legendary author Kazuo Ichiguro adapting one of the most important films of the 50s: Kurosawa’s Ikiru. If that’s not screenplay branch bait, I don’t know what is. White Noise is Noah Baumbach’s adaptation of the seminal Don DeLillo novel and I think it has a great chance of being a spoiler contender come nominations morning. 

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

    Women Talking – GG, CCA 

    Glass Onion – CCA 

    The Whale – CCA 

    Living – CCA 

    White Noise 

    Could Jump In: She Said – CCA, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Son, Bones and All 

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

    Pinocchio – GG, CCA 

    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – GG, CCA 

    Turning Red – GG, CCA 

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – GG, CCA 

    Apollo 10 1/2 

    Could Jump In: Wendell & Wild – CCA, My Father’s Dragon, Strange World, Inu-Oh – GG, Apollo 10 ½, Lightyear 

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

    Babylon – CCA 

    The Fabelmans – CCA 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA 

    Avatar 2 – CCA 

    Could Jump In: Glass Onion, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, All Quiet on the Western Front 

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA 

    Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA 

    The Fabelmans – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    Empire of Light – CCA 

    Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tar – CCA  

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA 

    The Woman King – CCA 

    Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris 

    Could Jump In: Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion – CCA, Living 

    BEST FILM EDITING 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    The Fabelmans 

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2 – CCA, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar – CCA 

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

    The Whale – CCA 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    The Batman – CCA 

    All Quiet on the Western Front 

    Could Jump In: Black Panther 2 – CCA, Blonde, Crimes of the Future 

    BEST SOUND 

    Top Gun: Maverick 

    Avatar 2 

    Elvis 

    All Quiet on the Western Front 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    Could Jump In: Babylon, The Batman, Black Panther 2 

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

    Avatar 2 – CCA 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA 

    The Batman – CCA 

    Nope 

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange 2, All Quiet on the Western Front, Jurassic World: Dominion 

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

    The Fabelmans – GG, CCA 

    Babylon – GG, CCA 

    Women Talking – GG, CCA 

    Pinocchio – GG, CCA 

    The Banshees of Inisherin – GG 

    Could Jump In: The Woman King, Black Panther 2, All Quiet on the Western Front 

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

    RRR – CCA, GG 

    Pinocchio – CCA, GG 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA, GG 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, GG 

    Where the Crawdads Sing – CCA, GG 

    Could Jump In: Till, Tell it Like a Woman, White Noise – CCA (My favorite by far!) 

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE 

    Decision to Leave – CCA, GG 

    All Quiet on the Western Front – GG 

    Close – CCA, GG 

    Argentina, 1985 – CCA, GG 

    Saint Omer 

    Could Jump In: Bardo – CCA, EO, Return to Seoul, Holy Spider, Corsage 

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed 

    Fire of Love 

    All That Breathes 

    Navalny 

    Descendant 

    Could Jump In: The Territory, Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe, The Janes 

  • 2023 Oscars: Late June Predictions

    2023 Oscars: Late June Predictions

    Since my last predictions there have been a couple of major developments. Firstly, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things featuring Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, and Willem Dafoe (among others) was moved by Searchlight to 2023. Other than being a vehicle for Stone and a possible Picture contender, Lanthimos’ film will undoubtedly be a major tech player when it releases in 2023. There have also been a couple of new releases since late May, most notably, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick. Elvis currently has a 64 Metascore and a 7.8 on IMDb signaling to me that it is a music biopic that does have a chance to get a Picture nod yet needs a few of the contenders to be knocked off for Baz Luhrmann’s film to be considered locked. Other than being a major player for its young star Austin Butler, Elvis, like most Luhrmann films, should perform well with the techs (specifically in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). Top Gun: Maverick quickly became the biggest movie of the year and with its 78 Metascore and 8.6 rating on IMDb, one of the year’s most beloved as well. Now, some people think the film will get a Best Picture nod. But I don’t think so and believe its peak is a Star Wars: The Force Awakens trajectory: a massive blockbuster that missed Picture and all above-the-line categories but took an Editing nod. Joseph Kosinski’s film is definitely the kind of film that can win sound and editing if Elvis, Babylon, or Everything Everywhere All at Once can’t get those inevitably paired awards for themselves.

