Tag: Oscar race

The Directors Guild of America, American Society of Cinematographers, Cinema Audio Society, USC Scripter, and Annie awards will all be announced this weekend.

Now, these are very influential precursors in their respective categories, and could turn the tide (especially DGA) of the race.

Out of these precursors, the Directors Guild of America shares the most membership with the academy and if something like Parasite wins here, that film will pick up a little bit more steam on its road to Best Picture. Still, I predict Sam Mendes for 1917 winning here as his film seems like more of a “directing” film.

Here are my predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1917

Parasite

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Joker

Jojo Rabbit

Marriage Story

Little Women

Ford v Ferrari

Three films, 1917, Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, all have good chances of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. 1917 has PGA and Golden Globe, Parasite has SAG (not eligible for the Drama and Comedy Golden Globe categories as it is a foreign film), and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has CCA and Golden Globe. PGA is the most predictive of these precursors, which is why 1917 is the frontrunner. BAFTA should tell us who is not going to win Best Picture (Seriously, they’ve been 0 for 5 the last 5 years, even though they were 6 for 6 the years before that), while DGA and WGA should give us an indication of where the Academy could be leaning.

DIRECTOR

Sam Mendes – 1917

Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

Todd Phillips – Joker

This award really comes down to DGA, if Bong Joon-Ho wins there he still has a chance to win Best Director at the Oscars (like Alejandro G. Inarittu for Birdman), but if he does not Sam Mendes will win. Mendes has the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice award (he tied with Bong Joon-Ho at CCA), so he is the frontrunner.

ACTOR

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Adam Driver – Marriage Story

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

These acting categories are essentially set in stone as all four have won awards at the Golden Globes, CCA, and SAG. However, if BAFTA does something crazy their might be chance for movement.

ACTRESS

Renee Zellweger – Judy

Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Charlize Theron – Bombshell

Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

Renee Zellweger is locked here, and I can not see her losing BAFTA

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Al Pacino – The Irishman

Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

Brad Pitt is going to sweep everything and win his first acting Oscar (he won for producing 12 Years a Slave).

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Florence Pugh – Little Women

Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell

This will probably be Marriage Story’s only Oscar, and Laura Dern will win her first Oscar.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Marriage Story

1917

Knives Out

I think that Parasite is going to win WGA and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood BAFTA. And if this happens, Parasite winning Best Original Screenplay will probably mean it will win Best Picture as well.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Little Women

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

The Two Popes

This film usually has gone to films that will not win any other awards in other categories. The problem is that Little Women (maybe Costume Design), Jojo Rabbit, and The Irishman all look like that at this point. But since Little Women did win at CCA and has had a groundswell of support at the perfect time, it should win.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Toy Story 4

Missing Link

Klaus

I Lost My Body

How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Toy Story 4 should win this even though Missing Link did surprise at the Golden Globes. Toy Story 4 did win PGA and CCA, which are better indicators. I think Klaus has more support than I Lost My Body and I believe it has a chance to be the dark horse in this race.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917

Parasite

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won the CCA for this category and Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh’s recreation of 1969 Los Angeles should be too much to turn down for Oscar voters.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Joker

The Lighthouse

I can not see how anybody else other than 1917’s Roger Deakins can win this. Maybe Onc… no Deakins is getting his Oscar.

COSTUME DESIGN

Little Women

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Jojo Rabbit

The Irishman

Joker

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Little Women could both win this. Production and costume design usually go hand and hand at the Oscars (3 of the last 5 Oscars had the same winner in these categories), but this seems like 2017 when La La Land won Production Design and Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them won Costume Design. “Hollywood” has flashier costumes than La La Land did, but Little Women has the turn of the century period costumes that this branch loves.

FILM EDITING

Ford v Ferrari

Parasite

Joker

Jojo Rabbit

The Irishman

This branch loves quick cuts and films that you know will be high-adrenaline coming in to the theater. I believe that Ford v Ferrari will win BAFTA and then take this at the Oscars. But if Parasite or Joker wins BAFTA, the film that wins will probably win.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Bombshell

Joker

Judy

1917

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Bombshell should win this as it uses makeup well on multiple characters and not just one like Judy and Joker.

SOUND MIXING

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joker

Ad Astra

1917 or Ford v Ferrari have very high chances of winning the sound categories, which is why I think they will split them. I’m looking at 2017 when Hacksaw Ridge won Sound Mixing, but Arrival won Sound Editing. This year’s war film, 1917, should follow the same pattern and win Sound Mixing while Ford v Ferrari will win Sound Editing.

SOUND EDITING

Ford v Ferrari

1917

Joker

Star Wars: The Rise of the Skywalker

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Lion King

Avengers: Endgame

The Irishman

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

1917

The Lion King could follow The Jungle Book and win with its portrayal of photorealistic animals in a photorealistic environment. Avengers: Endgame or The Irishman could also win this.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Joker

1917

Little Women

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Marriage Story

Hildur Guonadottir should win her first Oscar on her first nomination for her haunting work on Joker as she has won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards. Still, this is Thomas Newman’s fifteenth Oscar nomination, and he has not ever won. Is soaring score for 1917 could give him the win.

ORIGINAL SONG

Rocketman

Harriet

Frozen 2

Breakthrough

Toy Story 4

Rocketman has won the Golden Globe and CCA awards in this category and is showing no signs of stopping.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

American Factory

Honeyland

For Sama

The Cave

The Edge of Democracy

While American Factory is the frontrunner, Honeyland and For Sama pose very realistic threats. I think For Sama actually has a better chance than what most are thinking, but its lack of DGA and CCA nominations is slightly troubling.

ANIMATED SHORT

Hair Love

Kitbull

Sister

Daughter (Dcera)

Memorable

I saw and Kitbull and Hair Love and even though Kitbull is a Pixar product, Kitbull was too simple for me. It was a great short film, but Hair Love had multiple layers and that created a more emotional reaction.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

In the Absence

St. Louis Superman

Walk Run Cha-Cha

Life Overtakes Me

LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Brotherhood

Nefta Football Club

A Sister

The Neighbor’s Window

Saria

You can watch the shorts here: