BEST PICTURE
After the Golden Globes released their nods on Monday, these seven films are, in my eyes, all locked for Best Picture nominations.
Anora (NEON) – CCA, AFI, GG
The Brutalist (A24) – CCA, AFI, GG
Conclave (Focus) – CCA, AFI, GG
Emilia Perez (Netflix) – CCA, AFI, GG
Wicked (Universal) – CCA, AFI, GG
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) – CCA, AFI, GG
The Substance (MUBI) – CCA, GG
The last three slots are going to be between A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Real Pain. This could change, but right now A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys seem to be getting the most traction. I think A Complete Unknown with its 73 Metascore, 7.9 IMDb score, and standout (and possibly Oscar-winning) performance from Timothee Chalamet should be confidently nominated here and fit the trend of music biopic love in Best Picture. With that in mind, the last two slots are for Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Real Pain to fill. Sing Sing missed a Globes Picture nomination, and A Real Pain was left out by Critics Choice. In the end, none of these matter and what really matters is which of these films have strong enough passion behind it? I think Nickel Boys has palpable passion behind it. It has an 89 Metascore, has won multiple film of the year awards and seems to have passion right now. As a result, I think it should be able to secure a nomination. I think Sing Sing has momentum as well and is the kind of crowdpleaser that we often see nominated here. The thing is, I’m not sure if there is passion for A Real Pain outside of Kieran Culkin’s likely Oscar-winning turn. As a result, I am going with Sing Sing.
A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) – CCA, AFI, GG
Nickel Boys (AmazonMGM) – CCA, AFI, GG
Sing Sing (A24) – CCA, AFI
Could Jump In:
A Real Pain (Searchlight) – AFI, GG
Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Conclave, and The Substance all received the Picture, Director, Screenplay trifecta from the Golden Globes meaning that only one of these five films is winning Best Picture. In my eyes, that film is either Anora or The Brutalist, the former with five nods from the Globes and the latter with seven. The biggest surprise for me was the HFPA going all out for Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. The Substance received five nominations, solidifying the body horror film’s place as a very likely Best Picture nominee. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up a top-6 Picture contender (if it already isn’t)
To me this is between Corbet and Baker and I think it will be a close contest until the end. While I think the most likely scenario is Corbet getting Director, and Baker’s Anora taking Picture and Screenplay, anything can happen in the next three months until Oscar night. With Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance being definitively an auteur work and with The Substance profile rise in the last month, she also is locked here to me. The rest of the two slots are between Jacques Audiard, Edward Berger, Denis Villeneuve, and Ramell Ross. With the rise of Wicked, The Substance, and The Brutalist it seems that Dune: Part Two is no longer a top 5 Best Picture contender and I think that means that Villeneuve misses here just like he did with the first one. Audiard is the kind of Ruben Ostlund-lite filmmaker that the European branch will go for in a big way. I’m pretty confident that Conclave is this year’s third place film and with that I see Edward Berger getting in, especially since I would be very surprised if he misses at any of the precursors. RaMell Ross will probably overtake him if Nickel Boys becomes a top-six contender but right now I am not seeing that.
BEST DIRECTOR
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Sean Baker – Anora
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez
Edward Berger – Conclave
Could Jump In: RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys, Denis Villeneuve – Dune
To me, this is going to be between Adrien Brody and Timothee Chalamet. We will see what each win as the season goes in. Unlike two years ago where Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler were up for awards (with Fraser winning), Chalamet is a lot more well-known of a commodity in the industry and Brody has, unlike Fraser, already been nominated for an Oscar. I honestly think its a 60-40 right now between Brody and Chalamet. A Complete Unknown currently has a 7.9 on IMDb and if it stays 7.7 and above as the season goes on, I think Chalamet’s chances increase. Fiennes and Domingo are locked for nominations here and with that the fifth slot is between Daniel Craig and Jesse Eisenberg. Eisenberg’s nomination is contingent to me on the film being a major enough Picture contender. If it does rise up in its profile, Eisenberg will be getting nominated but if not, Daniel Craig should be able to make it in here and become Queer’s sole nomination.
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Daniel Craig – Queer
Could Jump In: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
This category is incredibly tight in my eyes and once SAG releases their nominations in just over a week things will (hopefully) get much clearer. Mikey Madison currently looks like the favorite here. She’s won most of the critics’ awards and is the star of a top-two Best Picture contender. This is her breakout moment, and I don’t think anything else has a narrative even close to the one she does. It’s hard to say which actresses are locked here, outside of Madison and Karla Sofia Gascon. Many thought Jolie was locked for Maria but she has not won a singular critics’ award and was also snubbed by the BAFTAs completely by not appearing on their best actress longlist. I honestly see a world where her and Kidman miss, and Jean-Baptiste enters the top five. I think after Gascon, Erivo is locked as well, and then after that the next two slots are really between Demi Moore, Jean-Baptiste, Jolie, and Kidman. The difficult thing here is that, excluding Jolie, all of these actresses seem to be generating a lot of positive buzz right now for their work in their respective films. The Oscars of ten years ago would probably nominate Jolie and Kidman, but how much has the Academy changed? I think they’ve changed enough to where Moore will be nominated here, and I think they will nominate Kidman as well. Kidman’s work is the kind of image deconstruction (Hollywood star plays business woman who enters a BDSM relationship with her subordinate) that I think the Academy will go for. But, like Paul Mescal got in for Aftersun a couple years back, the critics could very likely push Jean-Baptise to a nomination here.
BEST ACTRESS
Mikey Madison – Anora – CCA
Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez – CCA
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked – CCA
Demi Moore – The Substance – CCA
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl
Could Jump In: Marianne Jean Baptiste – Hard Truths – CCA, Angelina Jolie – Maria – CCA, Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
Even as his film looks less and less like it will be nominated in Picture, Culkin seems to be holding on to his frontrunner position in this category. Culkin and Guy Pearce seem locked to me, and it seems like the fivesome is going to be Culkin, Pearce, Denzel Washington, Yura Borisov, and Clarence Maclin. However, do not be surprised if Edward Norton sneaks in by unseating one of Washington, Borisov, or Maclin. I still think it is more likely that the five I listed is the eventual five.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain – CCA
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist – CCA
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II – CCA
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing – CCA
Yura Borisov – Anora – CCA
Could Jump In: Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown – CCA, Stanley Tucci – Conclave
I think Saldana, Grande, Jones, and Rosselini are locked here, but this category’s question is the last spot which is between three actresses, Danielle Deadwyler, Margaret Qualley, and Aunjanue Ellis. Having watched The Substance, I think Qualley’s performance in the film is something that appeals more to critics than to Academy voters. And as a result, I think this is between Deadwyler and Ellis. They both have critics’ awards wins (Deadwyler has 3 while Ellis has 1), but I think the more important factor will be the fact that Ellis is in a Best Picture nominee while Deadwyler has not.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez – CCA
Ariana Grande – Wicked – CCA
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rosselini – Conclave – CCA
Aunjanue Ellis – Nickel Boys – CCA
Could Jump In: Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson – CCA, Margaret Qualley – The Substance – CCA, Selena Gomez – Emilia Perez
The first four slots are locked here, which leaves four films to vie for the last slot. Hard Truths, September 5, All We Imagine as Light, and Challengers are these films and I could see any of them making it in here come nominations morning. i wouldn’t be surprised if Hard Truths or All We Imagine as Light ride in here on critic’ pushes. Hard Truths could ride the wave that its star Marianne Jean-Baptiste has been on for her work in the film and All We Imagine as Light could find itself the subject of a push from Academy members that want to reward the film but have nowhere else to nominate it especially since it wasn’t submitted by India for Best International Feature.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora – CCA
The Brutalist – CCA
The Substance – CCA
A Real Pain – CCA
Hard Truths
Could Jump In: All We Imagine as Light, Challengers – CCA, September 5 – CCA
I think Conclave is comfortably the 3rd place contender of this year’s Best Picture race and as a result, should be able to easily take a win in this category. Sing Sing and Nickel Boys should both be nominated here but the last two slots seem very up in the air to me. This category oftentimes rewards work from auteur writer-directors that replaces even Picture nominees that are often musicals or blockbuster films. I think The Room Next Door could be that film but the question is what movie is this replacing, Dune: Part Two or Emilia Perez. The Academy is decidedly not a fan of musicals in the screenplay category (West Side Story missed a few years ago and the last musical to be nominated for Screenplay was top-2 Best Picture contender La La Land) and Dune: Part Two is adapted from one of the most acclaimed sci-fi books of all time, so I think Emilia Perez is more likely to miss.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
Dune: Part Two
The Room Next Door
Could Jump In: Emilia Perez, Wicked, I’m Still Here, The Piano Lesson
Nothing else is entering the fold here
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Wild Robot
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Flow
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Conclave
Could Jump In: Nosferatu, Blitz
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist – CCA
Dune: Part Two – CCA
Nosferatu – CCA
Conclave – CCA
Nickel Boys – CCA
Could Jump In: Wicked – CCA, Maria, Emilia Perez
All five of Wicked, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, and Maria received nods from both the Costume Designers Guild and the Critics’ Choice Awards in the past week. That doesn’t necessarily mean any of these films are guaranteed for nominations here, but since all of them fit the mold of past nominees in this category, I think they should feel pretty confident. Conclave also received nominations from both groups but as a contemporary film it doesn’t fit the taste of a branch that prefers its period, sci-fi, and fantasy costumes.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Maria
Could Jump In: The Brutalist, Conclave
BEST EDITING
Dune: Part Two – CCA, ACE
Anora – CCA, ACE
The Brutalist – CCA
Conclave – CCA, ACE
Emilia Perez – ACE
Could Jump In: Wicked – ACE, Challengers – CCA, ACE, The Substance – ACE, September 5 – CCA
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Substance
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
A Different Man
Could Jump In: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
BEST SOUND
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
Gladiator II
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Perez
Could Jump In: Blitz, Alien: Romulus,
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Gladiator II
Mufasa: The Lion King
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Challengers
The Room Next Door
Could Jump In: The Wild Robot
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Emilia Perez
The Wild Robot
Emilia Perez
The Six Triple Eight
Sing Sing
Could Jump In: Will and Harper, Challengers,
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Emilia Perez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
Dahomey
Could Jump In: The Girl with the Needle, Flow
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Sugarcane
Daughters
No Other Land
Dahomey
Black Box Diaries
Could Jump In: Porcelain War, Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat