Awards Insights

Tag: Oscar race

Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

In the last five years, every film nominated in this category has been a Best Picture nominee, with the only exception being tick, tick…BOOM!, which was probably 11th in its year.

Like last year, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) are releasing their nominations on February 1st, a week after the Oscar nominations so we won’t have that guild to help us in predicting this category.

Of the seven films that I think can get nominated here, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things feel like locks as they’ve hit both precursors and are top five Best Picture contenders. The last two slots will be fought between Barbie, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, and Maestro.

Many have The Holdovers in Best Editing since they see it as a top two Picture contender but unlike last year’s The Banshees of Inisherin which was number two and received an Editing nod from BAFTA, The Holdovers didn’t receive a nod from either the CCA or BAFTA even though it performed well with both bodies. That leaves Barbie, Maestro, and Anatomy of a Fall. Anatomy of a Fall’s BAFTA success in conjunction with its critical success in this category makes it a likely pick here. It also won the Editing prize at the European Film Awards. Barbie and Maestro make sense as nominees as they’re the type of films that usually get nominated for Best Editing. Maestro has received a lot more love from critics’ groups in the Best Editing category and while I don’t think the film will get more than 5 or 6 nods, I think Editing makes sense.

BEST FILM EDITING

Oppenheimer – CCA, BAFTA

Killers of the Flower Moon – CCA, BAFTA

Poor Things – CCA, BAFTA

Anatomy of a Fall – BAFTA

Maestro – CCA

Could Jump In: The Holdovers, Barbie – CCA

Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Maestro have hit all the major precursors and are Best Picture nominees so they should be locked.

In my eyes, the lasts lot is between The Zone of Interest and El Conde. And while El Conde’s ASC nod is big it really comes down to The Zone of Interest being a major player this year and a Best Picture nominee. This is likely one of the more secure fives this year.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Oppenheimer – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

Killers of the Flower Moon – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

Poor Things – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

Maestro – ASC, CCA, BAFTA

The Zone of Interest – BAFTA

Could Jump In: El Conde – ASC, Saltburn – CCA

Barbie, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon are locked in for nominations as they’ve hit all the major precursors and are top five Best Picture nominees. Ridley Scott’s Napoleon also hit all three major precursors but as a non-Best Picture nominee, I hesitate to deem it locked. Oppenheimer is the presumed Best Picture winner and we will see it receiving support across the board, why not in Costume Design as well?

Wonka, Maestro, and The Color Purple all have the type of period costuming that the Academy likes to recognize in this category but the other films just seem stronger in this category. Maestro could possibly replace Napoleon but Napoleon’s costuming just seems objectively more deserving of a nomination.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Barbie – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Poor Things – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Killers of the Flower Moon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Napoleon – CCA, CDG, BAFTA

Oppenheimer – CDG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Maestro – CDG, Wonka – CCA, The Color Purple – CCA

January 21, 2024
Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

This year, two films seem locked for a mention come Tuesday morning: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron. They’ve hit all the major precursors and have the wide support needed to be confidently nominated in this category.

I think Elemental and Nimona will take the nest two slots. While Elemental received nods from the Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and the PGA, it missed a nomination from the Annies, which is a really crucial precursor in this category. However, I think it should still be safe. I think many will see it like last year’s Turning Red, few think it’s one of Pixar’s best work but it’s well animated and has a good message and is pretty much shoo-in for a nomination.

Nimona, on the other hand, was hugely successful at the Annies and was actually the nominations leader. The Academy shocked last year by nominating The Sea Beast, so they clearly have no reservations about nominating Netflix’s animated films. Even though Nimona’s only other nod was from the CCA, it’s received enough support where it’s pure quality will speak for itself.

In my mind, the last slot is between Suzume, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Robot Dreams. While Suzume received nods from both the Annies and the Globes, I don’t see the Academy nominating two anime films, especially when the last time they nominated in anime film here was Mirai in 2019. While TMNT has received pretty good critical and popular notices, something about it just doesn’t feel like something the Academy would go for. Maybe it’s the long title, maybe it’s the gen-Z humor but it reminds me of something like the LEGO Movie. A self-referential animated comedy that might be too fun for the Academy’s tastes. Robot Dreams is a sleeper contender. It’s the likely winner in the independent film category at the Annie Awards. It’s the kind of emotional, quirky, and human tearjerker that definitely will get nominated if enough people watch it, but will that happen? I think (and hope) it will.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

The Boy and the Heron – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA

Elemental – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA

Nimona – CCA, Annie

Robot Dreams – Annie (Indie)

Could Jump In: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem – Annie, CCA, PGA, Suzume – GG, Annie, The Super Mario Bros. Movie – GG, PGA

With A Hero missing two years ago and Decision to Leave missing last year, this category is very prone to snubs and surprises. That said, The Zone of Interest and Society of the Snow seem very locked in, the former is going to receive a Picture nomination, and the latter is poised to receive multiple below-the-line mentions.

