Awards Insights

Tag: Oscar race

  • Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    Dune will be winning this category and that assertion truly isn’t up for debate. The question is, who will the four other nominees be?

    Well, first off, I don’t see a world where Spider-Man: No Way Home doesn’t get a nomination here and though it missed both BAFTA and CCA, it’s far and away the biggest movie of the year and this is where those films get their flowers.

    Shang-Chi was also a big hit and its 4 VES nods are definitely a positive indicator of it getting embraced. The last two slots, to me, are between Godzilla vs. Kong, No Time to Die, and The Matrix Resurrections. I am going to go with the former two. Even though neither 2014’s Godzilla nor 2018’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters were nominated for Best Visual Effects, Kong: Skull Island was and the Academy’s apparent affinity for the gigantic ape (they gave Peter Jackson’s King Kong a win here) I think will aid it in getting a nod here. Yes, a Daniel Craig-Bond film has never received a Visual Effects nod, but in terms of visuals this film is more *ahem* explosive than previous Bond ventures and I think the wide acclaim the film has could benefit it here. I don’t think the reactions to The Matrix Resurrections were generally positive and the Academy likes to nominate films that are generally well-liked in this category (ignore last year’s slate due to a dearth of films that are usually seen here).

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune – CCA, BAFTA, VES (6x)

    Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES (3x)

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – CCA, VES (4x)

    Godzilla vs. Kong – VES (3x)

    No Time to Die – CCA, VES (1x), BAFTA

    Could Jump In: The Matrix Resurrections – CCA, VES (3x), BAFTA, Free Guy – BAFTA, Eternals – VES (1x)

    Dune, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, and West Side Story have all received nods from all four major precursors. I’m going to play it safe and keep them all in and with that there’s only one slot left. In the last five years, an average of three of the nominees in this category were Best Picture nominees and that’s why I am going to put CCA nominee Belfast here, though something like The Tragedy of Macbeth (which has the kind of production design that has historically been nodded to here), Cyrano, or The Power of the Dog.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Dune – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    Nightmare Alley – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    The French Dispatch – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    West Side Story – CCA, ADG, SDSA, BAFTA

    Belfast – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth – ADG, SDSA, Cyrano – SDSA, BAFTA, The Power of the Dog – SDSA

    Four films hit all four precursors and all four fit the mold of a nominee in this category. So the question is who will fill in that last slot?

    I think that last slot is between four films, The Suicide Squad, Cyrano, and West Side Story, and Coming 2 America. West Side Story doesn’t have the flashiest material in this category but it is, by far, the biggest Best Picture contender of the four. The Suicide Squad did well at the guild nominations picking up 3 nods, but the backlash to the 2016 Suicide Squad’s win in this category or their desire to award something else this time around could hurt it. Coming 2 America is a pretty strong contender but it was released in March and any buzz it had then has largely dissipated. Cyrano getting in here would be like its period piece relatives Emma. and Victoria & Abdul which both got in without receiving MUAH nods. I am going to go with The Suicide Squad since they have shown they like the kind of makeup and hairstyling seen in these kind of films, though this slot is truly a toss-up between these four films.

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

    Dune – CCA, MUAH (2x), BAFTA

    House of Gucci – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

    Cruella – CCA, MUAH (2x), BAFTA

    The Suicide Squad – MUAH (3x)

    Could Jump In: Cyrano – BAFTA, West Side Story – MUAH, Coming 2 America – MUAH (3x)

  • BAFTA Nominations Released: ‘Dune’ Leads With 11, Best Actress Becomes Even More Wide-Open

    BAFTA Nominations Released: ‘Dune’ Leads With 11, Best Actress Becomes Even More Wide-Open

    The BAFTA nominations were released this morning and provided the final piece of the puzzle for my Oscar nomination predictions, though what that puzzle ends up depicting isn’t clear to me. Dune performed well and was the nominations leader with 11 nods (though director Denis Villeneuve wasn’t one of them).

    In the acting categories, two people were picked by the whole academy while the other four nominees were selected by a jury. The eventual nominees in these categories were, with this knowledge, relatively unsurprising, with the exception of Best Actress. Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, and Jessica Chastain were all snubbed and Lady Gaga was the only actress in my personal top 5 Best Actress predictions that made it in. She was likely the top pick in the academy vote, but who was second place? My guess is Licorice Pizza’s Alana Haim and if that is the case, her chances of receiving a nomination have dramatically increased.

    2022 BAFTA Film Award nominees are below:

    Best Film

    “Belfast”
    “Don’t Look Up”
    “Dune”
    “Licorice Pizza”
    “The Power of the Dog”

    Outstanding British Film

    “After Love”
    “Ali & Ava”
    “Belfast”
    “Boiling Point”
    “Cyrano”
    “Everybody’s Talking About Jamie”
    “House of Gucci”
    “Last Night in Soho”
    “No Time to Die”
    “Passing”

    Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

    “After Love” – Aleem Khan (Writer/Director)
    “Boiling Point” – James Cummings (Writer), Hester Ruoff (Producer) [also written by Philip Barantini and Produced by Bart Ruspoli]
    “The Harder They Fall” – Jeymes Samuel (Writer/director) [also written by Boaz Yakin]
    “Keyboard Fantasies” – Posy Dixon (Writer/Director), Liv Proctor (Producer)
    “Passing” – Rebecca Hall (Writer/Director)

    Film Not in the English Language

    “Drive My Car” – Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Teruhisa Yamamoto
    “The Hand of God” – Paolo Sorrentino, Lorenzo Mieli
    “Parallel Mothers” – Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar
    “Petite Maman” – Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur
    “The Worst Person in the World” – Joachim Trier, Thomas Robsahm

    Documentary

    “Becoming Cousteau” – Liz Garbus, Dan Cogan
    “Cow” – Andrea Arnold, Kat Mansoor
    “Flee” – Jonas Poher Rasmussen. Monica Hellström
    “The Rescue” – Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, John Battsek, P. J. Van Sandwijk
    “Summer of Soul (or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, David Dinerstein, Robert Fyvolent, Joseph Patel

    Animated Film

    “Encanto” – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino, Clarke Spencer
    “Flee” – Jonas Poher Rasmussen. Monica Hellström
    “Luca” – Enrico Casarosa, Andrea Warren
    “The Mitchells Vs the Machines” – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller

    Director

    “After Love” – Aleem Khan
    “Drive My Car” – Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
    “Happening” – Audrey Diwan
    “Licorice Pizza” – Paul Thomas Anderson
    “The Power of the Dog” – Jane Campion
    “Titane” – Julia Ducournau

    Original Screenplay

    “Being the Ricardos” – Aaron Sorkin
    “Belfast” – Kenneth Branagh
    “Don’t Look Up” – Adam Mckay
    “King Richard” – Zach Baylin
    “Licorice Pizza” – Paul Thomas Anderson

    Adapted Screenplay

    “Coda” – Siân Heder
    “Drive My Car” – Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
    “Dune” – Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve
    “The Lost Daughter” – Maggie Gyllenhaal
    “The Power of the Dog” – Jane Campion

    Leading Actress

    Lady Gaga – “House of Gucci”
    Alana Haim – “Licorice Pizza”
    Emilia Jones – “Coda”
    Renate Reinsve – “The Worst Person in the World”
    Joanna Scanlan – “After Love”
    Tessa Thompson – “Passing”

    Leading Actor

    Adeel Akhtar – “Ali & Ava”
    Mahershala Ali – “Swan Song”
    Benedict Cumberbatch – “The Power of the Dog”
    Leonardo DiCaprio – “Don’t Look Up”
    Stephen Graham – “Boiling Point”
    Will Smith – “King Richard”

    Supporting Actress

    Caitríona Balfe – “Belfast”
    Jessie Buckley – “The Lost Daughter”
    Ariana Debose – “West Side Story”
    Ann Dowd – “Mass”
    Aunjanue Ellis – “King Richard”
    Ruth Negga – “Passing”

    Supporting Actor

    Mike Faist – “West Side Story”
    Ciarán Hinds – “Belfast”
    Troy Kotsur – “Coda”
    Woody Norman – “C’mon C’mon”
    Jesse Plemons – “The Power of the Dog”
    Kodi Smit-McPhee – “The Power of the Dog”

    Original Score

    “Being the Ricardos” – Daniel Pemberton
    “Don’t Look Up” – Nicholas Britell
    “Dune” – Hans Zimmer
    “The French Dispatch” – Alexandre Desplat
    “The Power of the Dog” – Jonny Greenwood

