Awards Insights

Tag: oscars 2023

  • Everything Everywhere All at Once Will Win Best Picture

    Everything Everywhere All at Once Will Win Best Picture

    Since 2015, when Todd McCarthy’s Spotlight won Best Picture, there has been a constant among the films the Academy has awarded with their highest honor: a sociocultural awareness. This is not to say the Academy’s desire to choose a socially aware film to represent what they believe to be the best of the year is new, far from it. In 1968, a famously landmark year for American political activism that saw major leaps in the public consciousness’ awareness of movements promoting anti-war sentiment, civil rights, women’s rights, LGBTQ rights, etc., the Sidney Poitier-starring In the Heat of the Night was declared the Academy’s winner. It’s no accident that a film featuring a white and Black man working together to solve a murder case in a racist contemporary Mississippi town won in a year where societal cognizance about injustices towards minority and marginalized groups was at a peak. All of this is to say that when political passion is at a high, Academy members do tend to lean towards media that they feel reflects and/or represents the sociocultural awareness they want to see.  

    Now for almost a decade, American culture has experienced an incredible amount of political passion and polarization and while this politicization has seen highs and lows during this timeframe, it has consistently been higher during this period than it has been in around 50 years. What this means is that the Academy choosing films like Spotlight (a film that celebrates journalists by telling the story of the intrepid Boston Globe reporters who uncovered widespread sex abuse among clergy in the Boston area), Moonlight (a coming-of-age story charting the early life of a young gay, Black man dealing with his identity), The Shape of Water (a love story between a deaf woman and a fish man, conveying the message that everybody deserves love no matter how different they seem), Green Book (a buddy film telling the story of an Italian-American bouncer hired to drive an African-American pianist on his tour of the South), Parasite (an examination of class discrimination through the lens of a home invasion thriller), Nomadland (a film that tells the story of a woman who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, becomes a nomad), and CODA (the story of a deaf family and their daughter who works to pursue her passion for music) is telling. Now I don’t enjoy reducing these films to these short descriptions because the majority of them are fantastic works of art that transcend these easy attempts to identify what they’re about, but I only hope to illustrate that they all share a level of consciousness over contemporary sociocultural issues. 

    This trend shows no signs of stopping anytime soon and therefore we must consider this factor when prognosticating our Best Picture winner. At this point in the season, we’ve established that our three frontrunners are Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and The Banshees of Inisherin. These films have appeared at all the major precursors, they all have the Golden Globe nomination trifecta, and have found success with the critics’ groups. However, in my eyes, Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the pack. Both The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin don’t explicitly deal with any major sociocultural dilemma while EEAAO tackles themes of generational trauma and the experiences of immigrants (and their children) in America. On top of that, the film is probably one of the biggest word-of-mouth successes of the year and has sustained its momentum all the way from its original theatrical release in March. 

    Some may say that the old guard of the Academy won’t go for a film as wacky, deeply genre, and/or crude as EEAAO. But if the success of films like The Shape of Water, Get Out, and Parasite have shown anything it’s that these elements are not as much of a detriment in the eyes of the Academy as they used to be. If a film is beloved enough, which EEAAO most definitely is, it forgoes the need to conform to many of the traditional markings of a Best Picture winner. In my view, the film has the perfect cocktail of qualities on its side and doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon. Don’t be surprised to see the Daniels and the rest of their team on the stage waving that little gold man at the end of Oscar night. 

  • Golden Globes Nominations 2023: ‘Banshees’ Leads With 8, ‘Everything Everywhere’ and ‘Fabelmans’ Cement Themselves as the Frontrunners

    Golden Globes Nominations 2023: ‘Banshees’ Leads With 8, ‘Everything Everywhere’ and ‘Fabelmans’ Cement Themselves as the Frontrunners

    The Golden Globes released their slate of nominees this morning, shedding further light on what to expect this awards season. One thing I always mention when the Golden Globe noms are released is the stat that in the last 10 years (in all years except the most recent), the eventual Best Picture winner was nominated for a Best Film, Director, and Screenplay award at the Globes before going on to win Oscar’s biggest prize.

    This year, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Banshees of Inisherin received that nomination trifecta, cementing those films as the three biggest players of the season. The former pair will likely be the two biggest frontrunners and I predict EEAAO will end up winning it all in the end.

    Another stat I want to mention is that in the last ten years, at least four of the five nominees in Best Film – Drama went on to earn Best Picture nominations later on in their respective years. That means that at most one of Avatar 2, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tar, and Top Gun: Maverick won’t make the slate. I think that film is most likely to be Avatar 2 (my current BP slate being EEAAO, The Fabelmans, ‘Banshees’, Tar, Women Talking, Babylon, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, She Said). However, there is also a pretty good chance that all the films nominated here will make it in, hopefully the CCA nominations coming out on Wednesday will provide another piece of the puzzle.

    Here are the 2023 Golden Globe nominees:

    Film

    Best Picture (Drama)

    • Avatar: The Way of Water
    • Elvis
    • The Fabelmans
    • Tar
    • Top Gun: Maverick

    Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)

    • Babylon
    • The Banshees of Inisherin
    • Everything Everywhere All at Once
    • Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
    • Triangle of Sadness

    Best Animated Film

    • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
    • Inu-Oh
    • Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
    • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
    • Turning Red

    Best Picture (Non-English Language)

    • All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
    • Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
    • Close (Belgium)
    • Decision to Leave (South Korea)
    • RRR (India)

    Best Actress (Drama)

    • Cate Blanchett (Tar)
    • Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)
    • Viola Davis (The Woman King)
    • Ana de Armas (Blonde)
    • Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

    Best Actor (Drama)

    • Austin Butler (Elvis)
    • Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
    • Hugh Jackman (The Son)
    • Bill Nighy (Living)
    • Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

    Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

    • Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)
    • Margot Robbie (Babylon)
    • Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu)
    • Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)
    • Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

    • Diego Calva (Babylon)
    • Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
    • Adam Driver (White Noise)
    • Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    • Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)

    Best Supporting Actress

    • Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
    • Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    • Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
    • Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
    • Carey Mulligan (She Said)

    Best Supporting Actor

    • Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    • Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    • Brad Pitt (Babylon)
    • Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
    • Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

    Best Director

    • James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
    • Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
    • Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
    • Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    • Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

    Best Screenplay

    • The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh
    • Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
    • The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner
    • Tar, Todd Field
    • Women Talking, Sarah Polley

    Best Original Score

    • Babylon, Justin Hurwitz
    • The Banshees of Inisherin, Carter Burwell
    • The Fabelmans, John Williams
    • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Alexandre Desplat
    • Women Talking, Hildur Guðnadóttir

    Best Original Song

    • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Lift Me Up” by Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Ryan Coogler
    • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Ciao Papa” by Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro
    • RRR, “Naatu Naatu” by Kala Bhairava, M.M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj
    • Top Gun: Maverick, “Hold My Hand” by Lady Gaga, Bloodpop, Benjamin Rice
    • Where the Crawdads Sing, “Carolina” by Taylor Swift

    TV

    Best Drama Series

    • Better Call Saul
    • The Crown
    • House of the Dragon
    • Ozark
    • Severance

    Best Musical or Comedy Series

    • Abbott Elementary
    • The Bear
    • Hacks
    • Only Murders in the Building
    • Wednesday

    Best Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie

    • Black Bird
    • Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
    • The Dropout
    • Pam and Tommy
    • The White Lotus

    Best Actress (Drama)

    • Emma D’Arcy (House of the Dragon)
    • Laura Linney (Ozark)
    • Imelda Staunton (The Crown)
    • Hilary Swank (Alaska Daily)
    • Zendaya (Euphoria)

    Best Actor (Drama)

    • Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)
    • Kevin Costner (Yellowstone)
    • Diego Luna (Andor)
    • Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
    • Adam Scott (Severance)

    Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

    • Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
    • Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
    • Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)
    • Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
    • Jean Smart (Hacks)

    Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

    • Donald Glover (Atlanta)
    • Bill Hader (Barry)
    • Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
    • Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
    • Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

    Best Supporting Actress (Musical, Comedy or Drama)

    • Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
    • Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
    • Julia Garner (Ozark)
    • Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
    • Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)

    Best Supporting Actor (Musical, Comedy or Drama)

    • John Lithgow (The Old Man)
    • Jonathan Pryce (The Crown)
    • John Turturro (Severance)
    • Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
    • Henry Winkler (Barry)

