Tag: oscar

  • FINAL Oscar Nominations 2020 Predictions

    FINAL Oscar Nominations 2020 Predictions

    The time has come. After months of speculation the Oscar nominations will be released on Monday.

    Here are my predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Parasite

    The Irishman

    1917

    Marriage Story

    Joker

    Jojo Rabbit

    Little Women

    Ford v Ferrari

    Could Jump In: The Two Popes, The Farewell, Knives Out, Bombshell

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, 1917, Marriage Story, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and Ford v Ferrari are the films that got both Critics’ Choice and Producers Guild nominations. In the past 4 years, only two films have not received a Best Picture nomination after getting those two notices, The Big Sick and Sicario. The Big Sick was mainly a comedy and the Academy does have a bias against that genre of film. Sicario was an action-thriller and would have probably been nominated if Mad Max: Fury Road, the superior action-thriller, had not been released in the same year.

    Little Women received enough support from BAFTA and a PGA nomination showing that it has enough support to get a nomination. Now, Ford v Ferrari is in the 9th spot and I believe it could get realistically switched out with The Two Popes. The Two Popes seems like a film that Oscar voters loved and that could push it into the field. However, Ford v Ferrari got both a Critics Choice nomination and a PGA nomination so its support seems widespread. Also, if The Two Popes were to receive a Best Picture nomination it would be the third Netflix film to do so this year. And streaming-bias is still very much alive among the Hollywood elite so this outcome is unlikely.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

    Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Sam Mendes -1917

    Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

    Greta Gerwig – Little Women

    Could Jump In: Todd Phillips – Joker, Taika Waititi, Noah Baumbach

    Bong Joon-Ho, Quentin Tarantino, Sam Mendes, and Martin Scorsese seem to be guaranteed a spot in this field because of their nominations at most major awards precursor, but there is a chance that one of them (I think Scorsese) might be snubbed.

    Little Women has received the support it has needed at the correct time and because of that, Gerwig could deservedly get her second Best Director nomination (Becoming the first woman ever to do that). The Academy has undoubtedly heard the public outcry over the lack of female directors and will hopefully respond by acknowledging this great film and its great director. Todd Phillips seems like the more obvious choice to take the 5th spot in this race, but his lack of a Directors Guild nomination coupled with the Academy likely viewing him as a comedy director (as they did with Peter Farrelly who did not get nominated in Best Director even though his film Green Book eventually won Best Picture) might keep on the sidelines for this race.

    BEST ACTOR

    Adam Driver – Marriage Story

    Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Taron Egerton – Rocketman

    Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

    Could Jump In: Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari, Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes, Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name

    Adam Driver, Joaquin Phoenix, and Leonardo DiCaprio have all received nominations from BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and the Screen Actors Guild, but while Driver and Phoenix seem very secure, DiCaprio’s lack of success at the Golden Globes makes him very snubbable.

    Taron Egerton had the perfect push at the perfect time with his Golden Globe award and BAFTA nomination and seems to be mostly secured in the race. Antonio Banderas, however, has not found the same success at the major awards as he has only a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nomination, but his beautiful performance should be able to carry its weight into this category. There is usually one actor who gets nominated for the SAG award and not the Oscar and that seems to be Christian Bale, who did not get the BAFTA nomination that would have secured his place in the race. The person who did get that BAFTA nom was Jonathan Pryce who could get be a spoiler come Monday.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Renee Zellweger – Judy

    Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

    Charlize Theron – Bombshell

    Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

    Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

    Could Jump In: Lupita Nyong’o – Us, Awkwafina – The Farewell

    Renee Zellweger, ScarJo, and Charlize Theron all received BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice award nominations. Erivo and Ronan each missed one of those (Erivo missed BAFTA and Ronan missed SAG) making them vulnerable for their spots to be taken by Nyong’o who has been racking up second-tier precursor awards left and right. But the fact that Nyong’o’s performance is in a horror movie that she will likely be the sole nomination of diminishes her chances.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joe Pesci – The Irishman

    Al Pacino – The Irishman

    Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

    Song Kang-Ho – Parasite

    Could Jump In: Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes, Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy

    Brad Pitt, Joe Pesci, Al Pacino, and Tom Hanks have all received the Big 4 Oscar precursors (BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice), but Tom Hanks has had similar scenarios play out with him failing getting an Oscar nomination (Case in point his performances in Saving Mr. Banks, Captain Phillips, which was an especially egregious omission, and Sully).

    Parasite is getting so much love from both film critics and movie buffs alike. Song Kang-Ho should be able to ride that wave of support on his way to a nomination, but if he doesn’t, look for Anthony Hopkins to earn a spot. Hopkins has nabbed three (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes) of the Big 4 precursors, while Song has 0.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Laura Dern – Marriage Story

    Margot Robbie – Bombshell

    Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

    Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

    Florence Pugh – Little Women

    Could Jump In: Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

    Laura Dern and Margot Robbie are the two actresses with the Big 4 precursors in this category and are secure for nominations. Jennifer Lopez didn’t get BAFTA but that was likely a major outlier, so she should be secure as well. Scarlett Johansson and Florence Pugh each received two of the Big 4 precursors, but Zhao Shuzhen could get in for the kind of performance that the Academy loves. If Johansson gets a nomination here and in Best Actress she would be the first actor to get a nomination in two categories since Cate Blanchett at the 2008 Oscars, which would be the Oscars way of saying sorry for not nominating her for anything, ever (even Lost in Translation!).

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Marriage Story

    Parasite

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Knives Out

    1917

    Could Jump In: Booksmart, The Farewell

    Marriage Story and Parasite have received all Big 4 writing precursors (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and Writers’ Guild of America (WGA)) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would have most likely hit the WGA if Quentin Tarantino was a member of the Writers’ Guild.

    Where it gets confusing is the last two spots, Knives Out, 1917, Booksmart, or The Farewell could take these two spots. Knives Out seems more likely than the others as it is an on-the-bubble Best Picture nomination contender where the script is an enormous part of the film’s appeal (I think Knives Out is great, by the way). Now for the last spot, I decided to choose the film with the best Best Picture chances which was 1917. While 1917 is a war film and that genre of film does not usually get screenplay nominations (see: Dunkirk and Hacksaw Ridge), it got a WGA nomination. Booksmart got both a WGA nomination and a BAFTA nomination so it would probably get an Oscar original screenplay nomination as well if it wasn’t for its lackluster box office performance and lack of presence whatsoever in the Best Picture race. People are pointing to Bridesmaids as a female-fronted comedy that got an original screenplay nomination at the Oscars, but that film had some exposure in the Best Picture conversation (It got both a SAG and PGA nomination), which Booksmart does not. The Farewell could get in as a spoiler, but just doesn’t seem to have enough people talking about it.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Irishman

    Jojo Rabbit

    Little Women

    The Two Popes

    Joker

    Could Jump In: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

    This is one of the most secure categories at the Oscars this year. However, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood still has a chance to shock.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Toy Story 4

    Missing Link

    Frozen 2

    I Lost My Body

    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

    Could Jump In: Klaus, Abominable

    This is pretty much locked, but Klaus or Abominable could replace I Lost My Body or How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    1917

    The Irishman

    Jojo Rabbit

    Joker

    Could Jump In: Parasite, Little Women

    I could see Jojo Rabbit or Joker dropping out to make way for Parasite. Even though Parasite is set in a contemporary time period, which could be detrimental in this category, a whole village was created for the film.

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    1917

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    The Irishman

    Joker

    Ford v Ferrari

    Could Jump In: The Lighthouse, Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

    I really want to put The Lighthouse in the top 5, but all of the other films that have done amazing at the cinematography precursors are legitimate Best Picture nomination contenders. I also don’t think the Oscars believe that they have to give The Lighthouse a nomination here. The last two times Best Cinematography was a film’s only Oscar nomination were the films Prisoners and Silence. The former was because Prisoners was shot by the GOAT Roger Deakins and the latter was because Silence was directed by Martin Scorsese and Best Cinematography was the best place to give it a nomination.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Little Women

    Rocketman

    Dolemite is My Name

    Jojo Rabbit

    Could Jump In: The Irishman, Downtown Abbey

    This is a mostly fixed category with The Irishman’s Sandy Powell (3-time Oscar winner) poised for an upset.

    BEST EDITING

    Ford v Ferrari

    The Irishman

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joker

    Parasite

    Could Jump In: Jojo Rabbit, 1917

    If a movie wants to win Best Picture they have to have a nomination here (unless you are 1917 in which case you don’t have to because 1917 was made to look like it wasn’t edited). Jojo Rabbit could get a nomination instead of Parasite or Joker.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Bombshell

    Joker

    Rocketman

    Judy

    Dolemite is My Name

    Could Jump In: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Downtown Abbey, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    This is the first year that this category is five nominations (it has been three nominations most years) and with that change comes a different kind of uncertainty that we don’t have in any other category. We don’t have a full idea of what this branch likes and doesn’t like.

    BEST SOUND MIXING

    1917

    Ford v Ferrari

    Rocketman

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joker

    Could Jump In: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker could jump in pretty easily here and it would have if there weren’t so many movies in the Best Picture conversation in this category.

    BEST SOUND EDITING

    1917

    Ford v Ferrari

    Joker

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Could Jump In: Avengers: Endgame, Rocketman

    The real question in many of these technical categories is whether The Academy will lean more toward Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker or Avengers: Endgame.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Lion King

    Avengers: Endgame

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    The Irishman

    1917

    Could Jump In: Alita: Battle Angel, Gemini Man, Terminator: Dark Fate

    Like I said before they could knock out either Star Wars or Avengers. Alita has a good chance of taking 1917’s 5th spot.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    1917

    Joker

    Little Women

    Marriage Story

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Could Jump In: Jojo Rabbit

    This category also seems pretty much locked with Jojo Rabbit, Us, or Pain and Glory maybe making a move into the fray.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    Frozen 2

    Rocketman

    Harriet

    The Lion King

    Wild Rose

    Could Jump In: Toy Story 4, Breakthrough, Parasite

    The first four have all been nominated for a Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe award. Wild Rose seems like it can be that less-known that everybody is looking up on Monday.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    For Sama

    American Factory

    Apollo 11

    Honeyland

    One Child Nation

    Could Jump In: Maiden, The Biggest Little Farm

    I’ve seen that many other pundits have been saying that Apollo 11 could get snubbed like Won’t You Be My Neighbor (last year’s frontrunner) did last year. I’m not predicting that, but I can see it happening.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Parasite

    Pain and Glory

    Les Miserables

    Atlantics

    Those Who Remained

    Could Jump In: Beanpole, Corpus Christi

    Parasite is going to win this and the first three are going to get a nomination. There is usually one Holocaust-related film in the mix, this year Those Who Remained and Corpus Christi are those films. Those Who Remained is a more easily-digestible film (if there is such a Holocaust film) and therefore has a better chance of getting a nomination.

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    Hair Love

    Kitbull

    The Physics of Sorrow

    Hors Piste

    Mind My Mind

    Could Jump In: Daughter, Sister, Memorable

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Learning To Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re A Girl)

    Fire in Paradise

    St. Louis Superman

    Stay Close

    In the Absence

    Could Jump In: Walk Run Cha-Cha, After Maria, Life Overtakes Me, The Nightcrawlers

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    Brotherhood

    Little Hands

    Neighbors’ Window

    Refugee

    Nefta Football Club

    Could Jump In: A Sister, Miller and Son

  • Christmas Oscar Predictions

    Christmas Oscar Predictions

    MERRY CHRISTMAS!

    Here is my Christmas present to you all:

    BEST PICTURE

    The Irishman

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Parasite

    Marriage Story

    1917

    Jojo Rabbit

    Joker

    Ford v Ferrari

    Bombshell

    Could Jump In: Little Women, The Farewell, The Two Popes, Richard Jewell, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory

    Like in Best Picture, The Irishman, Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood all have a very realistic chance of winning Best Director. Martin Scorsese recently said that The Irishman could be his last film and the Academy could award one of the greatest directors of all time a second Best Director prize (after his long-awaited one for The Departed) to close off his career. Quentin Tarantino has maintained for years that it’s his plan to make 10 original films and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would be his 9th. Quentin Tarantino is also one of the foremost directors of the modern era and he has never won a Best Director Oscar (He has won 2 Oscars for Best Original Screenplay for Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained).

    Finally, Bong Joon-Ho has in many opinions, the best film of the year and a film that could easily factor into the top 10 of many-a-critic’s best-of-decade lists. Parasite has a lot of love and could very realistically win Best Picture, but it could follow in the footsteps of Roma and lose out on that coveted award while still winning Best Director. Out of the last 10 Best Director winners, 7 of them have been from non-English-speaking countries, while only 3 of these 7 directors’ films went on to win Best Picture. As of right now, Bong Joon-Ho and Parasite are likely to continue this trend. The other spots are mostly locked for Mendes and Baumbach

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

    Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

    Sam Mendes – 1917

    Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story

    Could Jump In: Greta Gerwig – Little Women, Todd Phillips – Joker, Pedro Almodovar – Pain and Glory, James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari

    Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix are the only actors that are secure for a nomination with both having a chance for a win. The other 3 spots could be filled by any 8 actors that all have a realistic chance of jumping into the fray. But there really are 5 other actors that could jump into the list: Leonardo DiCaprio, Antonio Banderas, Christian Bale, Taron Egerton, and Eddie Murphy. I also don’t think Christian Bale and Taron Egerton can be on the same ballot nor can Antonio Banderas and Eddie Murphy. The latter is because of the unfortunate “diversity pick”. Hopefully, this will change as the Academy is becoming more diverse but historically there is usually only one non-White performer in an acting category.