    Other than these developments, nothing much has changed as Killers of the Flower Moon, The Fabelmans, Babylon, and Everything Everywhere All At Once are the remaining films most locked for a Picture nod. The latter film has stayed strong since its April release and its popularity shows no signs of stopping. This is the kind of momentum that I think can last the whole season and can likely help the film nab one above-the-line category win (like when the February released Get Out won Original Screenplay) or maybe propel the film to undeniable future Picture winner status.

    Anyways, here are the predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Women Talking (MGM)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

    Empire of Light (Searchlight)

    She Said (Universal)

    White Noise (Netflix)

    The Son (Sony Classics)

    Bardo (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Elvis, Shirley, Next Goal Wins, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar 2, The Whale, Thirteen Lives, Rustin, Maestro, Decision to Leave, Tar, The Banshees of Inisherin, Amsterdam, Asteroid City, Till, Close, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Damien Chazelle – Babylon

    Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Hugh Jackman – The Son

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Could Jump In: Adam Driver – White Noise, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Margot Robbie – Babylon

    Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Regina King – Shirley

    Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

    Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Carey Mulligan – She Said, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Helen Mirren – Golda, Danielle Deadwyler – Till, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Brad Pitt – Babylon

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Laura Dern – The Son

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

    Jean Smart – Babylon

    Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Hong Chau – The Whale, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Everything Everywhere All At Once

    The Fabelmans

    Empire of Light

    Babylon

    Bardo

    Could Jump In: Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Women Talking

    White Noise

    She Said

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Son

    Could Jump In: The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Pinocchio

    Turning Red

    Wendell and Wild

    Lightyear

    Apollo 10 ½

    Could Jump In: The Bad Guys

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Amsterdam

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City, Empire of Light

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Babylon

    Empire of Light

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City, Bardo

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Amsterdam

    Don’t Worry, Darling

    Elvis

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Jump In: Persuasion, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Blonde

    Could Jump In: The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon

     

    BEST SOUND

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Avatar II

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Thor: Love and Thunder

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Jurassic World: Dominion

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Fabelmans

    The Batman

    Babylon

    She Said

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Bardo

    Decision to Leave

    Close

    Broker

    Triangle of Sadness

    Could Jump In: Holy Spider, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita

  • 2023 Oscars: Late May Predictions

    2023 Oscars: Late May Predictions

    Cannes just finished up with Ruben Ostlund’s Triangle of Sadness shocking the world and taking the Palme D’Or. While I doubt this will have any effect on the Oscar race, I believe that at least one film that premiered at Cannes will make it into the Best Picture that is something international like Decision to Leave or a major studio film that premiered out of competition like Elvis. Elvis could go the Bohemian Rhapsody route in that it’s a popular yet not too critically-acclaimed music biopic with a lauded central performance I personally don’t think that Elvis will be the juggernaut Bohemian Rhapsody was, but the film should nab noms for Austin Butler and in some below-the-line categories.

    So what are this year’s frontrunners? The consensus picks seem to be Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, and Damien Chazelle’s Babylon. If these films are released this year they are essentially guaranteed Best Picture nominations in my mind. Of these films, Scorsese’s effort seems to me the most likely winner. It’s a drama centering on an FBI investigation of murders of members of the Osage tribe in the 1920s. It’s a Scorsese film so it’s almost guaranteed to be critically-acclaimed and it has the social relevance factor through its likely examination of themes such as racism and American expansionism. Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All at Once are, to me, the films I am most confident about rounding out the top five of the Best Picture race.

    (A little digression about Everything Everywhere All at Once which I’ve now seen twice in theaters:

    Coming into the film I heard many people comparing it to Marvel movies and to martial arts films, which piqued my interest since when has an A24 film ever been compared to anything made by Marvel? Still, the comparison that captured my mind the most was one where the film was said to be like “It’s a Wonderful Life”. It’s a connection that, on the surface, seems completely absurd. How can the first movie you think of when you see a colorful action film centering on a multiverse be a black-and-white drama from the 1940s? It’s a Wonderful Life is one of my absolute favorite films so I was excited to see this comparison come to life and, after watching it, it’s absolutely justified.

    On the most obvious level, both films use a sci-fi conceit to reveal universal truths about the importance of love: It’s a Wonderful Life with the idea of seeing what the world would be like if you’ve never existed and Everything Everywhere All at Once with the idea of seeing what your life would be like if you made different decisions through the medium of a multiverse. Both films illustrate the beauty of human connection in an immensely profound way. Both are incredibly life-affirming experiences that somehow reach their audiences in their cores and allow them to feel the importance of the seemingly mundane. They’re both films that love their audience and are incredibly humanist works that call for love and unity. But, most importantly of all to me, they’re both remarkably sincere films. Themes, messages, moments, and pieces of dialogue that would seem overly-saccharine, unearned, trite, or corny in other films don’t come off as such in these due to their utter honesty. You’d might think with the fantastical moments that both of these films have they wouldn’t reach their audiences as powerfully as they do, but I’d argue that they reach their audiences so profoundly due to those premises. I won’t elaborate further into that for obvious reasons, but the films’ premises are an instrumental aspect of what make them as powerful as they are. To me, no moment in these films come off as overwrought due to many elements especially the acting and storytelling. You feel for these characters and it’s obvious that the filmmakers love their characters as well, even with all their shortcomings and mistakes.)

    Netflix has a massive slate this year but none seem like sure things. The streamer has Noah Baumbach’s White Noise and Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, two civil rights biopics in Shirley and Rustin, and also David Fincher’s The Killer and Tobias Lindholm’s The Good Nurse. Seeing what they prioritize will be one of the biggest questions for the studio that still hasn’t won a Best Picture Oscar.

    Anyways, here are my predictions for May and my first predictions for the 2023 Oscars:

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)

    Women Talking (MGM)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    White Noise (Netflix)

    She Said (Universal)

    Empire of Light (Searchlight)

    Thirteen Lives (MGM)

    Rustin (Netflix)

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

     

    Could Jump In:

    Amsterdam (20th Century)

    Bardo (N/A)

    Elvis (Warner Bros.)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Shirley (Netflix)

    Decision to Leave (MUBI)

    Don’t Worry, Darling (Warner Bros.)

    Till (UA/MGM)

    Asteroid City (N/A)

    Armageddon Time (Focus)

    Avatar 2 (20th Century)

    Napoleon (Apple)

    The Son (Sony Classics)

    The Woman King (Sony)

    The Good Nurse (Netflix)

    The Killer (Netflix)

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)

    Nope (Universal)

    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM)

    The Greatest Beer Run Ever

    I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony)

    Tar (Focus)

    Disappointment Blvd. (A24)

    Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)

    The Lost King (N/A)

    Bones and All

    The Whale (A24)

    Longer Shots:

    Emancipation

    Broker (N/A)

    Holy Spider (N/A)

    RMN (N/A)

    Alcarras (MK2)

    The Wonder (Netflix)

    Crimes of the Future (Neon)

    Iao Capitano (01 Distribution)

    Monica (N/A)

    Rheingold (N/A)

    Showing Up (A24)

    The Way of the Wind (N/A)

    Tori and Lokita (N/A)

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Damien Chazelle – Babylon

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Adam Driver – White Noise

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Could Jump In: Hugh Jackman – The Son, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Joaquin Phoenix – Disappointment Blvd., Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody

    Carey Mulligan – She Said

    Margot Robbie – Babylon

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

    Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Regina King – Shirley, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Helen Mirren – Golda, Emma Thompson – Good Luck, Leo Grande, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Brad Pitt – Babylon

    Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

    Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon, Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Jean Smart – Babylon

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Laura Dern – The Son

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

    Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Hong Chau – The Whale, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Empire of Light

    Babylon

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Bardo, Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    White Noise

    Women Talking

    She Said

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: The Son, The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Lightyear

    Turning Red

    Wendell and Wild

    Pinocchio

    The Bad Guys

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Poor Things

    Amsterdam

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Elvis, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Babylon

    Empire of Light

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Elvis, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Poor Things

    Amsterdam

    Don’t Worry, Darling

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Elvis

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: Blonde, The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon

     

    BEST SOUND

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Thor: Love and Thunder

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Jurassic World: Dominion

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Fabelmans

    The Batman

    Babylon

    She Said

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Bardo

    Decision to Leave

    Close

    Triangle of Sadness

    Holy Spider

    Could Jump In: Broker, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita

  • Oscars 2022: ‘CODA’ Wins Best Picture

    Oscars 2022: ‘CODA’ Wins Best Picture

    It was a simultaneously crazy and unsurprising night. Will Smith punched Chris Rock live on television yet the favorite won in any every category except for Best Animated Short (where The Windshield Wiper beat out Robin Robin and Bestia). Anyway, this was the end of an exciting season that will definitely significantly affect the way I personally pick Best Picture. Also, my predictions were 15/9498 on GoldDerby’s rankings so I’m pretty proud of that as well.

