Awards Insights

Category: Oscar

  • 2023 Oscars: Late May Predictions

    2023 Oscars: Late May Predictions

    Cannes just finished up with Ruben Ostlund’s Triangle of Sadness shocking the world and taking the Palme D’Or. While I doubt this will have any effect on the Oscar race, I believe that at least one film that premiered at Cannes will make it into the Best Picture that is something international like Decision to Leave or a major studio film that premiered out of competition like Elvis. Elvis could go the Bohemian Rhapsody route in that it’s a popular yet not too critically-acclaimed music biopic with a lauded central performance I personally don’t think that Elvis will be the juggernaut Bohemian Rhapsody was, but the film should nab noms for Austin Butler and in some below-the-line categories.

    So what are this year’s frontrunners? The consensus picks seem to be Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, and Damien Chazelle’s Babylon. If these films are released this year they are essentially guaranteed Best Picture nominations in my mind. Of these films, Scorsese’s effort seems to me the most likely winner. It’s a drama centering on an FBI investigation of murders of members of the Osage tribe in the 1920s. It’s a Scorsese film so it’s almost guaranteed to be critically-acclaimed and it has the social relevance factor through its likely examination of themes such as racism and American expansionism. Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All at Once are, to me, the films I am most confident about rounding out the top five of the Best Picture race.

    (A little digression about Everything Everywhere All at Once which I’ve now seen twice in theaters:

    Coming into the film I heard many people comparing it to Marvel movies and to martial arts films, which piqued my interest since when has an A24 film ever been compared to anything made by Marvel? Still, the comparison that captured my mind the most was one where the film was said to be like “It’s a Wonderful Life”. It’s a connection that, on the surface, seems completely absurd. How can the first movie you think of when you see a colorful action film centering on a multiverse be a black-and-white drama from the 1940s? It’s a Wonderful Life is one of my absolute favorite films so I was excited to see this comparison come to life and, after watching it, it’s absolutely justified.

    On the most obvious level, both films use a sci-fi conceit to reveal universal truths about the importance of love: It’s a Wonderful Life with the idea of seeing what the world would be like if you’ve never existed and Everything Everywhere All at Once with the idea of seeing what your life would be like if you made different decisions through the medium of a multiverse. Both films illustrate the beauty of human connection in an immensely profound way. Both are incredibly life-affirming experiences that somehow reach their audiences in their cores and allow them to feel the importance of the seemingly mundane. They’re both films that love their audience and are incredibly humanist works that call for love and unity. But, most importantly of all to me, they’re both remarkably sincere films. Themes, messages, moments, and pieces of dialogue that would seem overly-saccharine, unearned, trite, or corny in other films don’t come off as such in these due to their utter honesty. You’d might think with the fantastical moments that both of these films have they wouldn’t reach their audiences as powerfully as they do, but I’d argue that they reach their audiences so profoundly due to those premises. I won’t elaborate further into that for obvious reasons, but the films’ premises are an instrumental aspect of what make them as powerful as they are. To me, no moment in these films come off as overwrought due to many elements especially the acting and storytelling. You feel for these characters and it’s obvious that the filmmakers love their characters as well, even with all their shortcomings and mistakes.)

    Netflix has a massive slate this year but none seem like sure things. The streamer has Noah Baumbach’s White Noise and Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, two civil rights biopics in Shirley and Rustin, and also David Fincher’s The Killer and Tobias Lindholm’s The Good Nurse. Seeing what they prioritize will be one of the biggest questions for the studio that still hasn’t won a Best Picture Oscar.

    Anyways, here are my predictions for May and my first predictions for the 2023 Oscars:

    BEST PICTURE

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+)

    Women Talking (MGM)

    The Fabelmans (Universal)

    Babylon (Paramount)

    White Noise (Netflix)

    She Said (Universal)

    Empire of Light (Searchlight)

    Thirteen Lives (MGM)

    Rustin (Netflix)

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

     

    Could Jump In:

    Amsterdam (20th Century)

    Bardo (N/A)

    Elvis (Warner Bros.)

    Maestro (Netflix)

    Poor Things (Searchlight)

    Shirley (Netflix)

    Decision to Leave (MUBI)

    Don’t Worry, Darling (Warner Bros.)

    Till (UA/MGM)

    Asteroid City (N/A)

    Armageddon Time (Focus)

    Avatar 2 (20th Century)

    Napoleon (Apple)

    The Son (Sony Classics)

    The Woman King (Sony)

    The Good Nurse (Netflix)

    The Killer (Netflix)

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)

    Nope (Universal)

    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM)

    The Greatest Beer Run Ever

    I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony)

    Tar (Focus)

    Disappointment Blvd. (A24)

    Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)

    The Lost King (N/A)

    Bones and All

    The Whale (A24)

    Longer Shots:

    Emancipation

    Broker (N/A)

    Holy Spider (N/A)

    RMN (N/A)

    Alcarras (MK2)

    The Wonder (Netflix)

    Crimes of the Future (Neon)

    Iao Capitano (01 Distribution)

    Monica (N/A)

    Rheingold (N/A)

    Showing Up (A24)

    The Way of the Wind (N/A)

    Tori and Lokita (N/A)

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

    Damien Chazelle – Babylon

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Could Jump In: Maria Schrader – She Said, Alejandro G. Inarittu – Bardo, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave, Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things, James Cameron – Avatar 2: The Way of Water, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Noah Baumbach – White Noise, Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives, Sam Mendes – Empire of Light, Ridley Scott – Napoleon

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Adam Driver – White Noise

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Michael Fassbender – The Killer

    Austin Butler – Elvis

    Could Jump In: Hugh Jackman – The Son, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon, Bill Nighy – Living, Diego Calva – Babylon, Colin Firth – Empire of Light, Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Joaquin Phoenix – Disappointment Blvd., Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody

    Carey Mulligan – She Said

    Margot Robbie – Babylon

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Olivia Colman – Empire of Light

    Could Jump In: Cate Blanchett – Tar, Regina King – Shirley, Viola Davis – The Woman King, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Emma Stone – Poor Things, Helen Mirren – Golda, Emma Thompson – Good Luck, Leo Grande, Michelle Williams – Showing Up, Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

    Brad Pitt – Babylon

    Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

    Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – Poor Things, Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon, Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things, Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Andre Holland – Shirley, Tom Hanks – Elvis, Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin, John David Washington – Amsterdam, Glynn Turman – Rustin, Don Cheadle – White Noise

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

    Jean Smart – Babylon

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Laura Dern – The Son

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

    Could Jump In: Vanessa Kirby – The Son, Patricia Clarkson – She Said, Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Samantha Morton – She Said, Frances McDormand – Women Talking, Hong Chau – The Whale, Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Greta Gerwig – White Noise, Audra McDonald – Rustin

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Fabelmans

    Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Empire of Light

    Babylon

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Bardo, Nope, Don’t Worry Darling, Amsterdam, Shirley, Armageddon Time, Maestro, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Menu

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    White Noise

    Women Talking

    She Said

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: The Son, The Whale, The Banshees of Inisherin

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Lightyear

    Turning Red

    Wendell and Wild

    Pinocchio

    The Bad Guys

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Poor Things

    Amsterdam

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2, Elvis, Don’t Worry, Darling, Maestro, Asteroid City

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Babylon

    Empire of Light

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: Maestro, Elvis, Amsterdam, Women Talking, Asteroid City

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Babylon

    Poor Things

    Amsterdam

    Don’t Worry, Darling

    Elvis

    Could Jump In: Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon, Blonde, The Lost King, The Fabelmans

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Babylon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    The Fabelmans

    Elvis

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Could Jump In: The Killer, Avatar 2, She Said, Women Talking, Bardo

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Maestro

    The Whale

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Poor Things

    Could Jump In: Blonde, The Fabelmans, The Northman, Persuasion, Killers of the Flower Moon

     

    BEST SOUND

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    The Batman

    Elvis

    Babylon

    Could Jump In: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Avatar II

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Thor: Love and Thunder

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Jurassic World: Dominion

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Fabelmans

    The Batman

    Babylon

    She Said

    Asteroid City

    Could Jump In: Empire of Light, Pinocchio, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Lost King, The Woman King, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Bardo

    Decision to Leave

    Close

    Triangle of Sadness

    Holy Spider

    Could Jump In: Broker, The Eight Mountains, RMN, Leila’s Brothers, Tori and Lokita

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions

    Well, it ends here. After my first set of predictions in May 2021 (where I correctly predicted six of the eventual Best Picture nominees and all of the Best Cinematography nominees!) the Oscars have finally come.

    So, without further ado…

    Here are my FINAL predictions:

    BEST PICTURE: The Power of the Dog

    Could Steal: CODA

    BEST DIRECTOR: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Will Smith – King Richard

    Could Steal: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    BEST ACTRESS: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Steal: Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Troy Kotsur – CODA

    Could Steal: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Could Steal: Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Belfast

    Could Steal: Licorice Pizza or Don’t Look Up

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: CODA

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Encanto

    Could Steal: The Mitchells vs. the Machines or Flee

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Dune

    Could Steal: Nightmare Alley

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Dune

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog or The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Cruella

    Could Steal: Dune or Nightmare Alley

    BEST FILM EDITING: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Steal: Dune, Cruella, or Coming 2 America

    BEST SOUND: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Dune

    Could Steal: The Power of the Dog

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: No Time to Die

    Could Steal: Encanto

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Drive My Car

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Summer of Soul

    Could Steal: Flee

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Robin Robin

    Could Steal: Bestia

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Long Goodbye

    Could Steal: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run or Please Hold

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Queen of Basketball

    Could Steal: Three Songs for Benazir or Audible

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    BEST PICTURE

    This is CODA vs. The Power of the Dog. The Oscar voting period is from March 17th to the 22nd and during that time, CODA undoubtedly surged, winning PGA on the 19th and WGA on the 20th. The timing of these awards are one of the central reasons most pundits have CODA winning Best Picture. However, CODA didn’t have significant backlash until it won these awards and The Power of the Dog won three awards (DGA, BAFTA, and CCA), the weekend before the voting period opened. 

    Additionally, every Best Picture winner in the preferential era has won at either PGA or WGA, which as previously-mentioned, are both awards CODA has won (though The Power of the Dog was ineligible for a nomination at the WGA). CODA’s eleventh-hour spike and the film’s broad likeability and accessibility are its advantages, though it being oft-compared to a Lifetime movie will likely hurt it in the eyes of an Academy that awarded critical favorites like Moonlight, Parasite, and Nomadland in only the last five years. 

    What does The Power of the Dog have going for it? It’s probably the most acclaimed of the nominees (other than Drive My Car) and has the stats and path of recent Best Picture winners. It has a DGA nomination, a BAFTA Best Film nod, and Film, Director, and Screenplay mentions from the Golden Globes, all accolades that every Best Picture winner in the preferential era has had and that CODA does not have (Campions film won DGA, BAFTA, and the Globe for Best Drama as well). It went to the fall festivals, unlike CODA (the film premiered at Sundance in early 2021 and was released to streaming in August), has an editing nomination (which every BP winner in the preferential era except for Birdman, which was made to look like it was shot in one take, won), unlike CODA, and is the nomination leader with 12 total, unlike CODA. The thing The Power of the Dog doesn’t have going or it is that it is perceived by some as a cold, artsy pick in contrast to the warm and accessible nature of CODA. It has a 6.9 IMDb score which would be the lowest, by far, of any winner in the preferential era (Nomadland and The Shape of Water were the previous lowests with 7.3s). CODA, in contrast, has an 8.0.

    When it comes to sociocultural relevance, which has been a significant factor in most Best Picture winners of the last six years, CODA, with its focus on a deaf family, seems to have the upper hand. However, The Power of the Dog with its examination of closeted homosexuality in the 1920s also has this “sociocultural importance” factor. Sam Elliott’s comments against The Power of the Dog likely helped the film as it emphasized that the toxic masculinity it identified is still alive and well today.

    In the end, I am going to go with The Power of the Dog as this Academy is the one that nominated Drive My Car in Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay and awarded Moonlight in 2017 and Nomadland last year. I doubt they award a film like CODA that feels even slighter than something like Green Book. But then again, this year does kind of remind me of the 2019 when the broadly entertaining Green Book beat the black-and-white Roma, but Green Book had a lot more important stats under its belt that CODA doesn’t have (Editing nod, BAFTA Best Film nod, DGA nod, Golden Globe Best Film, Director, and Screenplay nods, etc.). CODA could win, but I don’t think I’m ready to see all the stat-destruction that a CODA win would entail.

    Nominees:

    The Power of the Dog – GG (Drama), DGA, CCA, BAFTA

    CODA – SAG, PGA, WGA

    Belfast

    Dune

    West Side Story – GG (Comedy/Musical)

    King Richard

    Licorice Pizza

    Don’t Look Up

    Drive My Car

    Nightmare Alley

    Pick: The Power of the Dog

    BEST DIRECTOR

    C(h)ampion is taking this. There is really no question about it. Barring nothing extremely unexpected, she will become the third woman to win Best Director and the second consecutive after Chloe Zhao won last year for Nomadland.

    Nominees:

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car

    Pick: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    2021 – Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, WGA, CCA

    2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

    2019 – Green Book – GG

    2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

    2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

    2015 – Birdman – GG

    2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

    2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

    2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

    As much as I want Paul Thomas Anderson to win his first Oscar here and as much as I think there is a desire to reward him here, I think Belfast will just edge it out. The Academy often awards Picture nominees that they like yet don’t award anywhere else in the Screenplay categories. Unfortunately, that description applies to Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up. All of these films are very much driven by their screenplays so I believe the biggest Best Picture contender will prevail in the end and I think that means this award is between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. As exemplified by past winners in this category, Best Original Screenplays either have high-concept loglines (Promising Young Woman, Parasite, Get Out, Her, Django Unchained, and Midnight in Paris), are serious and melancholic realist dramas (Manchester by the Sea and Spotlight), or win Best Picture (Parasite, Green Book, Spotlight, and Birdman). Don’t Look Up fits the first category and Belfast somewhat fits the second, while Licorice Pizza doesn’t fit any. In the end, I’m going to go with Belfast since, in addition to it getting nominations in Picture, Director, and Screenplay like Licorice Pizza, it also has nominations in Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Sound, and Original Song, implying to me that it has more support than PTA’s film.

    Nominees:

    Belfast – GG, CCA

    Licorice Pizza – BAFTA

    Don’t Look Up – WGA

    The Worst Person in the World

    King Richard

    Pick: Belfast

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    CODA obviously has so much love right now with the PGA, WGA, and SAG wins it has accrued. Still, it has only been nominated for 3 Oscars and while I’m not sure if it has what it needs to earn Picture, I think people will vote for it in Adapted Screenplay. If CODA wins Best Picture it will undoubtedly take this as well (CODA can’t win Picture without a win here as well) but I think that the film taking this doesn’t necessarily mean that it will win Best Picture. Anyways, it fits the kind of populist-leaning fare (Jojo Rabbit, The Imitation Game) that have won here in the past. The Power of the Dog still has the ability to win here but it’s very unlikely that the film gets Adapted Screenplay and Director, and not Picture or all three.

    Nominees: 

    CODA – BAFTA, WGA

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    Drive My Car

    The Lost Daughter – USC

    Dune

    Pick: CODA

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    How I hate to predict these categories. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. One thing that seems to be constant is that these shorts should have the power to linger past the moment the credits roll. I think The Long Goodbye, like Skin and Two Distant Strangers before it, has that visceral quality and it doesn’t hurt that a big name is behind it (Riz Ahmed). Please Hold, Ala Kachuu – Take and Run, and The Dress also have chances to steal as well.

    Nominees:

    The Long Goodbye

    Ala Kachuu – Take and Run

    Please Hold

    The Dress

    On My Mind

    Pick: The Long Goodbye

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    In the last 10 years, the longest winner in this category was 15 minutes (The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lesmore in 2011) and this year’s frontrunner, Robin Robin, is 32 minutes long. However, I think Robin Robin should be able to win this since it’s family-friendly like most of the last decade’s 10 winners here. Still, Robin Robin’s length does decrease the film’s chances somewhat and Bestia, the most visceral of the films here, has a very good chance to steal and I would pick it if it wasn’t for the big names behind Robin Robin and the fact that I think voters often namecheck people they recognize without watching the films in categories like the shorts.

    Nominees:

    Robin Robin

    Bestia

    The Windshield Wiper

    Affairs of the Art

    BoxBallet

    Pick: Robin Robin

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Three Songs for Benazir fits the mold of many previous winners in this category (specifically Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone and The White Helmets) since it’s also a short film taking place in an Asian warzone. However, I think The Queen of Basketball, with Shaquille O’Neal and Stephen Curry behind it, will win. It’s the film with the most clout behind it and while that oftentimes doesn’t mean anything in these categories, the film also has the highest IMDb score of the three top nominees (Audible – 6.7, ‘Benazir’ – 6.2, and ‘Basketball’ – 7.1) which is more significant of an indicator.

    Nominees:

    The Queen of Basketball

    Three Songs for Benazir

    Audible

    When We Were Bullies

    Lead Me Home

    Pick: The Queen of Basketball

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    After watching The Power of the Dog, I was sure Benedict Cumberbatch was going to win this. I even thought that Will Smith could take GG, CCA, and SAG, but if Cumberbatch at least BAFTA he would win. Well, Will Smith has swept all the precursors and while Cumberbatch still has a chance to steal, it seems to be Smith’s moment.

    Nominees:

    Will Smith – King Richard – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

    Pick: Will Smith – King Richard 

    BEST ACTRESS

    Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart are all the leads of biopics and, as a result, will likely split votes. Among the three, Chastain seems to have the edge since she didn’t have the uncanny-valley makeup of Kidman or the inaccessible-to-some film that Stewart had. As a result of this vote-splitting, Penelope Cruz and/or Olivia Colman could benefit. Cruz seems to have the most passion behind her performance but I’m still unsure about whether enough people saw the film. I’m going to go with precursor leader Chastain though anyone, most likely Cruz or Stewart, can steal.

    Nominees:

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA, SAG

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    Pick: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    2021 – Daniel Kaluuya – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2020 – Brad Pitt – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2019 – Mahershala Ali – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2018 – Sam Rockwell – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2017 – Mahershala Ali – SAG, CCA

    2016 – Mark Rylance – BAFTA

     2015 – JK Simmons – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    Troy Kotsur has so much love right now and he has won three of the four major precursors in this category. Even if CODA doesn’t win Picture, Kotsur should take this though I don’t see CODA becoming our Picture winner without Kotsur first taking this.

    Nominees: 

    Troy Kotsur – CODA – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos

    Pick: Troy Kotsur – CODA

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Ariana DeBose has swept this category so this really should be a no-brainer. However, Kirsten Dunst is beloved by so many and there does seem to be a semblance of a campaign to have the overdue Dunst win on her first nomination. However, I am personally going to stick with DeBose, who’s win in a musical reminds me of when Jennifer Hudson won for Dreamgirls.

    Nominees:

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

    Pick: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

     

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    BEST SOUND

    There’s no way this is not going to Dune. Sci-fi/action Best Picture nominee that’s swept the precursors? Yeah, this is one of the strongest locks of the night.

    Nominees:

    Dune – MPSE, BAFTA, CAS

    West Side Story – MPSE

    No Time to Die

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    Pick: Dune

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    Billie Eilish is an industry darling and No Time to Die is by far the most popular song of the bunch (It has oer five times as many Spotify plays as the second-most played song Dos Oruguitas). Eilish should be able to win though the previously-mentioned Dos Oruguitas and Beyonce’s Be Alive also have chances. Encanto, especially, should not be ignored as a major contender since Lin-Manuel Miranda seems to be one of the most beloved people in the industry and a win here will make him a member of the prestigious EGOT club.

    Nominees:

    No Time to Die – “No Time to Die” – GG, CCA, SCL

    Encanto – “Dos Oruguitas”

    King Richard – “Be Alive”

    Belfast – “Down to Joy”

    Four Good Days – “Somehow You Do”

    Pick: No Time to Die

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Hans Zimmer has a pretty good narrative here. Dune is a passion project of his that he’s been dreaming of since he was young and he experimented extensively with instruments and sounds for the project. Encanto’s Germaine Franco has a chance here (though I think it has a better probability of taking Original Song), as does The Power of the Dog’s Jonny Greenwood.

    Nominees:

    Dune – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    The Power of the Dog

    Encanto – SCL

    Don’t Look Up

    Parallel Mothers

    Pick: Dune

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Because both BAFTA and CCA went with films (No Time to Die and West Side Story respectively) that are not nominees here, this category is really interesting. One stat I want to mention is that every Editing winner since Whiplash has won a Sound award as well, and the only nominees here that are also nominated for Sound are Dune and The Power of the Dog. If you look at the films that have recently been awarded in this category, they are usually centered around music, sports, war, and/or sci-fi action. Dune fits the last two boxes while The Power of the Dog doesn’t hit any. Therefore, Dune should take this.

    Nominees:

    Dune

    King Richard – ACE (Drama)

    The Power of the Dog

    tick, tick…BOOM! – ACE (Comedy)

    Don’t Look Up

    Pick: Dune

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    In the last 20 years, only four winners have won this category without a nomination in Best Director (funnily enough, Villeneuve’s previous film Blade Runner 2049 won Best Cinematography although Villeneuve missed Director).