    BEST ACTOR

    Adam Driver – Marriage Story

    Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

    Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari

    Could Jump in: Taron Egerton – Rocketman, Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name, Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes, Robert De Niro – The Irishman, Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

    With the lackluster performance of Little Women so far this awards season, Saoirse Ronan drops out of the 5, while Lupita Nyong’o, the critics’ leader in the Best Actress race, comes in. While there is an obvious stigma against the horror genre, case in point Toni Colette not getting an Oscar nomination even though she was last year’s Best Actress critics leader for her role in Hereditary, Nyong’o has received a SAG nomination which is already better than Colette. Still, if Nyong’o suffers genre bias, Ronan will probably enter the final five.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Renee Zellweger – Judy

    Scarlett Johansson- Marriage Story

    Charlize Theron – Bombshell

    Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

    Lupita Nyong’o – Us

    Could Jump In: Saoirse Ronan – Little Women, Awkwafina – The Farewell

    With the SAG ensemble nomination for Parasite, one of this film’s actors should get a nomination. Since he is his film’s only performer getting palpable recognition from various critics’ groups, Song Kang-Ho leaps into the race. Anthony Hopkins drops due to his film’s lack of momentum in the awards race and because the four other performers in the Best Supporting Actor race have nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and the Screen Actors Guild awards bodies, while Hopkins only has mentions from the former two. Brad Pitt is essentially a sure shot to win this award; he has never won an acting Oscar, he is a certifiable A-List movie star, and the critics’ leader in this category. Unless something absolutely ludicrous occurs, Pitt should be receiving a golden statue.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joe Pesci – The Irishman

    Al Pacino – The Irishman

    Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Nieghborhood

    Song Kang-Ho – Parasite

    Could Jump In: Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes, Alan Alda – Marriage Story, Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse, Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy, Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell

    Laura Dern should win this category with Jennifer Lopez her only realistic challenger at this point in the race. Even though The Farewell’s Oscar prospects seem to be diminishing, Zhao Shuzhen is sticking in the race for me. The Academy is becoming more diverse and that should help her attain a much-deserved nomination that might’ve not been hers 5, 10 years ago. With a SAG ensemble nomination for Jojo Rabbit, there should be an acting nomination for one of its wonderful cast members, but both Scarlett Johansson and Thomasin McKenzie delivered amazing performances in that film, which could cause splitting of votes. In the end, BAFTA historically provides the last piece of the puzzle, especially in this race.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Laura Dern – Marriage Story

    Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

    Margot Robbie – Bombshell

    Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

    Florence Pugh – Little Women

    Could Jump In: Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit, Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell, Annette Bening – The Report, Nicole Kidman – Bombshell

    Any of these top 3 could win this award come Oscar night, but I believe that it really will come down to Marriage Story and Parasite. Marriage Story and Parasite are both battling out for the lead choice among the critics’ associations and both could translate into an Oscar win. Marriage Story has a better chance as an English-language film, but there is precedent for a foreign-language film winning Best Original Screenplay, Pedro Almodovar’s Talk to Her was the only such winner this century. However, when there is an international film that is an all-timer, it has almost always been nominated for Best Original Screenplay (see: Amour and A Separation). Onto the other contenders, if Bombshell becomes a major contender we should see Charles Randolph’s (Oscar winner for The Big Short) script get nominated as well. Nevertheless, this lineup seems pretty rigid.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Marriage Story

    Parasite

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    The Farewell

    Knives Out

    Could Jump In: Bombshell, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory

    This category’s nominations are pretty much locked, unless A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood makes a surprise Best Picture run, but other than that moderately unlikely occurrence these are the films that should get nominated.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Irishman

    Jojo Rabbit

    The Two Popes

    Joker

    Little Women

    Could Jump In: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

    My picks here have stayed the same for a couple of months now, just a few changes in the order have been done.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Toy Story 4

    I Lost My Body

    Frozen 2

    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

    Missing Link

    Could Jump In: Klaus, Weathering With You

    While there is a case for the placement of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker here, the film’s middling reviews (that I don’t entirely agree with) probably keep it from getting any more than the Sound categories, Visual Effects, and Original Score for John Williams. The Academy also has an affinity for period films in this category, which is an umbrella that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, The Irishman, and Jojo Rabbit fall under. If Little Women has a late-breaking resurgence, which I think it will have, it will probably replace Jojo Rabbit in this category.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    1917

    The Irishman

    Parasite

    Jojo Rabbit

    Could Jump In: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Little Women, Joker, The Two Popes

    Roger Deakins could deservedly win Best Cinematography for the work shown in the 1917 trailer alone and he probably will win his 2ndOscar for shooting the “one-take” war film. Ford v Ferrari and Portrait of a Lady on Fire both have a chance to jump in.

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    1917

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    The Irishman

    Joker

    The Lighthouse

    Could Jump In: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Ford v Ferrari, Parasite, A Hidden Life

    This is likely what the lineup will be with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood winning it easily.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Dolemite is My Name

    Little Women

    Downtown Abbey

    Rocketman

    Could Jump In: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Judy

    For a film to win Best Picture it has to be nominated here. The only time that wasn’t the case is with Birdman which was made to look like it wasn’t cut. War films usually do well in this category, but, like Birdman, this year’s war picture 1917 is made to look like it was all shot in one take. All the other films, excluding Ford v Ferrari, are top-tier Best Picture contenders that need a nomination in this category to cross the finish line on Oscar night.

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Irishman

    Ford v Ferrari

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Parasite

    Marriage Story

    Could Jump In: 1917, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Uncut Gems, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Joker might fall out of this due to the only special makeup and hairstyling being on the title character, but if the Academy goes by past trends it will get the nomination.

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Bombshell

    Judy

    Joker

    Rocketman

    Dolemite is My Name

    Could Jump In: Downtown Abbey, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

    An Oscar season’s war movie often gets the win in Sound Mixing (see: Hacksaw Ridge and Dunkirk), so I have 1917 winning. Musically-themed movies also do well in this category (see: Whiplash and Bohemian Rhapsody), so I have Rocketman getting a nomination.

    BEST SOUND MIXING

    1917

    Ford v Ferrari

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Rocketman

    Could Jump In: Joker, Avengers: Endgame, Ad Astra, The Irishman

    War films and action films also do well in this category, so 1917 and Ford v Ferrari should be neck and neck here.

    BEST SOUND EDITING

    1917

    Ford v Ferrari

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Joker

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Could Jump In: Avengers: Endgame, Ad Astra, Rocketman, The Irishman

    The Academy always seems to ignore the film with the enormous box office output in favor of the more “serious”, critically-acclaimed film. This year that film would seem to be The Irishman, however that film’s de-aging effects haven’t been universally praised and that might turn-off some voters. The Jungle Book won here 3 years ago and The Lion King could follow in its footsteps. I think that fans of big-budget blockbusters in the Academy could split between Endgame and The Rise of Skywalker, which could open the path for The Lion King to take this prize. While 1917 seems to be poised for a nomination, Alita: Battle Angel should get in for the narrative that it has “groundbreaking” visual effects, the same could happen for Gemini Man.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Lion King

    Avengers: Endgame

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    The Irishman

    Alita: Battle Angel

    Could Jump In: 1917, Gemini Man

    Thomas Newman has to win! He has had 14 nominations without any wins and his score for 1917 has been getting a lot of positive attention, so he has a real chance. All the other scores seem to be mostly secure. Nevertheless, this category is extremely prone to surprises (The “First Man getting SNUBBED last year” kind of surprises).

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    1917

    Joker

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

    Marriage Story

    Little Women

    Could Jump In: Ford v Ferrari, Us, Motherless Brooklyn

    The Lion King and Breakthrough (I’m not going to do a “Breakthrough breaking into” pun, you’re safe) could easily penetrate this lineup with Toy Story 4 and Wild Rose both susceptible to being dropped.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    Frozen 2

    Rocketman

    Harriet

    Wild Rose

    Toy Story 4

    Could Jump In: The Lion King, Breakthrough, Aladdin

    Maiden, The Biggest Little Farm, and The Cave could all break into the fray with all of these films, even Apollo 11, in danger of dropping out. This category is extremely unpredictable with perceived unbeatable frontrunners, such as last year’s Won’t You Be My Neighbor, not even getting a nomination.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Apollo 11

    For Sama

    American Factory

    One Child Nation

    Honeyland

    Could Jump In: Maiden, The Biggest Little Farm, The Cave, Midnight Family

    I don’t think anybody realistically thinks that Parasite is going to lose out on this prize, unless they believe this scenario will occur. Oscar voters vote for dark horse contenders because they believe all the other voters are going to choose Parasite.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE 

    Parasite

    Pain and Glory

    Les Miserables

    Atlantics

    Beanpole

    Could Jump In: Corpus Christi, The Painted Bird, Honeyland, Truth and Justice, Those Who Remained

  • Oscar Shortlists for 9 Categories Released

    Oscar Shortlists for 9 Categories Released

    Oscars.org
    Oscars.org

    On December 16th, the Academy for Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) revealed their picks for 9 categories.

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    The films, listed in alphabetical order by title, are:

    “Advocate”
    “American Factory”
    “The Apollo”
    “Apollo 11”
    “Aquarela”
    “The Biggest Little Farm”
    “The Cave”
    “The Edge of Democracy”
    “For Sama”
    “The Great Hack”
    “Honeyland”
    “Knock Down the House”
    “Maiden”
    “Midnight Family”
    “One Child Nation”

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

    The films, listed in alphabetical order by title, are:

    “After Maria”
    “Fire in Paradise”
    “Ghosts of Sugar Land”
    “In the Absence”
    “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)”
    “Life Overtakes Me”
    “The Nightcrawlers”
    “St. Louis Superman”
    “Stay Close”
    “Walk Run Cha-Cha”

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
    Ten films will advance to the next round of voting in the International Feature Film category (formerly known as Foreign Language Film) for the 92nd Academy Awards.  Ninety-one films were eligible in the category.

    Academy members from all branches were invited to participate in the preliminary round.  They must have viewed the submitted films theatrically and met a minimum viewing requirement to be eligible to vote in the category.  Their seven choices, augmented by three additional selections voted by the Academy’s International Feature Film Award Executive Committee, constitute the shortlist.

    In the nominations round, Academy members from all branches are invited to opt-in to participate and must view all 10 shortlisted films in order to cast a ballot.

    The films, listed in alphabetical order by country, are:

    Czech Republic, “The Painted Bird”
    Estonia, “Truth and Justice”
    France, “Les Misérables”
    Hungary, “Those Who Remained”
    North Macedonia, “Honeyland”
    Poland, “Corpus Christi”
    Russia, “Beanpole”
    Senegal, “Atlantics”
    South Korea, “Parasite”
    Spain, “Pain and Glory”

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
    Ten films will advance in the Makeup and Hairstyling category for the 92nd Academy Awards.  All members of the Academy’s Makeup Artists and Hairstylists Branch will be invited to view seven-minute excerpts from each of the 10 shortlisted films on Saturday, January 4, 2020.  Members will vote to nominate five films for final Oscar consideration.

    The films, listed in alphabetical order by title, are:

    “Bombshell”
    “Dolemite Is My Name”
    “Downton Abbey”
    “Joker”
    “Judy”
    “Little Women”
    “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”
    “1917”
    “Once upon a Time…in Hollywood”
    “Rocketman”

    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
    Fifteen scores will advance in the Original Score category for the 92nd Academy Awards.  One hundred seventy scores were eligible in the category.  Members of the Music Branch vote to determine the shortlist and the nominees.

    The scores, listed in alphabetical order by film title, are:

    “Avengers: Endgame”
    “Bombshell”
    “The Farewell”
    “Ford v Ferrari”
    “Frozen II”
    “Jojo Rabbit”
    “Joker”
    “The King”
    “Little Women”
    “Marriage Story”
    “Motherless Brooklyn”
    “1917”
    “Pain and Glory”
    “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
    “Us”

    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
    Fifteen songs will advance in the Original Song category for the 92nd Academy Awards.  Seventy-five songs were eligible in the category.  Members of the Music Branch vote to determine the shortlist and the nominees.

    The original songs, along with the motion picture in which each song is featured, are listed below in alphabetical order by film title and song title:

    “Speechless” from “Aladdin”
    “Letter To My Godfather” from “The Black Godfather”
    “I’m Standing With You” from “Breakthrough”
    “Da Bronx” from “The Bronx USA”
    “Into The Unknown” from “Frozen II”
    “Stand Up” from “Harriet”
    “Catchy Song” from “The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part”
    “Never Too Late” from “The Lion King”
    “Spirit” from “The Lion King”
    “Daily Battles” from “Motherless Brooklyn”
    “A Glass of Soju” from “Parasite”
    “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from “Rocketman”
    “High Above The Water” from “Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am”
    “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from “Toy Story 4”
    “Glasgow” from “Wild Rose”

    ANIMATED SHORT FILM
    Ten films will advance in the Animated Short Film category for the 92nd Academy Awards.  Ninety-two films qualified in the category.  Members of the Short Films and Feature Animation Branch vote to determine the shortlist and the nominees.

    The films, listed in alphabetical order by title, are:

    “Dcera (Daughter)”
    “Hair Love”
    “He Can’t Live without Cosmos”
    “Hors Piste”
    “Kitbull”
    “Memorable”
    “Mind My Mind”
    “The Physics of Sorrow”
    “Sister”
    “Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days”

    LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
    Ten films will advance in the Live Action Short Film category for the 92nd Academy Awards.  One hundred ninety-one films qualified in the category.  Members of the Short Films and Feature Animation Branch vote to determine the shortlist and the nominees.

    The films, listed in alphabetical order by title, are:

    “Brotherhood”
    “The Christmas Gift”
    “Little Hands”
    “Miller & Son”
    “Nefta Football Club”
    “The Neighbors’ Window”
    “Refugee”
    “Saria”
    “A Sister”
    “Sometimes, I Think about Dying”

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    Ten films remain in the running in the Visual Effects category for the 92nd Academy Awards.  The Visual Effects Branch Executive Committee determined the shortlist.  All members of the Visual Effects Branch will be invited to view 10-minute excerpts from each of the shortlisted films online or attend satellite bake-off screenings in January 2020.  Following the screenings, members will vote to nominate five films for final Oscar consideration.

    The films, listed in alphabetical order by title, are:

    “Alita: Battle Angel”
    “Avengers: Endgame”
    “Captain Marvel”
    “Cats”
    “Gemini Man”
    “The Irishman”
    “The Lion King”
    “1917”
    “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
    “Terminator: Dark Fate

  • Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG (Mostly) Shape Best Picture Race

    Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG (Mostly) Shape Best Picture Race

    These precursors in conjunction with the American Film Institute Top 10 and the National Board of Review Top Films should bring the Best Picture race into clearer view. Let’s start with the Critics Choice Awards. Their track record with the Best Picture race is very good. Here is a rundown of its track record with the last 5 Best Picture nominees: 2019: 7 of 8 Best Picture Nominees, 2018: 8 of 9, 2017: 8 of 9, 2016: 8 of 8, 2015: 7 of 8.

    This year’s Critics Choice nominations are: 1917, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, Uncut Gems. So based on their track record 7 or 8 of these films will be nominated for Best Picture. Now, if you look at the pattern there is usually that one film that breaks into Best Picture that wasn’t nominated for a Critics Choice award. Last year it was Bohemian Rhapsody that got in due to its great Golden Globe performance, spectacular $900 million box office for a “serious” film, and a SAG Cast Nomination. The year before it was Phantom Thread, which got in due to it being a critical favorite, its quality per-theater-average concerning box office, the narrative that it was the swan song of legendary 3-time Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis, and its performance in certain critics’ awards including its inclusion in the National Board of Review’s Top Films. In 2017, Hidden Figures was this lucky film and it got in on its great box office, SAG Cast Nomination, and inclusion in NBR’s Top Films.

    With all of this in mind it seems that all a film needs to get into Oscar Best Picture, if it hasn’t already been nominated for a Critics Choice Best Picture award, is box office success and success at a major precursor. Now the major contenders that weren’t nominated for a Critics Choice Award this year are: Bombshell, The Farewell, Richard Jewell, and The Two Popes.

    Bombshell hasn’t released yet, but it received a SAG Cast nomination and 3 other nominations from SAG. It seems to be somewhat like last year’s Best Picture nominee Vice in the sense that it is a real-life political story with OK-to-good reviews and performances that are getting recognition (Vice received Oscar nominations for Christian Bale, Amy Adams, and Sam Rockwell).

    The Farewell had box office success this summer on the indie circuit even though the film was mostly in Mandarin and the cast was full of relative unknowns, excluding Awkwafina. The film has seen success at various precursors but not at the volume I believe that it needs to be a Best Picture nominee. It still has to cross the barrier of it being a mostly-Mandarin film and even more there is already an East Asian-centric film (Parasite) that has a better chance of getting a Best Picture nomination (and maybe a win?). Knowing the Academy’s past track record with international releases it isn’t likely that two foreign-language films fill be on the Best Picture lineup, and it is less likely that two great works of Asian cinema will be featured on the same lineup. But I hope it happens, because The Farewell dfinitely deserves a nomination.

    Now onto Richard Jewell. This film broke into the Oscar race when it won 2 National Board of Review awards and was included into NBR’s Top 10 Films list. However, it hasn’t done very much since then other than a surprise Supporting Actress nomination at the Golden Globes for Kathy Bates (which I predicted!, sorry 🙂 ). Coupled with its disappointing opening weekend box office performance, I don’t see the film getting a nomination at the Oscars other than maybe one for Kathy Bates.

    Lastly, The Two Popes. I had this film about the Catholic Church in the thick of the Oscar race until late November when it failed to nab a position in the NBR or AFI Top 10 lists. Then it continued going down with its failure to get a Critics Choice nomination for Best Picture, but it has rebounded somewhat with a Best Film-Drama nomination at the Golden Globes. If the film wins any of the awards it is nominated for at the Golden Globes it will probably gain a Best Picture nomination, but both are not likely as of right now.

    Now, all of this comes together to form my Best Picture predictions for today. I have to say that 3 films, The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite, all have an extremely realistic chance of winning Best Picture.

    Nevertheless, here are the predictions!

    BEST PICTURE

    The Irishman

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Parasite

    Marriage Story

    1917

    Jojo Rabbit

    Joker

    Ford v Ferrari

    Bombshell

    Could Jump in: Little Women, The Farewell, The Two Popes, Richard Jewell

  • Early November 2020 Oscar Predictions

    Early November 2020 Oscar Predictions

    Since my last post, Bombshell and Little Women have screened to glowing reviews and enter the race. Little Women especially has received outstanding notices and I believe it is a lock for a Best Picture nomination. Now that all the contenders except 1917 and Richard Jewell have been screened we have a pretty good idea of the films that are locked and the films that are still on the bubble.

    The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, Marriage Story are all 99.9% locked for a nomination. Jojo Rabbit is close behind and 1917, even though it hasn’t been seen yet, has all signs pointing to it being great and a film that the Academy will be drawn to. Little Women is with them in that category of “Most Likely Will Get A Nomination”. The Two Popes is not in this category because it is a Netflix film and the Academy may not nominate it due to Netflix’s fraught relationship with film exhibitors. Finally, the slots where Bombshell and The Farewell are sitting in right now are the most shaky. Ford v Ferrari, Joker, or A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood could slip into these spots as the season progresses.

    BEST PICTURE

    “The Irishman” (Netflix)

    “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Sony Pictures)

    “Parasite” (Neon)

    “Marriage Story” (Netflix)

    “1917” (Universal)

    “Jojo Rabbit” (Fox Searchlight)

    “The Two Popes” (Netflix)

    “Little Women” (Sony Pictures)

    “Bombshell” (Lionsgate)

    “The Farewell” (A24)

    Others: “Ford v Ferrari” (20th Century Fox), “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” (Sony Pictures), “Joker” (Warner Bros.), “Waves” (A24), “A Hidden Life” (Fox Searchlight), “Just Mercy” (Warner Bros.), “Judy” (20th Century Fox), “Dark Waters” (Focus Features), “Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker” (Disney), “The Report” (Amazon)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

    Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

    Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story

    Sam Mendes – 1917

    Others: James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari, Greta Gerwig – Little Women, Fernando Meirelles – The Two Popes, Lulu Wang – The Farewell, Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

    BEST ACTOR

    Adam Driver – Marriage Story

    Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

    Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

    Others: Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name, Robert DeNiro – The Irishman, Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari, Taron Egerton – Rocketman, Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

    BEST ACTRESS

    Renee Zellweger – Judy

    Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

    Charlize Theron – Bombshell

    Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

    Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

    Others: Awkwafina – The Farewell, Lupita Nyong’o – Us, Alfre Woodard – Clemency, Jodie Turner-Smith – Queen and Slim, Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Al Pacino – The Irishman

    Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

    Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

    Joe Pesci – The Irishman

    Others: Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy, Wesley Snipes – Dolemite is My Name, Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse, Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit, Song Kang-Ho – Parasite

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Laura Dern – Marriage Story

    Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

    Margot Robbie – Bombshell (or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Florence Pugh – Little Women

    Shuzhen Zhao – The Farewell

    Others: Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit, Annette Bening – The Report, Scarlett Johansson – JoJo Rabbit, Maggie Smith – Downtown Abbey, Nicole Kidman – Bombshell

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Marriage Story

    Parasite

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Bombshell

    The Farewell

    Others: Knives Out, Dolemite is My Name, Booksmart, Waves, 1917

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Two Popes

    Jojo Rabbit

    The Irishman

    Little Women

    Just Mercy

    Others: Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Judy, Downtown Abbey, Dark Waters

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Toy Story 4

    Frozen 2

    I Lost My Body

    Missing Link

    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

    Others: Weathering With You, Funan, Klaus, Okko’s Inn, LEGO Movie 2

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    The Two Popes

    Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker

    Downtown Abbey

    Cats

    Others: Ad Astra, Little Women, The Irishman, 1917, Parasite

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    1917

    The Irishman

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    A Hidden Life

    Ford v Ferrari

    Others: Ad Astra, Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, The Lighthouse

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Dolemite is My Name

    Little Women

    Downtown Abbey

    Rocketman

    Others: Judy, The Irishman, Aladdin, Dumbo, The Aeronauts

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Irishman

    Ford v Ferrari

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Parasite

    Marriage Story

    Others: Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker, 1917, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes, Avengers: Endgame

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Bombshell

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Judy

    Joker

    Rocketman

    Others: The Two Popes, Downtown Abbey, The Irishman, Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker, Dolemite is My Name

    BEST SOUND MIXING

    Ford v Ferrari

    Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker

    Ad Astra

    1917

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Others: Rocketman, Avengers: Endgame, Judy, The Irishman, Cats

    BEST SOUND EDITING

    Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker

    1917

    Ford v Ferrari

    Ad Astra

    Avengers: Endgame

    Others: Cats, The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Joker, Gemini Man

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker

    The Irishman

    The Lion King

    Avengers: Endgame

    Ad Astra

    Others: The Aeronauts, Aladdin, Gemini Man, Captain Marvel, Spider-Man: Far From Home

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker

    1917

    Little Women

    Marriage Story

    Ford v Ferrari

    Others: Joker, Ad Astra, Waves, The Aeronauts, Harriet

    Frozen 2

    Rocketman

    Toy Story 4

    Aladdin

    Harriet

    Others: Cats, The Lion King, Motherless Brooklyn, Bombshell, Her Smell

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    American Factory

    Apollo 11

    One Child Nation

    The Cave

    The Biggest Little Farm

    Others: Maiden, Knock Down the House, Honeyland, Ask Dr. Ruth, Rolling Thunder Revue

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Parasite

    Pain and Glory

    Les Miserables

    Atlantics

    And Then We Danced

    Others: Monos, Beanpole, Invisible Life, The Whistlers, The Chambermaid