This category is so unpredictable, there has been at least one massive shock nominee in the last three years. I would not be surprised if that happens again (even though there is a lower chance of that happening due to the rule change which will allow all Academy members to opt in to voting in this category if they say they’ve seen all the shortlisted films). With the ability for the whole Academy to vote, I can see the National Society of Film Critics pick for Best Foreign Film Fallen Leaves, legend Wim Wenders’ newest and audience fave Perfect Days, and the timely doc 20 Days in Mariupol. The Taste of Things and The Teachers’ Lounge feel like films that will miss to me. They don’t seem like they’ll leave the kind of emotional impact on their audiences that these five would.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

The Zone of Interest – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Society of the Snow – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Fallen Leaves – GG

Perfect Days – CCA

20 Days in Mariupol – BAFTA

Could Jump In: The Taste of Things – CCA, The Teachers’ Lounge, Totem, Four Daughters, Amerikatsi

20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, and Beyond Utopia feel pretty secure as nominees. The Eternal Memory seems like the kind of tearjerker that many will resonate with and I think it will get in as well. While Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie has had a lot of precursor nods, its exactly the kind of CCA winner that I see being snubbed completely. Four Daughters feels deeply relevant and while I think it will be nominated, I could see it missing for something like Bobi Wine: The People’s president or 32 Sounds.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

20 Days in Mariupol – CCA, CEH, PGA, BAFTA

American Symphony – CCA, PGA, BAFTA

Beyond Utopia – CCA, BAFTA

The Eternal Memory – CCA, CEH

Four Daughters – CEH

Could Jump In: Bobi Wine: The People’s President – IDA, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie – CCA, CEH, BAFTA, 32 Sounds – CEH

January 21, 2024
Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, And Animated Short

While the Academy has its pet themes and topics that it likes to reward in these categories, predicting them is mostly a crapshoot.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

The Anne Frank Gift Shop

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Red, White, and Blue

Invisible Border

The After

Could Jump In: The Shepherd, Knight of Fortune, Strange Way of Life

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The ABCs of Book Banning

The Last Repair Shop

Deciding Vote

Last Song From Kabul

The Barber of Little Rock

Could Jump In: Nai Nai and Wai Po, Camp Courage

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Once Upon a Studio

Letter to a Pig

Ninety-Five Senses

Pete

WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Could Jump In: Humo, 27, Eeva

January 20, 2024
FINAL 2024 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS: VISUAL EFFECTS, PRODUCTION DESIGN, MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

The two locks here seem to be The Creator and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. The Creator is this year’s likely winner and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 fills the superhero slot in this catgeory.

In addition to The Creator and Guardians, one other film also hit all the major Visual Effects precursors: Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning – Part 1. However, as this an action franchise known for its practical effects I doubt it will make it in. While last year’s Tom Cruise action vehicle Top Gun: Maverick was a shoo-in for a Visual Effects nod and was also a film consisting of primarily practical effects, that film was also a Best Picture nominee and one of the biggest films of last year. This is category where the Academy chooses to recognize action, sci-fi, and fantasy films they deem to be “highbrow” enough to warrant Academy attention. As a result, Godzilla Minus One, a film that marries kaiju thrills with affecting drama seems like exactly the type of film that gets recognized in this category.

The last two slots are difficult. In my eyes, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and Poor Things all have a good chance of making it in.

A lot of people are comparing Society of the Snow to last year’s All Quiet on the Western Front. Both are Netflix films, both are top contenders in Best International Feature in their respective years, and both were some of the top performers on the Oscar shortlists. However, unlike ‘All Quiet’, Society of the Snow did not have the massive BAFTA push that catapulted that war film to become a multi-Oscar winner. Society of the Snow also reminds me of last year’s Thirteen Lives. A film that was similarly very popular with audiences, was a story of survival in dire circumstances, and made the Visual Effects Oscar shortlist. While Thirteen Lives didn’t end up getting nominated last year, Society of the Snow has been shown love in many more categories than Thirteen Lives was last year. As a result, I see Society of the Snow receiving a nod here.

That leaves Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Poor Things. Both films have big things going for and against them. The last time an animated film was nominated in Visual Effects was Kubo and the Two Strings in 2017 (2019’s The Lion King can be argued to be an animated film, but it was billed as a “live-action” film). Across the Spider-Verse is an undeniable visual feast and its seven nominations from the Visual Effects Society epitomizes that. Kubo and the Two Strings received six VES nominations so Spider-Verse’s success with the group is reminiscent of a past animated Visual Effects nominee. With its 11 BAFTA nominations yesterday, Poor Things is on the rise right now. It’s also the only Best Picture nominee of the Visual Effects shortlist. However, I think that its Visual Effects elements are not the most notable parts of the film. Other than the animal hybrids, I’m not sure if anything else in the film jumps out to me as work that would be recognized in this category. I am going to go with ‘Spider-Verse’ but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy throws a curveball like “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” in this category.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Creator – CCA, BAFTA, VES (7x)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – CCA, BAFTA, VES (6x)

Godzilla Minus One – VES

Society of the Snow – VES (2x)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – CCA, VES (7x)

Could Jump In: Poor Things – BAFTA, CCA, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – VES, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning – Part 1 – BAFTA, CCA, VES,

Barbie, Poor Things, Oppenheimer, and Killers of the Flower Moon have hit all the major precursors and are exactly the type of Best Picture nominees with spectacular sets that get nominated here.

The last slot will be contested for by three films: Asteroid City, Napoleon, and The Zone of Interest. Wes Anderson’s last film The French Dispatch received a Production Design nod at BAFTA, yet didn’t receive an Oscar nomination in what was a less competitive year than this one. The French Dispatch also was generally more well-liked than Asteroid City. Napoleon seemed to be somewhat of a mixed bag with audiences, but it’s a massive medieval epic, much bigger than Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel, which was shut out on nominations morning. The Zone of Interest was a BAFTA nominee, yet as a British film I doubt we will see The Zone of Interest receiving the below-the-line success with the Academy that it did with the BAFTAs. Napoleon did well with the Oscar shortlists, receiving three mentions. As a result, I think it’s likely we’ll see it nominated somewhere, so I am going with it.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Barbie – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

Poor Things – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

Oppenheimer – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

Killers of the Flower Moon – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

Napoleon – ADG, SDSA

Could Jump In: Asteroid City – CCA, ADG, SDSA, The Zone of Interest – BAFTA, Saltburn – CCA, ADG, SDSA

Three films hit all four precursors and all three fit the mold of a nominee in this category. So the question is what will fill in those last two slots?

To me, those last two slots are between Society of the Snow, Beau is Afraid, Killers of the Flower Moon, Golda, and Napoleon.

Society of the Snow did well across the shortlists and the Makeup branch has historically been a lot better at recognizing non-English films than other branches have. The film has no precursor nods but it’s shortlist success spells a good omen for its nomination prospects. It also won Best Make-Up & Hair at the European Film Awards, which has increasingly become an important precursor for the Oscars as the Academy becomes more international. Beau is Afraid is the kind of wacky (and awesome!) pick that the Makeup branch that nominated Border could go for. That would be well-deserved, but I am going to play it safe and go with a period biopic that did well on the shortlists and go with Napoleon.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Maestro – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

Poor Things – CCA, MUAH (2x), BAFTA

Oppenheimer – CCA, MUAH, BAFTA

Society of the Snow

Napoleon – BAFTA

Could Jump In: Golda – MUAH, Beau is Afraid, Killers of the Flower Moon – BAFTA

January 19, 2024
Golden Globes 2024: ‘Oppenheimer’ Wins 5, ‘Succession’ 4

The Golden Globes saw big success for Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. The Universal film won Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, Best Original Score, and Best Drama. Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr., Nolan, and composer Ludwig Goransson will all most likely repeat their Globe success with Academy success.

Barbie showed itself to be a lot weaker at the Globes than many thought it would be. While the film was the nominations leader, it lost Best Comedy/Musical to Poor Things and Best Screenplay to Anatomy of a Fall. Interestingly enough, Anatomy of a Fall was the only nominee in that category that wasn’t also nominated in Best Director.

On the TV side, Succession, The Bear, and Beef swept the categories specific to their genre. As a result, there wasn’t much variety here.

Here is the full list of winners:

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
Maestro (Netflix)
Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (WINNER)
Past Lives (A24)
The Zone of Interest (A24)

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Air (Amazon MGM Studios)
American Fiction (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)
Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures)
The Holdovers (Focus Features)
May December (Netflix)
Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (WINNER)

Best Motion Picture – Animated

The Boy and the Heron (GKids) (WINNER)
Elemental (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures Releasing)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures)
Suzume (Crunchyroll / Sony Pictures Entertainment)
Wish (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures) (WINNER)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Paramount Pictures)
Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures Releasing)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures)
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (AMC Theatres Distribution)

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

Anatomy of a Fall, France (Neon) (WINNER)
Fallen Leaves, Finland (Mubi)
Io Capitano, Italy (Pathe Distribution)
Past Lives, United States (A24)
Society of the Snow, Spain (Netflix)
The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom/USA (A24)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (WINNER)
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Natalie Portman, May December
Alma Pöysti, Fallen Leaves
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things (WINNER)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Timothée Chalamet, Wonka
Matt Damon, Air
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (WINNER)
Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (WINNER)

Best Director — Motion Picture

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet, Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall (WINNER)

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

“Addicted to Romance,” She Came to Me, Music and lyrics by Bruce Springsteen
“Dance the Night,” Barbie, Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Dua Lipa, Caroline Ailin
“I’m Just Ken,” Barbie, Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt
“Peaches,” The Super Mario Bros. Move, Music and lyrics by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, John Spiker
“Road to Freedom,” Rustin, Music and lyrics by Lenny Kravitz
“What Was I Made For?” Barbie, Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish O’Connell, Finneas O’Connell (WINNER)

Best Original Score – Motion Picture

Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Joe Hisaishi, The Boy and the Heron
Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest
Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Television Series – Drama

1923 (Paramount+)
The Crown (Netflix)
The Diplomat (Netflix)
The Last of Us (HBO/Max)
The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Succession (HBO/Max) (WINNER)

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Barry (HBO/Max)
The Bear (FX) (WINNER)
Jury Duty (Amazon Freevee)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Best Television Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

All the Light We Cannot See (Netflix)
Beef (Netflix) (WINNER)
Daisy Jones & the Six (Prime Video)
Fargo (FX)
Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Helen Mirren, 1923
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Sarah Snook, Succession (WINNER)
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Emma Stone, The Curse

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Brian Cox, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession (WINNER)
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Dominic West, The Crown

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (WINNER)
Elle Fanning, The Great
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Bill Hader, Barry
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear (WINNER)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six
Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death
Juno Temple, Fargo
Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers
Ali Wong, Beef (WINNER)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers
Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones & the Six
Jon Hamm, Fargo
Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers
David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves
Steven Yeun, Beef (WINNER)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown (WINNER)
Abby Elliott, The Bear
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
J. Smith-Cameron, Succession
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession (WINNER)
James Marsden, Jury Duty
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Alan Ruck, Succession
Alexander Skarsgard, Succession

Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television

Ricky Gervais, Ricky Gervais: Armageddon (WINNER)
Trevor Noah, Trevor Noah: Where Was I
Chris Rock, Chris Rock: Selective Outrage
Amy Schumer, Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact
Sarah Silverman, Sarah Silverman: Someone You Love
Wanda Sykes, Wanda Sykes: I’m an Entertainer

Source: The Hollywood Reporter

January 8, 2024
Critics Choice Nominations: ‘Barbie’, ‘Oppenheimer’, ‘Poor Things’ Lead; ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ is Snubbed

This year’s Critics Choice Awards saw a glaring lack of nomination for non-English language features outside of the “Foreign Language” category. Both Anatomy of a Fall and LAFCA Best Film winner The Zone of Interest were snubbed from Best Picture. ‘Anatomy”s stars Sandra Huller and Milo Machado Graner received nods but the film missed in Original Screenplay and Editing.

The Color Purple rebounded from its Golden Globe miss with a Best Picture nomination here, something it needed to even have a chance at a Best Picture nomination. Saltburn also made it into Best Picture and also received nods in Cinematography and Production Design.

With the massive snubs for across the board for both major international contenders Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, I doubt that they will mean much for the Oscar race. The Academy has diverged greatly from the Critics Chouce Awards in their acknowledgement of international films in recent years, so this should not be too concerning. However, with the inclusion of The Color Purple in the Best Picture slate, there are now eleven films that I think have a realistic chance at an Oscar Best Picture nod: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Barbie, The Holdovers, Past Lives, American Fiction, Maestro, Anatomy of a Fall, The Color Purple, and The Zone of Interest. Either The Color Purple or The Zone of Interest will miss, time will tell which one.

Here are the Critics’ Choice Award nominees:

Best Picture

American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Saltburn

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Best Young Actor/Actress

Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
Ariana Greenblatt, Barbie
Calah Lane, Wonka
Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Madeleine Yuna Voyles, The Creator

Best Acting Ensemble

Air
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Adapted Screenplay

Kelly Fremon Craig, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Screenplay

Samy Burch, May December
Alex Convery, Air
Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer, Maestro
Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach, Barbie
David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Celine Song, Past Lives

Best Cinematography

Matthew Libatique, Maestro
Rodrigo Prieto, Barbie
Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robbie Ryan, Poor Things
Linus Sandgren, Saltburn
Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer

Best Production Design

Suzie Davies, Charlotte Dirickx, Saltburn
Ruth De Jong, Claire Kaufman, Oppenheimer
Jack Fisk, Adam Willis, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer, Barbie
James Price, Shona Heath, Szusza Mihalek, Poor Things
Adam Stockhausen, Kris Moran, Asteroid City

Best Editing

William Goldenberg – Air
Nick Houy – Barbie
Jennifer Lame – Oppenheimer
Yorgos Mavropsaridis – Poor Things
Thelma Schoonmaker – Killers of the Flower Moon
Michelle Tesoro – Maestro

Best Costume Design

Jacqueline Durran, Barbie
Lindy Hemming, Wonka
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Color Purple
Holly Waddington, Poor Things
Jacqueline West, Killers of the Flower Moon
Janty Yates, David Crossman, Napoleon

Best Hair and Makeup

Barbie
The Color Purple
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Priscilla

Best Visual Effects

The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Comedy

American Fiction
Barbie
Bottoms
The Holdovers
No Hard Feelings
Poor Things

Best Animated Film

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Wish

Best Foreign Language Film

Anatomy of a Fall
Godzilla Minus One
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Zone of Interest

Best Song

“Dance the Night,” Barbie
“I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
“Peaches,” The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“Road to Freedom,” Rustin
“This Wish,” Wish
“What Was I Made For,” Barbie

Best Score

Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
Michael Giacchino, Society of the Snow
Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Barbie

Source: Entertainment Weekly

December 13, 2023
Golden Globe Nominations: ‘Barbie’, ‘Oppenheimer’, and ‘Poor Things’ Lead the Pack

On the film side, this year’s Golden Globe nominations didn’t see any major snubs outside of The Color Purple missing in the Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy category. With the film missing here, at AFI, and with NBR last week, I think its Best Picture nomination chances are quickly dwindling and I am increasingly confident that my top 10 of Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Barbie, The Holdovers, Past Lives, American Fiction, Maestro, Anatomy of a Fall, and The Zone of Interest will be this year’s Best Picture nominees. If The Color Purple gets a Critics Choice nomination on Wednesday its back in the race but otherwise it seems that May December is the only film outside the top 10 that has a chance at a Best Picture nomination (and while I thought that film was fantastic, it’s not getting a Best Picture nomination). Critics Choice will be a major precursor as always so stay tuned for their picks on Wednesday.

One thing I always mention when the Golden Globe noms are released is the stat that in the last 15 years (in all years except 2021 when ‘CODA’ won Best Picture), the eventual Best Picture winner was nominated for a Best Film, Director, and Screenplay award at the Globes before going on to win Oscar’s biggest prize. This year, FIVE films, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, and Past Lives, achieved that trifecta. I think only those former three films have a chance at a Best Picture win and while my instincts are leaning towards Poor Things, both Oppenheimer and ‘Killers’ are incredibly strong possibilities.

On the TV side, there were many more snubs and surprises. Succession leading the nominations pack was expected but misses for Abbott Elementary stars Sheryl Lee Ralph and Tyler James Williams weren’t. While ‘Abbott’ won Best Film – Musical or Comedy at last year’s Globes, expect this year to be the year of The Bear, which was nominated in five categories.

See the full list of nominees below:

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
Maestro (Netflix)
Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Past Lives (A24)
The Zone of Interest (A24)

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Air (Amazon MGM Studios)
American Fiction (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)
Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures)
The Holdovers (Focus Features)
May December (Netflix)
Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Best Motion Picture – Animated

The Boy and the Heron (GKids)
Elemental (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures Releasing)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures)
Suzume (Crunchyroll / Sony Pictures Entertainment)
Wish (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Paramount Pictures)
Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures Releasing)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures)
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (AMC Theatres Distribution)

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

Anatomy of a Fall, France (Neon)
Fallen Leaves, Finland (Mubi)
Io Capitano, Italy (Pathe Distribution)
Past Lives, United States (A24)
Society of the Snow, Spain (Netflix)
The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom/USA (A24)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Natalie Portman, May December
Alma Pöysti, Fallen Leaves
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Timothée Chalamet, Wonka
Matt Damon, Air
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Best Director — Motion Picture

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet, Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

“Addicted to Romance,” She Came to Me, Music and lyrics by Bruce Springsteen
“Dance the Night,” Barbie, Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Dua Lipa, Caroline Ailin
“I’m Just Ken,” Barbie, Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt
“Peaches,” The Super Mario Bros. Move, Music and lyrics by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, John Spiker
“Road to Freedom,” Rustin, Music and lyrics by Lenny Kravitz
“What Was I Made For?” Barbie, Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish, Finneas

Best Original Score – Motion Picture

Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
Joe Hisaishi, The Boy and the Heron
Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest
Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Television Series – Drama

1923 (Paramount+)
The Crown (Netflix)
The Diplomat (Netflix)
The Last of Us (HBO/Max)
The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Succession (HBO/Max)

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Barry (HBO/Max)
The Bear (FX)
Jury Duty (Amazon Freevee)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Best Television Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

All the Light We Cannot See (Netflix)
Beef (Netflix)
Daisy Jones & the Six (Prime Video)
Fargo (FX)
Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Helen Mirren, 1923
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Sarah Snook, Succession
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Emma Stone, The Curse

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Brian Cox, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Dominic West, The Crown

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Elle Fanning, The Great
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Bill Hader, Barry
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six
Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death
Juno Temple, Fargo
Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers
Ali Wong, Beef

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers
Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones & the Six
Jon Hamm, Fargo
Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers
David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves
Steven Yeun, Beef

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Abby Elliott, The Bear
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
J. Smith-Cameron, Succession
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
James Marsden, Jury Duty
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Alan Ruck, Succession
Alexander Skarsgard, Succession

Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television

Ricky Gervais, Ricky Gervais: Armageddon
Trevor Noah, Trevor Noah: Where Was I
Chris Rock, Chris Rock: Selective Outrage
Amy Schumer, Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact
Sarah Silverman, Sarah Silverman: Someone You Love
Wanda Sykes, Wanda Sykes: I’m an Entertainer

Source: The Hollywood Reporter

December 11, 2023
No Major Surprises as the AFI Releases its Top 10
AFI’s Top 10 Films of the year released earlier today and saw little in terms of surprises. The Color Purple missed again following its snub at NBR while Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction rebounded from its NBR miss with an inclusion here.

This AFI Awards marks the first year in a while without an AFI Special Award that is traditionally awarded to international films. This means no AFI love for Anatomy of a Fall or The Zone of Interest, both films that would have likely competed for that Special Award.

AFI MOTION PICTURES OF THE YEAR

AMERICAN FICTION

BARBIE

THE HOLDOVERS

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

MAESTRO

MAY DECEMBER

OPPENHEIMER

PAST LIVES

POOR THINGS

SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

AFI TELEVISION PROGRAMS OF THE YEAR

ABBOTT ELEMENTARY

THE BEAR

BEEF

JURY DUTY

THE LAST OF US

THE MORNING SHOW

ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING

POKER FACE

RESERVATION DOGS

SUCCESSION

Source: IndieWire

In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.
- 2023 – 8 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front)
- 2022 – 9 of 10 (Missed: Drive My Car)
- 2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
- 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
- 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
- 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
- 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
- 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)
(Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2022, 2020 and 2019, The Banshees of Inisherin, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.
- All Quiet on The Western Front – Nominated at BAFTA (won as well)
- Triangle of Sadness – Nominated at the Golden Globes
- Drive My Car – none (won LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC trifecta though)
- The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
- Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
- Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
- Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
- Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
- Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
- Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
- Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
- Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
- The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
- Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards
It seems likely that around 1 to 3 of the 10 films chosen by AFI will miss, and if three films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): May December, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and Maestro.
December 8, 2023
‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Wins its Second Major Prize of the Season at the NBR Awards

Martin Scorsese’s ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ won Best Film from the National Board of Review. Scorsese, lead actress Lily Gladstone, and cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto won in their categories respectively as well. This year’s other top Best Picture contenders, Oppenheimer and Poor Things were among the NBR’s Top 10 Films, the latter winning Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor as well. Usually, at least one of NBR’s four acting winners go on to win the Oscar in their respective category and this year both Gladstone and Da’Vine Joy Randolph of The Holdovers are both strong contenders to translate their NBR wins in to Oscar glory. The Holdovers also won both Best Actor for lead Paul Giamatti and Best Original Screenplay.

In terms of misses, Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction and Blitz Bazawule’s The Color Purple were both noticeable exclusions. These are both films that will likely be chosen as some of the AFI’s Top Films and if they don’t that could mean trouble for their Oscar chances.

NBR is our first semi-strong predictor of the Best Picture nominee slate, here is its track record in the past 10 years:

2012 — 7/9

2013 — 5/9

2014 — 4/8

2015 — 5/8

2016 — 7/9

2017 — 6/9 (The Shape of Water was not picked by the NBR)

2018 — 4/8

2019 — 6/9 (Parasite won Best Foreign Language Film)

2020 — 5/8

2021 – 7/10

2022 – 6/10 (All Quiet on the Western Front was nominated for Best International Film)

Also, in the last 10 years every eventual Best Picture winner except for The Shape of Water in 2017 and CODA in 2021 (though that was chosen as one of NBR’s Top 10 Independent Films) was a member of the NBR’s Top 10 Films, which makes it seem very likely that the eventual Best Picture winner from this year will one of the 10 films chosen by the NBR.

Here are the National Board of Review’s 2023 honorees:

Best Film: Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
NBR Icon Award: Bradley Cooper
Best Original Screenplay: David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Breakthrough Performance: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Best Directorial Debut: Celine Song, Past Lives
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best International Film: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Documentary: Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Best Ensemble: The Iron Claw
Outstanding Achievement in Stunt Artistry: Director Chad Stahelski and stunt coordinators Stephen Dunlevy & Scott Rogers, John Wick: Chapter 4
Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Rodrigo Prieto, Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon

Top Films (in alphabetical order):
Barbie
The Boy and the Heron
Ferrari
The Holdovers
The Iron Claw
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things

Top 5 International Films (in alphabetical order):
La Chimera
Fallen Leaves
The Teachers’ Lounge
Tótem
The Zone of Interest

Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order):
20 Days in Mariupol
32 Sounds
The Eternal Memory
The Pigeon Tunnel
A Still Small Voice

Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order):
All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt
All of Us Strangers
BlackBerry
Earth Mama
Flora and Son
The Persian Version
Scrapper
Showing Up
Theater Camp
A Thousand and One

Source: The Hollywood Reporter

Based on NBR’s track record, we can assume that it’s pretty likely that at least 6 of the 1 films picked by NBR will go on to become Best Picture nominees. In my mind, this is the list of NBR’s top eleven films in order of their likelihood to get a BP nomination: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Barbie, The Holdovers, Past Lives, Maestro, The Iron Claw, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari. International Film winner Anatomy of a Fall and Top 5 International Film pick The Zone of Interest were both NBR inclusions and likely Best Picture nominees.

December 7, 2023
Early December Oscar Predictions

With Past Lives’ win at the Gothams, its chances of a Best Picture nomination seem increasingly cemented. Anatomy of a Fall’s two wins, in International Feature and Screenplay, also help to bolster its profile coming into the thick of Oscar season. While Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers went empty-handed at the Gothams, its leading four nominations and its three awards at the first stage of the British Independent Film Awards lead me to believe that it will find love somewhere on the Oscar nominations slate, in Adapted Screenplay at the least.

The Film Independent Spirit Awards saw nominations across the board for Past Lives, American Fiction, and May December. The Holdovers curiously missed in both Feature and Director but saw noms in Screenplay and Supporting Performance among others.

This season’s frontrunner is undeniably Oppenheimer. It’s both the big adult-oriented blockbuster and the critically-acclaimed studio biopic of the year. But that doesn’t mean I see it winning. The controversy over its lack of a Japanese perspective will hurt the film, thought it could still prevail nonetheless. Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon are the next strongest contenders. Both will likely rack up around ten nominations each.

The Holdovers has started its limited theatrical run, gaining raves from far and wide. This will likely be a top six contender, especially with the expected strong support from the actors branch.

The Zone of Interest is more relevant this year than director Jonathan Glazer could have ever imagined (or feared). With the genocide occurring in Gaza, Glazer’s study of humanity’s darkest corners is unfortunately a movie for our times. I think the power and relevance of this film is something that both Zionists and those in support of Palestine would agree on.

BEST PICTURE

Oppenheimer (Universal)

Poor Things (Searchlight)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)

Barbie (Warner Bros.)

The Holdovers (Focus)

American Fiction (MGM)

Past Lives (A24)

Maestro (Netflix)

Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

The Zone of Interest (A24)

Could Jump In: The Color Purple (Warner Bros.), All of Us Strangers (Searchlight), May December (Netflix), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony), The Iron Claw (A24), The Boy and the Heron (GKids), Saltburn (Amazon), Napoleon (Apple TV+), Origin (Neon), Priscilla (A24), Air (Amazon), Rustin (Netflix)

With Nolan’s win at the NYFCC, we will likely see him receive support from both the critics and guilds this season. I think this is a year where we will see a split between Screenplay and Director. I could easily see something like Oppenheimer win Director and then something like Poor Things or Killers of the Flower Moon win Adapted Screenplay. I am also pretty confident that Scorsese and Lanthimos will receive love here. Either one (or maybe both?) of European Film Award Best Director nominees Glazer or Triet will get in here. Glazer’s The Zone of Interest feels more like the “auteur high-concept film” that the Directors branch seems to like to nominate here and as a result, I think his nomination is very likely. Barbie is very much Gerwig’s film. Who would have thought a Mattel-produced Barbie film would be a vision of a feminist fantasia? It’s film conceived with Gerwig’s distinct signature and I think it’s likely that the Directors branch will reward her for that.

BEST DIRECTOR

Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things

Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

Greta Gerwig – Barbie

Could Jump In: Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall, Celine Song – Past Lives, Alexander Payne – The Holdovers, Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple, Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron, Ava DuVernay – Origin, Cord Jefferson – American Fiction, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

It’s still early but as of right now it seems like only seven performers can get nominated here: Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper, Jeffrey Wright, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Giamatti, Colman Domingo, and Andrew Scott. Which of these seven will be nominated, I’m not too sure though I think Scott might get in on love for All of Us Strangers (similar to how Paul Mescal got into Actor last year for Aftersun). Rustin might end up all but forgotten come Oscar nominations morning and while I thought Domingo was a frontrunner here early on in the season, I think his star has considerably fallen since then. Moving on to Paul Giamatti, in most reviews, people seem to believe that Giamatti is overshadowed by his costars and I think that could lead to him falling out of the five nominees. I also think Cooper has a high chance of missing here and I could easily see either Giamatti or Domingo replacing him in the top five.

What is not in question, however, is that Cillian Murphy is the frontrunner here. As the lead of the Best Picture favorite, the top biopic contender, and a beloved actor deeply overdue for Academy attention, Cillian Murphy is poised to control the season in this category. It’s the closest this year has to the transformative performances the Academy likes to reward in this category.

BEST ACTOR

Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Bradley Cooper – Maestro

Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers

Could Jump In: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Colman Domingo – Rustin, Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon, Barry Keoghan – Saltburn, Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest, Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love, Michael Fassbender – The Killer

Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. The battle of the two stones (sorry, had to do it). They will be at the top of this race until the end. Both are the leads of films that are top three Best Picture contenders. Both give powerful performances that are at the heart of their respective films. Both will receive critical and audience support throughout the season. Stone’s is the kind of transformative performance that the Academy tends to award in the lead acting categories but Gladstone, who broke out with her phenomenal work in Kelly Reichardt’s Certain Women, is the kind of young, never-nominated newcomer that the Academy sometimes likes to show love to in this category. This will likely be neck and neck until the end.

I think Huller’s nomination chances are also very high and after her I think the last two slots are pretty much up in the air. I think Maestro in general is vulnerable and as a result, I have a feeling that either Cooper or Mulligan, or both, miss in their respective categories. While Greta Lee hasn’t won any major critics awards yet, I think she will as the season goes on. With a Best Film win at the Gothams and with nominations across the board at the Indie Spirits I think Past Lives is a bigger contender than many think it is. As a result, I think it will be nominated for more above-the-line awards outside of Picture and Original Screenplay. Fantasia Barrino could be a major contender, but I just don’t know anything about the quality of her performance yet, so I’m gonna keep her at the six spot.

BEST ACTRESS

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

Emma Stone – Poor Things

Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan – Maestro

Greta Lee – Past Lives

Could Jump In: Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Margot Robbie – Barbie, Annette Bening – Nyad, Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla, Natalie Portman – May December, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin

While Robert de Niro’s work in Killers of the Flower Moon is the kind of performance that has been awarded here before, I think this category is between Downey Jr. and Gosling, both actors who have been nominated twice but have never won. Will the Academy go for a completely comedic performance? I doubt it, but if they do Gosling would be a very worthy winner. De Niro and Ruffalo fit the next two slots pretty comfortably, who will fill the last slot is a bigger question. I think it will be Gotham winner Melton. He seems like he will receive a big push from the critics, but don’t be surprised if Willem Dafoe or Dominic Sessa make it in instead.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling – Barbie

Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

Charles Melton – May December

Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction, John Magaro – Past Lives, Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers, Colman Domingo – The Color Purple,, Matt Damon – Oppenheimer, Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry

I think Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the clear frontrunner here. She is the heart and soul of The Holdovers and no other contender this year delivers at the level she does. I think Blunt is pretty much locked here but the rest of the slots are much more uncertain. I think in a category as up in the air as this one nominations-wise, I think someone incredibly beloved like Viola Davis could find her way with a surprise nomination in the mold of something like Denzel Washington’s nomination for Roman J. Israel Esq. Henson, Foster, and Cruz are also very possible contenders.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

Julianne Moore – May December

Viola Davis – Air

Could Jump In: Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple, Jodie Foster – Nyad, Penelope Cruz – Ferrari, Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest, America Ferrara – Barbie, Rosamund Pike – Saltburn

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Holdovers

Past Lives

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

May December

Could Jump In: Maestro, Asteroid City, Saltburn, Dream Scenario

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Poor Things

Killers of the Flower Moon

American Fiction

Oppenheimer

All of Us Strangers

Could Jump In: The Zone of Interest, The Color Purple, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret, Origin

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

The Peasants

Could Jump In: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wish, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Poor Things

Barbie

Napoleon

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Could Jump In: The Color Purple, Wonka, Asteroid City, Maestro

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Zone of Interest

Maestro

Could Jump In: Napoleon, The Color Purple, Saltburn, Barbie

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Poor Things

Barbie

The Color Purple

Wonka

Napoleon

Could Jump In: Killers of the Flower Moon, Priscilla, Oppenheimer, Chevalier, Maestro

BEST FILM EDITING

Oppenheimer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

Barbie

Anatomy of a Fall

Could Jump In: The Holdovers, Maestro, The Color Purple, American Fiction, Ferrari

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Barbie

Maestro

Poor Things

Wonka

The Color Purple

Could Jump In: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Oppenheimer, Nyad, Ferrari, Napoleon

BEST SOUND

Oppenheimer

Maestro

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Zone of Interest

Could Jump In: Ferrari, Napoleon, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, , Wonka, The Marvels. Barbie

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Oppenheimer

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

The Creator

Barbie

Could Jump In: The Little Mermaid, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Napoleon, Poor Things, Society of the Snow, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Oppenheimer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Zone of Interest

Could Jump In: Elemental, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Boy and the Heron, Past Lives, The Color Purple, Ferrari, Society of the Snow

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

The Zone of Interest (U.K.)

The Taste of Things (France)

The Society of the Snow (Spain)

Shayda (Australia)

The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)

Could Jump In: The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), The Promised Land (Denmark), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Settlers (Chile), Perfect Days (Japan)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

American Symphony

20 Days in Mariupol

Four Daughters

Kokomo City

The Eternal Memory

Could Jump In: Beyond Utopia, Still, The Deepest Breath

December 6, 2023