AFI’s Top 10 Films of the year released earlier today and saw little in terms of surprises. The Color Purple missed again following its snub at NBR while Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction rebounded from its NBR miss with an inclusion here.
This AFI Awards marks the first year in a while without an AFI Special Award that is traditionally awarded to international films. This means no AFI love for Anatomy of a Fall or The Zone of Interest, both films that would have likely competed for that Special Award.
In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.
2023 – 8 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front)
2022 – 9 of 10 (Missed: Drive My Car)
2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)
(Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2022, 2020 and 2019, The Banshees of Inisherin, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)
Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.
All Quiet on The Western Front – Nominated at BAFTA (won as well)
Triangle of Sadness – Nominated at the Golden Globes
Drive My Car – none (won LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC trifecta though)
The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards
It seems likely that around 1 to 3 of the 10 films chosen by AFI will miss, and if three films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): May December, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and Maestro.
Martin Scorsese’s ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ won Best Film from the National Board of Review. Scorsese, lead actress Lily Gladstone, and cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto won in their categories respectively as well. This year’s other top Best Picture contenders, Oppenheimer and Poor Things were among the NBR’s Top 10 Films, the latter winning Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor as well. Usually, at least one of NBR’s four acting winners go on to win the Oscar in their respective category and this year both Gladstone and Da’Vine Joy Randolph of The Holdovers are both strong contenders to translate their NBR wins in to Oscar glory. The Holdovers also won both Best Actor for lead Paul Giamatti and Best Original Screenplay.
In terms of misses, Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction and Blitz Bazawule’s The Color Purple were both noticeable exclusions. These are both films that will likely be chosen as some of the AFI’s Top Films and if they don’t that could mean trouble for their Oscar chances.
NBR is our first semi-strong predictor of the Best Picture nominee slate, here is its track record in the past 10 years:
2012 — 7/9
2013 — 5/9
2014 — 4/8
2015 — 5/8
2016 — 7/9
2017 — 6/9 (The Shape of Water was not picked by the NBR)
2018 — 4/8
2019 — 6/9 (Parasite won Best Foreign Language Film)
2020 — 5/8
2021 – 7/10
2022 – 6/10 (All Quiet on the Western Front was nominated for Best International Film)
Also, in the last 10 years every eventual Best Picture winner except for The Shape of Water in 2017 and CODA in 2021 (though that was chosen as one of NBR’s Top 10 Independent Films) was a member of the NBR’s Top 10 Films, which makes it seem very likely that the eventual Best Picture winner from this year will one of the 10 films chosen by the NBR.
Here are the National Board of Review’s 2023 honorees:
Best Film: Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
NBR Icon Award: Bradley Cooper
Best Original Screenplay: David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Breakthrough Performance: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Best Directorial Debut: Celine Song, Past Lives
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best International Film: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Documentary: Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Best Ensemble: The Iron Claw
Outstanding Achievement in Stunt Artistry: Director Chad Stahelski and stunt coordinators Stephen Dunlevy & Scott Rogers, John Wick: Chapter 4
Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Rodrigo Prieto, Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon
Top Films (in alphabetical order): Barbie
The Boy and the Heron
Ferrari
The Holdovers
The Iron Claw
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Top 5 International Films (in alphabetical order): La Chimera
Fallen Leaves
The Teachers’ Lounge
Tótem
The Zone of Interest
Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order): 20 Days in Mariupol
32 Sounds
The Eternal Memory
The Pigeon Tunnel
A Still Small Voice
Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order): All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt
All of Us Strangers
BlackBerry
Earth Mama
Flora and Son
The Persian Version
Scrapper
Showing Up
Theater Camp
A Thousand and One
Based on NBR’s track record, we can assume that it’s pretty likely that at least 6 of the 1 films picked by NBR will go on to become Best Picture nominees. In my mind, this is the list of NBR’s top eleven films in order of their likelihood to get a BP nomination: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Barbie, The Holdovers, Past Lives, Maestro, The Iron Claw, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari. International Film winner Anatomy of a Fall and Top 5 International Film pick The Zone of Interest were both NBR inclusions and likely Best Picture nominees.
(Editor’s Note: A previous version of this article listed American Fiction as a competitor for Original Screenplay. This is incorrect as it is in the running for Adapted Screenplay since it’s based off the Percival Everett novel “Erasure”.)
Having now watched both Killers of the Flower Moon and Anatomy of a Fall, I’ve started to think about what films can actually win Best Picture this year. The problem with discussions of recent Best Picture winners is that people come to the table with a cynical point of view. They say things like the Academy only chooses films to appear “woke” and “progressive”. This ignores the fact that the films the Academy votes as the Best Picture of the year are films that are well-liked by most who see them. This line of thinking also treats the Academy like a monolith that works as a hive mind when it is an increasingly diverse group of industry professionals with widely different tastes and interests. The films that win Best Picture have to appeal to a broader audience than ever before, yet people seem to complain that the films the Academy picks have strayed far away from what the general population enjoys for the sake of “wokeness”. If the Academy has started to select more indie films it’s because in the age of the internet and streaming, films made outside the major studios now have a chance to gain the visibility needed to win Oscars. Something like Moonlight, which was made on a budget of just over a million and distributed by indie distributor A24 would not have received the kind of attention that it did prior to the 2010s. And that’s both a product of the rise of the internet and because of the Academy membership becoming more diverse and increasingly representative of their audiences. Now all of this is not to say that the Academy does not consider sociopolitical issues at all when selecting Best Picture. I think most Academy members choose films that they like and that they feel good liking to top their Best Picture ballots. Many of them want to feel like the choice they’re making is doing good and is representative of the image of Hollywood that they want to project. As a result, since Spotlight won in 2016, every subsequent Best Picture winner has had some sort of sociopolitically relevant message or context. With these requirements in mind, there are six films that I think could realistically win Best Picture (ranked in order of likelihood).
POOR THINGS
‘Poor Things’ (Searchlight)
In many ways, this film reminds me of 2018’s Best Picture winner The Shape of Water. It’s distributed and produced by awards titan Searchlight Pictures. It’s gained notoriety for its out-of-the-box sexuality. It won the Golden Lion at Venice. And they both are female-driven films from directors who started their careers outside of Hollywood that blend sci-fi and fantasy to create character-driven dramas. Unlike The Shape of Water, however, this film is even more critically-acclaimed (94 Metascore) and is also much more surreal and humorous. Those latter two qualities shouldn’t be too much of a problem considering this is the Academy that awarded Everything Everywhere All at Once with seven Oscars just last year. This film, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Oppenheimer are definitely going to be the biggest below the line players of the race. I see all three ruling the season as top five contenders along with two of the fivesome of The Holdovers, American Fiction, Barbie, Anatomy of a Fall, and The Zone of Interest.
This is a film that at its core is about a woman finding what she loves about herself. It’s the feminist vision of female self-love that Barbie tried to be. I think there’s a path for this to win Best Picture, especially since unlike Yorgos’ usual fare, this film is much more optimistic. Both audiences and critics are big fans of the film (it’s currently sitting at a 94 on Metacritic and a 8.5 on IMDb) and in this era where films like The Shape of Water and EEAAO are Best Picture winners, I doubt this is something the Academy at large will turn their noses up at (even though, yes, this is definitely more subversive than both those films). I can easily see this film winning Adapted Screenplay and possibly Director. If this wins Best Picture expect a win for Emma Stone in Best Actress as well. Techs like Production Design (it’s got this in the bag), Cinematography, and Costume Design are high possibilities as well. Yes, this film is weirder than the Academy’s usual tastes and it will alienate some but I think it has both a strong narrative and a lot of love from a diverse group of people, the two things a film needs to win Best Picture. Man, would I love to live in a world where the guy who made Dogtooth directed a film that won Best Picture!
AMERICAN FICTION
‘American Fiction’ (AmazonMGM)
Featuring a tour de force from Jeffrey Wright, a trenchant screenplay from Cord Jefferson and a stacked cast that includes Sterling K. Brown, Issa Rae, and Tracee Ellis Ross, this satire on the depiction of race in the media world is something that I can easily see winning Adapted Screenplay and then Best Picture if it gains enough traction. The question is will it? This is a film that I could see being limited to Adapted Screenplay (though Poor Things will be stiff competition). But it has racked up multiple film festival audience awards already, including the prestigious TIFF audience award which has launched multiple past Best Picture winners including Nomadland, Green Book, and 12 Years a Slave. It’s a satire on media exploitation that people seem to absolutely love. It’s something that can become very big if there’s a big enough push behind it. I could see it gaining love from groups like the Golden Globes, WGA, PGA, and maybe SAG. Expect BAFTA to basically ignore this one. It has relevance, it has a beloved cast, and it’s very fresh. Picture is a possibility but there’s also a chance that this is a film that dredges up a paltry 3 nominations come nominations morning.
OPPENHEIMER
‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)
On websites like IMDb, Oppenheimer is undoubtedly going to go down as probably the most beloved movie of the year. The movie is going to be a top five contender and a major player in multiple categories. It’s a three-hour rated-R auteur film about a nuclear physicist that managed to make over a million dollars at the worldwide box office. The problem is where is the narrative? In previous decades, Oppenheimer being by far the most successful adult-oriented film of the year would almost guarantee it Best Picture, but this is not the 90s or early 2000s. The lack of Japanese perspectives in the film will haunt it throughout the season and I think will keep it from winning. This film honestly reminds me of films like Gladiator, Braveheart, Schindler’s List, and Forrest Gump. All of these films were adult-oriented “serious” films that were also certifiable blockbusters in their years of release. Oppenheimer is definitely better than all of them except for Schindler’s List but unlike them it will (most likely) not end up being this year’s Best Picture winner. Still, the Nolan film is sure to go down as a modern classic and not winning Best Picture will not keep that from happening. Best Actor and Director wins for Cillian Murphy and Christopher Nolan respectively are still definitely in the cards, but don’t expect this to triumph come Oscar night. It just lacks a narrative that I believe the Academy of today will get behind in large numbers. Unlike all of the Best Picture winners since Spotlight, it’s not a film that Academy members will be excited about voting for. It’s the kind of favorite that would’ve rolled through the season unopposed in previous years but without the socially conscious bent, people will not be passionately rooting for it as much as they otherwise would and I predict it will lose steam before the finish line.
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ (Apple TV+)
Killers of the Flower Moon is Martin Scorsese’s most explicitly socially conscious film. With this movie, the legendary filmmaker interlaces themes of corruption, greed, trust, and American colonialism together to create what may be his best film since The Departed. The performances from Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone, and Robert De Niro are phenomenal, the latter two may even win in their respective categories. With an 89 Metascore and an 8.2 score on IMDb, the film is clearly very well-liked by both critics and audiences. This is a film that will do well both above-the-line and below-the-line. Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, and even Costume Design, Sound, and Score are all possibilities. While I don’t see this winning Screenplay, it can easily win Director if it ends up being a top 2 or 3 Picture contender.
The Israel-Palestine conflict is looming large throughout the world and that includes Hollywood. The SAG-WGA strike is as well and as a result, the Academy voting body come January may be a Hollywood that’s looking for media that communicates the desire for uprising against authority. Of the films in contention this year, Killers of the Flower Moon is the only one that explicitly deals with colonialism. While the American colonialism of Native Americans in no way perfectly parallels Israeli colonialism of Palestine, situations and discussions in the film sometimes reminded me of details of the Israel-Palestine historical context. With this film, Scorsese makes an explicit plea for the horrors of American colonialism to be brought to light. He makes an argument for the value of uncovering histories of race-based atrocities and making the world aware of them as such, and not as “entertaining true crime stories”. While I think the Scorsese style does muddle his ultimate message to an extent, the film is more politically effective than any narrative film he has made in his career so far. It’s unquestionably one of the best films of the year and I think that even if it doesn’t win Best Picture, it has a strong case for other above-the-line wins, especially Best Actress. Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone will likely be battling out this category until the end.
However, even though this film was made with the blessing and collaboration of the Osage Nation, it will inevitably receive criticism for centering a story that deals so deeply with the Osage people through the eyes and perspectives of white characters. For the majority of the film, Native American characters are seen through the eyes of white characters and while Scorsese does take care to humanize his Native American characters, they still are not given the perspective in a film that centers around their world. While this will be talked about as Oscar season goes on, it will not hurt the film too much if it’s strong enough of a contender (see: The Green Book controversy).
THE HOLDOVERS
‘The Holdovers’ (Focus)
This is the kind of film that would be a massive contender in the 80s and 90s. And while we obviously aren’t in those eras anymore, winners like Green Book and CODA show that the Academy is still liable to choose accessible family-friendly dramedies as their choice for the best film of the year. The Holdovers is probably better than both, but if Alexander Payne has never been in the top 3 Picture contender conversation before with films like Sideways, Nebraska, and The Descendants, what says he will now? That’s fair but none of those films were as socially conscious in the way that the Academy leans towards. The Holdovers, however, is. Still, I can very much see this being a film that gets limited to nominations in Picture, Original Screenplay, and one or two acting categories. I think Da’Vine Joy Randolph has a great chance in Supporting Actress, which is one of the reasons I think many in the Academy will choose to go with something like American Fiction in Original Screenplay.
BARBIE
‘Barbie’ (Warner Bros.)
Honestly, I really am confused about what I think Barbie’s Oscar prospects will be. The film was clearly a phenomenon and will be nominated for Best Picture, but could it win? Maybe the hype that remains around the movie is deluding me into thinking it has a chance but the film is also the 11th highest grossing film in the US all-time and presents a vision of a feminist utopia that has spawned thinkpiece after thinkpiece. Honestly, I think the route of highest likelihood for this movie is that it will end up something like the similarly commercially-successful and utopian Black Panther. Greta Gerwig’s film will probably win Original Song and Costume Design and will be nominated in a handful of other categories as well including Best Picture (Black Panther won Score as well, but Barbie most likely won’t be nominated for that). Though unlike Black Panther, Barbie should receive more above-the-line nods, expect love in Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and possibly Director and Lead Actress. The more I think about it, the less I see it winning, but you never know.
With Telluride, Venice, and Toronto all done and dusted, we are officially deep in the midst of fall festival season. Even though it’s been just a few weeks since Venice started on August 30th, many of this year’s players have been screened and the reactions are already piling in. We can expect that at least half of the ten films that make up 2024’s Best Picture slate will have played in at least one of these three festivals.
POOR THINGS
Searchlight has its contender. Yorgos Lanthimos has once again delivered a critically acclaimed period film featuring a wonderful performance from Emma Stone and I smell a top 6 Best Picture contender in the making. Currently killing it with a Metascore of 94 on 22 reviews, Poor Things will most likely continue Searchlight’s track record of reliably delivering Best Picture nominees on an annual basis. Raunchy, witty, and visually breathtaking, expect nominations for the film in Picture, Stone in Actress, Tony McNamara in screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hair, Costume Design, Production Design, and maybe Editing, Supporting Actor for Mark Ruffalo and Directing as well. With the Golden Lion now on the film’s mantle, Lanthimos’ film looks to follow the trajectory of The Shape of Water, Roma, Joker, and Nomadland, Golden Lion winners that translated Venice wins into Oscar success.
MAESTRO
Cementing itself as Netflix’s biggest contender of the year, Maestro has received very positive reviews (80 on 21 reviews over at Metacritic) so far and should be secured for a spot in the Picture race. And while Bradley Cooper has been praised, Carey Mulligan has been earning raves for her work as Felicia Bernstein. Both will likely be nominated and outside of Picture expect to see in this film in categories like Sound, possibly Editing, possibly Cinematography, and possibly Makeup and Hair. The controversy around the film surrounding the casting of the non-Jewish Cooper as the Jewish Leonard Bernstein will likely grow stronger as the season trudges on. As a result, I don’t see either actors winning Oscars for their work and the film will probably be restricted to five or fewer nominations.
ALL OF US STRANGERS
The biggest shock critical darling so far, ‘Weekend’ and ‘45 Years’ Director Andrew Haigh has come out with a film that currently has a 98 Metascore on 11 reviews. Touted as jaw-dropping, deeply poignant, delicate, and sensual, All of Us Strangers reminds me of last year’s Aftersun in some ways. Mostly in that they are both small-scale meditations on memory that feature Paul Mescal and are incredibly acclaimed and beloved. In terms of Oscar chances, I don’t see it making Best Picture unless Searchlight (they will focus all of their energy on Poor Things) pushes it in a major way but it should earn nods in Adapted Screenplay and possibly Actor and Supporting Actor nods for Andrew Scott and Paul Mescal respectively.
THE HOLDOVERS
The feel-good actors showcase, the Oscar bait of decades ago. Now, however, these films are no longer sure things when it comes to the Academy’s attention. Still, expect a strong campaign for Paul Giamatti in the starring role, Da’Vine Joy Randolph in Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and possibly Best Picture if it cements itself as a massive crowdpleaser. This is a film that could take the Green Book-route. It’s a feel-good, adult-oriented, middlebrow, “they don’t make ‘em like they used to” dramedy that clearly is well-liked by critics (it currently holds a Metascore of 83 on 19 reviews). This is a film that I can see winning a prize at Toronto and if it does, its Oscar nomination chances will skyrocket.
Update: Now that it has won a prize at Toronto, The Holdovers has pretty much all it needs for a Picture nomination. Expect to see the film receiving nods in Screenplay, Actor for Paul Giamatti and Supporting Actress for Da’Vine-Joy Randolph as well.
ANATOMY OF A FALL
This Palme D’Or winner’s hype started in May and hasn’t died down even after three months of new, buzzy films being released. Directed by Justine Triet, who I foresee will receive an Oscar nod if the film keeps up its current level of acclaim, and starring Sandra Huller, the film is a socially conscious mystery thriller and legal drama that will be a top six contender if its traction persists. This is definitely a film that I can see getting a second or third place award at TIFF.
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
The other bright star of Cannes, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is making the fall festival rounds and continues to rack up its fans and supporters. However, it’s also gaining its fair share of detractors who criticize the film for being too “cold”. While I think this will end this year as a critics’ favorite and an Oscar nominee, how successful the film will be will probably be limited by detractors like these.
RUSTIN
The raves for Colman Domingo’s performance as activist Bayard Rustin have been broad and overwhelming. Without the film being a top 12 Best Picture contender, I highly doubt Domingo wins Best Actor, but he seems poised for a nomination. The film, however, doesn’t seem like it’ll be unique or affecting enough for a Picture nomination, though we will see how people react to it once more eyes are on it.
NYAD
This and Next Goal Wins look to be this year’s Oscar season sport movies. Both Annette Bening and Jodie Foster give stellar performances and will likely be in the nomination conversation. However, I doubt the movie will have enough behind it to get all the way to a Best Picture nod. Although, if it does win something in Toronto, that will very much change.
FERRARI
Michael Mann is back in the movies. This time with a film centering on Enzo Ferrari’s life. While Adam Driver’s performance hasn’t been disliked, there doesn’t seem to be too much love for it. Penelope Cruz, playing Ferrari’s wife Laura Ferrari, has received raves. However, this year’s Supporting Actress race already has an acclaimed “long-suffering wife of the titular male philandering genius biopic character” performance in Emily Blunt as Kitty Oppenheimer. Even while significantly different, I doubt the Academy will nominate two of this variety of performance in the same category in the same year (especially with Carey Mulligan delivering something within the same prestige biopic trope in Maestro). I think Sound might be all the film musters in the end.
THE BIKERIDERS
Austin Butler, Jodie Comer, Michael Shannon, Mike Faist, Boyd Holbrook, and Tom Hardy round out the phenomenal cast that star in Jeff Nichols’ latest. While the film was well-received, its 74 Metascore indicates that it may not have the love that it would need to be a Picture contender. Comer is a possible upset pick for a nod in Supporting Actress but other than that category and Screenplay, don’t expect to see too much of The Bikeriders.
PRISCILLA
Caelin Spaeny won Venice’s prize for Best Actress and her Oscar chances instantly skyrocketed. However, Best Actress looks to be especially competitive this year with multiple wonderful performances competing for the top prize. And with Priscilla unlikely to be a Best Picture contender, Spaeny’s nomination looks unlikely.
THE BOY AND THE HERON
The newest film from one of the most legendary filmmakers in animation history, Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron received rave reaction from its TIFF opening night premiere and is a front runner for the people’s choice award.
Update: The Boy and the Heron did win third place for the People’s Choice Award and has definitely cemented itself as a film that will be impossible to ignore. This is supposed to be Miyazaki’s final film and it will be interesting to see how much of the positive regard the film has received becomes moreso a product of the regard for Miyazaki or for the film itself.
THE KILLER
The consensus on the film is that it’s lesser Fincher and that narrative, that it’s a relatively weaker attempt at Fincher doing what he does best, will likely keep it from more than a few Oscar nods if that. Fincher’s track record with acting nominations is very strong (every film he’s made since 2008’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has had at least one acting nod. However, like Zodiac, The Killer will probably get shutout in all categories.
SALTBURN
The reactions coming out of Emerald Fennell’s newest were frankly disappointing. While the film has received generally positive reviews, it did not seem to provoke the kind of strong reactions that something like Fennell’s most recent venture Promising Young Woman had in spades. Nods in the techs will probably be all this film will be limited to. With a cast like Barry Keoghan, Rosamund Pike, Jacob Elordi, and Carey Mulligan, the film clearly has some of the most in-demand stars behind it, but that probably won’t be enough to get any above-the-line nominations.
AMERICAN FICTION
A satire on race, modern media, and the literature world that skewers white people in a way contemporary white liberals seem to eat up, American Fiction played very well at TIFF and is also a frontrunner for the People’s Choice Award. With American Fiction, Cord Jefferson, TV writer extraordinaire, makes the jump to film and has seemed to have done so with flying colors.
Update: Now that American Fiction has won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, it immediately becomes a top five Best Picture contender. Expect a possible win in Screenplay, nominations in Actor for Jeffrey Wright, and possible nominations in Director, Editing, and other acting categories as well.
ORIGIN
A poignant, tear jerking piece on the American caste system from 13th and When They See Us Director Ava DuVernay. It’s a deeply ambitious film that seems to have its fans. Most of the acclaim seems to be reserved for Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor’s performance and DuVernay’s direction, but this is the type of timely film that could find success if campaigned correctly. However, I do not think it’s going to have the luxury of a major push with distributor Neon already having Anatomy of a Fall on its plate.
The Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award is one of the biggest indicators of Oscar success. Since 2012, every winner of the award has been nominated for Best Picture and at least three other awards. This year, Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction topped the festival slate and immediately cements itself as a top six Best Picture contender. MGM distributes the film and with no other major contenders to juggle, they should be able to put all their might into promoting and campaigning it.
According to Metacritic the film’s synopsis is as follows: “Monk (Jeffrey Wright) is a frustrated novelist who’s fed up with the establishment profiting from “Black” entertainment that relies on tired and offensive tropes. To prove his point, Monk uses a pen name to write an outlandish “Black” book of his own, a book that propels him to the heart of hypocrisy and the madness he claims to disdain.” Right now, the film has an 83 on Metacritic from 12 critic reviews. For the type of movie that it is, a socially conscious satire starring major Hollywood stars like Jeffrey Wright, Issa Rae, Tracee Ellie Ross, and Sterling K. Brown. With these highly-respected stars behind it, a major distributor that can throw its complete weight behind it, a mix of social consciousness and accessibility, and general critical acclaim, American Fiction, at this stage, looks like it has a reasonable chance to win Best Picture. An Adapted Screenplay nod is almost guaranteed, and Jeffrey Wright might be able to make it into the stacked Actor field as well. Sterling K. Brown is a longer shot, but as the season goes on his chances in Supporting Actor might increase substantially.
The Holdovers and The Boy and the Heron round out the rest of the TIFF People’s Choice Award honorees. Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers should be pretty much secure for a Best Picture nod. It’s a crowdpleasing dramedy that also has a 82 on Metacritic from 18 reviews. For a dramedy, the level of critical regard it has should be more than enough for it to be nominated. The Boy and the Heron won TIFF’s third place, and as animation legend Hayao Miyazaki’s last film, there’s definitely a narrative for the film to be awarded across the board. The film is said to be gentler, more contemplative, than most Ghibli fare. The film currently holds an 89 Metascore and is clearly loved by many. However, I think the love for the film is partly due to it being Miyazaki’s last and I’m not sure how much traction it will get outside of the Animated Feature category.
Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 10 years:
2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans (People’s Choice Award 1st Place), Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)
2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune
2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father
2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)
2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight
2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)
From this, it seems likely that three to five films that played at TIFF will make it into Best Picture. In order of likelihood, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, American Fiction, The Holdovers seem like the best bets. The Boy and the Heron and Rustin also have a chance as well.
With Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things winning the Golden Lion a couple days back, it has cemented itself as a top 6 Best Picture contender. High-profile films like Maestro and Ferrari were shutout, while films like Priscilla, Evil Does Not Exist, El Conde, and Memory all won major awards. Of these films, however, other than Poor Things, I think Maestro is the only film that will end up earning a Best Picture nod. It’s the type of major studio distributed film backed by big stars that does not need as much festival acclaim as indie films like Memory and Evil Does Not Exist do.
Poor Things should follow the trajectory of films like The Shape of Water, Roma, Joker, and Nomadland, all films that won the Golden Lion at Venice and ended up translating that into becoming top five Best Picture contenders in their respective years.
Here are the rest of the Venice winners.
Golden Lion Poor Things, Yorgos Lanthimos
Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize Evil Does Not Exist, Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Silver Lion Best Director Matteo Garrone, Io Capitano
Special Jury Prize Green Border, Agnieszka Holland
Best Screenplay Pablo Larrain and Guillermo Calderón, El Conde
Best Actress Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
Best Actor Peter Sarsgaard, Memory
Marcello Mastroianni Award for Best New Young Actor or Actress Seydou Sarr, Io Capitano
HORIZONS Best Film Explanation For Everything, Gábor Reisz
Best Director Mika Gustafson, Paradise Is Burning
Special Jury Prize Una Sterminata Domenica, Alain Parroni
Best Actress Margarita Rosa De Francisco, El Paraiso
Best Actor Tergel Bold-Erdene, City of Wind
Best Screenplay El Paraiso, Enrico Maria Artale
Best Short Film A Short Trip, Erenik Beqiri
Lion of the Future – Luigi De Laurentiis Award for a Debut Film Love Is A Gun, Lee Hong-Chi
HORIZONS EXTRA Audience Award FELICITÀ (HAPPINESS), Micaela Ramazzotti
VENICE CLASSICS
Best Documentary Thank You Very Much, Alex Braverman
Best Restored Film OHIKKOSHI (MOVING), Shinji Somai
VENICE IMMERSIVE
Grand Jury Prize Songs For A Passerby, Celine Daemen
Special Jury Prize Flow, Adriaan Lokman
Immersive Achievement Prize Emperor, Marion Burger, Ilan Cohen
2023 is poised to be a strange year for film festivals. With the SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes showing no signs of stopping, many of these films’ stars will be absent at the festivals. Both festivals will run as planned even without many of their films’ A-list talent showing up. Actors campaigning for their films has always had a large impact on their film’s Oscar chances and more significantly on their chances at acting awards. It will be interesting to see how that changes this year.
‘Maestro’ (Netflix)
VENICE
The lineup for this year’s Venice Film Festival was just announced. This is the first major festival lineup announcement of the Oscar season and it gives us our first introductory look at this year’s possible contenders. In six of the past seven years, a top two Picture contender has played at Venice and this trend shows no signs of stopping.
In my predictions from this month, I have two of the films that have shown up in the Venice lineup in the top 10: Bradley Cooper’s Maestro and Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things. However, Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla, Ava DuVernay’s Origin, Michael Mann’s Ferrari, Ryusuke Hamguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist, David Fincher’s The Killer, Michel Franco’s Memory, Pablo Larrain’s El Conde, and Matteo Garrone’s Io Capitano should also be watched. If any one of these ten films leave Venice highly-acclaimed and/or win one of their top prizes, their chances of being a Best Picture contender expand greatly. While I’m not confident that any of these films will become a top 2 Best Picture contender this season, I’m essentially guaranteeing that one of them will end up being a top 5 contender.
Anyways, here is the Venice slate:
Competition
Comandante, dir: Edoardo de Angelis (opening night film)
Adagio, dir: Stefano Sollima La Bête, dir: Bertrand Bonello DogMan, dir: Luc Besson El Conde, dir: Pablo Larrain Enea, dir: Pietro Castellitto Evil Does Not Exist, Ryusuke Hamaguchi Ferrari, dir: Michael Mann Finalmente L’Alba, dir: Saverio Costanzo The Green Border, dir: Agnieszka Holland Holly, dir: Fien Troch Hors-Saison, dir: Stéphane Brizé Io Capitano, dir: Matteo Garrone The Killer, dir: David Fincher Lubo, dir: Giorgio Diritti Maestro, dir: Bradley Cooper Memory, dir: Michel Franco Origin, dir: Ava DuVernay Poor Things, dir: Yorgos Lanthimos Priscilla, dir: Sofia Coppola The Promised Land, dir: Nikolaj Arcel Die Theorie Von Allem, dir: Timm Kroger Woman Of, dirs: Malgorzata Szumowska, Michal Englert
Out of Competition
Fiction
Aggro Dr1ft, dir: Harmony Korine The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial, dir: William Friedkin Coup de Chance, dir: Woody Allen Daaaaaal!, dir: Quentin Dupieux Hit Man, dir: Richard Linklater L’Ordine del Tempo, dir: Liliana Cavani The Palace, dir: Roman Polanski The Penitent, dir: Luca Barbareschi Snow Leopard, dir: Pema Tseden Vivants, dir: Alix Delaporte The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, dir: Wes Anderson (short)
Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 7 years:
2022 – In Competition: Tar (Best Actress winner), The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Actor and Best Screenplay winner)
2021 – In Competition: The Power of the Dog (Silver Lion winner); Out of Competition: Dune
2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)
2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story
2018 – In Competition: The Favourite (Grand Jury Prize and Best Actress winner), Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born
2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Best Screenplay winner)
2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land (Best Actress winner); Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge
Based on this, it would be reasonable to suspect that at least two fiction films from this year’s in competition and out of competition slates will make it in Best Picture. I don’t really see anything from the out of competition slate becoming a Picture contender but in terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Maestro, Poor Things, Origin, Priscilla, Ferrari, The Killer, and Evil Doesn’t Exist. If DuVernay’s Origin is highly-acclaimed, I can see that film being a possible Picture winner. The film tackles historical systemic racism in the United States and could very well be the kind of accessible socially-conscious cinematic lightning rod the Academy would want to support if it ends up being very good. If the film is near the quality and raw strength of previous Duvernay projects When They See Us and 13th, I think we might have our Best Picture winner.
Here is the rest of the Venice slate:
Short (Out of Competition)
Welcome to Paradise, dir: Leonardo Di Costanzo
Non-Fiction (Out of Competition)
Amor, dir: Virginia Eleuteri Serpieri Enzo Jannacci Vengo Anch’io, dir: Giorgio Verdelli Frente a Guernica (Version Integrale), dirs: Yervant Gianikian, Angela Ricci Lucchi Hollywoodgate, dir: Ibrahim Nash’at Menus Plaisirs – Les Troisgros, dir: Frederick Wiseman Ryuichi Sakamoto Opus, dir: Neo Sora
Series (Out of Competition)
D’Argent et de Sang (episodes 1-12), dirs: Xavier Giannoli, Frederic Planchon I Know Your Soul (episodes 1-2), dirs: Alen Drljevic, Nermin Hamzagic
Special Screening
La Parte del Leone: Una Storia della Mostra, dirs: Baptiste Etchegary, Guiseppe Bucchi
Horizons
En Attendant la Nuit, dir: Céline Rouzet Behind the Mountains, dir: Mohamed Ben Attia A Cielo Abierto, dirs: Mariana Arriaga, Santiago Arriaga City of Wind, dir: Lkhagvadulam Purev-Ochir Dormitory, dir: Nehir Tuna El Paraiso, dir: Enrico Maria Artale Explanation for Everything, dir: Gabor Reisz The Featherweight, dir: Robert Kolodny Gasoline Rainbow, dirs: Bill Ross, Turner Ross Heartless, dirs: Nara Normande, Tiao Hesitation Wound, dir: Selman Nacar Housekeeping for Beginners, dir: Goran Stolevski Invelle, dir: Simone Massi Paradise Is Burning, dir: Mika Gustafson The Red Suitcase, dir: Fidel Devkota Shadow of Fire, dir: Shinya Tsukamoto Una Sterminata Domenica, dir: Alain Perroni Tatami, dirs: Guy Nattiv, Zar Amir Ebrahimi
Horizons Extra
Bota Jone, dir: Luana Bajrami Day of the Fight, dir: Jack Huston Felicita, dir: Micaela Ramazzotti Forever Forever, dir: Anna Buryachkova L’Homme d’Argile, dir: Anais Tellenne In the Land of Saints and Sinners, dir: Robert Lorenz Pet Shop Boys, dir: Olmo Schnabel Stolen, dir: Karan Tejpal The Rescue, dir: Daniela Goggi
Venice Classics
Non-Fiction
Un Altra Italia Era Possibile, Il Cinema Di Guiseppe De Santis, dir: Stefano Della Casa Bill Douglas My Best Friend, dir: Jack Archer Dario Argento Panico, dir: Simone Scafidi Frank Capra: Mr America, dir: Matthew Wells Ken Jacobs From Orchard Street to the Museum of Modern Art, dir: Fred Riedel Le Film Pro-Nazi d’Hitchcock, dir: Daphne Baiwir Landrian, dir: Ernesto Daranas Serrano Michel Gondry Do It Yourself, dir: François Nemeta Thank You Very Much, dir: Alex Braverman
‘The Zone of Interest’ (A24)
TORONTO
In the last ten years, the eventual Best Picture winner has played at TIFF seven times. As a result, it has garnered a reputation as the most important festival in the Oscar race. Additionally, in the last 10 years, excluding the COVID year 2020, at least three films that screened at TIFF were nominated for Best Picture later that season. This year, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall, George C. Wolfe’s Rustin, Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins, Ellen Kuras’ Lee, Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers, Ladj Ly’s Les Indesirables, Alice Rohrwacher’s La Chimera, Hirokazu Koreeda’s Monster, Craig Gillespie’s Dumb Money, Christos Nikou’s Fingernails, Michel Franco’s Memory, Kristin Scott Thomas’ North Star, James Hawes’ One Life, Michael Winterbottom’s Shoshanna, Ethan Hawke’s Wildcat, and Atom Egoyan’s Seven Veils are some of the most high-profile films being shown.
Anyway, here is the Toronto slate:
Gala Presentations
Concrete Utopia, directed by Um Tae-Hwa
Dumb Money, directed by Craig Gillespie
Fair Play, directed by Chloe Domont
Flora and Son, directed by John Carney
Hate to Love: Nickelback, directed by Leigh Brooks
Lee, directed by Ellen Kuras
Next Goal Wins, directed by Taika Waititi
NYAD, directed by Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin
Punjab ’95, directed by Honey Trehan
Solo, directed by Sophie Dupuis
The End We Start From, directed by Mahalia Belo
The Movie Emperor, directed by Ning Hao
The New Boy, directed by Warwick Thornton
The Royal Hotel, directed by Kitty Green
Special Presentations
A Difficult Year, directed by Éric Toledano and Olivier Nakache
A Normal Family, directed by Hur Jin-ho
American Fiction, directed by Cord Jefferson
Anatomy of a Fall, directed by Justine Triet
Close to You, directed by Dominic Savage
Days of Happiness, directed by Chloé Robichaud
El Rapto, directed by Daniela Goggi
Ezra, directed by Tony Goldwyn
Fingernails, directed by Christos Nikou
Four Daughters, directed by Kaouther Ben Hania
His Three Daughters, directed by Azazel Jacobs
Hitman, directed by Richard Linklater
In Restless Dreams: The Music of Paul Simon, directed by Alex Gibney
Kidnapped, directed by Marco Bellocchio
Knox Goes Away, directed by Michael Keaton
La Chimera, directed by Alice Rohrwacher
Last Summer, directed by Catherine Breillat
Les Indésirables, directed by Ladj Ly
Memory, directed by Michel Franco
Monster, directed by Kore-eda Hirokazu
Mother Couch, directed by Niclas Larsson
North Star, directed by Kristin Scott Thomas
One Life, directed by James Hawes
Pain Hustlers, directed by David Yates
Poolman, directed by Chris Pine
Reptile, directed by Grant Singer
Rustin, directed by George C. Wolfe
Seven Veils, directed by Atom Egoyan
Shoshana, directed by Michael Winterbottom
Sing Sing, directed by Greg Kwedar
Smugglers, directed by Ryoo Seung-wan
Swan Song, directed by Chelsea McMullan
The Beast, directed by Bertrand Bonello
The Burial, directed by Maggie Betts
The Convert, directed by Lee Tamahori
The Critic, directed by Anand Tucker
The Dead Don’t Hurt, directed by Viggo Mortensen
The Holdovers, directed by Alexander Payne
The Peasants, directed by DK Welchman and Hugh Welchman
The Zone of Interest, directed by Jonathan Glazer
Together 99, directed by Lukas Moodysson
Unicorns, directed by Sally El Hosaini and James Krishna Floyd
Uproar, directed by Paul Middleditch and Hamish Bennett
Wicked Little Letters, directed by Thea Sharrock
Wildcat, directed by Ethan Hawke
Woman of the Hour, directed by Anna Kendrick
Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 10 years:
2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune
2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father
2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)
2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight
2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)
Based on this, I think it’s reasonable to expect that four to five of the films playing at TIFF will end up as Best Picture nominees. I’m not confident on whether this year’s Best Picture winner will play at TIFF, but history says that at least two of this year’s top five contenders will play at Toronto. In terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall, Rustin, Lee, Next Goal Wins, Les Indesirables, and The Holdovers.
The bomb goes off. Total silence immediately takes control. A blinding light fills the desert, Oppenheimer and the rest of his team watch in awe as the flaming mushroom cloud slowly consumes the sky. It’s an image of destructive beauty. Director Christopher Nolan cuts between scientists’ faces, and at first, we see only awe, maybe with a tinge of fear. But then we cut to Edward Teller, watching the explosion with his dark safety glasses on, as his lips turn into a slight smile. This shot of the bespectacled Teller reveling in the cataclysmic power that he was an instrumental part of creating is etched in my mind. Due in large part because it reminded me of Peter Sellers’ titular character in Stanley Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb. The glasses are definitely part of it, but the two characters also share this mad excitement at the might of nuclear power. In the Kubrick film, Dr. Strangelove is the American president’s scientific advisor, a former Nazi who betrays a certain excitement for the usage of nuclear weapons and particularly a doomsday nuclear device. Edward Teller himself is known as the “father of the hydrogen bomb” and received much support from the American government after the war for his plans to strengthen the American nuclear arsenal. He also was a major advocate of Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative, known colloquially as the Star Wars program, a proposed missile defense system that experimented with using lasers, satellites, and particle beam weapons to protect the United States. The similarities between Teller and Strangelove were quite noticeable but I still assumed that Nolan’s inclusion of that smiling shot was probably a coincidence. But then I discovered that Teller was an influence on the character of Strangelove in the 1964 film and now Teller’s wicked smile cannot leave my brain.
He looks so much like Dr. Strangelove. ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)
Oppenheimer is an incredibly well-made film. The technical aspects are phenomenal as is par for the course with pretty much every Nolan film. The practical visual effects from the team lead by Andrew Jackson, Scott R. Fisher, and Giacomo Mineo will most likely be Oscar-nominated. The spectacular cinematography and production design from Hoyte van Hoytema and Ruth de Jong, respectively will also very likely receive some Oscar love. But the technical aspect that astounded me the most about the film was Ludwig Goransson’s score. Like with Tenet, Goransson worked with Nolan as the composer on Oppenheimer as Nolan’s regular collaborator Hans Zimmer was busy working on Dune: Part Two (Zimmer wasn’t able to score Tenet due to being committed to Dune: Part One). Goransson’s ‘Tenet’ score was quite possibly the best thing about that film. It’s merger of electronic and classical instrumentation was alternatingly epic with an industrial sound and lush with its ambient soundscapes. Goransson’s work on Oppenheimer drops the industrial sound of his Tenet material but retains the epic feel, once again merging classical and ambient electronic instrumentation. Fluttering string arpeggios morph into pulsating synthesizers on the standout track “Can You Hear The Music” that plays near the start of the film. Like with Nolan’s best films (excluding Memento), the soundscapes that accompany them become integrally intertwined with the film’s content and do so much to drive the emotions of his work.
Cillian Murphy is incredible here. The film lives and dies on his performance and his portrayal of a deeply tortured, anxious man who is forced to present an image of control. He’s phenomenal and is absolutely deserving of all the attention he will likely receive in the coming months. When it comes to the supporting characters, Robert Downey Jr. is the undeniable standout as bureaucrat Lewis Strauss. He has some of the best scenes in the film, some shot in stunning black and white to indicate that it’s his perspective dictating what’s seen on screen (as opposed to the scenes in color which indicate that Oppenheimer’s perspective is being illustrated). A quick aside, the black and white moments in this film look gorgeous, the film becoming the first feature film to use black-and-white analog photography. Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, and Florence Pugh round out the main supporting cast. Unfortunately, Nolan’s problem with under developing female characters persists and while Blunt and Pugh both elevate the material they are given, their roles fall largely into common biopic tropes. Blunt is quite good as the long-suffering wife imploring her husband to fight back against the people attempting to ruin his reputation, and while she feels more “real” than Pugh’s character does, she is still woefully underwritten. Stars like Casey Affleck, Rami Malek, Kenneth Branagh, and Gary Oldman pop up for moments in this film, Affleck’s role as a menacing Commie-hating army officer being the most memorable of the four.
‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)
Breakneck from the get-go, this undoubtedly is a Nolan movie, with the director’s characteristically propulsive brand of cinema grabbing you by the neck and refusing to let go until the credits run. Like with most Nolan films, the pacing and grandiose nature of the visuals and sonics distract you from paying too close attention to the dialogue. But luckily, unlike Interstellar, no lines are distractingly heavy-handed enough to take you out of the film’s immersion. This is the most political film Nolan has ever made and it’s surprisingly nuanced, something I was unsure the director could do when it came to politics. The film offers many of the prevalent perspectives on the war and the use of the atom bomb, keeping its position on the ramifications of Oppenheimer’s actions ambiguous until the knockout ending. This is one of the most grandiose-feeling films released in quite some time. It feels absolutely massive, the score, the sound, the effects, the pacing, all coming together to create a truly immersive experience. And while it’s so massive, the film is really a character study about one man. The man who became the American Prometheus. Someone so powerful, so deeply destructive with the force he worked so hard to unleash. In portraying Oppenheimer’s guilt, Nolan plays with style to force you inside the man’s tumultuous mind. Scenes like Oppenheimer’s post-Hiroshima speech end up being some of the film’s most chilling as a result of these stylizations.
Truly colossal in a litany of ways, Oppenheimer is Nolan’s best film since Inception and will undoubtedly end up being one of the year’s best blockbusters. Exhilarating and smarter than expected Oppenheimer both succeeds and suffers off of Nolan’s ambition, but the good definitely outweighs the bad. With Oppenheimer, Nolan can confidently silence those who doubted he could return to making box office hits after Tenet underperformed both critically and commercially. Nolan is clearly back, and I expect to see Oppenheimer rack up nominations and maybe a couple of wins come Oscar season.
How did Mattel allow this? The same company that sued Aqua for the group’s iconic 90s hit “Barbie Girl” for “trademark infringement, unfair competition, and trademark dilution”, allowed their beloved IP to be validly criticized and make hilarious quips about “beaching each other off” and their lack of genitals. Clearly, they’re a lot more lenient now, especially since that very Aqua song found its way into the film as the main sample for Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice’s track “Barbie World”. But what’s even more surprising is how Mattel is portrayed in the film. From the trailers, we already had a look at Will Ferrell as the CEO of Mattel, a company headed by a board room of men in matching, well-tailored suits. While the film doesn’t portray them as the undeniably evil corporation they could have, they are not positive characters. When Barbie enters the real world, the corporation reacts by trying to put her “back in her box”. And yes, that is a loaded phrase and if you already haven’t guessed it, this film has a lot more on its mind than many viewers might have imagined.
The scathing reviews from men like Ben Shapiro and Ted Cruz might’ve clued you in, but Barbie is a film about feminism, female solidarity, and existential questions. And the film still managed to have me giggling in the theater throughout. While director Greta Gerwig’s control of the tone isn’t perfect, it doesn’t leave too much to be desired. Serious poignancy and one-liners often come back-to-back but it hardly ever feels muddied. This is quite an ambitious film. There is a large swathe of thematic and narrative ground covered and while certain things (the mother/daughter subplot, some monologues) might come off as either underwritten or heavy-handed, the film is still affecting and does not lose sight of its emotional core. And that core is Margot Robbie in the titular role. She delivers a knockout performance, simultaneously managing to be absolutely hilarious while also imbuing the character with more depth and nuance than I could’ve ever hoped for in a movie about Barbie. She’s the beating heart of this film and adds to her repertoire of being one of the most talented stars working in Hollywood today. Ryan Gosling is also phenomenal, any questions about whether he was a good choice to play Ken should be completely dispelled. Gosling steals nearly every scene he’s in and everything from his line delivery, to his sulky expressions, to his vocal performance on the track “I’m Just Ken” (a soundtrack highlight on an album featuring great songs from PinkPantheress, Charli XCX, Billie Eilish, and Dua Lipa) is just so so good. This is one of the funniest blockbuster comedies of the decade so far. Gerwig and co-writer Noah Baumbach (the writer-director of Marriage Story and The Squid and the Whale) deliver a script that is sometimes broad, sometimes incredibly specific (The Godfather and Stephen Malkmus jokes were too accurate, Gerwig clearly has had to deal with her fair share of film and music bros), and rollickingly hilarious throughout. But the humor doesn’t stop this film from touching on subject matter like female solidarity and feminism in a compelling and affecting way. While I expected these topics to be included, what surprised me most about the film’s more serious themes was how much it focused on existential questions about death and what it means to be human. Robbie portrays this beautifully, what was once proverbially plastic slowly becomes skin and bones, her journey into humanity is deeply captivating.
‘Barbie’ (Warner Bros.)
I would be deeply remiss if I didn’t mention the film’s phenomenal costume and production design. The candy-colored dreamland of Barbieland is breathtaking, both 6-time Oscar nominated production designer Sarah Greenwood and 2-time Oscar winning costume designer Jacqueline Durran should see Oscar nominations coming their way this year. Sets like the home of “Weird Barbie” and the journey from the Barbie world to the human world are so wonderfully imaginative and brilliantly realized. On the subject of the Oscars, I wouldn’t be surprised if Warner Bros. makes Barbie one of their biggest pushes. A critically acclaimed summer blockbuster with explicit social commentary, Barbie has what it needs to be nominated for the Academy’s biggest prize if Warner Bros. plays their cards right. They also have Dune: Part Two (Nov. 3) and The Color Purple musical adaptation (Dec. 25) on their slate this year so we will see how they end up balancing those three films in the heart of Oscar season.
I began this article with incredulity about how Mattel let this movie happen, but interestingly the company was in fact a close collaborator in every step of the production process (there’s a fascinating New Yorker piece about this that I recommend). And while I do give Mattel credit for allowing criticisms of Barbie and her “message” to be illustrated as valid throughout the film, the corporation’s influence is definitely felt. There are times where I was left wishing for more from the film, for it to go even further and with more complexity. The film was also a lot more straight than I was expecting, Barbieland is very heterosexual and it’s never explicitly addressed, this being another aspect that was likely a product of close corporate involvement. Obviously, a lot of this is a product of my expectations and is possibly unfair as a criticism of the film but these aspects of the film were clearly felt.
Barbie is so many things, absolutely hilarious, ridiculously entertaining, and undeniably flawed, but it unquestionably confirms Gerwig’s place as one of the most versatile and exciting young filmmakers in Hollywood today.
Many have likened A24’s latest to Richard Linklater’s “Before” Trilogy. And the similarities lie in their central conceits, both works follow two people meeting many years after forming a romantic bond. Aspects of Past Lives reminded me of ‘Before Sunset’ in its contemplation of meeting someone you haven’t really moved on from. Ethan Hawke once said that “the first film (Before Sunrise) is about what could be; the second (Before Sunset) is about what should’ve been. Before Midnight is about what is.” We watch as Past Lives’ Nora (Greta Lee) experiences all of these stages, just not in the way you might think.
Just like with the ‘Before’ trilogy, the film is a rumination on coincidence and the effects of our circumstances. The Korean concept of In-Yun is one that is weaved throughout the film. It refers to the growing connections formed between two people whose roads cross over multiple lifetimes. The more lifetimes shared, the stronger the connection between the two. The film is enamored with this concept and the question of destiny’s role in the little coincidences and connections that make up our daily lives. As characters mention throughout the film, spouses are believed to have met in over 8000 past lifetimes, forming that deep marital bond over millennia. The idea of In-Yun becomes even more poignant in the context of the film as Nora and Hae Sung (Teo Yoo) meet at multiple very different stages of their life, years separating each encounter.
Song’s film isn’t just a romantic story but a story about the immigrant experience and everything that comes with it, from interracial relationships to adapting to a new language. Na Young and Hae Sung grow up together in Seoul and are each other’s first major crush. Days before Na Young’s family plans to move to America, they go on their first date and clearly have strong feelings for one another. But Nora leaves for America and they lose contact. We see Na Young adopt her new American name Nora, learn English, and prepare to adapt to this foreign world. Later on in the film, we hear Nora talk about how she had no one she could cry to as a child in America. Her new world quickly taught her to hide her emotions and not let anyone know when she was feeling awful or confused. It’s a common first generation American immigrant experience to consciously hold back certain parts of yourself to assimilate more comfortably into the American world, and it’s an experience that Song illustrates with specificity and care.
This is a film that lives and dies on its screenplay. While there are fantastic visuals (the cityscapes, the park where young Nora and Hae Sung play, etc.), the movie is anchored by Celine Song’s empathetic, heartbreaking, and occasionally hilarious screenplay. But what struck me the most was what was left unsaid. There are moments throughout the film where Nora and Hae Sung just look at each other, their eyes telling each other more than what can be said with words. It’s in these moments where the two central performances really shine. Though one cannot leave out the wonderful John Magaro, who’s vulnerable, soul-baring turn was my favorite performance from the film. Some of Magaro’s best moments are pretty much wordless, his looks do enough to convey the mix of love, fear, insecurity, care, and discomfort he experiences. Unlike the ‘Before’ trilogy, Past Lives doesn’t really spend moments just lingering with its characters. While Linklater’s films were built on scenes of characters going on philosophical tangents for most of the runtime, we also spent more time really seeing the characters for who they were. It really feels like no moment is wasted. Granted, these are two quite different films and I am not finding fault with Past Lives for failing to be a ‘Before’ copycat but instead just trying to point out that I never really fall in love with Nora and Hae Sung they way I fell in love with Celine and Jesse because we as an audience don’t really get to sit with them and when we do it’s for brief moments. But like with the ‘Before’ trilogy, what they say to each other in these moments together isn’t as significant as their flickering glances, shared stares, and genuine smiles. These moments are what make the best romantic dramas and Past Lives is one of the best romance films of the decade so far, if not the best.