    Best Actress (Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie)

    • Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy)
    • Julia Garner (Inventing Anna)
    • Lily James (Pam and Tommy)
    • Julia Roberts (Gaslit)
    • Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout)

    Best Actor (Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie)

    • Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
    • Colin Firth (The Staircase)
    • Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven)
    • Evan Peters (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
    • Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy)

    Best Supporting Actress (Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie)

    • Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
    • Claire Danes (Fleishman Is in Trouble)
    • Daisy Edgar-Jones (Under the Banner of Heaven)
    • Niecy Nash (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
    • Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus)

    Best Supporting Actor (Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie)

    • F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus)
    • Domhnall Gleeson (The Patient)
    • Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)
    • Richard Jenkins (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
    • Seth Rogen (Pam and Tommy)

    Source: CNET

  • AFI Top 10 Announced: No Major Misses as This Year’s Contenders Become Much Clearer

    AFI Top 10 Announced: No Major Misses as This Year’s Contenders Become Much Clearer

    The AFI awards are announced over a month before nominations are released yet are consistently one of the most consistently strong predictors of the Best Picture slate. Last year, Drive My Car was the only Best Picture nominee that didn’t appear in AFI’s slate and in the last seven years, in a single year, a max of two films have made Best Picture without hitting AFI. That trend shows no signs of stopping and with that, here is AFI’s slate.

    AFI Movies of the Year

    • “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
    • “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    • “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
    • “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
    • “Nope” (Universal Pictures)
    • “She Said” (Universal Pictures)
    • “Tár” (Focus Features)
    • “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
    • “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
    • “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

    AFI Television Programs of the Year

    • “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
    • “The Bear” (FX)
    • “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
    • “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    • “Mo” (Netflix)
    • “Pachinko” (Apple TV+)
    • “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
    • “Severance” (Apple TV+)
    • “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)
    • “The White Lotus” (HBO)

    AFI Special Award

    • “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

    Source: Variety

    In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

    • 2022 – 9 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Drive My Car)
    • 2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
    • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
    • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
    • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
    • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
    • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

    (Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2020 and 2019, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

    Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

    • Drive My Car – none
    • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
    • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
    • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
    • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
    • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
    • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
    • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
    • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
    • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

    It seems likely that around 2 to 4 of the 11 films chosen by AFI (including The Banshees of Inisherin’s Special Award), and if four films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): Nope, Avatar: The Way of the Water, The Woman King, and She Said.

  • National Board of Review Releases Their Top 10; ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Named Best Film

    National Board of Review Releases Their Top 10; ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Named Best Film

    ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ won its first major award and the second major critics award of the year (after Tar won NYFCC on December 2nd). Claudio Miranda also picked up his second major cinematography prize after starting the season by triumphing at NYFCC. Both my top frontrunners (Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans) both made the cut, cementing their place as the top of this year’s contenders.

    The Banshees of Inisherin also performed well, winning for both its stars Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson (in Best Actor and Supporting Actor respectively) and in Original Screenplay. ‘Banshees’, along with Women Talking and NYFCC winner Tar (which did not make the cut here) round out the top five strongest players.

    NBR is our first semi-strong predictor of the Best Picture nominee slate, here is its track record in the past 10 years:

    2012 — 7/9
    2013 — 5/9
    2014 — 4/8
    2015 — 5/8
    2016 — 7/9
    2017 — 6/9 (The Shape of Water was not picked by the NBR)
    2018 — 4/8
    2019 — 6/9 (Parasite won Best Foreign Language Film)
    2020 — 5/8                                                                                                                                                                                       2021 – 7/10

    Also, in the last 10 years every eventual Best Picture winner except for The Shape of Water in 2017 was a member of the NBR’s Top 10 Films, which makes it seem very likely that the eventual Best Picture winner from this year will one of the 10 films chosen by the NBR.

    Here are the National Board of Review’s 2022 honorees:

    Best Film
    Top Gun: Maverick

    Best Director
    Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

    Best Actor
    Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Actress
    Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Best Supporting Actor
    Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Supporting Actress
    Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

    Best Original Screenplay
    Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front

    Breakthrough Performance
    Danielle Deadwyler, Till

    Breakthrough Performance
    Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

    Best Directorial Debut
    Charlotte Wells, Aftersun

    Best Animated Feature
    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

    Best International Film
    Close

    Best Documentary
    Sr.

