The Golden Globes, AFI, and Critics Choice awards have all been released and with them comes a clearer picture of what the Best Picture race will most probably end up looking like. At this point, I can essentially guarantee that EEAAO, The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Tar will be receiving Best Picture nods. They are the biggest contenders this year and other than hitting all the major precursors, they’ve also performed the best at the critics’ awards thus far.
The films that I see as very close to locked yet could also foresee a scenario where they don’t get a Best Picture nod are Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking, Babylon, and Elvis. All four of these films have done very well so far and have hit enough precursors for me to be confident in their inclusion, but a couple of factors here and there keep me from naming them guarantees.
That leaves two slots. One thing to note is that in the last four years, there has been at least one Netflix film nominated and, in the last three there have been two a year. In this year’s top eight, I have not included a Netflix film meaning that one of these last two slots will be filled by the streamer. RRR and Glass Onion are Netflix’s two biggest films this year and while both making it is a possibility, I don’t see it happening. RRR is the film with more passion and with a Best Director award from NYFCC and a CCA nod under its belt I can see the film being this year’s primarily non-English inclusion (the last four years have seen at least one primarily non-English film nominated). I am choosing Avatar 2 to fill in the last slot as of the remaining films it has hit the most precursors.
BEST PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), AFI
The Fabelmans (Universal) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), AFI (Special Award)
Tar (Focus) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI
Women Talking (MGM) – CCA, AFI
Babylon (Paramount) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical)
Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI
RRR (Netflix) – CCA
Avatar 2 (20th Century) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI
Could Jump In: Aftersun, She Said (Universal) – AFI, Glass Onion (Netflix) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), The Woman King (Sony) – AFI, Till (MGM), Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG (Comedy/Musical), All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix), Bardo (Netflix), Decision to Leave (MUBI), Empire of Light (Searchlight), The Whale (A24)
Without DGA (the strongest predictor of this category), this category can be very hard to predict. However, I still believe I can safely say that Spielberg and the Daniels are pretty much locked and are the only two directors that have a realistic chance of taking this award come March. If RRR gets into Picture, I think NYFCC winner Rajamouli could follow it into Director in turn.
While The Fabelmans could very likely give Spielberg his third Director Oscar, I think Everything Everywhere All at Once is too strong and take Director, if not the trifecta of Picture, Director, and Screenplay.
BEST DIRECTOR
Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA
Todd Field – Tar – CCA
Sarah Polley – Women Talking – CCA
S.S. Rajamouli – RRR – CCA
Could Jump In: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, Damien Chazelle – Babylon – CCA, James Cameron – Avatar 2 – GG, CCA, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis – GG, CCA, Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness, Gina Prince-Blythewood – The Woman King – CCA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale
For the past five years in this category, the Critics Choice Awards have either chosen all of the eventual Oscar nominees or four. With that in mind, we can assume that at least four of Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, Paul Mescal, Bill Nighy, and Tom Cruise will be nominated. The former three (Farrell, Fraser, and Butler) are essentially locked for nominations at this point as they are far and away the leaders at the critics’ awards in terms of nominations. Which means at a minimum, at least one of Mescal, Nighy, or Cruise will be nominated. Since Bradley Cooper missed a Golden Globe nod in 2014, every eventual Best Actor nominee received a Golden Globe nomination en route to becoming an Oscar nominee (Banderas and Yeun being exceptions as films in contention for the Globes’ foreign language film prize couldn’t make their performances eligible for the lead acting categories until this year). With that in mind, Nighy, Jackman, and Calva are the most likely of the remaining seven Globe nominees to receive a nomination. Since Nighy is the only one with a CCA nod I’ll choose him and since Calva is essentially a newcomer I’ll go with Jackman even though Calva’s film is a much more likely Best Picture nominee.
This category often rewards very transformative performances. In just the last few years, we’ve seen Oldman as Churchill, Malek as Freddie Mercury, Phoenix as the Joker, and Smith as Richard Williams all win in this category. Of the three performances that are most likely to win in this category, Fraser’s and Butler’s are the transformative ones, while Farrell’s is relatively understated (and phenomenal). However, Fraser’s The Whale has an incredibly slim chance of receiving a Best Picture nomination
The last time a winner in this category has won for a performance in a film not nominated for Best Picture was Jeff Bridges for 2009’s Crazy Heart. This category especially
BEST ACTOR
Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG (Drama), CCA
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG (Comedy/Musical), CCA
Austin Butler – Elvis – GG (Drama), CCA
Bill Nighy – Living – GG (Drama), CCA
Hugh Jackman – The Son – GG (Drama)
Could Jump In: Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, Diego Calva – Babylon – GG (Comedy/Musical), Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, Adam Driver – White Noise – GG (Comedy/Musical), Daniel Craig – Glass Onion – GG (Comedy/Musical), Song Kang-Ho – Broker
The CCA nominees are Blanchett, Yeoh, Deadwyler, Williams, Davis, and Robbie and I think the five eventual Oscar Actress nominees will come from this six. The question is which one of these six will miss. Past history implies that a Globe nod is usually required to be nominated for an Oscar in this category later on (the last time a Best Actress nominee was nominated without a Globe nod was Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years), which would mean Davis and Robbie receiving nominations as Deadwyler was snubbed by the Globes. If Robbie receives a SAG nom I don’t see her missing but until then I’ll stick with Davis and Deadwyler.
The biggest mystery with this category is who will end up triumphing between Blanchett and Yeoh. Both are phenomenal and completely deserving. I think Yeoh has the zeitgeist but I feel like Blanchett is responsible for a performance that I believe is more like what Oscar usually rewards in this category. I am going to with Blanchett for now, but I think Yeoh has a 49% chance of winning this at this point, we need the precursors to be sure.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Tar – CCA, GG (Drama)
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical)
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – CCA, GG (Drama)
Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA
Viola Davis – The Woman King – CCA, GG (Drama)
Could Jump In: Margot Robbie – Babylon – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Olivia Colman – Empire of Light – GG (Drama), Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG (Drama), Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande – GG (Comedy/Musical), Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway
At least three of the Globe nominees will be nominated for the Oscar (most likely) and at least four of the Critics Choice nominees will be nominated for the Oscar. Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are locked as they’ve hit the most precursors by far. Even though Paul Dano surprisingly missed at the Globes, I think he’s pretty much locked as well. I have a feeling either Keoghan or Hirsch (but not both) will be nominated and since Keoghan made both GG and CCA, he seems most poised to be nominated. Whishaw’s role seems like one that is often nominated here and if he gets a SAG nod, he should follow that up with a nod from Oscar as well, but he needs that SAG nod if he even wants that to be a consideration.
Though Gleeson has a pretty solid shot at winning this, Quan has won the most critics’ awards by a wide margin and being in what is presumed to be this year’s Best Picture winner can’t hurt him.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking
Could Jump In: Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans – CCA, Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA, Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness, Michael Ward – Empire of Light
This is one of the hardest major categories to predict at this point as everything feels so up-in-the-air and no performance seems safe for a nomination except for Kerry Condon. Having watched The Banshees of Inisherin, I can confirm that Condon is fantastic but I’m really not sure her performance is of the kind that the academy likes to award in this category. However, none of the biggest contenders have a performance that traditionally would win in this category, meaning that Condon will be my pick to win it for now (If Michelle Williams was category frauded and entered into Supporting she would’ve taken this easily).
Hsu, Curtis, and Buckley are all in likely Best Picture nominees so I’ll go with them as the next three. That leaves the last slot between Chau, Monae, Foy, Mulligan, and Bassett. I don’t see Women Talking getting two of its actresses in so that leaves out Foy. Even though she’s done very well at the precursors I still don’t see a superhero performance getting nominated even if Bassett is deserving. While Monae and Chau are doing very well with the critics’ groups, I think I’m going to go with the twice-nominated Mulligan to receive her third.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Jessie Buckley – Women Talking
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG
Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG
Could Jump In: Janelle Monae – Glass Onion, Hong Chau – The Whale, Claire Foy – Women Talking, Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, Nina Hoss – Tar, Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King
Either 4 or 5 of the Critics Choice nominees in this category have been nominated for the O. Screenplay Oscar in this category. The first four seem almost locked and the last slot is really between Triangle of Sadness, Aftersun, and Babylon. I’ll go with Cannes winner Triangle of Sadness as it has been giving attention in other categories such as Director and Supporting Actress and this seems like the best place for the fans of the film in the Academy to award it.
While I think Everything Everywhere All at Once will take this if Spielberg ends up winning Director, McDonagh has won the most critics awards so far and I give him a 50.1% chance of taking this.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA
Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA
The Fabelmans – GG, CCA
Tar – GG, CCA
Triangle of Sadness
Could Jump In: Aftersun – CCA, Babylon, The Menu, Elvis, Nope
Women Talking is most likely going to take this and I think Polley’s screenplay and Glass Onion are pretty much locked here for nominations. Living is a screenplay written by legendary author Kazuo Ichiguro adapting one of the most important films of the 50s: Kurosawa’s Ikiru. If that’s not screenplay branch bait, I don’t know what is. White Noise is Noah Baumbach’s adaptation of the seminal Don DeLillo novel and I think it has a great chance of being a spoiler contender come nominations morning.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Women Talking – GG, CCA
Glass Onion – CCA
The Whale – CCA
Living – CCA
White Noise
Could Jump In: She Said – CCA, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Son, Bones and All
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Pinocchio – GG, CCA
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – GG, CCA
Turning Red – GG, CCA
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – GG, CCA
Apollo 10 1/2
Could Jump In: Wendell & Wild – CCA, My Father’s Dragon, Strange World, Inu-Oh – GG, Apollo 10 ½, Lightyear
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Babylon – CCA
The Fabelmans – CCA
Elvis – CCA
Black Panther 2 – CCA
Avatar 2 – CCA
Could Jump In: Glass Onion, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Top Gun: Maverick – CCA
Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA
The Fabelmans – CCA
Babylon – CCA
Empire of Light – CCA
Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tar – CCA
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Elvis – CCA
Babylon – CCA
Black Panther 2 – CCA
The Woman King – CCA
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Could Jump In: Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion – CCA, Living
BEST FILM EDITING
Top Gun: Maverick – CCA
Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA
Elvis – CCA
Babylon – CCA
The Fabelmans
Could Jump In: Avatar 2 – CCA, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar – CCA
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Whale – CCA
Elvis – CCA
Babylon – CCA
The Batman – CCA
All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Jump In: Black Panther 2 – CCA, Blonde, Crimes of the Future
BEST SOUND
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar 2
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Jump In: Babylon, The Batman, Black Panther 2
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar 2 – CCA
Top Gun: Maverick – CCA
Black Panther 2 – CCA
The Batman – CCA
Nope
Could Jump In: Doctor Strange 2, All Quiet on the Western Front, Jurassic World: Dominion
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Fabelmans – GG, CCA
Babylon – GG, CCA
Women Talking – GG, CCA
Pinocchio – GG, CCA
The Banshees of Inisherin – GG
Could Jump In: The Woman King, Black Panther 2, All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
RRR – CCA, GG
Pinocchio – CCA, GG
Black Panther 2 – CCA, GG
Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, GG
Where the Crawdads Sing – CCA, GG
Could Jump In: Till, Tell it Like a Woman, White Noise – CCA (My favorite by far!)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Decision to Leave – CCA, GG
All Quiet on the Western Front – GG
Close – CCA, GG
Argentina, 1985 – CCA, GG
Saint Omer
Could Jump In: Bardo – CCA, EO, Return to Seoul, Holy Spider, Corsage
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
All That Breathes
Navalny
Descendant
Could Jump In: The Territory, Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe, The Janes
