Awards Insights

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Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

BEST ACTOR

After watching The Power of the Dog, I was sure Benedict Cumberbatch was going to win this. I even thought that Will Smith could take GG, CCA, and SAG, but if Cumberbatch at least BAFTA he would win. Well, Will Smith has swept all the precursors and while Cumberbatch still has a chance to steal, it seems to be Smith’s moment.

Nominees:

Will Smith – King Richard – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

Pick: Will Smith – King Richard

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart are all the leads of biopics and, as a result, will likely split votes. Among the three, Chastain seems to have the edge since she didn’t have the uncanny-valley makeup of Kidman or the inaccessible-to-some film that Stewart had. As a result of this vote-splitting, Penelope Cruz and/or Olivia Colman could benefit. Cruz seems to have the most passion behind her performance but I’m still unsure about whether enough people saw the film. I’m going to go with precursor leader Chastain though anyone, most likely Cruz or Stewart, can steal.

Nominees:

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA, SAG

Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

Pick: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

2021 – Daniel Kaluuya – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2020 – Brad Pitt – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2019 – Mahershala Ali – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2018 – Sam Rockwell – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2017 – Mahershala Ali – SAG, CCA

2016 – Mark Rylance – BAFTA

2015 – JK Simmons – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

Troy Kotsur has so much love right now and he has won three of the four major precursors in this category. Even if CODA doesn’t win Picture, Kotsur should take this though I don’t see CODA becoming our Picture winner without Kotsur first taking this.

Nominees:

Troy Kotsur – CODA – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG

Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos

Pick: Troy Kotsur – CODA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ariana DeBose has swept this category so this really should be a no-brainer. However, Kirsten Dunst is beloved by so many and there does seem to be a semblance of a campaign to have the overdue Dunst win on her first nomination. However, I am personally going to stick with DeBose, who’s win in a musical reminds me of when Jennifer Hudson won for Dreamgirls.

Nominees:

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Judi Dench – Belfast

Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

Pick: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

March 26, 2022
Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

BEST SOUND

There’s no way this is not going to Dune. Sci-fi/action Best Picture nominee that’s swept the precursors? Yeah, this is one of the strongest locks of the night.

Nominees:

Dune – MPSE, BAFTA, CAS

West Side Story – MPSE

No Time to Die

Belfast

The Power of the Dog

Pick: Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Billie Eilish is an industry darling and No Time to Die is by far the most popular song of the bunch (It has oer five times as many Spotify plays as the second-most played song Dos Oruguitas). Eilish should be able to win though the previously-mentioned Dos Oruguitas and Beyonce’s Be Alive also have chances. Encanto, especially, should not be ignored as a major contender since Lin-Manuel Miranda seems to be one of the most beloved people in the industry and a win here will make him a member of the prestigious EGOT club.

Nominees:

No Time to Die – “No Time to Die” – GG, CCA, SCL

Encanto – “Dos Oruguitas”

King Richard – “Be Alive”

Belfast – “Down to Joy”

Four Good Days – “Somehow You Do”

Pick: No Time to Die

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Hans Zimmer has a pretty good narrative here. Dune is a passion project of his that he’s been dreaming of since he was young and he experimented extensively with instruments and sounds for the project. Encanto’s Germaine Franco has a chance here (though I think it has a better probability of taking Original Song), as does The Power of the Dog’s Jonny Greenwood.

Nominees:

Dune – GG, CCA, BAFTA

The Power of the Dog

Encanto – SCL

Don’t Look Up

Parallel Mothers

Pick: Dune

March 26, 2022
Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

BEST FILM EDITING

Because both BAFTA and CCA went with films (No Time to Die and West Side Story respectively) that are not nominees here, this category is really interesting. One stat I want to mention is that every Editing winner since Whiplash has won a Sound award as well, and the only nominees here that are also nominated for Sound are Dune and The Power of the Dog. If you look at the films that have recently been awarded in this category, they are usually centered around music, sports, war, and/or sci-fi action. Dune fits the last two boxes while The Power of the Dog doesn’t hit any. Therefore, Dune should take this.

Nominees:

Dune

King Richard – ACE (Drama)

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick…BOOM! – ACE (Comedy)

Don’t Look Up

Pick: Dune

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

In the last 20 years, only four winners have won this category without a nomination in Best Director (funnily enough, Villeneuve’s previous film Blade Runner 2049 won Best Cinematography although Villeneuve missed Director).

2021 – Mank – ASC

2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2014 – Gravity – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2013 – Life of Pi – BAFTA, CCA

Based on past winners, the Academy seems to like very flashy cinematography in this category. For this category, BAFTA and ASC are the most important precursors and Dune’s BAFTA-ASC combination should help it to victory. The last time a film with that combination with that combination lost the Oscar was Children of Men in 2007. The Power of the Dog and ‘Macbeth’ can steal, but this seems like Dune’s to lose.

Nominees:

Dune – BAFTA, ASC

The Power of the Dog – CCA

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Pick: Dune

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Cruella is the overwhelming favorite but two things give me pause. Firstly, every winner in the last 25 years has been set primarily in the 1950s or earlier or was a sci-fi/fantasy film. Secondly, in the last 30 years, only five films have won this award without a Production Design nod as well. Cruella is set in the 1970s. It has the flashiest costumes of the bunch and that alone should push it to the win but don’t be surprised if something like Dune or Nightmare Alley (which both have production design nominations unlike Cruella) steal.

Nominees:

Cruella – CCA, BAFTA, CDG (Period)

Dune – CDG (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)

Nightmare Alley

Cyrano

West Side Story

Pick: Cruella

March 24, 2022
Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Since Inside Out in 2015, every winner in this category has won at both CCA and PGA. This year, those two awards have split with CCA going to The Mitchells vs. the Machines and PGA going to Encanto. This is not a category where the Academy makes especially unique or groundbreaking picks (How are Howl’s Moving Castle, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, and Klaus not winners?). They usually go with Pixar films with Disney films like Zootopia, Big Hero 6, and Frozen recently making the cut. Disney’s Encanto is by far the biggest film of the nominees and has enough love and passion throughout the Academy for me to be confident with picking it here (even though Flee or ‘Mitchells’ would be personally preferred).

Nominees:

Encanto – GG, BAFTA, PGA

The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Annie, CCA

Flee – Annie (Indie)

Luca

Raya and the Last Dragon

Pick: Encanto

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

This one seems pretty obvious. The Worst Person in the World and Flee both received nominations in other categories, illustrating the support they both have, however, Drive My Car received nominations in Best Picture and Best Director and should easily win this.

Nominees:

Drive My Car – GG, CCA, BAFTA

The Worst Person in the World

Flee

The Hand of God

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

Pick: Drive My Car

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

No winner in this category in the past seven years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and the only nominee that fits that criterion is Summer of Soul. And I’m not even mentioning the fact that Questlove’s film has won at CCA, BAFTA, PGA, and ACE. It’s by far the leader in the precursors, has wide industry support, and is undoubtedly one of the most acclaimed films of the year.

Nominees:

Summer of Soul – CCA, PGA, ACE, BAFTA

Flee

Attica – DGA

Ascension

Writing With Fire

Pick: Summer of Soul

March 22, 2022
Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The last 10 winners in this category (Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in categories other than Visual Effects in addition to their Visual Effects nominations (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). Only Dune and No Time to Die can boast the same this year. The Academy also prefers CGI over practical effects in this category (with an exception to this trend being 1917), which benefits Dune. I personally believe this is one of the easiest to predict awards of the year since Dune has had this in the bag basically since it was announced.

Nominees:

Dune – BAFTA, VES (x4)

Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Free Guy

Pick: Dune

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG

2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

As you can see from this list of the last seven winners in this category, CCA and ADG are incredibly important precursors here. This year, Dune won BAFTA, CCA, and an ADG award so from a precursor perspective, it’s the obvious frontrunner. Nightmare Alley received an ADG win as well, but Dune has dominated the precursors in this category and the Academy has chosen enough sci-fi films here (Black Panther and Mad Max: Fury Road) for me to be confident about picking it.

Nominees:

Dune – BAFTA, CCA, SDSA, ADG

Nightmare Alley – ADG

West Side Story

The Tragedy of Macbeth

The Power of the Dog

Pick: Dune

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

The last four winners in this category went to biopic films showcasing famous actors transforming physically into famous figures partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye fits this trend and even though the film didn’t win a MUAH, which is something the last seven winners won, it should still win. 6 of the 7 of these past winners went to films who were also nominated in above-the-line categories (Suicide Squad is the exception but none of its competitors were nominated in above-the-line categories either). This year, The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Dune are the only two nominees that have ATL nominations and since the former has precursor wins, it should win.

Nominees:

The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA

Cruella – MUAH

Coming 2 America – MUAH (x3)

Dune

House of Gucci

Pick: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

March 20, 2022
Current Oscar Predictions 2022 (Updating)

These will be my predictions that are subject to an update at any point I change my mind about a category.

BEST PICTURE: The Power of the Dog

Could Steal: CODA

BEST DIRECTOR: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Could Steal: No one

BEST ACTOR: Will Smith – King Richard

Could Steal: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

BEST ACTRESS: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Could Steal: Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Troy Kotsur – CODA

Could Steal: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

Could Steal: Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Belfast

Could Steal: Licorice Pizza or Don’t Look Up

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: CODA

Could Steal: The Power of the Dog

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Encanto

Could Steal: The Mitchells vs. the Machines or Flee

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Dune

Could Steal: Nightmare Alley

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Dune

Could Steal: The Power of the Dog or The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Cruella

Could Steal: Dune or Nightmare Alley

BEST EDITING: Dune

Could Steal: No one

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Could Steal: Dune, Cruella, or Coming 2 America

BEST SOUND: Dune

Could Steal: No one

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune

Could Steal: No one

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Dune

Could Steal: The Power of the Dog

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: No Time to Die

Could Steal: Encanto

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Drive My Car

Could Steal: No one

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Summer of Soul

Could Steal: Flee

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Robin Robin

Could Steal: Bestia

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Long Goodbye

Could Steal: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run or Please Hold

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Queen of Basketball

Could Steal: Three Songs for Benazir or Audible

March 16, 2022
Critics Choice Awards: Campion, Smith, and DeBose Complete Their Sweeps

Jane Campion, Will Smith, and Ariana DeBose have swept all four major precursors in their respective categories and are essentially locked for wins come Oscar night. The Power of the Dog has now won the Golden Globe, the DGA, the BAFTA, and the CCA for Best Film and will likely win the PGA as well on Saturday. It’s already indisputably the frontrunner for the win, but if TPOTD wins the PGA, I really won’t be able to see any other film earning the top prize.

In other news, Jessica Chastain and Troy Kotsur won in their respective categories and I think Kotsur will most probably win as a result of him earning 3 (SAG, BAFTA, CCA) of the major precursor awards. I think Kodi Smit-McPhee needed a win here for me to continue to have him as my frontrunner in Supporting Actor but since Kotsur ended up winning, I think the CODA star is the favorite.

I was expecting three different actresses to win GG, SAG, and CCA, yet Jessica Chastain has now won the latter two. With these wins, she is automatically catapulted to frontrunner status, though she is easily the most vulnerable of any of the other acting category frontrunners.

Here are the Critics Choice results:

FILM

BEST PICTURE

The Power of the Dog (WINNER)

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

Tick, Tick … Boom!

West Side Story

BEST ACTOR

Will Smith – King Richard (WINNER)

Nicolas Cage – Pig

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Peter Dinklage – Cyrano

Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick … Boom!

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (WINNER)

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart – Spencer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Troy Kotsur – CODA (WINNER)

Jamie Dornan – Belfast

Ciarán Hinds – Belfast

Jared Leto – House of Gucci

J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (WINNER)

Caitríona Balfe – Belfast

Ann Dowd – Mass

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Rita Moreno – West Side Story

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Jude Hill – Belfast (WINNER)

Cooper Hoffman – Licorice Pizza

Emilia Jones – CODA

Woody Norman – C’mon, C’mon

Saniyya Sidney – King Richard

Rachel Zegler – West Side Story

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Belfast (WINNER)

Don’t Look Up

The Harder They Fall

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

BEST DIRECTOR

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (WINNER)

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve – Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (WINNER)

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

Zach Baylin – King Richard

Adam McKay, David Sirota – Don’t Look Up

Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (WINNER)

Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter

Siân Heder – CODA

Tony Kushner – West Side Story

Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth – Dune

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Ari Wegner – The Power of the Dog (WINNER)

Bruno Delbonnel – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Greig Fraser – Dune

Janusz Kaminski – West Side Story

Dan Laustsen – Nightmare Alley

Haris Zambarloukos – Belfast

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos – Dune (WINNER)

Jim Clay, Claire Nia Richards – Belfast

Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau – Nightmare Alley

Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo – The French Dispatch

Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo – West Side Story

BEST EDITING

Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn – West Side Story (WINNER)

Úna Ní Dhonghaíle – Belfast

Andy Jurgensen – Licorice Pizza

Peter Sciberras – The Power of the Dog

Joe Walker – Dune

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Jenny Beavan – Cruella (WINNER)

Luis Sequeira – Nightmare Alley

Paul Tazewell – West Side Story

Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan – Dune

Janty Yates – House of Gucci

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

The Eyes of Tammy Faye (WINNER) Cruella

Dune

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune (WINNER)

The Matrix Resurrections

Nightmare Alley

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

BEST COMEDY

Licorice Pizza (WINNER) Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar

Don’t Look Up

Free Guy

The French Dispatch

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Mitchells vs. the Machines (WINNER) Encanto

Flee

Luca

Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Drive My Car (WINNER)

A Hero

Flee

The Hand of God

The Worst Person in the World

BEST SONG

“No Time to Die” – No Time to Die (WINNER)

“Be Alive” – King Richard

“Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto

“Guns Go Bang” – The Harder They Fall

“Just Look Up” – Don’t Look Up

BEST SCORE

Hans Zimmer – Dune (WINNER)

Nicholas Britell – Don’t Look Up

Jonny Greenwood – The Power of the Dog

Jonny Greenwood – Spencer

Nathan Johnson – Nightmare Alley

TELEVISION

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Succession (HBO) (WINNER)

Evil (Paramount+)

For All Mankind (Apple TV+)

The Good Fight (Paramount+)

Pose (FX)

Squid Game (Netflix)

This Is Us (NBC)

Yellowjackets (Showtime)

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Lee Jung-jae – Squid Game (Netflix) (WINNER)

Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us (NBC)

Mike Colter – Evil (Paramount+)

Brian Cox – Succession (HBO)

Billy Porter – Pose (FX)

Jeremy Strong – Succession (HBO)

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets (Showtime) (WINNER)

Uzo Aduba – In Treatment (HBO)

Chiara Aurelia – Cruel Summer (Freeform)

Christine Baranski – The Good Fight (Paramount+)

Katja Herbers – Evil (Paramount+)

MJ Rodriguez – Pose (FX)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Kieran Culkin – Succession (HBO) (WINNER)

Nicholas Braun – Succession (HBO)

Billy Crudup – The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

Justin Hartley – This Is Us (NBC)

Matthew Macfadyen – Succession (HBO)

Mandy Patinkin – The Good Fight (Paramount+)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Sarah Snook – Succession (HBO) (WINNER)

Andrea Martin – Evil (Paramount+)

Audra McDonald – The Good Fight (Paramount+)

Christine Lahti – Evil (Paramount+)

J. Smith-Cameron – Succession (HBO)

Susan Kelechi Watson – This Is Us (NBC)

BEST COMEDY SERIES

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) (WINNER)

The Great (Hulu)

Hacks (HBO Max)

Insecure (HBO)

Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

The Other Two (HBO Max)

Reservation Dogs (FX on Hulu)

What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) (WINNER)

Iain Armitage – Young Sheldon (CBS)

Nicholas Hoult – The Great (Hulu)

Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Kayvan Novak – What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Jean Smart – Hacks (HBO Max) (WINNER)

Elle Fanning – The Great (Hulu)

Renée Elise Goldsberry – Girls5eva (Peacock)

Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Sandra Oh – The Chair (Netflix)

Issa Rae – Insecure (HBO)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) (WINNER)

Ncuti Gatwa – Sex Education (Netflix)

Harvey Guillén – What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Brandon Scott Jones – Ghosts (CBS)

Ray Romano – Made for Love (HBO Max)

Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live (NBC)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) (WINNER)

Hannah Einbinder – Hacks (HBO Max)

Kristin Chenoweth – Schmigadoon! (Apple TV+)

Molly Shannon – The Other Two (HBO Max)

Cecily Strong – Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Josie Totah – Saved By the Bell (Peacock)

BEST LIMITED SERIES

Mare of Easttown (HBO) (WINNER)

Dopesick (Hulu)

Dr. Death (Peacock)

It’s a Sin (HBO Max)

Maid (Netflix)

Midnight Mass (Netflix)

The Underground Railroad (Amazon Prime Video)

WandaVision (Disney+)

BEST MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Oslo (HBO) (WINNER)

Come From Away (Apple TV+)

List of a Lifetime (Lifetime)

The Map of Tiny Perfect Things (Amazon Prime Video)

Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia (Lifetime)

Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas (The Roku Channel)

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Michael Keaton – Dopesick (Hulu) (WINNER)

Olly Alexander – It’s a Sin (HBO Max)

Paul Bettany – WandaVision (Disney+)

William Jackson Harper – Love Life (HBO Max)

Joshua Jackson – Dr. Death (Peacock)

Hamish Linklater – Midnight Mass (Netflix)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Kate Winslet – Mare of Easttown (HBO) (WINNER)

Danielle Brooks – Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia (Lifetime)

Cynthia Erivo – Genius: Aretha (National Geographic)

Thuso Mbedu – The Underground Railroad (Amazon Prime Video)

Elizabeth Olsen – WandaVision (Disney+)

Margaret Qualley – Maid (Netflix)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus (HBO) (WINNER)

Zach Gilford – Midnight Mass (Netflix)

William Jackson Harper – The Underground Railroad (Amazon Prime Video)

Evan Peters – Mare of Easttown (HBO)

Christian Slater – Dr. Death (Peacock)

Courtney B. Vance – Genius: Aretha (National Geographic)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus (HBO) (WINNER)

Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick (Hulu)

Kathryn Hahn – WandaVision (Disney+)

Melissa McCarthy – Nine Perfect Strangers (Hulu)

Julianne Nicholson – Mare of Easttown (HBO)

Jean Smart – Mare of Easttown (HBO)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE SERIES

Squid Game (Netflix) (WINNER)

Acapulco (Apple TV+)

Call My Agent! (Netflix)

Lupin (Netflix)

Money Heist (Netflix)

Narcos: Mexico (Netflix)

BEST ANIMATED SERIES

What If…? (Disney+) (WINNER)

Big Mouth (Netflix)

Bluey (Disney+)

Bob’s Burgers (Fox)

The Great North (Fox)

Q-Force (Netflix)

BEST TALK SHOW

Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO) (WINNER)

The Amber Ruffin Show (Peacock)

Desus & Mero (Showtime)

The Kelly Clarkson Show (NBC)

Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC)

Watch What Happens Live With Andy Cohen (Bravo)

BEST COMEDY SPECIAL

Bo Burnham: Inside (Netflix) (WINNER)

Good Timing With Jo Firestone (Peacock)

James Acaster: Cold Lasagne Hate Myself 1999 (Vimeo)

Joyelle Nicole Johnson: Love Joy (Peacock)

Nate Bargatze: The Greatest Average American (Netflix)

Trixie Mattel: One Night Only (YouTube)

Source: The Hollywood Reporter

March 14, 2022
Post-Oscar Nominations Analysis

BEST PICTURE

A stat that I want to mention is that no Best Picture winner in at least the last 10 years has won the award without being at least nominated for a Picture award, Best Director, and Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes.

The only two films that received those nominations were The Power of the Dog and Belfast.

Another notable stat is that in the preferential era, only one Best Picture-winning film (Birdman which was made to look like it was filmed in one shot) was not nominated in Best Editing as well. Of The Power of the Dog and Belfast, only the former film has been nominated for Best Editing. What this tells me is that I am even more confident about having The Power of the Dog as my Best Picture winner.

Nominations snubs and surprises:

Drive My Car!!! It’s fantastic that we live in a world where a 3-hour Japanese film can get nominated for Best Picture (in addition to Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay). Many were predicting it but it’s still great to see.

Tick, tick, BOOM! misses and Nightmare Alley makes it in. Though tick, tick, BOOM! had CCA and PGA, it apparently did not have the level of support that Nightmare Alley had. I think this inclusion shows how powerful of a campaigning machine Searchlight is. They almost always get at least one of their films in, even when they don’t seem like they have very much support. I don’t think any other distributor could’ve pushed Nightmare Alley into Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR

Denis Villeneuve’s snub here was pretty shocking and I’m still surprised as I thought someone like Branagh was more likely to miss for Hamaguchi. Well, Campion still has this win secured and I can easily see her sweeping all the major directing precursors on the way to the Oscars.

BEST ACTOR

What’s interesting to me is that Being the Ricardos received three acting nominations (Javier Bardem, Nicole Kidman, and J.K. Simmons) yet didn’t hit Original Screenplay and ended up not making Picture. I had a feeling that Sorkin wasn’t going to get a Screenplay nod since the writers branch historically aligns more with critics than other branches, but the fact that the film got the acting nods it did shows to me how much the Academy is infatuated with biopic performances and specifically, portrayals of Hollywood figures.

Anyways other than Bardem, the other four men (Cumberbatch, Smith, Garfield, and Washington) have been locked in for a while and all of them got in. My winner prediction at this point is Cumberbatch.

BEST ACTRESS

Lady Gaga missing and Penelope Cruz getting in were definitely big surprises. Gaga was the only actress to get nods from all of the major precursors and they still didn’t nominate her, showing to me that they really were not too keen on House of Gucci, which didn’t even get a Costume Design nomination (it only received a nod in Makeup & Hairstyling).

In other news, Kristen Stewart. who missed at both SAG and at BAFTA (which went 0 for 5 with the Oscar Best Actress field this year), got in at the Oscars and was the sole nomination for Spencer. Now that she has been nominated, she definitely has a chance to win though I still think Kidman has the best chance though Stewart or Colman are close behind.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Plemons’ inclusion here is indicative of the broad support The Power of the Dog has. For a chamber drama like The Power of the Dog to be the nomination leader (12) is really an achievement and it makes me even more confident about predicting it for the win. And it’s great to see Plemons finally receive an Oscar nomination after being in six Best Picture nominees in the last seven years. As I mentioned previously JK Simmons was a surprise inclusion here, and slightly less surprisingly, Bradley Cooper missed.

Cooper was in Licorice Pizza for less than ten minutes but was seen in the predictions of many. The fact that both Alana Haim and Cooper missed as well as Andy Jurgensen in Editing shows that Licorice Pizza is most definitely not a top-3 Best Picture contender and might even miss an Original Screenplay win (which would be maddening as Paul Thomas Anderson needs an Oscar ASAP).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This was the first-announced award of the presentation and when I saw it, I knew we were in for a very interesting slate of nominees. Jessie Buckley and Judi Dench got in while Caitriona Balfe and Ruth Negga missed. Balfe’s omission is especially surprising as she, like Lady Gaga in Best Actress, hit all the major precursors and was included by many to be the best part of Belfast. To me, her exclusion is even more surprising than Gaga’s since her film is a top-tier Best Picture contender. Dench was instead this category’s representation for Branagh’s film and has now received eight nominations in twenty-four years.

Jessie Buckley’s inclusion was a welcome surprise and I think it really exemplifies the main theme of this year’s nominees as a whole. The Oscars are not going to lean in to calls to become more populist. With Buckley’s nod here, the three above-the-line nominations for Drive My Car, and the nomination for Penelope Cruz, among other inspired picks (including The Worst Person in the World’s inclusion over Being the Ricardos in Original Screenplay), the Academy seems to be defiantly ignoring requests to become more aligned with the tastes of the general population (such as the movement to try to get Spider-Man: No Way Home a Best Picture nomination). While this is probably good news for lovers of international and more daring cinema, the Oscars do run the risk of alienating people, though it seems that the Academy could not care less, and that mindset could show up in who they choose as their winners in March.

February 8, 2022
Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Acting Categories

The first four men are essentially locked for nominations as they have been for over a month now. My fifth pick is between DiCaprio and Bardem. As I’ve mentioned previously, Best Actor is often connected with Best Picture and while both DiCaprio and Bardem are in top-12 Best Picture contenders, DiCaprio is one of the biggest movie stars of the 21st century and is in the bigger Best Picture contender.

BEST ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Will Smith – King Richard – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! – GG, CCA, SAG

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth – GG, CCA, SAG

Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up – GG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos – GG, SAG, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano – GG, CCA

I don’t even know where to begin with this category. I think Lady Gaga and Nicole Kidman are locks but the last three slots seem very wide-open to me. Close behind Gaga and Kidman is Olivia Colman. Like Kidman, Colman has appeared at all the non-juried major precursors, though her BAFTA miss was slightly surprising.

Speaking of BAFTA, their nominees in this category were chosen by a system where the whole academy voted on two nominees and a jury picked the other six. Lady Gaga was definitely one of those two picks and the other one was most probably Alana Haim, which leads me to believe that she will be nominated here as she was (presumably) second in voting at the BAFTAs

BEST ACTRESS

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG, CCA, SAG

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter – GG, CCA, SAG

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – GG, CCA, SAG

Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Kristen Stewart – Spencer – GG, CCA, Jennifer Hudson – Respect – SAG, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Kodi Smit-McPhee, Ciaran Hinds, and Troy Kotsur are all locks and Bradley Cooper, Jesse Plemons, Jared Leto, Jamie Dornan, and Ben Affleck are the only guys I think could fill those last two slots.

The first actor I’m going to remove from the five is Ben Affleck. He fits the mold of a big actor those two groups like yet is in a film that is a non-entity in all other categories and misses out on an Oscar nod in the end (Jared Leto for The Little Things, Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, and Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation are examples).

I am going to put Bradley Cooper in that fourth slot. He is the biggest name in a top 5 Best Picture contender and is cited by many as their favorite part of the film. Even though he only has a SAG nod and is in the film for less than 10 minutes, he seems more secure than Leto, Dornan, or Plemons.

The next actor I am going to take out is Dornan since I don’t think he has the body of work that Plemons has or the (inexplicable) industry respect that Jared Leto has. That means that last spot is between Leto and Plemons. I think Leto has a chance of getting a Razzie nomination for his performance but it’s also true that the Academy likes these prosthetic-laden roles. However, unlike Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy, Jared Leto’s Razzie-worthy work probably won’t be rewarded since he doesn’t have the overdue narrative that Close seems to have annually. That’s why I am going to go with Plemons, who has been in so many Best Picture nominees and has yet to been nominated for his consistently good work.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Ciaran Hinds – Belfast – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Troy Kotsur – CODA – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza – SAG

Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog – BAFTA

Could Jump In: Jared Leto – House of Gucci – CCA, SAG, Jamie Dornan – Belfast – GG, CCA, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar – GG, SAG

The first three, DeBose, Balfe, and Dunst, are locked for nominations and the last two slots are really between three actresses: Ellis, Negga, and Dowd. Ellis and Negga have hit more precursors than Dowd and therefore have better chances of getting included. I was initially hesitant about including Negga but, in the last 10 years, two actresses Kathy Bates and Helen Hunt for the sole nominees for their respective films, and therefore my prediction of Negga being her film’s only nod has precedent.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Caitriona Balfe – Belfast – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, SAG

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Ruth Negga – Passing – GG, SAG, BAFTA

Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass – CCA, BAFTA

February 7, 2022
Final 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

Six films: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, and Don’t Look Up are undeniably locked for Picture nominations. CODA and King Richard follow close behind though I can see there being a world where either CODA or King Richard miss.

The last two slots are a lot trickier in my eyes and I have honestly spent hours trying to decide on the films that will make those last two slots. There are five films that I think can get those last two slots: tick, tick…BOOM!, Drive My Car, Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley, and The Tragedy of Macbeth.

One thing I am looking at is what films have passion behind them? I know for sure that Drive My Car has very passionate fans and critics and many international members have passionately supported it. The IMDb scores of these five films are as follows: Drive My Car (7.9), tick, tick…BOOM! (7.6), Nightmare Alley (7.3), The Tragedy of Macbeth (7.3), and Being the Ricardos (6.6). As you can see, after Drive My Car, tick, tick…BOOM! has the highest IMDb score and I feel that supporters of Andrew Garfield’s performance, Broadway lovers, and supporters of Lin-Manuel Miranda will push this film over the hump. Of these five films, it has also hit the most precursors.

Being the Ricardos seems like a traditional nominee in this category: a biopic with the political turmoil of the subject’s time period in the background. However, the film’s Metascore (60) and mainly it’s IMDb score (6.6) really give me pause about predicting the film though it’s definitely in the 11th slot and could very well get in.

BEST PICTURE

The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

Belfast (Focus) – AFI (Special Award), NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

Dune (Warner Bros.) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

Licorice Pizza (MGM) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA

West Side Story (20th Century) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, PGA

Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

CODA (Apple+) – AFI, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

King Richard (Warner Bros.) – AFI, NBR, GG, CCA, SAG, PGA

tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – AFI, GG, CCA, PGA

Drive My Car (Janus) –

Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – PGA, Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – AFI, NBR, CCA, The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+) – AFI, NBR

I think that there are really two possibilities for what can occur here, the DGA five of Campion, Villeneuve, Spielberg, PTA, and Branagh get in or Hamaguchi replaces Branagh. I don’t see anything else happening and I am going to play it safe as I think all of these filmmakers, Branagh included, have enough respect as directors unlike previous people who have missed here like Aaron Sorkin or Peter Farrelly. Even if Drive My Car gets into BP, I think Hamaguchi has a better shot in Adapted Screenplay than here in Director.

BEST DIRECTOR

Jane Campion – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

Denis Villeneuve – GG, CCA, DGA

Steven Spielberg – GG, CCA, DGA

Paul Thomas Anderson – CCA, DGA, BAFTA

Kenneth Branagh – GG, CCA, DGA

Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – BAFTA

February 7, 2022