    Well, when one season ends another one begins so look out for my first 2023 predictions next month!

    Here were tonight’s winners:

    BEST PICTURE

    Belfast (Focus Features) Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers

    CODA (Apple Original Films) Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix) Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers

    Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films)Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer

    Dune (Warner Bros) Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers

    King Richard (Warner Bros) Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers

    Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix) Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers

    West Side Story (20th Century Studios) Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Belfast – Kenneth Branagh

    Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi

    Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson

    The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion – WINNER

    West Side Story – Steven Spielberg

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

    Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos

    Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

    Andrew Garfield in tick, tick…BOOM!

    Will Smith in King Richard – WINNER

    Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

    Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye – WINNER

    Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter

    Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers

    Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos

    Kristen Stewart in Spencer

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

    Ciarán Hinds in Belfast

    Troy Kotsur in CODA – WINNER

    Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog

    J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos

    Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

    Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter

    Ariana DeBose in West Side Story – WINNER

    Judi Dench in Belfast

    Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog

    Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

    CODA – Screenplay by Siân Heder – WINNER

    Drive My Car – Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe

    Dune – Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth

    The Lost Daughter – Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal

    The Power of the Dog – Written by Jane Campion

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

    Belfast – Written by Kenneth Branagh – WINNER

    Don’t Look Up – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota

    King Richard – Written by Zach Baylin

    Licorice Pizza – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson

    The Worst Person in the World – Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

    FILM EDITING

    Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin

    Dune – Joe Walker – WINNER

    King Richard – Pamela Martin

    The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras

    tick, tick…BOOM! – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

    CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune – Greig Fraser – WINNER

    Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen

    The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner

    The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel

    West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Dune – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos – WINNER

    Nightmare Alley – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

    The Power of the Dog – Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards

    The Tragedy of Macbeth – Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

    West Side Story – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

    COSTUME DESIGN

    Cruella – Jenny Beavan – WINNER

    Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran

    Dune – Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan

    Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira

    West Side Story – Paul Tazewell

    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

    Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell

    Dune – Hans Zimmer – WINNER

    Encanto – Germaine Franco

    Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias

    The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

    “Be Alive” from King Richard
    Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter

    “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
    Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda

    “Down To Joy” from Belfast
    Music and Lyric by Van Morrison

    “No Time To Die” from No Time to Die – WINNER
    Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

    “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
    Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

    SOUND

    Belfast – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri

    Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett – WINNER

    No Time to Die – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor

    The Power of the Dog – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb

    West Side Story – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Coming 2 America – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer

    Cruella – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon

    Dune – Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh – WINNER

    House of Gucci – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer – WINNER

    Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick

    No Time to Die – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver

    Spider-Man: No Way Home – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

    Encanto – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer – WINNER

    Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie

    Luca – Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht

    Raya and the Last Dragon – Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Ascension – Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell

    Attica – Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry

    Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie

    Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein – WINNER

    Writing with Fire – Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Drive My Car (Japan)

    Flee (Denmark)

    The Hand of God (Italy)

    Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

    The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

    ANIMATED SHORT

    Affairs of the Art – Joanna Quinn and Les Mills

    Bestia – Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz

    Boxballet – Anton Dyakov

    Robin Robin – Dan Ojari and Mikey Please

    The Windshield Wiper – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez – WINNER

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

    Audible – Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean

    Lead Me Home – Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk

    The Queen of Basketball – Ben Proudfoot – WINNER

    Three Songs for Benazir – Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei

    When We Were Bullies – Jay Rosenblatt

    LIVE ACTION SHORT

    Ala Kachuu – Take and Run Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger

    The Dress – Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki

    The Long Goodbye – Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed – WINNER

    On My Mind – Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson

    Please Hold – K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse

     

    Source: AwardsWatch

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    2021 – Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, WGA, CCA

    2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

    2019 – Green Book – GG

    2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

    2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

    2015 – Birdman – GG

    2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

    2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

    2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

    As much as I want Paul Thomas Anderson to win his first Oscar here and as much as I think there is a desire to reward him here, I think Belfast will just edge it out. The Academy often awards Picture nominees that they like yet don’t award anywhere else in the Screenplay categories. Unfortunately, that description applies to Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up. All of these films are very much driven by their screenplays so I believe the biggest Best Picture contender will prevail in the end and I think that means this award is between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. As exemplified by past winners in this category, Best Original Screenplays either have high-concept loglines (Promising Young Woman, Parasite, Get Out, Her, Django Unchained, and Midnight in Paris), are serious and melancholic realist dramas (Manchester by the Sea and Spotlight), or win Best Picture (Parasite, Green Book, Spotlight, and Birdman). Don’t Look Up fits the first category and Belfast somewhat fits the second, while Licorice Pizza doesn’t fit any. In the end, I’m going to go with Belfast since, in addition to it getting nominations in Picture, Director, and Screenplay like Licorice Pizza, it also has nominations in Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Sound, and Original Song, implying to me that it has more support than PTA’s film.

    Nominees:

    Belfast – GG, CCA

    Licorice Pizza – BAFTA

    Don’t Look Up – WGA

    The Worst Person in the World

    King Richard

    Pick: Belfast

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    CODA obviously has so much love right now with the PGA, WGA, and SAG wins it has accrued. Still, it has only been nominated for 3 Oscars and while I’m not sure if it has what it needs to earn Picture, I think people will vote for it in Adapted Screenplay. If CODA wins Best Picture it will undoubtedly take this as well (CODA can’t win Picture without a win here as well) but I think that the film taking this doesn’t necessarily mean that it will win Best Picture. Anyways, it fits the kind of populist-leaning fare (Jojo Rabbit, The Imitation Game) that have won here in the past. The Power of the Dog still has the ability to win here but it’s very unlikely that the film gets Adapted Screenplay and Director, and not Picture or all three.

    Nominees: 

    CODA – BAFTA, WGA

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    Drive My Car

    The Lost Daughter – USC

    Dune

    Pick: CODA

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    How I hate to predict these categories. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. One thing that seems to be constant is that these shorts should have the power to linger past the moment the credits roll. I think The Long Goodbye, like Skin and Two Distant Strangers before it, has that visceral quality and it doesn’t hurt that a big name is behind it (Riz Ahmed). Please Hold, Ala Kachuu – Take and Run, and The Dress also have chances to steal as well.

    Nominees:

    The Long Goodbye

    Ala Kachuu – Take and Run

    Please Hold

    The Dress

    On My Mind

    Pick: The Long Goodbye

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    In the last 10 years, the longest winner in this category was 15 minutes (The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lesmore in 2011) and this year’s frontrunner, Robin Robin, is 32 minutes long. However, I think Robin Robin should be able to win this since it’s family-friendly like most of the last decade’s 10 winners here. Still, Robin Robin’s length does decrease the film’s chances somewhat and Bestia, the most visceral of the films here, has a very good chance to steal and I would pick it if it wasn’t for the big names behind Robin Robin and the fact that I think voters often namecheck people they recognize without watching the films in categories like the shorts.

    Nominees:

    Robin Robin

    Bestia

    The Windshield Wiper

    Affairs of the Art

    BoxBallet

    Pick: Robin Robin

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Three Songs for Benazir fits the mold of many previous winners in this category (specifically Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone and The White Helmets) since it’s also a short film taking place in an Asian warzone. However, I think The Queen of Basketball, with Shaquille O’Neal and Stephen Curry behind it, will win. It’s the film with the most clout behind it and while that oftentimes doesn’t mean anything in these categories, the film also has the highest IMDb score of the three top nominees (Audible – 6.7, ‘Benazir’ – 6.2, and ‘Basketball’ – 7.1) which is more significant of an indicator.

    Nominees:

    The Queen of Basketball

    Three Songs for Benazir

    Audible

    When We Were Bullies

    Lead Me Home

    Pick: The Queen of Basketball