Awards Insights

Tag: 2021

  • WGA Winners Announced: ‘Promising Young Woman’ triumphs over ‘Trial’

    WGA Winners Announced: ‘Promising Young Woman’ triumphs over ‘Trial’

    A win here was important for The Trial of the Chicago 7 since I believed that it needed at least this and SAG under its belt to be a top-2 contender for Best Picture. However, it did not prevail and its chances at winning at SAG are growing increasingly dim as Minari’s stock is quickly rising. So, unless Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari take PGA from the hands of Nomadland, Zhao’s film will have a relatively painless path to Best Picture.

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm won in Adapted Screenplay but since both Nomadland and The Father, the only two realistic contenders for that award at the Oscars, were ineligible, I think it will end up being inconsequential. If anything, Borat’s surprise win here shows that there is a lot of support in the industry for the film which could propel Maria Bakalova to a win in Best Supporting Actress.

    Anyway, here are the winners:

    FILM

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Judas and the Black Messiah, Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King, Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas; Warner Bros.

    Palm Springs, Screenplay by Andy Siara, Story by Andy Siara & Max Barbakow; Hulu

    Promising Young Woman, Written by Emerald Fennell; Focus Features [WINNER]

    Sound of Metal, Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder, Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance; Amazon Studios

    The Trial of the Chicago 7, Written by Aaron Sorkin; Netflix

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern, Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad, Based on Characters Created by Sacha Baron Cohen; Amazon Studios [WINNER]

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Screenplay by Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Based on the Play Written by August Wilson; Netflix

    News of the World, Screenplay by Paul Greengrass and Luke Davies, Based upon the Novel by Paulette Jiles; Universal Pictures

    One Night in Miami, Screenplay by Kemp Powers, Based on the Stage Play “One Night in Miami” by Kemp Powers; Amazon Studios

    The White Tiger, Screenplay by Ramin Bahrani, Based on the Book “The White Tiger” by Aravind Adiga; Netflix

    DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY

    All In: The Fight for Democracy, Written by Jack Youngelson; Amazon Studios

    The Dissident, Written by Mark Monroe and Bryan Fogel; Briarcliff Entertainment [WINNER]

    Herb Alpert Is…, Written by John Scheinfeld; Abramorama

    Red Penguins, Written by Gabe Polsky; Universal Pictures

    Totally Under Control, Written by Alex Gibney; Neon

    TELEVISION, NEW MEDIA, AND NEWS NOMINEES

    DRAMA SERIES

    Better Call Saul, Written by Ann Cherkis, Vince Gilligan, Peter Gould, Ariel Levine, Heather Marion, Thomas Schnauz, Gordon Smith, Alison Tatlock; AMC

    The Boys, Written by Eric Kripke, Ellie Monahan, Anslem Richardson, Craig Rosenberg, Michael Saltzman, Rebecca Sonnenshine; Amazon Prime Video

    The Crown, Written by Peter Morgan, Jonathan Wilson; Netflix [WINNER]

    The Mandalorian, Written by Rick Famuyiwa, Jon Favreau, Dave Filoni; Disney Plus

    Ozark, Written by Laura Deeley, Bill Dubuque, Paul Kolsby, Miki Johnson, Chris Mundy, John Shiban, Ning Zhou, Martin Zimmerman; Netflix

    COMEDY SERIES

    Curb Your Enthusiasm, Written by Larry David, Justin Hurwitz, Steve Leff, Carol Leifer, Jeff Schaffer; HBO

    The Great, Written by Vanessa Alexander, Tony McNamara, Tess Morris, Amelia Roper, Gretel Vella, James Wood; Hulu

    PEN15, Written by; Alyssa DiMari, Maya Erskine, Anna Konkle, Josh Levine, Gabe Liedman, Rachele Lynn, Vera Santamaria, Diana Tay, Sam Zvibleman; Hulu

    Ted Lasso, Written by Jane Becker, Leann Bowen, Brett Goldstein, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Bill Lawrence, Jamie Lee, Jason Sudeikis, Phoebe Walsh, Bill Wrubel; Apple TV+ [WINNER]

    What We Do in the Shadows, Written by Jake Bender, Jemaine Clement, Zach Dunn, Joseph Furey, Shana Gohd, Sam Johnson, Chris Marcil, William Meny, Sarah Naftalis, Stefani Robinson, Marika Sawyer, Paul Simms; FX Networks

    NEW SERIES

    Dave, Written by Dave Burd, Vanessa McGee, Saladin Patterson, Luvh Rakhe, Alex Russell, Jeff Schaffer, Max Searle, Yamara Taylor; FX Networks

    The Flight Attendant, Written by Kara Lee Corthron, Michael Foley, Ryan Jennifer Jones, Ticona S. Joy, Meredith Lavender, Jess Meyer, Daniele Nathanson, Marcie Ulin, Ian Weinreich, Steve Yockey; HBO Max

    The Great, Written by Vanessa Alexander, Tony McNamara, Tess Morris, Amelia Roper, Gretel Vella, James Wood; Hulu

    Lovecraft Country, Written by Misha Green, Shannon Houston, Jonathan Kidd, Kevin Lau, Ihuoma Ofordire, Wes Taylor, Sonya Winton; HBO

    Ted Lasso, Written by Jane Becker, Leann Bowen, Brett Goldstein, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Bill Lawrence, Jamie Lee, Jason Sudeikis, Phoebe Walsh, Bill Wrubel; Apple TV+ [WINNER]

    ORIGINAL LONG FORM

    Dirty John: The Betty Broderick Story, Written by Aaron Carew, Alexandra Cunningham, Lex Edness, Kevin J. Hynes, Juliet Lashinsky-Revene, Stacy A. Littlejohn, Katherine B. McKenna; USA

    Hollywood, Written by Ian Brennan, Janet Mock, Ryan Murphy, Reilly Smith; Netflix

    Mrs. America, Written by Tanya Barfield, Joshua Griffith, Sharon Hoffman, Boo Killebrew, Micah Schraft, April Shih, Dahvi Waller; FX Networks [WINNER]

    Safety, Written by Nick Santora; Disney Plus

    Uncle Frank, Written by Alan Ball; Amazon Prime Video

    ADAPTED LONG FORM

    Bad Education, Written by Mike Makowsky, Based on the New York Magazine article ” The Bad Superintendent” by Robert Kolker; HBO

    Clouds, Screenplay by Kara Holden; Story by Casey La Scala & Patrick Kopka and Kara Holden, Based on the book entitled “Fly A Little Higher’ by Laura Sobiech; Disney Plus

    The Good Lord Bird, Written by Jeff Augustin, Ethan Hawke, Erika L. Johnson, Mark Richard, Kristen SaBerre, Lauren Signorino, Based on the Novel by James McBride; Showtime

    Little Fires Everywhere, Written by Harris Danow, Rosa Handelman, Shannon Houston, Attica Locke, Raamla Mohamed, Amy Talkington, Liz Tigelaar, Nancy Won, Based on the book by Celeste Ng; Hulu

    The Queen’s Gambit, Written by Scott Frank, Allan Scott, Based on the novel by Walter Tevis; Netflix [WINNER]

    Source: AwardsWatch

  • 2021 Oscar Nominations List: ‘Mank’ leads with 10

    2021 Oscar Nominations List: ‘Mank’ leads with 10

    Best Picture

    “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics) 

    “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.) 

    “Mank” (Netflix) 

    “Minari” (A24) 

    “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) 

    “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features) 

    “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios) 

    “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) 

    Best Director

    Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”)

    David Fincher (“Mank”) 

    Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”) 

    Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) 

    Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”) 

    Best Actor in a Leading Role

    Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”) 

    Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) 

    Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) 

    Gary Oldman (“Mank”) 

    Steven Yeun (“Minari”) 

    Best Actress in a Leading Role

    Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) 

    Andra Day (“The United States v. Billie Holiday”) 

    Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) 

    Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) 

    Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) 

    Best Actor in a Supporting Role

    Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) 

    Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) 

    Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”) 

    Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”) 

    Lakeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)

    Best Actress in a Supporting Role

    Maria Bakalova (‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”) 

    Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”) 

    Olivia Colman (“The Father”) 

    Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”) 

    Yuh-jung Youn (“Minari”) 

    Best Animated Feature Film

    “Onward” (Pixar) 

    “Over the Moon” (Netflix) 

    “A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” (Netflix) 

    “Soul” (Pixar) 

    “Wolfwalkers” (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS) 

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Nina Pedrad

    “The Father,” Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

    “Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao 

    “One Night in Miami,” Kemp Powers 

    “The White Tiger,” Ramin Bahrani 

    Best Original Screenplay

    “Judas and the Black Messiah.” Screenplay by Will Berson, Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas

    “Minari,” Lee Isaac Chung 

    “Promising Young Woman,” Emerald Fennell 

    “Sound of Metal.” Screenplay by Darius Marder, Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance

    “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Aaron Sorkin 

    Best Original Song

    “Fight for You,” (“Judas and the Black Messiah”). Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas

    “Hear My Voice,” (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”). Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

    “Húsavík,” (“Eurovision Song Contest”). Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson

    “Io Si (Seen),” (“The Life Ahead”). Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini

    “Speak Now,” (“One Night in Miami”). Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

    Best Original Score

    “Da 5 Bloods,” Terence Blanchard 

    “Mank,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross 

    “Minari,” Emile Mosseri 

    “News of the World,” James Newton Howard 

    “Soul,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste 

    Best Sound

    “Greyhound,” Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman

    “Mank,” Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin

    “News of the World,” Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett

    “Soul,” Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker

    “Sound of Metal,” Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

    Best Costume Design

    “Emma,” Alexandra Byrne 

    “Mank,” Trish Summerville 

    “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Ann Roth 

    “Mulan,” Bina Daigeler 

    “Pinocchio,” Massimo Cantini Parrini

    Best Animated Short Film

    “Burrow” (Disney Plus/Pixar)

    “Genius Loci” (Kazak Productions) 

    “If Anything Happens I Love You” (Netflix) 

    “Opera” (Beasts and Natives Alike) 

    “Yes-People” (CAOZ hf. Hólamói) 

    Best Live-Action Short Film

    “Feeling Through” 

    “The Letter Room” 

    “The Present” 

    “Two Distant Strangers” 

    “White Eye” 

    Best Cinematography

    “Judas and the Black Messiah,” Sean Bobbitt 

    “Mank,” Erik Messerschmidt 

    “News of the World,” Dariusz Wolski 

    “Nomadland,” Joshua James Richards 

    “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Phedon Papamichael 

    Best Documentary Feature

    “Collective” (Magnolia Pictures and Participant) 

    “Crip Camp” (Netflix) 

    “The Mole Agent” (Gravitas Ventures) 

    “My Octopus Teacher” (Netflix) 

    “Time” (Amazon Studios) 

    Best Documentary Short Subject

    “Colette” (Time Travel Unlimited) 

    “A Concerto Is a Conversation” (Breakwater Studios) 

    “Do Not Split” (Field of Vision) 

    “Hunger Ward” (MTV Documentary Films)

    “A Love Song for Latasha” (Netflix) 

    Best Film Editing

    “The Father,” Yorgos Lamprinos

    “Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao 

    “Promising Young Woman,” Frédéric Thoraval 

    “Sound of Metal,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen 

    “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Alan Baumgarten 

    Best International Feature Film

    “Another Round” (Denmark) 

    “Better Days” (Hong Kong)

    “Collective” (Romania) 

    “The Man Who Sold His Skin” (Tunisia)

    “Quo Vadis, Aida?”(Bosnia and Herzegovina) 

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    “Emma,” Marese Langan, Laura Allen, Claudia Stolze

    “Hillbilly Elegy,” Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney, Matthew Mungle 

    “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson

    “Mank,” Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams, Colleen LaBaff

    “Pinocchio,” Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

    Best Production Design

    “The Father.” Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone

    “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton

    “Mank.” Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale

    “News of the World.” Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan

    “Tenet.” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

    Best Visual Effects

    “Love and Monsters,” Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox 

    “The Midnight Sky,” Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins

    “Mulan,” Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram

    “The One and Only Ivan,” Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez

    “Tenet,” Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

  • Post Oscar Nominations Analysis

    Post Oscar Nominations Analysis

    NOMINATIONS BY FILM
    (2 or more)

    Mank (Netflix) — 10
    The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) — 6
    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.) — 6
    Minari (A24) — 6
    Nomadland (Searchlight) — 6
    Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) — 6
    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) — 6
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) — 5
    Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) — 5
    News of the World (Universal) — 4
    One Night In Miami (Amazon Studios) — 3
    Soul (Walt Disney) — 3
    Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Films) — 2
    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios) — 2
    Collective (Magnolia Pictures/Participant) — 2
    Emma (Focus Features) — 2
    Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) — 2
    Mulan (Walt Disney) — 2
    Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) — 2
    Tenet (Warner Bros.) — 2

    Source: Deadline

    BEST PICTURE

    Here the biggest snubs were the exclusions of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami, which both received nominations from the PGA and the SAG. I hadn’t predicted The Father getting in but it did and also received nominations in Adapted Screenplay and Editing, which technically makes it a contender for a Best Picture win. Speaking of Best Picture contenders, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, and the previously-mentioned The Father all received nominations in Screenplay and Editing which are traditional requirements for a Best Picture. However, only the first three have a real chance of winning. Nomadland is still my favorite to win here.

    Another interesting to note is that only three films from streamers were nominated (Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 for Netflix and Sound of Metal for Amazon), which shows that even in this year where everything was online the Academy is still exercising their bias against streamers. This also is probably one of the reasons behind the exclusions of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) and One Night in Miami (Amazon).

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Thomas Vinterberg got in and Aaron Sorkin was left out. European directors oftentimes get a surprise inclusion here (Pawel Pawilkowski did the same thing two years ago) and Vinterberg continued that trend. And rightfully so as Vinterberg as made some modern classics with The Celebration and The Hunt. This inclusion all but cements the fact that Vinterberg’s Another Round will win Best International Feature Film. Nonetheless, Chloe Zhao will be winning this.

    Aaron Sorkin was snubbed here, which doesn’t damage his film’s chances at Best Picture immensely as Green Book director Peter Farrelly wasn’t nominated in this category either, but The Trial of the Chicago 7 now has to win Original Screenplay if it wants to win and it has stiff competition there with Promising Young Woman.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    The biggest surprise here was Lakeith Stanfield’s inclusion with his Judas and the Black Messiah costar Daniel Kaluuya. While there is a potential that the two actors may split votes, I still believe that Kaluuya has this one in the bag.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Even after that surprise Golden Globe win, Jodie Foster did not receive an Oscar nomination. The Mauritanian, which was nominated for five BAFTAs, was completely shut out today. Glenn Close, who was nominated for a Golden Raspberry for her performance in Hillbilly Elegy also received an Oscar nomination for that performance (this is the first time that has happened in the 21st century). She actually has a chance to win the Oscar but I don’t think she will due to the Razzie nomination. This is one of those categories where I could see any one of the five ending up as the winner, but if Bakalova wins at SAG she will win it all here as she already has a win at the CCA. Youn Yuh-jung also has a high chance of winning here as the Academy loves Minari but probably has no other place to award the film. Again, SAG is important because I doubt she can win here without winning at SAG first.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Judas and the Black Messiah getting this and two Supporting Actor nominations shows that it has support from the Academy. However, it missed out on Editing so I doubt it can win Best Picture. That goes for Minari as well as it also got a nomination here but missed out on Editing. Mank, the nominations leader, was snubbed here so it has no chance at winning Picture as it was snubbed in Editing as well.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom was surprisingly snubbed here as well, this time in favor of Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The White Tiger. The support for Borat here brings me to believe that Maria Bakalova should transcend the fact that here film is a comedy and win in Best Supporting Actress, but I’ll just have to see what happens at SAG.

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Promising Young Woman’s inclusion here is great for it and with this nomination it cements itself as a top-3 Best Picture contender along with fellow Editing nominees The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland.

    Most people have The Trial of the Chicago 7 winning here but in at least the last six years, the Editing branch has leaned more towards genre films that are not top-2 Best Picture contenders. So, as a result, Sound of Metal is the film that I think will win here.

    Past Best Editing Winners:

    2020 Oscars – Ford v Ferrari

    2019 – Bohemian Rhapsody

    2018 – Dunkirk

    2017 – Hacksaw Ridge

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road

    2015 – Whiplash

    All of these films were Best Picture nominees but not top-2 Best Picture contenders, which leads me to believe that Sound of Metal, which fits this criteria, will win this category.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

    This category loves to award CGI-heavy films with little practical effects so I should have known Love and Monsters would pop in here as opposed to Welcome to Chechnya (which surprisingly missed out in Documentary Feature as well). Tenet will probably win this in the end like Interstellar and inception before it.

     

  • FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

    FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

    Let’s just cut right to the chase.

    The first six here seemed all but assured for a nomination and I’m pretty sure the first seven will as well but from there on out it is uncertain. One of Sound of Metal, Judas, or News will make it due to PFCS, One of Da 5 Bloods, ‘Judas, and Sound for AFI. One of ‘Sound’, Da 5 Bloods, or News for CCA. In the past 4 years, every film that has been nominated for both CCA and PGA in this category has gone on to be nominated for Best Picture (except for The Big Sick, which didn’t get nominated because the Academy has a bias against pure comedies). Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, Minari, One Night in Miami, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Sound of Metal all fit this criteria this year so I think they all should get in. Judas and the Black Messiah is having a great final push and as it fits the criteria of an Oscar favorite to a T (I think it would be a top 5 contender if it was just released earlier), it will likely jump into the fray. The Father received a BAFTA nomination for Best Film, but it just doesn’t seem to be getting the support of the guilds which are so important in being successful here.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, SAG, AFI

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA

    Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), PGA, SAG, AFI

    One Night in Miami – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI

    Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, AFI

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, PGA, SAG, AFI

    Judas and the Black Messiah – PGA, AFI

    Sound of Metal – CCA, PGA, AFI

    Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, GG (Drama), Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – GG (Comedy), PGA, Soul – AFI, First Cow

     

    This one is really between 7 people: Chloe Zhao, David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, Emerald Fennell, Regina King, Lee Isaac Chung, and Spike Lee. Zhao seems like the only nominee who is locked in for a nomination as I could see any one of the others being forgotten on nomination day. Every day Minari’s stock rises and seems more and more like a top three Best Picture contender and if that is the case, Chung will definitely get in. Fennell’s Promising Young Woman could also be a top 3 contender but since her and Sorkin’s films are more screenplay-driven, I could see either of them missing here like Peter Farrelly did for Green Book two years ago. Fincher is likely only getting this nomination on the strength of his legacy as Mank seems to be faltering somewhat. Regina King and Spike Lee could also definitely get in as well. This category is prone to surprises and that usually comes in the form of the director of a serious period drama that the below-the line groups love. So watch out for Spike Lee or Paul Greengrass to surprise.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, DGA

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – GG, CCA, DGA

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, CCA, DGA

    David Fincher – Mank – GG, CCA, DGA

    Could Jump In: Regina King – One Night in Miami – GG, CCA, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Darius Marder – Sound Of Metal, Paul Greengrass – News of the World

     

    The first three here are locked for nominations while I think the last two spots could realistically only be filled by two of three people, Steven Yeun, Gary Oldman, or Delroy Lindo. Oldman has had nods at three of the spotlighted precursors, but Mank seems very vulnerable right now. Steven Yeun got two important precursors but surprisingly didn’t get BAFTA even though his film got a lot of love in the other jury-nominated categories like Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Director. I thought Lindo would get BAFTA and catapult himself to an Oscar nomination with a nomination there, but, even though the man is British and we saw vast diversity in the nominations, he still didn’t get a nom at the BAFTAs. I am going to put Oldman here but something tells me that Lindo will replace him on nominations morning.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – GG, SAG, CCA, BAFTA

    Steven Yeun – Minari – CCA, SAG

    Gary Oldman – Mank – GG, SAG, CCA

    Could Jump In: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round – BAFTA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG, BAFTA

     

    This one seems airtight and I really don’t think anybody else has enough momentum to join in here.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, SAG

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, GG, SAG

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – CCA, GG

     

    Kaluuya, Cohen, and Odom Jr. are all locked for a nomination here and I think that Raci is as well. The fifth slot is really the only question mark. I think the last slot is between Bill Murray, Chadwick Boseman, and Mark Rylance. Rylance could get in out of the Academy’s love for The Trial of the Chicago 7. Bill Murray could get in as the Oscars do often give nominations to older veterans (Tom Hanks last year and Christopher Plummer three years ago) who end up being their film’s one and only nomination. And Boseman could get in on the strength of his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and on the outpouring of love for the late star. If neither Murray nor Boseman get in, it will be Rylance.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Leslie Odom Jr. – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

    Sacha Baron Cohen – CCA, GG, SAG

    Paul Raci – BAFTA, CCA

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Jared Leto – The Little Things – GG, SAG

     

    This is one of the weirder categories as only one actress here (Maria Bakalova) has received nominations from the four main organizations and that too for a performance in a comedy. That said, she definitely deserves all of this recognition and is probably the only person that I think is locked for a nomination. Both Youn Yuh-jung and Olivia Colman are pretty much locked and while Close has received the same nominations as Colman she also received a nomination for Worst Supporting Actress at the Razzies so I am not sure if she will be nominated. Seyfried is slowly falling along with her film but I think she should still have enough strength to hold on to a position here. Foster’s surprise win at the Globes may turn out to be unsuccessful in creating an Oscar nom but her popularity in Hollywood coupled with the fact that this is her first major performance in at least seven years (excepting Hotel Artemis which most people do) should push her to a nomination here.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – BAFTA, CCA, GG (lead), SAG

    Youn Yuh-jung – Minari – BAFTA, CCA, SAG

    Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, GG, SAG

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG

    Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG

    Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, GG, SAG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA

     

    Both Mank and Minari were ineligible for nominations at WGA, so there exclusions there are not concerning. The first three I have here I think are locked while the next three slots could be filled by Sound of Metal, Mank, or Judas and the Black Messiah. Mank seems to be falling but it did receive a BAFTA nomination here so I think it should be fine. Sound of Metal is about language itself so it should be especially appealing and would be a great way to give ‘Blue Valentine’ writer Derek Cianfrance his first Oscar nomination.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA

    Minari – CCA

    Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA

     

    The first four here seem essentially locked but there are four films that are realistically vying for the last slot. I am going to go with The White Tiger as it has quietly surged and received a couple of BAFTA nominations. But I could see it very possibly going to First Cow, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, or News of the World. First Cow since no film that has won the New York Film Critics Circle’s Best Film award has ever been completely shut out at the Oscars, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm because of its overt political commentary, and News of the World since it has the highest chance of being nominated for Best Picture among the four films.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland – BAFTA, USC, GG, CCA

    One Night in Miami – USC, CCA, WGA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – USC, CCA, WGA

    The Father – BAFTA, GG, CCA

    The White Tiger – BAFTA, WGA

    Could Jump In: First Cow – USC, CCA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, News of the World – USC, CCA, WGA

     

    The first three are definitely locked and I am pretty confident about including Over the Moon and The Croods: A New Age but The Willoughbys could surprise and enter the fold.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    The Croods: A New Age

    Over the Moon

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys

     

    The top 3 here Mank, News of the World, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seem locked here. Both Mank and News of the World have received nominations from BAFTA, the Art Directors Guild, and the Critics Choice Awards. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom received noms from both the CCA and the ADG. Tenet did as well, but this category does not nominate contemporary films nearly as much as they do period films so I don’t think it’s locked.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank – ADG, BAFTA, CCA

    News of the World – ADG, BAFTA, CCA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, ADG

    Tenet – CCA, ADG

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ADG

    Could Jump In: Mulan – ADG, Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Emma. – CCA

     

    Nomadland, Mank, and News of the World seem locked here. ASC has the best historical track record here and in the past ten years they have always gotten either 4 or 5 of their picks in the Oscar nominee slate. Since The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a much bigger Oscar contender then Cherry is, I put the former in. Now, the last slot. Personally, I believe that it could really only go to Minari, Tenet, or Judas and the Black Messiah. I am going to go with Minari because it seems like it has widespread industry support. However, I could probably say the same thing about ‘Judas’ and I would be the least bit surprised if it showed up in a bunch of categories on Monday morning. Also, don’t count out First Cow as the Academy might want to award the critical favorite somewhere and as its chances at an Adapted Screenplay nomination are dwindling this may be the place that at lands.

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    Mank – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    News of the World – ASC, BAFTA, CCA

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – ASC

    Minari – CCA

    Could Jump In: Tenet – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah – BAFTA, First Cow – CCA, Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Cherry – ASC

     

    Period films almost always fully occupy this category and that is probably the most important thing to keep in mind here. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and Emma. are all locked for nominations here and Mulan seems well in place as well. I am going to choose Ammonite to fill the last spot here since it is a period piece and BAFTA has a really good track record in this category.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Emma. – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    Mulan – CCA, CDG

    Ammonite – BAFTA

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Promising Young Woman – CCA, CDG, The Glorias, The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA

     

    The first three are locked for nominations and I could see next two slots going to The Father, Promising Young Woman, or Minari. I am going to go with Promising Young Woman and Minari as The Father’s star is really falling right now as it didn’t get a nod from the ACE, which it was expected to do.

    BEST EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA, ACE

    Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, ACE

    Minari – ACE

    Could Jump In: The Father – BAFTA, CCA, Mank – ACE, CCA, Tenet – CCA

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Hillbilly Elegy – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    Birds of Prey – MUAH

    Pinocchio – BAFTA, MUAH

    Could Jump In: Emma. – CCA, The Glorias, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey – MUAH

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    News of the World – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    Mank – CAS, MPSE

    Greyhound – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE

    Soul – BAFTA, MPSE

    Could Jump In: Nomadland – BAFTA, MPSE, Tenet – MPSE, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CAS, MPSE, The Midnight Sky – MPSE

     

    My instincts are telling me to put in Birds of Prey instead of Welcome to Chechnya here but I just can’t bring myself to do it since it did not get any nominations from the Visual Effects Society.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    The Midnight Sky – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    Mulan – BAFTA, CCA, VES

    Welcome to Chechnya – VES

    The One and Only Ivan – BAFTA, VES

    Could Jump In: Birds of Prey, Mank – CCA, VES, Soul – BAFTA, VES

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    News of the World – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Mank – BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Minari – BAFTA, CCA, HMMA, SCL

    The Midnight Sky – CCA, GG, HMMA

    Could Jump In: Tenet, The Little Things

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami – CCA, GG, HMMA

    The Life Ahead – CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL

    Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, HMMA

    Eurovision Song Contest – CCA, HMMA, SCL

    All In: The Fight for Democracy – HMMA

    Could Jump In: Giving Voice – HMMA, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, HMMA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – SCL, Minari – HMMA

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round – GG, BAFTA, CCA

    Quo Vadis, Aida? – BAFTA

    Two of Us – GG, CCA

    I’m No Longer Here

    Night of the Kings

    Could Jump In: Collective – CCA, Dear Comrades! – BAFTA, La Llorona – GG, CCA

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Time – CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA

    Collective – BAFTA, CEH, IDA

    Crip Camp – CCA, IDA

    Welcome to Chechnya – DGA, IDA

    Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA, PGA

    Could Jump In: The Truffle Hunters – DGA, PGA, IDA, Boys State – CEH, DGA, All In: The Fight for Democracy, My Octopus Teacher – BAFTA, CCA

     

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    The Letter Room

    The Human Voice

    Two Distant Strangers

    Feeling Through

    The Present

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Colette

    Hunger Ward

    A Love Song for Latasha

    A Concerto is a Conversation

    Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    If Anything Happens I Love You

    Out

    Opera

    Burrow

    Kapaemahu

  • BAFTA Nominations are Released

    BAFTA Nominations are Released

    Best Film
    The Father
    The Mauritanian
    Nomadland
    Promising Young Woman
    The Trial Of The Chicago 7

    Leading Actress
    Bukky Bakray, Rocks
    Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version
    Vanessa Kirby, Pieces Of A Woman
    Frances McDormand, Nomadland
    Wunmi Mosaku, His House
    Alfre Woodard, Clemency

    Leading Actor
    Riz Ahmed, Sound Of Metal
    Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Adarsh Gourav, The White Tiger
    Anthony Hopkins, The Father
    Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
    Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

    Supporting Actress
    Niamh Algar, Calm With Horses
    Kosar Ali, Rocks
    Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
    Dominique Fishback, Judas And The Black Messiah
    Ashley Madekwe, County Lines
    Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

    Supporting Actor
    Daniel Kaluuya, Judas And The Black Messiah
    Barry Keoghan, Calm With Horses
    Alan Kim, Minari
    Leslie Odom Jr., One Night In Miami…
    Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
    Paul Raci, Sound Of Metal

    Outstanding British Film
    Calm With Horses
    The Dig
    The Father
    His House
    Limbo
    The Mauritanian
    Mogul Mowgli
    Promising Young Woman
    Rocks
    Saint Maud

    Outstanding Debut By A British Writer, Director Or Producer
    His House, Remi Weekes (Writer/Director)
    Limbo, Ben Sharrock (Writer/Director), Irune Gurtubai (Producer) [Also Produced By Angus Lamont]
    Moffie, Jack Sidey (Writer/Producer) [Also Written By Oliver Hermanus And Produced By Eric Abraham]
    Rocks, Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson (Writers)
    Saint Maud, Rose Glass (Writer/Director), Oliver Kassman (Producer) [Also Produced By Andrea Cornwell]

    Film Not In The English Language
    Another Round
    Dear Comrades!
    Les Misérables
    Minari
    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    Documentary
    Collective
    David Attenborough: A Life On Our Planet
    The Dissident
    My Octopus Teacher
    The Social Dilemma

    Animated Film
    Onward
    Soul
    Wolfwalkers

    Director
    Another Round, Thomas Vinterberg
    Babyteeth, Shannon Murphy
    Minari, Lee Isaac Chung
    Nomadland, Chloé Zhao
    Quo Vadis, Aida?, Jasmila Žbanić
    Rocks, Sarah Gavron

    Original Screenplay
    Another Round, Tobias Lindholm, Thomas Vinterberg
    Mank, Jack Fincher
    Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell
    Rocks, Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson
    The Trial Of The Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin

    Adapted Screenplay
    The Dig, Moira Buffini
    The Father, Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
    The Mauritanian, Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani, M.B. Traven
    Nomadland, Chloé Zhao
    The White Tiger, Ramin Bahrani

    Original Score
    Mank, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
    Minari, Emile Mosseri
    News Of The World, James Newton Howard
    Promising Young Woman, Anthony Willis
    Soul, Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

    Casting
    Calm With Horses, Shaheen Baig
    Judas And The Black Messiah, Alexa L. Fogel
    Minari, Julia Kim
    Promising Young Woman, Lindsay Graham Ahanonu, Mary Vernieu
    Rocks, Lucy Pardee

    Cinematography
    Judas And The Black Messiah, Sean Bobbitt
    Mank, Erik Messerschmidt
    The Mauritanian, Alwin H. Küchler
    News Of The World, Dariusz Wolski
    Nomadland, Joshua James Richards

    Editing
    The Father, Yorgos Lamprinos
    Nomadland, Chloé Zhao
    Promising Young Woman, Frédéric Thoraval
    Sound Of Metal, Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
    The Trial Of The Chicago 7, Alan Baumgarten

    Production Design
    The Dig, Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana Macdonald
    The Father, Peter Francis, Cathy Featherstone
    Mank, Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale
    News Of The World, David Crank, Elizabeth Keenan
    Rebecca, Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

    Costume Design
    Ammonite, Michael O’connor
    The Dig, Alice Babidge
    Emma, Alexandra Byrne
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ann Roth
    Mank, Trish Summerville

    Make Up & Hair
    The Dig, Jenny Shircore
    Hillbilly Elegy, Patricia Dehaney, Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Matiki Anoff, Larry M. Cherry, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal
    Mank, Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams
    Pinocchio, Mark Coulier

    Sound
    Greyhound, Tbc
    News Of The World, Michael Fentum, William Miller, Mike Prestwood Smith, John Pritchett, Oliver Tarney
    Nomadland, Sergio Diaz, Zach Seivers, M. Wolf Snyder
    Soul, Coya Elliott, Ren Klyce, David Parker
    Sound Of Metal, Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Phillip Bladh, Carlos Cortés, Michelle Couttolenc

    Special Visual Effects
    Greyhound, Pete Bebb, Nathan Mcguinness, Sebastian Von Overheidt
    The Midnight Sky, Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, David Watkins
    Mulan, Sean Faden, Steve Ingram, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury
    The One And Only Ivan, Santiago Colomo Martinez, Nick Davis, Greg Fisher
    Tenet, Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley

    British Short Animation
    The Fire Next Time, Renaldho Pelle, Yanling Wang, Kerry Jade Kolbe
    The Owl And The Pussycat, Mole Hill, Laura Duncalf
    The Song Of A Lost Boy, Daniel Quirke, Jamie Macdonald, Brid Arnstein

  • Producers Guild Nominations are Released

    Producers Guild Nominations are Released

    The Producers Guild Awards, the final piece of the puzzle to what will be nominated for Best Picture, just released their nominations this afternoon.

    Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

    • “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
      Producers: Sacha Baron Cohen, Monica Levinson, Anthony Hines
    • “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros)
      Producers: Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King
    • “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
      Producers: Denzel Washington, Todd Black
    • “Mank” (Netflix)
      Producers: Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski
    • “Minari” (A24)
      Producer: Christina Oh
    • “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
      Producers: Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao
    • “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
      Producers: Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein
    • “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
      Producers: Josey McNamara, Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell
    • “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
      Producers: Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche
    • “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
      Producers: Marc Platt, Stuart Besser

    Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

    • “The Croods: A New Age” (DreamWorks Animation)
      Producer: Mark Swift
    • “Onward” (Pixar)
      Producer: Kori Rae
    • “Over the Moon” (Netflix)
      Producers: Gennie Rim, Peilin Chou
    • “Soul” (Pixar)
      Producer: Dana Murray
    • “Wolfwalkers” (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS)
    • Producers: Paul Young, Nora Twomey, Tomm Moore, Stéphan Roelants

    Source: Variety

  • Critics Choice Awards: “Nomadland” Wins Picture, Is Locked as Oscar Frontrunner

    Critics Choice Awards: “Nomadland” Wins Picture, Is Locked as Oscar Frontrunner

    Best Picture

    “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
    “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
    “Mank” (Netflix)
    “Minari” (A24)
    “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
    “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) – WINNER
    “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
    “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
    “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
    “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)

    Best Director

    Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari” (A24)
    Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
    David Fincher, “Mank” (Netflix)
    Spike Lee, “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
    Regina King, “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
    Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
    Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) – WINNER

    Best Actor

    Ben Affleck, “The Way Back” (Warner Bros)
    Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
    Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) – WINNER
    Tom Hanks, “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
    Anthony Hopkins, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Delroy Lindo, “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
    Gary Oldman, “Mank” (Netflix)
    Steven Yeun, “Minari” (A24)

    Best Actress

    Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
    Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (Hulu)
    Sidney Flanigan, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” (Focus Features)
    Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman” (Netflix)
    Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features) – WINNER
    Zendaya, “Malcolm & Marie” (Netflix)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Chadwick Boseman, “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
    Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
    Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros) – WINNER
    Bill Murray, “On the Rocks” (A24/Apple TV Plus)
    Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
    Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios) – WINNER
    Ellen Burstyn, “Pieces of a Woman” (Netflix)
    Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy” (Netflix)
    Olivia Colman, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Amanda Seyfried, “Mank” (Netflix)
    Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (A24)

    Best Young Actor/Actress

    Ryder Allen, “Palmer” (Apple TV Plus)
    Ibrahima Gueye, “The Life Ahead” (Netflix)
    Alan Kim, “Minari” (A24) – WINNER
    Talia Ryder, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” (Focus Features)
    Caoilinn Springall, “The Midnight Sky” (Netflix)
    Helena Zengel, “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)

    Best Acting Ensemble

    “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
    “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros)
    “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
    “Minari” (A24)
    “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
    “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) – WINNER

    Best Original Screenplay

    “Mank” (Netflix) – Jack Fincher
    “Minari” (A24) – Lee Isaac Chung
    “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” (Focus Features) – Eliza Hittman
    “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features) – Emerald Fennell – WINNER
    “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios) – Darius Marder, Abraham Marder
    “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) – Aaron Sorkin

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics) – Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
    “First Cow” (A24) – Jonathan Raymond, Kelly Reichardt
    “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) – Ruben Santiago-Hudson
    “News of the World” (Universal Pictures) – Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass
    “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) – Chloé Zhao – WINNER
    “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios) – Kemp Powers

    Best Production Design

    “Emma” (Focus Features) – Kave Quinn, Stella Fox
    “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) – Mark Ricker, Karen O’Hara, Diana Stoughton
    “Mank” (Netflix) – Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale – WINNER
    “News of the World” (Universal Pictures) – David Crank, Elizabeth Keenan
    “The Personal History of David Copperfield” (Searchlight Pictures) – Cristina Casali, Charlotte Dirickx
    “Tenet” (Warner Bros) – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas

    Best Cinematography

    “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix) – Newton Thomas Sigel
    “First Cow” (A24) – Christopher Blauvelt
    “Mank” (Netflix) – Erik Messerschmidt
    “Minari” (A24) – Lachlan Milne
    “News of the World” (Universal Pictures) – Dariusz Wolski
    “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) – Joshua James Richards – WINNER
    “Tenet” (Warner Bros) – Hoyte Van Hoytema

    Best Costume Design

    “Emma” (Focus Features) – Alexandra Byrne
    “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) – Ann Roth – WINNER
    “Mank” (Netflix) – Trish Summerville
    “Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Bina Daigeler
    “The Personal History of David Copperfield” (Searchlight Pictures) – Suzie Harman, Robert Worley
    “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features) – Nancy Steiner

    Best Editing

    “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics) – Yorgos Lamprinos
    “Mank” (Netflix) – Kirk Baxter
    “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) – Chloé Zhao
    “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios) – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen – WINNER *TIE*
    “Tenet” (Warner Bros) – Jennifer Lame
    “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) – Alan Baumgarten – WINNER *TIE*

    Best Hair and Makeup

    “Emma” (Focus Features)
    “Hillbilly Elegy” (Netflix)
    “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) – WINNER
    “Mank” (Netflix)
    “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
    “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (Hulu)

    Best Visual Effects

    “Greyhound” (Apple TV Plus)
    “The Invisible Man” (Universal Pictures)
    “Mank” (Netflix)
    “The Midnight Sky” (Netflix)
    “Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures)
    “Tenet” (Warner Bros) – WINNER
    “Wonder Woman 1984” (Warner Bros)

    Best Score

    “The Midnight Sky” (Netflix) – Alexandre Desplat
    “Mank” (Netflix) – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
    “Minari” (A24) – Emile Mosseri
    “News of the World” (Universal Pictures) – James Newton Howard
    “Soul” (Pixar) – Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross – WINNER
    “Tenet” (Warner Bros) – Ludwig Göransson

    Best Song

    “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga” (Netflix) – “Husavik (My Home Town)”
    “The Life Ahead” (Netflix) – “Io Si (Seen)”
    “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros) – “Fight for You”
    “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios) – “Speak Now” – WINNER
    “The Outpost” (Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment) – “Everybody Cries”
    “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (Hulu) – “Tigress & Tweed”

    Best Foreign Language Film

    “Another Round” (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
    “Collective” (Magnolia Pictures)
    “La Llorona” (Shudder)
    “The Life Ahead” (Netflix)
    “Minari” (A24) – WINNER
    “Two Of Us” (Magnolia Pictures)

    Best Comedy

    “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
    “The Forty-Year-Old Version” (Netflix)
    “The King of Staten Island” (Universal Pictures)
    “On the Rocks” (A24/Apple TV+)
    “Palm Springs” (Hulu/NEON) – WINNER
    “The Prom” (Netflix)

    TELEVISION:

    Best Drama Series

    “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
    “The Crown” (Netflix) – WINNER
    “The Good Fight” (CBS All Access)
    “Lovecraft Country” (HBO)
    “The Mandalorian” (Disney Plus)
    “Ozark” (Netflix)
    “Perry Mason” (HBO)
    “This Is Us” (NBC)

    Best Actor in a Drama Series

    Jason Bateman – “Ozark” (Netflix)
    Sterling K. Brown – “This Is Us” (NBC)
    Jonathan Majors – “Lovecraft Country” (HBO)
    Josh O’Connor – “The Crown” (Netflix) – WINNER
    Bob Odenkirk – “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
    Matthew Rhys – “Perry Mason” (HBO)

    Best Actress in a Drama Series

    Christine Baranski – “The Good Fight” (CBS All Access)
    Olivia Colman – “The Crown” (Netflix)
    Emma Corrin – “The Crown” (Netflix) – WINNER
    Claire Danes – “Homeland” (Showtime)
    Laura Linney – “Ozark” (Netflix)
    Jurnee Smollett – “Lovecraft Country” (HBO)

    Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

    Jonathan Banks – “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
    Justin Hartley – “This Is Us” (NBC)
    John Lithgow – “Perry Mason” (HBO)
    Tobias Menzies – “The Crown” (Netflix)
    Tom Pelphrey – “Ozark” (Netflix)
    Michael K. Williams – “Lovecraft Country” (HBO) – WINNER

    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    Gillian Anderson – “The Crown” (Netflix) – WINNER
    Cynthia Erivo – “The Outsider” (HBO)
    Julia Garner – “Ozark” (Netflix)
    Janet McTeer – “Ozark” (Netflix)
    Wunmi Mosaku – “Lovecraft Country” (HBO)
    Rhea Seehorn – “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

    Best Comedy Series

    “Better Things” (FX)
    “The Flight Attendant” (HBO Max)
    “Mom” (CBS)
    “Pen15” (Hulu)
    “Ramy” (Hulu)
    “Schitt’s Creek” (Pop TV)
    “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus) – WINNER
    “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)

    Best Actor in a Comedy Series

    Hank Azaria – “Brockmire” (IFC)
    Matt Berry – “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
    Nicholas Hoult – “The Great” (Hulu)
    Eugene Levy – “Schitt’s Creek” (Pop TV)
    Jason Sudeikis – “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus) – WINNER
    Ramy Youssef – “Ramy” (Hulu)

    Best Actress in a Comedy Series

    Pamela Adlon – “Better Things” (FX)
    Christina Applegate – “Dead to Me” (Netflix)
    Kaley Cuoco – “The Flight Attendant” (HBO Max)
    Natasia Demetriou – “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
    Catherine O’Hara – “Schitt’s Creek” (Pop TV) – WINNER
    Issa Rae – “Insecure” (HBO)

    Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    William Fichtner – “Mom” (CBS)
    Harvey Guillén – “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
    Daniel Levy – “Schitt’s Creek” (Pop TV) – WINNER
    Alex Newell – “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist” (NBC)
    Mark Proksch – “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
    Andrew Rannells – “Black Monday” (Showtime)

    Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

    Lecy Goranson – “The Conners” (ABC)
    Rita Moreno – “One Day at a Time” (Pop TV)
    Annie Murphy – “Schitt’s Creek” (Pop TV)
    Ashley Park – “Emily in Paris” (Netflix)
    Jaime Pressly – “Mom” (CBS)
    Hannah Waddingham – “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus) – WINNER

    Best Limited Series

    “I May Destroy You” (HBO)
    “Mrs. America” (FX)
    “Normal People” (Hulu)
    “The Plot Against America” (HBO)
    “The Queen’s Gambit” (Netflix) – WINNER
    “Small Axe” (Amazon Studios)
    “The Undoing” (HBO)
    “Unorthodox” (Netflix)

    TV Movie

    “Bad Education” (HBO)
    “Between the World and Me” (HBO)
    “The Clark Sisters: First Ladies of Gospel” (Lifetime)
    “Hamilton” (Disney Plus) – WINNER
    “Sylvie’s Love” (Amazon Prime Video)
    “What the Constitution Means to Me” (Amazon Prime Video)

    Best Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

    John Boyega – “Small Axe” (Amazon Prime Video) – WINNER
    Hugh Grant – “The Undoing” (HBO)
    Paul Mescal – “Normal People” (Hulu)
    Chris Rock – “Fargo” (FX)
    Mark Ruffalo – “I Know This Much is True” (HBO)
    Morgan Spector – “The Plot Against America” (HBO)

    Best Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

    Cate Blanchett – “Mrs. America” (FX)
    Michaela Coel – “I May Destroy You” (HBO)
    Daisy Edgar-Jones – “Normal People” (Hulu)
    Shira Haas – “Unorthodox” (Netflix)
    Anya Taylor-Joy – “The Queen’s Gambit” (Netflix) – WINNER
    Tessa Thompson – “Sylvie’s Love” (Amazon Prime Video)

    Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

    Daveed Diggs – “The Good Lord Bird” (Showtime)
    Joshua Caleb Johnson – “The Good Lord Bird” (Showtime)
    Dylan McDermott – “Hollywood” (Netflix)
    Donald Sutherland – “The Undoing” (HBO) – WINNER
    Glynn Turman – “Fargo” (FX)
    John Turturro – “The Plot Against America” (HBO)

    Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

    Uzo Aduba – “Mrs. America” (FX) – WINNER
    Betsy Brandt – “Soulmates” (AMC)
    Marielle Heller – “The Queen’s Gambit” (Netflix)
    Margo Martindale – “Mrs. America” (FX)
    Winona Ryder – “The Plot Against America” (HBO)
    Tracey Ullman – “Mrs. America” (FX)

    Best Talk Show

    “Desus & Mero” (Showtime)
    “Full Frontal with Samantha Bee” (TBS)
    “The Kelly Clarkson Show” (Syndicated)
    “Late Night with Seth Meyers” (NBC) – WINNER
    “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)
    “Red Table Talk” (Facebook Watch)

    Best Comedy Special

    “Fortune Feimster: Sweet & Salty” (Netflix)
    “Hannah Gadsby: Douglas” (Netflix)
    “Jerry Seinfeld: 23 Hours to Kill” (Netflix) – WINNER *TIE*
    “Marc Maron: End Times Fun” (Netflix)
    “Michelle Buteau: Welcome to Buteaupia” (Netflix) – WINNER *TIE*
    “Patton Oswalt: I Love Everything” (Netflix)

    Best Short Form Series

    “The Andy Cohen Diaries” (Quibi)
    “Better Call Saul: Ethics Training with Kim Wexler” (AMC) – WINNER
    “Mapleworth Murders” (Quibi)
    “Nikki Fre$h” (Quibi)
    “Reno 911!” (Quibi)
    “Tooning Out the News” (CBS All Access)

  • Final Golden Globe Predictions: Who Will Win and What Surprises Will Be in Store?

    Final Golden Globe Predictions: Who Will Win and What Surprises Will Be in Store?

    The Golden Globes are notorious for throwing curveballs and while my predictions don’t necessarily have many surprises I do show you possibilities for what could be in store.

    So, without further ado, here are the predictions:

    FILM

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

    THE FATHER (Trademark Films; Sony Pictures Classics)

    MANK (Netflix; Netflix)

    NOMADLAND (Highwayman / Hear/Say / Cor Cordium; Searchlight Pictures)

    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (LuckyChap Entertainment / FilmNation Entertainment; Focus Features)

    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 (Marc Platt Productions / Dreamworks Pictures; Netflix)

    For the past three years there has been a surprise winner in this category at the Globes that ends up becoming a major frontrunner after its win here. Since Promising Young Woman is not widely-considered to be a top 3 frontrunner yet I think a win here will cement in that position. Anyway, there are only 3 films that can win this, the previously-mentioned Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Nomadland. They all have pros and cons with The Trial of the Chicago 7 being the film that would traditionally win in this category and Nomadland being the film that voters feel safe picking in this age of Twitter. However, Promising Young Woman is a movie that has the entertainment that the Globes love and is beloved by Film Twitter so I think it will be the pick for the very homogenous HFPA voting body. Still, the Globes have shown a lot of love to Sorkin (he has received 9 nominations from them) in the past so maybe that will translate into a win for ‘Chicago 7’? Also, will the Globes show their fixation on Old Hollywood and pick Mank?

    WINNER: Promising Young Woman

    UPSET PICK(S): The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

    VIOLA DAVIS
    MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

    ANDRA DAY
    THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY

    VANESSA KIRBY
    PIECES OF A WOMAN

    FRANCES MCDORMAND
    NOMADLAND

    CAREY MULLIGAN
    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

    To me, this is between Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis. The backlash to the Golden Globes’ lack of black nominees was swift and powerful so you bet they will try to do whatever they can to dispel that notion. With that said, I have Promising Young Woman winning and that definitely does not happen without Mulligan winning here. Even though I think this is a two-horse race, watch out for Frances McDormand who is one her seventh Globe nomination.

    WINNER: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    UPSET PICK: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom or Frances McDormand – Nomadland

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

    RIZ AHMED
    SOUND OF METAL

    CHADWICK BOSEMAN
    MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

    ANTHONY HOPKINS
    THE FATHER

    GARY OLDMAN
    MANK

    TAHAR RAHIM
    THE MAURITANIAN

    I know that some think that Hopkins could end up winning this as he is the kind of industry veteran that the HFPA loves to award but I really don’t seen anyone other than Boseman taking this award. Ahmed could surprise any other year but Boseman seems untouchable this year.

    WINNER: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    UPSET PICK: Anthony Hopkins – The Father

     

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
    (Four By Two Films; Amazon Studios)

    HAMILTON
    (Walt Disney Pictures / RadicalMedia / 5000 Broadway Productions / NEVIS Productions / Old 320 Sycamore Pictures; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

    MUSIC
    (Pineapple Lasagne Productions / Landay Entertainment; Vertical Entertainment / IMAX)

    PALM SPRINGS
    (Party Over Here / Limelight Productions; NEON / Hulu)

    THE PROM
    (Netflix / Dramatic Forces / Storykey Entertainment; Netflix)

    Hamilton is exactly the kind of thing that the HFPA would love, it is almost as if it is tailored for their tastes. However, there are a few problems that it has. One, will the Globes want to award it when it was released in July? By that I mean will enough voters remember it? Also, will there be some voters that disagree with its nomination in general as it is essentially a recording of a Broadway musical? Even with these questions, I think Hamilton will pull through, but do not underestimate Borat as its politics could bring it to the top of the pack. Some people also have The Prom winning this but the fact that two actresses that the Globes love, Meryl Streep and Nicole Kidman, did not get a nomination in Best Actress – Comedy or Musical shows to me that really doesn’t have that much support.

    WINNER: Hamilton

    UPSET PICK: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    MARIA BAKALOVA
    BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM

    KATE HUDSON
    MUSIC

    MICHELLE PFEIFFER
    FRENCH EXIT

    ROSAMUND PIKE
    I CARE A LOT

    ANYA TAYLOR-JOY
    EMMA

    The Globes love a comeback story so watch out for Pfeiffer to steal this. Still, Bakalova is the only nominee whose film is also nominated for Best Film (other than Hudson but she has essentially no chance due to the almost universal backlash against her film) so I feel like she should win this. If Bakalova doesn’t win this, her chances for a Best Supporting Actress nom at the Oscars greatly diminish so watch how this one plays out.

    WINNER: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    UPSET PICK: Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit or Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    SACHA BARON COHEN
    BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM

    JAMES CORDEN
    THE PROM

    LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA
    HAMILTON

    DEV PATEL
    THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD

    ANDY SAMBERG
    PALM SPRINGS

    My gut is telling me to put Lin-Manuel Miranda here is feel the HFPA will go crazy about Hamilton, but my brain is telling me that Cohen is going to win this as he has had an amazing year and this is the spot where he has the highest chance of being awarded. Also watch out for someone like Dev Patel or Andy Samberg since Dev Patel is the kind of actor that the HFPA loves and Andy Samberg has hosted before. This race seems poised for a surprise.

    WINNER: Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    UPSET PICK: Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton

     

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED

    THE CROODS: A NEW AGE
    (DreamWorks Animation; Universal Pictures)

    ONWARD
    (Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

    OVER THE MOON
    (Netflix / Pearl Studio / Glen Keane Productions; Netflix)

    SOUL
    (Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

    WOLFWALKERS
    (Cartoon Saloon / Melusine; Apple / GKIDS)

    People are saying that Wolfwalkers could take this but I still don’t think it will. If this was a weak year for Pixar I would definitely have Wolfwalkers winning this but it is not as Soul is as critically-acclaimed as some of Pixar’s most classic original films.

    WINNER: Soul

    UPSET PICK: Wolfwalkers

     

    BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE

    ANOTHER ROUND (DENMARK)
    (Zentropa Entertainments; Samuel Goldwyn Films)

    LA LLORONA (GUATEMALA / FRANCE)
    (La Casa de Producción / Les Films du Volcan; Shudder)

    THE LIFE AHEAD (ITALY)
    (Palomar; Netflix)

    MINARI (USA)
    (Plan B; A24)

    TWO OF US (FRANCE / USA)
    (Paprika Films; Magnolia Pictures)

    I will be thoroughly shocked if Minari does not win this. I have it as a top-5 Best Picture contender at the Oscars and if it does not win here I will definitely have to reconsider that placement. Another Round seems like its only competition.

    WINNER: Minari

    UPSET PICK: Another Round

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

    GLENN CLOSE
    HILLBILLY ELEGY

    OLIVIA COLMAN
    THE FATHER

    JODIE FOSTER
    THE MAURITANIAN

    AMANDA SEYFRIED
    MANK

    HELENA ZENGEL
    NEWS OF THE WORLD

    Another three-horse race, this time between Amanda Seyfried, Olivia Colman, and Glenn Close. Colman is definitely beloved by the HFPA (she’s won 3 Globes in the last five years!) yet I feel like her performance in The Father is too understated for the tastes of the HFPA. I also think that the Globes want to award Mank somewhere and this is probably that film’s best opportunity to win. And then there’s Glenn Close. She’s on her 15th Globe nomination and her role in Hillbilly Elegy is the kind of “transformative” performance that the Globes love. However, her film Hillbilly Elegy is controversial and the HFPA might feel that they are on thin ice after all the backlash they have faced for various things.

    WINNER: Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    UPSET PICK: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy or Olivia Colman – The Father

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

    SACHA BARON COHEN
    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

    DANIEL KALUUYA
    JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

    JARED LETO
    THE LITTLE THINGS

    BILL MURRAY
    ON THE ROCKS

    LESLIE ODOM JR
    ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI

    In the past three Golden Globes, the winner in this category has been in a film that would eventually win a Best Film award. Sacha Baron Cohen is the only one in the pack from a Best Film nominee and it’s a major contender. However, Kaluuya and Odom Jr. are playing famous historical figures, a type of performance the HFPA loves to award. They are also young actors that have been major names in the industry for less than five years, which is a category of actor the HFPA loves to acknowledge as well. I am going with Kaluuya since, during the period February 10th to the 23rd (the period that the Globes are voted upon), Kaluuya has gained the most plaudits, media attention, and critics’ awards. Still, this one is very uncertain.

    WINNER: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    UPSET PICK: Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami or Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

    EMERALD FENNELL
    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

    DAVID FINCHER
    MANK

    REGINA KING
    ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI

    AARON SORKIN
    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

    CHLOÉ ZHAO
    NOMADLAND

    Chloe Zhao is going to continue sweeping basically everything in this category so this is kind of a no-brainer for me.

    WINNER: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    UPSET PICK: N/A

     

    BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

    EMERALD FENNELL
    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

    JACK FINCHER
    MANK

    AARON SORKIN
    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

    FLORIAN ZELLER, CHRISTOPHER HAMPTON
    THE FATHER

    CHLOÉ ZHAO
    NOMADLAND

    This would be Sorkin’s eighth nomination in this category (and he has won twice already) so I don’t know how smart it would be to bet against him here. However, I also think that if Promising Young Woman wins here, it will definitely win Best Drama and since I do have Promising Young Woman I should probably have it winning here as well, right? Well, I am going to play it safe and choose ‘Trial’ but I will not be the least bit surprised if Promising Young Woman takes this.

    WINNER: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    UPSET PICK: Promising Young Woman

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE

    ALEXANDRE DESPLAT
    THE MIDNIGHT SKY

    LUDWIG GÖRANSSON
    TENET

    JAMES NEWTON HOWARD
    NEWS OF THE WORLD

    TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS
    MANK

    TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS, JON BATISTE
    SOUL

    Since Jon Batiste is also a part of the group that is being nominated, I think Soul should win here. I don’t think Reznor and Ross’ music by itself would handily earn the win but with Batiste’s jazz additions, Soul should easily win this and start on its sweep of this category throughout awards season.

    WINNER: Soul

    UPSET PICK: Mank

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE

    “FIGHT FOR YOU” — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
    Music by: H.E.R., Dernst Emile II
    Lyrics by: H.E.R., Tiara Thomas

    “HEAR MY VOICE” — THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
    Music by: Daniel Pemberton
    Lyrics by: Daniel Pemberton, Celeste Waite

    “IO SÌ (SEEN)” — THE LIFE AHEAD
    Music by: Diane Warren
    Lyrics by: Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi

    “SPEAK NOW” — ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
    Music by: Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
    Lyrics by: Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth

    “TIGRESS & TWEED” — THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
    Music by: Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq
    Lyrics by: Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq

    The Globes love to award anthemic and uplifting music in this category and Speak Now, which although starts somewhat low-key, does become that type of song. However, this is a more competitive category than most people think and I definitely could see either H.E.R. or Andra Day taking this for their respective films.

    WINNER: One Night in Miami

    UPSET PICK: The United States vs. Billie Holiday or Judas and the Black Messiah

    TV

    BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

    THE CROWN – NETFLIX
    (Left Bank Pictures / Sony Pictures Television)

    LOVECRAFT COUNTRY – HBO
    (HBO / Afemme / Monkeypaw / Bad Robot / Warner Bros. Television)

    THE MANDALORIAN – DISNEY+
    (Lucasfilm Ltd.)

    OZARK – NETFLIX
    (MRC Television)

    RATCHED – NETFLIX
    (Fox21 Television Studios)

    The HFPA loves to make shocking picks in this category and they have shown a lot of love to Ryan Murphy in the past so even though Ratched was widely panned it could win. However, The Crown has five acting nominations so it definitely has wide support and should probably win. Still, it is important to mention that the HFPA does not usually like to reward shows after their debut season, which is concerning for The Crown (third season) and good for Ratched and Lovecraft Country.

    WINNER: The Crown

    UPSET PICK: Ratched

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

    OLIVIA COLMAN
    THE CROWN

    JODIE COMER
    KILLING EVE

    EMMA CORRIN
    THE CROWN

    LAURA LINNEY
    OZARK

    SARAH PAULSON
    RATCHED

    While Emma Corrin and Olivia Colman could split votes, Emma Corrin winning here is a very Globes-y thing to do. She is a relative newcomer and is playing a famous public figure in a prestige drama, a usually foolproof formula to winning a Globe.

    WINNER: Emma Corrin – The Crown

    UPSET PICK: Olivia Colman – The Crown or Sarah Paulson – Ratched

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

    JASON BATEMAN
    OZARK

    JOSH O’CONNOR
    THE CROWN

    BOB ODENKIRK
    BETTER CALL SAUL

    AL PACINO
    HUNTERS

    MATTHEW RHYS
    PERRY MASON

    This category seems very unpredictable. I could think of arguments for Bateman, O’Connor, Rhys, and Pacino winning this so this is one of the widest fields this year. So let me find arguments against them winning. Jason Bateman has already lost twice for his role in Ozark and the Globes have not shown that they respect the rule third time’s a charm. The Crown will most likely win in both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress so will the HFPA, who oftentimes like to spread the wealth, want to award O’Connor as well? Matthew Rhys delivers a great performance but the HFPA hasn’t shown that they liked Perry Mason as it did not receive any other nominations even though it was expected to. Al Pacino is a big name and his performance is the kind of showy veteran role that the Globes love, but Hunters may not have enough people that liked it for Pacino to win. I am going to choose O’Connor because he has the least, in my opinion, going against him.

    WINNER: Josh O’Connor – The Crown

    UPSET PICK: Jason Bateman – Ozark or Al Pacino – Hunters

     

    BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    EMILY IN PARIS – NETFLIX
    (Darren Star Productions / Jax Media / MTV Studios)

    THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT – HBO MAX
    (HBO Max / Berlanti Productions / Yes, Norman Productions / Warner Bros. Television)

    THE GREAT – HULU
    (Hulu / Civic Center Media / MRC)

    SCHITT’S CREEK – POP TV
    (Not A Real Company Productions / Canadian Broadcast Company / Pop TV)

    TED LASSO – APPLE TV+
    (Apple / Doozer Productions / Warner Bros. Television / Universal Television)

    The Globes like to award shows that are in their first season. That is good news for Ted Lasso, The Flight Attendant, The Great, and Emily in Paris yet since this is the first time Schitt’s Creek has been nominated in this category at the Globes, the HFPA will likely treat it like a first-time nominee. Schitt’s Creek also has the most acting nominations in the Musical or Comedy sphere so it seems safe for the win, but watch out for the crowd-pleaser Ted Lasso to steal this.

    WINNER: Schitt’s Creek

    UPSET PICK: Ted Lasso

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    LILY COLLINS
    EMILY IN PARIS

    KALEY CUOCO
    THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT

    ELLE FANNING
    THE GREAT

    JANE LEVY
    ZOEY’S EXTRAORDINARY PLAYLIST

    CATHERINE O’HARA
    SCHITT’S CREEK

    This one is really between Catherine O’Hara and Kaley Cuoco. They represent the two performances that the Globes love to award the showy Hollywood veteran turn and the young first-time nominee performance. Still, it is also true that this is O’Hara’s first Globe nomination so I think the Globes will want to quickly rectify that and award the comedy legend.

    WINNER: Catherine O’Hara – Schitt’s Creek

    UPSET PICK: Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

    DON CHEADLE
    BLACK MONDAY

    NICHOLAS HOULT
    THE GREAT

    EUGENE LEVY
    SCHITT’S CREEK

    JASON SUDEIKIS
    TED LASSO

    RAMY YOUSSEF
    RAMY

    Jason Sudeikis is the favorite here but the HFPA has shown that they like to award young up-and-coming comedians in this category so watch for Nicholas Hoult to make an upset. Emmy winner Eugene Levy has never won a Globe (he has never been nominated prior to this year either) and the Globes may choose to reward him this year.

    WINNER: Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso

    UPSET PICK: Eugene Levy – Schitt’s Creek or Nicholas Hoult – The Great

     

    BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

    NORMAL PEOPLE – HULU
    (Hulu / BBC / Element Pictures)

    THE QUEEN’S GAMBIT – NETFLIX
    (Netflix)

    SMALL AXE – AMAZON STUDIOS
    (BBC Studios Americas, Inc. / Amazon Studios)

    THE UNDOING – HBO
    (HBO / Made Up Stories / Blossom Films/David E. Kelley Productions)

    UNORTHODOX – NETFLIX
    (Studio Airlift / RealFilm)

    While the Queen’s Gambit seems like the obvious pick here I cannot forget that Small Axe is absolutely beloved by critics and while the Globes have never really aligned greatly with the general critical consensus, I definitely can see Small Axe winning this.

    WINNER: The Queen’s Gambit

    UPSET PICK: Small Axe

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

    CATE BLANCHETT
    MRS. AMERICA

    DAISY EDGAR-JONES
    NORMAL PEOPLE

    SHIRA HAAS
    UNORTHODOX

    NICOLE KIDMAN
    THE UNDOING

    ANYA TAYLOR-JOY
    THE QUEEN’S GAMBIT

    This is probably the most “sure thing” of any of the categories here as the acclaim for Taylor-Joy is more than any other of the nominees. She is the frontrunner by far and it would be very surprising if she doesn’t end up winning.

    WINNER: Anya Taylor-Joy

    UPSET PICK: Shira Haas – Unorthodox

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

    BRYAN CRANSTON
    YOUR HONOR

    JEFF DANIELS
    THE COMEY RULE

    HUGH GRANT
    THE UNDOING

    ETHAN HAWKE
    THE GOOD LORD BIRD

    MARK RUFFALO
    I KNOW THIS MUCH IS TRUE

    This is probably a three-way race between Mark Ruffalo, Ethan Hawke, and Hugh Grant. Ruffalo is playing two roles, which is something the HFPA absolutely loves. Hugh Grant is having a career comeback with his role in The Undoing and that is the kind of storyline that the Globes love as well. And Hawke is playing a famous historical figure in John Brown. Also, watch out for Jeff Daniels as, like I said before, the Globes like when actors play political figures and Daniels is playing James Comey.

    WINNER: Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much is True

    UPSET PICK: Hugh Grant – The Undoing or Ethan Hawke – The Good Lord Bird

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE

    GILLIAN ANDERSON
    THE CROWN

    HELENA BONHAM CARTER
    THE CROWN

    JULIA GARNER
    OZARK

    ANNIE MURPHY
    SCHITT’S CREEK

    CYNTHIA NIXON
    RATCHED

    This is probably one of the easier categories to predict as Gillian Anderson’s performance as Margaret Thatcher is something that the HFPA will love.

    WINNER: Gillian Anderson – The Crown

    UPSET PICK: Annie Murphy – Schitt’s Creek or Cynthia Nixon – Ratched

     

    BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE

    JOHN BOYEGA
    SMALL AXE

    BRENDAN GLEESON
    THE COMEY RULE

    DANIEL LEVY
    SCHITT’S CREEK

    JIM PARSONS
    HOLLYWOOD

    DONALD SUTHERLAND
    THE UNDOING

    While John Boyega should win this, Dan Levy and Brendan Gleeson are not far behind. The Globes like to award performances like Gleeson’s, I still remember when, last year, Russell Crowe had a surprise win for playing Roger Ailes. Gleeson, an Irish actor interestingly, is playing Donald Trump so I would watch out for him to upset.

    WINNER: John Boyega – Small Axe

    UPSET PICK: Brendan Gleeson – The Comey Rule or Dan Levy – Schitt’s Creek

  • January Oscar Predictions

    January Oscar Predictions

    We’re at the stage in the game where we essentially know what films will be considered. In my view, there are 13 films that have a good chance to get a Best Picture nomination, the ten I put in my predictions and News of the World, Soul, and Sound of Metal. 6 of these films (Nomadland, ‘Trial’, Mank, ‘Ma Rainey’, Minari, and ‘One Night’) I think are essentially locked in for a nomination while the rest will probably shuffle around until nomination morning on March 15th.

    I was thinking of leaving out Da 5 Bloods from my nominations this month, but the film has continued to stay relevant in the race due to the enormous attention it has received from the critics’ awards in a variety of categories. It seems this film, even though it was released in June, will be remembered come Oscar nomination morning.

    At this point in the race, I think there are only 3 films that can win Best Picture Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Judas and the Black Messiah. The first two have been widely-seen and are generally well-liked by both the critics and public. However, Judas and the Black Messiah has not been seen by the general public but early word is very good and if this movie makes a big impact with critics then this film will shoot up on this list.

    This is the first time I have Promising Young Woman in the top 10 and I think it will stay there since due to this category’s use of the preferential ballot, films with a passionate following benefit, which is something this film has in spades.

    I’m keeping The Father and News of the World as they are films that will likely appeal to the “old guard” of the Academy but at the same I don’t see as much passion behind them and something like Da 5 Bloods, Soul, or Sound of Metal could easily take up one of their slots.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    Minari (A24)

    Mank (Netflix)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Promising Young Woman (Focus)

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, The United States vs Billie Holliday, Malcolm and Marie, On the Rocks, The Prom, Cherry

     

    Chloe Zhao does not look like she can lose this at this point in the race. Something may change but Zhao is the director of a top 3 Best Picture contender and has won essentially all of the critics’ awards so far for Best Director.

    To me, Zhao, Fincher, and Sorkin are all but assured a nomination with the bottom two slots being more of a question mark.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

    Could Jump In: George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Florian Zeller – The Father

     

    Like Zhao in director, there doesn’t seem to be a way that Boseman loses this. His performance has been getting plaudits from everywhere and while he is not far and away the leader in critics’ awards he has won at the ones that are more predictive of success at the Oscars.

    I had trouble leaving Yeun out of the top five and if Mank continues to receive a mostly tepid reception from the public and critics’ groups, Oldman might drop out. Ahmed, Boseman, and Lindo are the actors receiving the most attention from the critics’ groups and while I didn’t have Ahmed in here last month his performance (and his film for that matter) is gaining notices.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Hanks – News of the World, John David Washington – Malcolm and Marie, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    Carey Mulligan is slowly but surely rising up the ranks as her performance continues to get more and more recognition. She and McDormand are getting most of the attention in this category from critics’ groups, but don’t underestimate Davis who would become only the second-ever Black woman to win in this category (Halle Berry won for Monster’s Ball in 2002).

    Zendaya is coming off a surprise Emmy win and her performance in Malcolm and Marie is being praised as one of the best of the year by the critics that have seen the film. That Emmy momentum could propel Zendaya in to the top five but she would likely replace either Kirby or Day.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm and Marie, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Meryl Streep – The Prom

     

    Daniel Kaluuya is getting raves from the few reviews of Judas and the Black Messiah that are out there and I don’t really see him not being a nominee. Odom Jr. and Baron Cohen are definitely his Kaluuya’s main competition in this category and either of these actors playing historical figures could win.

    Paul Raci has (by far) won the most critics’ awards in this category and that catapults him into the top five this month. I don’t see him winning because his film is not a frontrunner but it’s definitely a possibility.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, David Strathairn – Nomadland

     

    I don’t see anybody outside of my top six listed here getting nominated in this category. However, choosing that one actress that will get left out is difficult. But I’m going to go with Close since her film was widely panned.

    Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-Jung have won most of the critics’ awards in this category but they both have things working against them. Bakalova’s performance was in a comedy and as purely comedic performances hardly ever get nominated, Bakalova has to work through that barrier.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Promising Young Woman

    Mank

    Minari

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Soul, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, Sound of Metal

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    One Night in Miami

    The Father

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    First Cow

    Could Jump In: News of the World, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Earwig and the Witch

    Could Jump In: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Lupin III: The First, Trolls: World Tour, Demon Slayer

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, The Prom, Tenet

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland

    Mank

    News of the World

    Tenet

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    Emma

    Mulan

    The United States vs Billie Holiday

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, News of the World, The Prom, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    Mank

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Father, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Mank

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    The United States vs Billie Holiday

    Could Jump In: Bill and Ted Face the Music, The Prom, Birds of Prey, Emma., Mulan

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Mank

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Prom, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Greyhound

    The Invisible Man

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Mank, Sonic the Hedgehog, Birds of Prey, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Mank

    News of the World

    Minari

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, The Little Things, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    All In: The Fight for Democracy

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Could Jump In: The Prom, Trolls: World Tour, Miss Americana, The Outpost, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Dick Johnson is Dead

    Crip Camp

    All In: The Fight For Democracy

    Time

    Totally Under Control

    Could Jump In: Boys State, Collective, The Truffle Hunters, Welcome to Chechnya, John Lewis: Good Trouble, The Way I See It, MLK/FBI

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Another Round

    Night of the Kings

    I’m No Longer Here

    Collective

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    Could Jump In: A Sun, Charlatan, Two of Us, Dear Comrades!, The Auschwitz Report