Tag: Oscars

BEST PICTURE

2020 – Parasite – SAG, WGA

2019 – Green Book – GG, PGA

2018 – The Shape of Water – CCA, DGA, PGA

2017 – Moonlight – GG, WGA

2016 – Spotlight – SAG, CCA, WGA

2015 – Birdman – SAG, DGA, PGA

2014 – 12 Years a Slave – GG, BAFTA, CCA, PGA

2013 – Argo – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

2012 – The Artist – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA

2011 – The King’s Speech – BAFTA, SAG, DGA, PGA

2010 – The Hurt Locker – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

Yes, I know, Nomadland does not really seem like the type of film that wins Best Picture but let’s look at some stats. A film absolutely needs to win at least one of PGA (Nomadland won here), WGA (Promising Young Woman), or SAG (The Trial of the Chicago 7) to win Best Picture. If two of these are not won then the film needs at least one of GG, CCA, or DGA to win. These are the only ways films have won in the era of the preferential ballot and the only film that fits all of this criteria is Nomadland as it has won the GG, the CCA, and the DGA. The Trial of the Chicago seems like the traditional type of winner here but Nomadland has all the data behind it.

Nominees: 

Nomadland – GG, CCA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – SAG

Minari

Promising Young Woman – WGA

Judas and the Black Messiah

The Father

Sound of Metal

Mank

Pick: Nomadland

BEST DIRECTOR

This one is probably the most locked award of the night as Zhao has won every major precursor and almost every critics’ award in her category. Nobody else has a chance.

Nominees:

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

David Fincher – Mank

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

Pick: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

BEST ACTOR

While Anthony Hopkins’ BAFTA win shows that there is support for his performance, BAFTA does often show a preference for British actors and Boseman should still be able to win. However, some are saying that the Hopkins win is indicative of a very popular push for the veteran’s work to be recognized. Still, I don’t think it will be enough to overtake Boseman. This does, however, show that there is a lot of support for The Father and it may be a mistake to predict the film being shut out.

Nominees:

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, CCA, SAG

Anthony Hopkins – The Father – BAFTA

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

Steven Yeun – Minari

Gary Oldman – Mank

Pick: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST ACTRESS

A stat that is important, I think, is that no Best Actress winner in at least the last 10 years has lost at the Film Independent Spirit awards if they were nominated there. That means that if the eventual Best Actress winner is nominated at the Spirit awards it will win there as well. Carey Mulligan was the winner from the Spirits and if I were to go by the previously-mentioned logic, Andra Day and Mulligan are the only two that have a chance at winning here (since Day was not nominated at the Spirits). This is only one of the stats that are in play here and the question is which of these stats is the most breakable?

While the SAG award has been in existence (it was started in the mid-90s), no Best Actress winner won without a nomination there. Andra Day is the only nominee that did not pull off a nomination at SAG and while some might say that is because her film had a really late release date and was therefore underseen, Judas and the Black Messiah also had a late release date but Kaluuya was still able to garner a SAG nom. This seems like a pretty strong stat since there are hundreds of people that vote for the SAG awards who also vote for the Oscars.

Another stat is that every Best Actress winner in the 21st century so far won at either SAG or BAFTA. Davis won SAG and McDormand won BAFTA but this year at BAFTA, a jury of around 10 people chose the nominations in the acting and directing categories for the first time this century and actresses like Davis, Mulligan, and Day did not receive a nomination, probably as a result. In the end, I feel that BAFTA would have gone to Mulligan without the juries and that the two somewhat similar roles from Day and Davis might cancel each other out a bit and Mulligan will prevail.

Nominees:

Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG

Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG

Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

Pick: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya has taken the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, SAG award, and BAFTA for his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. While some say that Lakeith Stanfield’s surprise inclusion here could siphon votes away from Kaluuya, Kaluuya is the only acting sweeper this year and I think he is too far ahead at this point to lose.

Nominees:

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

Pick: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

2020 – Laura Dern – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2019 – Regina King – GG, CCA

2018 – Allison Janney – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2017 – Viola Davis – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2016 – Alicia Vikander – SAG, CCA

2015 – Patricia Arquette – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

Even though some say Glenn Close is still in this race, I really think that the Razie nomination may have been the nail in the coffin for her. So in my mind this is between Youn Yuh-Jung and Maria Bakalova. The former has won the SAG and BAFTA awards while the latter has won the Critics Choice award. Even though purely comedic performances aren’t often recognized in this category, Bakalova’s performance is one that has transcended that bias as even who have not even watched the movie know about the quality and success of her performance. Youn’s performance in Minari is more of a traditional winner in this category and this is an excellent place to award Minari especially when it will likely not win anywhere else. Since I think Minari has a lot of love, I am going with Youn.

Nominees:

Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – SAG, BAFTA

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman – The Father

Amanda Seyfried – Mank

Pick: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari