On Tuesday the Oscars broke their silence and followed the Golden Globes in allowing films debuting on streaming services to be considered for the year’s top prizes. They also announced that they would merge the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories together into one encompassing Best Sound category, which they previously had until 1982. With that news here are my Oscar predictions!
Mank, a film about the development behind Citizen Kane(!), seems to be the only movie that is without a doubt locked for an Oscar nomination. For all the other films you could make a case for why they wouldn’t be nominated.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 is pretty much locked, but it could be just not up to par as Aaron Sorkin has had some misfires in the past.
West Side Story could be seen as an old story told much too many times and therefore could be seen as irrelevant to the current moment. But, because In the Heights was moved to 2021, there will not be any other big musical about a diverse community this year.
News of the World does not have any big names other than Tom Hanks and because of its genre, it’s a Western, it will not be nominated unless it’s outstanding on multiple levels.
Da 5 Bloods is the latest Spike Lee joint and while Spike’s films are usually hit-and-miss with the Academy, he has gained momentum from his win in 2019 for BlackKklansman and if his movie turns out good, Da 5 Bloods will be nominated.
Nomadland his Chloe Zhao’s follow-up from her 2017 critical darling, The Rider. Zhao is directing Marvel’s Eternals, which was moved from November to February 12th of next year. So she has momentum on her side and if her film, starring Frances McDormand playing a woman who lives as a modern-day nomad after she loses everything in the Great Recession, is exceptionally good, it should transcend its indie status and be nominated.
Ammonite is also from a director who is coming off a critically-acclaimed 2017 film. Francis Lee, the director of God’s Own Country, is returning with a period piece starring Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan. Anything with Saoirse Ronan has to be considered a player and with Kate Winslet adding to the pedigree, this should be the period piece that makes into the field.
Hillbilly Elegy stars Amy Adams and Glenn Close in the story of a middle-class, Appalachian family. Ron Howard directed it, and while he can be a little iffy in terms of whether his films get nominations, the acting chops of Adams and Close should bring this movie an Oscar nod.
Stillwater’s genre (it’s a dramatic thriller) necessitates that the movie has to be amazing to be nominated. Only the thrillers that have significant dramatic heft (like Three Billboard Outside of Ebbing, Missouri, Captain Phillips, and Parasite) can get a Best Picture nomination. However, that seems likely as the film’s director has already won an Oscar for Best Picture winner Spotlight.
Because of all the post-production work that has to be done on Dune, it might not be finished in time for a release this year, but it probably will be and if Denis Villenueve is his usual self the film should be great. However, as a genre film it has to be beloved by critics and audiences to warrant a nomination. Still, there is usually one sci-fi film nominated every year (see: Black Panther, The Shape of Water, or Arrival) and Dune will be that movie, unless Tenet is absolutely amazing which it could very well be.
BEST PICTURE
Mank (Netflix)
Trial of the Chicago 7 (Paramount)
West Side Story (20th Century)
News of the World (Universal)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Nomadland (Searchlight)
Ammonite (Neon)
Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Stillwater (Focus)
Dune (If it is released, Tenet if it’s not) (Warner Bros.)
Could Jump In: Tenet (Warner Bros.), On the Rocks (A24/Apple+), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), Soul (Disney/Pixar), C’mon C’mon (A24), Minari (A24), Blonde (Netflix), Annette (Amazon), French Exit (Sony Classics), The Father (Sony Classics), The Midnight Sky (Netflix), I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix), Respect (MGM), Greyhound (Sony)
It’s crazy to think that the director of modern classics such as The Social Network, Fight Club, and Se7en hasn’t won an Oscar. Well, David Fincher is going back to the genre that almost got him his Oscar win (He almost won for The Social Network) with Mank, a film that chronicles Herman J. Mankiewicz’s development of the script for Citizen Kane. I don’t see anybody else winning this unless their film turns out to be an out-and-out Best Picture frontrunner. Lee, Sorkin, and Nolan all could easily jump into a nomination as well and if either of their films become frontrunners they will be frontrunners in this race as well.
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher – Mank
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Paul Greengrass – News of the World
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
Denis Villenueve – Dune (if released this year, Spike Lee otherwise)
Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Leos Carax – Annette, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch
While I don’t think Gary Oldman will win Best Actor for Mank (because he won 3 years ago, but maybe he will pull a Mahershala Ali and win twice in a short timespan), I am pretty much sure he will earn a nomination. On the other hand, Bill Murray, if nominated, could win. It’s one of those situations where he will either not be nominated or will be a frontrunner. Tom Hanks seems like a safe choice but he has been snubbed too many times in the past (Captain Phillips and Saving Mr. Banks) to not be skeptical about his placement. Joaquin Phoenix always gives great performances and coming off his win last season he should ride that momentum to a nomination. Mike Mills, the director of C’mon C’mon, has had success with directing actors to Oscar success in the past (Christopher Plummer won Best Supporting Actor for Mills’ Beginners) so Phoenix should get a nomination.
Anthony Hopkins last won an Oscar in 1992 and the reviews he got out of Sundance for The Father were extraordinary. The film has been compared to Michael Haneke’s Amour, who’s Emmanuelle Riva was nominated for Best Actress at 85 years old and was the oldest to do so. Hopkins will be the oldest Best Actor nominee if nominated as he will be 83. However, Sundance films do not usually make big splashes in the Oscar race and Hopkins’ performance could be forgotten unless Sony Pictures Classics pushes him properly. Then we could see Hopkins up on the stage again.
Matt Damon and Adam Driver also have significant chances of making it in to the Oscar race. Matt Damon if Stillwater becomes a major player and Adam Driver because he’s Adam Driver.
BEST ACTOR
Gary Oldman – Mank
Bill Murray – On the Rocks
Tom Hanks – News of the World
Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Could Jump In: Matt Damon – Stillwater, Adam Driver – Annette, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Ansel Elgort – West Side Story, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Daniel Kaluuya – Untitled Fred Hampton Project, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky
This category was especially difficult to predict because only Kate Winslet, I think, is essentially locked for a nomination. She is in a period piece playing off Saoirse Ronan, so she should deliver a great performance. Frances McDormand is also pretty much locked, but there is a chance that she might just miss the cut come nominations morning.
The rest have cases against them being nominated. Michelle Pfeiffer has not been nominated for an Oscar since 1993 so she has the “overdue” and “comeback” narratives behind her. However, the movie she is starring in might be too strange for the Academy’s taste (It has a talking cat in it) and Pfeiffer and her film could be ignored.
Ana de Armas is playing Marilyn Monroe and while at first glance she seems like she could easily win for that role, the film’s director Andrew Dominik is making Blonde more experimentally and it might be too strange for the Academy’s taste.
Jennifer Hudson is playing Aretha Franklin in Respect and if the movie turns out really good she will be a major, major player in the race. However, as this is director Liesl Tommy’s first film there are a lot of question marks about whether or not she can pull off an Oscar-worthy film on her first try.
Amy Adams, Viola Davis, and Rachel Zegler have a high likelihood of getting nominations as well and they should absolutely not be counted out in this race.
BEST ACTRESS
Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Kate Winslet – Ammonite
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Could Jump In: Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Mila Kunis – Four Good Days, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Tom Burke is playing Orson Welles in Mank and if he does a great job I don’t see the Academy not giving him the Oscar. Still, he is not a widely-known actor and may not have as large of a role in the film as we think he’ll have.
David Strathairn has been a known character actor for years now and he is overdue for a second nomination and Nomadland should give him that opportunity. Still, we are not sure how big of a part he has in the film.
Out of the 3 Spike Lee narrative films that have received an Oscar nomination all of them have been nominated for an acting Oscar. Based on this trend, Chadwick Boseman will likely get a nomination for Da 5 Bloods because he has the greatest name-recognition of anyone in the cast and because Spike Lee is great at directing performances.
I am still not sure if Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne is the lead in The Trial of the Chicago 7 so I am going to cheat and put them both here. Someone from this stacked cast (also includes Mark Rylance, Frank Langella, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Jeremy Strong) will be nominated in this category for sure, we just have to see the film (or even a trailer) to see who it will be.
Jesse Plemons in I’m Thinking of Ending Things is a slightly outside choice and he could be replaced by another actor from The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Mank, but I’m going to keep him here because every time Charlie Kaufman has been nominated for a Screenplay award (Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) one of the actors in the respective movie has been nominated.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Burke – Mank
David Strathairn – Nomadland
Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Could Jump In: Matthias Schoenaerts – The Last Planet, Lucas Hedges – French Exit, Charles Dance – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods, LaKeith Stainfield – Untitled Fred Hampton Project, Marlon Wayans – Respect, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Benecio del Toro – The French Dispatch
This will be a battle between Ronan and Close that will last until much later in the Oscar season. Close has more of an overdue narrative than Ronan does, but will this be Close’s win? If Hillbilly Elegy becomes a top-5 player in the Best Picture race, Close is definitely winning this, but if not, the 26-year old, 4-time nominee Ronan will put up a real fight.
On the Rocks could be a major player but even if it’s only a second-tier contender, Sofia Coppola’s film should give Rashida Jones her first Oscar nomination. Still, Coppola’s films haven’t been in the Academy’s good graces since Lost in Translation, so Jones’ nomination here still is a risk to predict.
Abigail Breslin has not received an Oscar nomination since she was 10 years old (Little Miss Sunshine), but if Stillwater is excellent, Breslin and her co-star Matt Damon should be strong contenders for nominations. But the movie has to be an Oscar nominee or right on the cusp for Breslin to get a nomination.
Someone from Mank will probably get in here and between Amanda Seyfried or Lily Collins, Seyfried has more name-recognition and therefore will probably have the larger role. Ariana DeBose of West Side Story could take Seyfried’s place here if West Side Story is a larger player.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Rashida Jones – On the Rocks
Abigail Breslin – Stillwater
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Gaby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari, Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Claire Foy – Louis Wain, Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins, Olivia Colman – The Father, Lily Collins – Mank
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mank
The Trial of the Chicago 7
On the Rocks
Da 5 Bloods
Soul
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Ammonite, C’mon C’mon, Stillwater, Tenet, Annette, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Minari, Untitled Fred Hampton Project, Promising Young Woman
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland
News of the World
Hillbilly Elegy
Greyhound
Dune
Could Jump In: Those Who Wish Me Dead, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, West Side Story, Next Goal Wins, Zola, Passing, Respect, The Prom, After Yang
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Soul
How Do You Live?
Onward
Over the Moon
Where is Anne Frank?
Could Jump In: Connected, Scoob!, The Croods 2, Wolfwalker, Trolls: World Tour
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank
Dune
The French Dispatch
Tenet
West Side Story
Could Jump In: News of the World, Mulan, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
Tenet
Hillbilly Elegy
Mank
West Side Story
Could Jump In: Nomadland, The French Dispatch, Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mank
Dune
The French Dispatch
Ammonite
West Side Story
Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Emma, Last Night in Soho, Coming 2 America, Blonde
BEST FILM EDITING
Dune
News of the World
Mank
Da 5 Bloods
Tenet
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Stillwater
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Mank
The Witches
Dune
Mulan
The French Dispatch
Could Jump In: Blonde, Wonder Woman 1984, The Trial of the Chicago 7, West Side Story, Ammonite
BEST SOUND
Tenet
Dune
Da 5 Bloods
Greyhound
West Side Story
Could Jump In: After Yang, No Time To Die, News of the World, Last Night in Soho
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Tenet
BIOS
Godzilla vs Kong
Wonder Woman 1984
Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Greyhound, Mulan, A Quiet Place Part 2, Venom 2
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dune
Mank
Annette
Soul
Tenet
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Da 5 Bloods, Ammonite, BIOS, The Witches
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
No Time to Die
Annette
Soul
The Prom
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
Could Jump In: Mulan, West Side Story, Respect