    2021 – Mank – ASC

    2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

    2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2014 – Gravity – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2013 – Life of Pi – BAFTA, CCA

    Based on past winners, the Academy seems to like very flashy cinematography in this category. For this category, BAFTA and ASC are the most important precursors and Dune’s BAFTA-ASC combination should help it to victory. The last time a film with that combination with that combination lost the Oscar was Children of Men in 2007. The Power of the Dog and ‘Macbeth’ can steal, but this seems like Dune’s to lose.

    Nominees:

    Dune – BAFTA, ASC

    The Power of the Dog – CCA

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Nightmare Alley

    West Side Story

    Pick: Dune

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Cruella is the overwhelming favorite but two things give me pause. Firstly, every winner in the last 25 years has been set primarily in the 1950s or earlier or was a sci-fi/fantasy film. Secondly, in the last 30 years, only five films have won this award without a Production Design nod as well. Cruella is set in the 1970s. It has the flashiest costumes of the bunch and that alone should push it to the win but don’t be surprised if something like Dune or Nightmare Alley (which both have production design nominations unlike Cruella) steal.

    Nominees: 

    Cruella – CCA, BAFTA, CDG (Period)

    Dune – CDG (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)

    Nightmare Alley

    Cyrano

    West Side Story

    Pick: Cruella

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Since Inside Out in 2015, every winner in this category has won at both CCA and PGA. This year, those two awards have split with CCA going to The Mitchells vs. the Machines and PGA going to Encanto. This is not a category where the Academy makes especially unique or groundbreaking picks (How are Howl’s Moving Castle, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, and Klaus not winners?). They usually go with Pixar films with Disney films like Zootopia, Big Hero 6, and Frozen recently making the cut. Disney’s Encanto is by far the biggest film of the nominees and has enough love and passion throughout the Academy for me to be confident with picking it here (even though Flee or ‘Mitchells’ would be personally preferred).

    Nominees:

    Encanto – GG, BAFTA, PGA

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Annie, CCA

    Flee – Annie (Indie)

    Luca

    Raya and the Last Dragon

    Pick: Encanto

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    This one seems pretty obvious. The Worst Person in the World and Flee both received nominations in other categories, illustrating the support they both have, however, Drive My Car received nominations in Best Picture and Best Director and should easily win this.

    Nominees:

    Drive My Car – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    The Worst Person in the World

    Flee

    The Hand of God

    Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

    Pick: Drive My Car

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    No winner in this category in the past seven years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and the only nominee that fits that criterion is Summer of Soul. And I’m not even mentioning the fact that Questlove’s film has won at CCA, BAFTA, PGA, and ACE. It’s by far the leader in the precursors, has wide industry support, and is undoubtedly one of the most acclaimed films of the year.

    Nominees: 

    Summer of Soul – CCA, PGA, ACE, BAFTA

    Flee

    Attica – DGA

    Ascension

    Writing With Fire

    Pick: Summer of Soul

  • Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The last 10 winners in this category (Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in categories other than Visual Effects in addition to their Visual Effects nominations (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). Only Dune and No Time to Die can boast the same this year. The Academy also prefers CGI over practical effects in this category (with an exception to this trend being 1917), which benefits Dune. I personally believe this is one of the easiest to predict awards of the year since Dune has had this in the bag basically since it was announced.

    Nominees:

    Dune – BAFTA, VES (x4)

    Spider-Man: No Way Home – VES

    No Time to Die

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

    Free Guy

    Pick: Dune

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG

    2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

    2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    As you can see from this list of the last seven winners in this category, CCA and ADG are incredibly important precursors here. This year, Dune won BAFTA, CCA, and an ADG award so from a precursor perspective, it’s the obvious frontrunner. Nightmare Alley received an ADG win as well, but Dune has dominated the precursors in this category and the Academy has chosen enough sci-fi films here (Black Panther and Mad Max: Fury Road) for me to be confident about picking it.

    Nominees:

    Dune – BAFTA, CCA, SDSA, ADG

    Nightmare Alley – ADG

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The Power of the Dog

    Pick: Dune

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

    2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

    The last four winners in this category went to biopic films showcasing famous actors transforming physically into famous figures partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye fits this trend and even though the film didn’t win a MUAH, which is something the last seven winners won, it should still win. 6 of the 7 of these past winners went to films who were also nominated in above-the-line categories (Suicide Squad is the exception but none of its competitors were nominated in above-the-line categories either). This year, The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Dune are the only two nominees that have ATL nominations and since the former has precursor wins, it should win.

    Nominees:

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA

    Cruella – MUAH

    Coming 2 America – MUAH (x3)

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Pick: The Eyes of Tammy Faye