    Casting

    “Boiling Point” – Carolyn Mcleod
    “Dune” – Francine Maisler
    “The Hand of God” – Massimo Appolloni, Annamaria Sambucco
    “King Richard” – Rich Delia, Avy Kaufman
    “West Side Story” – Cindy Tolan

    Cinematography

    “Dune” – Greig Fraser
    “Nightmare Alley” – Dan Laustsen
    “No Time to Die” – Linus Sandgren
    “The Power of the Dog” – Ari Wegner
    “The Tragedy of Macbeth” – Bruno Delbonnel

    Editing

    “Belfast” – Úna Ní Dhonghaíle
    “Dune” – Joe Walker
    “Licorice Pizza” – Andy Jurgensen
    “No Time to Die” – Tom Cross, Elliot Graham
    “Summer of Soul (or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” – Joshua L. Pearson

    Production Design

    “Cyrano” – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
    “Dune” – Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
    “The French Dispatch” – Adam Stockhausen, Rena Deangelo
    “Nightmare Alley” – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
    “West Side Story” – Adam Stockhausen, Rena Deangelo

    Costume Design

    “Cruella” – Jenny Beavan
    “Cyrano” – Massimo Cantini Parrini
    “Dune” – Robert Morgan, Jacqueline West
    “The French Dispatch” – Milena Canonero
    “Nightmare Alley” – Luis Sequeira

    Make Up & Hair

    “Cruella” – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne
    “Cyrano” – Alessandro Bertolazzi, Siân Miller
    “Dune” – Love Larson, Donald Mowat
    “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh
    “House of Gucci” – Frederic Aspiras, Jane Carboni, Giuliano Mariana, Sarah Nicole Tanno

    Sound

    “Dune” – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Doug Hemphill, Theo Green, Ron Bartlett
    “Last Night in Soho” – Colin Nicolson, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin, Dan Morgan
    “No Time to Die” – James Harrison, Simon Hayes, Paul Massey, Oliver Tarney, Mark Taylor
    “A Quiet Place Part II” – Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky, Brandon Proctor, Ethan Van Der Ryn
    “West Side Story” – Brian Chumney, Tod Maitland, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom

    Special Visual Effects

    “Dune” – Brian Connor, Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Gerd Nefzer
    “Free Guy” – Swen Gillberg, Brian Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, Daniel Sudick
    “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” – Aharon Bourland, Sheena Duggal, Pier Lefebvre, Alessandro Ongaro
    “The Matrix Resurrections” – Tom Debenham, Hew J Evans, Dan Glass, J. D. Schwaim
    “No Time to Die” – Mark Bokowski, Chris Corbould, Joel Green, Charlie Noble

    British Short Animation

    “Affairs of the Art” – Joanna Quinn, Les Mills
    “Do Not Feed the Pigeons” – Jordi Morera
    “Night of the Living Dread” – Ida Melum, Danielle Goff, Laura Jayne Tunbridge, Hannah Kelso

    British Short Film

    “The Black Cop” – Cherish Oteka
    “Femme” – Sam H. Freeman, Ng Choon Ping, Sam Ritzenberg, Hayley Williams
    “The Palace” – Jo Prichard
    “Stuffed” – Theo Rhys, Joss Holden-rea
    “Three Meetings of the Extraordinary Committee” – Michael Woodward, Max Barron, Daniel Wheldon

    EE Rising Star Award (Voted for by the Public)

    Ariana Debose
    Harris Dickinson
    Lashana Lynch
    Millicent Simmonds
    Kodi Smit-McPhee

    Source: Variety

  • PGA Nominees Released: ‘Being the Ricardos’ and ‘Tick, Tick…BOOM!’ Round Out the Last Two Slots

    PGA Nominees Released: ‘Being the Ricardos’ and ‘Tick, Tick…BOOM!’ Round Out the Last Two Slots

    In the last five years, an average of eight films nominated at PGA ended up getting nominated for Best Picture as well. With this year’s expansion to 10 slots for BP nominees, I think either eight or nine of the PGA 10 will et into Picture at the Oscars.

    The top eight (The Power of the Dog, Belfast, West Side Story, Dune, Licorice Pizza, Don’t Look Up, CODA, and King Richard) all made it into the PGA lineup and will most likely replicate that success at the Oscars. The question is who will the other two picks be? Well that’s a question for another post.

    Here are the PGA nominees:

    Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

    • “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
      Producer: Todd Black, p.g.a.
    • “Belfast” (Focus Features)
      Producers: Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, Tamar Thomas
    • “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
      Producers: Philippe Rousselet, p.g.a., Fabrice Gianfermi, p.g.a., Patrick Wachsberger, p.g.a.
    • “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
      Producers: Adam McKay, p.g.a., Kevin Messick, p.g.a.
    • “Dune” (Warner Bros)
      Producers: Mary Parent, p.g.a., Cale Boyter, p.g.a., Denis Villeneuve, p.g.a.
    • “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
      Producers: Tim White, p.g.a., Trevor White, p.g.a., Will Smith, p.g.a.
    • “Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
      Producers: Sara Murphy, Paul Thomas Anderson, Adam Somner
    • “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
      Producers: Jane Campion, p.g.a., Tanya Seghatchian, p.g.a., Emile Sherman, p.g.a. & Iain Canning, p.g.a., Roger Frappier, p.g.a.
    • “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix)
      Producers: Julie Oh, p.g.a., Lin-Manuel Miranda, p.g.a.
    • “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
      Producers: Steven Spielberg, p.g.a., Kristie Macosko Krieger, p.g.a.

    Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

    • “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures)
      Producers: Yvett Merino, p.g.a., Clark Spencer, p.g.a.
    • “Luca” (Pixar)
      Producers: Andrea Warren, p.g.a.
    • “The Mitchells vs. The Machines” (Netflix)
      Producers: Phil Lord, p.g.a. & Christopher Miller, p.g.a., Kurt Albrecht, p.g.a.
    • “Raya and the Last Dragon” (Walt Disney Pictures)
      Producers: Osnat Shurer, p.g.a., Peter Del Vecho, p.g.a.
    • “Sing 2” (Illumination/Universal Pictures)
      Producers: Chris Meledandri, p.g.a., Janet Healy, p.g.a.

    Norman Felton Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television – Drama

    • “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Season 4)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • “The Morning Show” (Apple TV Plus) – Season 2
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • “Squid Game” (Netflix) – Season 1
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • “Succession” (HBO) – Season 3
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network) – Season 4
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*

    Danny Thomas Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television – Comedy

    • “Cobra Kai” (Netflix) – Seasons 3 and 4
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO) – Season 11
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • “Hacks” (HBO Max) – Season 1
      Producers: Jen Statsky, Paul W. Downs, Lucia Aniello, Michael Schur, David Miner, Morgan Sackett, Joanna Calo, Andrew Law, David Hyman, Joe Mande, Jessica Chaffin
    • “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) – Season 1
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus) – Season 2
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*

    David L. Wolper Award for Outstanding Producer of Limited or Anthology Series Television

    • “Dopesick” (Hulu)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • ​​”The Underground Railroad” (Amazon Prime Video)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • “WandaVision” (Disney Plus)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • “The White Lotus” (HBO)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*

    Award for Outstanding Producer of Televised or Streamed Motion Pictures

    • 8-Bit Christmas
      Producers: Tim White, p.g.a. & Trevor White, p.g.a., Allan Mandelbaum, p.g.a.
    • Come From Away
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Oslo
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Single All The Way
      Producer: Joel S. Rice, p.g.a.
    • Tom Petty, Somewhere You Feel Free: The Making of Wildflowers
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*

    Award for Outstanding Producer of Non-Fiction Television

    • 60 Minutes (Season 54)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Allen v. Farrow (Season 1)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • The Beatles: Get Back (Season 1)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Queer Eye (Season 6)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy (Season 1)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*

    Award for Outstanding Producer of Live Entertainment, Variety, Sketch, Standup & Talk Television

    • The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Season 27)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Dave Chappelle: The Closer
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (Season 8)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (Season 7)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Saturday Night Live (Season 47)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*

    Award for Outstanding Producer of Game & Competition Television

    • America’s Got Talent (Season 16)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Nailed It! (Seasons 5 & 6)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • RuPaul’s Drag Race (Season 13)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • Top Chef (Season 18)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*
    • The Voice (Season 20)
      *Eligibility Determination Pending*

    Source: Yahoo

  • DGA Nominees Released: PTA, Branagh, Campion, Spielberg, and Villeneuve All Make It In

    DGA Nominees Released: PTA, Branagh, Campion, Spielberg, and Villeneuve All Make It In

    The last time the eventual Best Picture winner missed DGA was in 1990 when Driving Miss Daisy’s Bruce Beresford missed directing nods at both the DGA and the Oscars yet his film still ended up winning the top prize. So it seems highly unlikely that any film outside of this group will triumph in the end. Of course, ‘The Power of the Dog’, with ‘Belfast’ following closely behind, are still the two frontrunners.

    With these five getting nominations, someone like Adam McKay’s chances of getting nominated for Best Director are now essentially non-existent. Usually, four out of the five DGA nominees translate to Oscar nominations and that usually happens when they see a DGA-nominated film as more of a screenwriting achievement than a directorial achievement. I think Branagh is the best bet to fall, as a result of this trend, and someone like Ryusuke Hamaguchi or Joel Coen could take his or PTA’s place.

    Feature

    Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”

    Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”

    Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”

    Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”

    Denis Villeneuve, “Dune”

    First-Time Feature

    Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Lost Daughter”

    Rebecca Hall, “Passing”

    Tatiana Huezo, “Prayers for the Stolen”

    Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Tick, Tick … Boom!”

    Michael Sarnoski, “Pig”

    Emma Seligman, “Shiva Baby”

    Documentary

    “Ascension,” Jessica Kingdon

    “Attica,” Stanley Nelson

    “Exterminate All the Brutes,” Raoul Peck

    “Summer of Soul,” Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson

    “The Rescue,” Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin

    Source: New York Times

  • 2022 Oscars: Late January Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late January Predictions

    The time is almost upon us. These are my penultimate Oscar nomination predictions and I will be releasing one more set before nominations are announced on February 8th.

    Like I said in last month’s predictions, the top 8 films in the Best Picture race are The Power of the Dog, Belfast, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Dune, CODA, and King Richard and they are close to guarantees for Best Picture nominations. The question is what two films will fill the remaining spots? Once PGA releases their picks this question will hopefully become more clear but for now I think the two are going to come from this group of seven films: tick, tick…BOOM!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, House of Gucci, and Being the Ricardos.

    The Lost Daughter won big at the Gothams and seemed to do well in the BAFTA longlists. It’s lead is also the beloved Olivia Colman who is definitely win-competitive in Best Actress. It’s also a top three contender in Best Adapted Screenplay and Maggie Gylenhaal was nominated in Best Director at the Golden Globes. It’s also the only film nominated at the Indie Spirits that has a chance of getting a BP nom. However, it also has a 6.8 IMDb score and hasn’t gotten a Picture nom at CCA, GG, AFI, or NBR.

    House of Gucci received 13 appearances on the BAFTA longlists and got a SAG Ensemble nod to boot. However, usually only 3 to 4 of the SAG Ensemble nominees end up with Best Picture nominations and the other four nominees (Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, and King Richard) are basically locked for nods.

    Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at the Globes which catapults her to the top 2 in that category. Javier Bardem was also nominated at SAG, showing there is some industry support for Being the Ricardos. However, this film seems like it will just be an acting contender as it was tepidly received by both critics and audiences (6.6 IMDb score and 60 Metascore).

    Drive My Car is really a wildcard here. It wasn’t given Picture nods at CCA, SAG, AFI, or NBR, yet it is probably the most critically-acclaimed film of the year. It won Best Film at NYFCC, LAFCC, and NSFC, a feat only accomplished by five films: The Social Network, The Hurt Locker, L.A. Confidential, Schindler’s List, and Goodfellas. All of these films received Best Picture nominations and were top 2 contenders in their respective seasons. So this is a really special stat, yet I still think Drive My Car won’t get nominated unless it hits PGA. It’s a three hour long Japanese psychological drama so it’s really not the most widely-accessible of films so I need to see some proof of industry support (either at PGA or DGA) before I predict it for Picture. But of these seven films, it’s also probably the one with the most passion behind it so maybe I actually am going to predict it, for now.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG (Drama – win), CCA

    Belfast (Focus) – GG, CCA, SAG

    West Side Story (20th Century) – GG (Comedy/Musical – win), CCA

    Licorice Pizza (MGM) – GG, CCA

    Dune (Warner Bros.) – GG, CCA

    CODA (Apple+) – GG, CCA, SAG

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG

    King Richard (Warner Bros.) – GG, CCA, SAG

    tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA

    Drive My Car (Janus) – GG (Foreign – win)

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+), Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – CCA, House of Gucci (MGM) – SAG, The Lost Daughter (Netflix), Being the Ricardos (Amazon), Spider-Man: No Way Home (Disney/Marvel), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Spencer (NEON), Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics) – GG, Cyrano (MGM) – GG

    Campion, Spielberg, and Villeneuve seem locked to me, while PTA and Branagh could drop for Hamaguchi or McKay. Other than those seven, I don’t see any filmmakers getting nods here. If Licorice Pizza ends up underperforming due to controversy or other factors, PTA might miss. Branagh fits the mold of other writer-directors (Aaron Sorkin, Peter Farrelly, and Martin McDonagh) who were directors of top 2 Best Picture contenders yet missed Best Director nominations as the Academy sees their films as primarily achievements of writing as opposed to directing.

    Hamaguchi directed the most critically-acclaimed film of the year and if Drive My Car gets a PGA nomination, he is 99.9% getting nominated here, though I’m not sure if that will happen. McKay was given nominations for both The Big Short and Vice and while those two films were received more positively by critics than Don’t Look Up there is a good chance he gets his third Best Director nomination.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog – GG (win), CCA

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story – GG, CCA

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune – GG, CCA

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza – CCA

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast – GG, CCA

    Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley – CCA, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter – GG

    I think the foursome of Cumberbatch, Smith, Washington, and Garfield are very much locked to receive a nod in February. The question is who will fill that last spot? I think it’s between DiCaprio, Bardem, and Dinklage. All three appeared on the BAFTA longlist and received Golden Globe nominations. Dinklage is the only one of the three that received a nomination at Critics Choice and Bardem is the only one who received a SAG nod. However, there is also a very strong correlation between Best Actor and Best Picture. In the last five years, an average of 3.8 of the five Best Actor nominees for in Best Picture nominees. Don’t Look Up is easily a stronger Best Picture contender than Being the Ricardos and Cyrano and DiCaprio is one of the biggest stars in the world so I am going to go with him unless BAFTA somehow changes my mind.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

    Will Smith – King Richard – GG (win), CCA, SAG

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth – GG, CCA, SAG

    Andrew Garfield – Tick, tick…BOOM! – GG (win), CCA, SAG

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up – GG

    Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos – GG, SAG, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano – GG, CCA, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Nicolas Cage – Pig – CCA

    Kristen Stewart’s snub at SAG was easily the most surprising omission in their nomination slate. This category is now very open and I can see Kidman, Stewart, or Colman eventually winning. Those three and Gaga are pretty firmly set in for nominations and that last slot could go to Cruz, Chastain, Zegler, or Hudson (who has had a resurgence since her SAG nod). BAFTA will probably make that more clear and until then I’ll have Chastain in as she’s hit every major precursor so far.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG (win), SAG, CCA

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer – GG, CCA

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter – GG, SAG, CCA

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci – GG, SAG, CCA

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – GG, SAG, CCA

    Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect – SAG, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story – GG (win), CCA, Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, Troy Kotsur, and Ciaran Hinds all seem locked for a nomination in my eyes. The last two slots are between Cooper, Dornan, Plemons, and Leto. While House of Gucci will be a bigger Oscar player than last year’s The Little Things, I still think Leto will miss this year after receiving two precursor nods. In the last six Oscar seasons except for one, Jesse Plemons has been in at least one Best Picture-nominated film (Judas and the Black Messiah, The Irishman, Vice, The Post, Bridge of Spies). The actor has consistently done good work in Oscar-caliber films and he might get carried on a river of goodwill for The Power of the Dog and earn his first nomination.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG (win), CCA, SAG

    Troy Kotsur – CODA – GG, CCA, SAG

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast – GG, CCA

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza – SAG

    Jamie Dornan – Belfast – GG, CCA

    Could Jump In: Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, Jared Leto – House of Gucci – CCA, SAG, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar – GG, SAG, JK Simmons – CCA

    Ariana DeBose, Caitrona Balfe, and Kirsten Dunst are locked here since they’ve hit all the major precursors. It’s hard for me to see anyone else usurping either Ellis’ or Negga’s spots and to me, only Moreno or Blanchett really have a realistic chance of doing so.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG (win), CCA, SAG

    Caitrona Balfe – Belfast – GG, CCA, SAG

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard – GG, CCA

    Ruth Negga – Passing – GG, SAG

    Could Jump In: Rita Moreno – West Side Story – CCA, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley – SAG, Ann Dowd – Mass – CCA, Marlee Matlin – CODA

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA

    Belfast – GG (win), CCA

    Don’t Look Up – GG, CCA

    King Richard – CCA

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, Red Rocket

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, USC

    The Lost Daughter – CCA, USC

    CODA – CCA

    Drive My Car

    West Side Story – CCA

    Could Jump In: Dune – CCA, USC, Nightmare Alley, Passing – USC, The Last Duel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie)

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines – CCA, Annie

    Encanto – GG (win), CCA, Annie

    Luca – GG, CCA, Annie

    Raya and the Last Dragon – GG, CCA, Annie

    Could Jump In: Belle – Annie (Indie), Sing 2 – Annie, The Summit of the Gods – Annie (Indie)

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley – CCA, SDSA

    Dune – CCA, SDSA

    West Side Story – CCA, SDSA

    The Tragedy of Macbeth – SDSA

    Belfast – CCA

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch – CCA, SDSA, Being the Ricardos – SDSA, Cyrano – SDSA, The Last Duel, The Power of the Dog – SDSA

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune – CCA

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    The Tragedy of Macbeth – CCA

    West Side Story – CCA

    Belfast – CCA

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley – CCA, The French Dispatch, Spencer, The Green Knight, C’mon C’mon

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune – CCA

    Cruella – CCA

    West Side Story – CCA

    Nightmare Alley – CCA

    Spencer

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, House of Gucci – CCA, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune – CCA

    Belfast – CCA

    West Side Story – CCA

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: King Richard, Licorice Pizza – CCA, No Time to Die, tick, tick…BOOM!, The French Dispatch

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    Dune – CCA

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA

    House of Gucci – CCA

    Cruella – CCA

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Coming 2 America, The Suicide Squad, Nightmare Alley – CCA, Cyrano, No Time to Die

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    No Time to Die

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: tick, tick…Boom!, The Power of the Dog, Last Night in Soho, A Quiet Place Part II, The Matrix Resurrections

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune – CCA, VES

    Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES

    Godzilla vs. Kong – VES

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – CCA, VES

    The Matrix Resurrections – CCA, VES

    Could Jump In: Eternals – VES, Free Guy, No Time to Die – VES, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Black Widow – VES

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune – CCA, GG (win), SCL

    The Power of the Dog – CCA, GG, SCL

    The French Dispatch – GG, SCL

    Spencer – CCA, SCL

    Don’t Look Up – CCA, SCL

    Could Jump In: Parallel Mothers – GG, SCL, Encanto – GG, SCL, No Time to Die, The Green Knight – SCL, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die – GG, CCA

    King Richard – GG, CCA

    Encanto – GG, CCA

    Respect – GG

    Don’t Look Up – CCA

    Could Jump In: Belfast – GG, CODA, The Harder They Fall – CCA, Annette, Sing 2

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Drive My Car – GG (win), CCA

    A Hero – GG, CCA

    The Hand of God – GG, CCA

    Flee – CCA

    The Worst Person in the World – CCA

    Could Jump In: Prayers for the Stolen, Compartment No. 6 – GG, I’m Your Man, Lamb, The Good Boss

    Keep in mind that the Academy does seem to have an aversion to documentaries composed mostly of archival footage and that’s why I’m hesitant to predict films like Summer of Soul and Attica.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Flee

    The Rescue

    Procession

    Ascension

    Faya Dayi

    Could Jump In: Summer of Soul, Julia, The First Wave, Attica, The Velvet Underground

  • SAG Nominations: Kristen Stewart Misses and ‘House of Gucci’ Overperforms

    SAG Nominations: Kristen Stewart Misses and ‘House of Gucci’ Overperforms

    The SAG nods were released a few hours ago and with them in our possession only the BAFTA noms are left in terms of major acting precursors. As usual, there were some surprises. Biggest of all being Kristen Stewart, who was marked as the frontrunner for a Best Actress nomination by many (including me) missed a SAG nomination. In her place was Jennifer Hudson who many thought, for all intents and purpose, was out of the race.

    House of Gucci overperformed and other than its expected inclusion for Lady Gaga in Best Actress it was also nominated for Best Cast Ensemble and Best Supporting Actor for Jared Leto (nominated by SAG for the second time in the row as he was picked last year for The Little Things). There were other surprises in Supporting Actor as Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) and Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) were nominated, Cooper receiving his first major precursor nod. Also, both Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds of Belfast missed as well.

    Anyways, here are the SAG nominations:

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

    Murray Bartlett (“The White Lotus”)  

    Oscar Isaac (“Scenes From a Marriage”)  

    Michael Keaton (“Dopesick”) 

    Ewan McGregor (“Halston”)  

    Evan Peters (“Mare of Easttown”) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

    Jennifer Coolidge (“The White Lotus”)  

    Cynthia Erivo (“Genius: Aretha”)  

    Margaret Qualley (“Maid”)  

    Jean Smart (“Mare of Easttown”)  

    Kate Winslet (“Mare of Easttown”)  

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

    Michael Douglas (“The Kominsky Method”)  

    Brett Goldstein (“Ted Lasso”) 

    Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”)  

    Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”)  

    Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”)  

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

    Elle Fanning (“The Great”)

    Sandra Oh (“The Chair”)

    Jean Smart (“Hacks”

    Juno Temple (“Ted Lasso”)

    Hannah Waddingham (“Ted Lasso”)

    Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

    “The Great” (Hulu)  

    “Hacks” (HBO Max)  

    “The Kominsky Method” (Netflix)

    “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)  

    “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

    Brian Cox (“Succession”) 

    Billy Crudup (“The Morning Show”) 

    Kieran Culkin (“Succession”)  

    Lee Jung-Jae (“Squid Game”)  

    Jeremy Strong (“Succession”)  

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

    Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”) 

    Jung Ho-yeon (“Squid Game”)

    Elizabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”)  

    Sarah Snook (“Succession”) 

    Reese Witherspoon (“The Morning Show”) 

    Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

    “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu) 

    “The Morning Show” (Apple TV Plus) 

    “Squid Game” (Netflix) 

    “Succession” (HBO) 

    “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Caitríona Balfe (“Belfast”)  

    Cate Blanchett (“Nightmare Alley”)  

    Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”)

    Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”)  

    Ruth Negga (“Passing) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    Ben Affleck (“The Tender Bar”)  

    Bradley Cooper (“Licorice Pizza”)  

    Troy Kotsur (“CODA”)  

    Jared Leto (“House of Gucci”)  

    Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”)  

    Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”)  

    Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”) 

    Jennifer Hudson (“Respect”)  

    Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”)  

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”)  

    Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”) 

    Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick … Boom!”) 

    Will Smith (“King Richard”)  

    Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    “Belfast” (Focus Features)  

    “CODA” (Apple Original Films) 

    “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)  

    “House of Gucci” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)  

    “King Richard” (Warner Bros)  

    Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

    “Black Widow”

    “Dune”

    “The Matrix Resurrections”

    “No Time to Die”

    “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

    Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series

    “Cobra Kai”

    “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier”

    “Loki”

    “Mare of Easttown”

    “Squid Game”

  • BAFTA Longlists Announced: ‘West Side Story’ and ‘Don’t Look Up’ Lead

    BAFTA Longlists Announced: ‘West Side Story’ and ‘Don’t Look Up’ Lead

    The BAFTAs announced their longlists today with West Side Story and Don’t Look Up leading with 15 appearances each. The Power of the Dog and Belfast were close seconds with 14 nods each. I’ll dive into the ramifications of these longlists in my January predictions so here are the BAFTA picks.

    Best Film

    15 films go through to the Round Two of voting, and five will be nominated. This is the only category voted for by all film voting members in all voting rounds. 217 films were submitted for consideration.

    Being The Ricardos
    Belfast
    CODA
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    House of Gucci
    King Richard
    Licorice Pizza
    No Time To Die
    The French Dispatch
    The Lost Daughter
    The Power of the Dog
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    tick tick…BOOM!
    West Side Story

    Outstanding British Film

    20 films will go through to round two of voting. The top five films from the opt-in chapter vote in round one automatically receive a nomination. The next ranking 15 films will be considered by a jury, who will vote for five nominations. 10 films will be nominated in this category. In round three, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 64 films were submitted for consideration, all of which passed the BFI Diversity Standards.

    After Love
    Ali & Ava
    Belfast
    Benediction
    Boiling Point
    The Colour Room
    Cruella
    Cyrano
    The Duke
    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
    House of Gucci
    The King’s Man
    Last Night in Soho
    Mothering Sunday
    Munich- The Edge of War
    No Time To Die
    Operation Mincemeat
    Passing
    Spencer

    Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer

    10 films have been longlisted, and five will be nominated. The longlist, nominees and winner in this category are voted on by a jury. 37 films were submitted for consideration.

    After Love
    Boiling Point
    Censor
    Dying to Divorce
    The Harder They Fall
    Hostile
    Keyboard Fantasies
    Passing
    The Power
    Sweetheart

    Film Not in English Language

    15 films will progress to round 2 of voting, and five will be nominated. This category is voted for in all three rounds by an opt-in chapter. 50 films were submitted for consideration.

    A Hero
    Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn
    Compartment No. 6
    Drive My Car
    Flee
    The Hand of God
    I’m Your Man
    Lamb
    The Most Beautiful Boy in the World
    Parallel Mothers
    Paris, 13th District
    Petite Maman
    Riders of Justice
    Titane
    The Worst Person in the World

    Documentary

    15 films will progress to round 2 of voting. The top two films from the opt-in chapter vote in round 1 automatically receive a nomination. The next ranking 13 films will be considered by a jury, who will vote for three nominations.  Five films will be nominated in this category. In round 3, the documentary opt-in chapter will select the winner in this category.

    14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible
    Becoming Cousteau
    Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry
    Cow
    Flee
    JFK Revisited: Through The Looking Glass
    Lady Boss: The Jackie Collins Story
    The Lost Leonardo
    The Most Beautiful Boy in the World
    The Real Charlie Chaplin
    The Rescue
    The Sparks Brothers
    Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
    Tina
    The Velvet Underground

    Animated Film

    Seven films will progress to round 2 of voting, and four will be nominated. This category is voted for in all three rounds by an opt-in chapter. 14 films were submitted for consideration.

    Encanto
    Flee
    Luca
    The Mitchells vs the Machines
    Raya and the Last Dragon
    Ron’s Gone Wrong
    Sing 2

    Director

    20 films will progress to round 2 of voting, and six will be nominated. Round 1 is a chapter vote, round 2 is voted on by a jury (nominations) and round 3 is voted on by the general membership (winner). To determine this longlist, in round 1, the directing chapter voted; the top seven female and top seven male directed films were automatically longlisted. The remaining 3 female and 3 male directors were voted for by a longlisting jury, who have considered the next 10 ranking female and male directed films. A nominating jury will vote for the six nominations. In round 3, the general voting membership will select the winner. 184 films were submitted for consideration.

    After Love
    Belfast
    CODA
    Don’t Look Up
    Drive My Car
    Dune
    First Cow
    The Hand of God
    Happening
    King Richard
    Licorice Pizza
    The Lost Daughter
    Passing
    Petite Maman
    The Power of the Dog
    The Souvenir Part II
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Titane
    West Side Story
    Zola

    Original Screenplay

    15 films will progress to round 2, and five will be nominated. Round 1 is a chapter vote, round 2 is a chapter vote (nominations) and in round 3, the general voting membership will select the winner. 78 films were submitted for consideration.

    After Love
    Being The Ricardos
    Belfast
    The Card Counter
    C’mon C’mon
    Don’t Look Up
    The Duke
    The French Dispatch
    The Hand of God
    King Richard
    Last Night in Soho
    Licorice Pizza
    Parallel Mothers
    Petite Maman
    The Worst Person in the World

    Adapted Screenplay

    15 films will progress to round 2, and five will be nominated. Round 1 is a chapter vote, round 2 is a chapter vote (nominations) and in round 3, the general voting membership will select the winner. 62 films were submitted for consideration.

    CODA
    Cyrano
    Drive My Car
    Dune
    The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    The Green Knight
    House of Gucci
    The Last Duel
    The Lost Daughter
    No Time To Die
    Passing
    The Power of the Dog
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    tick tick…BOOM!
    West Side Story

    Leading Actress

    15 performances will progress to round 2 of voting, and six will be nominated. To determine this longlist, in round 1 the acting chapter voted; the top 12 were automatically longlisted. The remaining three places have been voted on by the longlisting jury, who have considered the next 10 placed performances from the chapter vote. Round 2 is voted on by a jury who will vote for the six nominations. In round 3, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 82 performances were submitted for consideration.

    Jessica Chastain The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Olivia Colman The Lost Daughter
    Lady Gaga House of Gucci
    Alana Haim Licorice Pizza
    Jennifer Hudson Respect
    Emilia Jones CODA
    Nicole Kidman Being The Ricardos
    Jennifer Lawrence Don’t Look Up
    Frances McDormand The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Renate Reinsve The Worst Person in the World
    Claire Rushbrook Ali & Ava
    Joanna Scanlan After Love
    Kristen Stewart Spencer
    Tessa Thompson Passing
    Rachel Zegler West Side Story

    Leading Actor

    15 performances will progress to Round 2 of voting, and six will be nominated. To determine this longlist, in round 1 the acting chapter voted; the top 12 were automatically longlisted. The remaining three places have been voted on by the longlisting jury, who have considered the next 10 placed performances from the chapter vote. Round 2 is voted on by a jury who will vote for the six nominations. In Round 3, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 102 performances were submitted for consideration.

    Riz Ahmed Encounter
    Adeel Akhtar Ali & Ava
    Mahershala Ali Swan Song
    Javier Bardem Being The Ricardos
    Daniel Craig No Time To Die
    Benedict Cumberbatch The Power of the Dog
    Leonardo DiCaprio Don’t Look Up
    Peter Dinklage Cyrano
    Adam Driver House of Gucci
    Andrew Garfield tick tick…BOOM!
    Stephen Graham Boiling Point
    Cooper Hoffman Licorice Pizza
    Joaquin Phoenix C’mon C’mon
    Will Smith King Richard
    Denzel Washington The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Supporting Actress

    15 performances will progress to Round Two of voting, and six will be nominated. To determine this longlist, in Round One the acting chapter voted; the top 12 were automatically longlisted. The remaining three places have been voted on by the Longlisting jury, who have considered the next 10 placed performances from the chapter vote. Round Two is voted on by a jury who will vote for the six nominations. In Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 202 performances were submitted for consideration.

    Caitriona Balfe Belfast
    Cate Blanchett Don’t Look Up
    Jessie Buckley The Lost Daughter
    Ana de Armas No Time To Die
    Ariana DeBose West Side Story
    Ann Dowd Mass
    Judi Dench Belfast
    Kirsten Dunst The Power of the Dog
    Aunjanue Ellis King Richard
    Kathryn Hunter The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Rita Moreno West Side Story
    Ruth Negga Passing
    Vinette Robinson Boiling Point
    Meryl Streep Don’t Look Up
    Anya Taylor-Joy Last Night in Soho

    Supporting Actor

    15 performances will progress to Round Two of voting, and six will be nominated. To determine this longlist, in Round One the acting chapter voted; the top 12 were automatically longlisted. The remaining three places have been voted on by the Longlisting jury, who have considered the next 10 placed performances from the chapter vote. Round Two is voted on by a jury who will vote for the six nominations. In Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 283 performances were submitted for consideration.

    David Alvarez West Side Story
    Bradley Cooper Licorice Pizza
    Benicio del Toro The French Dispatch
    Jamie Dornan Belfast
    Ciarán Hinds Belfast
    Mike Faist West Side Story
    Andrew Garfield The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Troy Kotsur CODA
    Jared Leto House of Gucci
    Woody Norman C’mon C’mon
    Al Pacino House of Gucci
    Jesse Plemons The Power of the Dog
    Mark Rylance Don’t Look Up
    J.K. Simmons Being The Ricardos
    Kodi Smit-McPhee The Power of the Dog

    Casting

    15 films will progress to Round Two of voting, and five will be nominated. Round One is a chapter vote, Round Two is voted on by a jury (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 89 films were submitted in this category. Casting Statements, written by the Casting Directors about the casting process, are provided by the entrants and shared with the jury in Round Two and published on BAFTA View.

    After Love
    Belfast
    Boiling Point
    CODA
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    The Hand of God
    House of Gucci
    King Richard
    Licorice Pizza
    The Lost Daughter
    Passing
    The Power of the Dog
    tick tick…BOOM!
    West Side Story

    Cinematography

    15 films will progress to Round Two, and five will be nominated. Round One is a chapter vote, Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 126 films were submitted for consideration.

    Belfast
    C’mon C’mon
    Cyrano
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    The French Dispatch
    House of Gucci
    The Last Duel
    Last Night in Soho
    Licorice Pizza
    Nightmare Alley
    No Time To Die
    The Power of the Dog
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    West Side Story

    Costume Design

    15 films will progress to Round Two, and five will be nominated. Round One is a chapter vote, Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 86 films were submitted for consideration.

    Being The Ricardos
    Being the Ricardos
    Belfast
    Cruella
    Cyrano
    Dune
    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
    The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    The French Dispatch
    House of Gucci
    Last Night in Soho
    Licorice Pizza
    Nightmare Alley
    The Power of the Dog
    Spencer
    West Side Story

    Editing

    15 films will progress to Round Two, and five will be nominated. Round One is a chapter vote, Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 154 films were submitted for consideration.

    Belfast
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    The French Dispatch
    The Hand of God
    House of Gucci
    Last Night in Soho
    Licorice Pizza
    The Lost Daughter
    No Time To Die
    The Power of the Dog
    Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
    tick tick…BOOM!
    Titane
    West Side Story

    MAKE UP & HAIR

    15 films will progress to Round Two, and five will be nominated. Round One is a chapter vote, Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 77 films were submitted for consideration.

    Being the Ricardos
    Coming 2 America
    Cruella
    Cyrano
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
    The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    The French Dispatch
    House of Gucci
    The King’s Man
    The Last Duel
    Last Night in Soho
    No Time To Die
    West Side Story

    ORIGINAL SCORE

    15 films will progress to Round Two, and five will be nominated. Round One is a chapter vote, Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 101 films were submitted for consideration. Music cue sheets are provided by the entrants and published on BAFTA View for the music chapter in Rounds One and Two, and for all voting members in Round Three.

    Being the Ricardos
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
    The French Dispatch
    The Green Knight
    The Harder They Fall
    King Richard
    The Last Duel
    Last Night in Soho
    The Lost Daughter
    Nightmare Alley
    No Time To Die
    The Power of the Dog
    Spencer

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    15 films will progress to Round Two, and five will be nominated. Round One is a chapter vote, Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 99 films were submitted for consideration.

    Being the Ricardos
    Belfast
    Cruella
    Cyrano
    Dune
    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
    The French Dispatch
    House of Gucci
    The Last Duel
    Licorice Pizza
    Nightmare Alley
    No Time To Die
    The Power of the Dog
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    West Side Story

    SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

    15 films will progress to Round Two, and five will be nominated. Round One is a chapter vote, Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 56 films were submitted for consideration. Entrants can submit a supporting Statement and a show-reel of the SVFX work (up to five minutes in duration); this will be published on BAFTA View for the general voting membership in Round Three.

    Black Widow
    Cruella
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    Eternals
    Free Guy
    The French Dispatch
    Ghostbusters: Afterlife
    The King’s Man
    Last Night in Soho
    The Matrix Resurrections
    No Time To Die
    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
    The Suicide Squad
    Venom: Let There Be Carnage

    SOUND

    15 films will progress to Round Two, and five will be nominated. Round One is a chapter vote, Round Two is a chapter vote (nominations) and in Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner. 126 films were submitted for consideration.

    A Quiet Place Part II
    Belfast
    CODA
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    The French Dispatch
    Ghostbusters: Afterlife
    The Harder They Fall
    The Last Duel
    Last Night in Soho
    The Matrix Resurrections
    No Time To Die
    The Power of the Dog
    tick tick…BOOM!
    West Side Story

    BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION

    Six films have been longlisted, and three will be nominated. Rounds One and Two (longlist and nominations) are a jury vote, and an opt in chapter will select the winner in Round Three.

    Affairs of the Art
    Do Not Feed The Pigeons
    A Film About A Pudding
    Homebird
    Night of the Living Dread
    Robin Robin

    BRITISH SHORT FILM

    10 films have been longlisted, and five will be nominated. In Round One, members of the opt-in shorts chapter vote to form a preliminary longlist, and from the highest ranking films a jury vote for the longlist of 10 films. In Round Two, the jury vote on the nominations. In Round Three, an opt in chapter will select the winner.

    The Black Cop
    Three Meetings Of The Extraordinary Committee
    Femme
    The Palace
    Play It Safe
    Rough
    Roy
    Stuffed
    Punch-Drunk
    The Tunnel

    The BAFTA nominations will be announced on Thursday 3 February 2022.

    The BAFTA ceremony takes place on Sunday 13 March 2022.

    Source: Yahoo

  • Golden Globes 2022: ‘West Side Story’ Wins 3, ‘The Power of the Dog’ Wins Best Drama

    Golden Globes 2022: ‘West Side Story’ Wins 3, ‘The Power of the Dog’ Wins Best Drama

    Though the Golden Globes likely won’t have the weight they usually do as they weren’t televised and are being willfully ignored by the majority of the industry, they are still a major Oscar precursor. The Power of the Dog and West Side Story won 3 Globes a piece and though I’ve always had The Power of the Dog as my predicted Best Picture winner, the Globes are truly the first major precursor to release its picks so far and their selection of The Power of the Dog over Belfast (when I thought the award was surely going the latter) was a surprise that gave me more confidence about having the film as my #1 pick.

    Anyway, here are the winners:

    Film

    Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
    “Cyrano”
    “Don’t Look Up”
    “Licorice Pizza”
    “Tick, Tick … Boom!”
    “West Side Story” *WINNER
    Best Motion Picture — Drama
    “Belfast,”
    “CODA”
    “Dune”
    “King Richard”
    “The Power of the Dog” *WINNER
    Best Motion Picture — Foreign Language
    “Compartment No. 6”
    “Drive My Car” *WINNER
    “The Hand of God”
    “A Hero”
    “Parallel Mothers”
    Best Screenplay — Motion Picture
    Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”
    Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast” *WINNER
    Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
    Adam McKay, “Don’t Look Up”
    Aaron Sorkin , “Being the Ricardos”
    Best Original Song — Motion Picture
    “Be Alive” from “King Richard” – Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Dixson
    “Dos Orugitas” from “Encanto” – Lin-Manuel Miranda
    “Down to Joy” from “Belfast” – Van Morrison
    “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from “Respect” – Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson, Carole King
    “No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die” – Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell *WINNER
    Best Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
    Ben Affleck, “The Tender Bar”
    Jamie Dornan, “Belfast”
    Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”
    Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
    Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog” *WINNER
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
    Caitríona Balfe, “Belfast”
    Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” *WINNER
    Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”
    Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”
    Ruth Negga, “Passing
    Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
    Leonardo DiCaprio, “Don’t Look Up”
    Peter Dinklage, “Cyrano”
    Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!” *WINNER
    Cooper Hoffman, “Licorice Pizza”
    Anthony Ramos, “In the Heights”
    Best Motion Picture — Animated
    “Encanto” *WINNER
    “Flee”
    “Luca”
    “My Sunny Maad”
    “Raya and the Last Dragon”
    Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
    Mahershala Ali, “Swan Song”
    Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
    Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
    Will Smith, “King Richard” *WINNER
    Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
    Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
    Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
    Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”
    Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos” *WINNER
    Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”
    Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
    Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
    Marion Cotillard, “Annette”
    Alana Haim, “Licorice Pizza”
    Jennifer Lawrence, “Don’t Look Up”
    Emma Stone, “Cruella”
    Rachel Zegler, “West Side Story” *WINNER
    Best Director — Motion Picture
    Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”
    Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” *WINNER
    Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Lost Daughter”
    Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”
    Denis Villeneuve, “Dune”
    Best Original Score
    “The French Dispatch”
    “Encanto”
    “The Power of the Dog”
    “Parallel Mothers”
    “Dune” *WINNER

    Television

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
    Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish”
    Nicholas Hoult, “The Great”
    Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
    Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
    Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” *WINNER
    Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
    Hannah Einbender, “Hacks”
    Elle Fanning, “The Great”
    Issa Rae, “Insecure”
    Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish”
    Jean Smart, “Hacks” *WINNER
    Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Drama
    Brian Cox, “Succession”
    Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game”
    Billy Porter, “Pose”
    Jeremy Strong, “Succession” *WINNER
    Omar Sy, “Lupin”
    Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Drama
    Uzo Aduba, “In Treatment”
    Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
    Christine Baranski, “The Good Fight”
    Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
    Mj Rodriguez, “Pose” *WINNER
    Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
    Paul Bettany, “WandaVision”
    Oscar Isaac, “Scenes From a Marriage”
    Michael Keaton, “Dopesick” *WINNER
    Ewan McGregor, “Halston”
    Tahar Rahim, “The Serpent”
    Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
    Jessica Chastain, “Scenes From a Marriage”
    Cynthia Erivo, “Genius: Aretha”
    Elizabeth Olsen, “WandaVision”
    Margaret Qualley, “Maid”
    Kate Winslet, “Mare of Easttown” *WINNER
    Best Television Series Drama
    “Lupin”
    “The Morning Show”
    “Pose”
    “Squid Game”
    “Succession” *WINNER
    Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
    “Dopesick”
    “Impeachment: American Crime Story”
    “Maid”
    “Mare of Easttown”
    “The Underground Railroad” *WINNER
    Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
    Jennifer Coolidge, “White Lotus”
    Kaitlyn Dever, “Dopesick”
    Andie MacDowell, “Maid”
    Sarah Snook, “Succession” *WINNER
    Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”
    Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
    Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
    Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
    Mark Duplass, “The Morning Show”
    Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
    Oh Yeong-su, “Squid Game” *WINNER
    Best Television Series — Musical or Comedy
    “The Great”
    “Hacks” *WINNER
    “Only Murders in the Building”
    “Reservation Dogs”
    “Ted Lasso”
    Source: CNN
  • Late December Oscar Predictions

    Late December Oscar Predictions

    At this point, I believe that we can already limit the films that have a chance of winning Best Picture to a film with an 86+ Metascore or Belfast. So among the 21 films listed below, which are the only films I think have a chance at a Best Picture nomination at this point, only The Power of the Dog (88), Licorice Pizza (94), The Lost Daughter (88), The Tragedy of Macbeth (89), Parallel Mothers (86), Flee (88) have an 86+ Metascore. And to further shrink the pool, the only films that seem like they can win Best Picture at this point are The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, and Belfast.

    The reviews for Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza came out and its received more acclaim than almost any other movie this year so far. It won best film at NBR and won Best Screenplay at NYFCC. However, I think it will end up like Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: a critics’ favorite from one of the most respected directors working today that transports its audience to a bygone era of Hollywood’s history. However, I think, like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, some will think Anderson’s film overlong and slightly problematic (with the age-gap and a scene with a racist Japanese restaurant owner). However, with the acclaim its getting, it’s indisputably in the conversation and I really hope the overdue Anderson gets his first (HOW?!) Oscar.

    West Side Story is also getting fantastic reviews and I’m happy that I trusted Spielberg and kept the film in my line-up throughout the year. It’s a remake of one of the most acclaimed musicals ever put on screen and with Spielberg at the helm the film really leans into that Old Hollywood feel. It’s the kind of film that the old guard of the Academy would love and with the social commentary present, it’s one that the newer generation will probably get behind as well.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    CODA (Apple+)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+), The Lost Daughter (Netflix), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Spencer (NEON), Being the Ricardos (Amazon), House of Gucci (MGM), Cyrano (MGM), C’mon C’mon (A24), Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics), The Last Duel (20th Century), Passing (Netflix), Flee (NEON), Drive My Car (Janus), No Time to Die (United Artists)

    Campion, Spielberg, PTA, and Villeneuve are all essentially locked here. The question is who will take the fifth spot? I had Del Toro but with the good not great reviews for Nightmare Alley, I’m less sure of its chances across the board. So for me that leaves Coen and Branagh. The director branch is very favorable of auteurs so I think Branagh’s film is one that will be a top 5 contender in Picture but won’t get in Director. Coen’s work in ‘Macbeth’ could be rewarded but unless the film sees a slight surge in attention it will drop out of my Picture predictions and here as well. And then there are the auteurs like Hamaguchi, Larrain, Farhadi, and Almodovar. With the acclaim that these directors have, I definitely could see one of them taking that fifth slot, though BAFTA will likely make that much clearer.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Julia Ducournau – Titane, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter

    Benedict Cumberbatch, Peter Dinklage, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, and Denzel Washington all received nominations from both groups. I think Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington will all get nominated for their work but Dinklage in Cyrano doesn’t really seem like something that the Oscar will take to and I think Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos or Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up (both received Golden Globe nods) are more likely nominees. This seems to be between Cumberbatch and Smith for the top prize and unless something drastic occurs, Cumberbatch has both the visibility (he has a major role in what will be this year’s biggest box-office hit: Spider-Man: No Way Home) and the plaudits from the critics’ groups to take the win.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…Boom

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Nicolas Cage – Pig, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Simon Rex – Red Rocket

    In the last four years years, all five eventual Oscar Best Actress nominees were chosen at Critics Choice. This year’s nominees are Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Alana Haim, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart. All of these women received a Golden Globes nomination as well and four or five of them will be nominated for an Oscar this year. SAG will help us narrow it down but right now the top 5 is definitely Stewart, Colman, Kidman, Gaga, and Chastain. Chastain’s film has probably been forgotten by now and she might not have enough steam to get a nomination in February, and in the event of that happening someone from a stronger Best Picture contender like Rachel Zegler or Alana Haim can take her spot.

    In terms of the win, Stewart is the frontrunner at the critics’ awards right now. Her biggest competition at the Oscars seems to be Kidman at the moment, yet Kidman still hasn’t won one critics’ award. She still has a lot of time and if she racks up a handful I think she can win this but if not, Stewart has this in the bag.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Jump In: Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Emilia Jones – CODA.

    Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds, Troy Kotsur, and Kodi Smit-McPhee all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes. I think all four of these men will make it to the Oscars with the inclusion of either Licorice Pizza’s Bradley Cooper or The Power of the Dog’s Jesse Plemons as the fifth pick.

    Of the categories I have discussed so far, this one seems the most up-in-the-air when it comes to who I think will win. At the critics’ awards, Smit-McPhee is the clear frontrunner though I do think he might not be well-established enough and his work might be too subtle for the Academy’s tastes (I personally believe his performance was fantastic). I think Ciaran Hinds’ work in Belfast fits the more traditional winner in this category and he is my current pick to win though Troy Kotsur is definitely a dark horse.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Troy Kotsur – CODA

    Jamie Dornan – Belfast

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Could Jump In: Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar, Richard Jenkins – The Humans, Mike Faist – West Side Story, Jon Bernthal – King Richard

    Caitrona Balfe, Ariana DeBose, Kirsten Dunst, and Aunjanue Ellis all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes and I think all of them will be nominated at the Oscars. The question is who will be that last slot? I think it’s between Ruth Negga for Passing and Rita Moreno for West Side Story. I think if Negga continue to pick up critics’ awards she might drum up enough visibility for her to get the nomination but if West Side Story overperforms on nomination morning, Moreno is coming with it.

    For me, the contenders for the win are DeBose, Dunst, and Balfe. I think I’m leaning towards DeBose at it seems like she has a lot of momentum at this point in the race.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Caitrona Balfe – Belfast

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Could Jump In: Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Ann Dowd – Mass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Judi Dench – Belfast, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

    Licorice Pizza, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, and Being the Ricardos all hit both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes yet I think Being the Ricardos will miss at the Oscars. This has already happened twice for Sorkin as he was nominated at both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes for both Charlie Wilson’s War and Steve Jobs (He actually won at the Globes for this) yet ended up failing to be nominated at the Oscars.

    For those last two slots, I think its going to come down to King Richard, C’mon C’mon, or The French Dispatch. I think King Richard will get in on account of it being a Best Picture nominee but the last slot is more tricky. Everybody loves Wes Anderson so this may be the place where they might give him a nod here but C’mon C’mon is a movie that seems to be well-liked by everybody and it may become a surprise nominee here. It’s not something that Mike Mills is new to as his last film 20th Century Women also received its only Oscar nomination in Original Screenplay.

    For the win, this is between Licorice Pizza and Belfast. I think Paul Thomas Anderson (deservedly) has a very strong overdue narrative here and Licorice Pizza is his biggest Oscar contender since There Will Be Blood so there’s a very strong case for him winning. But watch out for Belfast because if it ends up being the Best Picture winner it will essentially have to win here as well.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, C’mon C’mon, Mass, Parallel Mothers, The Worst Person in the World, A Hero, Red Rocket

    The Power of the Dog is the only film that hit both awards bodies and is pretty much locked for a win in this category. The Lost Daughter, CODA, West Side Story, and Drive My Car are my picks for the last four slots though something like Dune, Nightmare Alley, or tick, tick…BOOM! could also be nominated. We’ll have to wait for BAFTA, WGA, and USC Scripter to make more informed conclusions about what will be nominated.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    The Lost Daughter

    CODA

    West Side Story

    Drive My Car

    Could Jump In: Passing,

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, The Summit of the Gods, Sing 2,

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    Cyrano

    West Side Story

    Spencer

    Could Jump In: Cruella, Belfast, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Belfast

    King Richard

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, No Time to Die, Licorice Pizza, tick, tick, Boom!, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Power of the Dog

    Dune

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Spencer, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, C’mon C’mon

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Cruella

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Cyrano

    Could Jump In: Coming 2 America, Nightmare Alley, The Suicide Squad, West Side Story, No Time to Die

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    No Time to Die

    tick, tick…BOOM!

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: The Power of the Dog, A Quiet Place: Part II, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Eternals

    Godzilla vs. Kong

    Could Jump In: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Ghostbusters: Afterlife. Free Guy, No Time to Die, Black Widow

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Spencer

    The French Dispatch

    Parallel Mothers

    Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, Encanto, The Tragedy of Macbeth, No Time to Die, Being the Ricardos

    Though Van Morrison’s been especially controversial lately, he’s also a much-revered artist and Academy members not in the know about his anti-lockdown rhetoric may just know “Astral Weeks” and “Moondance” and vote for him here. There’s no way he’s winning but he may just sneak in for a nomination.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    King Richard

    Encanto

    Don’t Look Up

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: CODA, Respect, The Harder They Fall, Annette, Bruised

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Drive My Car

    A Hero

    The Worst Person in the World

    The Hand of God

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, I’m Your Man, Lamb, The Good Boss, The Falls

    The Academy is not very supportive of documentaries based on archival footage and therefore I’m predicting Summer of Soul, the frontrunner in this category, to get snubbed.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Flee

    The Rescue

    Ascension

    Julia

    The First Wave

    Could Jump In: Summer of Soul, In the Same Breath, Procession, Attica, Writing With Fire

  • Post-Nominations Analysis: Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes

    Post-Nominations Analysis: Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes

    Now that the BFCA and the HFPA have announced the nominations for their respective awards, there are multiple races that become increasingly clear.

    BEST PICTURE

    As I said in the post announcing the Critics’ Choice nominations, “there are now 12 films that I think have a chance at a Best Picture nomination as they hit at least one of AFI, Golden Globes, or Critics Choice: Belfast, CODA, Cyrano, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and West Side Story.”

    Of those 12 films, there is no way Cyrano is getting a Best Picture nomination so that’s out. The slot for the last exclusion, I think, is between tick, tick…Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, and CODA. Who I choose as for the 11th slot will likely fluctuate as the season goes on. Right now I have The Tragedy of Macbeth missing. Even though its stars two of the most beloved actors working today in Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand and has an 89 Metascore, there doesn’t seem to be much passion for it. It isn’t showing up on too many best of 2021 critics lists and isn’t getting too many best picture nominations at critics’ awards either. If it starts picking up more steam once it has a proper release around Christmas I’ll slot it in, but right now I’m going to keep it out.

    In terms of what can win Best Picture, a stat that I want to mention is that no Best Picture winner in at least the last 10 years has won the award without being at least nominated for a Picture award, Best Director, and Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes. This year, two films fit that criteria: The Power of the Dog and Belfast. My pick to win is currently The Power of the Dog especially since only one film in the preferential era (Green Book) won Best Picture with a Metascore less than 86. Belfast has a 77 and The Power of the Dog is at an 88.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Kenneth Branagh, Jane Campion, Steven Spielberg, and Denis Villeneuve all made it into both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes, yet to me, only the last three directors are locked for an Oscar nod. In the last four years, six directors, Regina King, Aaron Sorkin, Peter Farrelly, Bradley Cooper, Martin McDonagh, and Steven Spielberg, all missed Director nods at the Oscars after hitting both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. I think Kenneth Branagh and Belfast would fit pretty well into this group. Paul Thomas Anderson will probably take the 4th slot and I’m going to be watching for BAFTA to see who’ll take the last slot but it could be Hamaguchi, Larrain, Ducournau, or someone completely different. Also, I think Campion is most definitely the frontrunner to win this.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch, Peter Dinklage, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, and Denzel Washington all received nominations from both groups. I think Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington will all get nominated for their work but Dinklage in Cyrano doesn’t really seem like something that the Oscar will take to and I think Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos or Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up (both received Golden Globe nods) are more likely nominees. This seems to be between Cumberbatch and Smith for the top prize and unless something drastic occurs, Cumberbatch has both the visibility (he has a major role in what will be this year’s biggest box-office hit: Spider-Man: No Way Home) and the plaudits from the critics’ groups to take the win.

    BEST ACTRESS

    In the last four years years, all five eventual Oscar Best Actress nominees were chosen at Critics Choice. This year’s nominees are Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Alana Haim, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart. All of these women received a Golden Globes nomination as well and four or five of them will be nominated for an Oscar this year. SAG will help us narrow it down but right now the top 5 is definitely Stewart, Colman, Kidman, Gaga, and Chastain. Chastain’s film has probably been forgotten by now and she might not have enough steam to get a nomination in February, and in the event of that happening someone from a stronger Best Picture contender like Rachel Zegler or Alana Haim can take her spot.

    In terms of the win, Stewart is the frontrunner at the critics’ awards right now. Her biggest competition at the Oscars seems to be Kidman at the moment, yet Kidman still hasn’t won one critics’ award. She still has a lot of time and if she racks up a handful I think she can win this but if not, Stewart has this in the bag.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds, Troy Kotsur, and Kodi Smit-McPhee all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes. I think all four of these men will make it to the Oscars with the inclusion of either Licorice Pizza’s Bradley Cooper or The Power of the Dog’s Jesse Plemons as the fifth pick.

    Of the categories I have discussed so far, this one seems the most up-in-the-air when it comes to who I think will win. At the critics’ awards, Smit-McPhee is the clear frontrunner though I do think he might not be well-established enough and his work might be too subtle for the Academy’s tastes (I personally believe his performance was fantastic, by the way). I think Ciaran Hinds’ work in Belfast fits the more traditional winner in this category and he is my current pick to win though Troy Kotsur is definitely a dark horse.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Caitrona Balfe, Ariana DeBose, Kirsten Dunst, and Aunjanue Ellis all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes and I think all of them will be nominated at the Oscars. The question is who will be that last slot? I think it’s between Ruth Negga for Passing and Rita Moreno for West Side Story. I think if Negga continue to pick up critics’ awards she might drum up enough visibility for her to get the nomination but if West Side Story overperforms on nomination morning, Moreno is coming with it.

    For me, the contenders for the win are DeBose, Dunst, and Balfe. I think I’m leaning towards DeBose at it seems like she has a lot of momentum at this point in the race.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, and Being the Ricardos all hit both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes yet I think Being the Ricardos will miss at the Oscars. This has already happened twice for Sorkin as he was nominated at both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes for both Charlie Wilson’s War and Steve Jobs (He actually won at the Globes for this) yet ended up failing to be nominated at the Oscars.

    For those last two slots, I think its going to come down to King Richard, C’mon C’mon, or The French Dispatch. I think King Richard will get in on account of it being a Best Picture nominee but the last slot is more tricky. Everybody loves Wes Anderson so this may be the place where they might give him a nod here but C’mon C’mon is a movie that seems to be well-liked by everybody and it may become a surprise nominee here. It’s not something that Mike Mills is new to as his last film 20th Century Women also received its only Oscar nomination in Original Screenplay.

    For the win, this is between Licorice Pizza and Belfast. I think Paul Thomas Anderson (deservedly) has a very strong overdue narrative here and Licorice Pizza is his biggest Oscar contender since There Will Be Blood so there’s a very strong case for him winning. But watch out for Belfast because if it ends up being the Best Picture winner it will essentially have to win here as well.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog is the only film that hit both awards bodies and is pretty much locked for a win in this category. The Lost Daughter, CODA, West Side Story, and Drive My Car are my picks for the last four slots though something like Dune, Nightmare Alley, or tick, tick…BOOM! could also be nominated. We’ll have to wait for BAFTA, WGA, and USC Scripter to make more informed conclusions about what will be nominated.