    Best Ensemble
    Women Talking

    Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography
    Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick

    NBR Freedom of Expression Awards

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    Argentina, 1985

    Top Films (in alphabetical order):

    Aftersun

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Fabelmans

    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

    RRR

    Till

    The Woman King

    Women Talking

    Top 5 International Films (in alphabetical order)

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Argentina, 1985

    Decision to Leave

    EO

    Saint Omer

    Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    All That Breathes

    Descendant

    Turn Every Page – The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb

    Wildcat

    Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)

    Armageddon Time

    Emily the Criminal

    The Eternal Daughter

    Funny Pages

    The Inspection

    Living

    A Love Song

    Nanny

    The Wonder

    To Leslie

    Source: Deadline

     

    Based on NBR’s track record, we can assume that it’s pretty likely that at least 6 of the 11 films picked by NBR will go on to become Best Picture nominees. In my mind, this is the list of NBR’s top eleven films in order of their likelihood to get a BP nomination: Everything Everywhere All at Once (my predicted winner at this stage), The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking, Top Gun: Maverick, Glass Onion, Till, Aftersun, The Woman King, Avatar: The Way of the Water, RRR.

    With AFI coming out with its list tomorrow, Oscar season is truly coming into full swing!

  • Venice 2022 Lineup Announced: Baumbach’s ‘White Noise’ To Open Festival

    Venice 2022 Lineup Announced: Baumbach’s ‘White Noise’ To Open Festival

    The lineup for this year’s Venice Film Festival was just announced. This is the first major festival lineup announcement of the Oscar season and it gives us our first introductory look at this year’s possible contenders. In five of the past six years, a top two Picture contender has played at Venice and this trend shows no signs of stopping.

    In my predictions from last month, I have three of the films that have shown up in the Venice lineup in the top 10: The Son, Bardo, and White Noise. While I’m not confident that any of these films will become a top 2 Best Picture contender this season, I’m essentially guaranteeing that one of them will end up being a top 5 contender (The Whale could end up being the Venice top 5 Picture contender as well).

    Anyways, here is the Venice slate:

    Opening Night

    “White Noise,” Noah Baumbach (in competition)

    Competition/Venezia 79

    “Il Signore delle Formiche,” Gianni Amelio

    “The Whale,” Darren Aronofsky

    “L’Immensita,” Emanuele Crialese

    “Saint Omer,” Alice Diop

    “Blonde,” Andrew Dominik

    “TÁR,” Todd Field

    “Love Life,” Koji Fukada

    “Bardo,” Alejandro González Iñárritu

    “Athena,” Romain Gavras

    “Bones and All,” Luca Guadagnino

    “The Eternal Daughter,” Joanna Hogg

    “Beyond the Wall,” Vahid Jalilvand

    “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Martin McDonagh

    “Argentina, 1985,” Santiago Mitre

    “Chiara,” Susanna Nicchiarelli

    “Monica,” Andrea Pallaoro

    “No Bears,” Jafar Panahi

    “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” Laura Poitras

    “A Couple,” Frederick Wiseman

    “The Son,” Florian Zeller

    “Our Ties,” Roschdy Zem

    “Other People’s Children,” Rebecca Zlotowski

    Out of Competition (Fiction)

    Closing Film: “The Hanging Sun,” Francesco Carrozzini

    “When the Waves Are Gone,” Lav Diaz

    “Living,” Oliver Hermanus

    “Dead for a Dollar,” Walter Hill

    “Call of God,” Kim Ki-duk

    “Dreamin’ Wild,” Bill Pohlad

    “Master Gardener,” Paul Schrader

    “Siccita,” Paolo Virzi

    “Pearl,” Ti West

    “Don’t Worry Darling,” Olivia Wilde

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 6 years:

    2021 – In Competition: The Power of the Dog; Out of Competition: Dune

    2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)

    2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story

    2018 – In Competition: The Favourite, Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born

    2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land; Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge

    Based on this, it would be reasonable to suspect that at least two fiction films from this year’s in competition and out of competition slates will make it in Best Picture.

    In order of likelihood that will probably be Bardo, The Son, White Noise, The Whale, Don’t Worry Darling, and then The Banshees of Inisherin. Bardo and The Son are my current picks to become Best Picture nominees and I fear that White Noise might suffer the same fate that many other Venice openers have since La La Land in 2016 where they come from big auteurs yet aren’t met with the expected praise (Downsizing, First Man, and The Truth all fit this mold).

    Here is the rest of the slate:

    Out of Competition (Non Fiction)

    “Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom,” Evgeny Afineevsky

    “The Matchmaker,” Benedetta Argentieri

    “Gli Ultima Giorni Dell’Umanita,” Enrico Ghezzi, Alessandro Gagliardo

    “A Compassionate Spy,” Steve James

    “Music for Black Pigeons,” Jorgen Leth and Andreas Koefoed

    “The Kiev Trial,” Sergei Loznitsa

    “In Viaggio,” Gianfranco Rosi

    “Bobby White Ghetto President,” Christopher Sharp and Moses Bwayo

    “Nuclear,” Oliver Stone

    Out of Competition (Series)

    “The Kingdom Exodus,” Lars von Trier

    “Copenhagen Cowboy,” Nicolas Winding Refn

    Horizons/Orizzonti

    “Princess,” Roberto de Paolis

    “Victim,” Michal Blanko

    “On the Fringe,” Juan Diego Botto

    “Trenque Lauquen,” Laura Citarella

    “Vera,” Tizza Covi, Rainer Frimmel

    “Innocence,” Guy Davidi

    “Blanquita,” Fernando Guzzoni

    “Pour La France (For My Country,” Rachid Hami

    “A Man,” Kei Ishikawa

    “Bread and Salt,” Damian Kocur

    “Luxembourg, Luxembourg,” Antonio Lukich

    “Ti Mangio IL Cuore,” Pippo Mezzapesa

    “To the North,” Mihai Mincan

    “Autobiography,” Makbul Mubarak

    “La Syndicaliste (The Sitting Duck),” Jean-Paul Salomé

    “World War III,” Houman Seyedi

    “The Happiest Man in the World,” Teona Strugar Mitevska

    “The Bride,” Sérgio Tréfaut

    Horizons/Orizzonti Extra

    “Origin of Evil,” Sébastien Marnier

    “Hanging Gardens,” Ahmed Yassin Al Daradji

    “Amanda,” Carolina Cavalli

    “Red Shoes,” Carlos Eichelmann Kaiser

    “Nezouh,” Soudade Kaadan

    “Notte Fantasma,” Fulvio Risuleo

    “Without Her,” Arian Vazirdaftari

    “Valeria Is Getting Married,” Michal Vinik

    “Goliath,” Adilkhan Yerzhanov

    Source: IndieWire

  • 2023 Oscars: Late June Predictions

    2023 Oscars: Late June Predictions

    Since my last predictions there have been a couple of major developments. Firstly, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things featuring Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, and Willem Dafoe (among others) was moved by Searchlight to 2023. Other than being a vehicle for Stone and a possible Picture contender, Lanthimos’ film will undoubtedly be a major tech player when it releases in 2023. There have also been a couple of new releases since late May, most notably, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick. Elvis currently has a 64 Metascore and a 7.8 on IMDb signaling to me that it is a music biopic that does have a chance to get a Picture nod yet needs a few of the contenders to be knocked off for Baz Luhrmann’s film to be considered locked. Other than being a major player for its young star Austin Butler, Elvis, like most Luhrmann films, should perform well with the techs (specifically in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). Top Gun: Maverick quickly became the biggest movie of the year and with its 78 Metascore and 8.6 rating on IMDb, one of the year’s most beloved as well. Now, some people think the film will get a Best Picture nod. But I don’t think so and believe its peak is a Star Wars: The Force Awakens trajectory: a massive blockbuster that missed Picture and all above-the-line categories but took an Editing nod. Joseph Kosinski’s film is definitely the kind of film that can win sound and editing if Elvis, Babylon, or Everything Everywhere All at Once can’t get those inevitably paired awards for themselves.

    Other than these developments, nothing much has changed as Killers of the Flower Moon, The Fabelmans, Babylon, and Everything Everywhere All At Once are the remaining films most locked for a Picture nod. The latter film has stayed strong since its April release and its popularity shows no signs of stopping. This is the kind of momentum that I think can last the whole season and can likely help the film nab one above-the-line category win (like when the February released Get Out won Original Screenplay) or maybe propel the film to undeniable future Picture winner status.

    Anyways, here are the predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Women Talking (MGM)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

    Empire of Light (Searchlight)

    She Said (Universal)

    White Noise (Netflix)

    The Son (Sony Classics)

    Bardo (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Elvis, Shirley, Next Goal Wins, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar 2, The Whale, Thirteen Lives, Rustin, Maestro, Decision to Leave, Tar, The Banshees of Inisherin, Amsterdam, Asteroid City, Till, Close, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Damien Chazelle – Babylon

    Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Hugh Jackman – The Son

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Could Jump In: Adam Driver – White Noise, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Margot Robbie – Babylon

    Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Regina King – Shirley

    Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

    Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Carey Mulligan – She Said, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Helen Mirren – Golda, Danielle Deadwyler – Till, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Brad Pitt – Babylon

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Laura Dern – The Son

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

    Jean Smart – Babylon

    Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Hong Chau – The Whale, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Everything Everywhere All At Once

    The Fabelmans

    Empire of Light

    Babylon

    Bardo

    Could Jump In: Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Women Talking

    White Noise

    She Said

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Son

    Could Jump In: The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Pinocchio

    Turning Red

    Wendell and Wild

    Lightyear

    Apollo 10 ½

    Could Jump In: The Bad Guys

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Amsterdam

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City, Empire of Light

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Babylon

    Empire of Light

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City, Bardo

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Amsterdam

    Don’t Worry, Darling

    Elvis

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Jump In: Persuasion, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans, I Wanna Dance With Somebody

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Blonde

    Could Jump In: The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon

     

    BEST SOUND

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Avatar II

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Thor: Love and Thunder

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Jurassic World: Dominion

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Fabelmans

    The Batman

    Babylon

    She Said

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Bardo

    Decision to Leave

    Close

    Broker

    Triangle of Sadness

    Could Jump In: Holy Spider, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita

  • 2023 Oscars: Late May Predictions

    2023 Oscars: Late May Predictions

    Cannes just finished up with Ruben Ostlund’s Triangle of Sadness shocking the world and taking the Palme D’Or. While I doubt this will have any effect on the Oscar race, I believe that at least one film that premiered at Cannes will make it into the Best Picture that is something international like Decision to Leave or a major studio film that premiered out of competition like Elvis. Elvis could go the Bohemian Rhapsody route in that it’s a popular yet not too critically-acclaimed music biopic with a lauded central performance I personally don’t think that Elvis will be the juggernaut Bohemian Rhapsody was, but the film should nab noms for Austin Butler and in some below-the-line categories.

    So what are this year’s frontrunners? The consensus picks seem to be Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, and Damien Chazelle’s Babylon. If these films are released this year they are essentially guaranteed Best Picture nominations in my mind. Of these films, Scorsese’s effort seems to me the most likely winner. It’s a drama centering on an FBI investigation of murders of members of the Osage tribe in the 1920s. It’s a Scorsese film so it’s almost guaranteed to be critically-acclaimed and it has the social relevance factor through its likely examination of themes such as racism and American expansionism. Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All at Once are, to me, the films I am most confident about rounding out the top five of the Best Picture race.

    (A little digression about Everything Everywhere All at Once which I’ve now seen twice in theaters:

    Coming into the film I heard many people comparing it to Marvel movies and to martial arts films, which piqued my interest since when has an A24 film ever been compared to anything made by Marvel? Still, the comparison that captured my mind the most was one where the film was said to be like “It’s a Wonderful Life”. It’s a connection that, on the surface, seems completely absurd. How can the first movie you think of when you see a colorful action film centering on a multiverse be a black-and-white drama from the 1940s? It’s a Wonderful Life is one of my absolute favorite films so I was excited to see this comparison come to life and, after watching it, it’s absolutely justified.

    On the most obvious level, both films use a sci-fi conceit to reveal universal truths about the importance of love: It’s a Wonderful Life with the idea of seeing what the world would be like if you’ve never existed and Everything Everywhere All at Once with the idea of seeing what your life would be like if you made different decisions through the medium of a multiverse. Both films illustrate the beauty of human connection in an immensely profound way. Both are incredibly life-affirming experiences that somehow reach their audiences in their cores and allow them to feel the importance of the seemingly mundane. They’re both films that love their audience and are incredibly humanist works that call for love and unity. But, most importantly of all to me, they’re both remarkably sincere films. Themes, messages, moments, and pieces of dialogue that would seem overly-saccharine, unearned, trite, or corny in other films don’t come off as such in these due to their utter honesty. You’d might think with the fantastical moments that both of these films have they wouldn’t reach their audiences as powerfully as they do, but I’d argue that they reach their audiences so profoundly due to those premises. I won’t elaborate further into that for obvious reasons, but the films’ premises are an instrumental aspect of what make them as powerful as they are. To me, no moment in these films come off as overwrought due to many elements especially the acting and storytelling. You feel for these characters and it’s obvious that the filmmakers love their characters as well, even with all their shortcomings and mistakes.)

    Netflix has a massive slate this year but none seem like sure things. The streamer has Noah Baumbach’s White Noise and Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, two civil rights biopics in Shirley and Rustin, and also David Fincher’s The Killer and Tobias Lindholm’s The Good Nurse. Seeing what they prioritize will be one of the biggest questions for the studio that still hasn’t won a Best Picture Oscar.

    Anyways, here are my predictions for May and my first predictions for the 2023 Oscars:

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)

    Women Talking (MGM)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    White Noise (Netflix)

    She Said (Universal)

    Empire of Light (Searchlight)

    Thirteen Lives (MGM)

    Rustin (Netflix)

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

     

    Could Jump In:

    Amsterdam (20th Century)

    Bardo (N/A)

    Elvis (Warner Bros.)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Shirley (Netflix)

    Decision to Leave (MUBI)

    Don’t Worry, Darling (Warner Bros.)

    Till (UA/MGM)

    Asteroid City (N/A)

    Armageddon Time (Focus)

    Avatar 2 (20th Century)

    Napoleon (Apple)

    The Son (Sony Classics)

    The Woman King (Sony)

    The Good Nurse (Netflix)

    The Killer (Netflix)

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)

    Nope (Universal)

    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM)

    The Greatest Beer Run Ever

    I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony)

    Tar (Focus)

    Disappointment Blvd. (A24)

    Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)

    The Lost King (N/A)

    Bones and All

    The Whale (A24)

    Longer Shots:

    Emancipation

    Broker (N/A)

    Holy Spider (N/A)

    RMN (N/A)

    Alcarras (MK2)

    The Wonder (Netflix)

    Crimes of the Future (Neon)

    Iao Capitano (01 Distribution)

    Monica (N/A)

    Rheingold (N/A)

    Showing Up (A24)

    The Way of the Wind (N/A)

    Tori and Lokita (N/A)

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Damien Chazelle – Babylon

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Adam Driver – White Noise

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Could Jump In: Hugh Jackman – The Son, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Joaquin Phoenix – Disappointment Blvd., Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody

    Carey Mulligan – She Said

    Margot Robbie – Babylon

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

    Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Regina King – Shirley, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Helen Mirren – Golda, Emma Thompson – Good Luck, Leo Grande, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Brad Pitt – Babylon

    Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

    Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon, Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Jean Smart – Babylon

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Laura Dern – The Son

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

    Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Hong Chau – The Whale, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Empire of Light

    Babylon

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Bardo, Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    White Noise

    Women Talking

    She Said

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: The Son, The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Lightyear

    Turning Red

    Wendell and Wild

    Pinocchio

    The Bad Guys

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Poor Things

    Amsterdam

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Elvis, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Babylon

    Empire of Light

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Elvis, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Poor Things

    Amsterdam

    Don’t Worry, Darling

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Elvis

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: Blonde, The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon

     

    BEST SOUND

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Thor: Love and Thunder

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Jurassic World: Dominion

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Fabelmans

    The Batman

    Babylon

    She Said

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Bardo

    Decision to Leave

    Close

    Triangle of Sadness

    Holy Spider

    Could Jump In: Broker, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita