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  • Critics Choice Nominations: ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ Leads With 14, ‘She Said’ Misses in All but Screenplay

    Critics Choice Nominations: ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ Leads With 14, ‘She Said’ Misses in All but Screenplay

    With the Critics Choice Awards coming through with their nominations this morning, we now have the penultimate piece of the puzzle (other than the Producers Guild Awards which will release on January 12th) when it comes to the Best Picture nomination slate. At this point, ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’, ‘The Fabelmans’, ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’, ‘Tar’, ‘Babylon’, ‘Women Talking’, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’, and ‘Elvis’ are all essentially locked for nominations. ‘Glass Onion’, ‘Avatar’, and ‘RRR’ were also given nods, while other films on the cusp like ‘She Said, ‘The Woman King’, ‘Till’, ‘The Whale’ and ‘Triangle of Sadness’ missed the cut. In my eyes, ‘She Said’, a film that I had predicted for a Best Picture nod up to this point, now needs a PGA nod to stay in the slate. At this point, my picks for which films will fill the remaining two slots in Best Picture are ‘Avatar: The Way of the Water’ and ‘RRR’ (though Aftersun also has a pretty good chance of taking this tenth slot).

    Here are Critics Choice’s nominees:

    BEST PICTURE

    “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    “Babylon”
    “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    “Elvis”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    “The Fabelmans”
    “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
    “RRR”
    “Tár”
    “Top Gun: Maverick”
    “Women Talking”

    BEST ACTOR

    Austin Butler – “Elvis”
    Tom Cruise – “Top Gun: Maverick”
    Colin Farrell – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”
    Paul Mescal – “Aftersun”
    Bill Nighy – “Living”

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – “Tár”
    Viola Davis – “The Woman King”
    Danielle Deadwyler – “Till”
    Margot Robbie – “Babylon”
    Michelle Williams – “The Fabelmans”
    Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – “The Fabelmans”
    Brendan Gleeson – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Judd Hirsch – “The Fabelmans”
    Barry Keoghan – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Brian Tyree Henry – “Causeway”

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Angela Bassett – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    Jessie Buckley – “Women Talking”
    Kerry Condon – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Stephanie Hsu – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Janelle Monáe – “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

    BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

    Frankie Corio – “Aftersun”
    Jalyn Hall – “Till”
    Gabriel LaBelle – “The Fabelmans”
    Bella Ramsey – “Catherine Called Birdy”
    Banks Repeta – “Armageddon Time”
    Sadie Sink – “The Whale”

    BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

    “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    “The Fabelmans”
    “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
    “The Woman King”
    “Women Talking”

    BEST DIRECTOR

    James Cameron – “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    Damien Chazelle – “Babylon”
    Todd Field – “Tár”
    Baz Luhrmann – “Elvis”
    Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Martin McDonagh – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Sarah Polley – “Women Talking”
    Gina Prince-Bythewood – “The Woman King”
    S. S. Rajamouli – “RRR”
    Steven Spielberg – “The Fabelmans”

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Todd Field – “Tár”
    Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Martin McDonagh – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner – “The Fabelmans”
    Charlotte Wells – “Aftersun”

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Samuel D. Hunter – “The Whale”
    Kazuo Ishiguro – “Living”
    Rian Johnson – “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
    Rebecca Lenkiewicz – “She Said”
    Sarah Polley – “Women Talking”

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Russell Carpenter – “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    Roger Deakins – “Empire of Light”
    Florian Hoffmeister – “Tár”
    Janusz Kaminski – “The Fabelmans”
    Claudio Miranda – “Top Gun: Maverick”
    Linus Sandgren – “Babylon”

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Hannah Beachler, Lisa K. Sessions – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    Rick Carter, Karen O’Hara – “The Fabelmans”
    Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, Vanessa Cole – “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    Jason Kisvarday, Kelsi Ephraim – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn – “Elvis”
    Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino – “Babylon”

    BEST EDITING

    Tom Cross – “Babylon”
    Eddie Hamilton – “Top Gun: Maverick”
    Stephen Rivkin, David Brenner, John Refoua, James Cameron – “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    Paul Rogers – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Matt Villa, Jonathan Redmond – “Elvis”
    Monika Willi – “Tár”

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ruth E. Carter – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    Jenny Eagan – “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
    Shirley Kurata – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Catherine Martin – “Elvis”
    Gersha Phillips – “The Woman King”
    Mary Zophres – “Babylon”

    BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

    “Babylon”
    “The Batman”
    “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    “Elvis”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    “The Whale”

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    “The Batman”
    “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    “RRR”
    “Top Gun: Maverick”

    BEST COMEDY

    “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    “Bros”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
    “Triangle of Sadness”
    “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
    “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
    “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
    “Turning Red”
    “Wendell & Wild”

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

    “All Quiet on the Western Front”
    “Argentina, 1985”
    “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
    “Close”
    “Decision to Leave”
    “RRR”

    BEST SONG

    “Carolina” – “Where the Crawdads Sing”
    “Ciao Papa” – “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
    “Hold My Hand” – “Top Gun: Maverick”
    “Lift Me Up” – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    “Naatu Naatu” – “RRR”
    “New Body Rhumba” – “White Noise”

    BEST SCORE

    Alexandre Desplat – “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
    Michael Giacchino – “The Batman”
    Hildur Guðnadóttir – “Tár”
    Hildur Guðnadóttir – “Women Talking”
    Justin Hurwitz – “Babylon”
    John Williams – “The Fabelmans”

  • Everything Everywhere All at Once Will Win Best Picture

    Everything Everywhere All at Once Will Win Best Picture

    Since 2015, when Todd McCarthy’s Spotlight won Best Picture, there has been a constant among the films the Academy has awarded with their highest honor: a sociocultural awareness. This is not to say the Academy’s desire to choose a socially aware film to represent what they believe to be the best of the year is new, far from it. In 1968, a famously landmark year for American political activism that saw major leaps in the public consciousness’ awareness of movements promoting anti-war sentiment, civil rights, women’s rights, LGBTQ rights, etc., the Sidney Poitier-starring In the Heat of the Night was declared the Academy’s winner. It’s no accident that a film featuring a white and Black man working together to solve a murder case in a racist contemporary Mississippi town won in a year where societal cognizance about injustices towards minority and marginalized groups was at a peak. All of this is to say that when political passion is at a high, Academy members do tend to lean towards media that they feel reflects and/or represents the sociocultural awareness they want to see.  

    Now for almost a decade, American culture has experienced an incredible amount of political passion and polarization and while this politicization has seen highs and lows during this timeframe, it has consistently been higher during this period than it has been in around 50 years. What this means is that the Academy choosing films like Spotlight (a film that celebrates journalists by telling the story of the intrepid Boston Globe reporters who uncovered widespread sex abuse among clergy in the Boston area), Moonlight (a coming-of-age story charting the early life of a young gay, Black man dealing with his identity), The Shape of Water (a love story between a deaf woman and a fish man, conveying the message that everybody deserves love no matter how different they seem), Green Book (a buddy film telling the story of an Italian-American bouncer hired to drive an African-American pianist on his tour of the South), Parasite (an examination of class discrimination through the lens of a home invasion thriller), Nomadland (a film that tells the story of a woman who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, becomes a nomad), and CODA (the story of a deaf family and their daughter who works to pursue her passion for music) is telling. Now I don’t enjoy reducing these films to these short descriptions because the majority of them are fantastic works of art that transcend these easy attempts to identify what they’re about, but I only hope to illustrate that they all share a level of consciousness over contemporary sociocultural issues. 

    This trend shows no signs of stopping anytime soon and therefore we must consider this factor when prognosticating our Best Picture winner. At this point in the season, we’ve established that our three frontrunners are Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and The Banshees of Inisherin. These films have appeared at all the major precursors, they all have the Golden Globe nomination trifecta, and have found success with the critics’ groups. However, in my eyes, Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the pack. Both The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin don’t explicitly deal with any major sociocultural dilemma while EEAAO tackles themes of generational trauma and the experiences of immigrants (and their children) in America. On top of that, the film is probably one of the biggest word-of-mouth successes of the year and has sustained its momentum all the way from its original theatrical release in March. 

    Some may say that the old guard of the Academy won’t go for a film as wacky, deeply genre, and/or crude as EEAAO. But if the success of films like The Shape of Water, Get Out, and Parasite have shown anything it’s that these elements are not as much of a detriment in the eyes of the Academy as they used to be. If a film is beloved enough, which EEAAO most definitely is, it forgoes the need to conform to many of the traditional markings of a Best Picture winner. In my view, the film has the perfect cocktail of qualities on its side and doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon. Don’t be surprised to see the Daniels and the rest of their team on the stage waving that little gold man at the end of Oscar night. 

  • National Board of Review Releases Their Top 10; ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Named Best Film

    National Board of Review Releases Their Top 10; ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Named Best Film

    ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ won its first major award and the second major critics award of the year (after Tar won NYFCC on December 2nd). Claudio Miranda also picked up his second major cinematography prize after starting the season by triumphing at NYFCC. Both my top frontrunners (Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans) both made the cut, cementing their place as the top of this year’s contenders.

    The Banshees of Inisherin also performed well, winning for both its stars Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson (in Best Actor and Supporting Actor respectively) and in Original Screenplay. ‘Banshees’, along with Women Talking and NYFCC winner Tar (which did not make the cut here) round out the top five strongest players.

    NBR is our first semi-strong predictor of the Best Picture nominee slate, here is its track record in the past 10 years:

    2012 — 7/9
    2013 — 5/9
    2014 — 4/8
    2015 — 5/8
    2016 — 7/9
    2017 — 6/9 (The Shape of Water was not picked by the NBR)
    2018 — 4/8
    2019 — 6/9 (Parasite won Best Foreign Language Film)
    2020 — 5/8                                                                                                                                                                                       2021 – 7/10

    Also, in the last 10 years every eventual Best Picture winner except for The Shape of Water in 2017 was a member of the NBR’s Top 10 Films, which makes it seem very likely that the eventual Best Picture winner from this year will one of the 10 films chosen by the NBR.

    Here are the National Board of Review’s 2022 honorees:

    Best Film
    Top Gun: Maverick

    Best Director
    Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

    Best Actor
    Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Actress
    Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Best Supporting Actor
    Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Supporting Actress
    Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

    Best Original Screenplay
    Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front

    Breakthrough Performance
    Danielle Deadwyler, Till

    Breakthrough Performance
    Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

    Best Directorial Debut
    Charlotte Wells, Aftersun

    Best Animated Feature
    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

    Best International Film
    Close

    Best Documentary
    Sr.

    Best Ensemble
    Women Talking

    Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography
    Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick

    NBR Freedom of Expression Awards

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    Argentina, 1985

    Top Films (in alphabetical order):

    Aftersun

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Fabelmans

    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

    RRR

    Till

    The Woman King

    Women Talking

    Top 5 International Films (in alphabetical order)

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Argentina, 1985

    Decision to Leave

    EO

    Saint Omer

    Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    All That Breathes

    Descendant

    Turn Every Page – The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb

    Wildcat

    Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)

    Armageddon Time

    Emily the Criminal

    The Eternal Daughter

    Funny Pages

    The Inspection

    Living

    A Love Song

    Nanny

    The Wonder

    To Leslie

    Source: Deadline

     

    Based on NBR’s track record, we can assume that it’s pretty likely that at least 6 of the 11 films picked by NBR will go on to become Best Picture nominees. In my mind, this is the list of NBR’s top eleven films in order of their likelihood to get a BP nomination: Everything Everywhere All at Once (my predicted winner at this stage), The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking, Top Gun: Maverick, Glass Onion, Till, Aftersun, The Woman King, Avatar: The Way of the Water, RRR.

    With AFI coming out with its list tomorrow, Oscar season is truly coming into full swing!

  • 2023 Oscars: Late June Predictions

    2023 Oscars: Late June Predictions

    Since my last predictions there have been a couple of major developments. Firstly, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things featuring Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, and Willem Dafoe (among others) was moved by Searchlight to 2023. Other than being a vehicle for Stone and a possible Picture contender, Lanthimos’ film will undoubtedly be a major tech player when it releases in 2023. There have also been a couple of new releases since late May, most notably, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick. Elvis currently has a 64 Metascore and a 7.8 on IMDb signaling to me that it is a music biopic that does have a chance to get a Picture nod yet needs a few of the contenders to be knocked off for Baz Luhrmann’s film to be considered locked. Other than being a major player for its young star Austin Butler, Elvis, like most Luhrmann films, should perform well with the techs (specifically in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). Top Gun: Maverick quickly became the biggest movie of the year and with its 78 Metascore and 8.6 rating on IMDb, one of the year’s most beloved as well. Now, some people think the film will get a Best Picture nod. But I don’t think so and believe its peak is a Star Wars: The Force Awakens trajectory: a massive blockbuster that missed Picture and all above-the-line categories but took an Editing nod. Joseph Kosinski’s film is definitely the kind of film that can win sound and editing if Elvis, Babylon, or Everything Everywhere All at Once can’t get those inevitably paired awards for themselves.

    Other than these developments, nothing much has changed as Killers of the Flower Moon, The Fabelmans, Babylon, and Everything Everywhere All At Once are the remaining films most locked for a Picture nod. The latter film has stayed strong since its April release and its popularity shows no signs of stopping. This is the kind of momentum that I think can last the whole season and can likely help the film nab one above-the-line category win (like when the February released Get Out won Original Screenplay) or maybe propel the film to undeniable future Picture winner status.

    Anyways, here are the predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Women Talking (MGM)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

    Empire of Light (Searchlight)

    She Said (Universal)

    White Noise (Netflix)

    The Son (Sony Classics)

    Bardo (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Elvis, Shirley, Next Goal Wins, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar 2, The Whale, Thirteen Lives, Rustin, Maestro, Decision to Leave, Tar, The Banshees of Inisherin, Amsterdam, Asteroid City, Till, Close, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Damien Chazelle – Babylon

    Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Hugh Jackman – The Son

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Could Jump In: Adam Driver – White Noise, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Margot Robbie – Babylon

    Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Regina King – Shirley

    Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

    Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Carey Mulligan – She Said, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Helen Mirren – Golda, Danielle Deadwyler – Till, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Brad Pitt – Babylon

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Laura Dern – The Son

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

    Jean Smart – Babylon

    Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Hong Chau – The Whale, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Everything Everywhere All At Once

    The Fabelmans

    Empire of Light

    Babylon

    Bardo

    Could Jump In: Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Women Talking

    White Noise

    She Said

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Son

    Could Jump In: The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Pinocchio

    Turning Red

    Wendell and Wild

    Lightyear

    Apollo 10 ½

    Could Jump In: The Bad Guys

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Amsterdam

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City, Empire of Light

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Babylon

    Empire of Light

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City, Bardo

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Amsterdam

    Don’t Worry, Darling

    Elvis

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Jump In: Persuasion, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Blonde

    Could Jump In: The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon

     

    BEST SOUND

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Avatar II

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Thor: Love and Thunder

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Jurassic World: Dominion

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Fabelmans

    The Batman

    Babylon

    She Said

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Bardo

    Decision to Leave

    Close

    Broker

    Triangle of Sadness

    Could Jump In: Holy Spider, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita

  • 2023 Oscars: Late May Predictions

    2023 Oscars: Late May Predictions

    Cannes just finished up with Ruben Ostlund’s Triangle of Sadness shocking the world and taking the Palme D’Or. While I doubt this will have any effect on the Oscar race, I believe that at least one film that premiered at Cannes will make it into the Best Picture that is something international like Decision to Leave or a major studio film that premiered out of competition like Elvis. Elvis could go the Bohemian Rhapsody route in that it’s a popular yet not too critically-acclaimed music biopic with a lauded central performance I personally don’t think that Elvis will be the juggernaut Bohemian Rhapsody was, but the film should nab noms for Austin Butler and in some below-the-line categories.

    So what are this year’s frontrunners? The consensus picks seem to be Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, and Damien Chazelle’s Babylon. If these films are released this year they are essentially guaranteed Best Picture nominations in my mind. Of these films, Scorsese’s effort seems to me the most likely winner. It’s a drama centering on an FBI investigation of murders of members of the Osage tribe in the 1920s. It’s a Scorsese film so it’s almost guaranteed to be critically-acclaimed and it has the social relevance factor through its likely examination of themes such as racism and American expansionism. Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All at Once are, to me, the films I am most confident about rounding out the top five of the Best Picture race.

    (A little digression about Everything Everywhere All at Once which I’ve now seen twice in theaters:

    Coming into the film I heard many people comparing it to Marvel movies and to martial arts films, which piqued my interest since when has an A24 film ever been compared to anything made by Marvel? Still, the comparison that captured my mind the most was one where the film was said to be like “It’s a Wonderful Life”. It’s a connection that, on the surface, seems completely absurd. How can the first movie you think of when you see a colorful action film centering on a multiverse be a black-and-white drama from the 1940s? It’s a Wonderful Life is one of my absolute favorite films so I was excited to see this comparison come to life and, after watching it, it’s absolutely justified.

    On the most obvious level, both films use a sci-fi conceit to reveal universal truths about the importance of love: It’s a Wonderful Life with the idea of seeing what the world would be like if you’ve never existed and Everything Everywhere All at Once with the idea of seeing what your life would be like if you made different decisions through the medium of a multiverse. Both films illustrate the beauty of human connection in an immensely profound way. Both are incredibly life-affirming experiences that somehow reach their audiences in their cores and allow them to feel the importance of the seemingly mundane. They’re both films that love their audience and are incredibly humanist works that call for love and unity. But, most importantly of all to me, they’re both remarkably sincere films. Themes, messages, moments, and pieces of dialogue that would seem overly-saccharine, unearned, trite, or corny in other films don’t come off as such in these due to their utter honesty. You’d might think with the fantastical moments that both of these films have they wouldn’t reach their audiences as powerfully as they do, but I’d argue that they reach their audiences so profoundly due to those premises. I won’t elaborate further into that for obvious reasons, but the films’ premises are an instrumental aspect of what make them as powerful as they are. To me, no moment in these films come off as overwrought due to many elements especially the acting and storytelling. You feel for these characters and it’s obvious that the filmmakers love their characters as well, even with all their shortcomings and mistakes.)

    Netflix has a massive slate this year but none seem like sure things. The streamer has Noah Baumbach’s White Noise and Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, two civil rights biopics in Shirley and Rustin, and also David Fincher’s The Killer and Tobias Lindholm’s The Good Nurse. Seeing what they prioritize will be one of the biggest questions for the studio that still hasn’t won a Best Picture Oscar.

    Anyways, here are my predictions for May and my first predictions for the 2023 Oscars:

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)

    Women Talking (MGM)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    White Noise (Netflix)

    She Said (Universal)

    Empire of Light (Searchlight)

    Thirteen Lives (MGM)

    Rustin (Netflix)

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

     

    Could Jump In:

    Amsterdam (20th Century)

    Bardo (N/A)

    Elvis (Warner Bros.)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Shirley (Netflix)

    Decision to Leave (MUBI)

    Don’t Worry, Darling (Warner Bros.)

    Till (UA/MGM)

    Asteroid City (N/A)

    Armageddon Time (Focus)

    Avatar 2 (20th Century)

    Napoleon (Apple)

    The Son (Sony Classics)

    The Woman King (Sony)

    The Good Nurse (Netflix)

    The Killer (Netflix)

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)

    Nope (Universal)

    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM)

    The Greatest Beer Run Ever

    I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony)

    Tar (Focus)

    Disappointment Blvd. (A24)

    Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)

    The Lost King (N/A)

    Bones and All

    The Whale (A24)

    Longer Shots:

    Emancipation

    Broker (N/A)

    Holy Spider (N/A)

    RMN (N/A)

    Alcarras (MK2)

    The Wonder (Netflix)

    Crimes of the Future (Neon)

    Iao Capitano (01 Distribution)

    Monica (N/A)

    Rheingold (N/A)

    Showing Up (A24)

    The Way of the Wind (N/A)

    Tori and Lokita (N/A)

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Damien Chazelle – Babylon

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Adam Driver – White Noise

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Could Jump In: Hugh Jackman – The Son, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Joaquin Phoenix – Disappointment Blvd., Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody

    Carey Mulligan – She Said

    Margot Robbie – Babylon

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

    Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Regina King – Shirley, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Helen Mirren – Golda, Emma Thompson – Good Luck, Leo Grande, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Brad Pitt – Babylon

    Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

    Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon, Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Jean Smart – Babylon

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Laura Dern – The Son

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

    Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Hong Chau – The Whale, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Empire of Light

    Babylon

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Bardo, Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    White Noise

    Women Talking

    She Said

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: The Son, The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Lightyear

    Turning Red

    Wendell and Wild

    Pinocchio

    The Bad Guys

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Poor Things

    Amsterdam

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Elvis, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Babylon

    Empire of Light

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Elvis, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Poor Things

    Amsterdam

    Don’t Worry, Darling

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Elvis

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: Blonde, The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon

     

    BEST SOUND

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Thor: Love and Thunder

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Jurassic World: Dominion

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Fabelmans

    The Batman

    Babylon

    She Said

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Bardo

    Decision to Leave

    Close

    Triangle of Sadness

    Holy Spider

    Could Jump In: Broker, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita

  • Oscars 2022: ‘CODA’ Wins Best Picture

    Oscars 2022: ‘CODA’ Wins Best Picture

    It was a simultaneously crazy and unsurprising night. Will Smith punched Chris Rock live on television yet the favorite won in any every category except for Best Animated Short (where The Windshield Wiper beat out Robin Robin and Bestia). Anyway, this was the end of an exciting season that will definitely significantly affect the way I personally pick Best Picture. Also, my predictions were 15/9498 on GoldDerby’s rankings so I’m pretty proud of that as well.

    Well, when one season ends another one begins so look out for my first 2023 predictions next month!

    Here were tonight’s winners:

    BEST PICTURE

    Belfast (Focus Features) Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers

    CODA (Apple Original Films) Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix) Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers

    Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films)Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer

    Dune (Warner Bros) Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers

    King Richard (Warner Bros) Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers

    Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix) Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers

    West Side Story (20th Century Studios) Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Belfast – Kenneth Branagh

    Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi

    Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson

    The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion – WINNER

    West Side Story – Steven Spielberg

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

    Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos

    Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

    Andrew Garfield in tick, tick…BOOM!

    Will Smith in King Richard – WINNER

    Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

    Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye – WINNER

    Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter

    Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers

    Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos

    Kristen Stewart in Spencer

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

    Ciarán Hinds in Belfast

    Troy Kotsur in CODA – WINNER

    Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog

    J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos

    Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

    Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter

    Ariana DeBose in West Side Story – WINNER

    Judi Dench in Belfast

    Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog

    Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

    CODA – Screenplay by Siân Heder – WINNER

    Drive My Car – Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe

    Dune – Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth

    The Lost Daughter – Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal

    The Power of the Dog – Written by Jane Campion

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

    Belfast – Written by Kenneth Branagh – WINNER

    Don’t Look Up – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota

    King Richard – Written by Zach Baylin

    Licorice Pizza – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson

    The Worst Person in the World – Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

    FILM EDITING

    Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin

    Dune – Joe Walker – WINNER

    King Richard – Pamela Martin

    The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras

    tick, tick…BOOM! – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

    CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune – Greig Fraser – WINNER

    Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen

    The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner

    The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel

    West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Dune – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos – WINNER

    Nightmare Alley – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

    The Power of the Dog – Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards

    The Tragedy of Macbeth – Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

    West Side Story – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

    COSTUME DESIGN

    Cruella – Jenny Beavan – WINNER

    Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran

    Dune – Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan

    Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira

    West Side Story – Paul Tazewell

    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

    Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell

    Dune – Hans Zimmer – WINNER

    Encanto – Germaine Franco

    Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias

    The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

    “Be Alive” from King Richard
    Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter

    “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
    Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda

    “Down To Joy” from Belfast
    Music and Lyric by Van Morrison

    “No Time To Die” from No Time to Die – WINNER
    Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

    “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
    Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

    SOUND

    Belfast – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri

    Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett – WINNER

    No Time to Die – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor

    The Power of the Dog – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb

    West Side Story – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Coming 2 America – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer

    Cruella – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon

    Dune – Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh – WINNER

    House of Gucci – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer – WINNER

    Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick

    No Time to Die – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver

    Spider-Man: No Way Home – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

    Encanto – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer – WINNER

    Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie

    Luca – Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht

    Raya and the Last Dragon – Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Ascension – Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell

    Attica – Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry

    Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie

    Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein – WINNER

    Writing with Fire – Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Drive My Car (Japan)

    Flee (Denmark)

    The Hand of God (Italy)

    Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

    The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

    ANIMATED SHORT

    Affairs of the Art – Joanna Quinn and Les Mills

    Bestia – Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz

    Boxballet – Anton Dyakov

    Robin Robin – Dan Ojari and Mikey Please

    The Windshield Wiper – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez – WINNER

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

    Audible – Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean

    Lead Me Home – Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk

    The Queen of Basketball – Ben Proudfoot – WINNER

    Three Songs for Benazir – Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei

    When We Were Bullies – Jay Rosenblatt

    LIVE ACTION SHORT

    Ala Kachuu – Take and Run Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger

    The Dress – Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki

    The Long Goodbye – Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed – WINNER

    On My Mind – Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson

    Please Hold – K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse

     

    Source: AwardsWatch

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions

    Well, it ends here. After my first set of predictions in May 2021 (where I correctly predicted six of the eventual Best Picture nominees and all of the Best Cinematography nominees!) the Oscars have finally come.

    So, without further ado…

    Here are my FINAL predictions:

    BEST PICTURE: The Power of the Dog

    Could Steal: CODA

    BEST DIRECTOR: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Will Smith – King Richard

    Could Steal: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    BEST ACTRESS: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Steal: Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Troy Kotsur – CODA

    Could Steal: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Could Steal: Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Belfast

    Could Steal: Licorice Pizza or Don’t Look Up

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: CODA

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Encanto

    Could Steal: The Mitchells vs. the Machines or Flee

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Dune

    Could Steal: Nightmare Alley

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Dune

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog or The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Cruella

    Could Steal: Dune or Nightmare Alley

    BEST FILM EDITING: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Steal: Dune, Cruella, or Coming 2 America

    BEST SOUND: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Dune

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: No Time to Die

    Could Steal: Encanto

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Drive My Car

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Summer of Soul

    Could Steal: Flee

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Robin Robin

    Could Steal: Bestia

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Long Goodbye

    Could Steal: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run or Please Hold

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Queen of Basketball

    Could Steal: Three Songs for Benazir or Audible

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    BEST PICTURE

    This is CODA vs. The Power of the Dog. The Oscar voting period is from March 17th to the 22nd and during that time, CODA undoubtedly surged, winning PGA on the 19th and WGA on the 20th. The timing of these awards are one of the central reasons most pundits have CODA winning Best Picture. However, CODA didn’t have significant backlash until it won these awards and The Power of the Dog won three awards (DGA, BAFTA, and CCA), the weekend before the voting period opened. 

    Additionally, every Best Picture winner in the preferential era has won at either PGA or WGA, which as previously-mentioned, are both awards CODA has won (though The Power of the Dog was ineligible for a nomination at the WGA). CODA’s eleventh-hour spike and the film’s broad likeability and accessibility are its advantages, though it being oft-compared to a Lifetime movie will likely hurt it in the eyes of an Academy that awarded critical favorites like Moonlight, Parasite, and Nomadland in only the last five years. 

    What does The Power of the Dog have going for it? It’s probably the most acclaimed of the nominees (other than Drive My Car) and has the stats and path of recent Best Picture winners. It has a DGA nomination, a BAFTA Best Film nod, and Film, Director, and Screenplay mentions from the Golden Globes, all accolades that every Best Picture winner in the preferential era has had and that CODA does not have (Campions film won DGA, BAFTA, and the Globe for Best Drama as well). It went to the fall festivals, unlike CODA (the film premiered at Sundance in early 2021 and was released to streaming in August), has an editing nomination (which every BP winner in the preferential era except for Birdman, which was made to look like it was shot in one take, won), unlike CODA, and is the nomination leader with 12 total, unlike CODA. The thing The Power of the Dog doesn’t have going or it is that it is perceived by some as a cold, artsy pick in contrast to the warm and accessible nature of CODA. It has a 6.9 IMDb score which would be the lowest, by far, of any winner in the preferential era (Nomadland and The Shape of Water were the previous lowests with 7.3s). CODA, in contrast, has an 8.0.

    When it comes to sociocultural relevance, which has been a significant factor in most Best Picture winners of the last six years, CODA, with its focus on a deaf family, seems to have the upper hand. However, The Power of the Dog with its examination of closeted homosexuality in the 1920s also has this “sociocultural importance” factor. Sam Elliott’s comments against The Power of the Dog likely helped the film as it emphasized that the toxic masculinity it identified is still alive and well today.

    In the end, I am going to go with The Power of the Dog as this Academy is the one that nominated Drive My Car in Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay and awarded Moonlight in 2017 and Nomadland last year. I doubt they award a film like CODA that feels even slighter than something like Green Book. But then again, this year does kind of remind me of the 2019 when the broadly entertaining Green Book beat the black-and-white Roma, but Green Book had a lot more important stats under its belt that CODA doesn’t have (Editing nod, BAFTA Best Film nod, DGA nod, Golden Globe Best Film, Director, and Screenplay nods, etc.). CODA could win, but I don’t think I’m ready to see all the stat-destruction that a CODA win would entail.

    Nominees:

    The Power of the Dog – GG (Drama), DGA, CCA, BAFTA

    CODA – SAG, PGA, WGA

    Belfast

    Dune

    West Side Story – GG (Comedy/Musical)

    King Richard

    Licorice Pizza

    Don’t Look Up

    Drive My Car

    Nightmare Alley

    Pick: The Power of the Dog

    BEST DIRECTOR

    C(h)ampion is taking this. There is really no question about it. Barring nothing extremely unexpected, she will become the third woman to win Best Director and the second consecutive after Chloe Zhao won last year for Nomadland.

    Nominees:

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car

    Pick: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    2021 – Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, WGA, CCA

    2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

    2019 – Green Book – GG

    2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

    2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

    2015 – Birdman – GG

    2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

    2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

    2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

    As much as I want Paul Thomas Anderson to win his first Oscar here and as much as I think there is a desire to reward him here, I think Belfast will just edge it out. The Academy often awards Picture nominees that they like yet don’t award anywhere else in the Screenplay categories. Unfortunately, that description applies to Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up. All of these films are very much driven by their screenplays so I believe the biggest Best Picture contender will prevail in the end and I think that means this award is between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. As exemplified by past winners in this category, Best Original Screenplays either have high-concept loglines (Promising Young Woman, Parasite, Get Out, Her, Django Unchained, and Midnight in Paris), are serious and melancholic realist dramas (Manchester by the Sea and Spotlight), or win Best Picture (Parasite, Green Book, Spotlight, and Birdman). Don’t Look Up fits the first category and Belfast somewhat fits the second, while Licorice Pizza doesn’t fit any. In the end, I’m going to go with Belfast since, in addition to it getting nominations in Picture, Director, and Screenplay like Licorice Pizza, it also has nominations in Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Sound, and Original Song, implying to me that it has more support than PTA’s film.

    Nominees:

    Belfast – GG, CCA

    Licorice Pizza – BAFTA

    Don’t Look Up – WGA

    The Worst Person in the World

    King Richard

    Pick: Belfast

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    CODA obviously has so much love right now with the PGA, WGA, and SAG wins it has accrued. Still, it has only been nominated for 3 Oscars and while I’m not sure if it has what it needs to earn Picture, I think people will vote for it in Adapted Screenplay. If CODA wins Best Picture it will undoubtedly take this as well (CODA can’t win Picture without a win here as well) but I think that the film taking this doesn’t necessarily mean that it will win Best Picture. Anyways, it fits the kind of populist-leaning fare (Jojo Rabbit, The Imitation Game) that have won here in the past. The Power of the Dog still has the ability to win here but it’s very unlikely that the film gets Adapted Screenplay and Director, and not Picture or all three.

    Nominees: 

    CODA – BAFTA, WGA

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    Drive My Car

    The Lost Daughter – USC

    Dune

    Pick: CODA

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    How I hate to predict these categories. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. One thing that seems to be constant is that these shorts should have the power to linger past the moment the credits roll. I think The Long Goodbye, like Skin and Two Distant Strangers before it, has that visceral quality and it doesn’t hurt that a big name is behind it (Riz Ahmed). Please Hold, Ala Kachuu – Take and Run, and The Dress also have chances to steal as well.

    Nominees:

    The Long Goodbye

    Ala Kachuu – Take and Run

    Please Hold

    The Dress

    On My Mind

    Pick: The Long Goodbye

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    In the last 10 years, the longest winner in this category was 15 minutes (The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lesmore in 2011) and this year’s frontrunner, Robin Robin, is 32 minutes long. However, I think Robin Robin should be able to win this since it’s family-friendly like most of the last decade’s 10 winners here. Still, Robin Robin’s length does decrease the film’s chances somewhat and Bestia, the most visceral of the films here, has a very good chance to steal and I would pick it if it wasn’t for the big names behind Robin Robin and the fact that I think voters often namecheck people they recognize without watching the films in categories like the shorts.

    Nominees:

    Robin Robin

    Bestia

    The Windshield Wiper

    Affairs of the Art

    BoxBallet

    Pick: Robin Robin

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Three Songs for Benazir fits the mold of many previous winners in this category (specifically Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone and The White Helmets) since it’s also a short film taking place in an Asian warzone. However, I think The Queen of Basketball, with Shaquille O’Neal and Stephen Curry behind it, will win. It’s the film with the most clout behind it and while that oftentimes doesn’t mean anything in these categories, the film also has the highest IMDb score of the three top nominees (Audible – 6.7, ‘Benazir’ – 6.2, and ‘Basketball’ – 7.1) which is more significant of an indicator.

    Nominees:

    The Queen of Basketball

    Three Songs for Benazir

    Audible

    When We Were Bullies

    Lead Me Home

    Pick: The Queen of Basketball